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Post-campaign notebook

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* All opposed Illinois congressional Democrats appear to have under-performed Biden 2020 results in their newly drawn districts, which is to be expected when the party controls the White House during a midterm. But they didn’t under-perform Biden enough to lose any seats. The Dem maps/candidates/messaging held and the GOP candidates/messaging failed…


* From Tom Kacich’s story on Nikki Budzinski

The congresswoman-elect, who is a University of Illinois graduate, did especially well in areas near the UI campus. Of nine Champaign-Urbana precincts where the student vote dominates, Budzinski currently has 3,580 votes to 424 for Deering.

Wow.

* Speaking of winning Democratic candidates, US Rep.-elect Delia Ramirez sent me a selfie from freshman orientation this morning…

* Neil Steinberg

J.B. Pritzker … what do you say? He must really, really want to be governor. He plowed $171 million into his 2018 victory, and then put another $152 million into 2022. Can anyone make an observation about him that isn’t somehow tainted by the third of a billion dollars worth of hype firehosed at us over the past four years?

Whew.

* From a Crain’s Chicago Business editorial about what the governor should do now

But now that he doesn’t have to talk voters—and organized labor—into supporting him, what other measures is Pritzker willing to take to further bend the pension liability curve downward?

In other words, they are demanding that the governor flip on the people who put him and kept him in office.

From the same editorial

Finally, there’s the elephant in the room: crime. Granted, the governor is not the mayor. Beyond the Illinois State Police, he has little direct control over any particular municipality’s approach to making Illinois’ streets safer. That said, he has a massive bully pulpit—and he must use it to send a message throughout that state that he understands the urgency of the public safety challenge and will do all he can to make crime prevention and effective policing a top priority in his second term.

So… the Bailey approach of just talking about it?

* Daily Herald

[ILGOP Chair Don Tracy] said Tuesday’s results stung, but he’s not sure what could have changed the party’s fortunes. “I’m head of the party, so obviously I can’t deny responsibility,” he said, “but I haven’t heard anybody so far say we could have done anything differently.”

Maybe ask more people?

* From last week

One bright sign for the party: It appears to have held on to the Cook County Board seat of the retiring Pete Silvestri. Though some mail ballots are yet to be counted, GOP nominee Matt Padgorski has a better than 1,000-vote lead over Democrat Maggie Trevor.

That lead has since narrowed to 178.

* Tribune

Durkin’s leadership role wasn’t the only casualty of the election. Several members of his leadership team — many of whom have records of bipartisanship — will be gone when the new legislature is sworn in early next year.

Along with Rep. Dan Brady of Bloomington, who ran unsuccessfully for secretary of state, Rep. Tom Demmer of Dixon lost for state treasurer and Rep. Avery Bourne of Morrisonville made a failed bid for lieutenant governor in the June GOP primary. Rep. David Welter of Morris lost to a more conservative challenger in the primary, and Rep. Keith Wheeler of Oswego was unseated in the general election. Rep. Mark Batinick of Plainfield, meanwhile, chose not to seek another term. Early Friday morning, Rep. Tim Butler of Springfield, who was reelected three days earlier, said he would resign before the new legislature is seated to take a job with the Illinois Railroad Association.

Rep. Butler, by the way, will be taking advantage of an ethics loophole that he spoke against after the bill was passed

This legislation barely scratches the surface of what needs to be accomplished for ethics reform. Debate on the bill revealed that the revolving door prohibition outlined in the legislation would allow current members of the legislature to become lobbyists for the General Assembly one day after their retirement. This is not real reform. This is the status-quo!

As long as he resigns before his current term ends, he can begin lobbying for the railroads on the first day of the 103rd General Assembly.

* SJ-R

The future remains promising for Illinois Democrats, but Redfield still sees some room for improvement when it comes to attracting working-class support which has increasingly favored the GOP in recent elections. The tent is large for the Democrats, which can lend way to head-butting between the moderate and progressive wings.

He said the red wave never cresting may cause some Democrats to think the gap does not need to be bridged.

“I thought the Republicans were going to do a lot, lot better,” Redfield said. “Since they didn’t, then the temptation on the Democrat’s side will be to say ‘Well, we’re doing great.’… I don’t think that’s a good policy.”

Funny how people seem to forget that Black and Latino working class voters are solidly Democratic here.

* The Hill

A striking 45 percent of voters in Michigan’s gubernatorial race named abortion as their top priority — far higher than any other issue. Those voters broke 77 percent to 22 percent for Whitmer over her Republican opponent, conservative commentator Tudor Dixon.

Whitmer, who Republicans had believed to be vulnerable, won reelection by more than 10 points.

* Isabel’s roundup…

       

33 Comments »
  1. - Amalia - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:06 pm:

    Matt Podgorski is no Pete Silvestri. terrible result.


