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That toddlin’ town roundup

Friday, Mar 17, 2023 - Posted by Rich Miller

* IZQ Strategies was one of the few pollsters which predicted a Vallas/Johnson runoff…


* From the toplines, Johnson’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 51-40, while Vallas’ is 47-47. Gov. Pritzker’s is 64-35, Chuy Garcia’s is 34-55 (see below), Bernie Sanders’ is 56-36.

Among institutions, the Chicago Teachers Union’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 48-46, while the Chicago Fraternal Order of Police’s rating is 38-50 and the Chicago Police Department’s is 57-40.

* On to the crosstabs

[7] In the April 4th runoff election for mayor of Chicago, which candidate will you vote for?

Likely Latino voters are by far the smallest subset, so you have to be careful about assuming too much. But still. Whew.

* With that in mind, while Chuy Garcia is endorsing Johnson, he did himself no favors in the first round, particularly with Latinos

-30 among Latinos? Whew.

* Check out the governor’s numbers with Vallas voters

They don’t like him much.

* And this is why it’s so politically dangerous to call for defunding the police

* With that last set of crosstabs in mind

With leaders from various community organizations asking the questions, Johnson and Vallas first weighed in on the issue of public safety.

“What we’re going to do is train and promote 200 more detectives because we’re not solving crime in the city of Chicago, especially in Black and brown, poor communities,” Johnson said.

“New York has 6,000 detectives. That’s not smart policing. Smart policing is filling the vacancies and pushing the police officers down to the local beats, so they can respond within minutes of a 911 call,” said Vallas.

Johnson said Chicago would become safer with more investments in affordable housing, paid for in part by raising the real estate transfer tax on million dollar homes.

* Sun-Times

Johnson is not saying it anymore. But, he still won’t commit to fully funding the Chicago Police Department’s $1.94 billion budget. In fact, he’s vowed to cut the CPD budget by at least $150 million, in part, by reducing the number of supervisors.

“My opponent wants to defund the police. He doesn’t want to fill the 1,100 vacancies. He does not want to bring back retired officers or invite other officers who have left to return without any loss of seniority,” Vallas said. […]

Vallas also took aim at the cornerstone of Johnson’s anti-violence strategy: $800 million in tax increases to help bankroll $1 billion worth of “investments in people.”

“You’re not gonna promote businesses by re-imposing the head tax, which taxes small businesses. That is not a tax-the-rich tax. You’re not gonna help businesses in general by increasing the hotel-motel tax by 66% which, of course, is part of my opponent’s $800 million tax plan. Hotels and motels are already paying the highest taxes in the country and they have barely survived, if they’ve come close to recovering from COVID,” Vallas said.

Johnson said $1 billion in social service investments is “what it takes for a better, stronger city.” He argued that his tax plan is based on a “fundamental Democratic principle.”

* Tribune

“What has failed us is the politics of old,” Johnson said. “My opponent talks about school closures. Well, he set up the market for schools to be closed. He got so good at it, he went around the country doing it.”

Johnson then argued there is a link between violence and neighborhoods that faced school closures or privatization. To that, Vallas said his opponent is the one who should be to blame for any classroom shutdowns.

“The only one up here who has closed schools is my opponent,” Vallas said, before touting new schools built and rising CPS enrollment when he led the school district. “… Have you ever been to New Orleans? Have you ever seen New Orleans after Katrina? Eighty percent of the schools were destroyed.” […]

Johnson retorted that there was a “100-year pandemic” and said: “I have been to New Orleans. And I’m going to take a vacation there once I become mayor of the city of Chicago. … People from New Orleans actually came here to Chicago today, Paul, to talk about your failures,” a reference to a news conference Johnson held earlier Thursday with parents from school districts Vallas previously led.

* Another trade union weighs in for Vallas…

The Chicago Laborers’ District Council is endorsing Paul Vallas for Mayor and declaring that he is the candidate best equipped to create more jobs and economic opportunities for Chicagoans. Representing a diverse group of over 20,000 men and women across 15 Affiliated Local Unions in the construction, municipal, and industrial sectors, the Chicago Laborers’ District Council joins other major unions like Plumbers Local 130, Operating Engineers Local 150, IBEW Local 134 and IBEW Local 9.

“Paul prioritizes infrastructure and shares our view that the city must encourage development and invest in projects that will create jobs and opportunities to build a bigger, better and safer future for all Chicagoans,” said Chicago Laborers’ District Council Business Manager James P. Connolly. “On behalf of our membership, we are proud to support Paul Vallas because he will be a Mayor for all Chicagoans who will fight for the middle class.”

