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Campaign notebook

Wednesday, Jun 22, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tom DeVore added the red highlighting on this piece when he posted it to Facebook and thanked the Democratic Party of Illinois for the exposure. This primary just gets weirder and weirder by the day, man…

The governor and DPI are empowering the Republican fringe. Hope that doesn’t backfire on them.

…Adding… From the Steve Kim campaign…

Illinois Democrats began sending mail pieces today in an effort to promote Steve Kim’s primary opponent, a downstate lawyer embroiled in personal lawsuits and character questions. In what has become a habit for JB Pritzker and his Democrat allies, they are meddling in another Republican primary to get the nominee who is easier to beat in November.

Steve Kim is the biggest threat to Kwame Raoul’s incumbency, and JB Pritzker knows it. An experienced attorney, Steve isn’t afraid to take on the corrupt political machine that Illinois Democrats have cultivated for decades.

* More outside money boosting Mary Miller and dinging Rodney Davis…


* 2019 story about Mary Miller’s first congressional race

Gray is one of six Republicans and four Democrats who filed for the post. One of the other Republicans is Mary Miller, wife of state Rep. Chris Miller, R-Oakland. Rep. Miller was at the Statehouse on Wednesday and had a quick answer when asked why his wife would be better for the district than Gray.

“The biggest thing is, she actually lives in the district that she’s running for,” Miller said. “That’s always a bonus. She’s lived there for 40 years and knows the people there.”

One entry in Gray’s resume is being Trump’s Illinois and Missouri state director leading up to the 2016 primaries. That didn’t sway Rep. Miller, who said living outside the district would be a political “death sentence.”

“I think the old term was carpetbagger,” he said.

Rodney Davis campaign today…

“Politician Mary Miller is a carpetbagger because she’s running in a district she doesn’t live in, and Mary’s husband Chris agrees. He attacked another Republican not too long ago for being a ‘carpetbagger’ since they didn’t live in the district, also calling it a political ‘death sentence.’ Chris Miller says a lot of things, but he’s right on this issue. Mary Miller just wants to be in Congress. She doesn’t care about her community since she’s abandoning her neighbors and most of her constituents to run somewhere else. Rodney Davis is the only Republican candidate in the 15th District who actually lives in the 15th District.” - Aaron DeGroot, Davis campaign spokesperson

* Snarky email…

Hi Rich,

Newman got endorsed by her Field Director, Ben Goldberg along with 11 other former Warren volunteers.

This could shake up the race in the closing days.

* Click here for the full report. NALEO…

The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund today released its 2022 Illinois and Chicago Latino Voter Profile, offering a comprehensive analysis of the Latino electorate in Illinois and Chicago — including demographic trends and population growth. With the Illinois Primary taking place next week on June 28, the profile examines the political factors shaping the state’s Latino electorate, such as the outcome of the 2020 Census and the recent redistricting. The profile also includes projections of how the Illinois Latino population is expected to show up to the polls for the state’s November elections.

According to the projections, more than 353,000 Latinos in Illinois will be casting ballots this November, mirroring 2018’s historic turnout numbers and marking a 62.2 percent increase from 2014. In addition, Illinois’ Latino voters are expected to be younger than non-Latino voters, with 18–24-year-olds comprising 15 percent of registered Latinos, compared to 7 percent of non-Latinos. Similarly, 25 percent of Latino registered voters are 25–34-year-olds, compared to 16 percent of non-Latinos.

“Latino candidates are poised to make history in November, with the prospect of two Latinos being elected to Illinois’ congressional delegation for the first time,” said NALEO Educational Fund CEO Arturo Vargas. “Latino turnout may build on the momentum of past political seasons like that of 2018, but this momentum will not be sustained without early and robust engagement of Latino voters by candidates and campaigns. Latinos value electoral participation and care about the people who represent them, and it is critical that those seeking their votes address the community’s needs and priorities.

