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A million Illinoisans have voted so far

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Impressive…


* AP

Election officials say early voting is increasingly popular. Illinois has expanded its early voting period.

Daily pre-election early voting totals weren’t available for previous years.

Officials say during 2012’s general election, nearly 16 percent of registered voters voted early at polls, representing 22 percent of the nearly 5.3 million votes.

  24 Comments      


Hey! Cub fans!

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Don’t blow it tonight. Congrats.

  71 Comments      


Caption contest!

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a reader…

Rich,

I’m sure most voters across the state are sick of political mailers. Well, my friend got 14 copies of the same thing from Katie Stuart today.

* Stuart is running against Rep. Dwight Kay (R-Glen Carbon)…

  44 Comments      


Kirk raised just $300K in first 19 days of October

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Trib

Newly filed campaign finance paperwork shows Republican U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk raised less than $300,000 during the first 19 days of October, leaving him with $576,279 for his re-election effort’s final push.

That contrasts with the Democratic challenger, two-term U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth of Hoffman Estates. Duckworth’s pre-election report for the same time period showed her raising $860,559, with $2.5 million left ahead of Tuesday’s election.

That comes after the two candidates released third-quarter fundraising numbers last month. Kirk reported raising nearly $1.2 million for his re-election bid from July through September, compared with $4.1 million for Duckworth during the same time period.

Kirk had more than $3.1 million in July but spent almost $3 million during the third quarter, leaving him with nearly $1.4 million to start October. Duckworth had more than three times that amount at $4.3 million.

Ouch.

There are rank and file Illinois state legislators and challengers who raised way more money than Kirk last month. Quite a lot of them, in fact.

* Related…

* Hillary Clinton criticizes Sen. Mark Kirk in op-ed

* Scott Reeder: Kirk’s comment about Duckworth’s mother all about race: The parents in question weren’t of immediate European descent, leaving Trump, Kirk and others of their ilk free to attack their children’s patriotism. Don’t believe me? Well, how often have you heard anyone attack Trump for having a mother born in Scotland?

  13 Comments      


New Jersey takes a strong lead!

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bloomberg

New Jersey became the state with the worst-funded public pension system in the U.S. in 2015, followed closely by Kentucky and Illinois.

The Garden State had $135.7 billion less than it needs to cover all the benefits that have been promised, a $22.6 billion increase over the prior year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Illinois’s unfunded pension liabilities rose to $119.1 billion from $111.5 billion.

The two were among states whose retirement systems slipped further behind as rock-bottom bond yields and lackluster stock-market gains caused investment returns to fall short of targets. The median state pension had 74.5 percent of assets needed to meet promised benefits, down from 75.6 percent the prior year. The decline followed two years of gains. The shortfall for states overall was $1.1 trillion in 2015.[…]

While New Jersey only has 37.5 cents available to pay each $1 of benefits, South Dakota, the state with the best-funded pension, had $1.04, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Kentucky, the state with the second-worst funded retirement system, had a ratio of assets to liabilities of 37.8 percent, followed by Illinois at 40.2 percent.

So, New Jersey and Illinois together make up about 23 percent of the combined unfunded liability of all states in the nation.

Lovely.

* Related…

* Illinois gets more awful news from its largest pension fund: On Oct. 28, TRS’ board of trustees voted to seek a state contribution in fiscal 2018 of $4.56 billion—up a whopping $561 million, or 14.5 percent, over this year’s $3.99 billion.

  27 Comments      


Calm down

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* An Illinois Review headline

ILLINOIS INVADES PRIVACY OF THE HAIR SALON. REQUIRES HAIRDRESSERS TO REPORT ON CLIENTS.

The comments are quite something

Now the useless politicians of both parties add to the police state with new snitch policies…just like the Chinese Cultural Revolution in 1966.

Um, no.

* If you actually read the story that the IR piece is based on, you’ll see that reporting abuse is not legally mandated

A new Illinois law requires all licensed hair dressers to get training to help identify signs of domestic abuse in their clients.

“Any kinds of tender spots on the scalp that are unexplainable or bruising along the hairline too,” says [Family Resources director Brittney Delp].

Stylists will take a one hour class every two years when they get their license renewed. […]

The law protects stylists from lawsuits if they report signs of abuse. But it does not require them to report any signs of abuse to police.

Emphasis added.

The statute is here. And it’s based on a national awareness effort by the Professional Beauty Association.

  14 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Greg Hinz on yesterday’s story about Gov. Rauner not yet publicly releasing his income tax returns

Madigan spokesman Steve Brown says the speaker “complies with all of the applicable law. If someone wants to change (the law), file a bill and we’ll have a debate.”

But shouldn’t the speaker disclose his taxes voluntarily if the governor is doing so?

