70 Comments - Amalia - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 9:47 am: why did it take so long to put up something so basic? - Needs Deleted - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 9:48 am: It took so long, because the Dems only now realized they may have a problem on election day. - low level - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:01 am: About a month too late and Dem legislative candidates should have been hitting back like this as well - Sox Fan - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:02 am: Great piece by John Oliver last night https://youtu.be/xQLqIWbc9VM - H-W - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:06 am: I am not so sure making this about Bailey is going to resolve the issue in most Republicans minds. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:08 am: I don’t think John Oliver preaching to the choir will either - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:10 am: Trust us 100 of us have it wrong and Kim and I have it right - Here we go - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:18 am: Sorry Democrats waited six months too long to get on offense on the SAFE T act disinfo. The issue is already a winner for Republicans. This is a good ad. - Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:18 am: ===resolve the issue in most Republicans minds=== They’re not the target audience. - Demoralized - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:23 am: ==Trust us 100 of us have it wrong and Kim and I have it right== You are forever the victim. And you have NO idea whether you are wrong or right because the part of the law you and the rest of your ilk are complaining about hasn’t even taken effect yet. How about we wait and see what changes, if any, need to be made. I’m so sick and tired of people like you - Mr. Middle Ground - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:28 am: This ad is way too little and way too late. All it does it bring the issue up…again. Politics 101…change the message. - Anon324 - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:30 am: “Trust us 100 of us have it wrong..” It’s not so much that they’re wrong as they’re just deliberately lying and people like you are happy to not only let them get away with it, but tell them they aren’t lying. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:31 am: Too late, on time, the reality is crime isn’t moving needles in public polling. This is a marker ad, to put at ease those leaning Dem. Thinking this is designed to change minds is like saying Joe Rogan ad is designed for “undecideds” - low level - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:33 am: Everyone remember the reports over the summer which said crime wasnt polling very high? Hence, Dems got caught flatfooted. Anyone with good political instincts knew this would be an issue. Why the polls didnt pick it up is beyond me. - Norseman - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:36 am: The John Oliver segment was great. Unfortunately, too many of the electorate don’t want to spend more than a minute contemplating issues. It’s easier to scare the bejeezus out of voters in that minute. Especially, if you don’t worry about facts. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:40 am: ===Dems got caught flatfooted.=== It’s a marker ad. If there was real concern to losing support it’d be written differently to go after the “already converted” - G'Kar - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:41 am: I’ve seen a similar ad for the last couple of weeks using the same graphics. I honestly don’t remember if I saw them in cable or broadcast, though. - Mr. Middle Ground - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:41 am: -isn’t moving needles in public polling- I read that here last week too. I’ve thought about it but am not as convinced as you. Public polling is not the best in this race. Obviously, if both sides are talking about this issue…it matters…regardless of what yours or my confirmation bias leads us to think. Also, as 538 pointed out last week, Republican leaning voters are less like to answer polls. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nonresponse-bias-ipsos-poll-findings/amp/ The Hard Rs answer those polls but my gut says people that are moved by this issue (R leaning independents) are not participating. - New Day - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:43 am: I saw the John Oliver segment and hate like hell that Proft got his name mentioned on national TV. I also heard his name on NPR this morning. All of this attention only encourages him and his benefactor. When you’re Proft, there is no negative attention. All attention is good attention. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:46 am: ===but am not as convinced=== Saying the polls are wrong is the base thought to “the election is stolen” Thing is about polling, it’s like those who point to the electoral college as actual “proof” polling failed. Bailey still releases polls with him losing. Is Bailey wrong? - New Day - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:48 am: “Hence, Dems got caught flatfooted.” It depends on the state. I don’t think Dems in Illinois got caught because it’s not moving needles. Not in the public polling and not in the private polling. The same cannot be said in other states where it absolutely is having an effect. But we’re not other states. - Boomer remover - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:48 am: But Jb has,ads saying he froze gas tax and hired record # of state police, both false…so…… - Arsenal - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:50 am: ==Obviously, if both sides are talking about this issue…it matters== Not necessarily. We talked about this a little a few weeks ago, but not every candidate can run on every issue. For example, we know that protecting abortion is very important for Illinois voters, but Bailey can’t credibly promise that. Similarly, the economy is always very high, but Pritzker’s economic record is strong and Bailey doesn’t have much of a background on that. So you kind of have to cast about for an issue to run on, and Proft (a lot moreso than Bailey himself, really) has landed on crime. It’s not clear that that means it’s actually a