Not sure what happened…
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* All of a sudden, comments closed down. I can’t open them up. Working on it. Sorry.
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* I’ll be adding to these categories in a bit as some links don’t appear to be live yet. Let’s start with election results…
* Illinois Election Data
* NBC 5
* Sun-Times
* CBS2
* Tribune
* Daily Herald
* Live TV…
* WGN
* ABC7
* BlueRoomStream.com
* I’m going to do something different tonight and put election results into our ScribbleLive news feed so you won’t have have several different posts open all at once. But pay attention, because things will move by pretty darned fast. I’ll put all winners into a separate post and update that as we go along. Have fun, campers…
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3-7 pm Precinct Reports
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The spokesman for the Chicago Board of Elections said today that data he has seen show that the city’s turnout will not match Chicago’s 2010 number of 53 percent. However, he cautioned that this was preliminary data which could be too low because of some issues feeding some ballot machines.
Greg Hinz has more…
But, in calling around a bit, it looks like much of the record early voter turnout in Chicago and Cook County may have reduced the number of people who show up at the polls today, rather than representing a net increase in total voting.
Ergo, Cook County Clerk David Orr tells me that his best “guess” — and he used that word — is that turnout will be in the 51 percent to 52 percent range, or “about average.” Meanwhile, figures at the Chicago Board of Elections so far raise doubts whether the city will exceed its 2010 total of 706,000 votes cast. And downstate, where the Rauner campaign never fully caught on, turnout has been whacked some by heavy rain showers much of the day.
That means Mr. Rauner really, really will need to run up figures in Chicago’s five suburban collar counties: Lake, DuPage, Will, McHenry and Kane. And Mr. Quinn really will need to keep Mr. Rauner below the 20 percent figure in the city that a lot of observers have been emphasizing.
As usual, there are some problems, with a handful of precincts in the city and Cook County to be kept open late. The worst seems to be in the city, where someone called some election judges, apparently all of them Republicans, and gave them bad instructions. That in turn led to a high number of judicial no-shows this time, though at least one precinct, in the 49th Ward, didn’t open because the doors were locked. Fire department officials pried the doors open.
* Keep those reports from your own precincts and polling places coming, folks!
…Adding… A Lake County judge has ordered county same-day registration/voting must stay open until 9 o’clock tonight. Click here to read the order.
…Adding More… The I-Team has more on those mysterious robocalls which have caused so many Chicago election judges to not show up for work today…
“This one is a new dirty trick,” Allen said of the calls.
The ABC7 I-Team learned Tuesday that some Chicago election judges were told in the false calls to report to a Cook County Republican Office on the Southwest Side for additional “training.” When the I-Team arrived there, a man who said he is the landlord told him the GOP staff had just packed up and left. However, a Republican operative who worked there said he made personal calls to judges, too.
“Asked them, have they had their training yet? I mean, you know, the training for the judge. And then ask them had they voted early and if not tell them that they have until Saturday, this past Saturday, to vote early,” the man said.
Robocalls also directed election judges to an address on 79 th Street near another GOP office, where the deputy chairman of the Cook County Republican Party said they had a training session on Sunday.
“Both parties have meetings with their election judges to work the polls, work the precincts,” Darnell Macklin, vice chairman of the Cook County Republican Party, said.
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TrackBill – An Introduction
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014 - Posted by Advertising Department
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Something to do on a slow day
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a pal…
Hey, Rich. Have you seen a website called empowermebruce.com?
A friend got a call telling her she could win $100 for the educational institution of her choice by visiting the site and answering six questions. The questions turn out to be about a person’s workplace style — collaborative, detail-oriented, etc.
The call and site briefly mention Rainer but don’t do a hard sell. Weirdest thing I’ve ever seen. I can’t figure out what it’s supposed to accomplish.
* Election day is a pretty slow news day until after the polls close, so, OK, let’s check it out. From the EmpowerMeBruce site…
Our goal is simple: To help YOU empower YOURSELF so you will be better able to EMPOWER OTHERS.
With just six clicks, your name, and an email address, EmpowerME sends you a report that shows your primary and secondary Personal Style Types. Then it dives into how you can better communicate and influence others like you, but also those who differ from you so you can be more effective in your work, play, and family life settings.
And all those who complete the EmpowerME site are entered into a drawing where winners receive a $100 check they can donate to the Illinois school, college, or university they choose. Imagine how good it will feel supporting this worthy cause. Bruce Rauner knows this feeling. He has been supporting education for Illinois youth for many years.