No. “There’s a vast difference in the powers” of the offices of speaker and governor, Brown replied. And besides, “the governor has a practice” of releasing his taxes and ought to stick with it. Madigan has a different practice.

* The Question: Should Speaker Madigan release his income tax returns? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


bike tracks

  91 Comments      


Idle threats?

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Possible gubernatorial candidate Chris Kennedy lambasted Gov. Rauner in Crain’s for staying mostly mum on Donald Trump

In the face of this very partial accounting of Trump’s misdeeds, Rauner’s silence must be called what it is: complicity with Trump’s hate.

Does Rauner remain quiet because he’s not a woman, Latino, African American, Jewish, Muslim, LGTBQ, or a veteran? Does Rauner not understand he is the governor of a state whose citizens are numerously represented among those groups? Does he not appreciate Illinois’ diversity is its strength and a reason businesses locate here? Does he not recognize his duty as his party’s leader to take a stand on behalf of Republicans (and everyone in our state) against Trump’s ugly words? Does he agree with what Trump says?

We are left to wonder. Rauner’s haughty dismissals of questions about his Trump support, as if Illinoisans don’t deserve to know why, is especially unfortunate considering how many Republican officials have spoken out against their nominee.

* His conclusion

Whether it’s because he is afraid of the electorate, deliberately malicious, or incompetent, Rauner’s defective moral compass is an embarrassment to the Land of Lincoln, named for our greatest president who gave his life to defend the democratic values Trump would destroy. Illinoisans will not forget Rauner chose to remain mute in the face of Trump’s demagoguery, unwilling to be counted when it mattered by saying what all decent people know is true: Donald Trump is unfit for the presidency and a danger to our republic.

I dunno. People have pretty short memories. We’ll see.

* Ron Gidwitz’s pro-Rauner piece in Crain’s also ends with a threat

The truth is that the governor is focused on one thing: fixing Illinois. Taking his milquetoast statement supporting the future Republican presidential nominee as proof of Rauner’s true intentions is an insult to the intelligence of the electorate. People subjected to those misguided and inane ads will remember that—both on November 8th and into the future.

I think the “people” Gidwitz is talking about mostly reside in the governor’s orbit. But, maybe not.

* Which threat do you think is more credible? Or is neither threat credible?

  38 Comments      


Unprecedented spending in an unprecedented year

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WBEZ

Seth Lewis, a Republican who has benefited from Rauner’s generosity, is running for the state Senate in Chicago’s western suburbs, including Villa Park and Bartlett. He has raised $1.7 million in the last three months. […]

Lewis, who is challenging Democratic incumbent Tom Cullerton, D-Villa Park, is spending much of this money on sending mailers to voters and airing expensive TV ads.

“Has (the money) had an impact? Absolutely,” Lewis said. “But in my particular case, I think it’s just been able to keep us even with our opponent.”

Lewis claims all that money from Rauner is helping Republicans stay even with the Democrats’ fundraising. Over the last three months, Cullerton raised about $1.5 million from labor unions, attorneys — traditional Democratic funders — along with Democratic leaders.

Cullerton said it’s the Democrats who are trying to keep up with the Republicans. He won the Senate seat four years ago with a fraction of the cash he’s spent this year.

“With the amount of money the governor has put in, I don’t know if anybody can keep up with the kind of money that he’s got and the kind of money he’s moving around the state,” Cullerton said.

Madigan! Rauner!

Whatevs.

C’mon, they’re both doing fine on the money end.

If you back up another month, you’ll see Lewis has raised $2.1 million while Cullerton has pulled in about $1.77 million.

* And speaking of money, the Tribune has a much better piece today on spending than you’ll normally find in a mainstream media outlet. Click here to read it. And click here for some very handy charts that show money raised by each legislative candidate.

One quote from the story

Unions and trial lawyers largely are funding Madigan’s troops, while Rauner and wealthy allies are bankrolling the Republican efforts. One longtime Illinois campaign finance expert questions whether the influx of all that campaign cash is good for either side or for the state’s politics.

“If having someone who is, or appears to be, a wholly owned subsidiary of the speaker is bad for representative democracy and local control, then replacing them with someone who is, or appears to be, a wholly owned subsidiary of the governor — I don’t think that gets us any closer to democracy and local control,” said Kent Redfield, emeritus professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Springfield.

“If we were keeping score and asking if it is now a more balanced fight, that begs the real question of whether this is how we really ought to be electing people and making decisions and representing local legislative districts and communities. That’s the big picture part of it. It’s not healthy for the political system on either side,” he added.

Yeah, well, this is nothing compared to what will likely happen in 2018.

* And this is from the Crain’s morning roundup

Total spending has topped $2 million in 16 state legislative races this year, including a dozen that have gone above $3 million and six that have surpassed $4 million through Oct. 31, the Chicago Tribune reports.

