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Today’s number: 3.3 percent

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I asked Lewis Lazare last night about Channel 2’s ratings, and he ended up doing the legwork today to find out how many people watched the gubernatorial debate

The hour-long debate notched an average 4.6 Nielsen overnight rating for the hour time slot at 6 p.m. That was good enough for second-place in the time period behind the ABC-owned WLS-Channel 7’s winning combo of its 6 p.m. local newscast., which averaged a 6.8 rating and the syndicated “Wheel of Fortune” game show that averaged an 8.5 overnight rating. One rating point equals 35,000 households in the Chicago market.

* 4.6 times 35,000 equals 161,000 households. Whether everybody in those households watched the debate is another question.

And, in context, there are about 4.8 million households in Illinois. In other words, a mere 3.3 percent of Illinois households had the debate on the tube last night.

* By contrast, 49.1 million households watched the first presidential debate of the 2012 fall campaign, or 42.6 percent of all American households.

This is why I keep telling y’all that you cannot judge a gubernatorial debate like it’s a presidential debate. Few people actually watch gubernatorial debates. The vast majority get all of their info about the debates via news sources, workplace conversations or candidate TV ads.

  35 Comments      


Caption contest!

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Illinois Republican Party’s latest mailer is a cartoon. To see it, click here and here.

“Tax Man!” is the premise and the main character is, of course, the governor…

Repurpose this image to your heart’s desire.

  118 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the twitters…


Heh.

* The Question: Who won last night’s debate? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


online survey

  54 Comments      


Ousted black GOP committeewoman claims party official threatened to “ruin” her family

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois Review

A controversy that erupted in early September over Cook County GOP Chairman Aaron Del Mar appointing a 7th Ward former Democrat as the Ward’s new GOP Committeeman heated up more this week, when Del Mar abruptly stripped Charon Bryson of her new position - a move Bryson is resisting.

Bryson said she was ousted Monday because of dispute between Cook County GOP co-chairman Darnell Macklin and a family member. The family member is Dorian Myrickes, who is the father of Bryson’s children, she said.

Macklin then allegedly threatened Bryson, saying “I will ruin your family,” she claims. Bryson said that when she made that known to the ILGOP and the Cook County GOP, they did nothing.

“I thought I was appointed to change the mindset of African-American voters in the ward because of my community involvement and dedication to my ward,” Bryson told Ilinois Review. “In turn, they removed Dorian Myrickes and Nicholas Myrickes from early voting judges and removed me from the 7th ward committeeman.”

* Chairman Del Mar explained to IR that Bryson was removed because she attempted to appoint Democrats to Republican election judge slots. “That is simply unacceptable,” Del Mar said.

But, wait, there were just 196 Republican ballots requested in the entire 7th Ward this past primary. That’s not exactly a huge pool to choose from, compared to the 5,536 Democratic ballots. There are 46 precincts in the 7th Ward and many of them saw just 1, 2 or 3 GOP ballots cast.

So, it would seem to me that if the county GOP was interested in expanding the party, they’d naturally have to accept local converts from the Democratic side, including very recent converts.

* Either they’re complete goofballs or something else happened. I’m not gonna speculate, but a black woman claiming that a party official threatened to “ruin” her family just days after the big blowup over Rauner’s alleged threat to “hurt you and your family” if a former employee filed a lawsuit, the unruly mob at the debate last night and the story about the armed private detective allegedly intimidating Libertarian petition passers all add up to a possible real problem here.

…Adding… And speaking of LeapSource…

Quinn for Illinois Statement Regarding Bruce Rauner’s Deception About Threatening a Woman

No More Hiding: Release Your Deposition, Mr. Rauner

CHICAGO - Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner made a stunning and false statement last night in explaining the threats he made - according to sworn testimony by witnesses under oath - against a woman executive at one of his companies who he fired after she wouldn’t lay off enough workers at his company. Communications Director Brooke Anderson responded with the below statement and a fact-check on Rauner’s false claims:

“Bruce Rauner deceived voters last night - period.

“Mr. Rauner said this was a frivolous lawsuit, when in fact he settled the lawsuit for more than $500,000. He implied the allegations of his threatening this woman were dismissed when in fact the judge did not address those threats and rather confirmed that Rauner played hardball every step of the way. He called the accusations false - yet he ordered his own deposition in the case to be sealed in court and hidden away from public view.

