* New poll…

In the latest poll conducted by Victory Research on March 20-22, Paul Vallas saw his lead over Brandon Johnson shrink from six points to two, 46.3% to 44.2%, from the previous poll conducted March 6-9. […]

While nearly 10% of voters remain undecided, 15.5% say they could still change their mind.

More here, but some trends outside of the 3.45 MoE are emerging as voters get to know the two candidates better.

By far the most important trend is that even after several high-profile endorsements by Black leaders, Vallas’ support among Black voters has dropped by 13 points since the last poll taken March 6-9. Johnson’s Black support is up by 11 points.

Johnson’s support is rising among women (up 4 points), men (up 6 points), age 46-60 (up 5.5 points), and progressives (up 11 points). Again, at least some of this is because people are just finding out who he is (and are overcoming their anger/disappointment that their first round candidate lost).

Vallas is up among men (4 points), White voters (10 points), Latino voters (6 points) and conservatives (10 points). His support among women is essentially unchanged, which is not a good sign.

And undecideds are down from 16 to 10.

…Adding… I chatted last night with an elected official who said the same exact thing, but I didn’t check all three of the pollster’s results today. Vallas is in the mid 40s, where he has been pretty much the whole time. Is 45-46 a Vallas ceiling? The elected thought it was and that Johnson would overcome it. We’ll see…

Victory Research has done three polls of a Johnson-Vallas runoff:

2/12-15: Vallas 46, Johnson 33
3/6-9: Vallas 45, Johnson 39
3/20-23: Vallas 46, Johnson 44

Vallas steady at 46 while Johnson is consolidating support. Looking to be a very tight race. https://t.co/Z6cBRY86HE

— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) March 23, 2023

* Eric Zorn makes a good point today that Johnson’s endorsements are almost all expected in one way or another. Vallas’ backing, however, has included some shockers, including Jesse White. Whether it does him any good or not is yet to be seen.

* Oh, for Pete’s sake…

In debate, Brandon Johnson says the CTU never called for the removal of police officers from CPS schools, but the union signed a 2020 resolution asking the school board to phase out SROs. (CBOE shot it down, but LSCs did vote individually to remove some): https://t.co/HmWySrqd2I pic.twitter.com/9LYPtzS7pX

— Alice Yin (@byaliceyin) March 22, 2023

* The Cook County Democratic Women’s PAC was shut down by the Illinois State Board of Elections way back in 2014 after it was deemed inactive. The committee faced multiple fines. Press release…

Mayoral candidate Paul Vallas will be endorsed Thursday by leaders of Cook County Democratic Women, a grass-roots organization that works to ensure that women have a presence and a strong voice in national and local elections.

* And now let’s look at Senate Bill 2339, which was introduced back in 2018…

Provides that if a law enforcement officer detains a minor for an act that if committed by an adult would constitute vehicular hijacking, aggravated vehicular hijacking, or possession of a stolen motor vehicle, the officer shall deliver the minor to the nearest juvenile officer as provided under the Act. … Provides that should the court order detention, the minor shall be detained, pending the results of a court-ordered psychological evaluation to determine if the minor is a risk to himself, herself, or others.

The bill was sponsored by then Sen. Tony Muñoz. It was amended in the House and then died in the Senate. Brandon Johnson weighed in at the time…

More legislation that criminalizes black children? This is stale & reinforces the attitudes that have led to the mass incarceration of Black people in our nation. Tired of being scapegoats to ignite fear and outright fantasies about the nature of crime in our city #VoteNo #SB2339

— Brandon Johnson (@BrandonCCD1) May 17, 2018

Today from the Vallas campaign…

Chicago is dealing with a major spike in carjackings, with the Chicago Tribune recently reporting that vehicle thefts are up 55% since last year, the largest increase of any U.S. city. But when the state senate unanimously passed a bill to remove loopholes that allowed carjacking suspects to be immediately released with little penalty, Brandon Johnson spoke out against it.

Johnson’s opposition to this common sense public safety measure, coupled with his embrace of the extreme “defund the police” movement, raises significant questions about whether he can be trusted to make Chicago safer according to State Senator Antonio Munoz, who was the lead sponsor of the car theft legislation. Senator Munoz is announcing his endorsement of Paul Vallas for Mayor.

“Chicago has a serious crime problem and we need a Mayor who will side with the victims, not with the perpetrators like Brandon Johnson has done over and over again,” said Senator Munoz. “Brandon Johnson’s approach of defunding the police and opposing stricter penalties for carjacking is the last thing Chicago needs, and that’s why I’m supporting Paul Vallas for Mayor.”

Senator Munoz will be available for comment, if you would like to schedule an interview please contact xxx@xxxxxx.com.

Johnson’s extreme position on crime is clearly out of the mainstream in Chicago, with numerous public opinion polls showing that public safety is the number one issue and residents want more police presence in their neighborhoods.

