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Friday, Nov 7, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Friday, Nov 7, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This sounds like a good idea, but pulling it off will be much harder than it looks…

Former Gov. Jim Edgar said in Springfield Thursday the viability of the Republican Party nationally might depend on whether the GOP can recover support it has been losing in the Hispanic community.

“We cannot lose the Hispanic vote like we’ve lost the African-American vote, or we’re going to be a minority party forever,” Edgar said.

I don’t think he realized it, but Edgar actually diagnosed the problem…

President George Bush “did a very good job of bringing Hispanics into the Republican column,” Edgar said, but congressional Republicans have “undone all that” by rejecting Bush-proposed reforms of immigration laws that included a path to staying in America for many illegal immigrants.

The conundrum for Republicans is that their coalition is deeply divided on the immigration issue. The business wing loves the cheap labor. The populist wing despises the very idea of all these people streaming into America. Reconciling those two sides, as Bush and John McCain both discovered, is nearly impossible. The Latino vote may be gone for a good long while.

* Edgar also repeated his mantra about nominating centrist Republican candidates…

“If we don’t move to the middle, there will not be a viable Republican Party in the state of Illinois,” Edgar said.

Edgar was a moderate to liberal Republican. Pro-choice, for gun control and open to other social liberal ideas. He wasn’t averse to tax hikes except during his 1994 reelection campaign. He succeeded, the moderate to liberal Jim Thompson succeeded, George Ryan moved to the left and beat Glenn Poshard in a good Democratic year.

But the gulf between the IL GOP’s right and center is so huge and bitter that it’s become almost impossible to win a primary without suffering fatal damage.

* The Republicans have been on the decline in Illinois ever since the GOP took over Congress and tried to move the country to the right. The one-two punch of George Ryan’s corruption and George W. Bush’s massive ideological-driven failures have been poison here.

Rod Blagojevich, whose job approval rating was never above about 45 percent in 2006, essentially ran against both George’s two years ago and beat Judy Baar Topinka by ten points. The governor is massively unpopular now, yet the state is still solidly Democratic and getting more so.

* A long string of flawed, bizarre and hopeless statewide candidates starting with Jack Ryan has made voters look at the GOP like they’re a bunch of freaking aliens. For crying out loud, Jim Oberweis still refuses to get off the stage…

So, while Oberweis said Thursday he has no plans to seek political office “right now”, he’s also not saying he never will again. While the latest wound heals, Oberweis said he’s seeking ways to serve as a consultant and fundraiser for his fellow Republicans, particularly in Kane County.

* Sen. Bill Brady, who is a darned good state legislator, ran as a smiling culture warrior in 2006 and he wants to run again…

Bloomington Republican Senator Bill Brady on Thursday told his supporters in an e-mailed newsletter of his intentions to make another run for governor.

Brady ran in the GOP primary for governor in 2006, garnering about 18 percent of the vote behind winner Judy Baar Topinka and Jim Oberweis.

Cook County went huge for the Democrats this year, and the collars also gave Obama big margins. A strong personality may break through that trend, but righty stances on guns. abortion and the culture war are gonna hurt bad.

* George Will’s take…

But conservatives should note what their current condition demonstrates: Opinion is shiftable sand. It can be shifted, as Goldwater understood, by ideas, and by the other party overreaching, which the heavily Democratic Congress elected in 1964 promptly did.

Basing your future success on the hope your opponent will massively screw everything up is not a plan. It’s desperation.

* The Question: What can Illinois Republicans do to get back in the game? Explain fully.

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Dying off?

Friday, Nov 7, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’m getting a real fear deep down that the Sun-Times won’t survive unless something drastic changes very soon…

Sun-Times Media Group Inc. said it lost $168.8 million in its third quarter as revenue sank amid a weak economy.

Ad sales in Chicago dropped 19% in the quarter, and likely won’t begin to increase again until 2010, CEO Cyrus Freidheim said in a letter to investors that was released along with its earnings report Thursday. The company plans to cut $45 million to $55 million in expenses over the next nine months to survive in the meantime.

