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Poll: Large majorities of Illinoisans support assault weapons ban, increasing FOID card age to 21

Thursday, Dec 8, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Excerpted polling memo from pollster Global Strategy Group on behalf of gun law reform organization Everytown

A majority [of Illinois registered voters polled] support the passage of an assault weapons ban (58%), with nearly half (46%) strongly supporting the ban. Establishing an anti-gun trafficking unit (80%), increasing resources for red-flag laws (74%), and increasing the minimum age to obtain a FOID card to 21 (66%) all enjoy widespread support in the state.

* More

A majority of voters (58%) support an assault weapons ban, most of which with high intensity - nearly half (46%) of voters stating they strongly support a ban in the state. Support spans across communities with 60% of Hispanic voters, 64% of Black voters, and 56% of white voters supporting an assault weapons ban in Illinois. Even a majority (58%) of independents support it. The ban has strong support among voters in the Chicago media market, but still enjoys net-positive support in the southern part of the state (55%) and near- even support (47%) among those in the far northwest and central regions.

55 percent in southern Illinois. That’s wild.

Breakdown

* More

There is broad support for measures to prevent gun violence in Illinois. Illinois voters strongly support policies aimed at restricting who may access weapons – two-thirds of voters (66%) support increasing the minimum age to obtain a FOID card from 18 to 21 years old, with the majority (55%) strongly supporting the policy. This includes 59% of independents. Measures to increase resources for red-flag law implementation enjoy even higher levels of support with three-quarters (74%) of voters backing the policy.

The vast majority (80%) of voters also support establishing an anti-gun-trafficking unit to stem the flow of illegal guns, with broad support across racial lines with 78% of white voters, 86% of Black voters, and 86% Hispanic voters supporting the measure.

Graph

* More

A majority of voters (52%) believe gun laws in the state of Illinois should be stronger, including nearly three-quarters (72%) of Black voters and 56% of Hispanic voters. Conversely, there are few who think gun laws should be weaker – indicating that legislative action on gun violence prevention thus far has been well-received. Fewer than one-in-five (18%) believe gun laws should be weaker in the state. Support for stronger gun laws statewide is buoyed by especially high support in Chicagoland - 64% of Chicago residents and 61% of voters in the rest of Cook County want stronger gun laws.

* Methodology

Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 1,010 registered voters in Illinois between October 20th and October 27th, 2022, including an oversample of 210 additional Black and Hispanic voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.6% for this survey. Interviews were conducted over the phone and with text to web invitation. Care has been taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the populations of likely voters are properly represented.

       

43 Comments
  1. - Todd & Margo - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 1:31 pm:

    The new House Minority Leader should take note. She’s doing a great job of keeping her caucus irrelevant on the first major issue before her.


  2. - We've never had one before - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 1:34 pm:

    Well, the majority does not rule on civil rights.

    Fun facts: the ban being discussed in HB5855 is not a gun ban at all, but an insult that would result in government-caused devaluation of private property.

    If you pay a fine, you get to keep it.

    The ban on magazines in the bill, however, turns the law-abiding into felons by a lack of action.

    The court cases will be interesting.


  3. - H-W - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 1:35 pm:

    Very interesting results in this survey. I would have liked to see data on magazine capacity limits, because I think that is where there may be more common ground.


  4. - JoanP - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 1:55 pm:

    The organization Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America had a slew of their volunteers running for office in the midterms. 140 won, including 16 in Illinois. https://www.washingtonpost.com/parenting/2022/12/08/shannon-watts-moms-demand-action/

    This issue matters.


  5. - Constitutional Watcher - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 1:55 pm:

    ===The new House Minority Leader should take note. She’s doing a great job of keeping her caucus irrelevant on the first major issue before her. ===

    So, what you are saying is that Rep. McCombie should vote against the interests of her district? Almost all the gun manufactures in Illinois are from that region. HB5855 bans the manufacturing of semi-automatic firearms and large capacity magazines. Which means these companies are shut down or will move.


