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Republicans assess the damage

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Jake Griffin at the Daily Herald

“Everybody said this election was about crime and inflation,” said Tim Schneider, the state GOP chairman from 2014 to 2021. “But suburban women voted pro-choice, and they voted on the abortion issue, which I believe sunk us.” […]

“Until so many Republican voters stop looking as if they accept Trump as their savior, these elections are destined to go down the toilet for us,” said Arlen Gould, a former staffer on many high-profile Illinois GOP campaigns. “And it’s never going to come back as long as we’re a party of election deniers and grievances.” […]

Gould believes in many cases, any stigma attached to the Republican Party was earned by many of the party’s long-held platforms.

“We’re on the wrong side of history with abortion, gay marriage and LGBTQ rights. We’re wrong,” he said. “And what are we offering now? What are our programs? What do we stand for other than negativity?”

* Rick Pearson at the Tribune

The GOP losses symbolize a political party that has failed to adapt to the changing diverse demographics of the suburbs, moving from a message of social moderation and fiscal conservatism to a rigid-right ideology that is aging along with its dwindling base. […]

”We had lots of really great candidates” who were “constantly attacked by the Democrats on abortion, made-up issues and alleged extremism,” [ILGOP Chair Don Tracy] said. “In the coming days/weeks, we will be doing a deeper analysis on the elections and will share our thoughts on how best to move forward.” […]

Unofficial returns showed Bailey received about 37.5% of the vote in Lake County while the official count showed Rauner got 58% of the county’s ballots eight years ago. This year, Pritzker got nearly 60% of the county’s votes, according to unofficial returns.

An AP VoteCast survey of Illinois general election voters found suburban voters representing 49% of the state’s vote and supporting Pritzker 57% to 37% for Bailey. Suburban women, always a key demographic in statewide races, cast 26% of Illinois’ votes for governor and they went 61% to 31% for Pritzker, the survey showed. […]

Durkin noted his votes in favor of ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment and a previous proposal to ban assault weapons as examples of positions on “commonsense issues” in the voter-rich and increasingly Democratic-leaning suburbs.

Leader Durkin still doesn’t get it, or isn’t publicly admitting it. His party’s official hardcore stance on abortion has ruined them in the suburbs. And that started well before Donald Trump was elected president.

…Adding… I didn’t see this story, so I stand corrected on Durkin

Durkin specifically urged Illinois Republicans to rethink the politics of guns, abortion, and gay rights.

“Whoever succeeds me, we need to do more to not take these strident positions on issues related to firearms, to issues of reproductive health, issues relating to the gay and lesbian community. There are many people who feel very strong about those issues who would vote for Republicans,” Durkin said.

       

63 Comments »
  1. - Concerned Observer - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:30 am:

    Also, no, Tim Schneider, “everybody” did not say that “this election was about crime and inflation”. I cannot count the number of times it was pointed out here and elsewhere that voters consistently put crime 3rd or lower when polled.

    Either the GOP is listening to only the voices in its circle, or it’s not listening to any voices at all.


  2. - Roadiepig - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:31 am:

    So many of my longtime friends who went all-MAG 6 years ago are still saying Trump will win in 2024. After all, everyone they know ( except my wife and I) still loves him and his “ideas”. Living in an echo chamber appears to have made them immune to understanding that they are still the minority of the people in the country, and a super minority here in Illinois. They pushed any future Edgars and Thompsons out of the party because they were RINOS, and then they can’t believe they keep loosing. After tomorrow’s announcement by TFG, any reflection about the failures of the 2022 election will be gone for a large percentage of the remaining Illinois Republican voters. Welcome my friends to the election that never ends…


  3. - Dysfunction Junction - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:35 am:

    Recognizing the problem is one thing. Doing something about it is another. Not sure how you put the MAGA genie back in the bottle after 6 plus years of free reign on right-wing TV and social media. It may be some long years in the desert for the former party of GOP “normies” like Reagan, Edgar, Thompson, etc.


