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Campaign notebook

Monday, Oct 3, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Political Wire

“During the 2020 election, Jared Kushner tried to artificially ‘inflate’ Donald Trump’s sinking numbers in the polls against Joe Biden, according to New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman’s new book. Within Team Trump, Haberman reports, the purpose of Kushner’s request was clear — he just wanted to juke the survey numbers, in the hopes of keeping his father-in-law from flying into a rage,” Rolling Stone reports.

From the book: “Kushner, who oversaw reelection strategy from his post as a White House senior adviser, advised a campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, to inflate Trump’s standing in surveys that would be shown to the candidate by adding percentage points to his position in the horse race.”

Fabrizio is Dan Proft’s pollster. I’m not saying Fabrizio juked the numbers for Proft like he allegedly did may have done for Trump to make the governor’s race here look like it’s a five-point contest, I’m just saying that I’m probably never going to look at another Fabrizio poll the same way again.

* Oppo Dump: Before the primary, Illinois Right To Life Action rated 8th Congressional District Republican primary candidate Chris Dargis a “2,” meaning he was “Not in full support of all Pro-Life issues.” Dargis contributed $400 to IRLA in April. The group has since revised its Dargis rating to a “1,” meaning he’s “Fully Pro-Life.” IRLA also puts a “#” next to candidates who support rape and incest exceptions for abortion. Keith Pekau has one, but Dargis does not. Dargis is up against US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who is rated a “4,” which means he is “Totally opposed to Pro-Life issues.”

* Sen. Darren Bailey is on record as saying he opposes state minimum wage laws. He wants the wage set at a federal level…

* Press release…

Today, U.S. Congressman Sean Casten (D-IL) released his first TV ad of the general election. The ad contrasts Casten’s 100% pro-choice stance, and support from major pro-choice organizations, with his opponent’s extreme anti-choice views. The ad will run on TV through Election Day as part of a seven-figure ad buy.

You can watch the ad, “Even Further”, here.

Newscaster: Roe vs. Wade is overruled.
Narrator: Keith Pekau wants to go even further. Pekau supports banning abortion here in Illinois, and would allow states to criminalize abortions even in cases of rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life.
Sean Casten: I always have and always will protect a woman’s right to make her own healthcare decisions. Including the right to choose an abortion. And I’ll fight any attempt to ban or criminalize abortion access here in Illinois and across the country. I’m Sean Casten and I approve this message.

…Adding… So far, $38,763 has been placed on cable channels ESPN, HGTV, TBSC, TNT and USA. No word yet on broadcast.

* Politico

— In IL-06, Congressman Sean Casten has a six-figure digital ad featuring the endorsement of Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart. Both Casten and Dart are Democrats. The ad focuses on Casten’s support of funding for law enforcement.

The ad is here.

* Politico

Gov. JB Pritzker has given $350,000 to Democrat Josh Shapiro in his run for Pennsylvania governor. It’s all part of Pritzker’s effort to fund governor candidates who he sees as key to keeping abortion rights legal in their states. Pritzker has given an additional $100,000 to Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. The Midwestern governors had previously received $250,000 from Pritzker this election cycle.

The Illinois governor also gave $100,000 each to Maine Gov. Janet Mills and Democratic governor challengers Charlie Crist in Florida and Beto O’Rourke in Texas.

* From Mary Ann Ahern’s coverage of the Friday joint candidate interviews

I did follow up with the Bailey campaign to ask ‘Has the candidate been vaccinated?’ They will not answer that question.


* CD13…

Today, Nikki Budzinski announced that her campaign raised over $1,000,000 in the third quarter of 2022. Budzinski entered the general election in June with over $1,000,000 cash on hand, putting her in a strong position to communicate with voters. To date, Budzinski has raised over $3,000,000 since announcing her campaign in August of 2021.

* Sun-Times

Sean Morrison finds himself in a precarious position. He’s the lone incumbent Republican on the Cook County Board of Commissioners fighting to keep his seat in the November general election. […]

In the last general election in 2018, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, who is also chairwoman of the Cook County Democratic Party, targeted three out of four incumbent Republicans on the board — and defeated two of them, including the head of the Illinois Republican Party.

Now Preckwinkle says she plans to topple Morrison, go after Silvestri’s seat and defend the two seats the Democrats flipped to blue four years ago. Buoyed by a new district map that gives Democrats the advantage, Preckwinkle thinks her party has the opportunity to run the entire Cook County Board of Commissioners.

* More…

    * Former Ugaste campaign chair endorses opponent Democrat Robertson in Illinois’ 65th Dist. race: Ugaste said Marston assisted with his campaign in 2017 and 2018 but they had a parting of the ways in 2019. … Ugaste said Marston was involved but not in the day-to-day work of his campaign. According to the State Board of Elections website, Marston was chairman of Citizens for Ugaste since Aug. 22, 2017 and is still currently listed as such. [Ugaste has since taken over as chair.]

