* Subscribers know more. Crain’s…

The long-feared $771 million “fiscal cliff” facing Chicago’s transit agencies may not be as steep as expected. The Regional Transit Authority is poised to revise its 2026 budget shortfall to less than $300 million. […]

The lowered projection is only for 2026 and the fiscal cliff will creep back up to over $500 million if the Legislature doesn’t deliver a bailout that’s been under negotiation for over a year. Those advocating for a transit overhaul have not welcomed the dramatic reduction, saying it could give weary lawmakers up for re-election an easy excuse to kick the can down the road.

The RTA previously estimated the region’s three transit agencies — Metra, Pace and the Chicago Transit Authority — faced a collective $771 million fiscal cliff beginning next year when federal COVID-19 relief funding expires.

That number will be lowered to somewhere south of $300 million at a meeting tomorrow of the RTA committee created to tackle the crisis, according to sources familiar with the situation and to a report in Capitol Fax. The RTA is meeting with the transit boards today to finalize the estimate.

* The Regional Transit Authority…

At this early stage of the budget process, we can project an estimated budget gap of approximately $200 million for 2026 that will balloon back to the full cliff of about $790 million in 2027 and will grow each year. pic.twitter.com/0Ht61gkNON

— RTA Chicago (@RTA_Chicago) October 3, 2025

* House transit negotiator Rep. Kam Buckner…

Today’s RTA update takes a $770 million ‘fiscal cliff’ and revises it to ~$300 million.

That’s a huge swing. I’m glad cost controls and stronger receipts helped-but a shift that big, that fast, is exactly why we need guardrails, transparency, and real reform.

Let’s be clear: this cannot be read as a ‘nothing to see here’ moment or a reason for Springfield to stand down. We are moving forward this veto session with governance reform, consolidation of duplicative back-office work across CTA/Metra/Pace, independent financial oversight, public performance scorecards and a unified regional authority that replaces siloed alphabet-soup turf with one plan. Our principle stands: no revenue without reform.

We’ve been both deliberate and urgent at the same time-insisting on current, verified numbers before we legislate. While the RTA spent nearly a million dollars in April on an ad blitz to guilt and bully lawmakers into writing a check without reforms, the House in May did the opposite: we read the budget, read the room, and showed our work.

Speaker Welch has been clear: getting this right matters more than getting it over with.

Our working group put in the hours—all last year and extra innings all summer-and we’ll finish the job in veto session.

There are only two choices here, either keep kicking the can or we can build a stable, grown-up transit system that the economy can plan around and our state can grow around. We’re going to do the latter: long-term funding, hard guardrails, and receipts riders can see. Less drama. More delivery.

* House transit negotiator Rep. Eva-Dina Delgado…

Our legislative working group has engaged in a deliberate and thoughtful process for over a year now and has had to spend this summer digging deeper precisely because the RTA cannot be trusted to appropriately plan and communicate. This is one of the major reasons any funding must come with significant governance reform. As we head into veto session, the choice in front of us remains clear: We can continue to let the RTA cobble together patchwork solutions while delivering unreliable service, or we can bring sustainable long-term funding to the system and true governance reform. It’s a choice between kicking the can down the road and finding ourselves at another cliff a few short years from now, or solving the problem. I remain committed to solving the problem and delivering the transit system our constituents deserve in the upcoming veto session. 

* Senate transit negotiator Sen. Ram Villivalam…

Solving for the fiscal cliff through cuts, fare increases, and a Band-Aid is not solving for it at all.

Now more than ever, I am committed to the robust reforms and transformational funding that are necessary for our residents to have a safe, reliable, accessible, and integrated public transit system that is world class for the next several decades.

With that in mind, the Illinois State Senate passed House Bill 3438. We look forward to working with the House and Governor’s office to come to a resolution that stabilizes the transit services our residents rely on to get to their school, job, and/or doctor.

As with any major public policy that impacts millions of people, kicking the can down the road should not be the option that is pursued.

* Labor, transit and environmental advocates…

Following the RTA Ad Hoc Committee on Transit Funding announcement claiming Illinois’ initial transit fiscal cliff has fallen to $202 million, Tim Drea, on behalf of the Labor Alliance for Public Transportation and Amy Rynell, on behalf of the Illinois Clean Jobs Coalition, are calling on lawmakers and the RTA to work together to address the dire need for transit funding and reform during the October veto session instead of kicking the can further down the road.

“While recent projections from the RTA may impact the timing of the fiscal cliff by a few months, the bottom line remains: transit cannot wait, and we need better, safer, more reliable service now. Transit riders and workers deserve better, and they’ve made it clear that they want the reforms and long-term solutions provided by dedicated revenue levels that were negotiated in the spring legislative session,” said Amy Rynell on behalf of the Illinois Clean Jobs Coalition. “RTA is applying a patchwork of short-term funding solutions, fare increases and slow-rolling much needed improvements to a system that drives so much of Illinois’ economy, and which so many Illinoisans rely on. While the RTA downplays the urgency and need for action, it’s time for the Illinois General Assembly to reverse transit’s downward spiral and finally take action to reform the RTA and invest $1.5 billion in transit.”

“We’ve sat through numerous public hearings, forums, and conversations with transit workers and riders. Their ask is the same each time: fix and fund transit,” stated Illinois AFL-CIO President Tim Drea. “Transit workers are walking on eggshells not knowing if they’ll be issued a pink slip when they clock in for a day’s work. Working people, students, and seniors that rely on transit at all hours worry that their service will be cut. They fear that they’ll find themselves without a way to get to their job, school, or doctor’s appointments. What we are seeing today is a short-sighted attempt to plug a budget hole without a long-term solution. The people and taxpayers of Illinois deserve better; we cannot keep kicking the can down the road. Now is the time to fully fund and pass transit reforms.”

* Meanwhile, from the AP…

President Donald Trump’s administration will withhold $2.1 billion for Chicago infrastructure projects, the White House budget director said Friday, expanding funding fights that have targeted Democratic areas during the government shutdown.

The pause affects a long-awaited plan to extend the city’s Red Line train. The money was “put on hold to ensure funding is not flowing via race-based contracting,” budget director Russ Vought wrote on social media.

* More…

* Tribune | Metra, CTA awarded federal grants that could require cooperation with immigration enforcement: FEMA is part of the Department of Homeland Security, which earlier this year updated its grant terms and conditions to include provisions requiring cooperation with immigration enforcement. Illinois and a coalition of other states sued over those grant terms and won a permanent injunction in their favor last week. Plaintiffs in the lawsuit won’t be subject to the grant’s immigration conditions while the injunction is in place, according to FEMA documents. However, the terms would apply immediately should the injunction be stayed or vacated, the documents say.