  4. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:38 am:

    ==“Everybody said this election was about crime and inflation,”==

    Yeah, but there’s a few problems here. First of all, Republicans only ran on those issues in an abstract sense. They tried on crime, but it all boiled down “we should repeal this one bill you don’t really understand, and do nothing about January 6 or mass shootings and we should actively root AGAINST the FBI when it investigates Trump”. That’s a muddled message, and people’s views on crime are already muddled (they hate it, of course, but what do they actually want politicians to do about it? Ask 10 people and you’ll get 11 different answers).

    On inflation, Republicans barely even tried to run on. I think Bailey did an event near a gas station’s price sign? But it’s not like he had even an implausible plan to address it.

    And then in addition Republicans keep getting waylaid by their weirdo wing. Bailey’s school and his obsession with Pritzker’s hands. Kitty litter in schools. QAnon and pronouns and drag queens.

    They never really cleanly delivered the “crime and inflation” message.


  5. - Demoralized - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:39 am:

    The Republicans haven’t seem to learn any lessons in the past. They continue to remain in the super-minority. If they haven’t figured it out by now I don’t know when they will figure it out. They simply fail to recognize that their social views are not supported by the majority. Until they figure that out they will continue to lose. They need to get away from “purity” and move towards reality. Until they do they are doomed to repeat history over and over and over.


  6. - Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:41 am:

    “We’re on the wrong side of history”

    Bub, St. Ronnie of Regan started the GOP down that path four decades ago. Granted he, and his successor, were smart enough to stay out of the bedrooms, but courting evangelicals was the Gip’s thang.

    Sow, reap.


  7. - Demoralized - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:41 am:

    By the way, I think there are a few people who owe OW an apology. He stated over and over that abortion would be a big part of this election. The Republicans on here said he was wrong. Well . . . guess what . . .


  8. - Anyone Remember - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:42 am:

    Parties are either “Big Tent” or become “smaller and smaller” in an attempt to be “purer and purer” … .

    Either the IL GOP goes back to the days of “The Jims” or their future is Party Platforms about the Freemasons.


  9. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:44 am:

    MAGA will fizzle out.

    How many people will make the mistake of voting for another 78 year old for President after seeing how that works out.

    Biggest surprise for me was crime is much lower in New York than Chicago but the issue swung several house districts to the Republicans.

    The difference is New York has had no cash bail since 2019 and it has made residents less safe. Illinois residents will quickly find that out soon

    https://www.city-journal.org/new-yorks-bail-reform-has-increased-crime


  10. - Peoria Native - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:47 am:

    Here is one item where Durkin is doing damage control on Trump. In the primary, the various campaign committees that Durkin controls sent out various mailers and other social medial items claiming that the Durkin primary candidate was more closely tied to Trump than the other opponent. So, Durkin tried to use Trump to his electoral advantage and was whitewashed in Peoria and other areas throughout the state during the primary. Those wasted resources in largely Republican districts could have been utilized in the General Election. Just an observation, can’t have it both ways.


  11. - Candy Dogood - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:47 am:

    ===Not sure how you put the MAGA genie back in the bottle===

    The Illinois GOP didn’t try to offer any meaningful leadership on the topic that was something beyond the MAGA talking points or derivatives of those talking points. They failed to offer leadership for conservatives in the state and failed to offer an example of anything that they would do in power that would actually improve the lives of Illinoisans. They squandered an opportunity and then sought to destroy and discredit Adam Kinzinger as he blazed the trail they could have followed.

    Instead of leading, they stick their finger in the wind and try to guess where the mob of right wing bigots is headed with enough urgency to get towards the front so they can pretend that they’re the leaders of a violent mob that they have created through their decades of hate filled anti social messaging.

    Anyone person with the potential to he a great leader isn’t going to be a part of an organization that uses the mob’s headwinds as the basis for their decision making.

    They gave Chris Miller money. They picked a path. They have no interest in curbing their mob because they have nothing else to offer the world.


  12. - Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:48 am:

    ===Illinois residents will quickly find that out soon===

    And if your alternative is to run 100 percent anti-abortion candidates… ?


  13. - TheUpperRoom - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:49 am:

    We heard all of this stuff on a national level in 2012, after Obama defeated Romney and won several swing states. They went further right instead.

    Illinois doesn’t have quite as bad of a GOP problem as some of the red and purple states do, but I think voters are looking at the GOP to call out and sort out the extremism in their party, and that doesn’t happen. They either embrace it or pretend it isn’t there. Illinois is a bastion of complacent, moderate republicans who are virtually silent on the extremists in their party.


