Pension reform status update
Wednesday, Oct 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the We Are One Coalition…
Today, the Sangamon County Circuit Court decided it would take up first the motions filed by the We Are One Illinois coalition and other plaintiffs who argue that the Pension Protection Clause renders SB1 unconstitutional. At today’s status hearing, the Court stated its belief that the Plaintiffs’ motions, if granted, will resolve the question of whether SB1 is constitutional. The Court directed the Plaintiffs to file their replies in support of their motions by October 31 and set argument for November 20 at 1:30 p.m.
The following statement may be attributed to We Are One Illinois:
“As we have always maintained and the recent Kanerva decision confirms, the pension protection clause of the Illinois Constitution is absolute and without exception. There is no merit to the State’s purported justification for the unconstitutional diminishments and impairments that SB1 imposes. We are hopeful for a swift resolution in the plaintiffs’ favor, so that we can work with legislators willing to develop a fair—and legal—solution to our state’s challenges, together.”
…Adding… SJ-R…
“There are three motions pending saying that the reserve sovereign powers as alleged by the state is not a defense in this case,” said Springfield attorney Don Craven, who filed one of the multiple lawsuits attempting to have the pension reform law declared unconstitutional. “The court agreed to take those matters up first. If we are right, and the reserve sovereign powers doesn’t work, this case will be over.”
At least at the circuit court level. Both sides agree the matter will eventually be decided by the state Supreme Court.
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Caption contest!
Wednesday, Oct 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Yes, it’s late in the day, and yes, we already have one other caption contest going, but how could we pass up this? From my pal Kerry Lester…
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Money still coming in for referenda
Wednesday, Oct 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* More money is flowing into political committees designed to push statewide ballot initiatives. For instance the Committee to Reduce Income Inequality & to Support Human Rights has gone from raising $757,500 since the end of last month to a bit over a million dollars today. The Operating Engineers, Amalgamated Transit Union and the Great Lake Region Organizing Committee have all pitched in since we last checked that committee.
* The Committee to Raise Illinois’s Minimum Wage had raised $603K by the end of September. It’s up to $962K today. SEIU Healthcare, the NEA, Leo Smith and others all contributed.
* And as subscribers already know, Dr. Henry Nicholas III contributed $850,000 to the Marsy’s Law for IL Committee on October 1st.
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A very important thing to remember
Wednesday, Oct 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This comment by “Illannoyed” is spot on…
The Rauner folks might be getting some of what they need. Both the Sun-Times and Tribune have headlines and stories that can be used in campaign ads. I understand that a campaign taking advantage of an existing policy isn’t improper in and of itself, but good luck explaining that to an electorate accustomed to political corruption. The nuance is likely to be completely lost.
S/he’s right. Sun-Times…
Tribune…
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Oct 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Former Illinois Violence Prevention Authority director Barbara Shaw is sworn in this morning before taking questions from the Legislative Audit Commission…
* The Question: Caption?
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* Sun-Times…
For the first time, proof emerged that Gov. Pat Quinn’s 2010 Neighborhood Recovery Initiative factored into his election strategy that year in personal emails from the governor’s former top aide that were released Wednesday by a legislative panel investigating the program.
The emails from ex-Quinn chief of staff Jack Lavin represented a key highlight from the opening of two more days of hearings on the $54.5 million anti-violence grant program that is now under federal investigation. […]
“I don’t think there’s been any question in anyone’s mind that the Quinn administration, his governmental staff and his political staff, used government resources to please certain constituencies that they hoped would increase the voter turnout and suppress the voter turnout for us prior to the election,” Brady told Early & Often, the Chicago Sun-Times political portal.
“There’s been various sightings, so to speak. This clearly is smoke. I don’t know if it’s a smoking gun or not. But clearly, they were using government programs to try to increase their support in certain communities in the state. This is clear evidence of it,” said Brady, who narrowly lost the 2010 election to Quinn and is a member of the Legislative Audit Commission.
* OK, let’s look at the e-mails.
…Adding… The governor’s campaign and a spokesperson for the Senate Republicans clarified that these e-mails were from Jack Lavin’s personal, not his government account.