Key Findings Include:

    • More than 353,000 Latinos in Illinois will cast their ballots in November 2022, marking a 62.2 percent increase from 2014.
    • The Latino share of all Illinois voters in 2022 is expected to be 7.9 percent, which mirrors the Latino share in both 2018 and 2014.
    • Twelve percent of voting-age citizens in Illinois are Latino.
    • Latino registered voters in Illinois tend to be younger than non-Latinos, with 18–24-year-olds comprising 15 percent of registered Latinos, compared to 7 percent of non-Latinos. Similarly, 25 percent of Latino registered voters are 25–34-year-olds, compared to 16 percent of non-Latinos.
    • Between 2010 and 2020, Illinois’ population decreased from 12.83 million to 12.81 million, decreasing 0.1 percent. During the same period, the state’s Latino population grew from 2 million to 2.3 million, increasing 15.3 percent. By comparison, the state’s non-Latino population decreased by 3.0 percent.
    • In 2021, 134 Latinos served in elected office in Illinois — with 87 percent serving at the local level, including county, municipal, school board, and judicial officials.

Several factors will further shape the political landscape for Illinois’ midterm elections, including the redistricting that followed Census 2020, the competitiveness of congressional and statewide contests, and the effectiveness of voter engagement efforts targeting the Latino community.

* Press release…

With less than one week left until the June 28th primary, Liz Brown-Reeves, candidate for 15th Democratic State Central Committeeman, is finishing strong with major endorsements and union support.

“There is no one in the 15th Congressional District who better represents the values of Democrats and can position our party for success during these uncertain times, and that is why I am proudly endorsing my good friend Liz Brown-Reeves for Democratic Central Committeeman,” said former State Senator Andy Manar. “I have known Liz for twenty-two years, and in that time she has fought tirelessly to get things done in the statehouse on behalf of working families and organized labor. From running campaigns to fundraising for candidates up and down the ballot, she has the experience we need right now when so much is at stake for both our party and our democracy.”

As part of his endorsement, Manar contributed $30,000 in support of Liz’s campaign.

Manar joins the long list of supporters for Liz Brown-Reeves’s campaign including:
Governor JB Pritzker
Secretary of State Jesse White
Former Congressman Jerry Costello
Assistant Majority Leader Representative Jay Hoffman
Senator Doris Turner
Former State Representative Julie Curry
UA (Plumbers & Pipefitters) Illinois PAC
IBEW Local 15
Painters District Council 14
Laborer’s (LIUNA) Midwest Union
Police Benevolent & Protective Association
Mid-America Carpenters
Chicago Land Operators & Joiners
SMART Union

“I am so humbled and excited to receive the endorsement of former Senator Manar. No one has done more for the citizens of downstate Illinois than Andy,” said Liz Brown-Reeves. “Organized labor has also been the backbone of my career and I would not be where I am today without the partnership and support of unions throughout Illinois.”

* Sad news

John Fritts, former Lee County treasurer and campaign manager for a his cousin, 74th District candidate Bradley J. Fritts, died Monday in a two-car crash in rural La Salle County near Earlville. […]

“John, who was managing Brad’s campaign for Illinois State Representative, was killed in a car accident in Earlville, IL Monday afternoon. Several family members were also in the car and Brad was sent to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries.

“Please keep the family in your prayers as they deal with this sudden tragedy. John is known best for his smile. We love him very much.”

* More…

* Nicolosi campaign accused of forging signatures of senior home residents: According to a criminal complaint filed on April 21st, five residents of the Cedarhurst Senior Living Center, 7130 Crimson Ridge Drive, are victims of aggravated identity theft against a person 60 years of age or older for signatures that appear on Nicolosi’s petition.

* Jesse Sullivan visits Peoria for ‘Save Illinois Rally’

* Illinois secretary of state Democratic primary: Valencia squares off with Giannoulias and Moore

* 27th House Democratic primary may be winner-take-all affair with no Republican filed

* Cook County Assessor Fritz Kaegi touts fairer property tax valuations; challenger Kari Steele says he’s broken reform promises, created ‘chaos’

          Click here to help buy presents for LSSI foster kids!

46 Comments
  1. - ItsMillerTime - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 1:44 pm:

    Friendly reminder to the “beware 2016” crowd that Illinois elections does not use the electoral college for Governor and Attorney General elections so Bailey/Devore need to appeal to the majority of voters to actually win


  2. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 1:48 pm:

    The red box item in the Devore piece could have been better worded to achieve the same effect and not have him trumpeting it. Success after all is a state of mind with that guy.


