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Campaign notebook

Thursday, Jul 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a longtime subscriber and Republican…

1. Heading into this cycle, regardless of all the convos about downstate and such, the suburbs still hold the pathway for a statewide GOP to win and since 2014, that pathway has gotten extremely more narrow.

2. By most modeling scenarios, to win statewide - assuming past trends hold - a GOP candidate is going to need to not only win DuPage County, but win with a pretty decent plurality. Past models would say 57%-61%.

3. The current trend in DuPage is not the GOP’s friend. And I know primary ballots cast are not necessarily a predictor of general election trends, but they do tell a story.

    2014: GOP Primary ballots cast for gov: 92,386, Dem Primary ballots cast for gov 15,122
    - Rauner gets 61% of vote in DuPage County in General Election against Quinn.

    2018: GOP Primary ballots cast for gov: 72,204, Dem Primary ballots cast for gov: 82,954
    - JB defeats Rauner in General Election in DuPage 48%-46%

    2022: GOP Primary ballots cast for gov: 69,443, Dem Primary ballots cast for gov: 71,693

Personally, I had thought with all the talk of GOP resurgence and an intense GOP primary at the top of the ticket that GOP ballots cast would significantly surpass Dem ballots cast in DuPage, it simply wasn’t the case.

I know everyone says a wave is coming, and I don’t discount it, but there seems to be a lot of work that needs to be done to get a DuPage environment closer to 2014. Winning DuPage isn’t enough to win statewide, you really need to run up the score and trendlines don’t seem to be heading towards a significant GOP spread in Dupage right now. DuPage has become a swing/Lean R county and that creates a ton of challenges for statewide candidates. It really mirrors what happened in Lake County in the late 90’s.

Maybe this makes sense or maybe I’m entirely off.

Thoughts?

* DeVore claims victory

Students and staff at universities and community colleges no longer have to prove they’re vaccinated or test for COVID-19 under modified orders from Gov. J.B. Pritzker.

The attorney who sued over the mandates is claiming victory.

Pritzker’s office on Wednesday announced modified COVID-19 executive orders issued in August 2021 for all K-12 staff, college staff and students and workers in the medical industry to vaccinate or test. The updated order drops the vaccine and testing mandate in higher ed.

Attorney Thomas DeVore, who’s also the GOP candidate for attorney general in the November election, sued the governor and several colleges over the mandate June 22.

“It’s my opinion that given that these colleges were in the position where they had to answer our lawsuit within the next week or two, the governor issued this modified executive order to try to render this lawsuit moot,” DeVore told The Center Square. […]

DeVore still has a case pending against vaccine or testing mandates for K-12 teachers, which remains in place.

If they had dropped the K-12 mandates, I might have been more inclined to agree with him.

* Every vote counts. WQAD

Just over two weeks after the Illinois primary election that took place on June 28, Gregg Johnson was confirmed Wednesday, July 13 as the Democratic nominee for the state’s District 72 House of Representative seat.

The Democratic primary election night results for District 72 had Gregg Johnson taking the lead with 2,830 votes and Thurgood Brooks coming in second with 2,802 votes, a 28-vote difference. […]

The Rock Island County Clerk’s Office’s recount confirmed Johnson’s lead, with a total of 2,843 votes. Brooks followed closely behind with 2,820 - just 23 votes shy of Johnson.

* Gawker interviews the person behind Socialists for Pritzker

He doesn’t look or sound like [a billionaire] at all. He’s a big Midwestern boy who doesn’t speak in a snotty, snooty, or overly intellectual manner; it’s easy to forget that he’s a member of the American aristocracy. You can contrast that with someone like [Michael] Bloomberg — when he ran, that man was just dripping with so much contempt for ordinary people. But when you hear J.B. speak, you can tell he doesn’t view you as an ant and he would never try to ban your extra large soda.

* Treasurer Frerichs…

We found $45,000 in unclaimed property that belonged to the American Cancer Society.

It is a common story for our office that includes a heroine, the best of intentions, a little miscommunication, and proactive work by our staff.

Diane Koszyk lived in Elmwood Park, near Chicago. She was a public servant who helped people in the county circuit court clerk’s office. She beat cancer once, ovarian cancer, but could not beat the stomach cancer that followed. She died in 2017 at the age of 78.

During her years here, she set aside a bit of money that she eventually earmarked for the American Cancer Society. However, when she passed, her wishes were not immediately known. It’s not that JP Morgan Chase, where she did this banking, did anything wrong. In fact, this scenario is all-too common.

