Question of the day
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This statement from US Rep. Darin LaHood’s political director is also posted below, but I wanted to isolate it here…
Senator Durbin’s retirement was long overdue. For decades, Illinoisans have known him as the face of Washington dysfunction — pushing liberal policies that have made life more expensive, our borders less secure, and our streets less safe.
While we wish him well in retirement, Illinoisans are ready to turn the page. Voters are tired of out-of-touch liberal policies that have failed working families, and prioritized illegal immigrants and far-left ideological agendas over hard working American taxpayers.
Congressman LaHood has earned strong support from voters across the 34 counties he’s represented in Congress, winning each election by overwhelming margins. He’s championed impactful economic growth policies and been a leader in strengthening our national security against growing threats like China and Iran. His leadership has consistently driven strong financial backing, resulting in nearly $6 million in cash on hand at the end of last quarter.
As the 2026 election approaches, Congressman LaHood remains focused on delivering conservative leadership for all Illinoisans that offers a clear alternative to the failed liberal policies driving families and businesses out of Illinois.
Folks… it sure looks like he’s running.
* The Question: If LaHood does run for US Senate, what do you believe are his chances in both the primary and the general? Explain.
- LOL - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:44 pm:
In this political climate… not good at all. It’s going to be a blood bath for the GOP during the midterms and even if he runs the best campaign in the world that isn’t going to fly in blue IL while Trump is in office. But good luck to him.
- Steve - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:48 pm:
He might do very well in the primary. He has record and a name. The problem is: a lot of his potential base moved with their feet to other states. The candidate that wins the Democratic primary will win the general election.
- Save Ferris - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:48 pm:
Far better in a general than a primary.
“Any type of fraud or improprieties have not been there (in the 2020 presidential election).” will end his primary chances unless there are so many candidates 30% wins it.
- Steve Rogers - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:49 pm:
Primary: his chances are good. He’s got name recognition because of his dad. He’s got maga bonafides since he worships at the feet of the orange master.
General: not a chance in a pretty solid blue state.
- Red Ketcher - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:49 pm:
Chances = Longshot
Not Far Enough Right for Primary
Too Far Right for the General
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:51 pm:
I think LaHood has a good chance to win the ILGOP primary, but only if he can convince the Republican Senate Campaign Committee that he is the smart pick. The RSCC should be able to provide some key resources and open a lot of national doors if they decide they want to pin the Democrats down in Illinois (which they should).
So the real GOP primary will be decided by the power brokers under John Thune. I think LaHood has a chance to be the RSCC’s pick. But if not, and they go with someone else, or decide to stay neutral (madness), then I can see a MAGA candidate emerge and perhaps deny LaHood the primary.
After all of that, I think LaHood might give the GOP its best shot of making the 2026 IL Senate race close and forcing Dems to spend a lot of time and money to keep the seat. But keep it they will, whether vs. LaHood in a competitive race, or vs. a MAGA type in a wipeout.
In summry: 50-50 chance to win the nomination. 1 in 8 chance to win the seat. And I might be being generous.
- Remember the Alamo II - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:52 pm:
Probably wins a primary. No shot at winning the general.
Midterm elections have been skewed towards the Democrats here for at least 8-10 years. With Trump in the White House, I do not expect that trend to change.
- ;) - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:56 pm:
Longshot. But at least it is an option and not Darren Bailey or Tom Devore.
- Concerned Observer - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:56 pm:
The Republican primary will be won by the candidate who gets the Donald Trump endorsement.
To get that endorsement, the candidate will have to pledge fealty and thus tack harder to the right. In a D+11 state, in an off-year. quite possibly in a recessionary economy.
The general election won’t be called at 7:00:02 as it was when JB won re-election…but 7:00:05 isn’t out of the realm of possibility, IMO.
- NIU Grad - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:57 pm:
Unless he goes full kook, I don’t see him getting past the weirdos in the primary. No matter how many aggressive statements he puts out, he’ll still be a “RINO” incumbent to the Freedom Caucus folks. The way I see it: Losing a US Senate race is his current path to political retirement…not like the House is much fun nowadays.
I will reiterate what I posted in the other thread: I would love to see a comparison of how many federal dollars Sen. Durbin brought to Rep. LaHood’s district compared to how much the distinguished congressman has.
- RNUG - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:57 pm:
He’s got the name recognition, plus he’s quick out of the gate, so he should win the primary.
Likely doesn’t have much of a chance in the general unless he pivots to the center really quickly. Even then he will have an uphill battle. It’s really going to come down to who his Democrat opponent is.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 12:58 pm:
Good for the primary, bad for the general. He’s not running in his Daddy’s district this time.