* Isabel’s roundup…

       

60 Comments
  1. - Arsenal - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:25 am:

    Man, with Vallas’ financing, to be only break even on favorables and (basically) on “what have you heard about him” is startling. Though not as much as Chuy’s numbers. Maybe he’s actually going to HURT BJ, sheesh.


  2. - Montrose - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:25 am:

    I hate to say it, but I felt Vallas was stronger and more confident in last night’s debate. I don’t know how much it matters in the scheme of things, but Johnson didn’t have the ease and comfort I saw in the multicandidate forums before the first round of voting.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:29 am:

    The poll is the poll, it’s a snapshot in time, those cross tabs are wow, even Chuy…

    Has Vallas peaked too early to early voting, if this poll is any indicator to where things sit?

    The “over 50” vote is something I’m going to really look at in the voting pool and cast ballot universe once those numbers become available.

    This lil window tells me how critical GOTV will be with two extreme type candidates, and how the bases can branch into folks not enamored with either.


  4. - Homebody - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:32 am:

    Vallas voters tend to dislike the otherwise popular left-leaning governor, Vallas is supported by a ton of groups that range from right-leaning to RWNJ, including people like Charlie Kirk. But Vallas insists he is a Democrat.

    Seems like Paul should explain to his supporters how they totally have it all wrong.


  5. - Arsenal - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:33 am:

    ==This lil window tells me how critical GOTV will be with two extreme type candidates, and how the bases can branch into folks not enamored with either.==

    If the race all comes down to GOTV (which seems a little more likely than it did two weeks ago) then I still think I’d rather be Johnson, but Vallas has somewhat closed that gap.


  6. - Hot Taeks - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:33 am:

    I acknowledge IZQ did fairly well with first poll. However, I have some hesitations with this poll. The pollster appears to he a major supporter of Mr. Johnson so it likely has a internal bias house effect. Then as far as methodology, it was done in 2 days (released on 2nd day!!) Via text-to-web. Quinnipiac states their polls take around 4-7 days and they usually contact people around 5-9PM. Even if this poll is done via texting, you’d expect less responses if it was conducted on only one day with that coveted polling evening window.

    I really hope a major media org comes out with a poll soon.


  7. - Graybeard - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:44 am:

    These results point to a very tight finish (obviously). Undecideds seem more favorable to Johnson. That said, voters with a voting plan (In-person early, Mail or Election Day) favor Vallas by five points.

    Not sure what Johnson’s ground game is like in majority-Black wards, but that’s where this race will be won/lost.


  8. - Benjamin - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:52 am:

    Geez, what’s up with Chuy’s numbers?


  9. - Keyrock - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:57 am:

    “ Geez, what’s up with Chuy’s numbers?”
    - Blame Madigan.


  10. - Anon324 - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:57 am:

    Before this poll, I would have said Chuy was the last of the big “gets” to be had for endorsements. But those unfavorable numbers….yeesh. Not sure his endorsement adds much for Johnson all things considered.

    The 45th run-off is going to be interesting. At first glance, he should be able to get over the line: his base isn’t likely to go anywhere (I’d guess the Venn diagram of Vallas and Gardiner supporters in that ward is close to a circle), and he doesn’t need a lot to get over the hump. So how much of the non-Gardiner vote was motivated anti-incumbent sentiment who will stick with “anyone but Gardiner,” and will still show up for a run-off?


  11. - bored now - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 10:59 am:

    gotv baby! that’s a lot closer than i assumed…


  12. - Corruption Committee - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:00 am:

    The ground game is more than just GOTV. With 10% undecided, the campaign that reaches more voters with volunteers between now and 4/4 wins this race. Hope the election for Mayor is decisive and does not come down to recount.


  13. - Amalia - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:02 am:

    the Chuy numbers could be what they always are with Hispanic voters….Mexican vs. Puerto Rican. Johnson has to get Chuy with his Puerto Rican endorsers and show that bond. That said, the Hispanic vote is traditionally small and not as likely to come out. the better result from the wider Hispanic endorsement show is the notice of progressives. That + turn out Black vote in favor of Johnson could do it.


  14. - Steve - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:02 am:

    Brandon Johnson has established himself. Even if he doesn’t win in April: he could be mayor in the next 20 years. A significant percentage of Chicago voters wants higher taxes to pay for a bigger government. They will get their wish. Although, I didn’t think the CME will be part of the increased funding .