Two years ago, just one Illinois Senate race topped $4 million while one House contest exceeded $2 million, a sign of how the current battle has intensified between Rauner and Democrats, especially House Speaker Michael Madigan.

  22 Comments      


Analysis: 498 “Madigan” radio mentions in October

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From an October 28th e-mail from Veritone, a company I’d never heard of until last week…

Hi Rich,

I saw your Madigan post and wanted to provide you some insight that you may find helpful.

We track local news talk radio within the state of Illinois. Within the past week “Madigan” was mentioned over 180 times. Here is a brief collection of advertisements from radio in the state of Illinois to include an interview with Jason Gonzales. Can I provide you any additional information that may be helpful for you?

Best regards,
Elisa Henry

The link she provided is here. It even has that new Jim Durkin radio ad paid for by Gov. Rauner’s Turnaround Illinois PAC - the independent expenditure which broke the contribution caps and allowed Durkin to collect unlimited contributions from Rauner and Ken Griffin.

Not every reference will be about Speaker Madigan, but it’s close enough.

* Here’s what Ms. Henry says the data covers…

Local news talk radio information that consists of

    What hosts are saying
    Interviews
    Constituent call-in conversations
    Advertisements

* This is a tiny bit of what Veritone does

Transcription Engines convert spoken audio recordings into readable text. They are built and trained to recognize different languages, dialects, and topics, even in the presence of background music or noise. Veritone utilizes a continuous machine-learning combination of several transcription engines to provide the best possible transcription of audio recordings. For those occasions where 100% accuracy is required, the request can be routed to human transcription professionals as well.

* Anyway, I asked Elisa how far back she could search for “Madigan” in Illinois and she sent me this report…

2015

    July - 108
    August - 31
    September - 19
    October - 160
    November - 75
    December - 149

2016

    January - 114
    Feb. - 96
    March - 105
    April - 24
    May - 159
    June 1 -30 - 225
    July - 371
    August - 121
    September - 34
    October - 498

Looks like he’s peaking.

  28 Comments      


*** UPDATED x2 - Postmaster says they “didn’t languish” *** Funny, not funny

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* If you click here you’ll see the latest TV ads for Dan Proft’s Liberty Principles PAC. There’s quite a lot of them. And almost all the recent ones (at least 30 of them) feature a woman speaking to the camera identified as “Kathleen, single mom.” The woman is actually the Illinois Opportunity Project’s Director of Communication Kathleen Murphy. That group was co-founded by Proft.

Anyway, Kathleen says in many of the ads “My home is in Illinois with [fill in the blank] as my state [Representative/Senator].” People have told me they’ve seen her on back-to-back ads for different candidates in different districts.

* So, somebody posing as “Pan Droft” on YouTube has posted a “tribute” video. It’s pretty funny

* Meanwhile

State and federal authorities are trying to find out why 1,500 absentee ballot applications were left in a Rock Island post office box for three weeks. Michelle O’Neill reports.

Rock Island County Clerk, Karen Kinney, says one of the first tips about a potential problem with absentee ballot applications came from her own mother. Voters also started to call her office asking, “Where’s my ballot?” Kinney called the sheriff, state’s attorney, and the Illinois Attorney General for help. She learned that a Dekalb woman from the Illinois Opportunity Project rented the Post Office box. The project is a Chicago-based non-profit, co-founded by Dan Proft who’s a radio host and former Republican candidate for governor. [Emphasis added]

Get it together, man.

*** UPDATE 1 ***  From the Dispatch & Argus

Co-founder Pat Hughes said his organization has done nothing wrong.

“We’re doing a vote-by-mail program,” Mr. Hughes said. “We’ve delivered thousands of applications in Rock Island County and throughout the state.”

While Ms. Kinney said the 1,500 absentee applications were piled up at the Rock Island Post Office on 11th Street before being delivered last Thursday and Friday by a man, Mr. Hughes refutes there was any voter suppression on behalf of his organization.

“They’re (applications) being picked up and delivered every single day,” Mr. Hughes said. “Any comments on voter suppression are false. If those statements are coming from the Rock Island County clerk or any other Democratic elected official, they are politically motivated.”

Mr. Hughes said the Illinois Attorney General’s Office has made many inquiries and demands over the last week of his organization related to Rock Island County and other counties, but he said it has done nothing wrong.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Pat Hughes’ story appears to be confirmed by the local postmaster

Hughes said the Illinois Opportunity Project mailed applications to voters on Oct. 11, and picked up the returned applications from the Rock Island Post Office on Oct. 26, after receiving inquiries from law enforcement. Hughes says the group didn’t break any laws by not grabbing the applications sooner. He also says that because the group distributed applications on the 11th and collected them on the 26th, it disproves the Democratic clerk’s claim that the applications languished for three weeks.

