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Proft offers an explanation

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Dan Proft explains to Greg Hinz why his messaging failed

The first: “Making personal safety the referendum question was the best play we had. It put Pritzker (and Lightfoot) on defense the entire race. It kept him focused on me rather than Bailey and it had the added benefit of broad bipartisan opposition–prosecutors, judges, sheriffs, et al.” So it worked, up to a point.

However, he continued, “At the end of the day, as in New York, there are not enough motivated voters, to the extent they exist at all, to make a change even with broad agreement on an issue that was essentially even with abortion in terms of animating votes (per a lot of polling).” Or as he put it earlier in the email, “Many of those Rs you think are in the suburbs aren’t. And many who are left are either fatalistic–about a lot more than Bailey (see the congressional and leg(islative) races)–or cowered into inaction by the Leftist mob’s vilification.”

Retort

Proft “doesn’t do meaningful research on voters and tailor messaging to it. He just figures out what will make Dick Uihlein get his rocks off,” says Tom Bowen, who currently is working for Lightfoot. “Voters have competing priorities. You can’t just say ‘crime, bad. BOO!’ and hope that works if you don’t credibly put forward a plan as an alternative. Also, you can’t divorce that from what’s going on elsewhere.”

The crime issue failed spectacularly in the primary for Richard Irvin and then Proft amped up the volume to 11 in the general. Only Proft and Uihlein believed it could work, apparently, to the tune of $42 million.

       

66 Comments »
  1. - Demoralized - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:47 am:

    ==cowered into inaction by the Leftist mob’s vilification==

    That’s certainly a way to win votes in the suburbs. Tell them they are too stupid to know what’s right.


  2. - Demoralized - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:48 am:

    ==It kept him focused on me rather than Bailey==

    I would disagree with that. The Governor could walk and chew gum at the same time. He was putting plenty of effort directly opposing Bailey.


  3. - DougChicago - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:51 am:

    Cicero Dan Prof(i)t didn’t believe it would work. He just believed it would get Dick Uihlein to part with $42 million.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:52 am:

    Here’s the truth…

    === The crime issue failed spectacularly in the primary for Richard Irvin and then Proft amped up the volume to 11 in the general. Only Proft and Uihlein believed it could work, apparently, to the tune of $42 million.===

    “ Only Proft and Uihlein believed it could work, apparently, to the tune of $42 million.”

    Proft’s grift won.

    The message to maximize the grift was the goal of the exercise.

    If you ask Proft an honest answer to a policy choice in his messaging, you are likely as ridiculously unaware Proft is grifting off Uihlein.


  5. - NotRich - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:55 am:

    Proft and Mike Z are both sitting back and laughing at us.. and between belly laughs, they are counting their money.. The ONLY 2 Repub winners from last Tuesday


  6. - DuPage Saint - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:56 am:

    How much money does this guy have to throw away before he realizes he is getting nothing for it? I assume he is a very smart business man would he spend that kind of money over and over again to buy machinery that doesn’t work. I would be more than happy to take a paycheck from him m and do nothing but I guess Proft has that job locked up


  7. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:56 am:

    === “Many of those Rs you think are in the suburbs aren’t. And many who are left are either fatalistic–about a lot more than Bailey (see the congressional and leg(islative) races)–or cowered into inaction by the Leftist mob’s vilification.”===

    This is the gibberish of a Professor Harold Hill explaining how a “pool hall” will bring Trouble

    The Uihleins’ checks cashed… all the same… the grift worked flawlessly

    “Oh we got trouble…”

    Total. Gibberish.


  8. - ChicagoVinny - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:57 am:

    In NY they had plenty of moderate dems reinforcing GOP crime talking points and it cost them. IL dems seemed to hold together better.


  9. - jpf - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:58 am:

    And yet the abortion issue animated voters.

    Go figure


  10. - Pundent - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:00 pm:

    Dan Proft’s objective isn’t winning, it’s getting paid. He’s more than happy to cash the checks of millionaires and billionaires while allowing them to broadcast their grievances. Both Proft and Uihlein will be back and the result will predictably be the same.


  11. - vern - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:03 pm:

    === Many of those Rs you think are in the suburbs aren’t.===

    Turns out that telling your base to move to Florida and die of preventable disease was bad GOTV. Who would’ve thought?

    The other former Rs in the suburbs aren’t “cowed by vilification,” they’re just Democrats now. They’re pro choice, anti gun and pro public education. They’re also much less Christian than downstate or even most of the city. Republicans have stopped trying to win votes from suburban moderates, so they don’t get votes from suburban moderates.