Be sure to make your vote count for Bruce today.
* Click on the “red star” and you get this page…
Welcome to EmpowerME
EmpowerME is a WorkSTYLE PROfiler that delivers a three dimensional report of your personality, work style, and behavior. It offers coaching on how to better communicate and influence the people in your work, leisure, and home lives.
Provided in support of Bruce Rauner for Governor, this experience empowers you to better empower others– the path that let Bruce to his personal and business success, and will lead Illinois to a successful future once Bruce is elected. Completing the WorkSTYLE PROfiler qualifies you to enter the Empowering Education drawing where 10 winners receive $100 they can contribute to the Illinois educational institution of their choice.
Be sure to make your vote count on November 4. Vote Rauner for Governor.
* Then you enter your first and last name and are taken to another page…
Welcome to the Personal WorkSTYLE Profiler
For the next six questions, pick the ONE button that BEST FITS how your typical work behaviors compare to the descriptions in the left and right definition boxes. For example, if you think the left side box exactly fits your behavior pattern at work, click the button labeled ‘Exactly like above’. If you think your behavior is more like the description in the right to the right, but not all the time or exactly as described, then pick the button that best fits. If your work behaviors are an even mix of both definitions, then pick the ‘Balanced’ button.
* The options are…
Maintain a consistently controlled and calm exterior even when being challenged, ignored, insulted, or interrupted.
And…
Become highly animated when challenged or ignored | Respond directly and aggressively when someone disagrees or argues with you | Use dramatic physical gestures to emphasize points and make sure people pay attention
* They ask you more of these personality questions and then when you finish…
Thank you for taking the EmpowerME Assessment. A copy of your WorkSTYLE report will be sent to the email you entered at the beginning of the assessment.
And please remember to make your vote count for Bruce today so Bruce can EMPOWER US ALL as the next Governor of the State of Illinois.
* I checked with the Rauner campaign and they had never heard of it. “Not us.”
Hmm. Well, when you take the test, you’re on a domain owned by PeopleAssessments.com. From the company’s site…
PeopleAssessments provides assessment solutions for companies that want to hire better people, faster, for less total cost.
We balance a commitment to science-based best practices with a passion for leveraging the power of the web. Our goal– drive wasted labor effort from talent decision processes so you can lower costs while raising the bar on talent quality and attract more of the top talent to your brand.
* I called the company and the phone was answered by Tom Janz, the firm’s chief scientist.
Dr. Janz said the study was paid for by “a friend of the candidate” who thought this might be helpful. But they got such a late start that they weren’t able to roll it out until this afternoon.
Janz said the study is similar to a “Wilson” type of self-completed questionnaire.
* But what was the point? Janz said the original goal was to goal understand individual voter personality types and then match candidate messages to them based on their types.
So, to simplify it, if a person was a bold, salesman kind of person, the message would be short bullet points for why Rauner was the best candidate. If it was a more academic respondent, he or she would be sent detailed reasons. Etc.
It’s about “tooling the process of the message,” Janz said. But, unfortunately, the project came to him too late to matter much.
Thoughts?
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* Stephen Chapman…
One reason this year’s campaigns were so nasty and personal, particularly here in Illinois, is that on many issues, the differences among the candidates are not enormous. It brings to mind the old adage that the reason academic politics are so vicious is that the stakes are so small.
The Illinois governor’s race is a good example. Bruce Rauner has come out for abortion rights, a higher minimum wage and the preservation of gay marriage despite being a Republican. Pat Quinn has cut state government employment, signed a pension reform law and imposed a quarantine on health care workers who have treated Ebola patients, even though he’s a Democrat.
Each has to attack the other guy on something, and often it’s been something peripheral to the business of governing. Both have tried to win more on style than on substance.
Partly, yes, but Quinn has bashed Rauner on issues like the minimum wage where Rauner has bounced all over the place. Rauner has directly attacked Quinn over the state of the economy and the budget.
But on the other hand, Chapman makes a good point. Both men want a big capital plan, both men want to increase spending on things like schools and universities. Both men agree that the tax hike cannot be allowed to expire all at once.
The big difference is how they each intend to arrive at those destinations. Quinn’s plan is to keep the income tax right where it is. Rauner’s plan is quite a bit fuzzier, to say the least.
There are also some obvious style differences between the two men which I don’t really need to go into here at length because they are so obvious. So, it’s logical that this would be part of the campaign.
* In other stuff, the governor has repeatedly touted all the jobs created at Chicago’s Ford factory, but some workers got a pink slip in a highly unusual way last week…
Nearly 100 workers at Ford’s Chicago Assembly Plant got a robocall on Halloween telling them their services were no longer needed and they were terminated.