A person has a banking relationship. The person also has final wishes. For whatever reason, the two are not reconciled and the money eventually is turned over to the Illinois State Treasurer’s Office as unclaimed property.

Unclaimed property comes in all forms such as forgotten bank accounts, unpaid life insurance benefits, or a refund check mailed to the wrong address. Today, an estimated one-in-four adults who search ICash find money, and the average amount is $1,000. You can search your name, or the name of your business, or church, by clicking here.

* Fran Spielman

The brother of indicted Ald. Edward Burke (14th) on Wednesday urged the City Council dean to retire from politics next year rather than risk defeat in a ward redrawn to exclude his most favorable precincts.

“I hope he does what is best for them as a family: To take care of his health number one. To engage with his grandchildren,” said former state Rep. Dan Burke, D-Chicago.

“Do the math. Seventy-eight years old. Come on. When is enough enough? … They’ve had a long run. It’s not insulting to say there’s an end to everything. I would just hope that they would be happy in their later years engaging with their family.”

* NRCC…

Hi there –

Gas prices in Illinois are nearly 50 cents higher than the national average.

While working for Governor Pritzker, Nikki Budzinski supported a plan that doubled Illinois’ gas tax to 38 cents – giving Illinois the 2nd highest gas tax in the nation.

NRCC Comment: “Nikki Budzinski has already made the lives of Illinois families worse. Imagine what she could do if elected to Congress.” – NRCC Spokeswoman Courtney Parella

* Daily Herald

First lady Jill Biden’s comparison of Hispanics to “breakfast tacos” in a speech earlier this week has drawn the ire of the suburban Republican running for Illinois’ 11th Congressional District seat.

Catalina Lauf, a Woodstock resident who is Hispanic, seized on Biden’s comment for a fundraising email sent to followers Wednesday.

The subject line of the email proclaims: “This is just insulting.”

“Democrats have spent years taking the Hispanic community for granted,” reads the email from Lauf, whose mother immigrated to the U.S. from Guatemala in the 1980s. “They are so disconnected from the people they claim to represent that reduce us to stereotypes.”

Does that means she’s now woke? I can’t keep up with this.

       

48 Comments
  1. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 2:24 pm:

    ==I know everyone says a wave is coming, and I don’t discount it==

    The thing about waves is that if you’re far enough ashore you don’t notice them. That may be where Pritzker is.


  2. - SweetLou86 - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 2:27 pm:

    On DuPage Cty - I do also think it’s… funny? interesting? that Delia Ramirez absolutely TROUNCED Gil Villegas there, in FACT doing better than she did in the district as a whole, despite everyone assuming the suburbs were going to go for the moderate. Very small sample size of voters of course, so I don’t think it’s particularly telling of any larger trend, but still funny/interesting.


  3. - TheInvisibleMan - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 2:40 pm:

    ==Personally, I had thought with all the talk of GOP resurgence==

    Maybe spending the past 6 years convincing your own voters to move out of state was a bad idea?

    I’m no longer surprised at the self-destructive nature of the republican party.


  4. - Baloneymous - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 2:42 pm:

    ===NRCC Comment: “Nikki Budzinski has already made the lives of Illinois families worse. Imagine what she could do if elected to Congress.” – NRCC Spokeswoman Courtney Parella===

    Imagine what die-hard Trump-supporter Darren Bailey, who’s absolute loyalty to a man who said an election was stolen and then tried to violently overthrow the government, who’s obsession for guns and AR-15s and brushing of a mass shooting because it interfered with his parade, who’s unwavering opposition to a woman’s right to choose even in cases of rape and incest, who calls the 3rd largest city in the United States a “hellhole”, who once called for Illinois to break away from Chicago and form its own state, who fought wearing a mask during a global pandemic and could have spread a deadly virus to his co-legislators and staff, imagine what he could do if elected Governor.


  5. - The Captain - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 2:42 pm:

    CLF placed $125 million in fall early reservations, none in IL-13.

    The NRCC placed $52 million in fall early reservations, none in IL-13.

    Press releases are free.


  6. - JS Mill - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 2:49 pm:

    New DeVore tattoo suggestion “Born To Lose”


  7. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 2:51 pm:

    Danny Burke ain’t wrong… your Republican friend who sent the email, they are someone I could share a beer with and rationally look at things.

    Lauf is insane to her own dishonesty of who she is and what actually “offends”, let alone offends her.