“Carjacking is an epidemic in our city and it’s shocking that Brandon Johnson tried to stop legislation to ensure that car thieves are held accountable,” said Vallas. “I’m proud to have Senator Munoz’s support because he has a real record of making our community safer, and Brandon Johnson has proven that he can’t be trusted to reduce crime.”

* Moving right along, notice anything missing from this story?…

Separately, Johnson’s campaign has manufactured an endorsement and claimed it’s Vallas’.

Context: Oppo research revealed Vallas on a conservative radio show a few years ago claiming Gov. JB Pritzker and Mayor Lori Lightfoot “act like dictators” for their pandemic executive orders.

The oppo prompted Republican Darren Bailey to talk about it on his Facebook live page, which Johnson’s team is calling an endorsement for Vallas. Bailey didn’t endorse anyone.

Johnson’s team isn’t giving up on pinning the Republican label on Vallas, who was officially endorsed Wednesday by former Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn. Vallas was Quinn’s running mate in his failed 2013 race against Bruce Rauner. Though Vallas’ more recent stumble might be spending too much time on conservative talk shows.

It’s right that Bailey didn’t endorse Vallas, as we discussed yesterday. But Bailey didn’t just “talk about” Brandon Johnson. Bailey said that if Johnson was elected, “it’s going to be a dark day.”

Also, it’s not just that Vallas spent a lot of time on talk radio shows, for crying out loud, it’s what he said on those shows and in other venues. For instance…

After enacting $5.4 bi. in permanent tax hikes Pritzker thinks he can fool voters by offering $1 bi. in temporary election year tax relief. Meanwhile proposed state budget is unbalanced for 21st straight yr despite in $8.1 new Fed COVID relief.@MaryAnnAhernNBC @AmyJacobson @wttw

— Paul Vallas (@PaulVallas) February 3, 2022

And somebody dug up this little quote from Vallas on Jeanne Ives’ podcast last year…

Vallas: Pritzker of course just announced that he’s lifting the mask mandate. You know, the science, it’s like, it’s more political science.

“Political science” was a common phrase used by covid deniers. Just sayin.

* An excerpt from the Sun-Times story on Johnson’s meeting with the Crain’s editorial board…

“Of course, we need the support of Springfield and the City Council [for things like the transaction tax]. … Yes, there’ll be some push and pull on this,” Johnson said.

“That’s why I’m best suited for this position. … I am collaborative. I have relationships in Springfield. My opponent has to figure out how he’s going to convince Democrats to work with him.”

He noted he “used to work” for Illinois Senate President Don Harmon and that Johnson’s three kids “grew up together” with Speaker Chris Welch’s children.

Johnson contrasted his relationship-building approach to Paul Vallas, whose Republican supporters condemned Gov. J.B. Pritzker for his stay-at-home orders during the pandemic.

“You certainly can’t expect the governor to respond to someone who calls him a dictator,” he said.

Johnson could probably offer to babysit the Speaker’s kids for free anytime, anywhere and he still couldn’t pass that transaction tax. It’s folly. But, yeah, decent point about Vallas. A case can be made that New York City’s mayor hurt the Democratic Party last year by focusing on their soft on crime ways. Vallas could be much, much worse.

* Isabel’s roundup…

* Chalkbeat | Chicago school leaders foresee declining revenue but promise more investments: A district report last fall noted the city has shifted costs onto the district and could offload more expenses amid a transition from mayoral control to an elected school board. The report described the district’s financial outlook as “fragile” and warned of a potential $628 million deficit by 2026, which represents about 6% of this year’s $9.5 billion budget.

* Sun-Times | Johnson won’t identify ‘plan B’ for revenue if City Council, legislature resist tax hikes: Johnson’s plan to help bankroll an array of new social programs is the cornerstone of his anti-violence strategy. It initially included a “Metra city surcharge” to raise $40 million “from the suburbs.” It still includes taxes on high-end home sales and financial transactions; a revived employee head tax; increased taxes on jet fuel and hotel rooms; and “new user fees for high-end commercial districts frequented by the wealthy, suburbanites, tourists and business travelers.”

* Block Club | Will Retired Cops Return To CPD? Would More Detectives Curb Crime? Vallas, Johnson Spar Over Public Safety Platforms: Vallas also blamed Johnson and Chicago Teachers Union leadership for extended school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Johnson is a former CTU organizer and the union is one of his largest donors.

* ABC Chicago | Vallas, Johnson spar over Kim Foxx’s performance and policing in schools: “She has led with an incredible amount of integrity. She’s been part of the type of reform that’s needed,” Johnson said. But, Vallas voiced his concerns about Foxx. “She has not been aggressive at keeping dangerous criminals off the street, and the data clearly states it,” Vallas said. … “He remains a paid employee from the Chicago Teachers Union. At the end of the day, what has he run? What has he managed? He’s voted on budgets. He’s never managed a budget,” Vallas said. “We all know someone like Paul who has failed over and over again and continues to be allowed to fail up,” Johnson said.