Mark Curley, postmaster for the Rock Island Post Office, corroborated Hughes’ timeline.

“There was no three weeks,” Curley said. “They didn’t languish.”

  50 Comments      


Trump chairman defends Rauner for not fully supporting Trump

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Ron Gidwitz, chairman of Trump-Pence Victory Illinois, writes in Crain’s

Two things are guaranteed out of every political campaign season:

• We all get tired of the rhetoric and non-stop campaign ads; and . . .

• Outlandish accusations will describe mole hills as mountains.

That second point may best be illustrated by Illinois Democrats’ piercing shrieks about Governor Bruce Rauner’s support for Donald Trump. Unless you’re wise enough to take an extended vacation off the planet during election season, you’ve undoubtedly seen the breathless accusations splashed across the airwaves that Governor Rauner deeply and profoundly supports Donald Trump—punctuated with one single damning phrase: “I will support the Republican Party’s nominee.”

Be still my heart! A half-hearted phrase muttered demurely and without mentioning He Whose Name Will Not Be Spoken suddenly has become video proof that Rauner will go to the ends of the Earth to get Trump elected so he can steal from the poor and give to the wealthy. Clearly, Rauner’s terse phraseology can be interpreted as a sign of complicity and access to the pots of gold the governor has in his possession!

So, lemme get this straight. The Illinois chairman of Donald Trump’s campaign has now stridently come to the defense of his party’s governor for not explicitly by name endorsing… Donald Trump.

OK.

Only in Illinois.

  51 Comments      


ILGOP dredges up old unpaid Mendoza bill

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Illinois GOP…

The Illinois Republican Party on Tuesday called on Chicago City Clerk and Illinois State Comptroller candidate Susana Mendoza to explain why she was sued by national electronics retailer Best Buy for unpaid personal bills after months of non-payment.

Cook County Sheriff’s Deputies served Mendoza with a summons to appear before a Cook County Judge to answer allegations that she opened a Best Buy credit account and ran up charges, but then failed to pay her bill. Mendoza later reached a settlement agreement with the retailer.

“It is concerning that anyone running for elected office would have to be sued to pay their bills,” said Nick Klitzing, Illinois Republican Party Executive Director. “But when that candidate is asking to serve as the state’s Chief Fiscal Officer, such an incident is disqualifying. If she can’t take care of her own finances, how can she be trusted to manage the state’s checkbook?”

Mendoza was personally served with papers requiring her to appear in Cook County Circuit Court on the morning of December 28, 2000. In the lawsuit, Best Buy maintained that Mendoza failed to make monthly payments as required in the credit agreement she signed. The retailer asked that Mendoza be required to pay a debt of $1,561.32.

“Susana Mendoza disqualified herself for this office by spending 10 years in Springfield voting at the behest of Mike Madigan for the very unbalanced budgets, tax increases and pension holidays that have landed our state in fiscal crisis, but this revelation is even more alarming,” Klitzing said. “Human services, small businesses, hospitals, schools and others depend on the Comptroller to swiftly process state payments – they simply can’t afford to take chances on someone that doesn’t even pay her own bills.”

Background docs are here.

* The Sun-Times has the react

Mendoza was 27 at the time of the purchase, and was elected to the Illinois General Assembly as a state representative in November 2000, at the age of 28. […]

Mendoza’s campaign dismissed the allegations, saying Mendoza bought a Best Buy laptop with an agreement that she’d have a year to make a payment, and no interest charges. After a year passed, she didn’t receive a bill. She was later sent a letter from a collection agency demanding the amount owed, plus a fee from the agency. Mendoza took Best Buy to court to prove that she did not receive a bill, and the case was settled with Mendoza paying what she owed for the laptop, her campaign said.

In a statement, Mendoza’s campaign manager Lauren Peters called the information release from the GOP a “desperate attempt to distract voters” from issues Munger wants to “run away from,” including her role in late payments for court-ordered disability payments during the budget impasse.

“The state of Illinois has never been worse off than it has been under the Rauner/Munger team,” Peters said. “And they will say or do anything to distract the voters of Illinois from the truth, including a decades old dispute, in order to avoid explaining how they managed to push the state further into debt while slashing social service.”

* Meanwhile, the Mendoza campaign has a new online video tying Munger to Donald Trump

Oof.

  47 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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  Comments Off      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your caption?…

  53 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Rauner mum on releasing tax returns

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Politico

Gov. Bruce Rauner, who once described himself as part of the “point-zero-one percent” of wealthy Americans, is holding back on releasing his personal income taxes this year — a departure from past practice for the wealthy Republican. The Rauner Family Foundation also has not filed its papers this year.

Since Oct. 20, Rauner’s office did not respond to questions about why the governor hadn’t released his 2015 taxes and whether he planned to do so. Informed today that POLITICO was poised to publish a story, the governor’s office released this statement.

