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Campaign notebook

Tuesday, Aug 30, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Victory Geek, 512 voters called 8/25-28, automated (90%) and live calls (just 10%), MoE is ±4.3 percent

…Adding… 48 percent of the respondents for this poll were in Downstate and just 19 percent were in Cook County. In the last election, 36 percent of the votes cast for governor were from Downstate and 39 percent were cast in Cook County. So, that huge difference would tend to skew the poll even more Republican. Not good. At all.

Duckworth: 58%
Salvi: 35%
3rd party/Undecided 7%

Pritzker: 56%
Bailey: 38%
3rd/Undecided: 6%

Giannoulias: 55%
Brady: 37%
3rd/Undecided: 8%

Frerichs: 54%
Demmer: 33%
3rd/Undecided: 13%

Legislature Matchup
Democrat: 55%
Republican: 34%
3rd/Undecided: 11%

Not really sure about this pollster, but 18-23 point leads across the board and every Dem above 50 is pretty wild.

* Um, is Steve even a Republican these days?…


* ILGOP…

Former Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias just can’t seem to shake his past as he attempts his reboot. It’s been twelve years since Giannoulias left the public eye. As he continues his rehabilitation tour hoping voters will forget about his scandal-laden past, let’s recap his greatest hits.

First, there was his mismanagement of Illinois’ college loans savings programs, causing families to lose millions. According to NBC Chicago from January 6, 2010:

“Bright Start was supposed to be Alexi Giannoulias’ shining achievement. Instead, the beleaguered fund, which lost more than $150 million through risky Oppenheimer investments, is radiating trouble for the Illinois State Treasurer and his Senate campaign.”

Then, there were the loans to mobsters when he was a Senior Loan Officer of Broadway Bank. According to the Chicago Tribune from April 1, 2010:

“The family bank of Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias loaned a pair of Chicago crime figures about $20 million during a 14-month period when Giannoulias was a senior loan officer, according to a Tribune examination that provides new details about the bank’s relationship with the convicted felons. Broadway Bank had already lent millions to Michael Giorango when he and a new business partner, Demitri Stavropoulos, came to the bank in mid-2004. Although both men were preparing to serve federal prison terms, the bank embarked on a series of loans to them.”

As if that wasn’t bad enough, Broadway Bank was later seized by the feds. According to Reuters from April 23, 2010:

“Regulators on Friday seized a Chicago bank owned by the family of the Democratic nominee running for the Senate seat once held by President Barack Obama. Broadway Bank was among seven Illinois banks whose failure was announced on Friday. U.S. regulators have seized 15 banks in the past two weeks, as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp ratchets up efforts to clean up the banking industry.”

“Trouble seems to follow Alexi Giannoulias wherever he goes, and it never seems to be his fault if you ask him,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Don Tracy. “The Giannoulias family bank loaned money to mobsters when he was a Senior Loan Officer there, and Giannoulias as Treasurer lost millions in college savings loans. Putting Alexi Giannoulias in charge of the Illinois Secretary of State’s Office, where he’d be in charge of 4,000 state jobs, would be like putting an arsonist in charge of the fire department.”

* Press release…

This morning, Nikki Budzinski, candidate for Congress in Illinois’ 13th Congressional District, released her plans for middle class tax relief and to fight inflation. From ideas expanding the child tax credit to investing in union apprenticeship programs, Budzinskiis focused on attainable solutions that will bring down costs for working families.

Budzinski made the following statement: “There are some short-term solutions to inflation that Congress needs to act on today to provide immediate relief to working people. But ultimately, this is not a problem that occurred overnight.”

“Decades of Democrats and Republicans have contributed by allowing our jobs to be shipped overseas, exporting manufacturing from America to China, and allowing China to become the global economic leader that America used to be. In addition to short term measures, I will fight for long term, bipartisan solutions that will increase American manufacturing so we can start to make things at home again.”

    • Repeal the Trump tax cuts that benefit the super-rich over working people
    • Extend the child tax cut for working families
    • Cap the cost of life-saving drugs for everyone like insulin at $35
    • Invest in union apprenticeship programs to promote alternatives to a 4-year college degree and a path to a debt-free, high-paying trades career
    • Lower the price at the pump by implementing a year-round E-15 blend to provide sustained relief at the pump and support Illinois farmers
    • Enact a windfall profit tax on oil and gas companies to make sure oil companies aren’t profiting at our expense

* Same district…

Farmer trustees representing county Farm Bureaus in the 13th Congressional District will be endorsing Regan Deering for Congress with a three-stop tour in Champaign, Sangamon and Madison counties. Local leaders meeting as trustees for Illinois Farm Bureau ACTIVATOR® – the organization’s political action committee –endorsed Deering after interviewing both candidates in the race.