  3. - Big Dipper - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 1:50 pm:

    I think if the mailer said temporarily blocked the mandate it would be accurate.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 1:55 pm:

    ===The governor and DPI are empowering the Republican fringe. Hope that doesn’t backfire on them.===

    If in Illinois the ILGOP either implodes or eats itself with the fringe being the only existing opposition, you’re gonna have Bailey-type caucus leaders and Durkin types be the fringe that fear all sides.

    The bigger the megaphone the far right has, and is normalized in that party, the worse it will be politically for all.

    Im not even asking for strong bipartisan folks from both sides, I see what is happening in Missouri, as an example, and that’s not helping a single person in that state.


  5. - Just Sayin - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 1:56 pm:

    ==One entry in Gray’s resume is being Trump’s Illinois and Missouri state director leading up to the 2016 primaries. ==

    I also wonder if Gray, in the far southern parts of the old 15th, tried to pass himself off in that campaign as “somehow, some way” related to Ken Gray.


  6. - TheInvisibleMan - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:06 pm:

    “Hope that doesn’t backfire on them.”

    I think quite the contrary. By the time Bailey gets past the primary, the factions in the ILGOP will start fighting with itself - far more than now.

    Bailey is not going to be a stabilizing or unifying force for his party, and to me it seems the DPI and gov are aware of this.

    I’d be far more concerned if Illinois had an electoral college.


  7. - Stunning endorsement - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:07 pm:

    Wait, Newman put out a press release to tout the endorsement of her own field director -Ben Goldberg- and 10 other volunteers? Desperation thy name is Newman.


  8. - AC - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:10 pm:

    Every time I see or hear one of these DGA ads, I imagine them where “Conservative” was replaced with “Awesome”.

    Tom DeVore is just too awesome for Illinois. Call his office and tell him to stop being so awesome.

    Then again, to the true target audience, that’s basically the same ad.


  9. - Wrigleyville Creature - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:11 pm:

    Do Newman’s other staff endorse her as well? Or is this exclusive to just one of her staffers?


  10. - MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:12 pm:

    “You knew I was a snake when you helped me secure the GOP nomination.”

    – MrJM


  11. - fs - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:12 pm:

    The carpetbagger issue has always seemed like low hanging fruit, especially with quotes like that. It’s puzzling why the Davis campaign didn’t push it more.


  12. - SAP - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:23 pm:

    ==The governor and DPI are empowering the Republican fringe. Hope that doesn’t backfire on them.== I agree. Darren Bailey looked like an also-ran in the primary until, suddenly, he didn’t. Now with candidates like him, the garden variety hard right, homophobic, extremist, candidates are considered moderates as long as they nod in the direction of following the rule of law.


  13. - Give Me A Break - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:28 pm:

    Seen some Gray signs around Springfield that were bracketed on each side by Trump signs. Not sure what happened but the Trump signs suddenly came down over the weekend.


  14. - Amalia - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:32 pm:

    Newman. remember from Seinfeld in the worst way. now remember from Illinois politics in the worst way.


  15. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:34 pm:

    =I think quite the contrary. By the time Bailey gets past the primary, the factions in the ILGOP will start fighting with itself - far more than now.=

    Meh…I think once the primary is over you will see things settle in to more standard operations. The party faithful will vote for the R candidate or they won’t come out (probably the real danger). They will all be pretty focused on trying to defeat JB and friends.

    DeVore never ewon that suit. Final adjudication was a dismissal IIRC.


  16. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:34 pm:

    There’s always a risk in trying to pick your opponent- Jimmy Carter thought Ronald Reagan would be the easiest to beat- but I think in this case, when Republicans themselves are desperate to contain Bailey and DeVore, the risk is minimized.


  17. - Voting 2022 - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:39 pm:

    Rodney Davis claiming that Miller has been abandoning constituents is just rich. The new seat has more of Miller’s current than Davis’; although, a plurality are new to both Davis and Miller. Yet, Davis decides to abandon a constituents he’s represented for the past 9.5 years in Champaign, Decatur, Edwardsville just cuz the seat was drawn to be more Democratic. He’s run tough campaigns against progressives and won when everyone said he’d lose. He’s literally the perfect fit for the new 13th.