“Mr. Rauner’s deception last night about this serious case of alleged wrongdoing makes it even more urgent that his deposition be immediately released to the people of Illinois.

“The issue of how Bruce Rauner treated a female executive is too important to be swept under the rug. Release the deposition, Mr. Rauner.”

Rauner’s False Claims - and the Facts He Hid

Last night, Bruce Rauner said, “Let me be clear, you are running an ad about a false accusation, a frivolous lawsuit that was thrown out in court by a judge who dismissed it on summary judgment.” Let’s take it one by one.

Rauner Claim: “False accusation”

Fact: Witnesses testified under sworn oath in a court of law that Rauner made these threats. Is Mr. Rauner saying that these witnesses perjured themselves?

Rauner Claim: “Frivolous lawsuit”

Fact: Bruce Rauner settled this lawsuit for half a million dollars and went to great lengths to put his own deposition under seal. If the claims are so frivolous why did he pay half a million dollars to make them go away, and why did he seal the deposition?

Rauner Claim: “Dismissed it on summary judgment”

Fact: The judge never ruled on the threats made to the woman executive by Rauner. Indeed, the judge said that Rauner played “hardball” with the woman executive every step of the way. Parts of the lawsuit that were dismissed were done so based on legal technicalities.

  65 Comments      


Rate Rauner’s new radio ad

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Some commenters mentioned a new Bruce Rauner radio ad, so I asked the campaign for a copy. Here’s “Throw Me Out”..

* Script…

NARRATOR: What is Pat Quinn promising Illinois the day after the election? Another massive tax hike, this year. Here’s what Quinn said when the media asked him about his plan to raise income taxes on every Illinois family.

QUINN: It’s gonna happen in 2014, in November and December.

NARRATOR: Pat Quinn broke his promise and raised taxes before. This time he’s not even bothering to lie about it.

QUINN: It’s gonna happen in 2014, in November and December.

NARRATOR: Quinn’s tax hike would raise income taxes on every working man and women in Illinois. Every single one.

QUINN: It’s gonna happen in 2014, in November and December.

NARRATOR: After 100 years of failure, Pat Quinn wants four more years? And even more tax hikes this year.

RAUNER: Here’s the deal. Give me a shot to deliver more jobs and lower taxes, and if we don’t get it done, throw me out in four years.

NARRATOR 2: Bruce Rauner, shake up Springfield, bring back Illinois. Paid for by Citizens for Rauner, Inc.

…Adding… My own thought is that if you’re upset about the income tax hike, you’re not voting for Quinn anyway. I’m not sure how many new voters this brings to the fold, but, hey, I could be wrong. Your own take?

  31 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Broadcast TV ad, AFP mailers

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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“The black vote”

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* ABC 7

In a debate at the DuSable Museum of African American history, candidates for governor vied for the black vote that Republicans are not conceding this year.

“Governor Quinn, in my opinion, is taking the African American vote for granted,” said Rauner.

Rauner told the majority African American audience and panel that blacks had not fared well under incumbent Pat Quinn’s leadership.

“Brutally high unemployment, deteriorating schools, lack of a proper social services,” said Rauner.

I’m not sure how you can accuse Quinn of using an anti-violence program to buy black votes four years ago and still say he takes the black vote for granted. Should he do another NRI or something?

* Tribune

[Rauner said] the Democratic governor “could have and should have” made Stephanie Neely, the black city treasurer of Chicago, his running mate but threw her “off his ticket” in favor of former Chicago Public Schools chief Paul Vallas.

“African-American families are suffering in Illinois — brutally high unemployment, deteriorating schools, lack of proper social services and rampant cronyism and corruption that’s taking away job opportunities from African Americans,” Rauner said.

The Neely snub definitely upset some members of Chicago’s African-American elite, so that was a good line for Rauner that’ll play well with a small group of folks. I wonder how Neely feels about Quinn and/or Rauner today?

* AP

Quinn was asked how he’d help build trust among minorities with law enforcement.

He noted his record of trying to clear the clemency backlog of more than 2,500 cases that built up under his predecessor, saying he’s considered cases “based on justice and mercy.”

