* From that Sun-Times/WBEZ PPP poll…
Two-thirds said Pritzker shouldn’t get involved in presidential campaigning two years from now, with another 21% saying they weren’t sure. Only 13% embraced the idea of Pritzker trying to become the second Illinoisan in the past four presidential elections to sit in the Oval Office. […]
In the Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll, 63% of Illinois voters said they didn’t think Biden should run for re-election two years from now, while another 18% were unsure. Only 19% said they favored Biden for a second term. […]
The Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll found 46% of respondents viewed [Biden] favorably, while 47% viewed him unfavorably, with 7% unsure. It’s an improvement from the national numbers but hardly a ringing endorsement. […]
Biden was leading Trump among Illinois voters, 51% to 42%, with 7% undecided.
Those numbers are identical if Pritzker secured the Democratic nomination. In a potential matchup with Trump, 51% of Illinois voters would favor the incumbent Illinois governor compared to 42% for Trump with 7% undecided.
Still no crosstabs posted online. Biden defeated Trump 57.5-40.55 two years ago. Trump is up a tiny notch (although that could just be noise) and Biden is clearly down, but still far ahead.
- Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 8:56 am:
Doubt Pritzker has ever drew a foolish breath in his life.
If the math is there in two years, he’ll toss in his hat. If not, he won’t.
- ;) - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:04 am:
7% undecided in a trump-Biden matchup? I’m calling malarkey. Sounds more like a swath of people who don’t want their answer known than actual undecideds.
- Big Dipper - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:11 am:
For all the Republicans who have constantly harped on Biden’s age, Trump will be pushing 80 if elected in 2024.
- MisterJayEm - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:11 am:
“Should Barack Obama run for president in 2008?”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2006-10-22-0610220324-story.html
– MrJM
- Torco Sign - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:13 am:
Common for people in the potential candidate’s home state to not want them to run for president — they see them in a certain role already. That said, despite his money advantage over literally anyone, JB would have an uphill battle over non-billionaires, non-white men, and officials from states with non-existent GOP competition.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:16 am:
A year is such a long time.
Neither party is aided by the “it’s their turn” type of candidate, open primaries “run em all” is best.
Then again, the GOP learned the hard way that cult of personality in a crowded field is a recipe to lose the party entirely
- Cubs in '16 - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:20 am:
I wonder if the 2/3 who don’t want Pritzker to run for president don’t think he can win or don’t want to lose him as governor.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:21 am:
===don’t think he can win or don’t want to lose him===
Some might just despise him. But, yeah, it would’ve been helpful to know that.
- Torco Sign - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:30 am:
===JB would have an uphill battle over non-billionaires, non-white men, and officials from states with non-existent GOP competition.===
My bad, gang. Meant potential presidential candidates from more competitive states.
- Steve - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:39 am:
This is one poll. JB is popular in progressive Illinois. He’s got the right stuff to win presidential primaries. He’s got money and helped many Democrats over the years. If I was him, I wouldn’t be deterred by this poll. If he announced for president, I’m sure there would be different results. I highly doubt any Republican could beat him in this state if he were running for president.
- Ron Burgundy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:39 am:
I generally approve of the job he’s done, but I would count myself in the group that would react negatively to a Presidential run. I just tend to not like it when politicians get elected to do a job then immediately start campaigning for a different one.
- Paddyrollingstone - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:41 am:
===don’t think he can win or don’t want to lose him===
Some might just despise him. But, yeah, it would’ve been helpful to know that.
Agreed - I like Pritzker but also want Biden to run again, so I would have answered “no” on having JB run for president .
- Steve - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:42 am:
If Biden doesn’t run, who would be a stronger candidate than JB? He’s the governor of a big state and he’s got money. Plus, he knows how to run an effective campaign. JB appeals to many important groups in the Democratic party.
- Arsenal - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:44 am:
I think this is interesting and not too surprising, but I also don’t know how meaningful it is. The reality is that JB only runs if Biden (and maybe Harris, too) doesn’t. I’m not sure this poll gives us a good sense of how people would actually react in that world.
- New Day - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:52 am:
Well thank God we settled that question. What a silly waste of a poll question.
- Cubs in '16 - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:53 am:
===If Biden doesn’t run, who would be a stronger candidate than JB?===
That’s my question too. Given JB’s relatively high approval ratings the poll’s numbers are a head scratcher unless the people polled are mostly Pritzker despisers as Rich suggests.
