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This just in… Emil Jones to step aside *** UPDATED x6 ***

Monday, Aug 18, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** UPDATE 1 - 12:09 am *** I warned subscribers a couple of weeks ago that this was a distinct possibility, and I spent most of Sunday evening working the phones after I heard Jones had been making calls. I was just about finished writing the Capitol Fax when I noticed that the Trib had it posted…

Powerful Illinois Senate President Emil Jones Jr. is expected to announce Monday that he soon will retire, sources close to him said Sunday night, which will leave Gov. Rod Blagojevich without one of his closest allies. […]

His decision, not officially confirmed, likely opens a free-for-all to succeed him. Possible candidates to succeed Jones, a Chicago Democrat, as president include Sens. James Clayborne of Belleville, Jeff Schoenberg of Evanston; John Cullerton, Rickey Hendon and Donne Trotter of Chicago; and Terry Link of Waukegan, who doubles as Lake County Democratic chairman.

Jones’ name is on the Nov. 4 ballot with no opposition. He could remain on the ballot and throw the choice of his successor in the Senate district to local party leaders. […]

The loss of Jones at the helm will be a setback for Blagojevich, who counted on his ally to deliver support in the Senate for numerous controversial proposals. Jones’ support gave the Democratic governor a counterweight to House Speaker Michael Madigan, with whom Blagojevich has feuded.

There are others on the possible list, of course, but those are most of the bigger names.

Electing a Senate President requires 30 votes in the Senate, not just a majority of the Democratic caucus. As I told subscribers this morning, that’s the real key. Take a look at this 1981 story for how crazy things can get. And 1979 was worse.

As Larry notes…

The Governor is probably delusionally trying to come up with a Banana Republic type scenario. Of course, some people actually liked Jim Thompson.

Find out what he’s talking about by clicking here or here. But keep in mind that the current Senate rules require a constitutional majority to elect a Senate President.

And as the Tribune points out, the loss of Jones is a huge issue for Gov. Blagojevich. His whole strategy will have to change.

*** UPDATE 2 - 1:43 am *** From the Sun-Times…

Senate President Emil Jones is expected to announce his retirement plans today, stripping Gov. Blagojevich of his most vocal and reliable ally as the governor contemplates a third term. […]

A spokesman for Blagojevich said he did not know anything about Jones’ intentions.

I talked to a Blagojevich insider last night who was taken completely by surprise. Interesting, eh?

* Also…

One source indicated that Jones is likely to serve through the end of this year’s session, scheduled to end in November. Other close allies insist Jones, 72, remains healthy.

Both of those statements are true, as far as I can tell.

* Meanwhile, the Tribune took a recent look at how the governor has “re-emerged” in the past few weeks…

One top Blagojevich counselor acknowledged that “issues during the spring”—a euphemism for Rezko’s corruption trial—”necessitated him not always being out there” in the public eye.

“At the end of the day, he’s going to take heat no matter what,” said the Blagojevich adviser, who asked that his name not be used because he was not authorized to speak about strategy. “There was a consensus that it was time for him to get out there.” […]

Like the Golden Gloves boxer he once was, Blagojevich had to climb back into the ring and flail sometimes wildly to put the focus back on his agenda.

“I think the governor, with all the problems going on out there, maybe is happiest when he’s in the ring throwing those punches,” said state Rep. Robert Molaro (D-Chicago). “I think he sat back and tried other ways, he’s getting other advice, and then he says, ‘I’m only happy when I’m fighting.’ ” […]

“If the speaker thinks this kid is going away, that he’s maybe losing the fight, then the speaker is sadly mistaken,” Molaro said. “I think Rod Blagojevich is going to fight to the bitter end.”

Molaro has a point, but Emil Jones’ retirement is gonna have a huge impact on this comeback.

For instance, instead of putting together a capital plan now, Madigan might want to wait until Jones is gone.

*** UPDATE 3 - 9:14 am *** This was filed last night, at about the same time as the Tribune’s piece, but I didn’t see it…

“Emil called me tonight and said that he has been thinking about it for two years and has decided to retire. He said he will announce it at a news conference Monday,” Sen. Jacobs said. […]

Sen. Jones called each member of the Senate Democratic caucus to inform them of his impending announcement, Mike Jacobs said. He added Sen. Jones told him he plans to serve out the remainder of his term, which ends in January.

The AP is only quoting the Tribune and Sun-Times at the moment. Maybe they could get off their behinds and call Jacobs and some other members, and mention the Small Newspaper story while they’re at it.

*** UPDATE 4 - 9:56 am *** The AP finally got ahold of somebody…

Senator Rickey Hendon tells The Associated Press that Jones has told him he’ll step down after November’s legislative veto session.

Hendon says Jones isn’t retiring because of health problems. He says Jones has spent more than 30 years in the Illinois Legislature, is about to turn 73 and is ready to move on.

Hendon is 1 of Jones’ top deputies. The Chicago Democrat says he’s interested replacing Jones as Senate president.

*** UPDATE 5 - 9:59 am *** Chicago Public Radio makes two important points…

There is also talk about the timing of Jones’ announcement. It comes just eleven days before state election officials finalize the ballot for the fall election. That leaves the potential for party leaders to swap Jones off the ballot and replace him with a hand-picked candidate. That has fueled talk that Jones may make a move to have his son succeed him in office—a maneuver that has been a favorite of Illinois politicians. […]

Jones’ announcement will come as his political mentee Illinois Senator Barack Obama prepares to accept the Democratic presidential nomination next week. Jones and Obama grew extremely close during Obama’s time in the state senate. Any distasteful Chicago-style political dealings connected with Jones’ retirement could become a problem for Obama who has long sought to keep his distance from the city’s reputation for political corruption and slight-of-hand.