powerful issue, its just what he wants to run on (and remember, he’s also playing for an audience of one, too). In fact, the balance of evidence strongly suggests that it’s not moving votes, you just want to operate under the assumption that that evidence doesn’t count for some reason. - Pujols for President - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:51 am: Crime is one of the top 3 issues across the nation. Come January 1, the way things stand now, roughly 30% of jailed people will be let go. - The Velvet Frog - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:51 am: Good ad but this should have been out ages ago. I don’t think the issue is going to make a difference with the statewide races but it could hurt some downballot in close districts. - The Velvet Frog - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:53 am: ==roughly 30% of jailed people will be let go. == Assuming that’s true, it just shows how broken the current system is. Really, 30 percent of people in jail right now are awaiting trial and couldn’t afford bail? Hell yeah let them out, we do it right now if defenders have the money. - TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:54 am: –100 of us have it wrong– Yes they do. That’s why some of the are throwing tantrum-like lawsuits at the wall to see what sticks. Where else are you going to get the entertainment of watching Jim Glasgow try to file a lawsuit that argues the same legislative process that passed the hearsay law allowing him to convict Drew Peterson, is now unconstitutional. But seeing as Glasgow is concerned about the constitution now, how does that square with the large amount of asset forfeiture cases he pushes in Will County. Is it constitutional now to take the assets of someone who had their case dismissed? - Arsenal - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:55 am: ==Come January 1, the way things stand now, roughly 30% of jailed people will be let go.== If that’s true, we need to have a serious conversation about why 30% of the jail population has not been convicted of a crime. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:55 am: ===roughly 30%=== The same people, in a weird way, are the ones who talk about “innocent until proven guilty” for insurrections and such and refuse to “back the capital police”… but they also seem set on pre-trial confinement. I have real questions to the Safe-T Act. The trailer bill(s) that could be in play before January 1st won’t appease the hard core, which is kind of the point with this ad… stave off where the polling has it stalled, here - The Velvet Frog - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:56 am: By what measure is the claim about state police not true? https://www.wqad.com/article/news/local/illinois-state-police-new-troopers/526-3e20792b-a721-415e-a444-94879c251853 - sal-says - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:57 am: TV ad with glassgow. Either a right wing against-everything repub or a lazy/illiterate county prosecutor or both. - low level - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 10:57 am: ==roughly 30% of jailed people will be let go.== Where on earth did you get that? - Mr. Middle Ground - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 11:00 am: -“saying the polls are wrong is the base thought to the “election is stolen”- No, it isn’t. Really not cool OW. And that doesn’t belong here. I don’t support stolen election nonsense and debating whether a handful of newspaper public polls are capturing the impact of crime on the electorate is far from that. You are above this. All I did was offer a citation from one of the top election forecasters. Changing the topic with a baseless accusation in order to not defend your own opinion is akin to a Trumpism. Again, you are above this. Since you asked for the record, I do not think Bailey’s polling is accurate. For decades campaigns have leaked internals that are far from reality. You also know this. I’m on record as saying Pritzker wins this race. -To the post- If both sides are spending millions talking about the issue in the last week before the election, the issue matters greatly. No matter how much we stick our heads in the stand. - Chicagonk - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 11:02 am: If crime wasn’t moving the needle, why is it a campaign issue for both parties? Obviously there is internal polling suggesting that this is an issue for voters - not saying it is the primary issue. I will say the funding disparity between the state GOP and the Democrats is really seen in the political ad time. GOP voters really shot themselves in the foot nominating Bailey over Griffin’s candidate. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 11:02 am: Jim Glasgow is the most Scott Drury of all the Ken Dunkins It’s not that’s there’s whole dishonesty, it’s the idea Glasgow chose “sides” in a way where his new side is wholly dishonest to the premise of the bill, let alone it being enacted. The window before the act takes effect helps in the ruse - Dr. M - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 11:14 am: The first rule of debate is if you’re explaining, you’re losing. Pritzker should be using his ad buys to change the subject, not go on the defensive. - Leap Day William - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 11:23 am: == Come January 1, the way things stand now, roughly 30% of jailed people will be let go. == “Roughly 30% of the people accused, but not convicted, of a crime will be allowed to follow our guarantee of due process found in our nation’s constitution.” There, fixed it for you. - TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 11:28 am: –why 30% of the jail population has not been convicted of a crime.– There’s a current inmate in Will County who has been waiting 7 *years* for his trial to start. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 11:32 am: ===The first rule of debate…=== Narrator: it’s an ad, not a debate - Weary - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 11:35 am: Call me naïve but I just don’t understand how voters can believe anything coming from this party without doing some serious fact checking. Fearmongering is ALWAYS their game plan. It’s also sad that John Oliver can do a better job of clarifying the elimination of cash bail than the people promoting it. A little education goes a long way - Arsenal - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 11:42 am: ==Pritzker should be using his ad buys to change the subject, not go on the defensive.