It wasn’t a trick or a morbid prank.
Dozens of workers missed the call or didn’t believe it, so they showed up to work Saturday anyway, according to an autoworker who wished to remain anonymous. They found their ID badges had been disabled and were told by security they had been fired.
Yikes.
*** UPDATE *** From Ford Motor Co…
“As part of our business process, we have temporarily adjusted our workforce numbers at Chicago Assembly Plant by approximately 90 team members. Our goal, as always, is to return the workers back to their positions as soon as possible based on the needs of our business.”
Is it part of Ford’s normal business practice to notify employees of layoffs through Robo call? No. We do not typically use Robo call to notify employees of layoffs. The plant elected to use Robo call in this situation because it is temporary in nature and we intend to recall all employees as soon as possible.
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[The following is a paid advertisement.]
“Chicago-based Exelon’s profit rose 26 percent in the third quarter…The country’s largest owner of nuclear power plants, Exelon reported net income of $993 million…”[Chicago Tribune, October 29, 2014 – emphasis added]
Just this past week, a Crain’s analysis revealed that contrary to their claims, Exelon may not be in dire straits after all:
“The analysis…raises questions about whether the state effectively will be asked to compel ratepayers to subsidize a profitable enterprise.” [Crain’s, October 27, 2014 – emphasis added]
Illinois’ businesses and citizens are still struggling. The last thing we need is a massive rate increase to bail out Exelon nuclear plants built during the Nixon administration and already paid for several times by ratepayers.
Even ComEd, Exelon’s own sister company, doesn’t agree with subsidized generation at above-market prices:
“ComEd has long believed that competitive markets will work in the best interests of our customers…so we are concerned about the negative impact on our customers from a requirement that would force utilities to buy subsidized generation at above-market prices.” [Crain’s Chicago Business, November 20, 2013]
Just Say No To Exelon’s $580 Million Rate Hike!!
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*** UPDATED x1 *** More shenanigans
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* CBS 2…
City election officials had to send out scores of standby election judges on Tuesday, after a shortage of workers at polling places throughout Chicago.
Chicago Board of Election Commissioners Chairman Langdon Neal said at least one precinct in all 50 wards had a problem with election judges not showing up, and the city had to enlist the help of 250 standby judges.
Neal said the problem should not affect elections. City election officials were contacting voters they believe were not able to cast ballots Tuesday morning due to polling places opening late, and asking if they could come back to cast a ballot later Tuesday.
* Background on the robocalls…
A barrage of automated phone calls offering false instructions to scores of election judges was “a serious attempt to disrupt” Chicago voting operations in the run-up to Tuesday’s vote, elections officials said.
Between Friday and Monday an unknown number of judges — the paid partisan employees tasked with operating polling stations — received the misleading robo-calls, according to the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners.
“Given the level of response that we received, we suspect it was a large number of people — we don’t know how large,” Jim Allen, board spokesman said Monday.
Some of the judges received calls informing them that they needed an additional training session before they could work a polling station, board chairman Langdon Neal said. Only one three-hour session is required.
* But there was also a second set of calls…
the second call told judges they serve for one political party and they must vote the same party.
As I told subscribers today, the people receiving those calls were Republicans, making it unlikely that the Democrats were behind it. But one never knows, I suppose.
* In other news, remember the racist mailer sent into Rep. Fred Crespo’s district? The Democrats denied it came from them and did robocalls over the weekend to make sure Crespo didn’t get blamed. The Daily Herald followed up…
Hanover Park Village President Rodney Craig backed Crespo’s contentions Sunday. He said he visited [Republican candidate Ramiro Juarez] at his office Saturday and confronted him about the mailer. Juarez, he said, blamed the flier on a volunteer working for his campaign.
“He said, ‘It’s (a campaign volunteer), he’s out of control,’” Craig said.
State election record show Craig made donations totaling $700 to Crespo’s campaign in 2010 and 2011, but he said he has no role in this year’s campaign.
Juarez denied making that statement to Craig and blamed the accusation on bad blood between the Hanover Park mayor and the volunteer.
* Meanwhile…
In at least three locations — in the 1st, 2nd and 42nd wards — there were reports of counting machines not accepting the ballots. That forced some voters to cast traditional paper ballots.
In the 1st Ward’s 25th precinct, the automated ballots were put aside to be counted later. The counting machine was reading “jammed,” said Larry Ligas, a poll observer for the campaign of GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner. No ballots were damaged by the malfunctioning machine, Ligas said.