“That is part of helping ex-offenders who have made mistakes, who have served their time, get a fresh start,” he said.

But Rauner said Quinn has failed on crime, public safety and the prison system, saying the best way to reduce crime is to grow the economy to create jobs.

“We have crime because we have a lack of opportunity,” he said.

Neither candidate actually answered that question, and it’s a very important one in the community.

* But, speaking of “creating jobs,” Mary Ann Ahern reported that some participants in a loud and rowdy protest outside the governor’s debate admitted to being paid to attend. That was confirmed by Natasha Korecki…


Ward is pretty well known in some South Side circles as an agitator.

Ward didn’t say who was paying him, but said it wasn’t the Rauner campaign, even though he had a bus to take them away…



I’m told by one reporter who was there that it appeared Rauner’s people asked the protesters to stop and they complied.

* Meanwhile, Rauner’s campaign is blanketing the interwebtubes with some new YouTube videos of prominent African-American supporters. I’m seeing these ads almost everywhere I navigate today. The full list is here, but let’s just watch a couple of them. Pastor Corey Brooks

* Rev. James Meeks

* President Obama will appear with Gov. Quinn this weekend on the South Side. And he had this event scheduled for today…

As part of his Birth to Five Initiative, Governor Pat Quinn will announce an investment in early childhood education in one of Illinois’ most underserved communities.

WHEN: 11 a.m.

WHERE: Gads Hill Child Development Center
2nd Floor
2653 W. Ogden Ave.
Chicago, 60608

  45 Comments      


Some riveting TV

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* For me, anyway, the best part of last night’s debate was near the end, when the two candidates were allowed to ask each other questions

“On the 27th of February of 2001, Mr. Rauner, you fired a woman executive at your firm for not laying off enough workers, and you threatened her. You said you would bury her. You said you would bankrupt her and her family. You said you would hurt her and her family,” as Quinn asked the question, Rauner shook his head, smiling.

“Why did you say that Mr. Rauner? It’s never right to threaten anyone.”

The crowd laughed a bit in reaction to Quinn’s last comment, teeing up Rauner to unleash a visceral attack at Quinn.

“Gov. Quinn, this is more of the baloney you throw out continuously. I can’t keep up with the lies that you spin.

“Let me be clear, you are running an ad about a false accusation, a frivolous lawsuit that was thrown out in court by a judge who dismissed it on summary judgment,” Rauner retorted.

“You are taking an accusation and spinning it into an ad because you can’t run on the truth. The truth is, you’re the worst governor in America. You are failing the people of Illinois … You can’t run on your record, you’ve got to make up lies about me in order to win.”

Rauner shouldn’t have laughed when Quinn asked the question, but he sure as heck did fire back with both barrels.

* A “body language expert” opined to Fox 32 that Quinn “looked like a beaten dog”

WFLD, Chicago’s Fox affiliate, spoke with a body language expert who said Quinn’s appearance, especially in the last two minutes, was “pretty bad.”

“It was as bad as I’ve ever seen anyone get beaten up in a debate,” said Perry Myers, president of MSI Detective Services. […]

“You’ve failed in every regard,” Rauner said in the final minutes of the debate. “You can’t run on your record-you have to make up lies about me.”

Myers noted the Rauner was “much more confident” than Quinn, who could not look the Republican candidate in the eye. “[Quinn] was shaking with every word,” Myers added.

Watch

It’s my own view that Quinn really doesn’t like direct, face-to-face conflict, so that may be why he seemed so timid about asking the question. There have been times in the past when he’s been so angry at me over something that he wouldn’t even look at me when I asked him questions during press conferences. He’s just that way.

  76 Comments      


Kirk boosts Dold in new ad while Schneider poll claims big lead

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Mark Kirk appears in a new TV ad for Republican congressional candidate Bob Dold. Kirk represented much of this district when he was in Congress. Have a look

* Meanwhile, Lynn Sweet obtained a polling memo from Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider’s campaign

· In a rematch of their 2012 contest, Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider now leads former Republican Congressman Bob Dold by a solid 8-point margin, 48% to 40%, while 11% of likely voters remain undecided with less than four weeks to go until Election Day.