“Governor Rauner will release his tax returns, as he has done in the past, when additional filings are completed, including the filings for the Rauner Family Foundation,” said the text-message statement from spokeswoman Catherine Kelly. […]

“We’ve not seen those returns,” Illinois Democratic Party spokesman Steve Brown told POLITICO Illinois. “It certainly is another example of making him look more Trump-like. A very curious development.” […]

“Is it about not wanting to be transparent or not wanting to draw contrasts between yourself and the presidential nominee?” said Kent Redfield, professor emeritus at University of Illinois at Springfield. “Those are the two most reasonable explanations: ‘I don’t have to do it’ and ‘it’s not going to hurt me.’ Or we’re kind of slow-walking it because we don’t want to draw contracts between his behavior and Trump’s.”

He released his returns last year in mid-October. The grapevine has it that the new returns will show a large increase in income.

Your thoughts on this?

*** UPDATE ***  Cute

WTAX has asked the offices of the Speaker of the House and President of the Senate what plans there are to release those legislative leaders’ 2015 returns.

An e-mail from Steve Brown, spokesman for House Speaker Mike Madigan (D-Chicago), says, As soon as law changes or Speaker makes same same decisions as governor’s.

Why he decided to jump into the fray considering his boss has never released his own tax returns is puzzling, to say the least.

  69 Comments      


Poll: Duckworth leads by 8

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We have a new Loras College poll

Tammy Duckworth 42 percent
Mark Kirk 34 percent

Unsure 18 percent
Other candidates 6 percent

The poll was taken before most news reports emerged about Kirk’s controversial debate comments regarding Duckworth’s heritage.

* More

Duckworth has a commanding edge over Kirk within the City of Chicago (62 percent to 17 percent), while the two draw even in the Chicago suburbs 38 percent each, and Kirk holds a slim lead in the rest of the state 38 percent to 36 percent.

Turning to the question of favorability ratings for the U.S. Senate, Tammy Duckworth enjoys a +13 net favorability, while Senator Kirk has a +1 favorability.

Other noteworthy results from the poll

    54 percent of likely voters in Illinois approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance, while 41 percent disapprove.

    53 percent of Illinois likely voters see the country headed in the wrong direction, while 76 percent say the state of Illinois is headed in the wrong direction. Only 14 percent of those polled indicated that the state was headed on the right track.

Kirk remains a relatively unknown quantity even after almost 6 years in the Senate. According to the toplines, Kirk’s total favorables (32 percent) and his total unfavorables (28 percent) add up to just 60 percent who can rate him. That total is 70 percent for Duckworth (41-29).

* Presidential

Hillary Clinton 45 percent
Donald Trump 34 percent
Gary Johnson 6 percent
Jill Stein 2 percent

Unsure 13 percent

So, Trump and Kirk are polling even? Whew.

Keep in mind, though, the poll doesn’t take into account the aftermath of last week’s e-mail weirdness.

* Methodology

The Loras College Poll surveyed 600 likely voters in Illinois. The survey was conducted Oct. 26-27. Margin of error for full sample is +/- 4 percent. Results calculated at a 95 percent confidence interval.

45 percent of the respondents were contacted via their mobile phones.

  35 Comments      


Our sorry state

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Pew Charitable Trusts

Tax revenue has recovered slowly and unevenly after falling in every state during the Great Recession. By the first quarter of 2016, tax collections had bounced back in 31 states after accounting for inflation. But amid inconsistent growth, receipts had slumped in 17 states at the start of the year

* All 50 states compared to Illinois

You can click here and compare us to individual states if you want.

  28 Comments      


State senator announces Obama endorsement

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Bertino-Tarrant wasn’t expecting to have such a spirited reelection bid, but she’s most definitely got a barn-burner on her hands. So, this press release will help, but there are two odd things about it…

Barack Obama today announced his endorsement of Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant’s campaign for State Senate, 49th District.

“I am very honored to receive the endorsement of Obama,” said Bertino-Tarrant, a first-term legislator from Shorewood. “I am proud to have the support of our president who is working tirelessly to invest more in our schools, create better paying-jobs, and reform the status quo.”

Bertino-Tarrant is now the first candidate for state Senate to receive the Obama’s endorsement in Illinois. Her campaign is now endorsed by organizations that represent teachers, police-officers, fire-fighters, small business owners, retirees, responsible gun-owners and working families.

“What drives me every day is the desire to provide a better future for our District,” said Bertino-Tarrant. “As a fourth-generation Will County resident and life-long educator, I am running to give the 49th District a voice they can count on to champion common sense legislation and promote bipartisan reform in Springfield.”

Until this year, Obama has not endorsed in state legislature races. Prior to serving in the White House and U.S. Senate, Obama served in the Illinois Senate representing Chicago’s Hyde-Park neighborhood.