“The judges were incompetent,” Ligas said.
*** UPDATE *** From the DCCC…
* But this is what I put on the ScribbleLive feed…
I just checked with the East St. Louis Election Commission. There was an issue this morning about GOP poll watchers demanding to verify voter signatures. This is the first time that outside poll watchers have worked ESL, the director said, so there was confusion. The director has visited the three precincts where this was an issue, calmed everybody down, briefed everyone about the law, and notified the state’s attorney. I’m told by others that the problems have been solved, and the director agreed.
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9:30-Noon precinct reports
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* More fresh thread. Please tell us where your precinct is. Give us the weather, the turnout, the “feel” of the place, as well as the number and effectiveness of the precinct workers. Thanks!
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Predictions and punditry abound
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Larry Saboto moved the governor’s race from pure tossup to slight advantage to Gov. Quinn. It’s getting some play on Twitter, but I dunno. It’s just one more bloviating pundit from a far-away island, as far as I’m concerned…
We can’t quite believe it, but Gov. Pat Quinn (D) may actually survive. Despite ugly approval ratings, Quinn is running essentially even with businessman Bruce Rauner (R). Illinois is a blue state, and in what is pretty much a coin-flip, we’re taking Quinn. LEANS DEMOCRATIC
* The national angle from McClatchy…
Will voters throw incumbent governors out? There’s a long list of vulnerable Republicans, notably Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, Michigan’s Rick Snyder and Kansas’ Sam Brownback, as well as Democrats Pat Quinn of Illinois and John Hickenlooper of Colorado. All are in jeopardy; if all or most fall, the story line becomes a voter rejection of incumbents, regardless of party.
* Zorn…
A decisive number of voters are ready for a change at the top in Springfield, even if they’re not at all sure what that change would entail. They want to give someone else a chance to try to ride herd over the Democratic legislature, even though they’re unclear on exactly who that someone else is.
On the other hand (and who really knows?) a majority could vote vote against Quinn and the governor might still be reelected. Why? That Libertarian Grimm.
* Bernie…
But having Libertarian candidate Chadd Grimm on the ballot, I believe, along with most observers, will take more from Rauner.
This leads me to my usual role the weekend before an election of predicting outcomes of major races. My predictions are not endorsements, and the fact that I’ve complained about Rauner’s campaign style doesn’t stray from some past things I’ve written. In my November 2006 predictions, I said that Rod Blagojevich would win a second term despite my determination, in that column, that he had “placed himself behind the bubble of officialdom.” He beat Republican Judy Baar-Topinka and won that ill-fated term.
This time, I think factors such as Rauner’s 16-month-old talk about unions will help drive Democratic turnout and — as weird as it seems — give Quinn another four years. We’ll see.
On the other hand, national headwinds appear pretty darned strong against the Democrats and Rauner has run an infinitely better campaign than Bill Brady did four years ago.
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8:30-9:30 precinct reports
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Let’s start a fresh thread. Please make sure you say where your precinct is. Give us the weather, the turnout, the “feel” of the place, as well as the number and effectiveness of the precinct workers. Thanks!
…8:59 am… Springfield weather…
Sangamon County Clerk Joe Aiello said he’s sticking with his projection of a 56 percent voter turnout today despite inclement weather he suspects is having an effect on early voting. […]
He said he had been at several east side polling places early today and that turnout was “slow” — less than 10 percent — in those precincts.
“The rain is probably keeping some people away,” he said.
But with showers expected to end by early this afternoon, voting should pick up, he said.
…9:06 am… AccuWeather radar screen cap at 9:05…
…9:08 am… Bruce Rauner votes…
…9:16 am… Sun-Times…
At a polling station in the Uptown neighborhood, several voters said this campaign season’s unusually negative rhetoric didn’t deter them from voting.
“Hey, I’ve got fast forward on my commercials and DVR,” said Janis Tiffin, 67, a retired architect. “I don’t watch any of that.”
Craig Shaw, 30, said he felt like he didn’t have an excuse not to vote — since he lives just down the street from the polling station. […]
Caitlin Binder-Markey, 29, a teacher, said her motivation to come out to vote include fears about losing her pension and protecting her right to birth control.
I’m gonna have a ScribbleLive feed for our next round of precinct reports.
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Good morning!
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Have you been pushing yourself past all limits since you can’t remember when in preparation for today, but are now in dire need of one last, great, adrenaline-fueled election day push? Well, come wit it now…
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