  15. - Mark - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:04 am:

    Vallas keeps talking about bringing back retired police officers as if that is both an easy (and scalable) to fill vacancies. I have not seen this claim interrogated much, if at all, but it strikes me as a ridiculous strategy. We keep hearing about low morale among police officers, but we’re going to get a wave of un-retirements simply because a law-and-order type is now running the show?


  16. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:08 am:

    === A significant percentage of Chicago voters wants higher taxes to pay for a bigger government. They will get their wish.===

    You are tiring with these silly assessments for “20 years” and you don’t vote.

    Either show the percentages…


  17. - wait what - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:15 am:

    Chuy at -30 with Latinos? Come on… has any poll EVER showed him even close to that far underwater with Latino voters? Hard to believe anything after reading that.


  18. - Steve - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:18 am:

    - you don’t vote.-

    Although I was born in Chicago, I don’t live there any longer. So, it would be illegal for me to vote in Chicago.


  19. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:21 am:

    I am not sure about text to web responses. A lot of likely voters might just ignore the texts. This might be more representative of subset of voters who are very motivated about this race. There are going to be a lot of apathetic voters out there.


  20. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:22 am:

    === it would be illegal===

    Anywho,

    I dunno if out of hand dismissing it, I think it’d be wise to poll Chuy on his own sometime, citywide.


  21. - low level - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:25 am:

    ==A significant percentage of Chicago voters wants higher taxes to pay for a bigger government.==

    You aint from around here I dont think….


  22. - low level - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:31 am:

    At any rate, I think there are a good amount of “Shy Vallas” voters who dont wish to reveal who they are for out of fear of being labeled a racist or a Republican or whatever.


  23. - Steve - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:31 am:

    -You aint from around here I dont think….-

    CPS has a budget of $9.4 billion with just 322,106 students. That’s over $29,000 per pupil. Only a progressive group of voters would support that with such substandard results. But, heh : it is what it is. Brandon , himself , has explains the methods.
    tinyurl.com/5n7sj499


  24. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:34 am:

    ===Only a progressive group of voters would support that with such substandard results.===

    What are you babbling about and spamming here?

    You are spamming a tweeter.

    Like I said, tiring.


  25. - supplied_demand - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:55 am:

    =Steve=
    Has Vallas explained how he is going to pay for hiring 2,000 more officers? How much will it cost to keep the schools open all year? Not a huge fan of Johnson, but at least he acknowledges that you need to pay for things. Those two policies alone are well over $750 million of new spending.


  26. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:56 am:

    === At any rate, I think there are a good amount of “Shy Vallas” voters who dont wish to reveal…===

    At any rate, that doesn’t explain away the 46% for Johnson…


  27. - Arsenal - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:57 am:

    ==Not sure his endorsement adds much for Johnson all things considered.==

    My joke aside, most endorsements mean next to nothing, but Chuy’s could be an exception if it means his organization is activated on Johnson’s behalf. That would matter far more than Chuy’s favorables.

    ==A lot of likely voters might just ignore the texts.==

    A lot of voters don’t answer the phone for pollsters, either.

    It’s a spring municipal election. Every voter is going to be pretty highly motivated.

    ==At any rate, I think there are a good amount of “Shy Vallas” voters who dont wish to reveal who they are for out of fear of being labeled a racist or a Republican or whatever.==

    That suggests its own problem, though, that the “Vallas = Republican” stuff is breaking through.

    And frankly, I doubt there’s that many voters who have personal loyalty to Vallas that overrides their revulsion at the Republican Party.


  28. - Anon324 - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:59 am:

    ==CPS has a budget of $9.4 billion with just 322,106 students. That’s over $29,000 per pupil. Only a progressive group of voters would support that with such substandard results.==

    And only a disingenuous anti-public education sycophant (aka, someone who thinks IPI and pointy wires are legitimate sources of no-spin data) would use operating expenses instead of instructional expenses in referencing student results since the operating expenses include things that have little to no bearing on as student outcomes. Even at that, the ISBE data shows CPS as #66 from an OEPP standpoint. Of course, IPI and pointy wires don’t use that data because it’s easily refuted, so they made up their own calculation to obfuscate the issue, which is really the only thing they’re good at. Well, that and helping Rauner run the state government into the ground. So two things.


  29. - regular democrat - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 12:01 pm:

    Chuy being -30 with Latino voters doesn’t seem right. I have to agree with Hot tacks on this one. Texting poll rushed out in one day?


  30. - low level - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 12:18 pm:

    == Only a progressive group of voters would support that with such substandard results==.

    Or they simply view it as a cost of living in a very beautiful city.


