65 Comments - so much for that - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:38 pm: The Griffin/Z slate would all probably up at this point… - The Velvet Frog - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:41 pm: Only nine percent with crime as their top issue is not good news for the state GOP. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:45 pm: Honestly surprised the double digit lead for Alexi. One has to wonder if voters think his opponent is Bill Brady. I’m downstate so I don’t know how much he is advertising north of I-80. But on the other hand, Alexi was beat to a pulp by Kirk’s advertising in 2010 too. Thought it would be closer, with the current headwinds. I still think it will be closest out of all statewide races. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:45 pm: ===Bailey is doing very strong numbers in Chicago.=== Hitting that 20%… that’s good. The suburb numbers for Bailey are horrible news, double digits. The Amendment, looks like a lotta chasing, it’s tough to get that 60%, it feels quite steep here too. ===The Griffin/Z slate would all probably up at this point…=== Meh. That skate would’ve faced the same backlash Rauner faced “after Ives”… could that skate keep the racist thinkers, insurrection apologists and conspiracy theorists happy, while running towards the middle? Doubtful, but woulda been fun. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:46 pm: Bailey is at 20.2% is not good news for JB Pritzker and the Democrats Bruce Rauner won 20.7% of the Chicago vote in 2014 Why is it good news for Democrats that 39% see the economy, jobs, taxes and inflation as the top issue? https://depauliaonline.com/5473/focus/seeing-red-how-bruce-rauner-won-illinois-2/ - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:48 pm: Abortion ahead of crime is bad news for the GOP too. Now it’s up to (as Rich wrote) Welch and Harmon to use ALL the monetary advantages they enjoy to drive it home… - Techie - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:49 pm: I’m surprised the poll has Pritzker up by only that margin. A win is a win no matter the margin, but it surprises me that Bailey could garner that much support. - Techie - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:51 pm: Good to see the Workers’ Rights amendment stands a decent chance, given the amount of neighboring states with “right to work” laws. - City Zen - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:52 pm: ==The Amendment, looks like a lotta chasing, it’s tough to get that 60%, it feels quite steep here too.== If the WRA gets the same voter drop-off rate as the Fair Tax, 54% is good enough to pass. - levivotedforjudy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:54 pm: With Jesse White riding off into the sunset, does Mendoza take up the mantle as the top vote-getter in the state now? Her recent ads and the lack of them by her opponent seem like this may be happening. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:55 pm: ===54% is good enough to pass.=== That’s why these Amendment votes are always so dicey. So dicey. If it was closer to 56.5-57% I’d feel more comfortable where they are. That’s me. It’s a formula thingy. - Politix - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:01 pm: Bailey’s moving up in Chicago? Guess that’s what happens when you lie and fear-monger. If people truly believe that a millionaire farmer from down south gives one flip about violence in black neighborhoods, well, I guess they will get the government they deserve. Just like they did under Rauner. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:01 pm: - LP - The suburban numbers here, Bailey… they ain’t great. How did Rauner do in the suburbs versus where Bailey allegedly sits, according to this poll. Are you supporting Bailey, you never have said you were or were not. Why is that? - jim - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:02 pm: proof of a national D sweep on 11/8 - notafraid - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:02 pm: In state and national elections this remains a Democratic state and growing more so. A Republican might win but they would have to be a moderate running against a very weak Democrat who has issues. I believe these polls to be very accurate. - The Velvet Frog - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:02 pm: So 60 percent of votes in favor or a majority of people who took a ballot? Confusing. So that means it’s a good thing if a lot of people don’t vote either way. Looks like passing is a possibility but hard to be optimistic. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:05 pm: ===this remains a Democratic state=== Asked and answered, likely hundreds of times, yep, hundreds I’d say this; With the popular vote, Illinois has been in line with this country, less 2004 since 1988. That’s not a Dem thing, that’s a state mirroring the country. I’d also point to McConnell’s own words to Illinois’ lackluster run of GOP candidates. Recruiting matters. Plus, you forgot… Rauner, Kirk, Fitzgerald, Topinka, Rutherford… I know, it’s easy to drop Facebook victimhood… - Pundent - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:07 pm: =Why is it good news for Democrats that 39% see the economy, jobs, taxes and inflation as the top issue?