[If the links don’t work for you, click here, go to NRI Audit Review Documents and then find the Lavin e-mails.] Here’s the relevant part of the Lavin e-mail dump mentioned above. Lavin was Quinn’s chief operating officer at the time and also did work on the campaign during his off-hours…
* This does indeed show cooperation between the governing side and the campaign side. But if you know anything about campaigns and governing, you know that there is no absolute wall separating the two. As long as it’s done outside the confines and locale of government offices, hours, etc., it’s all accepted practice.
Look, incumbents campaign on (or run away from) their records, and so it’s no real surprise that the campaign would discuss the value of using a state program for their guy’s political benefit (or to keep something from becoming a problem). And, again, keep in mind that these aren’t state workers on state time. These are people with the campaign and administration officials on their own time. There’s a huge difference there.
The e-mails certainly show that the NRI was viewed by the campaign as a popular program that would help Quinn’s reelection. I don’t think anyone has ever denied that. Governors do this sort of thing all the time with ribbon cuttings, etc. If you want politics completely out of government, you have to cancel all elections.
* To be illegal, though, you’d probably need some internal state correspondence or a witness who could place overtly campaign decisions within the governing process, instead of the other way around (which is what those e-mails appear to show). Barbara Shaw denied any such connection during her testimony this morning…
“Elected officials, presidents, governors often introduce initiatives and programs to respond to the needs of constituencies that they serve. So, it wasn’t a shock to me, that this was happening during that time. But I do want to say here, the governor’s office never told us who to give the money to, what communities to go in, what agencies should get that money. The elections did not play a role in where that money went to,” Shaw answered.
* So, on to some other e-mails, which are agendas for early morning campaign meetings…


* Again, what this shows is that on at least three days during the the campaign, the political operatives discussed the political value of the NRI program.
Were decisions being made about the actual NRI program during those three meetings, or was NRI discussed in the context of maximizing political benefit from a state program? Standard campaign procedure would suggest it’s most likely the latter, but, of course, we don’t know for sure.
However, “incoming FOIAs” right below “NRI” is quite interesting. We don’t know whether or not the two topics are related. But that’s really interesting. Again, though, the campaign needs to know what to expect from the media and the opposition, and so discussing incoming government FOIA requests would definitely be part of that process.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the Rauner campaign…
“Governor Quinn’s chief of staff tried to conceal these emails but got caught red-handed,” Rauner campaign spokesperson Mike Schrimpf said. “These emails are the tip of the iceberg but one thing is now clear – the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative had nothing to do with policy and everything to do with politics. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that two federal grand juries are investigating the blatant diversion of millions of taxpayer dollars to support the governor’s election. It’s time for Pat Quinn to turn over all of his electronic communications from 2010 so we can finally find out what he knew and when he knew it.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** From the Quinn campaign…
Those were clearly not government conversations.
Chicago was in a state of emergency in the spring and summer of 2010. The issue of gun violence was a critical concern for many constituencies, particularly in the African American community. Six police officers were slain. Dozens of innocent people were being gunned down every day. A young boy was shot 22 times. There were calls for Governor Quinn to activate the Illinois National Guard.
The Governor acted forcefully in response to the bloodshed on the streets. The NRI program was one of many actions he’s taken that the campaign promotes - he signed bills to crack down on gun violence, prevent guns from getting into the wrong hands and to tackle some of the root causes of violence. He implemented programs to address high unemployment in the most at-risk areas. He came into the inner city often to meet with community activists, clergy, parents, students and law enforcement personnel. He did his job.
In any incumbent’s campaign, you run on your record.
Obviously the campaign would want to promote what we are doing to fight violence in the community during an election, just like any other policy issue in a campaign.
We are constantly taking inventory of all the various policies, programs and achievements of the Governor’s administration so we can properly and fully communicate them to constituencies who care about where he stands, what he’s done and what he will continue to do in office.
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Poll: Durbin up 51-38
Wednesday, Oct 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a Jim Oberweis fundraising e-mail sent yesterday…
Here are three quick facts about my campaign to unseat Obama Democrat Dick Durbin in Illinois:
1.) Multiple polls now show me surging to within 6 points of Dick Durbin.