  31. - 48th Ward Heel - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 12:27 pm:

    I’ve never met a shy Vallas voter (though I suppose by definition I wouldn’t have), and at any rate the last couple of polling cycles have put paid to the “Silent Majority” line


  32. - Chris - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 12:36 pm:

    I would be very cautious extrapolating cross tabs of less than 100 people. That can lead to some very noisy results re:Chuy’s favorables


  33. - low level - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 12:40 pm:

    == And frankly, I doubt there’s that many voters who have personal loyalty to Vallas that overrides their revulsion at the Republican Party.==

    Its not so much “personal loyalty” to Vallas as concern about crime and more revulsion towards his opponent. Or as a longtime friend put it “a choice between awful and godawful”


  34. - lake county democrat - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 12:44 pm:

    I’m *against* defunding the police, but I admire Johnson not doing a 180 degree reversal. The cold, hard facts are that Chicago has budget problems and if you believe more social services can more effectively cut crime than more police, the money has to come from somewhere. (Also, Vallas’ real anti-crime plan is “taking the handcuffs off” and making the same kind of trade-offs other cities have seen when the so-called “handcuffs” were put on.)


  35. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 12:45 pm:

    ===Its not so much “personal loyalty” to Vallas as concern about crime and more revulsion towards his opponent.===

    In this poll, Vallas’ opponent has 46%

    Just sayin’


  36. - low level - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 12:47 pm:

    == In this poll, Vallas’ opponent has 46%==

    Absolutely correct. Its going to be a tight race.


  37. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 12:49 pm:

    === Absolutely correct.===

    If that’s correct, how exactly are there “shy Vallas” voters in it?

    The math doesn’t work in this snapshot


  38. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 1:01 pm:

    ===It’s a spring municipal election. Every voter is going to be pretty highly motivated.===

    Yeah, I don’t think this is true. The Tribune’s coverage has highlighted voters that feel like they’re stuck between two extreme candidates. That’s how I feel personally, and I am a Chicago voter.


  39. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 1:06 pm:

    ===Yeah, I don’t think this is true.===

    I think you misunderstood what the commenter wrote. Actual voters will be motivated. Those who aren’t (including those who are torn) may not even show up.


  40. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 1:13 pm:

    === Actual voters will be motivated. Those who aren’t (including those who are torn) may not even show up.===

    I kind of got that but was not really sure. On the other hand, voting is a habit. A lot of people do it even if they aren’t motivated.


  41. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 1:17 pm:

    I agree that voting is a habit to many people. But it’s more of a habit in presidential years.


  42. - Arsenal - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 1:33 pm:

    == at any rate the last couple of polling cycles have put paid to the “Silent Majority” line==

    Have they? I mean, sure, for “silent majority”. But I would argue not for “shy X voters”. Trump outperformed his polls both times he ran. Just not by enough the second time.

    That being said, I would argue that Trump is easy to distinguish from Vallas. I mean, for a lot of reasons, right? But with Trump, it was a lot of lifelong Republicans who were personally grossed out by him, but ultimately…well, acted like lifelong Republicans. With Vallas, we’re saying there’s a bunch of lifelong Democrats who kinda think that Vallas isn’t a Democrat, but will vote for him anyway out of personal loyalty. Seems like a bigger lift to me.

    OTOH, Trump also benefitted from being in a lot UNlikely voters. And if Vallas is doing the same thing…well, a poll probably wouldn’t catch it.


  43. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 1:35 pm:

    ===a poll probably wouldn’t catch it. ===

    Agreed.


  44. - Arsenal - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 1:38 pm:

    ==more revulsion towards his opponent==

    I find that hard to believe, too. Johnson was “only” a county commissioner until a few weeks ago, and while I definitely think the “defund the police” attack is tuning him up, I just don’t think he’s been in the spotlight long enough for people to really be “repulsed” by him.


  45. - Arsenal - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 1:44 pm:

    To put the above another way…if you’re not going to vote for Johnson because of “defund the police” why wouldn’t you say so? “Defund the police” has been thoroughly discredited, going all the way up to Biden giving Democrats cover to trash it. And this poll shows that Chicago voters still like the cops just fine. If your bottom line is thin and blue, I don’t think you’re worried about too much social stigma for saying so.


  46. - DuPage - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 1:45 pm:

    - Steve - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 11:18 am:

    - you don’t vote.-

    ===Although I was born in Chicago, I don’t live there any longer. So, it would be illegal for me to vote in Chicago.===

    Same.


  47. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 1:46 pm:

    ===Same===

    You don’t vote. At all?