· At the top of the ticket, Democratic U.S. Senator Dick Durbin is leading Republican Jim Oberweis by 12 points, 52% to 40%, but Democratic Governor Pat Quinn trails Republican Bruce Rauner by 7 points, 40% to 47%.

· On a generic ballot citing no specific candidates, an unnamed Democrat for Congress leads an unnamed Republican by three points, 45% to 42%.

· Voters are more likely to view Schneider’s performance in Congress positively (5% excellent/37% good) than negatively (25% not so good/13% poor).

· Despite being the incumbent, Schneider (13% never heard) is actually less familiar to voters than Dold (3% never heard), providing the Democrat more room to grow.

As I’ve pointed out before, Gov. Quinn should be doing well in this district and he’s getting pounded by Rauner.

* And this is from the Schneider campaign…

U.S. Congressman Brad Schneider (IL-10) launched a new broadcast TV ad highlighting his Democratic priorities, including protecting a woman’s right to choose, preserving our environment and strengthening Medicare.

The new ad, “A Good Fit,” will be paired with the “On the Floor” TV ad currently running on broadcast that hammers Schneider’s opponent Bob Dold for his reliable Republican record, including his votes to defund Planned Parenthood and end the Medicare guarantee.

* The new ad

* Script…

Husband: Let’s try this again.

Wife: OK

Husband: OK, Brad Schneider and the Democrats, protecting Lake Michigan

Wife: And our drinking water…

Husband: Retirement security…

Wife: Puts the middle class first and protects my right to choose.

Husband: Equal pay…

Wife: and marriage equality…

Husband: Definitely more our style

Wife: It’s a keeper.

Husband: It matches the couch.

Wife: It’s a perfect fit.

We’ve already discussed the companion ad, but it’s here if you want a refresher.

  39 Comments      


Diana Rauner tries to soften husband’s image

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The GOP gubernatorial candidate’s wife is featured in a new ad that’s likely intended to blunt the impact of Gov. Quinn’s harsh TV spot about the alleged threats of a female executive…

Bruce Rauner today launched a new TV ad featuring his wife Diana reminding voters why Pat Quinn and his special interests allies are attacking Bruce with false negative smears.

“When Bruce decided to run for governor, we knew it would be rough,” Diana Rauner says in the new 30-second spot titled “Hope.” “False vicious attacks – the machine politicians will do whatever it takes to keep power. Bruce doesn’t owe anybody anything and that scares special interests. But he’s smart, honest, successful – everything our state government isn’t. I’m Diana Rauner, if you’re ready to turn our state around and create new opportunities for our kids and our future, then I hope you’ll vote for Bruce.”

* Will it work? Rate it

  94 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - More TV ads

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Post-debate spinning

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* During last night’s debate, Bruce Rauner refused to answer repeated questions about whether he’d ban assault weapons. I thought the questions were a bit silly because he’s already said he didn’t favor a ban, but it’s an issue in the Chicago-area, and Quinn will attempt to take full advantage today

Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn is drawing on the support of families of mass-shooting victims to highlight the issue of gun control in his re-election bid against Republican Bruce Rauner.

Quinn’s campaign is planning a Chicago event Wednesday with Sandy and Lonnie Phillips, the parents of a young woman killed in the 2012 theater shootings in Aurora, Colorado. The event also will feature families of Illinois victims of assault-rifle shootings.

* Meanwhile, the Rauner campaign released this video last night about Gov. Quinn’s repeated attempts to evade questions about whether he’d back a post-election extension of the income tax hike. Again, kind of a silly question because of course the governor plans to make another push to pass the extension if he wins, and won’t be able to get it done if he loses. But, anyway, here’s the YouTube video

  44 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Mail-in ballot analysis, Crosstabs, TV ad, Cable TV Buys, Events List

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Good morning!

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* “My mama said that every man is only worth his unbroken word,” laments Daniela Andrade in her gut-spilling, knife-sharp original “Don’t Care,” which has close to a million YouTube views. Let’s ease our way into Andrade’s unselfconsciously literate planet this morning by tuning into her and Gia Margaret’s seminal and beautifully melodic cover of Springsteen’s “Dancing in The Dark”

Man, I ain’t getting nowhere
I’m just living in a dump like this

  16 Comments      


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