  12. - Big Dipper - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:05 pm:

    Proft is incompetent at his chosen profession. Time for him to try something outside politics.


  13. - Roadrager - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:07 pm:

    ==cowered into inaction by the Leftist mob’s vilification==

    “The wokes and their Antifa polling places kept real Americans away from the ballot boxes. If you count the people who might have voted Republican, but didn’t, we’d dominate this election cycle.”

    Never. Their. Fault.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:07 pm:

    === Proft is incompetent===

    The *goal* of the exercise… is to grift the maximum amount of cash from his patron(s)

    If you are thinking Proft is incompetent you are not looking at what the goal was.


  15. - Roadrager - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:07 pm:

    ==Proft is incompetent at his chosen profession. Time for him to try something outside politics.==

    His bank accounts will gladly tell you otherwise.


  16. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:08 pm:

    -Proft and Mike Z are both sitting back and laughing at us.. and between belly laughs, they are counting their money..-

    Not me. I’m laughing right back because they lost. They can laugh at the suckers that fund them all they want.


  17. - Here we go - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:12 pm:

    The crime issue succeeded at putting Democrats on defense in 102 counties. On that level, it was effective just as it was the third most salient issue nationally. One difference in Illinois - we have a party leader capable of burying the other side with campaign spending. And he did, which negates the impact of any issue from the other side.


  18. - NIU Grad - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:15 pm:

    “It kept him focused on me rather than Bailey”

    Great strategy when you’re trying to get someone to vote for Bailey and not you…Yikes, the ego on the guy.


  19. - cermak_rda - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:15 pm:

    Does this imply that this is the last election that Proft is going to participate in IL? Given he just admitted there aren’t enough Republicans in the state to win elections?


  20. - Michel - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:17 pm:

    The cult of personality among GOP consultants needs to come to an end. In this cycle, Proft and Z have done more damage to the IL GOP Party than any 2 non-elected officials in its history. The Irvin campaign was a manifestation of overgrown hubris. It was bad strategically, it was bad tactically and ultimately it wasn’t believable.

    Proft has never won. Peddled fake polls to justify more spending and did everything he could to elevate himself much to the detriment of the candidate he was supporting.

    And while both would bristle at the notion of comparisons, the fact is they both ran campaigns with no accountability mechanisms that funneled millions into their own companies.

    IL GOP needs a fresh start minus the egos and failed past.


  21. - Montrose - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:20 pm:

    OW is 100% correct. Proft had an audience of one to convince - Dick Uihlein. Swaying voters never entered into the equation.


  22. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:24 pm:

    I agree with Tom Bowen, but his current client does not seem to understand how crime motivates voters either. What’s the plan to address crime? It’s mostly just gaslighting about crime stats from the 5th floor. Voters are much smarter than many people think. Proft’s dog whistling didn’t work, but I still think voters want a candidate to explain what their plan is to reduce crime.


  23. - Homebody - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:33 pm:

    This needs a Principal Skinner “am I out of touch?” meme.


  24. - Terry Salad - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:33 pm:

    “Making personal safety the referendum question was the best play we had.”

    The ads said “Civilization is on the ballot…”

    That’s quite a difference.


  25. - Amalia - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:41 pm:

    “…Leftist mob’s vilification….” nope. Women’s agency.


  26. - South side cubs fan - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:42 pm:

    The crime / safety issue certainly didn’t help the republicans at the top of the ticket, but I’d say it sure helped them at the bottom of the ticket. Races involving judges, sheriffs, SAs and county Board members were definitely impacted.


  27. - Dotnonymous - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:43 pm:

    “So it worked, up to a point.”

    Every convict’s lament.


  28. - Boone's is Back - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:46 pm:

    I think it could have worked if the ticket wasn’t stacked with right wing nuts. People do care about crime but to Bowen’s point, what are you going to do about it?


  29. - Sir Reel - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:48 pm:

    “Not enough motivated voters.” It’s the voters fault.


  30. - Dotnonymous - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:48 pm:

    Did the Uihleins get…suckered?


  31. - ArchPundit - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:52 pm:

    Proft works on the vibes — of big donors. He is able to hit the key issues for people who are completely ensconced in the right wing bubble and they think he is absolutely right and like everything else in that movement, it cannot fail, it can only be failed so Dan doesn’t fail, the voters do.


  32. - Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:53 pm:

    ===and county Board members were definitely impacted===

    In DuPage? Lake?