What: Three Stop Media Tour to announce Farm Bureau Endorsement of Regan Deering
Who: Candidate for the 13th Congressional District Regan Deering and farmer trustees
When: Tuesday, August 30, 2022

* Meanwhile

The Republican candidate running for Illinois U.S. House District 17 received a major endorsement on Monday, Aug. 29, ahead of a tour through rural parts of the state.

Esther Joy King, who is running against Democrat Eric Sorensen in the 2022 midterm elections, was endorsed by the Illinois Farm Bureau’s political committee ACTIVATOR.

The organization has a long history of supporting Republican candidates, and, this year, has also endorsed IL District 16 rep. candidate Darin LaHood and many other conservative bids for the Illinois state legislature.

“It’s truly an honor to be endorsed by the Farm Bureau activator,” said King. “I sat in a room being grilled by a lot of farmers, and for them to put their trust in me, it’s pretty extraordinary. It’s my goal and my ambition to be a champion for agriculture in Washington, D.C.”

…Adding… Press release…

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers(IAM) Districts and Locals in Illinois have raised $100,000 to support an Illinois constitutional guarantee of workers’ rights to organize and bargain collectively. The Illinois Workers’ Rights Amendment would be one of four such guarantees enshrined in state constitutions, but Illinois Amendment 1 goes a step further than other states by also banning anti-union “right-to-work” laws.

The IAM is joining the Illinois AFL-CIO and legislative allies to promote the passage of the pro-worker ballot initiative, which will be on the ballot for Illinois voters on Nov. 8, 2022. To amend the state constitution, 60% of voters will need to vote “yes.”

The proposed amendment would add a new section to the Illinois Bill of Rights, guaranteeing workers the fundamental rights to organize and bargain collectively and to negotiate wages, hours and working conditions. It would also prohibit any law from being passed that interferes with, negates, or diminishes the right of employees to organize and bargain collectively over their wages, hours, and other terms and conditions of employment and workplace safety.The pro-worker efforts under Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker are in stark contrast to former Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, who failed in his effort to pass a statewide anti-union “right-to-work” law to weaken unions in 2015. At that time, Rauner declared that Illinois cities, counties, towns and villages could enact “right-to-work” laws. State courts threw that measure out.

“IAM members in Illinois, along with our allies in labor and state government, are leading the charge to make the state more worker-friendly,” said IAM Midwest Territory General Vice President Steve Galloway. “It’s our hope that other states will also make efforts to put workers’ rights at the forefront of their state constitutions.”

…Adding… Press release…

Illinois State Treasurer Candidate and State Representative Tom Demmer will join other Illinois legislators and candidates to discuss the harmful impact a retirement tax would have on Illinois families and why he is running against its champion Treasurer Mike Frerichs.

WHO:
Illinois State Treasurer Candidate and State Representative Tom Demmer (R-Dixon)
Illinois State Representative Amy Elik (R-Fosterburg)
Candidate for the Illinois Senate 56th District Erica Harriss

WHAT: Press conference and media availability to discuss Demmer’s prevention of the harmful effects of a retirement tax suggested by Illinois Treasurer Mike Frerichs.

WHEN: Wednesday, August 31, 2022, 2:30 pm

WHERE: Madison County Courthouse
157 N. Main Street
Edwardsville, IL 62025

* More…

* Pritzker calls Bailey a ‘liar’ without addressing farmers’ Grain Belt Express concerns: “If J.B. is comfortable walking into a room and lying to the faces of working people about this, how can he be trusted to tell the truth about anything? I’m focused on honest leadership that identifies problems, brings people to the table, and finds solutions to make Illinois safer and more affordable for everyone,” Bailey said.

* Who is this guy? Treasurer candidate hits the hustings: Demmer said that he’s been disappointed by Frerichs’ failure to be a more energetic financial watchdog. If elected, Demmer said he’ll embrace a “more active role in advocating for sound financial policy.” “I think (Frerichs) has taken a keep-your-head-down, don’t-ruffle-any-feathers approach,” Demmer said.

* Wheaton Democrat mounts challenge to GOP’s Amy Grant for 47th House seat

       

38 Comments
  1. - Techie - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:13 pm:

    The election is still a ways away, but those are low undecided percentages and pretty substantial margins. I’m not too surprised given the political climate and the particular candidates, but the Republicans should be pretty scared by these numbers.