Newspapers are struggling amid the worst advertising environment in years, and the operator of the Chicago Sun-Times and 70 other community newspapers is no exception. Its latest cost-cutting plan comes on top of a $50 million expense reduction that came in the first half of 2008. All told, the company will have trimmed its costs by 30% by the middle of next year, Mr. Freidheim wrote.

“In view of the worsening market conditions, the company is taking even more aggressive actions to reduce costs,” he wrote. “Our organization understands the severity of the situation and the need for urgent action.”

The latest cost-cutting plan will include “outsourcing, downsizing and the elimination of poorly performing products,” he wrote. No further details were available.

There was a time, not long ago, when I thought about putting together some financing to buy the chain. It wouldn’t cost much. The problems are many, however. The structural deficit is crazy scary. Uncollectable ad revenues are huge. You’d basically have to declare bankruptcy, break the union, strip the pensions, tell the banks to kiss off and try to start all over. But even then, it’s an iffy proposition.

…Adding… To be clear to my fellow union members, the top management would have to be swept out as well, along with their salaries. Everybody just take a breath, OK?

* These may be good intentions, but the moves could spell the death knell of even more newspapers…

President-elect Barack Obama will try to use his office to hinder media concentration and to increase local TV news coverage, objectives that have stirred resistance from industry groups.

The Illinois Democrat, who will succeed George W. Bush on Jan. 20, “is going to push for a more open, more diverse media,'’ Gloria Tristani, a former Democratic member of the Federal Communications Commission, said in an interview.

It’s just not right that the Tribune can own TV and radio stations and yet no TV station can buy the Sun-Times. We may need more consolidation between broadcast and print to save both industries. Print, except for a few papers, won’t last on its own.

* This may look better than it really is…

Don’t look now, but NBC is rolling out some sharp-looking local news sites for its owned-and-operated stations in New York, Washington, Chicago, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and elsewhere.

Using URLs like “NBCWashington.com” and the tagline “Locals Only,” these are quantum leaps over the usual crappy local TV news sites for a very simple reason: They’re actually focused on local news, and eschew the usual mindless over-promotion of the local NBC news team and primetime schedule. They’re also not limited to NBC-produced content–the sites promise to aggregate content from other local sources, as well, a la the very smart Examiner.com model.

I love the look of Channel 5’s new site. The parent company even offered me a spot over there, but I politely turned them down for various reasons. Right now, the site is more concept than execution, but it should improve over time.

* Meanwhile, the Tribune Co. needs to sell the Cubs to pay off its ginormous debt, but that’s in trouble now as well…

Tribune Co. may end up holding 50 percent or more of its storied Chicago Cubs baseball franchise as the credit crunch stalled sales talks, the Wall Street Journal said.

In recent weeks, an early plan to sell a 95 percent stake has fallen to about half as suitors’ ability to buy the team and its stadium on Chicago’s North Side waned, the paper said citing two people involved in the negotiations.

On Thursday, bidders were preparing to receive a request to submit new purchase proposals with financing details, those people told the paper.

Tribune is selling assets to help pay down debt, which stood at $12.5 billion at the end of the second quarter. Declines in readership and advertising dollars at such newspapers as the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times have added to the pressure on the company to secure funds to avoid default.

* Related…

* Obama campaign’s text/mobile effort: A model for newsrooms?

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Obama/Emanuel big news roundup *** UPDATED x1 ***

Friday, Nov 7, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** Another pol says gimme…

U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez said today he would like to be named to fill the U.S. Senate seat that will be vacated by President-elect Barack Obama.

[ *** End of Update *** ]

* I really didn’t think this would happen, but I’m starting to think it might…

Chicago Democrat Emil Jones is retiring from being Illinois Senate president but he won’t rule out being Illinois’ new U.S. senator in Washington.

Jones told The Associated Press in a phone interview Thursday that he would consider it a great honor if Gov. Rod Blagojevich chose him to be Barack Obama’s successor.

The 73-year-old Chicago Democrat said he’s too young to retire and has several options to remain active.

* The Sun-Times offers up some Obama replacement ideas…

• • Valerie Jarrett: Obama confidante, former city official, real estate executive and housing expert.

• • Frank Clark, ComEd chief executive, active on more than a dozen civic boards and organizations.

• • Eric Whitaker, former state public health director and University of Chicago Medical Center executive.