  14. - Demoralized - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:49 am:

    LP

    I’m convinced you are a spokesman for some politician. You are perhaps one of the most disciplined person I have seen who stays on message regardless of the reality of the situation. You still have not recognized that your party got a beat down in this election. Here you are still talking about crime when that clearly was not an issue that the suburbs cared about. You’re attitude is exactly the reason why your party will continue to be in the super minority. You either don’t get it or you do get it and simply don’t care that you’re viewpoint is a loser.


  15. - Highland IL - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:53 am:

    Devore is ready to start a new grift - American Freedom Society. He’s already asking for money to beat the republican establishment. I’m sure this will grow the GOP her in Illinois. /s


  16. - Pundent - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:54 am:

    =MAGA will fizzle out.=

    Perhaps. But it’s Supreme Court legacy will live on. And there’s no sign currently that there’s a new GOP waiting in the wings to replace the current one. And we’ll likely be reminded of that this week when the “big” announcement happens.


  17. - Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 9:55 am:

    LP-

    The referendum on Biden was held last week. Maybe you missed it, but he faired better than any sitting president since prohibition.

    I get you’re a troll, but for the love of Mike, extract at least an inch of your noggin from your nether regions.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:00 am:

    === How many people will make the mistake of voting for another 78 year old for President after seeing how that works out.===

    It’s a cult. They don’t look at things rationally.

    You supported Trump. You supported Bailey. You also supported Rauner.

    You aren’t a rational person to say MAGA will fizzle out when 56+% supported Bailey in a 6-way race.

    Before you say “Well Pritzker… “

    No.

    Just no. Stop.

    Unless there’s a Jedi mind trick, Bailey IS and will continue to be the ILGOP… you can’t wish it away… as you supported Rauner daily, and you supported Trump


  19. - Hamlets Ghost - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:01 am:

    Plenty of suburban women disagree with the GOP’s stance on assault weapons. GOP insistence that the 2nd Amendment includes the right of everyone to own AR-15s is something that costs GOP candidates votes in the suburbs. Google “Moms Demand Action”

    IL GOP anti-vax / anti-mask stances aren’t too popular either.

    Taken together with government meddling in reproductive health and it’s a trifecta of issues where the IL GOP is on the wrong side of history.


  20. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:11 am:

    This election proved once and for all that whoever spends the most money usually wins and then mistakes that win for a mandate for their extreme policies.

    You are right about Rauner OW but completely gaslighting on Trump and Bailey.

    I said there was no chance Bailey could win. What paid spokesman would say that?

    As far as the death of the Republican Party, they have 5 million more votes than Democrats so far this election.


  21. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:11 am:

    To the post,

    If you are lucky enough, check out the tweets Golden Horseshoe winner John Amdor had in this as well, Rich does more than an excellent job laying out so many shortfalls

    For me? It’s quite “simple”

    Eileen Lyons, Rosemary Mulligan…

    Now, if you’re confused who they are, or what this all means, think on this…

    The Jim Oberweus types, the hard Right who fought against SSM, wanted Pat Brady ousted, the folks what had brought?

    The “Eileen Lyons, Rosemary Mulligan” types the party built coalitions around.

    They aren’t only out, they aren’t only tired of the R_N_ label… they are Democrats… they are *leaders* in Democratic politics… the GOP in Illinois has no “Eileen Lyons… Rosemary Mulligans”

    It’s “simple”… young women, suburban women, families… they know… they *know*… Republicans are dangerous to women’s health… they voted accordingly.

    In July, it was really obvious that abortion would be a huge issues.

    In July.

    The real “wow”… it’s November, and others thought it would fade, even some outwardly mocked the “marches that won’t matter”… you take away a right… people won’t forget.

    Bailey refused to embrace his pro-life, no exceptions, after June?

    Why?

    “Rosemary Mulligans and Eileen Lyons” types… vote Blue now.

    That’s why.