If he wins a competitive primary, I suspect it won’t be by running as a moderate. So — let’s hear his views about what people aren’t people and how he hates due process.
- Penny - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:00 pm:
Assuming he can raise adequate funds and DT doesn’t cause a recession or worse with his unilateral (and likely illegal)imposition of Tariffs.
I agree his chances are good in a primary although he might be too moderate unless he starts to bend the knee to DT which will hurt him in Deep Blue Illinois in the General Election but not as much now as in 2018 given DT’s gains among independent voters in 2024.
He will have a hard time running against a moderate Democrat.
I think he has a better than 50% chance against a progressive Democrat if the Dem candidate is supportive of defunding police, open borders and out of touch on women’s sports, Gaza, and other far left issues that poll very, very poorly.
- Chad - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:01 pm:
It has been a long time since the Thompson/Percy Republicans held sway among the Illinois general electorate. A successful GOP candidate will need very significant fundraising, an extraordinary ability to generate earned media and a positive (although not overwhelming) relationship with Trump. I don’t think Darren has those attributes. This may be a bit outside the box, but Richard Porter might have the necessary resources and qualities. He looks like Rauner but comes off kindly. He has access to the funds. Perhaps most important, he is really smart and articulate in a not off-putting way. Take a look at some of his appearances on the Real Clear Politics podcast to see what I am talking about. And he takes down nut cases that deserve it — like what he said to Gates on national television during the GOP convention. Never met him but am impressed at a distance.
- Reality Check - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:01 pm:
Great example of how gross and devoid of any compass IL GOP (really, ALL GOP) has become. For now, simply say, ‘Although we differ on issues, we share a commitment to service and the people of Illinois. There will time for politics tomorrow. Irrespective of party affiliation, we all take our hats off to Dick Durbin today.”
- Roman - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:01 pm:
If he had his Dad’s image as a middle-of-the-road problem solver, he would be a good candidate for the GOP. But he’s gone all-in with MAGA, which kills him in the ‘burbs, which kills any chance in a General Election.
- Scoot - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:04 pm:
50/50 in primary and 0 in the general. Adding this statewide run will not help bolster him for any future statewide runs.
- SOIL M - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:06 pm:
50-50 at best in primary depending on who else runs. Zero in general
- Donnie Elgin - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:06 pm:
Lahood is a primary winner as he’s got a family name with good recognition, he brings in the Arab American vote, he’s got pertinent experience, and no “crazy” factor. As for the General, who knows outside of Raja none of the early dem candidates have statewide name recognition. And who knows how well any of them will be as candidates in a race with national impacts?
- Excitable Boy - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:07 pm:
Depending on the opponent I’m not so sure about his chance in the primary. He’s been a reliable lickspittle for dear leader Trump, but it wouldn’t be hard to paint him with the nepotism/career politician brush not to mention pop’s little scandal.
No chance in the general for the same reasons along with many, many more.
- ArchPundit - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:08 pm:
He’s too mild personally to be the likely primary winner. While he’s very conservative he doesn’t do the performative outrage well.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:12 pm:
=== And he takes down nut cases that deserve it===
Explain Porter’s closeness to Tom DeVore.
lol
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:13 pm:
LaHood will struggle in a primary because he is not far enough right. That could change if his people give him cue cards with the right words on it.
No chance in the general though.
I have been in the room with him, in a small group setting, on more than one occasion. He has never had an original thought. Ever. He is limited to the bullet points that he can memorize. His congressional and state districts were not hard right in the southern Illinois sense and so he breezed to his seat. He is a pure nepo baby in the political sense and has accomplished almost nothing legislatively in any elected seat.
- Perrid - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:13 pm:
It sounds like he’s running, but I don’t think he has a snowball’s chance in [redacted]
- Mr. D - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:15 pm:
Excellent chances. Giving up your law license just before signing onto the (now Speaker) Johnson-led brief to the US Supreme Court arguing the 2020 election was stolen means he will do anything and say anything necessary to win.
- Ucci - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:27 pm:
thats one way to take a leave from Congress. No courage to stand up to Trump, run a failed general campaign, come back later when the smoke clears
- Jerry - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:31 pm:
Not much if a chance. Too Liberal to be a Republican. And agree with a post above. Senator Durbin brought more money into your district than you Daril.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:32 pm:
===Too Liberal to be a Republican===
lol
Some of y’all are thinking of his father.
- Bob - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:34 pm:
He’s not running.
- papak - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:36 pm:
He can win the primary. Trump’s endorsement is really all that matters in the GOP primary. The R bench is non existent anymore.
The general is safe Dem unless Blago some how wins the nomination.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:37 pm:
===unless Blago some how wins the nomination===
lol
- Who else - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:42 pm:
It’s hard to sell general election voters on being the right choice when you just voted to cut Medicaid and eliminate Head Start and programs for kids with disabilities.