2.) Dick Durbin is nowhere near 50 percent in a single poll.
3.) My campaign needs your immediate help to close this gap and win this race!
Please make your most generous donation of $25, $50, $100, $250, $500, or more to my campaign right now to help me keep the pressure on Dick Durbin. We’re on track to win this race, but we can’t give up now!
My name is Jim Oberweis. I’m a conservative state senator here in Illinois, and I have made it my mission this year to send Dick Durbin packing.
Right out of the gate, liberals - and even some conservatives! - wrote my campaign off as a non-starter. But now, I’m pulling within 6 points of one of the top Democrats in the U.S. Senate!
* It’s a good thing he sent that yesterday, because today…
Seeking his fourth term, Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin held a 13-percentage-point lead over Republican challenger Jim Oberweis in a new Reboot Illinois poll.
Oberweis, a Republican state senator from Sugar Grove, had a better showing among Chicago and Cook County voters than in a Reboot Illinois poll a month ago, but he also lost ground to Durbin among respondents in the five collar counties and downstate. Libertarian candidate Sharon Hansen was the choice of 4 percent of respondents, with 6 percent undecided.
The automated poll of 1,086 likely voters, conducted Oct. 7 by We Ask America, had a margin of error of 2.98 percent with cell phone contacts making up 24.5 percent of contacts. Party identification of respondents was 27 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat and 38 percent independent.
* Crosstabs…
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* The SJ-R followed up on the Politico story about Democratic groups pulling out of Ann Callis’ congressional race…
Ann Callis said Tuesday that having the political arm of the House Democrats pull funding for some advertising on her behalf doesn’t mean she’s out of the running in the 13th Congressional District.
“I don’t wake up in the morning to see what the national Democrats and the national press are saying about me,” Callis told the editorial board of The State Journal-Register. “I know we have built an extremely strong ground game … and I am confident that we are in a very, very good place.” […]
But Brandon Lorenz, DCCC regional press secretary, did not concede the 13th. “Ad reservations are changing every week, and Judge Ann Callis is running an aggressive campaign in a tough climate” while exposing Davis’ record, he said.
“Remain calm!”
* WICS has more Callis reaction…
“It’s clear we’re building grassroots momentum and will continue to fight for our values for the next four weeks.”
“All is well!”
Hat tip to the NRCC for the story links. The “Animal House” reference is my own.
*** UPDATE *** From the Callis campaign…
The campaign of former Chief Judge and Congressional challenger Ann Callis today announced it is in a strong position going into the final four weeks of the election due to its successful fundraising and strong grassroots network of support.
The campaign had its strongest fundraising quarter of the cycle, raising more than $400,000 during the third quarter. As of September 30th, the campaign had more than $545,000 cash on hand. Volunteers across Illinois have responded to Callis’ call for change and have contacted thousands of residents and registered more than 8,300 new voters as of the traditional registration deadline, a strategic key in a district that was decided by 1,002 votes in 2012.
“Our campaign is building strong grassroots momentum as voters connect with our message of restoring accountability to Washington for members of both parties. We’ve seen record fundraising as individual low-dollar donors and families across Illinois are chipping in and doing what they can, rejecting Congressman Davis’ Washington insider strategy of relying heavily on funds from special interests and corporate donors that directly benefit from his votes.
“Let me be clear, this campaign has never been about the national Democratic Party, out-of-state billionaires like the Koch brothers, or Washington pundits. My campaign and vision for public service are not beholden to anybody but the people I’d be elected to serve. As a woman who has spent her career in the judiciary, I’ve been underestimated before, but I am confident and inspired by the many people across our district who are fueling this campaign and leading us to victory on Election Day,” said Callis.
*** UPDATE 2 *** The DCCC has reported paying for about $200K in ads blasting Rodney Davis, so despite the Politico report they haven’t completely withdrawn yet. Many thanks to a commenter.
*** UPDATE 3 *** From the Davis campaign…
1. DCCC was on record saying they were staying in Champaign-Springfield with their initial three week ad reservation. They are currently in the second week of that run. This reservation has been on the books for months, so the money put down this week is nothing new. This reservation has DCCC on Champaign-Springfield until 10/20.