- Surge voter - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:54 am:
Hey Steve…you asked who would be stronger potus candidate than JB? What about Whitmer, Newsom, Klobachar to name just a few.
- Lucky Pierre - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:54 am:
Two years is an eternity in politics but if these numbers remain this bad for Democrats two years from now it will be tough sledding for whoever the Democrats nominate
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/HHP_Oct2022_KeyResults.pdf
- Hahaha - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 9:55 am:
This might be too big brain but I think Pritzker’s only chance in a Dem presidential primary is actually if Biden runs. The field will be sparse and he would get close to a one on one matchup with a President who is deteriorating rapidly.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:00 am:
Shot…
===This might be too big brain===
…Chaser
===he would get close to a one on one matchup with a President===
Taking on an incumbent president in a primary?
How many times has that worked out?
Big brain… maybe dorm room, unless you’re Franklin Pierce?
- twowaystreet - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:00 am:
===Plus, he knows how to run an effective campaign.===
Do you have examples? Rauner wasn’t a real challenge and neither is Bailey.
The graduated income tax fight was a disaster. He lost out on Senate President battle. He lost on the first round of the Party Chairmanship and salvaged it on the second election but at a hefty cost. And the statehouse/aldermanic races he’s been involved with have been a mixed bag.
When it comes to campaigning, I don’t really see a great record.
- Steve - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:03 am:
-What about Whitmer, Newsom, Klobachar to name just a few.-
They all are considered top contenders . However, JB is a Governor of the 6th biggest state. He has a major track record, in a short time , of major accomplishments that Democrats like. He’s got money, he knows how to run a campaign. He also comes off as a likable person.
- Norseman - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:04 am:
Put me in the category of not believing he could win. He’s in a good position in IL. Those conditions don’t exist at the national level. JB needs to appreciate being the big fish in the 6th biggest pond.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:05 am:
===6th biggest state===
Adjusted back to 5th if you are one to look at things like that, and Newsome is governor of California which might be bigger than Illinois, last I checked.
- DissapointedVoter - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:10 am:
This is prob where he started when he ran for governor. With that said, I don’t see Biden not running again.
- Jibba - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:12 am:
JB has a great record of accomplishments. He also has a significant number of failures, some of which are not exactly of his making but he did little to solve them. He needs to improve his day-to-day management of the state and its agencies. Despite being likable, he needs to get better at retail politics. His debating is especially middling. 6 years from now is a better estimate, not 2.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:17 am:
It was reportedly Jill Biden who convinced Joe not to run in 2016 so soon after son Beau’s death. In another year, she may tell her husband he’d be too old by the end of a second term.
Harris will run but seems to be out of her league. Pritzker would be a strong progressive candidate. Will Kinzinger jump parties and run as a moderate candidate? Stranger things have happened.
- John Lopez - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:25 am:
=== Newsome is governor of California which might be bigger than Illinois, last I checked. ===
JB Pritzker would have big problems going up against Gavin Newsom in a presidential primary, and let’s assume neither will run if Biden, at 81, seeks a 2nd term or if Kamala Harris has succeeded Biden to the presidency.
Newsom has $$$, he soundly put down a recall attempt in 2021, and is cruising to a 2nd term as CA governor.
Newsom trying to enshrine abortion into the state’s constitution, and aggressively going after gun sales with the same zeal Texas going after abortion providers.
Plus, and Newsom has already taken unspoken shots at Pritzker (google video when Newsom visited the White House–when Biden was overseas this past summer), who looks good for a man in their mid to late 50s.
Newsom and Pritzker brings back memories of 1980s NBA basketball and head coaches Pat Riley (LA Lakers) and Frank Layden (Utah Jazz)
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:30 am:
===it will be tough sledding for whoever the Democrats nominate===
If the cult nominates Trump, all bets are off.
You run the race in front of you, in a primary first.
To “many” others,
The Fair Tax flop was a referendum, and while bungled quite badly on many fronts, it’s not a “candidate-candidate”
The intra-party “state senate president” and such, those are not in play when folks are looking at counties in Ohio, Michigan, or Pennsylvania
I do whole heartedly agree, management of agency issues, personnel (personnel is policy as well) and follow through on implementation of policies is a weakness, in an overall pointed to specific places and/or agencies.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:34 am:
===but at a hefty cost===
Maybe to Durbin’s ego, Durbin’s friend, and Kelly, costs to them, but what cost, and how is it heavy?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:35 am:
===is cruising to a 2nd term===
Bailey is making it a race?