= Because Darren Bailey isn’t campaigning on this issue. He’s decided to make crime his central theme regardless of where it ranks with the voters. - Mr. Middle Ground - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:09 pm: -Only nine percent with crime as their top issue is not good news for the state GOP— Abortion access polls essentially the same as crime for top issue. I would argue that is very bad news for Democrats. Given that inflation is more than twice both of those issues combined, there are windows of opportunity for Republicans. Yet, there is no money to take advantage. The Governors race is determined at this point. The final spread at the end may be closer than we expect but the Governor gets a second term. However, the down ballot statewide races (where proportionally no money has been spent) can change with a significant investment (looking at Demmer and Brady). The cash that it would require is very unlikely to come at this point. - Donnie Elgin - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:10 pm: ===54% is good enough to pass.=== It is not necessarily that simple - every person that skips voting on the amendment will make it that much harder to pass. IML has a nice scorecard on how it passes On Election Day, an amendment is considered adopted by the voters with the affirmative vote of either 1) a 3/5 majority of those voting on the question 2) a simple majority of all votes cast in the election. EXAMPLE 1: If 1,000,000 people vote in the election in 2022 but only 500,000 vote on the constitutional amendment, then 300,000 would have to vote in favor of the amendment for it to be adopted (3/5 majority of those voting on the question). EXAMPLE 2: If 1,000,000 people vote in the election in 2022 and all of them vote on the amendment, then 500,001 would have to vote in favor of the amendment for it to be adopted (a simple majority of all votes cast). - Roadrager - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:12 pm: ==proof of a national D sweep on 11/8== I assume this is sarcasm. Democrats are going to do well here, and should, as they are currently the only major political party not advocating for theocratic dictatorship. But they are going to get stomped nationally, for reasons both in and out of their control. We’re about to have Senators Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker, and if you think that bodes ill for the Republic, wait until you see what 2024 has to offer. - Hahaha - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:13 pm: If Griffin slate had won, what is happening in New Mexico and Oregon would have happened in IL. Thanks Bailey crew, Dan Proft, and Dick Uihlein. Heck of a job! - noah - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:15 pm: i cannot emphasize enough how bad the crosstabs of the emerson poll are. recalled 2020 vote has black voters at 82/12, when exit polls have it at 93/6. for latino voters, poll recall is 54/28 compared to exit poll 70/27. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:16 pm: ==Bailey is at 20.2% is not good news for JB Pritzker and the Democrats== Cope. JB Pritzker is up 9% in that poll. ==Honestly surprised the double digit lead for Alexi.== Alexi is basically Generic Dem at this point. his issues, while real, are long forgotten, and Brady has not been able to remind anyone of them. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:17 pm: ===However, the down ballot statewide races (where proportionally no money has been spent)=== Narrator: Every statewide Democratic candidate is up on TV, some with multiple ads. No statewide candidate for the GOP, less Bailey is on TV. Demmer and Brady, if they go on to lose, will be ones who learned valuable lessons. Hope is never a strategy, and finding money is still the most important thing any candidate can do. - cermak_rd - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:17 pm: The thing is Willy, as you know, the base of the GOP has chosen extremism as a banner. And so a decent IL style candidate getting out of the primary isn’t that good. Also the suburbs have demographically changed quite a bit. New residents to the north of the state tend to be more liberal because conservatives are just less likely to move there and the conservative parts of the state don’t offer as much attraction to anyone to move there. So I think there is going to be a continual change in a more blue direction until such time as the GOP makes a U-turn in the area. Kirk last ran in 2016 and got beaten. Rutherford left office in 2015. Topinka last ran in 2014 and I’m just not sure she could win in today’s GOP primary without attracting a boatload of crossovers, which OK Judy could do because she was Judy, but that’s a lot harder for someone who’s still unknown. I’ll give you Rauner, but he was running against a very weak Dem. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:19 pm: ===recalled 2020 vote has black voters at 82/12, when exit polls have it at 93/6=== Different likely voters. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:20 pm: ===If Griffin=== They didn’t They were wholly rejected, Irvin coming in 3rd, the racist thinkers, insurrection apologists and conspiracy theorists won, with 56+% for their candidate. The dorm room is all fun and games but your silly thought to Oregon or New Mexico isn’t even possibly possible… the ugly of the GOP own the ILGOP. Own that. - H-W - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:23 pm: I tend to agree with OW. Said differently, if the current survey sample (a snap shot at best) suggests 54% in favor of those contacted support Amendment 1, that leaves a pretty steep hill to climb on election day. I worry that Bailey will in fact get out the vote, even if it is not enough for him personally to win. But getting out that vote may in fact make it hard for Amendment 1 to garner enough votes to win. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:24 pm: ===So I think there is going to be a continual change in a more blue direction until such time as the GOP makes a U-turn in the area.=== So… … Candidate recruitment? Candidate recruitment that can win, and say beat, a guy who embraces the worst elements of America, and did so so well that he got 56+% in a SIX way race? ===as you know=== I’ve said, numerous and numerous times. Me, I’ve been told “you’re the same” by the angry GOP, meaning they are telling on themselves, the party has changed. It’s up to the party to change to win. I don’t identify with this ILGOP. Nope. Not with that 56+% - Mr. Middle Ground - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:25 pm: -finding money is still the most important thing any candidate can do- Agreed. Brady and Demmer have winnable races but they have a day or two to find resources to win. I’m not counting them out but it is unlikely at this point. Early voting is underway and no reinforcements appear on the way. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:27 pm: Crime has not been polling that strong but Republicans are all-in on scaring the base. What can explain that, beside just apparent racism? - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:28 pm: ===Brady and Demmer have winnable races but they have a day or two to find resources to win. … I’m not counting them out but === Friend, early voting is happening. Now. You even acknowledge it. The barn door isn’t just open, the horse is already in town, re-shoed, and being auctioned off. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:37 pm: =beside just apparent racism?= I don’t know that it can be so easily chalked up to racism. No question that some of the ads go that way. But the gop has been selling fear as their main message for years. I have no data to support my point but the general concept of fear is what I think drive their voters. Admittedly fear of people of color is a part of that in places like the burbs. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:45 pm: ==Why is it good news for Democrats that 39% see the economy, jobs, taxes and inflation as the top issue?== They’re still winning. So there’s that. The majority of voters in Illinois simply do not agree with your worldview. You can either accept that and stop whining about it or not. Your choice. - Mr. Middle Ground - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:46 pm: -Friend, early voting is happening- Yep, it would take the resources today and further shifting of the environment to the right. Tend lines don’t look good either and two weeks ago, it looked like a split environment. Keep in mind that 90% of those polled had not voted and any undecided had not yet voted. But you are right, too little too late. My bias is showing and two good Rs are in an uphill battle. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:50 pm: ===two good Rs === Both, for an entire General Assembly, voted to hurt Illinois’ most vulnerable, helping Rauner by hurting Illinois purposely to destroy organized labor. Illinois will be better off with both out of government. The flip side is Illinois gets Alexi and Frerichs, but with Borne, Demmer, and Brady gone… it’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:52 pm: == every person that skips voting on the amendment will make it that much harder to pass== Depends on how they would’ve voted on it. At an extreme example, if every Yes voter votes, but 50% of the Nos skip it, it’s gonna sail. I don’t think either yeses or nos are particularly more likely to skip that question, though. - Socially DIstant watcher - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:52 pm: The worker rights poll numbers are missing 6 % of the voters. The percentages add up to just 94 points. - RNUG - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:52 pm: == Crime has not been polling that strong but Republicans are all-in == I could be wrong (we’ll see), but I have a feeling a lot of Republicans are ducking the pollsters, so I’m not that confident about poll results. Overall, crime may not be up that much, but a lot of neighborhoods are seeing crime that they haven’t seen before. Polls say it isn’t that big of an issue, but I just have this guy feeling it is one of those sleeper issues that can surprise you. - Pundent - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:52 pm: =Yep, it would take the resources today and further shifting of the environment to the right.= They’ve had weeks to get their message out. There’s no reason to believe that they can pull a rabbit out of the hat in 48 hours and make up the deficits they’re likely facing. As predicted Darren Bailey sidelined the down ballot candidates. They couldn’t risk alienating the base by recognizing the obvious and appealing to moderate voters so they did nothing. - MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 3:59 pm: 1.7% of respondents said that they were going to vote for someone else, i.e. someone who will not be on the ballot. 