  2. - DuPage Saint - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:13 pm:

    I think next time they should just hire General Custer to lead the party. I hope that these numbers are true. Then maybe the party can try to rebuild without these clowns. And the fact that you had to ask the question is Andersson even still a Republican shows the problem with the Republican party today


  3. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:17 pm:

    Love me some “Campaign notebook”

    This… love this too;

    ===* Um, is Steve even a Republican these days?…===

    I feel for ya, sir.

    Myself, not identifying with Bailey, his ilk, the ILGOP, Trump, or the national cult… I feel for ya. It’s like looking outside at a cult.


  4. - TheInvisibleMan - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:24 pm:

    –would be like putting an arsonist in charge of the fire department.–

    That’s some real inside baseball stuff right there.


  5. - Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:24 pm:

    I don’t know whether Steve considers himself a Republican, but that party, the party of Lincoln, is dead. Being a reasonable and decent man means that Steve doesn’t belong to the MAGA GOP.


  6. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:24 pm:

    ==Not really sure about this pollster, but 18-23 point leads across the board and every Dem above 50 is pretty wild. ==

    Wild, yes, but as one data point and a “snapshot in time”, kinda believable. It’s not like any of those Republicans have even really significantly gotten their own messages out there yet, and right now, *right now*, the national environment doesn’t even look that bad for Dems.

    Lotta baseball still to play, tho.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:27 pm:

    The only thing I believe about the poll?

    I believe the Trunpkins are behind.

    It’s a snapshot, it’s a moment, I’d like to see more polling, but I do believe the “chasers” and the “leaders” are likely correct


  8. - Boone's is Back - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:39 pm:

    That Pritzker video is very good.


  9. - Dance Band on the Titanic - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:45 pm:

    Guessing November 7 will be an early evening for Illinois TV stations.


  10. - Huh? - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:48 pm:

    Beetle bleating about the stolen election in … 3 … 2… 1 …


  11. - Skeptic - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:52 pm:

    “gotten their own messages out” That would assume they *have* a message.


  12. - Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:55 pm:

    I don’t buy the margins but I do buy the general picture.


  13. - illini - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:56 pm:

    I suspect that at some time in recent history the Illinois Farm Bureau Activator has endorsed a Democrat for a legislative office but I can not remember when it might have been or who the candidate might have been. Can anyone prove me wrong?

    This organization routinely goes through the motions to appear unbiased and apolitical, but their ultimate decision is always a predetermined endorsement of any candidate who is running as a Republican.


  14. - Suburban Guy - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 2:57 pm:

    19% of your sample coming from Cook County is so wildly off historical norms that either the poll is seriously flawed, or the county has a serious problem on its hands and kudos to the pollster for catching such a mass exodus from Cook County…

    For reference, Cook County should be more in line with 35-40% of your sample. Chicago, along, accounts for 19%.


  15. - Curious - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:01 pm:

    ==Giannoulias: 55%
    Brady: 37%==

    If Alexi prevails does Benigno stay on with the new administration or does he retire along with Jesse?


  16. - Retired SURS Employee - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:01 pm:

    As a friend of Steve, I am not at all surprised by his comments, although doing an actual ad for JB is something else!


  17. - MaddyMoon - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:08 pm:

    Republicans have left the state. 2016 was the last competitive campaign year for the GOP. Illinois is is now as competitive as New York or California. will be this way for a while.

    so it goes


  18. - MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:11 pm:

    Keep your chin up GOP — your candidates are all still above the Alan Keyes line of 27%.

    – MrJM


  19. - jackmac - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:11 pm:

    As a snapshot in time, the polling numbers seem about right as Bailey and the GOP slate struggle to gain any traction in this heavily Democratic state. However the lighter weight assigned in the poll for Cook County (as pointed out by Suburban Guy) could mean the gaps are even larger.


  20. - Retired SOS - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:11 pm:

    I don’t believe Alexi (if he prevails) keeps Benigno. If he wants to modernize the agency, then Benigno is not the guy for that. He’s basically “checked out” right now and should just retire already.


  21. - duck duck goose - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:12 pm:

    The Republican treasurer candidate is complaining that there’s not enough bureaucratic financial regulation. I just don’t understand the world anymore.


  22. - Nuke The Whales - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:25 pm:

    ==Republicans have left the state.==
    Citation needed.


  23. - Steve Rogers - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:29 pm:

    The poll is consistent across the board. I don’t know if there are polls for the two supreme court races, but I’d be interested to see what those look like.


  24. - Skeptic - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:34 pm:

    “==Republicans have left the state.==
    Citation needed.”
    Well, there are commenters here that keep yelling about the “massive out-migration” from Illinois (a position not supported by the facts.) Maybe that’s what they’re seeing?