* CBS Chicago | Johnson, Vallas get heated in attacks on each other’s positions in roundtable forum: One question raised at the forum to which the candidates’ positions has not made headlines before was whether Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx has made Chicago safer. Neither Johnson nor Vallas directly answered the question, but their responses did not suggest they are on the same page about Foxx.

* CBS Chicago | What would Vallas, Johnson do to reverse downtown retail exodus? Both are short on specifics: “Michigan Avenue may have a vision for how they can revitalize – but yet the city regulatory department seems to be an obstacle,” Vallas said. Is Vallas short on specifics? Yes. But so is Johnson. “I’ve thought about this a lot,” Johnson said at a mayoral question-and-answer session earlier this week. “This is really about attracting innovative corporations to the city of Chicago.”

* The Crusader | Coalition of women in ‘spirit of Mayor Washington’ endorses Johnson: Among the scores of women attending a press conference at Rainbow PUSH Coalition headquarters in support of Johnson, was Dr. Jacqueline Jackson, wife of Reverend Jesse Jackson. She told the Chicago Crusader, “We intend to win with Brandon because he’s the best man for the job and I’ve always been for the very best.”

* Read Paul Vallas’ answers to Crain’s candidates’ questionnaire : “From the outside, from information that is publicly available, one might reactively advance proposals for spending and program cuts. But that would make proposals and prioritize solely on the basis of the portion of the iceberg that is above the surface, knowing that the greater mass warranting consideration is beneath the surface. This is further complicated by the fact that the city data is routinely flawed or fluffed, that most portions of the city operate without data-driven program and policy performance metrics and milestones, and more at the margin but not inconsiderable, a practice we came to learn in the last cycle of budget hearings of funds appropriated for specific purpose which the administration did not allow expenditure and implementation.”

* Tribune | Public safety and environmental concerns are at the forefront in 10th Ward runoff: Chico and Guajardo made the April 4 runoff out of the five candidates in the Feb. 28 general election. None of the five won a majority of the vote, forcing the runoff between the top two vote-getters. Chico garnered 40.5% of the vote in February while Guajardo got 26.5%, or about 1,000 fewer votes than Chico, but she’s been steadily beating Chico in fundraising.

* The Hill | Chicago mayoral race underscores city’s racial divisions: “Chicago has always been a city that has been very explicitly divided by racial politics,” explained Twyla Blackmond Larnell, associate professor of political science at Loyola University Chicago and faculty affiliate for the school’s Institute for Racial Justice. “Race is definitely one of the major cornerstones of how politics gets done in the city,” she continued. “Power is divvied up according to racial groups, but also you have to account for who in those groups has access to the social, economic and political resources that are needed to win elections as well.”

* The Triibe | What anti-CTU rhetoric in the mayoral runoff election reveals about Chicago: According to several people who spoke to The TRiiBE, anti-CTU rhetoric during the election is grounded in a perceived fear that if Johnson becomes mayor, the issues that CTU has been organizing around for more than a decade, such as education, housing, and healthcare, would lead to the disruption of the city’s status quo and the interests of Chicago’s elite.

* Block Club | Chicago Schools Poised To Vote On Keeping Police On Campuses: There are 59 police officers stationed across 40 Chicago public schools. Each school will convene a safety committee before local school councils vote by June 2 on keeping officers in schools, officials said.

* Block Club | 36th Ward Candidates To Debate Northwest Side Ward’s Issues Thursday In Ukrainian Village: Villegas is headed to a runoff April 4 after failing to garner a majority of the votes to secure reelection to his third City Council term. As alderperson, the retired marine has pushed for a universal basic income program and to reinstate the City Council’s Office of Veterans Affairs. He’s also endorsed a plan to reopen the closed 13th Police District in West Town, which was closed in 2012 as part of a citywide consolidation of police resources.

* Lynn Osmond, Larita Clark | Don’t forget tourism in the economic development equation: We all agree that Chicago is a great destination to live, work and play. As we look to the future, we want to work with the next mayor to continue to build a positive narrative about Chicago. This does not mean ignoring our challenges; rather, it is about recognizing our strengths while working to address our weaknesses. We need to share the positive stories about the city we love and talk about why Chicago is a great place to visit.

* Block Club | Tickets, Signs Not Stopping Illegal Parking In Bike Lanes Where 2 Cyclists Killed, Northwest Siders Say: The 3800 block of North Milwaukee Avenue near North Kilbourn Avenue — which has seen two cyclists killed since 2019, car crashes, illegal parking and ongoing construction — has been set to receive concrete curb barriers since the second half of 2022 as part of the city’s bike safety upgrade to the area — but less than half of the Milwaukee stretch has completed barriers.