  18. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:41 pm:

    ==Yet, Davis decides to abandon a constituents he’s represented for the past 9.5 years in Champaign, Decatur, Edwardsville just cuz the seat was drawn to be more Democratic.==

    Well, but also because he doesn’t live in that district.


  19. - Voting 2022 - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:43 pm:

    Wanted to add that Robin Kelly bragged about drawing the map so that Mary Miller will “lose.” They could’ve easily shifted a precinct so Miller would be in the new 15th but didn’t. It’s not like she’s loving hundreds of miles away and shopping for a seat. See examples such as Tom McClintock of CA or Trey Hollingsworth of IN.


  20. - Voting 2022 - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:45 pm:

    Living in an area can mean many things. One can live forever in a district or town but still never be involved in anything.


  21. - Just Sayin - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 3:08 pm:

    ==The carpetbagger issue has always seemed like low hanging fruit, especially with quotes like that. It’s puzzling why the Davis campaign didn’t push it more.==

    Same with Tim Butler’s campaign in 95th House re: Kent Gray. He’s a Leland Grove resident, and according to the new maps Leland Grove is surprisingly in Sue Scherer’s redrawn 96th.


  22. - TheInvisibleMan - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 3:26 pm:

    “They will all be pretty focused on trying to defeat JB and friends.”

    There’s the rub though. That’s actually one of the main things I’m taking into consideration. If there was such an ability to be focused it would have shown itself long before now, and the ILGOP wouldn’t be what it is right now.

    The current ILGOP has to keep moving quickly from angst to angst to keep the ‘feeling’ alive. Focus is antithetical to the operation.

    It seems like a simple thing to just say all they have to do is focus, but for the ILGOP it’s the equivalent of asking a democratic candidate who won the primary to suddenly start spouting Q conspiracies for the last stretch into the general election.


  23. - thoughts matter - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 3:33 pm:

    Is anyone actually reading those mailers? We probably get 3-5 a day. They all go directly in the trash without being read.


  24. - Baloneymous - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:05 pm:

    ===Is anyone actually reading those mailers?===

    Don’t read mailers, don’t watch the tv ads, radio ads, internet ads, Facebook ads. And I could care less about the signs that litter the yards and roads. Waste of money and resources in my book. But it keeps printers, graphic artists, delivery drivers, and postal workers employed. I’m ok with that.


  25. - Blake - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:13 pm:

    The mailer makes me angry at Pritzker. It ain’t like disagreeing about politics such as disagreement with Rauner about labor law. It’s rewarding a severe denial of American’s right to life.


  26. - Blake - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:18 pm:

    And I say that as someone who also thinks Pritzker held on to masks too long & got yelled at by commenters here about the mistake of extending the school mask mandate into the Fall 2021 semester.


  27. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:24 pm:

    - Blake -

    Maybe re-read both things you wrote.

    Thanks.


  28. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:27 pm:

    Looks like most of Mary miller’s support is from out of state like Washington DC (I thought she thinks that is the swamp?).

    She is a real homegrown candidate alright.

    I mean aside from her upbringing in Naperville and never working her district ior answering any questions.


  29. - Blake - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:28 pm:

    There’s a huge difference between before widespread vaccine availability and after widespread vaccine availability


  30. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:29 pm:

    =Rauner about labor law. It’s rewarding a severe denial of American’s right to life.=

    You mean the pro-choice Rauner that signed a bill expanding access and support for abortions in Illinois?

    Maybe don’t apply for MENSA just yet.


  31. - So_Ill - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:31 pm:

    ==This could shake up the race in the closing days.==

    This is what desperation looks like.


  32. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:32 pm:

    ==severe denial of American’s right to life==

    What?


  33. - Blake - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:37 pm:

    There’s a lot more room for reasonable people to disagree about abortion than there was about some of what we were facing in 2020.


  34. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:42 pm:

    ==for reasonable people to disagree==

    Says the guy who said this:

    ==severe denial of American’s right to life==

    Reasoned that is not.


  35. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:43 pm:

    === There’s a lot more room for reasonable people to disagree about abortion than there was about some of what we were facing in 2020.===

    Not after a SCOTUS ruling


  36. - Blake - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:48 pm:

    If you’re talking future tense, that’s false. The expected SCOTUS ruling turns abortion policy more toward the legislative process.