1) No actual statement from the President? What’s up with that?

2) I was also told there will be no accompanying TV ad, which is odd, right?

* Meanwhile, speaking of national politics, this is from a reader…

Hi Rich,

Thought I would pass this along to you. I took this outside an early voting site in Park Ridge this morning.

* The pic…

Yeah, somehow I don’t think Michael paid for that truck.

…Adding… From a GOP friend…

That McAuliffe ad truck is owned by a hardcore GOP guy named Brian Younker. Maybe friendly fire?

  39 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** The direct link between poverty levels and test scores

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Daily Herald updated its Poverty-Achievement Index with new data from the Illinois State Board of Education

Our analysis divides all elementary schools in the state into 10 tiers based on the percentage of low-income students a school serves. The zero to 9.9 percent tier includes schools serving the fewest low-income students, while those in the 90 percent to 100 percent range covers schools with the highest percentage of low-income students.

We then calculate the average percent met/exceeds for each tier. As in past years, our analysis shows how deeply stratified Illinois schools are by income, with no income tier performing better than any other tier with fewer low-income students.

Emphasis added.

* The chart


* Meanwhile, from WBEZ

The message parents should take from Monday’s newly released state report card data is that despite Illinois’ financial difficulties, school performance is steady — for the most part, according to state officials.

John Barker, the state’s new chief of performance, pointed out that overall graduation rates, attendance rates and ACT scores are either the same or up a little compared with last year.

Two areas of concern: Chronic truancy rates, which look at students who missed 5 percent or more days without a valid excuse, increased from 8.7 percent to 9.8 percent. Also, the number of students in preschool went down by more than 12,000 children.

Preschool education is this governor’s specialty. He knows a lot about it, including the theories about how and why it works. So, it’s weird that the number of preschool kids dropped.

* More from the ISBE…

Students enrolled in Pre-K-12 education – more than two million students (2,041,779) at the beginning of 2015-16, 12,777 fewer than the previous year; percentage of Hispanic students increased slightly (25.1% to 25.5%), while percentage declined slightly for White (49.3% to 48.8%) and African-American (17.5% to 17.3%) students

*** UPDATE ***  It looks like WBEZ and I both misread the ISBE numbers. Those are for all students, not just Pre-K.

  35 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Marwig responds *** McAuliffe’s oops on “W” mailer, Marwig whacked by Rosemont

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* McAuliffe gets some free publicity

Chicago’s only Illinois House Republican is taking advantage of a historic World Series run — printing out a “W” poster in campaign mail ads that when placed on a window show the grinning faces of Michael McAuliffe and his family decked out in Cubs gear.

The Cubs last year filed applications with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office to expand its trademark of the “W” sign — which flies above Wrigley Field after victories and is a staple at Cubs fans’ homes.

McAuliffe’s campaign said the political mailer isn’t selling a product, and isn’t causing confusion in the marketplace, which would mean a trademark infringement. […]

Also of note, a misspelling of legendary broadcaster Harry Caray’s name: “History is in the making, and so for Ron Santo, Ernie Banks, Jack Brickhouse, Harry Carey, and all the other Cub players and announcers who never got to drink from the sweet cup of victory . . . let’s go Cubs!”

* Meanwhile, from a press release…

The Village of Rosemont today charged the political campaign of Merry Marwig with releasing deliberately false and misleading information that infringes on the village’s trademarked “Rose” and intentionally and deceptively implies that a political advertisement is from Mayor Brad Stephens. In a letter to Marwig, Rosemont attorneys called for her campaign to cease and desist the use of the village’s iconic trademarked “Rose” and demanded that Marwig renounce a political mailer sent to village residents which falsely and deceptively implies that Mayor Brad Stephens is endorsing Marwig for political office.

Mayor Stephens said Marwig’s campaign had devolved from political chicanery to outright illegality by using Rosemont’s trademark on a political letter that bears Rosemont’s seal and then signing it with the initial “B’, deceptively implying that Mayor Stephens had authored it. In the handwritten note, Marwig is endorsed for state representative. While trademarks are often borrowed for clever non-harmful reasons, Marwig’s campaign has engaged in outright deception.

“This is political dirty trickery at its worst and I am sickened that Merry Marwig, a candidate for state representative would condone it,” Mayor Stephens said. “We are today demanding that Marwig repudiate this false and deceptive ad and that she identify all persons involved in its production or dissemination so appropriate legal action can be taken.”

Rosemont said it would take whatever actions were lawful and appropriate to protect its rights including filing a complaint with the Illinois State Board of Elections. The Village also indicated it would ask the U.S. Attorney and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service to investigate the matter for possible mail fraud and other illegalities.

The flier is here.

I doubt they have a federal case, but messing with Rosemont is never advisable.