  8. - Lefty Lefty - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 2:51 pm:

    More local version of the District 72 House race - Barb Wojnicki apparently lost her primary bid to an extreme right candidate (holding a Let’s Go Brandon banner on his website) by 11 votes out of 1,974 ballots cast.

    Also: turnout = 12.7%

    Related but different topic: I wonder how many here at CapFax go and vote? 87.3% of eligible voters in this district couldn’t be bothered but I bet some of them spout off on Twitter and Facebook about politics.


  9. - Commissar Gritty - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 2:55 pm:

    This has been the most frustrating Campaign Notebook segment in months. Just banging my head into my desk after every paragraph


  10. - vern - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:03 pm:

    Your subscriber’s analysis looks right to me. Republicans have lost ground in the suburbs through a combination of demographic change and Trump/far-right alienation of moderates.

    The demographic change happened in two ways: reliable Republican voters either moved or passed away, and were then replaced with young, new American families trying to get their kids into the best schools. The suburbs are far more diverse and far more dense than they were in 2014.

    Republicans need to find a magic combination of winning non-white and non-Christian votes, keeping their base from moving to Florida, and winning back voters who left the party because of Trump. Bailey and Devore at the top of the ticket, abortion and guns crowding out inflation worries, and a possible pre-midterm Trump campaign announcement are basically the opposite of that combination.


  11. - Benniefly2 - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:03 pm:

    A few weeks ago I was in Bloomington for a wedding. Gas prices in Bloomington were $0.60 to $0.70 per gallon cheaper than in DuPage County earlier that day. Local gas taxes and the cost of summer blends in the Chicago area can’t account for that type of price discrepancy. I know the Illinois gas tax was raised a while ago, but clearly something else is going on here.


  12. - Big Dipper - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:06 pm:

    ==Maybe spending the past 6 years convincing your own voters to move out of state was a bad idea?==

    It was revealed in the Trib today that Kass moved to Indiana two years ago. Good riddance. Yet he still opines on Chicago and Illinois politics lol. I remember he made a fuss when he moved to Chicago from the burbs but was quiet as a church mouse about scurrying to Indiana.


  13. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:15 pm:

    == I know everyone says a wave is coming, and I don’t discount it ==

    I think there will be a wave at the National level, but not necessarily in Illinois.


  14. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:17 pm:

    == imagine what he could do if elected Governor. ==

    Realistically, not that much damage with a heavily Democratic Legislature.


  15. - PublicServant - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:24 pm:

    Nothing is more staged than Republican outrage. “Breakfast tacos? That’s it, I’m kickin’ in 50!”.


  16. - Vote Quimby - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:24 pm:

    ==now woke? I can’t keep up with this==

    I think being awake/woke is a good thing. It beats regressing into the past.


  17. - Ashland Adam - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:25 pm:

    Surprised that Dan Burke would need to urge his brother publicly. At the end of the article - he says something to the effect of - ‘we don’t talk about these things with each other…’ Paraphrasing here. Don’t have the article handy.

    But - Brother Ed was Dan Burke’s committeeman all those years when Dan served as a state rep. How could they not talk about these things? Seems odd.


  18. - Buford Pusser - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:25 pm:

    Too bad about Thurgood Brooks. He was involved in police accountability for the corn fed good old boys in Rock Island. Like the fact that Rock Island police chief Jeff Venhuizen retired, and is now the chief deputy for Whiteside county under Sheriff John Booker.


  19. - Concerned Observer - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:31 pm:

    So many thoughts, but:

    1) Republicans in this state don’t need a wave. They need a tsunami.

    2) The DuPage primary number is even more embarrassing when you consider that at least 33% of Aurora is in that county, and that city’s mayor was a prime contender for the top spot. Cutting and running the way Griff did probably sent a terrible message. Maybe they come back for the general, maybe not.

    3) The DuPage comparison that strikes me most is 2014 v 2018. Incumbent D Gov both times. The current guy got 56K more votes than the older guy. That shows that no matter how much wishcasting Republicans do about how JB has been “terrible”, rank and file suburbanites ain’t buying it. And now they have stuck themselves with a messenger who is, ah, unlikely to persuasively change the message.


  20. - Baloneymous - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:36 pm:

    ===Realistically, not that much damage with a heavily Democratic Legislature.===

    Agreed but I would say the same about Nikki in Congress with 434 other members especially if the Republicans regain control.

    And I also wouldn’t compare high gas prices to the damage Trump has done and the fact Bailey still 110% supports him.