I wrote about Jones wanting to install his son, Emil III, a couple of weeks ago. The Obama thing is important as well. This helps create a tiny bit of distance, particularly if something breaks between now and election day.

*** UPDATE 6 - 10:33 am *** Mentioned above, but worth noting …

Jones has been the governor’s biggest supporter [on the capital bill]. He’s expected to stick around through the end of this session — in January. But make no mistake, word of his retirement makes him a political lameduck and the power struggles to replace him have already begun.

The next Senate president is likely to want to put his (or her) stamp of approval on project spending rather than rubberstamp Jones’ vision.

And that’s why the construction spending spree is a little bit deader today than it was yesterday.

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Overreaction? *** UPDATED x1 ***

Monday, Aug 18, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This post from Progress Illinois is not entirely correct…

Last Friday, we learned that State Sen. and Democratic congressional candidate Debbie Halvorson’s stepson, Jay Bush, was seriously injured while serving in Afghanistan. According to an account in the State-Journal Register today, Bush “had been riding in a truck that came under fire at night … Ordered to evacuate, Bush jumped out of the side of the truck. He did not realize the vehicle was parked on a bridge, so he fell 25 feet, landing on rocks.” The Register also reported that Halvorson and her husband were visiting Bush at Walter Reed Hospital in D.C., where he was flown over the weekend. Before heading East, Halvorson said that Bush had “broke his back, and they think his neck.”

If you’re the GOP candidate in the 11th District race, common sense should instruct you to lay off your opponent until she’s gotten through this ordeal.

Well, think again. At least if you’re Marty Ozinga.

That’s right. While Halvorson is in Washington dealing with a family emergency, the Ozinga campaign has apparently put out a robocall attacking her. We have it on good authority from a contact in the field that the call hit district residents’ phones earlier today.

Pretty despicable when you think about it. Especially from a guy who claims he “not a politician.” To the contrary, it looks like politics are foremost in his mind.

But we already had an inkling that Ozinga lacks a certain … decency.

* The Ozinga robocall was a disproportionate response, but it was a response. The DCCC spent over $40K on recent mailers, at least one of them whacking Ozinga for supporting more tax breaks for Big Oil. Here’s the Ozinga campaign’s e-mail sent out in response…

The DCCC made a scurrilous charge that Marty “supports more tax breaks for Big Oil.” As proof, they cite Ozinga’s support of tax credits to encourage refinery expansion and construction – a long-overdue development that would increase supply and lower gas prices.

The rub for the DCCC is: Halvorson also supports “increasing oil refinery capacity,” in addition to supporting “tax incentives for companies who devote resources to the research and development of renewable sources of energy” – incentives for which Big Oil companies would qualify[1]. So Halvorson also supports “more tax breaks for Big Oil.”

The DCCC mailer also claimed that Majority Leader Halvorson “led the fight” for electric rate relief, when it was Senate President Jones who fought that relief for months.

I talked with some Republicans the other day who said Ozinga couldn’t just let the attacks stand (there was also another somewhat negative mailer from Halvorson in the boxes at the time), so they responded.

It may backfire, however, because the response could be seen as disproportionate, particularly when her military stepson is in the hospital.

*** UPDATE *** I’m told that the Ozinga campaign sent a letter to the Halvorson campaign last week offering a mutual truce on negative attacks. No reply.

The DCCC and Halvorson have sent out 4 mailers with some negativity in them in the past few days, plus a Halvorson robocall responding to Ozinga’s robocall, plus a WHOI TV interview on Friday during which Halvorson is quoted as saying this about Ozinga’s lack of political experience…

Halvorson says her experience makes her the better candidate.

“Theres so many things we need to talk about, what we are there for, and you know, if you are a patient, who would you want to do your surgery? Someone whose done it before or someone whose not?” said Halvorson

That’s not exactly hugely negative. Again, Ozinga has been mostly responding, so some of the criticism is unfair. But this is a very difficult high-wire act and Ozinga needs to be extremely careful or this meme could move into the MSM.

* I mentioned the other day that Rep. Aaron Schock’s speech was a bit flat. He tried his best to throw some red meat at the crowd, but the GOP congressional candidate showed once again that he’s not always the most prepared candidate…

“The last time we had this level of socialism being proposed and inexperience at the helm was Jimmy Carter,” said Schock (who was born four months after Democrat Carter left office in 1981).

I later asked Schock what he meant by the “level of socialism” Obama represents.

“Well, he’s promoting what I would term a government takeover of the health system,” Schock said. “He has said he wants to mandate free college tuition for every student in America.

“Unlike TED KENNEDY (he meant JACK KENNEDY, of course) who said, don’t ask what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country … he (Obama) says, we’re the wealthiest country in the world; you should get this, you should get that. You’re entitled to this, you’re entitled to that. To me, that’s a move toward socialism.”

Schock was not specific, at that point, on Obama’s programs.

“I’m familiar with what his work was here at the state Capitol, and to me, the best indicator of future behavior is past behavior,” Schock said. “And he has supported what I would consider to be socialistic moves on health care as a state senator.”

“I don’t remember the exact bills,” he said.

* Related…

* Fake Ozinga ad crosses political line

* Schock, Callahan pander to train enthusiasts

* Marin: Time out for update on political scene

* 2008 Election Forecast: Illinois is Sweet Home for Obama

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