*** UPDATE ***  From Merry Marwig…

“I have spoken with and received great support from Rosemont residents, but I don’t know who sent this letter.

“Earlier this year, Michael McAuliffe admitted to calling me a ‘girl’ when talking about me to voters. He looks down on women, has a shameful record on women’s issues and has now convinced Mayor Bradley Stephens to join him in his crusade to keep women from holding elected office.

“Voters are outraged. They’re outraged by Michael McAuliffe’s shameful record on women’s issues, and they’re outraged that Mayor Stephens is in line to receive a $260,000 taxpayer-funded salary when most other mayors in the suburbs receive a fraction of that obscene amount, while his family members are appointed to six-figure patronage jobs.”

Ouch.

  31 Comments      


Closing ads start to air

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the NRCC…

The National Republican Congressional Committee is on the airwaves today with a new ad outlining the important differences between predictable partisan Brad Schneider and Bob Dold, one of the most independent members of Congress. Whether it is his support for the dangerous deal with Iran or billions in higher taxes, Brad Schneider has proven he can’t be trusted to do what is right for Illinois. Luckily, Bob Dold is one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, opposes the Iran Deal, and has consistently looked out for hardworking taxpayers.

* Ad

* Script…

Two candidates. Important differences. Brad Schneider supports the dangerous deal with Iran. Bob Dold opposes it.

Dold fights for Illinois taxpayers. Schneider has supported billions in higher taxes.

Dold is an independent leader – one of the most bipartisan members of Congress. Schneider voted the party line nearly 90%.

Bob Dold – the proven independent choice for Illinois.

* Press release…

Tammy Duckworth’s campaign for U.S. Senate today released its closing argument ad, entitled “Simple.” The 30-second, direct-to-camera positive spot, which will run in every Illinois market, highlights the core of Duckworth’s mission as a public servant: to help Illinois working families achieve economic security and opportunity. Duckworth concludes the ad by asking Illinoisans for their vote.

Over the last week, Duckworth has picked up key endorsements from newspapers around the state, including the State Journal-Register, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Quad-City Times, the Southern Illinoisan, the Chicago Defender, and the Daily Illini, adding to endorsements from the Chicago Sun-Times, Chicago Tribune, and Rockford Register-Star. These endorsements will be featured in regional variations of this ad.

“This ad is the essence of why Tammy is running for Senate and the connection she has made with Illinois voters — and speaks for itself,” Tammy for Illinois campaign manager Kaitlin Fahey said. “We’re thrilled that our campaign has the resources to run this spot statewide, and we’re gratified to have secured so many key endorsements just as Illinoisans are starting to go to the polls. With one week to go, our grassroots campaign will be working around the clock to to fight for every vote across every part of this state.”

* The ad

* Script…

Tammy Duckworth: I know what it’s like to fight for your life behind enemy lines and I know what it’s like to not be left behind. If you elect me to the Senate I’ll be guided by the simple notion that if you don’t give up on yourself, America won’t give up on you. I will fight for every kid trying to pay for college, for every small business trying to grow, and for every family working hard just trying to catch a break. I’m Tammy Duckworth, I approve this message and I’m asking for your vote. Thank You.

* And, finally…

A new video, available at fairgame.fairelectionsil.org, tells the story of a game that feels all too familiar: It’s election season in Illinois, once again, and Governor Bruce Rauner and his billionaire cronies play a game of basketball against Democracy (youth activist Asean Johnson). As the announcer highlights how the Billionaires United have used their money to block popular reform efforts, it seems that our hero, Democracy, can’t buy a shot. By the end of the game, the Billionaires won’t even let Democracy touch the ball. It is clear that the Billionaires are playing by a different set of rules.

That’s the message in the first salvo of a social media campaign that was launched today by the Fair Elections Illinois coalition in response to the rising influence of money in Chicago politics and Illinois State House and Senate campaigns. As the reform groups’ website notes, this is a game that is being played by elected officials on both sides of the aisle, with politicians like Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuel and Governor Rauner reaping huge benefits.

The Fair Elections Illinois video helps to educate the public on exactly how their elected officials and big donors use loopholes in the campaign finance system to dramatically alter current policies and to push alternative candidates out of contention. “We are living in unprecedented times,” said Amanda Weaver, Executive Director of Reclaim Chicago. “Billionaires and well-funded special interest groups have never been as powerful as they are today, and we believe that the public deserves to know how a handful of individual donors are reshaping the political landscape in this state.”

This ad campaign comes at a time when huge amounts of money are being moved around by big donors. In just the last couple of weeks, Governor Rauner and his friend, hedge fund CEO Ken Griffin, transferred $5 million to Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin’s campaign. Then Durkin turned around and transferred over $3 million to the House Republican Organization.