Even the best polls for Bailey have him losing outside the MoE
- Ron Burgundy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:54 am:
-Even the best polls for Bailey have him losing outside the MoE-
And yet a guy like Ron DeSantis is considered the leading non-Trump GOP contender despite only winning his last race by .4%.
- John Lopez - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:56 am:
=== Even the best polls for Bailey have him losing outside the MoE ===
Compared to Gavin Newsom’s reelection bid, yes.
California uses the top-2 blanket primary, so Newsom was on June 7 primary ballot with all other opponents of all parties.
Newsom top vote-getter with 61.2% of the vote on June 7, with Republican state Senator Brian Dahle coming in 2nd with 15.1% of blanket primary vote.
Based on those actual voting numbers opposed to public opinion polls, Newsom will fare better than Pritzker November 8.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 11:03 am:
===And yet a guy like Ron DeSantis is considered the leading non-Trump GOP contender despite only winning his last race by .4%.===
It’s like measuring Stanley Cup contenders;
Win your division, conferences, all the layers, in the end, the regular season wins (statewide, single state, wins and margins) are not what get you Lord Stanley’s Cup.
Winning matters.
Those with “former” face different scrutiny
- Make It Make Sense - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 11:14 am:
===is cruising to a 2nd term===
==Bailey is making it a race?==
You missed the “as CA governor” part. Mr. Lopez was referring to Newsom, not Bailey.
- Paddyrollingstone - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 11:16 am:
John Lopez “Newsom and Pritzker brings back memories of 1980s NBA basketball and head coaches Pat Riley (LA Lakers) and Frank Layden (Utah Jazz)”
Brings to mind my favorite Frank Layden quote:
Frank: what is it with you, son? Is it ignorance or apathy?
Player: I don’t know Coach, and I don’t care.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 11:21 am:
===You missed===
I really didn’t.
- John Lopez - seemingly had this thought that winning margins matter in a measure of anything when moving on to a national stage.
In reality, winning your division in the Stanley Cup playoffs is measured the same to… winning.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 11:31 am:
===Compared to Gavin Newsom’s reelection bid, yes.===
The Blackhawks only need to win their central division, not the pacific division where the L.A. Kings are.
Unless I’ve read the Illinois constitution wrong, no Illinois governor needs to win by a larger margin that the California governor wins their race for governor.
It’s dorm room ridiculousness. It’s not even smart analysis, LOL
===Based on those actual voting numbers opposed to public opinion polls, Newsom will fare better than Pritzker November 8.===
It’s not even a real “head to head measure”… to anything.
Pathetic.
- Banish Misfortune - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 11:54 am:
I think that Pritzker is a viable candidate. Looking at past presidents, many were former governors. Carter, Reagan, Clinton and Bush. Governors had to run things and the Trump shows what happens to someone who has never run anything. (His business experience was actually signing license deals- only some of which worked). Carter micromanaged.
Governors have to deal with things whether they expected to or not and here all the governors had to deal with the pandemic. On the other hand the tax amendment did not pass and I put a lot of blame on Pritzker for that- he did not recognize the problem and dealt with it too late.
Public speaking and debate are important skills- certainly Obama had that, but a more pedestrian style is okay as long as he or she is communicating clearly.
So-looking at the field, I say Pritzker is definitely viable. So is Buttigieg (as Sec of Transportation is doing well with running a major program)
It also doesn’t hurt that as opposed to other supposed rich guys he is willing to spend his own bucks.
Finally in spite of his back ground he comes across as a regular guy who doesn’t have a ton of ego- whether or not that is true. He has my vote.
- New Day - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 12:18 pm:
“-What about Whitmer, Newsom, Klobachar to name just a few.-”
I already spoke my piece on Newsom. Personally I’m a fan of Amy Klobuchar but she’s just not in a lane anyone in a D primary is buying. Other than JB, Gretchen Whitmer is by far the most interesting D prez candidate on the bench.
- thisjustinagain - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:43 pm:
But can JB get nationwide voters? This is what totally sank the Republicans; nobody had a nation wide voter base except T-Man in 2016 and 2020. Yes, JB can run on his overall record pretty well, but will it play in Republican states, let alone some Dem states seeing a shift away from their failed policies, knowing he supported them?
- Steve - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:54 pm:
-But can JB get nationwide voters? -
Why not? There are ten of millions of Democratic party voters.