“But the DCCC official pointed out that it will continue to advertise for Callis on Champaign, Ill., television for at least three weeks in October.”
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/gateway-to-dc/democrats-pulling-air-support-for-callis-house-campaign-on-st/article_37b9439a-322a-5d56-b6ee-e469f61d3285.html
2. That same P-D story points out the DCCC reservation pulls in STL market.
“the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has decided to pull October advertising dollars on St. Louis TV it had set aside for Democrat Ann Callis, who is challenging Illinois’ 13th District Republican Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville.”
3. It was reported last week by Roll Call that House Majority PAC, cancelled reservations in STL market targeted for IL13
http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2014-house-majority-pac-cuts-house-races/
4. DCCC still has a reservation in STL for 10/28-11/3 and HMP still has a reservation for Champaign-Springfield for 10/28-11/3. Of course, as the DCCC spokesman said, they are changing weekly.
5. Finally, our media folks confirm today that House Majority PAC has cancelled their reservation in Champaign-Springfield market for 10/21 to 10/27.
So, we have had DCCC pulls in the STL market and HMP pulls in STL and Champaign-Springfield markets, with certainly the potential for more pulls. Anyway you slice it, not good for them.
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* Reboot…
The automated poll, conducted Oct. 7 among 1,083 likely voters by We Ask America, found Cross leading Frerichs 40 percent to 39 percent, with Libertarian candidate Matthew Skopek at 6 percent and 15 percent undecided. Party identification of respondents was 27 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat and 38 percent independent. The margin of error is 2.98 percent. Cell phone contacts made up 24.5 percent of the respondents.
Frerichs, a Champaign Democrat, had trailed Cross, an Oswego Republican, in Reboot Illinois polls on June 17, July 31 and Sept. 4, by margins of 7, 11 and 6 percentage points, respectively.
* Xtabs…
* And the new result ought to help Frerichs raise money. From a recent NYT article entitled “How to Win at Raising Money: Warn That You’re About to Lose”…
Why do campaigns keep saying they’re losing? These doom-and-gloom messages seem to be effective at motivating donors. The best evidence to support this claim comes from a new study by the social scientists Todd Rogers of Harvard and Don A. Moore of the University of California, Berkeley.
In other contexts, they note, projecting confidence is often a successful leadership strategy. But in politics it may serve to demobilize potential donors by convincing them that their contributions are unnecessary. Why give if your preferred candidate is going to win anyway? By contrast, people are often more motivated to act when trying to avoid an undesirable outcome — in this case, losing an election.
To demonstrate this point, Mr. Rogers and Mr. Moore conducted experiments in which they showed that online survey participants are more supportive of hypothetical preferred candidates if they are just behind in the polls instead of just ahead.
These differences matter in the real world of campaigns, as the two professors show using fund-raising experiments conducted by the Democratic Governors’ Association and Anne Lewis Strategies, Inc. Emails from the D.G.A. saying that Rick Scott, the Republican candidate for governor in Florida, was ahead of the Democrat Charlie Crist in the polls were almost 50 percent more likely to result in a donation and raised approximately 60 percent more than those saying Mr. Scott was behind.
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Schneider’s new ad: “On the Floor”
Wednesday, Oct 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Brad Schneider campaign…
U.S. Congressman Brad Schneider (IL-10) released a new broadcast television ad today that highlights former Congressman Bob Dold’s record of standing with Republicans to support ending the Medicare guarantee, raising the retirement age, raising middle class taxes and defunding Planned Parenthood.
“When he had his chance, Dold voted with Republicans to end the Medicare guarantee, raise middle class taxes and defund Planned Parenthood,” Schneider for Congress spokesperson Staci McCabe said. “Time and again, Bob Dold proved he could be counted on as a reliable vote for Republican’s irresponsible agenda.”
* This is the second attempt at reproducing the magic of 2012’s “too Republican” ad. Tell us what you think…
* Script…
Husband: More decisions, huh?
Wife: Yeah.
Husband: Oh no…Bob Dold and the Republicans…
Wife: They’re still selling this stuff?