  21. - B Team - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:36 pm:

    You’re spot on in DuPage and comparing it Lake. I’m not sure any Republican running statewide wins here, maybe Brady but that’s a stretch without money. I personally do not see a red wave this fall, the gerrymandering is what helps the Republicans, that’s it. When you factor in abortion, guns, and trump that benefits the dems.


  22. - TNR - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:37 pm:

    The DuPage turnout numbers are interesting, particularly when compared to 2014 when the gubernatorial primary dynamics were similar: hot GOP race and token opposition to an incumbent on the Dem side.

    For giggles, I looked up suburban Cook: In ‘14, 126,278 votes were cast in the GOP guv primary, and only 98,445 were cast in the Dem guv primary. This year in suburban Cook, the GOP turnout dropped to 98,445 total votes cast in the guv primary and conversely, turnout went up surprisingly big on the Dem side to 212,654 votes cast.

    Don’t have time to check the other suburban counties, but based on these two, the trend from 2014 til now is even worse for the GOP than I thought. Yes, the national headwinds will help them, but this is a huge hole to dig out of.


  23. - SAP - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:38 pm:

    ==2022: GOP Primary ballots cast for gov: 69,443, Dem Primary ballots cast for gov: 71,693==

    Lot of Dem ballots for an uncontested (or not seriously contested) primary


  24. - Commissar Gritty - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 3:55 pm:

    Alright, I just listened to the Jill Biden clip. That is HEAVILY taken out of context. She was comparing regions by what they were famous for, and San Antonio is famous for breakfast tacos.

    A local education advocate Rodrigo Bravo said, “Because breakfast tacos are a community identifier for San Antonio. We’re literally known for that, like NYC and bodegas, and Miami and blossoms. It makes sense actually.

    Please Rich, may we please have that crumb of context added to your earlier story?


  25. - A-4 - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 4:09 pm:

    Trying to figure if those primary turnout numbers are predictive of what could happen in legislative races this fall. Tier 1 GA races are usually determined by swing voters who don’t vote much in primaries, so gotta be careful not to give to much weight to this. But the GOP clearly has a fast shrinking (disappearing?) base in the ‘burbs, requiring them to win over an unprecedented percentage of persuadable voters in the fall to flip seats. Of course, the opposite is true downstate, there just aren’t as many Dem seats to target.


  26. - Jump - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 4:19 pm:

    More mixed messages from jb on covid, and your wonder why there’s a lack of compliance…

    If they had dropped the K-12 mandates, I might have been more inclined to agree with him.

    So its ” safer” for higher ed than k-12? The highly contagious new variants fauci just warned us about know what grade you’re in? Simple,its all or nothing…stop cherry picking..covid don’t


  27. - Nick - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 4:35 pm:

    The subscriber makes a pretty fair comment.

    It’s less that we *for sure* know who DuPage will vote for or by what margin. But it’s still a signal that the shift the county saw at the state level between 2014-2018 isn’t exactly going away, which is a very bad sign if you’re a statewide Republican candidate.


  28. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 4:38 pm:

    1) DuPage leans Blue now, and it’s unwinnable for a pro-Trump conservative. Even conservative Republicans in DuPage can’t defend pro-NRA Bailey.

    2) DeVore can claim victory all he wants. No one will remember or care two weeks from now.

    3) Thurgood Brooks is the future of the Democratic Party.

    4) Agree with Dan. MJM once said “In politics, what matters is whether you won your last election.” I often say “The two best days in a politician’s career are the day they first win and the day they retire.” A lot of guys outside of politics too don’t know what they will do if they retire. Write a book, man.

    5) Gas prices are down 50 cents from a month ago. the GOP is beating a dead horse. Also, it’s tough to argue that Biden, Pritzker, and someone who has never held public office are all responsible for higher gas prices.

    6) Lauf will do much better than expected. Dems should not fall asleep at the wheel on that one. Her strength is obvious, I think her weakness is professional women. Women who actually worked hard to get where they are usually are pretty unkind to the Gap Store manager who thinks she can run America.


  29. - Retired SURS Employee - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 5:00 pm:

    Many years ago, the late Professor Milton Rakove authored a monograph with a Political Science Professor from either Loyola or Mundelein (I regret I don’t remember the co-author’s name, although I remember that he was a priest), in which they predicted that as Chicagoans moved into the suburbs the Republican majority would increasingly fade away. They were right on the money. Indeed, my wife and I fit that very profile.


  30. - Boomer remover - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 5:05 pm:

    5) Gas prices are down 50 cents from a month ago. the GOP is beating a dead horse. Also, it’s tough to argue that Biden, Pritzker, and someone who has never held public office are all responsible for higher gas prices.