  2. - Anyone Remember - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:10 pm:

    ===In other words, they are demanding that the governor flip on the people who put him and kept him in office.===

    That is why I voted for the Constitutional Amendment. The monied interests, across a broad range of issues, will never give up in their crusade against the working / middle classes and unions.


  3. - Demoralized - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:12 pm:

    ==but I haven’t heard anybody so far say we could have done anything differently==

    Maybe you shouldn’t be in charge if you can’t see why you lost. Why would they leave a guy in charge who doesn’t think they did anything wrong when clearly the voters thought otherwise?


  4. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:12 pm:

    === “but I haven’t heard anybody so far say we could have done anything differently.”===

    How about not embrace racist thinkers, insurrection apologists and conspiracy theorists… like you’ve been doing since this…

    === So, whatever your political leanings, wherever you live - if you want to fight corruption, restore fiscal sanity, grow our economy, and stand for law and order - you’re on our team. It’s time to suit up, work together, and bring home some wins for the people of Illinois.”===

    I’d do that different, but I’m don’t embrace vile in a political party like Tracy does.


  5. - Pundent - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:13 pm:

    =“but I haven’t heard anybody so far say we could have done anything differently.”=

    Well here’s a top tip for Don Tracy. Illinois has never shown signs that it’s ready to embrace racists, insurrectionists, election deniers and the many others the ILGOP covets these days.. With few exceptions they remain very unpopular in this state. So perhaps you could acknowledge that reality and realize that if this is your base, you’ll largely be on the outside looking in.


  6. - Demoralized - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:21 pm:

    ==restore fiscal sanity==

    I don’t know where this argument is coming from. Illinois hasn’t been as fiscally sound as it is now in years.


  7. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:30 pm:

    Regardless of party, the get re-elected and immediately quit stunt Rep. Butler just pulled disgusts me.


  8. - twowaystreet - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:31 pm:

    ==As long as he resigns before his current term ends, he can begin lobbying for the railroads on the first day of the 103rd General Assembly.==

    Anyone who thinks Republicans bash Dems on ethics for anything other than political points will be proven wrong time and time again.

    And underscores how much appreciation I have for Greg Harris for finishing his term and not resigning to appoint a successor and give them the incumbent bump for this last election.


  9. - DuPage Moderate - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:34 pm:

    Good, get rid of the whole State Republican party. Get rid of Jim Zay in DuPage. What a bunch of out-of-touch losers.

    Time to bring in fresh blood grounded in 2022.


  10. - Ducky LaMoore - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:36 pm:

    “Can anyone make an observation about him that isn’t somehow tainted by the third of a billion dollars worth of hype firehosed at us over the past four years?”

    Okay… let me try and answer the question…. He is a better governor than the most recent four governors. No amount of money will convince me otherwise. The only thing that could convince me otherwise is JB himself. And he hasn’t done it.


  11. - Annonin' - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:36 pm:

    “I’m head of the party, so obviously I can’t deny responsibility,” he said, “but I haven’t heard anybody so far say we could have done anything differently,” President, Tracy Park Improvement Assoc.
    We know everyone has seen Don wandering his park waiting for GovJunk to return, but they could have tried to offer some real plans for the future besides union busting, mandated gun carry, jail for certain health care procedures. But they blew it when the Court wrote the Hobbs decision. It zero’d GOPies credibility from coast to coast.


  12. - Blake - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:36 pm:

    Between Pritzker’s margin of victory being almost identical to Whitmer’s, the Republican Presidential nominee fairing better in Illinois in 2020 than 2016, Democratic 2022 underperforming Biden 2020, I wonder how well the 2022 map will hold up in 2028 or 2030. I’m not calling for Illinois to be a swing state in 2028 or 2032 Presidential election, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we continue to see Illinois elections look more like Michigan.


  13. - Socially DIstant Watcher - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:37 pm:

    ==But now that he doesn’t have to talk voters—and organized labor—into supporting him, what other measures is Pritzker willing to take to further bend the pension liability curve downward?==

    Like, I dunno, putting surplus funds towards the pension debt? I bet if JB did something like that, Crain’s would really stand up and cheer!


  14. - Big Dipper - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:38 pm:

    Maybe legislators who care about ethics should decline to communicate with Butler and his client for a suitable cooling-off period.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:39 pm:

    === Can anyone make an observation about him that isn’t somehow tainted by the third of a billion dollars worth of hype firehosed at us over the past four years?===

    See…

    Newspaper endorsements, bond ratings narratives.

    Please stop being so lazy.


  16. - Suburban Mom - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:45 pm:

    ==Funny how people seem to forget that Black and Latino working class voters are solidly Democratic here.==

    So often when people in politics say “working class” the “white” is silent. When he said the “working class” is trending GOP, he absolutely did not mean Black or Latino voters, whom he is not mentally including in the working class.