  22. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:21 am:

    ==The difference is New York has had no cash bail since 2019 and it has made residents less safe.==

    But LP, as you pointed out, NY Dems tried to do a U-Turn on bail reform. I believe you shared this very article…

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/11/new-york-democrats-pare-back-nation-leading-bail-reform-amid-crime-spikes-and-election-fights-00024361

    And yet, as you claim, New York’s crime is much lower than Chicago.

    Once again, you need to wrap up this argument you have with yourself before you engage us.

    But electorally, the results are clear, the voters just plain aren’t rewarding anyone- like you, LP, this is exactly what you want to do- who wants to keep letting rich criminals pay their way out of jail.


  23. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:24 am:

    ==I said there was no chance Bailey could win.==

    And yet you supported him anyway.

    ==As far as the death of the Republican Party, they have 5 million more votes than Democrats so far this election.==

    With a ton of California still to count. But confidently asserting vote totals without actually counting a bunch of California appears to be your fetish.


  24. - Dysfunction Junction - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:24 am:

    ==As far as the death of the Republican Party, they have 5 million more votes than Democrats so far this election. ==

    Cite, please.


  25. - Jibba - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:27 am:

    In Illinois, these thoughts about the downfall of the GOP are certainly true. It sounds like Gould has the right questions but the Illinois GOP might not like the answers, so making changes will be difficult. However, at the national level, the downfall is not as severe and the soul searching seems to be related to candidate quality, given that only a couple hundred thousand votes nationwide separated them from full control of Congress this year.

    Continued fealty to Trump might wane, but if DeSantis or any other prominent GOP pol becomes the new standard bearer then the outrage machine will roll on without new ideas because they do not recognize society’s real problems. The national GOP has not been banished to the wilderness for their support of Trump and the insurrectionists, so look only for a change of messenger, not message.


  26. - Chicagonk - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:29 am:

    The Illinois Democratic party is just lightyears better run than the Illinois GOP and that has nothing to do with politics. Don Tracy should resign.


  27. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:29 am:

    ==Cite, please.==

    It might well end up as true, but as Republicans pointed out in 2010, 2014, and 2016, that’s not the game. For three elections in a row, now, Republicans haven’t been able to win the game.

    If Republicans like LP want to join me in thinking we should change the rules to make the game more majoritarian, I would welcome their help.


  28. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:30 am:

    === completely gaslighting on Trump and Bailey.===

    Nope, sorry, no - LP -

    You said often how you supported Trump’s policies and one should separate the man from policy. You supported Trump. As I recall, I pointed it out to you multiple times, don’t make me do it again,

    You support Bailey. You do.

    On crime, business, Covid to business… you support Bailey.

    Not a single instance in FOUR years… you supported a Pritzker move, choice, decision… or budget

    It’s not about Bailey winking… you supported Bailey every single day as you told us all voting for Pritzker is bad for Illinois.

    Just eat it.

    You and racist thinkers, insurrection apologists, conspiracy theorists… you all wanted Pritzker out. The ILGOP. You embrace that party.

    - LP -, look in the mirror, you *are* the ILGOP.

    === As far as the death of the Republican Party===

    Cults always look for signs of life, divinity not votes, LOL


  29. - PublicServant - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:31 am:

    === “And what are we offering now? What are our programs? What do we stand for other than negativity?” ===

    Good Question, Arlen. Now tell your homies, bro.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:33 am:

    === As far as the death of the Republican Party===

    Since 1988… no Republican nominee for POTUS won the popular vote, less 2004.

    GOP candidates, versus Dem candidates… for POTUS… aren’t winning any popularity contests…

    The electoral college is working as designed.

    Disenfranchise popular voting, allow small states and states not in-line with popular thought… to win


  31. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:33 am:

    Folks like Wasserman kept chiding Dems for a decade that they had “wasted votes” in the cities. Well, now Republicans have “wasted votes” in the country. Goose meet Gander.


  32. - Dysfunction Junction - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:37 am:

    ==It might well end up as true..==

    Which is why I asked. I’m not being snarky, just genuinely curious, as I haven’t seen that figure anywhere.. However, if that number doesn’t include results from the (by far) most populous state in the union, it’s less than fully baked.

    Like you, I’d be all in for a true “one person one vote” system. As would, I assume, President Gore and Madam President Clinton.