• • Miguel del Valle, a thoughtful and committed former state senator and current city clerk.

• • Gery Chico, former chief of staff to Mayor Daley, Chicago Board of Education president and U.S. Senate candidate.

* And y’all were dissed a bit by the HuffPo…

On a well-regarded Illinois political blog recently, anonymous bloggers were asked to give their choices for the appointment should Obama win. They were also asked to give a rationale for the appointment. What followed was a fascinating exercise in how insiders think. The candidates suggested were a rather exclusive group, the rationales pointed, ruthless, Machiavellian, funny, surprising, depressing, and deeply, deeply cynical.

In one sense they were universal: no one suggested competence as a rationale. I don’t think that those hopeful faces in Grant Park were hoping that the deciding factor in the choice of what man or woman fills President Obama’s Senate seat for the next two years be who can best help our embattled Governor.

Whatever. When has competence ever had anything to do with Illinois politics?

Discuss below if you care.

* The Chicago media has always been extremely parochial, along with the rest of the state, so the drumbeat about “what Obama’s win does for us” continues at a feverish pace…

* The Mayor’s Influence On The White House

* Daley praises Emanuel choice, talk of federal money

* ‘People will come here’: Daley

* Illinois banks on Obama buzz to boost tourism

* Advocates say Obama will be a Great Lakes friend

* Leadership from IL will be strong in D.C.

* The national press is all atwitter that choosing mean ol’ Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff is some sort of major shift in tone…

Barack Obama is signaling a shift in tactics and temperament as he moves from candidate to president-elect, picking sharp-elbowed Washington insiders for top posts.

What the national media has never really been able to comprehend is that Obama has from the start been a sharp-elbowed politico as well as a high-minded “reformer.” He challenged all of his competitors off the primary ballot in his very first race for public office, for crying out loud. He’s not a guy who avoids trench warfare.

* The Tribune editorial board gets it somewhat right…

President-elect Barack Obama’s first personnel decision sends a strong signal that he plans to be a pragmatic, get-it-done leader. You can expect that Rep. Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s choice for chief of staff, won’t let the next White House get bogged down in ideological warfare.

Emanuel helped secure a Democratic majority in the House two years ago by recruiting a broad mix of candidates, including fiscal conservatives and some Democrats who oppose abortion rights and support gun rights. That angered some on the left, but it got the job done.

* This bit from today’s Tribune story was better, however…

Clearly, Obama is sending a no-nonsense message by naming Emanuel and considering Gibbs. While Obama intends to lead the nation as the hopeful, inspirational figure who soared to the pinnacle of American politics, he obviously has no intention of assuming a deferential position in the capital.

DC is a horrid place teaming with snakes and weasels. Show weakness and you’re dead meat. Emanuel may be a lot of things, but he ain’t weak.

* Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham probably said it best…

“This is a wise choice by President-elect Obama.

“Rahm knows Capitol Hill and has great political skills. He can be a tough partisan but also understands the need to work together. He is well-suited for the position of White House Chief of Staff.

“I worked closely with him during the presidential debate negotiations which were completed in record time. When we hit a rough spot, he always looked for a path forward. I consider Rahm to be a friend and colleague. He’s tough but fair. Honest, direct, and candid. These qualities will serve President-elect Obama well.”

* Meanwhile, the line to replace Emanuel in the US House is almost as long as the line for Tuesday night’s Grant Park rally…

Aldermen and County Board members, Democratic loyalists and self-styled reformers—even a newly elected member of Ald. Dick Mell’s (33rd) political dynasty—worked the phones and met with allies to seek support for a potentially crowded special election.

Among those expressing interest in the seat or considered to be potential contenders were: Cook County Board Commissioners Mike Quigley and Forrest Claypool; Alds. Thomas Allen (38th), Gene Schulter (47th), Patrick O’Connor (40th) and Manny Flores (1st); state Rep. John Fritchey and Deborah Mell, the governor’s sister-in-law and daughter of the 33rd Ward alderman.

* More…

* Anatomy of a smear on Rahm Emanuel

* Emanuel’s Constituents React to Congressman’s New Job

* Bids begin for Emanuel’s place in Congress