== It’s not like this is his only ad on TV right now. - low level - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 12:49 pm: ==it’s not moving needles.== Its moving something, otherwise they wouldn’t be talking about it - jim - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 1:24 pm: John Oliver? Now there’s a credible source. - Arsenal - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 1:29 pm: ==Its moving something, otherwise they wouldn’t be talking about it== I don’t think it logically follows that politicians always talk about what moves votes the most. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 1:41 pm: ===Now there’s a credible source.=== Now do Joe Rogan. ===Its moving something, otherwise they wouldn’t be talking about it=== Welp, they could talk about how rapists can force their victims to carry a pregnancy to term, or how even victims of child molestation and incest need to have pregnancies complete too? But, they’re not. They could remind voters that voter integrity only works if the racist thinkers, insurrection apologists and conspiracy theorists say so… But they’re not It’s a pattern. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 1:42 pm: ===Really not cool=== But you didn’t say it’s not true… did ya? Of course you didn’t. I know, I know, don’t remind voters that Republicans are pushing, already, that elections are going to be stolen. That is adorable “not cool”, but wholly true. - JS Mill - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 1:43 pm: =Trust us 100 of us have it wrong and Kim and I have it right= Or, you could read the law like I did and see that Glasgow and friends are lying. Plain and simple. I think the issue is more compelling than some respected commenters think it is, but that is primarily outside of cook and the collars. The ad is too late to have much of an impact, but it is a good ad. =John Oliver? Now there’s a credible source.= Stated with no evidence whatsoever. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 1:44 pm: ===Changing the topic with a baseless accusation in order to not defend your own opinion is akin to a Trumpism. Again, you are above this.=== This made me laugh out loud… ===Since you asked for the record, I do not think Bailey’s polling is accurate. For decades campaigns have leaked internals that are far from reality. You also know this=== Friend, you’re gaslighting your own agreement, and you are then saying as you agree it’s not fair to the “facts” of context. Try again. - Arsenal - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 1:45 pm: ==But, they’re not.== I mean, in point of fact, one of them *is* saying so. And like I said earlier, even Bailey himself isn’t really talking about crime that much. His one ad is just all “I’m a farmer” stuff. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 1:47 pm: ===If both sides are spending millions talking about the issue in the last week before the election, the issue matters greatly. No matter how much we stick our heads in the stand.=== It’s a :30 ad of clarification. It’s not even a whole track or kind of thought. If anything, the ignoring of abortion and the refusal (except in misleading to their primary election stance) makes Republicans push back as their only avenue, if we are going to discuss why and what ads are doing here. (Sigh) - Mr. Middle Ground - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 1:55 pm: == But you didn’t say it’s not true… did ya?== In fact, I did. Literally…in that post. “I don’t support stolen election nonsense” ==This made me laugh out loud== Glad, you laughed. I’ll quote you, “ But you didn’t say it’s not true… did ya?” - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 1:57 pm: Please READ for comprehension; ===Saying the polls are wrong is the base thought to “the election is stolen”=== You taking it upon yourself as your burden is an odd way to read it, as the point I’m making is… the discussions to polling and their accuracy *is* the basis for election deniers. You’re not a victim to nothing I stated, lol - Dick Bigger Jr. - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:05 pm: Ok, trying to catch up on the discussion. I think the biggest leap is this : “my gut says people that are moved by this issue (R leaning independents) are not participating.” Pretty big leap to assume the leaners are the ones who care about crime and then also assuming the leaners who care about crime are the ones not answering polls. - Mr. Middle Ground - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:14 pm: ===the discussions to polling and their accuracy *is* the basis for election deniers=== Thank you for restating—I took it as referring to me but ok… I’ll move on then. I fundamentally disagree with you though. The basis for election deniers is their nonsense, conspiracy and anti-authority mindset not their belief or lack thereof in polling. I guess that means 538 (which has been cited on this blog frequently) is peddling “the basis” for election deniers then. To be short, people have questioned the accuracy of polls (and rightfully so) since polling was created. Let’s not make more of it then that…no matter the agenda we want to push. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:14 pm: Joe Rogan who is the most successful podcaster on earth, does 3 or 4 podcasts 2+ hour podcasts a week and has 11 million listeners John Oliver does 30 episodes a year of a 1/2 hour show and has 4.1 million viewers - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:21 pm: (Sigh) ===Joe Rogan=== What’s odd is that you want to dismiss any and all who first don’t listen to podcasts AND seniors not familiar with Rogan, what kind of flex is it that Rogan is the voice of… Old, angry, while, COVID-deniers who flock to conspiracy theories like flies to… cow patties - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:22 pm: I will wait for the Judge to decide if the respected commenters are wrong about whether States Attorney Glasgow and over 50 of his fellow State’s Attorneys are lying about the SAFE T act. Love to here why the remainder of States Attorneys, with the exception of Cook and Lake County , who oppose the law have not joined in the lawsuit - Mr. Middle Ground - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:23 pm: ===Pretty big leap=== Again, I don’t think it is as evidenced by the millions spent on the issue by both side. Anyway, don’t take my word on who is responding to pollsters. Here is 538 on nonresponse bias: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nonresponse-bias-ipsos-poll-findings/amp/ - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:25 pm: ===I fundamentally disagree=== Let’s start here, lol ===I fundamentally disagree with you though. The basis for election deniers is their nonsense, conspiracy and anti-authority mindset not their belief or lack thereof in polling.