  6. - Amalia - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 1:58 pm:

    oh, so a relatively long existing group working on the issue did a poll. yep, public sentiment is in favor of banning assault weapons. A Cook County referendum in 2006 got a vote in favor of that at over 80 %.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 1:59 pm:

    ===So, what you are saying is===

    … your take is that it’s good politics to choose… the manufacturer… over people?

    That’ll be a fun sell.

    “Look, the manufacturer of these weapons are in my district, I’m against banning them”

    Hope there’s a sound bite.


  8. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:00 pm:

    ===So, what you are saying is that Rep. McCombie should vote against the interests of her district?===

    Don’t think that was said.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:03 pm:

    ===Don’t think that was said.===

    Exactly.

    - Constitutional Watcher -, you are framing it in the worst possible reason one, any one, would use in this instance, AND to publicly say as such.

    That’s not the deal.


  10. - Constitutional Watcher - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:08 pm:

    @ Rich
    A commenter indicated that McCombie was keeping her caucus irrelevant because of this issue. Which means this commenter believes she should work against the interests of her district. She would lose an election in her district on this issue alone.

    @Oswego Willy
    Frame it any way you want, McCombie helping with this issue is a career killer in her district.


  11. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:15 pm:

    - Constitutional Watcher -

    “When it mattered most, Tony McCombie chose a gun manufacturer over your children”

    The ads write themselves.

    If there was a quote explaining it as a choice, how bad of an ad would that be?


  12. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:18 pm:

    “Frame it any way you want, McCombie helping with this issue is a career killer in her district.”

    The issue is the caucus not McCombie’s district. How are you going to grow the caucus via the suburbs, that happened to be very Republican somewhat recently, when you can’t win the center on issues? Believe it or not, in Illinois, supporting an assault weapons ban is a centrist position in Illinois. Just look at the poll.


  13. - Constitutional Watcher - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:20 pm:

    @Oswego Willy
    If and when Rep. McCombie runs statewide, we can continue this discussion. Until then, in her fairly rural district, “When it mattered most, Tony McCombie protected our jobs and way of life against the Chicago gun grabbers.”


  14. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:21 pm:

    ===The issue is the caucus not McCombie’s district===

    As leader now, doesn’t her switch also give members freedom? McCombie lets members vote “on their own”, will McCombie protect those Green on a ban… or will McCombie let those voting Green face primary challenges without support?

    “Welcome to Leadership, Leader McCombie”

    It’s that kind of vote,


  15. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:23 pm:

    ==McCombie helping with this issue is a career killer in her district.==

    Maybe she was a bad choice for Republican Leader, then.


  16. - Blue Dog - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:24 pm:

    Raising the FOID card to 21 is not going to solve the overwhelming gun violence. Raise the minimum age to 21 on certain guns if you think that’s going to do something. But leave shotguns and muzzle loaders out of this. Hunting teaches the proper use of firearms.


  17. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:29 pm:

    “Raising the FOID card to 21 is not going to solve the overwhelming gun violence.”

    There is no panacea. Raising the age for a FOID card helps, at least.


  18. - Constitutional Watcher - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:30 pm:

    ===“Welcome to Leadership, Leader McCombie”===

    Leadership certainly has a price. To be helpful with “green” voted would be horrific in her district. Future leader Curran has a similar if not worse predicament. His caucus is more conservative on the issue, and he would be a member that people would have thought would be more inclined to vote for the legislation.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:34 pm:

    ===would be horrific in her district.===

    I’d like to see polling, plus that’s before any ads specific to voting for the manufacturing versus kids.

    ===His===

    Her

    ===he would be a member that people would have thought would be more inclined to vote for the legislation.===

    She… isn’t just a member anymore. She’s the Leader.

    McCombie will also need to hold off groups looking to punish members for being Green or McCombie’s leadership might be short lived.


  20. - Jibba - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:42 pm:

    I suspect majority or near-majority support in rural regions might come from the fact that most know you don’t hunt with an AR-15.