    You think that’s something of pride like - Steve -


  48. - Forever906 - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 2:00 pm:

    Anyone trying to say that Chuy’s endorsement doesn’t matter in this race is speaking nonsense. It isn’t determinative, but CTU has created a lot of bad blood in the progressive movement in recent years, and Chuy can go a long way to signaling it’s okay to support Johnson.

    That said, I find the fact that seven black south and west side Aldermen have endorsed Vallas, compared to two such endorsements for Johnson, is a very under-examined move.

    I see two possibilities. One, which matters little, is that the CTU has ran candidates against these Aldermen and they are supporting Vallas because of that. Two, it may mean there is a lot more support for Vallas on the south side than would be demonstrated by this poll. It is frankly surprising to me that a lot of these aldermen would support Vallas if they thought that was in defiance of the majority of their voters.


  49. - low level - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 2:06 pm:

    ==Two, it may mean there is a lot more support for Vallas on the south side than would be demonstrated by this poll. It is frankly surprising to me that a lot of these aldermen would support Vallas if they thought that was in defiance of the majority of their voters.==

    Exactly


  50. - Arsenal - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 2:12 pm:

    == Two, it may mean there is a lot more support for Vallas on the south side than would be demonstrated by this poll.==

    Depends on how many of these Alders are in runoffs. Anyone who isn’t, it’s essentially a free vote. Nobody’s going to care in four years.

    Another good question is how many of these alders have any actual operations that can turn out votes for Vallas. I wouldn’t know down here in Springfield, but if they don’t, or if they do but don’t actually activate them, it’s not going to help Vallas much.


  51. - Chris - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 2:19 pm:

    Regarding the trade union endorsements (and recognizing that the $$ that come with it are very important):

    Is there any data on how many of the members of those unions live in the city?

    CTU, FOP, etc, we know are basically 99%+, but I’ve wondered about the GOTV power of the trades.

    Note: I am in no way suggesting anything about the endorsements, whether the number of the members who vote in Chicago is zero or 100%—city politics affect union jobs.


  52. - Forever906 - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 2:44 pm:

    ==Depends on how many of these Alders are in runoffs. Anyone who isn’t, it’s essentially a free vote. Nobody’s going to care in four years.==

    All of these aldermen I am referring to either ran unopposed or won their re-election by well over 60% in their wards. They are quite popular.

    I agree it won’t matter to voters in four years, but if Vallas was overwhelmingly unpopular in their wards, then why defy the future mayor Johnson in this way?

    I also agree that their endorsements won’t mean much if they also don’t turn on their turnout operations for him. But my hunch is they think Vallas can do well in their wards. Not win them outright, but Vallas doesn’t need to win black voters to win. If he gets 1/3 of black voters, he’s almost certain to get over 50%.


  53. - Arsenal - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 3:13 pm:

    ==but I’ve wondered about the GOTV power of the trades==

    The general rule of thumb has been that the trades are good for checks and the public sector unions are good for boots on the ground. But there are exceptions to this. Laborers can usually throw quite a few bodies at a GOTV push.


  54. - 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 3:19 pm:

    The Teibune endorsed Vallas today, surprising no one. Not sure they move any significant votes, but the Tribune endorsement did seem to make a difference for Brian Comer in 43, so maybe it helps Vallas with wealthy white voters who are scared of crime?


  55. - Arsenal - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 3:20 pm:

    Speaking of endorsements, it’s really weird that Vallas has more endorsements from alders, but has basically no love from state and federal legislators. All else being equal, I’d rather have aldermanic support, but again, it depends on their organization. It’s not the Milton Rakove era anymore, these guys can’t all be assumed to have a PC army.


  56. - Boone's is Back - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 4:18 pm:

    75% of the voters in the general election were over 45 years old. Johnson’s numbers skew heavily with younger voters but if they don’t come out in the runoff this poll is useless.


  57. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 4:21 pm:

    ===75% of the voters ===

    It was 67 percent, but yeah. https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/elections/ct-chicago-voter-turnout-numbers-20230304-vfbdfa5klbaird7tkoqzyxmvcq-story.html


  58. - Boone's is Back - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 4:24 pm:

    In honor of St. Patrick’s Day everything gets embellished a bit today Rich


  59. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 4:27 pm:

    ===were over 45 years old===

    How the turnout breaks in percentages with the “over 50” could be the difference


  60. - TinyDancer(FKASue) - Friday, Mar 17, 23 @ 4:31 pm:

    Well, I’ve moved from not voting to not voting for Vallas.
    Can’t imagine a city with no neighborhood public schools.
    Still don’t know if I can pull the lever for Johnson.


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