4.4% of respondents said that they were undecided in the Governor’s race. When asked, “Although you are undecided, which candidate [for governor] are you leaning towards at this time?” 34.4% of the undecided respondents replied, “Someone else.” Which means that 3.2% of the respondents either intend to vote for or are leaning towards voting for someone who will not be on the ballot. I don’t know about some of you people. – MrJM - Stormsw7706 - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 4:07 pm: I’d split the difference between Emerson (Hill) and Coviq polling. One is pretty conservative and one pretty liberal. Puts Pritzker up about 14. Sounds more like it. I’m also surprised by the lead in the SOS race ( thought it would be smaller ) and in the AG race ( thought it would be larger ). On a federal note I’m staggered by the wealth that Dearing has. I had no idea how rich she was. Surprised she isn’t deploying more cash - clec dcn - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 4:08 pm: Brady behind that much surprises me I would think it be a bit closer. I have to agree with RUNG that polls and the GOP might not be too accurate. Bailey pulling what he is doing now to me is huge. I thought he just drop off the table and go to landslide to JB. Polls are they even accurate these days? - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 4:12 pm: RNUG, FiveThirtyEight agrees with you. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nonresponse-bias-ipsos-poll-findings/ - Larry Bowa Jr. - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 4:13 pm: “a lot of neighborhoods are seeing crime that they haven’t seen before” That they haven’t seen since the early to mid 90s maybe. I’m old enough to remember what it was like back then. We aren’t even close to that, in spite of all the media hysteria. Speaking of which, any time any reporter in Chicago wants to mention that CPD has been on a soft strike since the George Floyd protests, straight up refusing to respond to calls or failing to answer them, that might be helpful to the public’s understanding of what’s actually happening in the city. - Proud Sucker - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 4:14 pm: I noticed that the ceiling for statewide Rs seems to be 40%. What I am uncertain of is if that shocks me or not with Bailey and Devore on the slate. - Pundent - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 4:23 pm: It seems that those that would be most concerned about crime as an issue spend little if any time in the areas where crime should supposedly be top of mind. I say this after spending the day walking the city (with a lot of others) and feeling perfectly safe. If people are in fear of being out and about you certainly wouldn’t see it on the streets of Chicago today. So maybe the problem that the GOP has is that the only people who believe that crime is our most pressing issue are those that are predisposed or conditioned to thinking that way. - Bunga - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 4:24 pm: ==Surprised she isn’t deploying more cash== That’s because Regan Deering doesn’t want to spend much money on something that would require NRCC/CLF intervention which she will not get at this point in the race. - Concerned Observer - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 5:00 pm: Gotta say, those in this thread surprised by Alexi’s lead surprise me. That’s largely because I don’t feel like I’ve seen a single anti-Alexi ad. I could well be wrong but if Brady is doing anything on TV in the Chicago market, it’s just background noise. Alexi’s ads are positive and memorable (oh he’s the guy playing basketball with kids). He has name recognition, he’s pitching blue in a blue state, he’s still a decent-looking young-ish guy, etc. Oh, and Illinois has had an immensely popular Democrat holding that office for two decades, so there’s no reason to change horses/parties. My prediction to a friend yesterday was, a blue sweep statewide, a very short night, and Raoul has the tightest race when all is said and done. Nothing in this poll, for any of the races, makes me reconsider. - Original Rambler - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 5:17 pm: I think Larry Bowa is correct about the soft strike. Wonder if there is any evidence to support that suspicion. I agree with RNUG that crime is a lot higher than 9%. - Big Dipper - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 5:48 pm: DeVore is rounding numbers both up and down to claim its just six points between him and Raoul. - Tom Keane - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 6:02 pm: We will be so much better off in our great state once we sweep the GOP in Nov . We have proved how well the state is preforming compared to our neighbors - Been There - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 7:27 pm: ====I think Larry Bowa is correct about the soft strike. Wonder if there is any evidence to support that suspicion. I agree with RNUG that crime is a lot higher than 9%.