  21. - FormerILSIP - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:44 pm:

    With respect, “Care has been taken” + acknowledged oversampling + 55% in southern Illinois who supported this compared to nowhere near that in election results (Bailey/Pritzker) all wrapped up in a poll that is 1.5 months old. How can anyone not be rather skeptical of the results of this poll compared to the reality of vote results? Seriously, who is supporting Bailey and banning firearms in the same breath? Let’s see at least a second poll supporting this (maybe from a quasi-independent pollster instead of Giffords/et al., even one from last month, perhaps) before declaring that Republicans must reflexively support this measure.


  22. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:46 pm:

    ===compared to the reality of vote results?===

    People in Missouri regularly vote for liberal issues as well as for far-right Republicans. It’s not a new thing. Americans loved Ronald Reagan, but polling showed they disagreed with him on a whole lot of individual issues.

    But, yeah, this is one poll. Don’t disagree there.


  23. - Flapdoodle - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:48 pm:

    ==HB5855 bans the manufacturing of semi-automatic firearms==

    Don’t think this is true. There is a ban on certain type and caliber semi-automatics, and on so-called large capacity mags, but not all.

    Facts matter in this debate. The hyperbole will reach new levels, so we need start from facts.

    If I’m wrong about the language in HB5855, somebody please correct me and also please include a citation.


  24. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:51 pm:

    ==Hunting teaches the proper use of firearms.==

    You don’t need a FOID card to teach this.


  25. - west wing - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:52 pm:

    Lots of people in every region of Illinois have been involved with Moms Demand Action, which seems like the most effective group out there. They recruited more than 100 candidates for local and legislative office (16 in Illinois). Moms has done a good job of attracting Republicans and Democrats around the state who have had enough. McCombie might be surprised by the sentiment in her district, as well as others.


  26. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 2:57 pm:

    Ok, now to this… directly to the Senate…

    ===Future leader Curran has a similar if not worse predicament. His caucus is more conservative on the issue, and he would be a member that people would have thought would be more inclined to vote for the legislation.===

    If as a caucus they wanna be all Red, how exactly will that play in districts … and recruitment of moderate GOP candidates?

    Or is the 2A one of those cult things, like abortion, like SSM… all polling against the majority


  27. - Blue Dog - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 3:00 pm:

    arsenal. you are correct. I have lobbied the ISP for statistics numerous times. my question is always this. what percentage of gun felonies are committed by FOId holders.


  28. - vern - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 3:06 pm:

    McCombie aside, there are definitely Republicans whose districts support an assault weapons ban. There are also Dem-held districts that might have gone the other way if a Republican candidate had gotten loud about supporting it. Something for Deanne Mazzochi to think about after she’s done hunting unicorns.


  29. - Push? - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 3:11 pm:

    Why oversample black and Hispanic voters by almost 20%? Those in those demographics generally do not break GOP. Is there a polling reason or is it to nudge results one way or the other?


  30. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 3:20 pm:

    ===Why oversample black and Hispanic voters by almost 20%?===

    The oversample is used to make sure the crosstabs are right, and aren’t included in the statewide sample.

    Take a breath.


  31. - Constitutional Watcher - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 3:26 pm:

    @Rich, sorry. Posted before your explanation.


  32. - Shytown - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 3:37 pm:

    I believe that under this bill foid is still available to under 21 for supervised hunting plus military.


  33. - JS Mill - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 3:38 pm:

    =McCombie helping with this issue is a career killer in her district.=

    I disagree. Bigly.

    And companies that are strong can adapt to changing markets. And ALL semi auto guns are not banned.

    =Hunting teaches the proper use of firearms.=

    And this bill has zero impact on hunting , and even less impact on hunter safety. My son took his hunter safety course as soon as he could read well enough. I didn’t turn him loose with a gun until he was older and he hunted with me or a trusted adult (exclusively) until he was 18. Pretty much still does. Under 21 can still hunt, they just cannot own guns until 21.

    Your gaslighting here is easily debunked.


  34. - Ray - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 3:39 pm:

    This is not a survey conducted by an independent group. Global Strategy Group is a DNC affiliated PR firm conducting this study on behalf of a gun ban advocacy group. This is not reliable data.