  25. - Concerned Observer - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:48 pm:

    You know what number jumped out at me?

    Bailey approval: 26%. 49% neg, 25% unsure. That’s abysmal. Underwater downstate, underwater with men, only above with self-ID’ing conservatives.

    So, he needs to be introducing himself to have any chance, right? Gotta shrink the unsure number?

    Except the way he’s done it is to lean harder right, call Chicago a “hellhole”, and fail to formulate much of a ‘Why vote for me’ plan. It’s been attack, slash and burn, and pray.

    So that 25%…you know who’s gonna move that needle? Pritzker, with his war chest. He will keep defining Bailey and he ain’t gonna make it a positive definition.


  26. - Pundent - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 3:53 pm:

    Well it seems that the current state of the ILGOP is best summed up as purity to the party, poison to the polls.


  27. - someonehastosayit - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 4:16 pm:

    === So, he needs to be introducing himself to have any chance, right?===
    I think Bailey has done this. And the more that people know Bailey, the more they dislike him.


  28. - Donnie Elgin - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 4:21 pm:

    “Although doing an actual ad for JB is something else!”

    Agreed - Steve is a respected consensus builder- I’ve known him since he was a library trustee. He was brave to take some unpopular votes to keep the state-funded. But actively working against his party is another thing. He should know that Bailey is DOA so why bother burning bridges?


  29. - The Abyss - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 4:31 pm:

    It’s looking like another long, dark decade is looming for the GOP.


  30. - Pundent - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 4:44 pm:

    =He should know that Bailey is DOA so why bother burning bridges?=

    Principle over politics. Which is something we used to admire. Once you go full MAGA it’s hard to go back. And if the ILGOP is going to have any relevancy going forward it will need more Steve Andersson’s and fewer Darren Bailey’s. A party that feels that it needs to appease racist thinkers and insurrectionists might be a party that neither Steve Andersson nor I want to be part of.


  31. - Independent - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 4:44 pm:

    Drilling in on the SoS race and reintroducing voters to Alexi and his foibles is the smartest play the ILGOP has. Still a long shot but it’s their best hope for a statewide office.


  32. - The Ford Lawyer - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 4:53 pm:

    Bailey and Salvi will both lose very badly, but I’m not buying this poll. Brady and the generic legislative candidate being barely above water in the “rest” of Illinois doesn’t ring true. The rest of it, though, yeah. Bailey’s over/under for the general is 40% I’d say. The rest of the ticket will go down as well, but not by as much.


  33. - JS Mill - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 8:06 pm:

    =He should know that Bailey is DOA so why bother burning bridges?=

    Or maybe he is still brave. Used to be that real leaders chose the state over the party. Maybe that is what he is doing.

    Leaders know that running the state is a legislative process that requires compromise and agreement not simply throwing a fit and calling names to get what you want.

    I’ll take guys like Anderson everyday.


  34. - Guy - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 8:09 pm:

    ==I suspect that at some time in recent history the Illinois Farm Bureau Activator has endorsed a Democrat for a legislative office but I can not remember when it might have been or who the candidate might have been. Can anyone prove me wrong?==

    They’ve endorsed Bustos multiple times, haven’t they?


  35. - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 8:59 pm:

    ==Republicans have left the state.==

    ==Citation needed.==

    Rauner and Griffin left for Florida, Jimmy John seems to be gone as well (and probably Sully too). Are there any others? /s


  36. - jimbo - Tuesday, Aug 30, 22 @ 9:02 pm:

    As bad as Bailey probably feels seeing this, imagine how DeVore must feel considering he seemingly wasn’t even important enough to poll


  37. - Northwest Illinois - Wednesday, Aug 31, 22 @ 1:46 am:

    Why does Illinois need a Constitutional amendment for bargaining rights? Tyson Beef Processing in Joslin is offering starting wages of $27.50 - 32.50 /hr and a $6000 signing bonus. Semi-truck drivers for the Walmart Distribution Center in Sterling, IL with 5 years experience start at $115K per year.

    You don’t need to change the Constitution if the labor market is driving that type of wage structure for jobs that just require a willingness to work.

    New job development and housing growth is concentrated on the Iowa side of the river - a Right To Work state.


  38. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Aug 31, 22 @ 7:27 am:

    ===You don’t need to change the Constitution if the labor market is driving that type of wage structure for jobs that just require a willingness to work.===

    It’s about enshrining… rights… not the idea of wages alone.

    You might not understand the amendment


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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