Husband: Ridiculous. End the Medicare guarantee. Raise our taxes…
Wife: Raise the retirement age for Social Security. Defund Planned Parenthood?
We can’t afford any of this.
Husband: It looks even worse from this side.
Wife: Those Republicans…
Husband: Yeah, it’s not our style.
Wife: Definitely not for this house.
Husband: Do you have the receipt?
Wife: Just throw it out.
Um, if they “can’t afford any of this,” then why throw it out?
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NRI hearing coverage
Wednesday, Oct 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bombshell or just the usual? The lede…
The Neighborhood Recovery Initiative has been a political liability for Gov. Pat Quinn since a state audit tore apart the grant program in February, but newly released emails show top aides to the governor worried about its potential political cost as far back as 2011.
OK, but scroll down and here’s what you see…
That’s when former Quinn chief of staff Jack Lavin, the governor’s former chief operating officer Andrew Ross and the director of the Illinois Finance Authority, Chris Meister, worked to insulate the governor and help contain a brewing, NRI-related tempest involving Chicago Ald. Deborah Graham (29th) in her 2011 aldermanic race. […]
Ross’ emails show that Quinn’s cadre of advisors was focused on a campaign press release from Graham’s aldermanic opponents, who vowed to speak out jointly at a Feb. 15, 2011, news conference against the “questionable appropriation of anti-violence funding directly benefiting the incumbent alderman.”
“The potential exposure for the governor’s office from the factually incorrect press release alludes to a scenario where the governor and Alderman Graham made these funding decisions of [sic] their own,” Meister wrote, noting that four of Graham’s opponents had “received … either directly or through affiliated organizations state and federal funds.”
On the afternoon of Feb. 15, 2011, Meister circulated a statement from Graham in which she assailed her opponents’ “last-minute attack” as a move that “stoops to a new low.”
So, the governor and Graham both deny coordinating the grant. Why wouldn’t the governor’s office work to shoot this one down? Now, if they’re not telling the truth, that’s a whole other story. But if there was no coordination, then they do have a right of self-defense.
* Anyway, the Senate GOP says that live video of the 10 o’clock hearings will be available at the Legislative Audit Commission website (ADDING: It’s actually on the GA’s main page). Subscribers have access to our own exclusive live video here. And here’s the ScribbleLive thingy…
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Quinn TV ad slams Rauner on assault weapons
Wednesday, Oct 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Today’s hearings into the governor’s 2010 anti-violence initiative may have prompted this Quinn campaign ad blasting Bruce Rauner over his stand on assault weapons. From a press release…
350 Bullets: That’s How Many Bullets a Military-Style Assault Weapon Can Fire During New TV Ad
CHICAGO - 350. That’s the number of bullets a military-style assault weapon with a high-capacity ammunition magazine can fire in the time it takes to watch a new Quinn for Illinois TV ad that highlights Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner’s heartless support for the deadly weapons.
Ignoring communities plagued by gun violence, Rauner has expressed strong support for the ownership of military-style assault weapons and said that use of such deadly weapons should be “up to the owner.”
The new ad points out that, “Assault weapons are designed for just one purpose - to kill a lot of people in a short amount of time.”
* Rate it…
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Rauner’s new web video: “NRI Blues”
Wednesday, Oct 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* On the morning of the Legislative Audit Commission’s hearing into the governor’s botched Neighborhood Recovery Initative, Bruce Rauner has launched a new web video which attempts to paint Gov. Pat Quinn as corrupt. Rate it…
* Meanwhile, the AP has a brief preview story about today’s hearing…
The Legislative Audit Commission subpoenaed seven former Quinn administration officials connected to the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative. They’re due to start appearing before the bipartisan committee that oversees state audits today. Organizers say testimony could take all day.
Quinn championed the program in 2010 to help target neighborhood violence. However, state auditors found “pervasive” problems with management and spending and county and federal authorities are investigating further.
Critics deemed it a “political slush fund” to help Quinn shore up votes in a close gubernatorial contest. Quinn dismisses those claims, but the issue dogs his campaign. He faces a challenge from Republican Bruce Rauner
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