  17. - Benjamin - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:56 pm:

    I wonder if the underperformance compared to Biden ahs anything to do with the new districts created as part of the remap. Gerrymandering often creates many weak districts for the majority party as a way to maximize their advantage, while packing minority party voters into a few extremely strong districts (i.e., “packing and cracking”).


  18. - Chicagonk - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:04 pm:

    If the ILGOP doesn’t provide a plan for winning a statewide election, who in their right mind would give them money? Maybe the head of the GOP should be someone from the suburbs instead of central Illinois.


  19. - Lester Holt’s Mustache - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:12 pm:

    == willing to take to further bend the pension liability curve downward? ==

    Isn’t this the same editorial board that originally championed Rauner’s budget antics in an attempt to “bend the pension liability curve downward”, and then flip-flopped when that later became a politically unpalatable fiscal nightmare? Pick a lane, man


  20. - Manchester - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:18 pm:

    Don Tracy doesn’t know what they could have dome differently. Seriously? Try getting rid of the culture wars. Commit to treating all people equally including people of color, Jews, Muslims, Gays, Trans and women. Stay out of people’s bedrooms and out of their health care decisions. Stop trying to making our country into a Christian Theocracy. This goes for the national GOP and the state GOP.


  21. - Ares - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:29 pm:

    JB is a philanthropist who has shown an interest in making a difference in government, as Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, and Nelson Rockefeller did, with great success. If only Floridians or Texans were so fortunate.


  22. - Pundent - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:34 pm:

    =“but I haven’t heard anybody so far say we could have done anything differently,”=

    Tracy epitomizes what it means to live in a bubble. His party got thrashed statewide by double digits. In the aftermath of that there should be no shortage of suggestions regarding what it could have been done differently. But Don Tracy sees nothing wrong. The inference is clear - we’re (the voters) the problem not the party.


  23. - Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:36 pm:

    Benjamin, these numbers aren’t based on the old districts. It’s the precincts in the new districts.


  24. - TJ - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:37 pm:

    The party that disdains the gen z vote and which is wholly opposed to student loan relief got crushed on a college campus?

    Golly gee, what a shock! Talk about a dumb stance for the GOP to take. Coupled with their social issues, they’ve completely written off the under 25 vote.


  25. - Mr K - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:55 pm:

    Another way of looking at this is that the third-of-a-billion spent by Pritzker over two election cycles is what’s needed to get Illinois out of the hole it’s been in for years. Getting out of the hole is expensive — and it seems Pritzker is the only one (over the past several disastrous governors) who’s actually made a fiscal difference for the positive.

    Rauner was supposed to do this — get us “back on track” — but his failure (or — eventually — his complete lack of desire) was spectacular and long lasting (and expensive).

    Pritzker is, indeed, fixing it. And clearly it ain’t cheap.


  26. - wizsouth - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:56 pm:

    How sad for the conservative bulk of Illinois that your state is controlled by voters in Chicago, St. Louis and Springfield and by gerrymandered seats running the length of your good state.


  27. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:59 pm:

    === How sad==

    “Conservatives” lost all 7 statewide seats.

    How does gerrymandering figure into that.

    Take your time…


  28. - TJ - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:59 pm:

    == How sad for the conservative bulk of Illinois that your state is controlled by voters in Chicago, St. Louis and Springfield and by gerrymandered seats running the length of your good state. ==

    Oh no, a clear majority of the state’s population voted for the state to be run a way as opposed to what a clear minority of the state’s population wanted. The horror.

    And what state are you from, perchance? Because, with the exception of Iowa, all of our neighbors are heavily gerrymandered in the GOP’s favor. No complaints there?


  29. - MisterJayEm - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 5:03 pm:

    “Can anyone make an observation about him that isn’t somehow tainted by the third of a billion dollars worth of hype firehosed at us over the past four years?”

    Who can say something about his time as governor that isn’t based on something that they learned while he was governor?

    How do that make logic?

    – MrJM


  30. - Big Dipper - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 5:20 pm:

    ==But Don Tracy sees nothing wrong==

    He’s an out of touch, 70+ white man. He doesn’t want to change with the times, he wants to go back to the 50s.


  31. - JoanP - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 5:45 pm:

    = I haven’t heard anybody so far say we could have done anything differently. =

    Maybe he should start reading Capitol Fax.


  32. - JS Mill - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 7:11 pm:

    Shorter ILGOP and their faithful…

    “We have the democrats right where we want them.”

    =How sad for the conservative bulk of Illinois that your state is controlled by voters in Chicago, St. Louis and Springfield and by gerrymandered seats running the length of your good state.=

    All math to the contrary.


  33. - Pot calling kettle - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:50 pm:

    ===Maybe he should start reading Capitol Fax.===

    That was the first thought that popped into my mind when I read his comment. (Although, he should probably ignore Lucky P.)


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