- Stark - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 1:42 pm:
Primary? Sure. General? Negative percentage chance.
- Mark Batinick - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 2:00 pm:
Fringe candidates can’t win Us Senate primaries because of the financing rules. Salvi easily won the primary in 2022 because she had a bit of money. LaHood wins the primary easily. He would be the obvious underdog in the general. But his chances change greatly based on who makes it through the Dem primary. Not perfect timing for him but these opportunites don’t often appear.
- Lakefront - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 2:01 pm:
Good chance in the primary. Decent (but best GOP) chance in the General if everything goes his way.
For the primary: remember there won’t be any significant direct Uhlein money. Lahood will likely get national-backing. Even the right-wing bench is somewhat depleted in IL - aside from the likes of Bailey, DeVore, M. Miller. If they’re desperate to lose, LaHood beats someone like Neimerg or Del Mar in a primary.
In the national: Illinois is blue. No doubt. But if national GOP gets its act together, LaHood could make it close. Trump had best GOP performance in 20 years. That means something. Everything would have to swing his way but he’s got the best shot.
- Annonin' - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 2:02 pm:
Toss up
But media will have better chance to detail his role in The family deal with Trump over the “loan”
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 2:20 pm:
I could totally see him clearing the field of “serious” candidates in the primary. And I’ll leave a 5% chance he could win the general. The democratic primary winner is going to win barring a major scandal close to the election. I honestly don’t think the guy has the capacity to win an election in which he is not an incumbent. Not to mention the serious headwinds facing Illinois republicans in an off year election.
- Really? - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 2:22 pm:
He can’t win, so he won’t run. Why would he leave a safe seat in favor of the only defeat of his political career?
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 2:35 pm:
LaHood will not win the primary and would not stand a chance in the General Election.
He has been a do-nothing Congressman, while at the same time lacking the fire that energizes the base. He also cannot raise money in Washington, Chicago, or grassroots.
I don’t know who’s been filling his head with dreams of the Senate, but I encourage them to get paid upfront.
I think Bost has a real shot at winning the Primary. Or Miller. But out of Congress, I think only former Rep. Rodney Davis has a chance of winning statewide in the General.
Lake, Cook, and DuPage are most likely to produce a primary winner that has a shot in the General.
Not sure why Jeanne Ives is not being mentioned.
A Davis v. Ives, Mike Z. v Proft rematch would be awesome.
- So_Ill - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 2:46 pm:
I would say he has a less than 1% chance of winning a general election.
Probably zero, if we’re being honest.
- clec dcn - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 2:55 pm:
Certainly, he can win the primary. I generally agree with all he has to offer but not much of a chance in really winning the race in Illinois. Illinois is deeply blue, and I see no way he can get even close. The question he has to answer himself is what does he want in the future. I assume he can stay where he is much easier.
- Middle Way - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 2:57 pm:
LaHood could definitely win a primary, but no way he could win a general with Trump 2.0 heading the way that it is and in a blue state. Richard Porter, LOL. He’s an inside guy, and smart, but not a retail politician. The only guy that could have possibly won statewide, in an alternate world, lives in Texas now, unfortunately.
- Middle Way - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 2:57 pm:
LaHood could definitely win a primary, but no way he could win a general with Trump 2.0 heading the way that it is and in a blue state. Richard Porter, LOL. He’s an inside guy, and smart, but not a retail politician. The only guy that could have possibly won statewide, in an alternate world, lives in Texas now, unfortunately.
- old guy - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 3:23 pm:
Why bother unless he wants to give up House seat?
- Jacque Pepin’s Left Arm - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 3:26 pm:
La Hood could win the primary. To have any success in the general, he’d have to tone down the MAGA. Not sure if he can do that though, because he has nothing else.
- Donnie Elgin - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 3:40 pm:
=Mike Z. v Proft=
Right or wrong, the bloom is of the rose for Zalewski. He may have clean hands, but the stain of MJM on his father/wife will be toxic for a few more years.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 3:43 pm:
===bloom is of the rose for Zalewski===
Dude, maybe it’s time for a nap. The reference was to Mike Zolnierowicz. Not everything can be turned into your usual spin.
- H-W - Wednesday, Apr 23, 25 @ 3:43 pm:
To win the primary, LaHood will have to swerve even farther to the right to convince DeVore that he is not a RINO. While that might sound silly, I think an Eastern Bloc candidate will emerge and will give LaHood fits if her runs in the Primary.
As to the General, LaHood really does not have much to speak of in terms of accomplishments. Beyond speaks and rhetoric, he is just a consistent vote on the floor of Congress for other people’s agendas. He should be easy to beat.