  37. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:49 pm:

    ===If you’re talking future tense, that’s false.===

    * Trigger Laws enter the chat.


  38. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:50 pm:

    ==more toward the legislative process==

    And we’ve already seen what that process looks like and how far it’s being pushed. There’s model legislation out there being pushed on states by a pro life group making things surrounding abortion criminal. Not a lot of reasoned activities there.


  39. - Blake - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:53 pm:

    Trigger laws are part of the legislative process. Beyond that I was talking about people having reasonable disagreement.
    You 2 are underestimating how much room there is for people to disagree with you on abortion and be reasonable persons.


  40. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:57 pm:

    ==and be reasonable persons==

    I just happen to disagree with your definition of “reasonable.” I’ve seen nothing “reasonable” thus far in response to the potential reversal of Roe v. Wade. When you’ve got states trying to criminalize activities not only within their own state but what their citizens do in other states as well there is nothing about that that is reasonable.


  41. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 5:00 pm:

    ===are===

    Were

    Past tense


  42. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 5:00 pm:

    ==Politician Mary Miller is a carpetbagger ==

    That’s better than their goofy ads that claim Miller isn’t a “true conservative.” I’m not sure how much more conservative she can get. She’s already scary enough as it is.


  43. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 5:03 pm:

    ===I’ve seen nothing “reasonable” thus far in response to the potential reversal of Roe v. Wade.===

    You hold a minority position, as a majority would not like to see Roe overturned.

    It’s unreasonable to think limiting one’s rights is “reasonable”

    Specific to Roe and abortion, and only towards that, losing the right to the choices of one’s body, what daylight is there?

    The silence of Illinois Republicans, as a chorus… very loud.


  44. - Old IL Dude - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 5:10 pm:

    Haven’t seen neither hide nor hare from Newman. Hopefully this trend continues.


  45. - AnnieH - Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 9:58 pm:

    It was August 1980 and I came waltzing into my boss’s office to say how delighted I was that Ronald Reagan was the Republican nominee because who was ever going to vote for that clown? He called me up short, explaining that we always want the best possible person on the other side because they may win. He told me that when he ran for Senate from Wisconsin in 1952 there were Democrats who told him they’d supported Joe McCarthy in the primary because McCarthy was weakened and would be easy to beat. More recently, there was way too much gloating among the Democrats when Trump got the nomination in 2016. Playing with fire, indeed.


  46. - Candy Dogood - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 8:13 am:

    Late to the party, but the Democrats throwing money behind Republican candidates is not a responsible use of those political contributions. Pritzker and the rest of the state wides should have no issue with beating any of the GOP candidates and throwing those funds behind the candidates that are the most likely to be a lunatic isn’t a super effective use of those funds.

    That money - and the ad buys aren’t cheap - could have made a big difference in a congressional race or three or in potentially dozens of legislative races if we look outside of the state.

    I’m not the big money donor that I might like to be, but I don’t have any interest in making a contribution to an organization that is going to use my campaign contribution to effectively promote, raise the name ID, or raise the profile or positively impact the primary, thereby granting a better platform to the Tom Devores or Darren Bailey’s of the world. I’ll spare the labels that best apply to their friends and allies that quote Hitler and declare war on their way to storm the Capitol, but no matter how clever someone pretends this is the impact is the exact opposite of the reason why I am engaged in politics in the first place.

    It also doesn’t bode well historically when you consider that Hindenburg thought appointing Hitler chancellor was going to lead to result in him losing popularity and the continued decline of Nazi influence in Germany. Whoopsie daisy.

    Whoever is the brain trust behind this idea has mistaken a lack of professional ethics and a lack of social responsibility with a clever campaign strategy. I don’t know any Democratic donor that has ever openly wanted their money to promote bigotry because someone thinks a bigot is easier to beat in primary.

    They can pretend like this is normal messaging that occurs during your opponents primary, but I think we know better. The campaign professionals behind this should never work for a progressive or Democratic candidate again.

    This is real life. Not a fantasy board game. Elevating the profile of someone that spews hateful rhetoric can contribute to some very negative impacts on the targets of that hate. Donors should be asking some questions about this.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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