  33. - Middle Way - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:37 am:

    Candy Dogood - This below is 100% correct - “They squandered an opportunity and then sought to destroy and discredit Adam Kinzinger as he blazed the trail they could have followed.”


  34. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:41 am:

    ==However, if that number doesn’t include results from the (by far) most populous state in the union, it’s less than fully baked.==

    I would also argue that whatever the final number is, it’s pretty deceptive. Dems left a lot of Republicans unchallenged this year. With 20/20 hindsight, that looks to be a significant mistake.


  35. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:42 am:

    ==With 20/20 hindsight, that looks to be a significant mistake.==

    or maybe not; obviously you’d never really get a challenger with a good chance of winning in any of those districts, and we can ask ILGOP if the “pinning them down at home” strategy bore any fruit.


  36. - Jerry - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:43 am:

    Women preferred the Freedom to make their own decisions about their lives.


  37. - Pundent - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:44 am:

    =As far as the death of the Republican Party, they have 5 million more votes than Democrats so far this election.=

    I’ve been following your posts for the better part of 6 years or so through the Rauner and Trump years. And in each cycle you’ve predicted how the tide was turning against the Democratic party.
    And the results, particularly in this state, show that you have moved further and further from reality. So while your messaging remains consistent, it becomes more and more removed from reality with the passage of time. And to the extent that the ILGOP follows your lead, and hopefully they don’t, it doesn’t bode well for the party.


  38. - Amalia - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:49 am:

    The Conservative party in the UK is fiscally very conservative. But they are not anti reproductive choices and not anti LGBTQ. They also selected as leader a person not a Christian. Lessons.


  39. - 47th Ward - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:49 am:

    ===And that started well before Donald Trump was elected president.===

    Indeed. And one result is that when Trump emerged on the national stage, there weren’t enough sane Republicans to stop him. The purge the ILGOPs warned us about had nothing to do with crime, it was the purge of moderate voices in the Illinois Republican Party. That absence empowered the crazy people in their party to take up empty leadership positions.

    As a Democrat, I’ll say it: we need a healthy and functioning ILGOP. It’s good for our state, and good for democracy. I’m glad we have large majorities, don’t get me wrong, but we still need a check on our excesses from time to time or we will find ourselves back in the minority before long.


  40. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:50 am:

    ==The Conservative party in the UK is fiscally very conservative. But they are not anti reproductive choices and not anti LGBTQ. They also selected as leader a person not a Christian. Lessons.==

    Although they’re probably gonna get bodied in their next election, because of the mistakes of the last couple PMs.


  41. - Near West Side - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:52 am:

    ==“Rosemary Mulligans and Eileen Lyons” types… vote Blue now==

    Yes, yes we do. Some things trump crime and the economy.


  42. - cermak_rd - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:52 am:

    Amalia, yes, I spend a lot of time looking at European news. From what I can tell in western Europe, the conservative parties would be our Dems and the Reps would be their right wing alternative parties, with no American analog to their liberal parties.


  43. - Excitable Boy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 10:58 am:

    - Illinois residents will quickly find that out soon -

    Lol, keep hoping LP, that strategy is doing wonders for your party.

    Don’t mothball those blame Madigan t-shirts either, no sense having them all reprinted for 2024.


  44. - Demoralized - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:02 am:

    ==whoever spends the most money usually wins==

    Couldn’t possibly have been the ideas could it? Do you never learn anything?

    ==As far as the death of the Republican Party, they have 5 million more votes than Democrats so far this election==

    We’re talking about Illinois you dolt. Super-minority status you know. Again, you’ll spin anyway you can. You are and continue to be dishonest.


  45. - G'Kar - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:05 am:

    ==MAGA will fizzle out.==

    My first thought Wednesday morning that Republicans would look to Florida as the “path” to victory. But, I also thought Illinois is not Florida. However, I also continue to monitor my local “Yana” group on FB, which is made up of hardcore Bailey and Devore supporters and guess what? They are arguing the problem with the Republicans in Illinois is that their candidates are not imitating DeSantis and needed to go harder against those who are “woke.” etc. They argued before the election to undervote Republicans like Rezin who are not “pure” enough.

    It is going to be hard to pull the GOP back towards the center.