Sadly, the story is no different here in Chicago. In February 2015, 79% of Chicago voters supported a ballot question to limit the influence of special interest money by instituting a public campaign financing system.

The ad is here.

  13 Comments      


Another big difference between NYC and Chicago

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Keep in mind while reading this that Chicago has issued just 90 food truck licenses and designated only 40 food truck stands. It has also legalized some food carts, but those numbers are limited as well

New York, though, is still the nation’s food-truck and food-cart capital, with 3,100 legally licensed vendors selling everything from classic hot dogs to small-batch popcorn on almost every corner of the city’s densest areas. (Many more vendors operate illegally.)

And while many cities confine their food trucks and carts to certain main thoroughfares and parks at certain times, New York, with a few exceptions, lets them operate wherever their proprietors like.

Now, New York City Council wants to double the number of food-truck and -cart permits it awards. The permits are good for both carts, which operate on sidewalks and trucks, which operate on streets, whichever the vendor prefers.

And I don’t mean to just pick on Chicago. We could use lots more food trucks and carts everywhere here. It allows people to more easily break into the food business and allows existing restaurants to cheaply test new products.

By all means, responsibly and reasonably regulate their safety and quality, but stop focusing so darned much on quantity.

  16 Comments      


You can’t vote ‘em if you don’t submit their ballot requests

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Last week, 1,500 absentee ballot requests were found in a Rock Island post office box and they had apparently been sitting there for weeks. Local officials initially thought the PO box was owned by the Democrats, but now Rock Island County Clerk Karen Kinney says it’s owned by the Illinois Opportunity Project, co-founded by Dan Proft and Pat Hughes

Ms. Kinney said that, after investigators looked into the postal box, a man brought the ballot applications to her office Thursday and Friday but gave few details on why submitting the applications took weeks. All those applications, she said, will be mailed ballots.

Ms. Kinney has asked Rock Island County State’s Attorney John McGehee, Sheriff Gerry Bustos and the Illinois Attorney General’s office to look into the matter. […]

Pat Hughes, co-founder of the Illinois Opportunity Project, confirmed his group rents a Rock Island postal box for absentee ballot applications. But he said he was unsure if it was the same box, and he will determine if it was. […]

“In Rock Island County, we sent out thousands of applications, and received a little over 1,500 applications in that P.O. box,” he said. “Every single one has been delivered to the clerk.”

It’s getting awful late to send those in.

Oops.

  10 Comments      


Illinois is first in voter accessibility policies, below average in participation

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From WalletHub…

Hi Rich,

With less than a week until Election Day and nearly four in 10 voters in states with no voter-ID requirements falsely believing they must present identification in order to vote, the personal-finance website WalletHub conducted an in-depth analysis of 2016’s Most & Least Politically Engaged States.

In order to determine where Americans are most involved in politics, WalletHub’s analysts compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across seven key indicators of political engagement. They range from “percentage of registered voters in the 2012 presidential election” to “total political contributions per adult population.”

Political Engagement in Illinois (1=Most; 25=Avg.)

    28th – % of Registered Voters in 2012 Presidential Election
    34th – % of Electorate Who Voted in 2014 Midterm Elections
    34th – % of Electorate Who Voted in 2012 Presidential Election
    23rd – Change in % of Electorate Who Actually Voted in 2012 Elections vs. 2008 Elections
    11th – Total Political Contributions per Adult Population
    9th – Civic Education Engagement
    1st – Voter Accessibility Policies

For the full report, please visit:
https://wallethub.com/edu/most-least-politically-engaged-states/7782/

Please let me know if you have any questions or if you would like to schedule a phone, Skype or in-studio interview with one of our experts. Full data sets for specific states and the District are also available upon request.

Best,
Diana Popa
Communications Manager, WalletHub

Methodology is here. According to Popa, voter accessibility is defined by laws governing things like early voting, no-excuse absentee voting, online voter registration and same-day registration.

In addition, Illinois ranked 37th for political engagement by voter aged 18-24, and 26th for political engagement by the elderly.

And we may rank high in average contributions per adult because of a few special folks.

  4 Comments      


Rate the other Biss PAC ad

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We looked at one of Sen. Daniel Biss’ new anti-Rauner super PAC ads yesterday. Here’s the other ad, which, unlike yesterday’s spot, doesn’t mention Donald Trump. Because of that, I assumed it was only meant for Downstate voters, but a pal told me he saw it on Chicago TV this morning

Lots of numbers in that ad.

Lots.

* Related…

* Illinois Dems put another $3 million into anti-Trump/Rauner push

  55 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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* Roundup: Pentagon plans military deployment in Chicago after Trump threat
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
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* Numbers dump! Raja poll claims 20-point lead
* President says Chicago is 'probably next' after DC (Updated x4)
* Maybe it's time the state did something about this problem
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