  35. - Mason born - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 3:53 pm:

    JS Mill

    To say this has zero impact on hunting is incorrect. It may have zero impact on the way you hunted and your child but it has impact for others. It is common in my area for high-school juniors and Seniors to hunt without their parents this precludes that. I’m also not sure how your supposed to supervise multiple youths in different stands across 40 acres. I’d also say this makes a big change for 18-20 yr olds who cannot POSSSES a gun to hunt and may not live close enough to their parents to just drive home and get mom or dad. It also has a potentially larger impact on high school trap teams. You may argue these changes are minor for what you believe this bill will do but those are not ZERO.


  36. - vern - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 3:56 pm:

    ===This is not reliable data.===

    This is a common objection, but it’s a very silly one. Democratic polling firms try hard to get accurate data, because that data is used for messaging decisions. Accurate polling is a vital foundation for any successful campaign. Polling is one way to find out what constituents believe, kind of a core political activity in a democracy. Faking a poll would do way more harm than good.


  37. - Anon123 - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 4:04 pm:

    @JS Mill

    It actually does have an impact on hunting, as the DNR will begin authorizing the use of rifles to hunt in Illinois beginning in 2023. Among the approved calibers are multiple calibers offered in the AR15 platform. And for several years, certain AR15 pistols have been legal for hunting in Illinois. This law would certainly take away the option for some of the low-recoil options available for hunting which allow kids to learn and enjoy the sport of hunting.


  38. - Huckleberry1926 - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 7:24 pm:

    …..under 21. Hmmmmmm. I guess my trained 17-20 year old won’t be going to any University in Chicago. I won’t go to Chicago without a concealed weapon, why would I send a child there that is not allowed to defend themselves?
    Magazines. Funny argument. 80% of gunfights according to NMRT and the FBI occur under 30 feet. Shooting accuracy geartly declines with adrenaline (thinking making that 6′putt on 18 to beat your buddies) and usually a home invasion is more than one guy. Me against 2 or 3 bad guys….10 shots isn’t enough under enormous stress. I’ll take those extra 3-6 cartridges


  39. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 7:32 pm:

    ===Hmmmmmm. I guess my trained 17-20 year old won’t be going to any University in Chicago. I won’t go to Chicago without a concealed weapon, why would I send a child there that is not allowed to defend themselves?===

    There are dozens of kids willing to take their place.

    The only one losing out is your child.


  40. - Blue Dog - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 9:07 pm:

    No JS you are wrong. No FOID. No hunting by yourself.


  41. - OverByDere - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 10:41 pm:

    I have been visiting or living in the city of Chicago since I was 16, now 47. Never needed a gun, even working in Englewood.


  42. - Amalia - Thursday, Dec 8, 22 @ 10:58 pm:

    what power does the IDNR have to tweak hunting regulations? If they don’t allow certain weapons to be used for hunts, then there goes that argument. once upon time it seemed that AR type weapons would only be legal for use on coyotes. If the agency has the power to change regulations, Governor, get them to do so. Hunting does not depend on such power.


  43. - Mason born - Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 8:06 am:

    Amalia

    I mean no offense so please don’t take it as such, however you’ve bought into a misconception. The .223 round typically chambered in an ar15 is not powerful enough to take a deer. A 40 lb coyote/coydog yes but not a 150lb whitetail. The publicity has mistakenly led people to believe the round from a regular Ar15 is somehow equivalent to a tank round. To use a rifle on deer in IL the cartridge must be .30 caliber or larger, straight walled, and have a muzzle energy of 500ft-lbs. The only one of those criteria tge .223 meets is the later. However you can rebarrel an AR15 into several other calibers that meet those criteria. Personally I will be rebarreling one into 350 legend which roughly copies tge ballistics of a 30-30 which is not legal to use. As long as the AR is used as a single shot, AKA no magazine it is legal to use if the cartridge is legal.

    The reason someone might use an AR platform over say a single shot conventional rifle, are reduced recoil due to the buffer system, cheaper to utilize (a new barrel is cheaper than a new gun), ability to use the same firearm for multiple game.

    With respect have a lovely day.


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