  46. - Demoralized - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:10 am:

    ==they have 5 million more votes than Democrats so far this election==

    That’s nationally. And that has got to be one of the dumber things you have ever said. How has that translated into into actual wins? Because the Democrats retained control of the Senate and they will barely control the House. So those votes don’t mean squat if you can win elections.


  47. - Highland IL - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:11 am:

    Isn’t Wayne Rosenthal coming back with no opposition also proof that the Illinois GOP is going no where. No new blood wanted to try for an open seat?


  48. - Cosgrove - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:16 am:

    Wow. All this talk about abortion. It seems to be coming as a surprise to some that women would feel offended that some politician wants to take away their right to decide what to do with their body and to fulfill their dreams and aspirations. And yes, abortion is a kitchen table economic issue as women and their families try to grapple with feeding, clothing, housing, educating and providing health care to everyone sitting around their kitchen table.


  49. - Anonymous - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:30 am:

    @Arsenal, yes Conservatives are in trouble because of their reckless actions on policy and process. as opposed to Arsenal the team, which is doing quite well.


  50. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:33 am:

    ==as opposed to Arsenal the team, which is doing quite well==

    I remain quite certain that we’ll blow it. The last few years have left me with a lot of PTSD.


  51. - don the legend - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:34 am:

    The hard core right does not stress over the loss of this or any election.

    Their Pro Dobbs, anti same sex marriage and anti LGBTQ+ positions are not political. They are religious beliefs. People don’t change their religious beliefs just to win a few civil elections.

    For them it’s a matter of their salvation.


  52. - Amalia - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:48 am:

    sorry, the Anonymous just before Arsenal was me, of course. whenever good things happen I recall a childhood warning that crying would soon come. like the Dems nationally all happy and soon the House will go over to a used car salesman.


  53. - Baloneymous - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 11:59 am:

    “Whoever succeeds me, we need to do more to not take these strident positions on issues related to firearms, to issues of reproductive health, issues relating to the gay and lesbian community. There are many people who feel very strong about those issues who would vote for Republicans,” Durkin said.

    In 2024 it will be interesting to see if Illinois republicans pay any attention to Leader Durkin’s outgoing remarks or if they will still be stuck on MAGA.


  54. - Roadrager - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:03 pm:

    ==Biggest surprise for me was crime is much lower in New York than Chicago but the issue swung several house districts to the Republicans.

    The difference is New York has had no cash bail since 2019 and it has made residents less safe.==

    Open contradiction in back-to-back sentences. Strong start to the week.

    The reason(s) Democrats lost in New York had little, if anything, to do with violent crime; if they had, we’d be talking about Mayor Curtis Sliwa welcoming in Governor-elect Lee Zeldin to clean up these streets.

    The NY Democrats lost because their state organization is still in a post-Cuomo hangover, actively trying to purge its left flank while doubling down on weak centrists or center-right candidates to appease a Blue Dog constituency Cuomo propped up to make himself more of a power center. In at least one case, they undercut a popular incumbent in favor of an unpopular centrist with organizational clout, who then got his teeth kicked in by a Republican. Their attempt at redistricting also became a carnival sideshow.

    ==”We had lots of really great candidates” who were “constantly attacked by the Democrats on abortion, made-up issues and alleged extremism,” [ILGOP Chair Don Tracy] said.==

    Who made up those issues, Don? Who kept yelling about “Critical Race Theory” and busting up drag shows and talking about school litter boxes because they were the big scary stories on the TV shows 1.5% of the country watches each night? And who stood quietly by as the Proud Boys came in to make their presence known, or as a county office got a bullet mailed to it with a Confederate flag on the envelope, or as the gubernatorial candidate stumped at First Church of The Punisher? Who did that, Don? Was it Democrats? Was it JB Pritzker’s money casting a hypnotic spell over the state?

    Whatever Republicans do wrong, rest assured, it will never be their fault.


  55. - Luke Steele - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:07 pm:

    Lucky Pierre said “New York has had no cash bail since 2019 and it has made residents less safe.”

    Here is a write up by the Brennan Center that intelligently discusses some of the faulty conclusions drawn by the City Journal write up Pierre shared with us.

    https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/facts-bail-reform-and-crime-rates-new-york-state

    P.S. The federal criminal justice system has not had cash bail since the early 1980s.