    Wowwww yet atill over 5 a gallon…what a relief


  31. - Yvonne - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 5:06 pm:

    ==DuPage has become a swing/Lean R county and that creates a ton of challenges for statewide candidates.==

    I beg to differ. Thanks to Trump, DuPage is now solidly Blue. Bailey will not reverse the trend. With the one and only moderate Republican money source abandoning ship, the wave will in November will be Democratic irrespective of Biden’s numbers.


  32. - It’s Me Again, Margaret - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 5:13 pm:

    Would love to see this as a Question of the Day sometime… If Carhartt was Rauner’s costume dujour for pandering to downstate voters, what schtick will Bailey use to appeal to DuPage and the other collars?


  33. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 5:16 pm:

    ===yet atill over 5 a gallon…what a relief ===

    Election day isn’t until November.


  34. - Regular democrat - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 5:22 pm:

    Bailey sure not the guy to bring Du page back to the R column.


  35. - Henry Francis - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 5:25 pm:

    I thought Burke’s quote was interesting at the end when he said:

    “They’ve had a long run. It’s not insulting to say there’s an end to everything. I would just hope that they would be happy in their later years engaging with their family.”

    They’ve . . . they . . . their . . . their

    I really doubt brother Eddie had updated his pronouns, so is Dan suggesting the Honorable is part of the “not letting go problem”?


  36. - West Side the Best Side - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 5:49 pm:

    Retired SURS - I have a vague recollection of that monograph and I’m sure the coauthor was Fr. Joseph Small, S.J. from Loyola’s Poli Sci department. I took classes from both gentlemen while at Loyola. Both great teachers and very insightful about local politics


  37. - Nick - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 5:59 pm:

    ===Election day isn’t until November===

    Plenty of time for things to get better or worse


  38. - Been There - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 6:05 pm:

    =====Realistically, not that much damage with a heavily Democratic Legislature.=====
    While I am not hoping for a Bailey win it would be interesting to see if he would use executive orders. You know those ones he has been screaming about for the past couple years.


  39. - Been There - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 6:06 pm:

    ====But - Brother Ed was Dan Burke’s committeeman all those years when Dan served as a state rep. How could they not talk about these things? Seems odd.====
    While I really like Dan he can also seem a little odd sometimes.


  40. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 6:11 pm:

    ===How could they not talk about these things? Seems odd.===

    The best way to have the USA look at you if you’re Danny Burke is say to a reporter “oh, yeah, I talk to my brother all the time about his trial and stuff, constantly”

    Dan knows nuttin’ ‘bout nuttin’


  41. - Torco Sign - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 6:34 pm:

    Speaking of the suburbs and gas prices, it’ll be interesting to see if Republicans pound the Lake County Board (led by Democrat Sandy Hart) for their gas tax or if Republicans go off the rails about other issues.


  42. - Unionman - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 6:37 pm:

    Wonder how competitive the house and Senate Republican primaries were comparing 2014, 2018, 2022.


  43. - Retired SURS Employee - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 7:07 pm:

    =West Side the Best Side=

    Yes! It was Fr. Joseph Small! Thanks for the recollection. By the way, Milton Rakove was my academic advisor at Chicago Circle.


  44. - The Way I See It - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 7:25 pm:

    I think Dupage is currently represented 100% in Congress by Democrats. It is pretty darn blue.


  45. - Billions - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 7:37 pm:

    “A little odd sometimes” that’s an understatement


  46. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Jul 14, 22 @ 7:54 pm:

    My theory is that Ed assumes everyone, including his brother, is wearing a wire. Ed isn’t going to talk to anyone anymore.


  47. - Chris in ChiTown - Friday, Jul 15, 22 @ 9:32 am:

    About three and a half years ago, I was in a get together & we talked about Ald. Burke as we were leaving for the night. One participant stated one detail that Spielman mentioned at the end of the article that seemed quite serious. It is probably better for Ed Burke to not be a candidate next year and to make a plea with the Federal government, so he can spend time with his grandchildren & other family members.


  48. - Da big bad wolf - Friday, Jul 15, 22 @ 9:50 am:

    ===Alright, I just listened to the Jill Biden clip. That is HEAVILY taken out of context. She was comparing regions by what they were famous for, and San Antonio is famous for breakfast tacos.===

    That’s funny. I didn’t know Jill Biden was running for the 11th congressional district. Why is Lauf speaking about this? Who cares?


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