* News Gazette editorial…
In a year’s time, many people die — about 33,000 in 2016-17. But births more than offset that; Illinois gained nearly 154,000 new little citizens in that same time frame. Plus, the Land of Lincoln welcomed more new residents internationally than it lost — a net increase of 33,700.
The reason Illinois’ population is falling — while that of most states’, including all neighboring ones, are increasing: More people are leaving than arriving. The state’s “net domestic migration” was a minus-114,779. That’s just in a year’s time.
In the seven years since the last census in 2010, Illinois has seen a net loss to other states of nearly 643,000 people. That’s roughly the combined populations of Champaign, McLean, Macon, Vermilion, Iroquois, Douglas, Piatt and Ford counties.
Why is Illinois losing people while other states are gaining?
* OK, so while I was Googling stuff about the governor’s new budget director Hans Zigmund, I came across a study from the past October that Zigmund co-authored entitled “Dynamic Fiscal Analysis: Increasing Minimum Wage in Illinois.” From the report…
Negative effect on employment
Given that increase in wage is not due to increase in productivity, workforce will be reduced to compensate for increase in labor cost.
Negative effect on Gross Domestic Product
Higher labor cost & higher cost of goods and services have a detrimental effect on competitiveness. This leads to decrease in exports and business investment.
Negative effect on prices
Raising labor cost will be translated into higher prices.
Positive effect on Personal (and disposable) income
Raising minimum wage will increase earnings – personal income- of eligible workers (those that remain employed)
Negative effect on Real personal disposable income
Given the increase in prices, there is a negative effect on real personal income.
Positive effect on population growth.
Increased net economic migrants, probably explained by an improved consumption access index in IL and by improved relative real compensation rate in the state.
That last highlighted point is kinda interesting. The study goes on to suggest that some folks would make enough money to get off public assistance programs, lowering state costs.
* And what about state revenues?…
The positive effect on personal consumption -due to increased personal income- leads to an increase in Sales Tax revenue.
The positive effect on total wages more than compensates for the loss in employment. The result is an increase in Individual Income Tax revenue.
* Downtown growth leads Chicago to highest job peak in decades