==== Not sure how the poll was conducted but if they were only allowed one choice instead of rank choice (like the new voting fad) I agree with you. If they ranked all the choices my guess is crime would sneak into the top 3. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 8:09 pm: I saw that 20% figure for JB in Chicago too. It is the thinnest of silver linings for Bailey. However, Rauner crushed Pritzker by 14 to 34 points in the collar counties. Bailey needs to hold JB to under 80% in Chicago, and also hold even in suburban Cook, win decisively in the Collar counties, and run up the margins downstate. - Original Anon - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 8:44 pm: I’m actually surprised at how “close” these races are. It makes me wonder if a less right-wing slate would lead Democrats? Or would a moderate slate be further behind with less downstate support? - New Day - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:33 pm: Three things. 1) That right track wrong track number shows amazing progress and is the primary reason (more than money) why JB is going to crush Bailey in this race. 2) Kwame’s team should be prosecuted for political malpractice. I will never understand why they haven’t tried to define Devore as the crazy extremist that he is. Had they done so, he would be leading by 15-20 and not the 7.7 in the Emerson poll. 3) I suspect if you averaged these two polls you would come strikingly close to the outcome on Election Day. I expect JB to win by 10+ - Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:57 pm: I am trying to decide whether it is a bigger indictment against Rauner or against Pritzker if Darren Bailey outperforms Bruce Rauner against JB Pritzker. If that happens both camps should feel bad at the very least. - Anonymous - Thursday, Oct 27, 22 @ 6:31 am: ===I could be wrong (we’ll see), but I have a feeling a lot of Republicans are ducking the pollsters, so I’m not that confident about poll results. Overall, crime may not be up that much, but a lot of neighborhoods are seeing crime that they haven’t seen before.=== Well ok but why assume that people concerned about crime aren’t voting for Pritzker? Pritzker signed quite a few bills to curb crime. Some Bailey voted for, some against. Bailey voted for Domestic Violence Task Force HB3317, Illinois Forensic Science Commission SB920, and Mental Health Funding, SB3617 Bailey voted against the Organized Retail Theft Act HB1091, Ghost Guns, Amends the Criminal Code of 2012, HB4383, the Crime Reduction Task Force and Co-responder Pilot Program HB4736, Violence Reduction Fund Act HB0716, FBI notification of Human Remains SB3932 Expanding Vessa for Domestic Crime Victims HB 3582, Protection of K-12 Crime Victims HB3223 and he didn’t vote for Funds for Police Training and Retention HB3863, and Funerals for Child Victims. HB 2985. All these bills Pritzker signed into law. - Da big bad wolf - Thursday, Oct 27, 22 @ 6:32 am: Sorry. Above anonymous was me. - The Dude - Thursday, Oct 27, 22 @ 6:34 am: I’m surprised it’s 9% and not 19% but that shows how JB isn’t liked because Bailey isnt likeable either I genuinely believe that one of the best moves in history of IL politics was JB’s play to run against Bailey. Richard Irvin I believe would be up 20% simply because he isn’t downstate and doesn’t have the southern draw that’s hurting him in the suburbs. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Oct 27, 22 @ 6:53 am: ===Richard Irvin I believe would be up 20% simply because he isn’t downstate and doesn’t have the southern draw that’s hurting him in the suburbs.=== Irvin would’ve lost the E-Van-Gel-Eye-Cals, the racist thinkers, insurrection apologists and conspiracy theorists. Irvin would likely face what Rauner faced in his own loss… no base to build a winning cake. Your take doesn’t take in account that Pritzker didn’t choose Bailey… 56+% of the voting GOP chose Bailey… over FIVE others. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Oct 27, 22 @ 7:15 am: ===Richard Irvin I believe would be up 20%=== Drink more coffee before you post here. - Arsenal - Thursday, Oct 27, 22 @ 8:52 am: 9% (and let’s remember that we have a second poll in this very post showing a much larger lead) isn’t “close” in any rational meaning of the word, and it does not indicate that swapping out Republican candidates would have lead to victory. The fact of the matter is is that JB Pritzker is an incumbent that is not underwater in popularity, has a lot of popular programs he can take credit for, and is running in a national environment that is not poisonous for his party. He was always going to be hard to topple, and if you think Richard Irvin was the answer, look at how absolutely rattled Irvin was by JB’s attack ads the primary. Dude simply was not ready for prime time. - supplied_demand - Thursday, Oct 27, 22 @ 8:54 am: ==I think Larry Bowa is correct about the soft strike. Wonder if there is any evidence to support that suspicion.== Those of us in the city can feel this. The Sun-Times ran this article in July. I would love to see a follow-up from any other outlet. As violent crime in Chicago soared, arrests fell to historic lows: https://chicago.suntimes.com/2022/7/15/23216341/violent-crime-soared-arrests-historic-lows-chicago-police-department-david-brown-lori-lightfoot Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.