=== Tell me you’ve never talked to an election denier without telling me you’ve never talked to an election denier. It’s the foundation of the votes being wrong… the polling. ===Let’s not make more of it=== Allowing the election deniers the space to spread the false story that the election was stolen… because polling Denying your understand how the misinformation works is either willfully ignorant or blissfully unaware. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:27 pm: ===evidenced by the millions spent on the issue by both side=== Again, Republicans not being able to explain that they want victims of rape and incest to carry pregnancies through and refusing to discuss… in ads… that Republicans are extreme to pro-life, as an example… … what exactly are they gonna tout? - TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:41 pm: –I will wait for the Judge to decide– Well then Glasgow better file a case to put in front of a judge that relates to his publicly made claims about the act, and not some nonsense about generic legislative procedures that have nothing to do with the content of the bill. He’s lying so badly, you don’t even know what he’s lying about anymore. - Mr. Middle Ground - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:49 pm: === Allowing the election deniers the space to spread the false story that the election was stolen… because polling=== I have a ton of respect for you, OW. I enjoy your opinions, your wit and agree with you from time to time. But you are just plain wrong. If we can’t even question the accuracy of a poll (when Nate Silver at 538 and Nate Cohn at the New York Times are doing the same thing) then I don’t know what to say to you. Take off your partisan blinders for a minute. I ask again, is Nate Silver and Nate Cohn and Vox Media among many others “giving space” for election deniers? - Left of what - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:55 pm: You can question margins of error on a poll, yes. And I will say they are and have always been larger than what is reported. Pollsters typically report sampling margins of error, not the sampled moe. You can sample correctly but if the responses don’t match the demographics of your sample, that error goes up. The issue is you’re assuming these lean Rs who aren’t answering polls are the ones that care about crime. Where is that coming from? - Mr. Middle Ground - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:56 pm: ===Republicans not being able to explain they want=== Yeah, no other ad choices at all. The Bailey Campaign wouldn’t want to talk about record inflation, record gas prices, or the tragedies that impacted our heroes at the LaSalle Veterans Home either. They just went with crime because that’s all they got. Anyway, I for one can appreciate another classic OW whataboutism. Great argument. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:57 pm: ===I have a ton of respect for you,=== You don’t. It’s fine. I’d let that go. Discussions are just that. ===But you are just plain wrong=== … and yet at the insurrection, where the election deniers point out to polling and the results… Giving the worst elements who use election denying as the prongs of trying to overthrow a fair and free election… You are helping the worst elements of the American Experience Like here… ===Let’s not make more of it=== You are aiding and abetting democracy’s demise. I know, I know, “you respect me”… natch. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 2:59 pm: ===the LaSalle Veterans Home either.=== When was that an ad, how long ago, why isn’t it running now? ===They just went with crime because that’s all they got.=== For one, Uihlein and Proft were/are running a great many ads. Maybe your beef is with them, lol - Mr. Middle Ground - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 3:19 pm: ===You are aiding and abetting democracy’s demise=== I’ll ask again for the third time since you refuse to answer. If I am doing this, is Vox, 538, the NYTs and Pew Research also “abetting democracy’s demise?” Or is it just me because I have a different opinion than you regarding this specific post. I believe in listening to different opinions, including yours, avoiding echo chambers and being objective.. I respect you. Period. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 3:58 pm: ===I believe in listening to different opinions=== Those are called “alternative facts” So your opinion, and yet at the insurrection, “Stop the Steal”, different opinions were the election was stolen, “look at the polling” ===Or is it just me=== Alternative Facts are pushed by the likes of Kellyanne Conway, FoxNews… lol It’s likely an alternative fact you respect me. I’d still let that be. - Demoralized - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 4:08 pm: ==Joe Rogan who is the most successful podcaster on earth, does 3 or 4 podcasts 2+ hour podcasts a week and has 11 million listeners== Is there supposed to be a point there somewhere? - JS Mill - Monday, Oct 31, 22 @ 6:50 pm: ===Joe Rogan who is the most successful podcaster on earth, does 3 or 4 podcasts 2+ hour podcasts a week and has 11 million listeners== Is there supposed to be a point there somewhere?= Yes, LP’s point is that by his standards, The Wiggles should make all decisions on everything because they are so popular. Other than that, no he has no point but those darn clouds are getting on his nerves. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.