  33. - Southern Dude - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:58 pm:

    === I think it could have worked if the ticket wasn’t stacked with right wing nuts.===

    Agree. I live in a heavy Republican area, and even people around here thought Bailey was a clown


  34. - Pot calling kettle - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:59 pm:

    I’d love to know what Proft’s cut is. How much of the $42 million was spent on stuff and how much is in Dan’s pocket. Even if it’s only 10%, that’s a nice paycheck, especially for such a poor showing.


  35. - Realty Bites - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 1:03 pm:

    Danny is a six time loser and a grifter of the highest order.

    The Eastern Bloc, Danny Proft, Jeanie Ives - different clowns, same Circus.

    Even Barry Goldwater told Jerry Falwell to shut up and sit down as Goldwater thought that group was extreme and dangerous.


  36. - Streator Curmudgeon - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 1:20 pm:

    Sooo, were the Proft “newspapers” a success? Did they flip a lot of undecideds Bailey’s way? There must be a way to measure success, or Proft is not a knowledgeable/competent direct marketer.

    OW is correct. The man who signs the checks is the only one who really counts for Proft.

    Which raises the questions, does Dick Uihlein read CapFax and is he as thick as a stump where Proft is concerned?


  37. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 1:27 pm:

    ==It kept him focused on me rather than Bailey==

    To the extent that this is true, it was a problem. Bailey was underfunded and had little of his own name-recognition. Stepping into his spotlight hardly helped.


  38. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 1:46 pm:

    === and Z have done===

    Nope.

    The person who did the biggest damage to the ILGOP…

    The Democrat Diana Rauner.

    Blaming Z for Diana’s success is being silly to what happened after Z won with Rauner


  39. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 2:12 pm:

    ==It kept him focused on me rather than Bailey==

    Seems like he had enough cash to blast you both at the same time. See, e.g., the scoreboard.


  40. - Stormsw7706 - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 2:30 pm:

    What a grifter. The billionaires he soaks are complete fools. They deserve each other.


  41. - Jerry - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 2:42 pm:

    Regarding the U-Lines: remember to bring your reusable bags to the store when you go shopping.


  42. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 2:51 pm:

    Who would have thought one Illinois billionaire 150 million in spending would be more successful than another Illinois billionaire’s 42 million?


  43. - cermak_rd - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 2:57 pm:

    The newspapers struck me as a wierd ploy. The only people I could see reading them seriously (e.g. not just for lols) would be older people who 1. have a habit of voting more regularly and 2. tend to vote GOP. So it struck me as preaching to your own choir, who’s already at the church doors.
    Younger people, I think, would be less likely to read a stray paper that made its way into their mail. I mean, if I want news I can pick up my laptop, my kindle, ask Alexa, checkout my roku… Reading a dead tree newspaper is just such an old timey activity.


  44. - JS Mill - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:04 pm:

    Ahhh…it is the old “it isn’t me, it is all of you that are wrong” defense. LOL, worked like a charm.


  45. - Amalia - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:14 pm:

    say what you will about Proft, guys like him profit from the Uihleins and Griffins of the world. their theocratic vision of a Roman Catholic hierarchy policy driven government is dangerous. if you can, avoid what makes them wealthy.


  46. - Demoralized - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:19 pm:

    ==Who would have thought one Illinois billionaire 150 million in spending would be more successful than another Illinois billionaire’s 42 million?==

    Again, it couldn’t have possibly been that your ideas were rejected could it? You just want to keep making excuses and whining about it. You’re never going to win if you can’t acknowledge the people don’t like what you are trying to sell.


  47. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:29 pm:

    === Who would have thought one Illinois billionaire 150 million in spending would be more successful than another Illinois billionaire’s 42 million?===

    - LP -

    The 56+% is the ILGOP

    If you can’t come to grips with that… then again you’re fine with racist thinkers, insurrection apologists and conspiracy theorists in your party.

    You embrace them. Like Chairman Tracy.

    You constantly say “Bailey couldn’t win”…

    … you never say you don’t embrace Bailey

    Why? It’s because daily, consistently, and overwhelmingly supported Bailey stances.


  48. - South side cubs fan - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:32 pm:

    ===and county Board members were definitely impacted===

    ====In DuPage? Lake?====

    Take a look at Will. There wasn’t been a republican elected county wide in a decade and someone knocked off Shawn Walsh (Larry’s son) for regional superintendent of schools. The Republican candidates for sheriff and treasurer are ahead (I expect they’ll lose when final votes are counted l, but it’s razor close). Female judicial candidate probably lost. And the Dem app ct candidate got smoked. AND the GOP county board candidates did extremely well, tying up the county board on a poorly-drawn map (courtesy of Jennifer Bertino Tartant). Ya think the safety act talk had nothing to do with this?!?


