* Reveille Research press release…
Illinois is deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the state, and Darren Bailey is the only Republican candidate positioned to capitalize on this frustration. He dominates the primary ballot test and commands clear leads in one-on-one matchups with both Jim Mendrick and Ted Dabrowski. While a majority of voters still undecided in the primary, Bailey is uniquely placed to consolidate support and secure the nomination.
* Let’s start with state direction…
As we’ve discussed before, that’s actually not a horrible “wrong track” number. Wrong track polled in the high 60s to mid 80s starting in 2008, peaking at 84 percent under Bruce Rauner. The last time I wrote about it, in 2022, wrong track was down to 52 percent.
* Republican Primary ballot test…
* Bailey v. Mendrick…
* Bailey v. Dabrowski…
* Demographics…
* Methodology…
Reveille Research conducted this statewide survey of likely General Election voters in Illinois from September 4–6, 2025. The survey reached 1,008 respondents, with a margin of error of ±3.1%. Respondents were randomly selected from a comprehensive list of registered voters.
Results underwent a rigorous weighting process to align the sample with the expected demographic composition of participants in the 2025 General Election. This ensures the findings accurately reflect the electorate and corrects for potential non-response bias.
The survey began by asking voters whether they believed Illinois was headed in the right direction or wrong direction. Following this, respondents identified as Republican primary voters were asked about their preference in the gubernatorial primary, including both the full ballot and head-to-head tests between Darren Bailey and his opponents.
Bailey clearly has significant name ID. We’ll see how much money Dabrowski can raise. He’s busted the caps and pulled in over $900K this week, on top of his $250K loan.
Not sure about that “rigorous weighting process” part, but I’m told 454 self-identified Republican primary voters were polled on the GOP questions.
- Roadrager - Friday, Sep 12, 25 @ 2:41 pm:
Whether it’s against the field or one other candidate, Bailey loses to “ah jeez, I don’t know” by fifteen points.
- Huh? - Friday, Sep 12, 25 @ 2:48 pm:
Beetle is going to have a tough time bearing unsure.
Wonder where i can be the campaign literature for unsure.
- Suburban Guy - Friday, Sep 12, 25 @ 2:57 pm:
Missing in their Republican sub-sample is the fact that this is a General Election poll and they only cherry-picked Direction of the State but wouldn’t release any Pritzker numbers or Bailey vs Pritzker head-to-head. Leads me to believe Bailey is down bigly once he wins a yawner of a Republican Primary.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 12, 25 @ 2:58 pm:
Good point, Suburban Guy.
- low level - Friday, Sep 12, 25 @ 3:57 pm:
I’m sure Mendoza will help Ted’s numbers when they conduct another poll, especially given their “rigorous weighting process”/ s
JB4L - JB for Life