  56. - Dotnonymous - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:39 pm:

    Women are beginning to recognize their true power…lately.


  57. - Dotnonymous - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:40 pm:

    “Everybody said this election was about crime and inflation,” said Tim Schneider.”

    C’mon, Man.


  58. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 12:43 pm:

    I am an Evangelical Christian. I am also, as I describe myself, an independent moderate pragmatist. The GOP needs to hear what has happened with me. I am the voter that left you. Here is how many GOP candidates I voted for over the last 3 elections:

    2018 0 (The first time in 50 years of voting I voted a straight ticket)
    2020 1 (I voted against the incompetent Kim Foxx)
    2022 0

    You lost me. I do not support many of the policies of the Dems. But what you have become is disgusting & revolting. You put forth candidates that claim to represent Christian values. Yet these people are really narrow-minded racists that are against everything & hate everyone that doesn’t think like them. The Bible teaches us to love one another, even to the extent of loving & praying for your enemies. There is no love or compassion for anyone except your fellow travelers. The alternate to Baily was the phony Richard Irvin. If you want me back, provide a real alternative to the MAGA types. They are not leaving, but if you try better to appeal to moderates maybe the outcome may be different.


  59. - Just Me 2 - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 2:52 pm:

    Somewhat off topic - one of the problems in finding smart candidates that have the ability to win these races is the amount we pay legislators. With so much work at just a medium-level pay that means the only people willing to run are either the wealthy who run for “fun” or zealots who are going to be extreme.


  60. - Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:07 pm:

    ===either the wealthy who run for “fun” or zealots who are going to be extreme===

    Oh, stop.


  61. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 3:20 pm:

    === one of the problems in finding smart candidates that have the ability to win these races is the amount we pay legislators.===

    Ok. Fine. Good point.

    I’m just spit balling here, how about we give them pensions?

    We give them pensions… pensions.

    Ok, I had my fun.

    The reason the GOP can’t field good candidates is because fundraising, nasty and divisive primaries that don’t allow a healing and a total lack of diversity being acceptable to the base.

    Other than those things…


  62. - Suburban Mom - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 4:10 pm:

    Not only is abortion a “kitchen table” issue, but gosh do I think the GOP attacks directed at “pronouns and drag queens” is incredibly misplaced, and I think Republicans are not getting an accurate read on how these play with suburban women.

    My kids go to school with kids who are struggling with their gender identity. And while we have angry men (always men) show up to yell about it at school board, they never have children in the local district. Even the parents that I know are skeptical of “gender ideology” (as they’d call it) are not willing to attack their kid’s classmates, kids they’ve known for 10 years, kids they can see are struggling to figure themselves out.

    Similarly, most women in the United States have experienced the danger of moving through the world as a woman. I know I first had my a** grabbed on the Metra when I was 16. By a 47-year-old man who lived in my suburb and was an accountant. Men shout at you, say obscene and threatening things to you, based on how you’re dressed, or your age, or just that you’re there. I get so viscerally angry when Republicans attack drag queens. They are just existing in the world in women’s clothing, they are not hurting you, false eyelashes and a dress are doing literally nothing to you, but they’re not allowed to move through the world without the same kinds of threats and abuse that I — and most women — have been intimately familiar with since I was 13 years old.

    It makes me AFRAID of the people who are attacking drag queens. If I have fears about crime, they are absolutely related to loud, angry, ultra-conservative men whose rage so easily turns to violence (and who have often have assault rifles).

    It’s awfully hard for the “hard on crime” message of the GOP to land, when all of the crime that I personally have suffered in my life has been AT THE HANDS OF MEN WHO LOOK AND TALK EXACTLY LIKE CONSERVATIVE MEN. And when they shout about drag queens, they sound just like the men who assaulted me when I was younger. And that’s not unique — a lot of suburban women’s primary experience of crime is sexual assault by employed, middle-class, often white men, or mass shootings carried out by the younger, disaffected men spouting right-wing rhetoric.


  63. - btowntruth from forgottonia - Monday, Nov 14, 22 @ 8:51 pm:

    “moving from a message of social moderation and fiscal conservatism to a rigid-right ideology that is aging along with its dwindling base.”

    That.
    Right.
    There.


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