  49. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:34 pm:

    === The Republican candidates for sheriff and treasurer are ahead (I expect they’ll lose when final votes are counted l, but it’s razor close). Female judicial candidate probably lost===

    So, in other words, you don’t know.


  50. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:35 pm:

    === GOP county board candidates did extremely well, tying up the county board on a poorly-drawn map (courtesy of Jennifer Bertino Tartant). Ya think the safety act talk had nothing to do with this?!?===

    You’re suppose to be convincing, with facts… “ya think” isn’t a fact.

    Come back with examples.

    Thanks.


  51. - South side cubs fan - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:37 pm:

    Of course I don’t know yet; there are still votes to be counted. But even if the Dems manage to win all three of those races (which I doubt; the judicial race has a pretty good gap), the republicans did better in Will County than they have in a very long time.


  52. - South side cubs fan - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:41 pm:

    I gave you several examples. Looks like you prefer to ignore them because it’s contrary to your preferred outcome. BTW I can’t stand Proft and I voted dem. I also talked with a lot of dem candidates and they were rattled by all this safety act discussion.


  53. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:42 pm:

    === Of course I don’t know yet; there are still votes to be counted. But…===

    When you know, come back and tell what you find.


  54. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:43 pm:

    === Looks like you prefer to ignore them because it’s contrary to your preferred outcome.===

    You just said you don’t know. You just said that, lol

    === than they have in a very long time.===

    Winners… make policy.


  55. - South side cubs fan - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:47 pm:

    1. Republicans wins regional superintendent race over a Walsh
    2. Republicans bring treasurer and sheriff races to the brink when in past years they were blowouts
    3. Republicans tie county Board in newly drawn dem districts
    4. App ct candidate clobbered in Will County

    Sorry these facts have you feeling triggered.


  56. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:53 pm:

    === to the brink===

    Winners… make policy

    === Sorry these facts have you feeling triggered.===

    Your first cite is a regional school superintendent… I’m not triggered, I’m laughing… since you told me… you don’t know results.

    LOL

    These are known unknowns, amirite?


  57. - South side cubs fan - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:06 pm:

    I already told you which races are still in question and it’s not all of them. It’s not even most of them. I am more interested in intellectual discussion but you are only interested in Facebook-style snark. Have a good day.


  58. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:11 pm:

    ===I am more interested in intellectual discussion===

    Actual election results by which one can see things with facts is an intellectual discussion.

    Keep *that* in mind… when you have things where you openly say you don’t know.

    When you know…


  59. - Obamas Puppy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:13 pm:

    A fool and his money…will be parted by Danny Proft


  60. - South side cubs fan - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:21 pm:

    Approximate twenty contested races in Will County, and all are settled except for two or maybe three. Come back when you come to grips with the situation.


  61. - Thomas Paine - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:24 pm:

    I think that the most important thing that Proft wants us all to take away is that he definitely didn’t get his rear-end handed to him by a crew of women. Proft is really bending over to make that point.

    So I think its important to emphasize that for all of the misogyny hurled at Caprara and Abudayyeh on social media in particular over the last four years, they’ve had him pegged since day one.

    Proft seems to be saying that Bailey had no chance of winning.

    When did that change in their minds is my question? Hasn’t the polling told them that since day one? Certainly that must be what Caprara’s polling said.

    Some are arguing Proft is terrible at his job. Others are arguing that Bailey was the wrong candidate.

    These are not mutually exclusive terms, in fact they are different ways of saying the same thing.

    If Proft cared about Conservatism, he could have seen Bailey was doomed from the start. Now he’s pretty much declared that a conservative cannot win illinois, along with every pundit.

    He might have killed his own goose.


  62. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:25 pm:

    I suggest…

    “Approximate twenty contested races in Will County, and all are settled except for two or maybe three. Come back with the results since you want them cited.”

    Try that.


  63. - Ben Tre - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:29 pm:

    “I was right, the voters were wrong” - D. Proft


  64. - MisterJayEm - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:32 pm:

    “So it worked, up to a point.”

    It worked for an electorate two towns over — you wouldn’t know them.

    – MrJM


  65. - Shytown - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:34 pm:

    What’s Proft been smoking? Lol.


  66. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:35 pm:

    === The crime issue succeeded at putting Democrats on defense in 102 counties. On that level, it was effective===

    Narrator: it failed miserably at the real goal, winning elections.

    (Tips cap to - Streator Curmudgeon - and - Montrose -)


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