    * Illinois treasurer candidates Mike Frerichs, Tom Demmer spar over role of office: “The treasurer should be speaking up and advocating for taxpayers in the big public discussions of the day,” Demmer said. “The state treasurer should be someone who is going to be an outspoken advocate for taxpayers and challenge the status quo.” Demmer, a five-term state representative from Dixon, called Frerichs a “rubber stamp” for Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s administration who has supported various tax hikes over the years. Frerichs argued that Demmer would be an obstructionist rather than an advocate. He said Demmer acted as former Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner’s floor leader on failed budgets that led to a two-year budget impasse during Rauner’s single term in office that “devastated social service agencies and decimated our public universities” due to lack of funding. “For two years he sat there and said nothing about the devastation that was going on. Let it happen,” Frerichs said. “I won’t sit here and be lectured about policies by someone who tried to destroy social service agencies and pursue an anti-worker agenda.”

    * Lake County candidates skipping League of Women Voters forums: ‘We consider this a real problem’: Lara Cooper, spokesperson for Democrat Elizabeth “Liz” Rochford’s campaign, blasted Curran for not agreeing to the forum. “Mark Curran has refused three times to share a stage with Judge Elizabeth Rochford to hide his extremist anti-abortion positions and ‘not recommended’ rating from the Illinois State Bar Association, thereby backing out of campaign forums by making up lies about reputable, nonpolitical organizations like the Lake County League of Women Voters, which has absolutely no agenda other than to inform voters,” Cooper said.

    * In the fight for the US House, one of the most important battles is in northwest Illinois: King said she’s opposed to abortion and she’s glad the Supreme Court returned the decision on abortion rules to the states, “especially here in Illinois, where our extreme laws are out of touch with over 80% of Americans.” But she said she doesn’t think the recent proposal by Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina to limit abortion rights nationally will go anywhere. “I don’t think too many people are paying attention to Lindsey Graham, especially here in our area,” King said.

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  1. - MisterJayEm - Monday, Oct 3, 22 @ 2:20 pm:

    “I’m not saying Fabrizio juked the numbers for Proft like he allegedly did for Trump”

    At the risk of being that guy, doesn’t the article only allege that Jared wanted to “juke the survey numbers,” not that Jared ever succeeded in getting Fabrizio’s polling results altered?

    That makes a big difference with regard to the credibility of Fabrizio’s polling.

    – MrJM

  2. - NIU Grad - Monday, Oct 3, 22 @ 2:25 pm:

    “For two years he sat there and said nothing about the devastation that was going on. Let it happen. I won’t sit here and be lectured about policies by someone who tried to destroy social service agencies and pursue an anti-worker agenda.”

    Not holding back at all.

  3. - H-W - Monday, Oct 3, 22 @ 2:32 pm:

    Trussell is suggesting that at $12-15 an hour, Pritzker is wrong to claim this would be a livable wage? And yet Turssell’s running mate wants to lower that minimum wage level. So Trussell is comfortable saying Pritzker is lying about being able to live on $12-15 and hour, and also comfortable saying if you elect us, we will try to implement an even lower, less livable wage. Are we to prefer Trussell because at least she is not lying about oppressing workers intentionally?

  4. - Sox Fan - Monday, Oct 3, 22 @ 2:35 pm:

    Vaccine denialism baffles me.

  5. - Amalia - Monday, Oct 3, 22 @ 2:48 pm:

    Trussell: vote for us because we won’t say you can’t live on what we won’t give you.

  6. - MoralMinority - Monday, Oct 3, 22 @ 2:51 pm:

    == He wants the wage set at a federal level==I guess Darren prefers being able to pay workers $7.25 per hour instead of $12.00 (and eventually $15.00) per hour. At the rate the Federal minimum is going up I would guess we could see everyone making at least $10 by 2050.

  7. - thechampaignlife - Monday, Oct 3, 22 @ 3:43 pm:

    ===I have trouble watching Pritzker interviews because I have to pause the video to fact check?===

    The question mark at the end of a statement has some real Ron Burgundy vibes.

    ===Where in JB’s Illinois can you live for $12 an hour?===

    The poverty threshold is $13,590, so the feds appear to think lots of people could live on $24k. Looks like about 20% of Illinoisans live on less than $24k. Trussell needs to get out of the Michigan Avenue mindset and go live in Xenia to see how a 2 income median household lives on less than $48k. /s

  8. - City Zen - Monday, Oct 3, 22 @ 3:59 pm:

    ==Preckwinkle thinks her party has the opportunity to run the entire Cook County Board of Commissioners==

    Electoral equivalent of your eye exam and you can’t decide which of the nearly identical lenses gives you better vision.

  9. - The Velvet Frog - Monday, Oct 3, 22 @ 7:45 pm:

    I’d love to see Silvestri’s old seat get flipped but I’m not super optimistic considering how many Podgorski signs I’m seeing where I live compared to a few for Maggie Trevor.

    As for polling, internal polls done by/done for campaigns are virtually always biased and inaccurate. They tell them what they want to hear.

  10. - Old time Independent - Monday, Oct 3, 22 @ 10:06 pm:

    Morrison is a self proclaimed millionaire. Bragging how he didn’t need a college degree to become a millionaire. So last week he got $200,000 from a Griffin pack he should give that money to other Republicans running in Cook County and help get them elected. When Greg Hines asked if he would share the money he gave a emphatic NO. Not what I would call a good leader for the Cook GOP.

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