Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » COGFA: ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ appears to be undermining state’s corporate tax forecast
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
COGFA: ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ appears to be undermining state’s corporate tax forecast

Monday, Oct 6, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller

* COGFA’s September revenue report

After a mediocre start in the first couple months of the fiscal year, September revenues deposited into the General Funds came in much higher, providing a solid first quarter of collections for FY 2026. For the month, revenues rose $413 million or 8.6% thanks to strong growth in Personal Income Tax receipts, Sales Tax revenues, and Federal Sources. Through the 1 st Quarter of FY 2026, revenues are now up $450 million or 3.7%. September’s totals were aided by an additional receipting day this month as compared to a year ago.

After a subpar performance to start the year, Personal Income Tax gross receipts grew $307 million as compared to last September, for growth of 10.3%. On a net basis, when subtracting out distributions to the Refund Fund and the Local Government Distributive Fund, these receipts were up $260 million. This month’s gains were despite the fact that the “true-ups” from the annual reallocations of business-related income are and will be notably less than last year (discussed in greater detail on page 8 of the monthly). While the details behind this month’s growth will not be released for a few days, the timing of withholding tax payments and the “extra” receipting day is believed to be the main cause of the strong showing this month.

Sales Tax receipts continued its recent upward trend by rising $54 million or 5.6% in September. Even when accounting for non- General Funds distributions to the Road Fund and certain transportation funds, net receipts were still up a positive $21 million or 2.3% for the month.

Also contributing to the strong month of receipts was a bounce-back month in revenues received from Federal Sources. These deposits grew $239 million or 199.2% in September. As noted in last month’s briefing, Federal Sources are highly volatile and subject to irregular receipting patterns. September’s gains easily erased the $114 million deficit that was present after the first two months of the fiscal year.

The growth in these prominent revenue sources overshadowed the disappointing month for Corporate Income Tax receipts. For the month, gross revenues were $196 million lower than last September, resulting in a decline of -18.1%. On a net basis, revenues were down $157 million. This is despite the fact that true-up reallocation adjustments (including the first of five adjustments that occurred in September) will be a net positive for Corporate Income Tax receipts this fiscal year (see page 8) . A possible explanation for the disappointing revenue totals for this source so far is discussed on page 5.

In the category of “All Other State Sources”, revenues were a combined $19 million higher, though the performance of individual sources was mixed. Revenues from the Estate Tax grew the most with a gain of $22 million. Other Sources were up $9 million while Interest on State Funds & Investments improved by $3 million. Losses in individual revenue sources this month were relatively minor. Insurance Taxes were down $7 million. Corporate Franchise Taxes were $5 million lower. Liquor Taxes fell $2 million, while Public Utility Taxes were $1 million behind last September’s pace.

It was also a positive month for Transfers In. Overall, these transfers were $31 million higher in September. Lottery Transfers improved from its earlier declines with growth of $16 million. Gaming Transfers were up $11 million and the Sports Wagering Transfer added an additional $7 million. Other Transfers slipped $3 million this month, while Cannabis Transfers were flat.

* More on the corporate income tax

While the majority of revenue sources have performed reasonably well to start the fiscal year, the same cannot be said for the Corporate Income Tax. Following September’s declines, receipts from 5 this source are now down $270 million through the first quarter—a drop of 18.9%. On a net basis, the decline stands at $215 million.

As discussed in the July Monthly Briefing, this revenue stream was originally projected to grow by 10.8% over FY 2025 actuals, largely due to several revenue-enhancing provisions enacted at the end of the spring session via P.A. 104-0006. These provisions include a tax amnesty program scheduled for October and November, a shift from the “Joyce” to the “Finnigan” method for apportioning certain business income, and changes to the treatment of foreign-source dividends under the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) & 80/20 Safe Harbor provisions. At the time of the FY 2026 budget introduction, the Governor’s Office projected a positive net impact of $438 million from these corporate tax changes.

However, the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July—after the State budget had been finalized—may offset much of the anticipated corporate tax revenue growth from these state-level reforms. Key components of the Act, including the permanent reinstatement of 100% bonus depreciation for qualifying property and expanded deductibility of business interest expenses, will reduce federal taxable income. Because Illinois conforms to many aspects of the federal tax code, these changes are likely to lower State Corporate Tax Revenues relative to earlier expectations. While proponents argue that the federal provisions could spur economic growth and eventually boost tax revenues in the future, the near-term impact in FY 2026 may be a net reduction in State Corporate Income Tax collections.

As a result, the Corporate Income Tax will remain a particularly difficult revenue source to forecast for the remainder of the fiscal year. It remains unclear how businesses will react to the various changes and whether the positive revenue effects of the state-level changes will outweigh the declining revenue impact of the federal changes. The sharp 18.1% decline in September may reflect a correction in estimated tax payments made earlier in the year, possibly in response to the recent tax changes, but it could also serve as an early warning of continued weakness in this revenue source for FY 2026.

* But

While the potential reduction of Corporate Income Tax receipts this fiscal year is a concern for State coffers, revenue totals are expected to get a boost from other areas (beyond original budgetary expectations) and could mitigate or even outweigh these losses. For example, the Income Tax Refund Fund Transfer was conservatively forecast in May to provide $450 million in revenues for FY 2026. Based on June’s end-of-year balance, this transfer is now anticipated to total nearly $800 million (including the $150 million transferred in August) or approximately $350 million more than the assumed budgetary value. Additional General Funds growth may also come from newly enacted measures, such as the per-wager tax on online sports betting, which will flow into the General Revenue Fund via the Sports Wagering Transfer.

In short, while the decrease in Corporate Income Tax receipts is concerning, other revenue sources may offset these declines.

Discuss.

       

1 Comment »
  1. - RNUG - Monday, Oct 6, 25 @ 10:18 am:

    Translation: we’re in uncharted territory and are going to take a wait and see attitude; if need be we can always panic later.


TrackBack URI

Anonymous commenters, uncivil comments, rumor-mongering, disinformation and profanity of any kind will be deleted.

(required)

(not required)



* News coverage roundup: Illinois, Chicago sue Trump over National Guard deployment
* Catching up with the federal candidates
* Say No To Anti-Competitive Transmission Legislation
* COGFA: 'Big Beautiful Bill' appears to be undermining state's corporate tax forecast
* RETAIL: Strengthening Communities Across Illinois
* Worries over deteriorating business climate after agreed bill process abandoned
* Protect the 340B Program to Enhance Healthcare Services in Low-Income Communities
* Isabel’s morning briefing (Updated)
* Open thread
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* New and (hopefully improved) live coverage
* Pritzker: Trump administration plans to federalize 300 members of the Illinois National Guard - Now says Texas National Guard will be deployed (Updated x4)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
October 2025
September 2025
August 2025
July 2025
June 2025
May 2025
April 2025
March 2025
February 2025
January 2025
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller