* Tribune…
Most Illinois voters said they think the coronavirus pandemic is not at all under control in this country, according to a survey of voters conducted by The Associated Press. In addition, the majority of Illinois respondents said they disapproved of how President Donald Trump has handled the pandemic.
The pandemic has killed 9,878 Illinoisans and more than 230,000 people across the country. The AP VoteCast survey found Illinoisans were slightly more likely than the national average to believe the pandemic was not under control.
* AP…
AP VoteCast found that 31% of Illinois voters said the U.S. is on the right track and 69% of voters said it is headed in the wrong direction. […]
Overall, 14% of [Illinois] voters said the virus in the U.S. is completely or mostly under control, and 26% said it’s somewhat under control. Sixty percent of voters think the coronavirus is not at all under control in this country. […]
The coronavirus pandemic was top of mind for many voters in Illinois. Forty-six percent said it is the most important issue facing the country today.
Voters also considered the economy a major issue, with 24% saying it ranked at the top.
Also, 64 percent disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the virus, with 57 percent strongly disapproving.
*** UPDATE *** More from the Tribune on the AP poll…
The survey found 60% of Illinois voters approve of Pritzker’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 36% for Trump.
The poll also found that 63 percent believed the federal government should limit the virus’ spread even if it damages the economy. Just 37 percent said the federal government should limit damage to the economy, even if it increases the spread of the virus.
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*** LIVE *** Declared winners
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Keep in mind that most election authorities will report mail-in and early vote ballots first, then move on to precinct results. But some authorities, like suburban Cook, have a backlog of mailed ballots that may not be counted until very late tonight or even in the coming days. Also, I’m told there were a ton of provisional votes today, partly because people requested mail-in ballots and then didn’t fill them out and then voted on election day without bringing those ballots with them. Oops. That could take a while to deal with.
Anyway, here we go…
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* How’s it looking out there?…
* DuPage…
11-3-2020 3:30 PM
68% Voter Turnout
95,102 Voters Today
449,040 Voters Total (RECORD)
190,688 Early Voters*
163,251 Verified Mail Voters
654,394 Registered Voters
* Live coverage links…
* Sun-Times
* Tribune
* NBC 5
* CBS 2
* SJ-R
* The Southern Illinoisan
* BND
* QC Times
Heading out to vote. Talk to you later.
…Adding… Wait. I thought they closed early last night to prevent this from happening?…
Due to polling place changes/late openings, the Clerk’s office has received a court order to permit 17 suburban Cook County precincts to extend voting by one hour - to 8:00pm.
For other up-to-date election information, suburban voters should visit cookcountyclerk.com
Tinley Park Village Hall, 16250 Oak Park Avenue, Tinley Park (Bremen Precinct 59)
City Of Markham 16313 Kedzie Parkway, Markham (Bremen Precinct 21)
Lincoln Elementary School, 811 Chicago Avenue, Maywood (Proviso, Precinct 1)
Lincoln Elementary School, 811 Chicago Avenue, Maywood (Proviso, Precinct 2)
Ernest Kolb School, 9620 Normandy Ave, Oak Lawn (Worth, Precinct 21)
Alsip Heritage 1 Apartments, 11949 S. Ridgeway, Alsip (Worth, Precinct 97)
School District 157 Board Room, 1255 Superior Ave, Calumet City (Thornton, Precinct 38)
Roosevelt School, 111 W. 146th Street, Dolton (Thornton, Precinct 4)
Lincoln School 14100 Honore, Dixmoor (Thornton Precinct 30)
Jesse White Learning Academy 16910 Western Ave. Hazelcrest (Thornton Precinct 59)
Maya Angelou Elementary School 1548 Page Ave. Harvey (Thornton Precinct 102)
Holmes Elementary School 1600 Carse Ave. Harvey (Thornton Precinct 109)
School District 157 Board Room, 1255 Superior Ave, Calumet City (Thornton, Precinct 38)
Roosevelt School, 111 W. 146th Street, Dolton (Thornton, Precinct 4)
Central Township Medical Center, 4949 South Long Avenue, Chicago (Stickney, Precinct 10)
All Saints Lutheran Church, 13350 Lagrange Rd. Orland Park (Palos, Precinct 11)
Navajo Heights School 12401 S. Oak Park Ave., Palos Heights (Worth Precinct 7)
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder said today that he will defy the governor’s order and allow his city’s restaurants and bars to stay open with 25 percent indoor capacity. State mitigations forbid indoor dining and drinking because the IDPH region has surpassed an 8 percent positivity rate.
This same 25 percent strategy failed miserably in the Metro East when it was tried earlier this year, by the way. The mayor and county board chairman said they’ll be trying this policy out for a couple of weeks and then will reassess. It the county’s positivity rate is above 12 percent at that time, then the city and Sangamon County will drop its “phased approach.” Sangamon County’s average positivity rate is currently 9.8 percent.
The mayor brought law enforcement and politicians with him to the announcement today, but nobody with a medical degree attended. He said he would demand more mask-wearing and will mandate that house parties immediately end. Langfelder also claimed that Pritzker’s mitigations won’t work and wouldn’t pass the city council.
* WMAY…
Under the new plan, establishments will be limited to 25 percent capacity and must close no later than 11pm. In addition, customers who want indoor service will be required to fill out a questionnaire about their exposure to the virus. Establishments will have to keep those questionnaires and turn them over to the county on request.
* Gov. Pritzker was asked about the mayor’s announcement today…
The fact is that local officials who are not doing the right thing are the ones who are going to be responsible for the rates of infection going through the roof and our hospitals getting overrun and people dying if they don’t enforce the rules.
That is why those rules exist. And we didn’t make them up. Doctors all over the world have put forward studies and it’s very easy for you to find those, I’ve provided them to every official who has asked for them and frankly to every media outlet. We know that the places that are remaining open, they’re having large gatherings and defying these rules are, in fact, spreading locations. These are places that are amplifying the virus across the state and so you know when you’ve got double-digit positivity rates in your area, as is the case in Springfield, then the local officials need to take the laws that are on the books and the regulations that we’ve put forward and the orders that we’ve asked people to follow and enforce them locally.
Yikes.
The General Assembly’s veto session is scheduled to begin in Springfield two weeks from today. State law allows the governor to convene the GA outside Springfield “in case of pestilence or public danger.”
* The Question: Considering today’s decision by local officials, should the General Assembly cancel, postpone or move the veto session away from Springfield, or should it proceed as scheduled? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please…
online surveys
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About tonight
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Scott Kennedy of Illinois Election Data and I spoke the other day about what we are going to do about election night. Scott has been supplying live results to us for years, but he said because of all the early and mail vote, he didn’t think it would be useful. I agreed.
I’ll have links to live election results so you can follow all the action and I’ll have a post that declares winners whenever possible.
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Election day oddities and ends
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sigh…
This afternoon at a polling place in Wheaton, Sean Casten doubled down on his total disdain for anyone who disagrees with him.
In a conversation with voters, Casten states, “If I win by less than ten, that says that 45% of the district is racist homophobes.” Listen to the audio here.
Ives campaign spokeswoman, Kathleen Murphy: “Sean Casten doesn’t care to understand your disagreements with him. He just thinks you are a low-life if you don’t think like he does.
“This isn’t how we come back together. It isn’t who the Sixth District is. But it is who Sean Casten is. And we are confident that voters are rejecting his toxic, divisive candidacy as we speak.”
* Imagine being so committed to opposing face coverings that you pay for election-day robocalls…
[Hat tip: This guy]
* BND…
In Bond County, voters are considering a referendum about whether downstate Illinois should kick Chicago out of Illinois to form its own, 51st state.
The referendum, which is non-binding, is appearing on the ballot due to the grassroots efforts of local citizens who collected about 600 signatures on a petition.
* I’ve been getting press releases from this PR firm for months, but this is the first time I thought about posting one of them…
Hi - Cities across America are boarding up and bracing for civil unrest and/or celebrations tonight. People are expected to spill out into the streets regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election. A popular celebration tactic of years past (most notably for the Philadelphia Eagles when they won the Super Bowl in 2018) is for people to climb street poles.
To deter people from doing so and ensure their safety, ImLive, an adult company, is offering to deploy 220 gallons of lube to New York City and Los Angeles. The lube can be used to grease up dry street poles, thus making it nearly impossible for people to scale them.
Check out a SFW image here - https://www.dropbox.com/sh/esqgc8onar2v6le/AABgyE0cOngOiobFGxyIMfiha?dl=0
I’ve also included a quote from ImLive’s VP of Business Adrian Stoneman –
“We wanted to extend a helping hand and ensure people’s safety while they took to the streets tonight and want to make sure no one is climbing street poles and inevitably getting hurt. To thwart any attempts at scaling these erect structures, we would love to deploy our vats of lube to New York City and Los Angeles so that they can lube their dry poles. We have (4) 55 gallon drums of lube read to go. We hope these cities take us up on our generous offer,” said Adrian Stoneman, Vice President of Business, ImLive.
To be clear, we are offering (4) 55 gallon barrels = 220 gallons of lube in total.
As usual, fly-over country is excluded from the largesse.
* Sigh…
* Musical interlude…
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* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 6,516 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 68 additional deaths.
Adams County: 1 female 90s
Clay County: 1 female 90s
Clinton County: 1 female 90s
Coles County: 1 female 90s, 1 male 90s
Cook County: 2 males 50s, 1 male 60s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s, 1 male 80s, 1 male 90s
DuPage County: 1 male 60s, 1 male 90s
Effingham County: 1 male 70s
Franklin County: 1 male 80s
Grundy County: 1 male 70s
Kane County: 2 females 70s, 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s
Knox County: 1 male 80s
Lake County: 1 female 80s
LaSalle County: 1 female 100+
Lee County: 1 male 60s, 1 male 80s
Macon County: 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s, 2 females 90s
Madison County: 3 males 70s, 1 male 90s
Marshall County: 1 female 80s
Mason County: 1 female 60s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 80s
Mercer County: 1 male 80s
Peoria County: 3 females 80s, 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s, 1 male 90s
Shelby County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 80s
St. Clair County: 1 male 60s, 2 males 80s, 1 male 90s
Stephenson County: 1 male 80s
Tazewell County: 1 female 90s
Warren County: 1 female 60s
Whiteside County: 1 female 90s
Will County: 1 female 50s, 1 female 100+
Williamson County: 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s
Winnebago County: 1 male 70s, 3 females 80s, 3 males 80s, 1 female 100+
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 430,018 cases, including 9,878 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 82,435 specimens for a total 7,958,856. As of last night, 3,594 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 755 patients were in the ICU and 326 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 27 – November 2 is 8.2%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 27, 2020 – November 2, 2020 is 9.9%.
Case positivity and test positivity rate are both relevant and offer insight into the bigger COVID-19 picture. Case positivity helps us understand whether changes in the number of confirmed cases is due to more testing or due to more infections. Whereas, test positivity accounts for repeated testing and helps us understand how the virus is spreading in the population over time.
*All data are provisional and will change. In order to rapidly report COVID-19 information to the public, data are being reported in real-time. Information is constantly being entered into an electronic system and the number of cases and deaths can change as additional information is gathered. For health questions about COVID-19, call the hotline at 1-800-889-3931 or email dph.sick@illinois.gov.
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* Your observations so far today? Any hijinks?
* Statewide…
The Illinois State Board of Elections has updated its early voting totals, according to Illinois Election Data.
About 2.3 million votes by mail were requested and about 1.8 million have been returned, leaving 521,045 that are outstanding for a return rate of 78 percent.
Nearly 3.8 million voted early all together in Illinois.
* Chicago…
Chicago Board of Elections spokesman Jim Allen said 29,500 ballots were cast in the first hour of voting Tuesday. As of just before 11 a.m., 916,423 ballots had been cast either in-person or by mail.
Though some polling locations did report delayed openings, Allen said none will require precincts to remain open late.
While several issues remain under investigation from the board, Allen did provide some details on a few reported incidents in the. city.
Several voters reported that sharpies were bleeding through ballots, but Allen said one bleed-through on the front will not hit a target on the back. He acknowledged the need for some scanners to be replaced and the occasional equipment issue to be fixed.
…Adding… I’m hearing now from an attorney involved in this that the Sharpie pens are actually spoiling some ballots. Heckuva job, Chicago Board of Elections.
*** UPDATE 1 *** Some are half-jokingly calling this “Sharpiegate.” It’s not a problem everywhere, but it is causing issues in some areas when the markings bleed through to the back. Making matters worse is that, as always, every judge is handling things differently, and that’s creating confusion.
*** UPDATE 2 *** This is easier said than done…
[ *** End Of Updates *** ]
* Suburban Cook…
According to officials, 87,000 voters have cast a ballot today in suburban Cook County. Already, 430,000 mail-in ballots have returned in suburban Cook County.
* DuPage County as of noon…
11-3-2020 NOON
65% Voter Turnout
70,509 Voters Today
424,398 Voters Total
190,688 Early Voters*
163,201 Verified Mail Voters
652,895 Registered Voters
Early Voting Location Voters
2008 – 96,369
2012 – 78,561
2016 – 108,902
2018 – 89,665
2020 – 190,688* (9-24-2020 – 11-2-2020)
*In previous elections, early voting location voter statistics did not include “in-person absentee”.
Vote by Mail Applicants
2016 – 32,126
2018 – 42,338
2020 – 212,816
Historic General Election Voter Turnout
2016 Turnout – 70.6% Ballots Cast – 434,050 Registered Voters – 614,752
2012 Turnout – 71.4% Ballots Cast – 400,601 Registered Voters – 560,718
2008 Turnout – 76.3% Ballots Cast – 420,397 Registered Voters – 551,280
2004 Turnout – 76.1% Ballots Cast – 404,117 Registered Voters – 530,732
2000 Turnout – 76.5% Ballots Cast – 369,300 Registered Voters – 482,789
Some good stuff in those links, so check ‘em out.
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Could it be… Satan?
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Illinois Review…
Congressman Sean Casten appeared to think flashing “666″ (the Biblical number referring to the Anti-Christ) Tuesday along with some folks in a parking lot outside a polling place.
Maybe self-proclaimed atheists like Casten think that’s funny?
Um, I dunno, maybe it’s because Casten represents the 6th Congressional District?…
[Headline explained here.]
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* Rather than simply repeating the local mayor’s incendiary words, the SJ-R is finally starting to talk to medical professionals…
Springfield and Sangamon County officials told bar and restaurant owners to operate as they had been through the weekend. Officials are set to announce Tuesday how they plan to implement Pritzker’s mitigation order.
But local health officials are sounding the alarm. Dr. Raj Govindaiah, chief medical officer for Memorial Health System, said that the virus is “spreading so rapidly right now” that mitigations will help, but it would likely be at least two to three weeks before rates start trending down under the best circumstances.
“The surge is in our community right now,” Govindaiah said. “And instead of asking me what I’m doing, I’m going to ask the community, what is it doing? Because I can only do so much. I cannot create enough hospital beds for everyone in central Illinois if they all get sick at the same time.”
Govindaiah said Memorial currently has the highest number of COVID-19 patients it has had at any point during the pandemic, approaching 100 patients. Last month, it was 60. The month before, 30. […]
Govindaiah said mitigation measures imposed by Pritzker would be effective if people followed them, noting that the highest risk exposures occur when people are eating and drinking in close proximity for prolonged periods of time.
* The message might be getting through…
Sangamon County Sheriff Jack Campbell said he’s been in constant communication with Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder, Springfield Police, and the Sangamon County Department of Public Health for guidance on enforcement so they can all be on the same page.
Campbell said he wants to do what safe for community, but also remain fair to business owners.
“We have the ability to warn people if they’re not socially distancing or they don’t have their mask on,” Campbell said. “We have the ability to cite them if there is a clear violation. So, we will continue to use that type of discretion when it comes to enforcement.”
Langfelder’s office released a statement, stating a joint press briefing will take place on Tuesday afternoon at the Sangamon County Department of Public Health.
Springfield is a massive regional medical center. The mayor has often said he wants to attract more health care-related businesses. That’s a great idea. But COVID denialism ain’t the way to do it.
* Winnebago County’s public health officials are spitting into the wind right now. The county’s positivity rate is 14.9 percent, but too many area leaders seem wholly unconcerned…
One of the most intense election cycles in recent memory will come to a head Tuesday night, and few things would feel better than to celebrate political success — or mourn a defeat — with family and friends.
Don’t do it.
That’s the advice from Winnebago County Health Department Administrator Sandra Martell and Mayor Tom McNamara. […]
Once such event was planned for Monday night at Fozzy’s Bar & Grill, which announced on its Facebook page that it would host state Rep. John Cabello’s election eve rally, along with Sheriff Gary Caruana, Loves Park Mayor Greg Jury and state Sen. Dave Syverson. Fozzy’s offered free food to the first 100 people in the door. […]
Contacted Monday, Cabello expressed little concern about the transmission of COVID-19.
Fozzy’s Bar & Grill was issued its “4th Order of Closure” on October 28th. And yet it’s still open and defiant because the local authorities won’t cooperate with public health officials. Also, that wasn’t just free food, it was a free buffet. A buffet. In a pandemic. Nothing to see here. Move along.
* East Peoria’s mayor gets some blowback…
The Tazewell County Health Department and East Peoria officials are at odds over Gov. JB Pritzker’s order for tighter COVID-19 restrictions in Region 2, which includes the Tri-County Area.
Shortly after the governor issued the order on Sunday, East Peoria Mayor John Kahl said in a Facebook post that the city will not be enforcing those orders. On Monday, the Tazewell County Health Department posted a scathing reply, via its own Facebook page.
“While we appreciate an elected official can do as he/she sees fit for their community, no official, including Mayor Kahl, has had a recent conversation with TCHD or been given permission to speak for the health department on this developing issue. … Denying that COVID-19 is real, disregarding the mitigations and ignoring strong public health guidance for safety only makes COVID worsen in our community and does nothing to get us back to normal or slow infection in our community,” the post read.
* Peoria’s mayor urged caution…
On Monday, Peoria Mayor Jim Ardis said he had fielded a slew of emails suggesting he also thumb his nose at Pritzker.
“Some of those emails said I should tell the governor to go and pound salt,” Ardis said. “And those were the nice ones.”
But Ardis said he not only did not have the legal standing to shrug off the order, but he also did not want to prod any Peoria businesses into putting themselves at risk.
“No mayor in the state has the authority to override the governor’s executive order unless the court decides otherwise,” he said. “We shouldn’t give businesses a false sense of security that the state won’t come in and enforce the governor’s (executive order) and potentially revoke their liquor and gaming licenses.”
* Park Ridge is cracking down…
Park Ridge restaurants that defy the governor’s indoor dining ban and continue to serve customers inside are being fined daily, a city official said.
Between Thursday and Sunday, the city issued three restaurants a total of $1,750 in fines for continued non-compliance with the governor’s order, said Jim Brown, director of community preservation and development.
The restaurants were fined $250 for the first violation and $500 for subsequent violations, Brown said.
Daily fines of $500 “will continue as long as they remain open,” the director said, adding that the city is also exploring other options, such reporting the establishments to the county and state health departments or recommending a suspension of their liquor licenses.
“No one is happy about enforcing this,” Mayor Marty Maloney said during a virtual meeting of the Park Ridge City Council Monday. “We’re all in this situation, playing the hand we’re dealt.”
* Meanwhile…
Also raising concerns is Lincoln Mayor Tracy Welch, who in a Facebook post said he’s “adamant that our bars and restaurants cannot withstand another lengthy shutdown and I will do everything in my power to see that they survive.”
He said there have been discussions with the police chief and the city “will not take any action against a business that chooses to remain open unless there is a judicial order.”
“I will not revoke or suspend the liquor license for any establishment that chooses to remain open and serve alcohol,” he said.
If people just worked the program, there would be no need for a lengthy cessation of indoor service. The resisters are making it worse for everyone else.
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Mid-morning election day precinct reports
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Seeing anything interesting? Hearing about any problems? Let us know. Bored and looking for something to do? Go take a ride and look around and report back. Also, how’s the weather by you? Absolutely gorgeous here in Springfield.
…Adding… From the DuPage County Clerk as of 9:30 this morning…
DuPage County General Election
11-3-2020 9:30 AM
61% Voter Turnout
43,791 Voters Today
397,649 Voters Total
190,689 Early Voters*
163,169 Verified Mail Voters
651,879 Registered Voters
Early Voting Location Voters
2008 – 96,369
2012 – 78,561
2016 – 108,902
2018 – 89,665
2020 – 190,689* (9-24-2020 – 11-2-2020)
*In previous elections, early voting location voter statistics did not include “in-person absentee”.
Vote by Mail Applicants
2016 – 32,126
2018 – 42,338
2020 – 212,816
Historic General Election Voter Turnout
2016 Turnout – 70.6% Ballots Cast – 434,050 Registered Voters – 614,752
2012 Turnout – 71.4% Ballots Cast – 400,601 Registered Voters – 560,718
2008 Turnout – 76.3% Ballots Cast – 420,397 Registered Voters – 551,280
2004 Turnout – 76.1% Ballots Cast – 404,117 Registered Voters – 530,732
2000 Turnout – 76.5% Ballots Cast – 369,300 Registered Voters – 482,789
…Adding… Here are links to live coverage updates from Illinois media outlets. If you know of others, mention them in comments and I’ll add links as we go along…
* Sun-Times
* Tribune
* NBC 5
* CBS 2
* SJ-R
* The Southern Illinoisan
* BND
* QC Times
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Do better
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* If a Republican county clerk in, say, Georgia, did this, we’d likely see it in the national news…
Poll workers at some Cook County sites sent voters who were still in line about 7 p.m. home, an election official said.
Cook County Clerk Karen Yarbrough’s election offices turned away voters who were still in line at 7 p.m. on Monday, the clerk’s spokeswoman Sally Daly said. […]
“The Cook County Election Judge Manual itself states that anyone in line when early voting ends for the day has the right to cast their ballot and must be allowed to vote,” Ami Gandhi, the senior counsel for the Chicago Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights, said in a statement. ” But tonight, voters came out the cold and waited for hours to cast their ballots, only to be turned away without explanation. That needless barrier undoubtedly disenfranchised Cook County voters.”
* Long lines in the southern states are deemed to be vote suppression. Here? Just part of life…
Polls open at 6 a.m. Tuesday and close at 7 p.m. Long lines? Don’t fret: If you’re in line at 7 p.m., you are entitled to vote.
My point is not that the southern states don’t have very real voter suppression issues, of course. They most certainly do. My point is that election officials (and many in the media) up here cheerily point to long lines while marveling about all the wonderful enthusiasm and the hardiness of our people, when most of those long lines, delays and abrupt closures could and should be prevented. For example…
If Fulton County can do it, so can we.
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An election day unlike any other
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* NBC 5…
With the election nearing, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker warned voters of “misinformation” that could be posted to social media, urging state residents to consult reputable sources for information in the days ahead.
The governor warned residents from getting their information on social media networks like Facebook and Twitter in the coming days, and to instead consult local election authorities and reputable news outlets for the latest updates on election results. […]
As those votes are counted, Pritzker urged voters to be patient and to be skeptical of claims made on social media, suggesting that voters could potentially stay off of those platforms in the coming days.
“Look at a variety of news outlets if you’d like, but be wary of claims you see on social media,” he said. “So check before you repost anything, or better yet, you may want to take the next few days off from social media. Facebook and Twitter will still be there in the morning.”
* Also…
Observers say foreign enemies may seek to agitate an already divided electorate. Because many people have voted by mail, presidential election results aren’t expected to be completely totalled Tuesday night.
Pritzker said hostile agents posing as Americans could produce false information they hope will be shared over social-media platforms.
“They would like nothing more than to promote conspiracy theories and sow discontent,” the governor said Monday, as he gave his daily coronavirus briefing.
* In other news…
Meanwhile, Gov. J.B. Pritzker said that National Guard troops staging at McCormick Place on Monday would be on standby if needed.
”Out of an abundance of caution, we’ve made sure that our National Guard is simply in a state of readiness,” Pritzker said.
“We want to make sure that the cities, counties that call upon us for help from the state of Illinois that we have those resources available to them … we simply have them at a state of readiness in case they are asked to help.”
The city’s Office of Emergency Management and Communications on Monday said in a tweet: “The City has not made any calls to deploy the National Guard in Chicago. Similar to past emergency preparedness plans, the State has stationed personnel at McCormick Place to be ready to respond if needed, however, there are currently no plans for them to be deployed.”
And the National Guard on Monday also tweeted: “Obviously, people can see Illinois National Guard trucks and troops moving. This is to be ready to respond if needed, but we have not been given any missions. We, along with most other Illinoisans and Americans, hope we are not needed.”
* And…
As Election Day nears, Illinois State Police has been taking steps to ensure public safety during and after the election.
Director Brendan Kelly said along with the state Department of Homeland Security and the Illinois National Guard, ISP has been planning for months plans to safeguard the election and keep Illinois communities safe during the aftermath.
“The Illinois State Police will support state, local and federal partners as needed with threats to public officials, bomb threats, suspicious packages and other serious criminal investigations that could be related to elections,” Kelly said.
Kelly said state police have been taking part in readiness exercises with state and local partners. Terrorism intelligence is monitoring possible issues.
“Since its inception, the Statewide Terrorism and Intelligence Center, or STIC, has supported elected officials with information sharing and analysis of security events,” Kelly said. “In collaboration with our federal partners, STIC serves as a hub for sharing election-related matters.”
Kelly said state police will have high-visibility patrols during the election period to help local law enforcement with any issues at polling places. He said the state agency will provide extra personnel if needed.
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* Gov. Pritzker was asked yet again yesterday whether he was considering another stay at home order…
We’re not currently looking at a stay at home order. I mean, obviously, that’s something that lurks in the background. You know, if we believe that these tiered mitigations ultimately are ineffective. If people choose not to wear masks and if the spread of the virus continues unabated, and that kind of community spread, we would obviously have to consider more significant mitigations.
Earlier, Pritzker spoke about the different levels of IDPH mitigation. Click here to see the three state tiers.
* Later, Amy Jacobson of WIND said that “a pretty reliable source told us that the plan is to move the whole state back to Phase 3 after the election.” She asked if that was true…
That’s not a plan. No. Obviously, that’s an option, I guess. But whatever you heard is not accurate. I have not had any discussions about that.
I’m so old I remember when the prevailing conspiracy theory was this would all somehow disappear after the election.
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* Yvette Shields at the Bond Buyer outlines the stakes if the “Fair Tax” fails at the ballot or if it passes…
Some market participants have warned that the state’s general obligation bond ratings — all at the lowest notch above speculative grade, with negative outlooks — will fall to junk if the amendment fails.
“It is hard to handicap the probability of Illinois getting downgraded before the end of the year since a lot will depend upon the approval of Illinois’s progressive tax ballot measure” as well as the outcome of the presidential race and the contest for control of the U.S. Senate contests, Vikram Rai, head of Citi’s municipal strategy group, wrote in a Municipal Weekly report in October.
“We expect the progressive tax ballot measure to be approved by voters, but if it doesn’t, we believe a downgrade is almost guaranteed,” Citi said. “If the progressive tax ballot measure passes but Republicans retain control of the White House and Senate, the outlook for downgrade is nebulous, essentially a toss-up.”
If the progressive ballot measure passes and Democrats take over the White House and the Senate, Illinois may be able to avoid a downgrade based on the expectation of more generous fiscal aid flowing from the federal government.
Citi estimates a 50 basis point widening in Illinois spreads after the first rating agency junks the state, with subsequent agency actions not having an impact.
Thoughts?
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Early morning election day precinct reports
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* What are you seeing out there? You can also tell us what you’ve been seeing the past few days at early voting sites. Don’t forget to give us an idea where you are, when you were there, etc. Thanks.
* Related…
* Tip lines allow voters to report intimidation, extremism at the polls: “We’ve seen online organizing activities of extremists turn into real life violence,” said David Goldenberg, executive director of the Anti-Defamation League’s Midwest region. “And that’s why all of us need to take this seriously.”
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* Illinois State Board of Elections…
With record-setting vote-by-mail volume in the 2020 general election, the Illinois State Board of Elections advises media and voters to be aware that unofficial vote totals reported on election night may change significantly in the two weeks to follow.
As of Nov. 2, Illinois’ 108 local election authorities reported up to 587,000 mail ballots that had not yet been returned by voters. While some of these ballots will arrive in time to be processed and included in election night reporting, many are likely to arrive after Election Day and be added to unofficial totals. Illinois allows ballots that are postmarked no later than Election Day to arrive and be counted for two weeks afterward, so totals could change through Nov. 17.
The Illinois State Board of Elections will regularly update the statewide totals for mail ballots on its website, but does not report any election results until it certifies the vote on Dec. 4. Unofficial results before certification may be obtained from local election authorities.
The following background information may be useful to news media covering election results in the two weeks to come:
• As of Nov.2, Illinois election authorities had sent 2.35 million ballots to voters and 1.76 million of those ballots had been returned by voters. (The complete report, including totals from individual election authorities, is attached following this release.)
• With 1.83 million in-person early votes cast as of Nov. 2, Illinois had cast nearly 3.6 million votes before Election Day.
• In 2016, voters cast 370,740 votes by mail and 1,520,694 in-person early votes, for a total of 1,891,434 votes cast before election day.
• Illinois has more than 8.3 million registered voters for the 2020 general election, which is an all- time record. Unofficial pre-election reports indicate that 43 percent of registered voters have already voted.
• The constitutional amendment on this year’s ballot can pass if it receives 60 percent approval from voters who vote on the question or a simple majority of affirmative votes among all ballots cast in the election. Because of this formula, the fate of the amendment may not be known on election night even when accounting for mail ballots not yet returned.
• As mail ballots arrive in the days after Nov. 3, it is likely that close races may see leads change as results are reported. Reporters should check with local election authorities for updated vote counts and make readers, viewers and listeners aware of why these numbers are changing.
• The certification schedule after Election Day is as follows:
o Nov.17:Local election authorities must complete counting of mail and provisional ballots
o Nov. 24: Local election authorities must transmit results to the State Board of Elections
o Dec. 4: State Board of Elections certifies the vote and publishes official results
• From 1976-2016, turnout in presidential elections in Illinois has averaged 73 percent. If statewide turnout for this election matches 2016’s 70.56 percent, 5.87 million votes will be cast.
• Voters needing assistance locating polling places or with other voting-related questions or concerns on Election Day can call the State Board of Elections at (217) 782-4141 or (312) 814- 6440. The Board of Elections website, elections.il.gov, will feature a special landing page for voter assistance beginning at midnight on Nov. 3.
The attachment is here.
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Everyone has their own priorities
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From today’s press conference…
Q: Governor, can I just ask one more question? It’s about the American flag, it’s about the American flag because there’s a man who’s a World War II vet, he’s also a Korean War vet, he wants to know why the flag is still at half-staff. I know you ordered all the municipalities to put it to half-staff in March. It’s been eight months now. When can we see it at full-staff? [crosstalk about something to do with election day]
A: We’ve lost more than three 9/11’s in nine months. More than three 9/11’s. More than 9,700 people have passed away. We are losing dozens of people every single day. So, yes, I think during this pandemic, I think until we get through this pandemic, I think it’s the right thing to do to recognize the terrible loss that so many people, who can’t even go to a funeral sometimes for a relative or a friend, this is one way that we can honor all of them.
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COVID-19 roundup
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Click here for a PowerPoint presentation that the governor intends to talk about today.
* Hal Dardick at the Tribune…
As Illinois finally nears its goal of employing 3,800 people to track down and warn the contacts of people infected with COVID-19, experts say that number may no longer be sufficient to help control the virus.
That’s because contact tracing — which aims to reduce disease spread by identifying and isolating people who could be infectious — works best when infection rates are relatively low. The state is seeing record numbers of daily confirmed cases.
“Contact tracing is not a silver bullet, and it can be overwhelmed very quickly with an expanding epidemic, because cases will appear and transmission will occur much more quickly than a health department can hire contact tracers,” said Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “So, there is kind of a threshold at which contact tracing becomes much less effective.
“And so, what we need to do in those cases is use other interventions like enforcing mask use and physical distancing and shutting down indoor areas.”
Watson is part of a team at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and National Public Radio that has tracked the status of contact tracing in the United States. They concluded in a recent report that once a state is logging more than 10 new COVID-19 cases daily for every 100,000 residents, contact tracers become overwhelmed.
Illinois has quadruple that number of new cases per 100K residents.
* Beware antigen test results…
As rapid tests are becoming more widely available, delivering results in minutes in doctor’s offices, nursing homes, schools and even the White House, officials warn of a significant undercount, blurring the spread.
Officials say that antigen tests, which are faster than polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests but less able to detect low levels of the virus, are an important tool for limiting the spread. But they caution that with inconsistent public reporting, the case undercount may worsen.
“We want to be sure that we’re not now saying, ‘there’s no disease,’ when there is lots of disease. All that’s happened is that the science with which we identify it has evolved,” said Janet Hamilton, the executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, the group that helps the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention define cases of the coronavirus.
* Tribune live blog headlines…
Chicago’s jazz clubs struggle to stay afloat
National Guard arriving Monday at some Indiana nursing homes hard hit by COVID-19 cases
COVID-19 restrictions take effect in east-central Illinois
Chicago health officials urge people to get flu shots
As the pandemic wears on, more working moms are forced to quit their jobs, and the impact of the ‘shecession’ could be long-lasting
* Sun-Times live blog headlines…
Surging COVID-19 numbers spark Election Day concerns for polling places
COVID-19 recruiting tips for high school basketball players
Hospitals strain to find new nurses as COVID-19 rates rise
10 more chief judge’s employees test positive for the coronavirus, including 7 at juvenile detention building
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A look ahead
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I think Dan Vock is mostly right about what would happen if House Speaker Michael Madigan picks up a significant number of seats tomorrow…
It could make it easier for Democrats to legislate in the upcoming session. The COVID-19 pandemic has strained Illinois’s already precarious financial situation, and keeping the budget in the black next year could require unpopular program cuts or even tax hikes. In the past, Madigan has often sought Republican votes for political cover when passing politically contentious measures. But Republicans blame Madigan and Democrats for Illinois’s troubles already, and more Democrats in the House would give GOP lawmakers less leverage in those negotiations.
Politically, adding more Democrats in the suburbs could shore up the party’s strength at a time when Democrats have been losing seats outside of the Chicago metro area.
More Democrats in the House would give Madigan a freer hand when it comes time next year to redraw the legislative district lines for the next decade. There is widespread concern among Democrats that this year’s Census will undercount the number of residents who are Black, Hispanic, immigrants, low-income or otherwise hard to reach. If so, it would sap Democrats’ strength in legislative bodies like the Illinois House. But if Madigan’s Democrats have more territory to work with, they can cede some seats while still holding a commanding majority.
Adding Democrats to the Illinois House would also give Madigan an easier path to round up the 60 votes he needs to continue as speaker of the House. Madigan has been speaker, except for a two-year stint in the 1990s, since 1983, and it seems unlikely that he would lose that post soon. But eight House Democrats have already called for him to resign his leadership post, and another seven have said he should step down if the allegations in the ComEd corruption investigation are true. If all of them defected, Madigan presumably would only have 59 votes for speaker. Adding more Democrats to the chamber would give him more possible votes to pick up.
And this is most certainly correct…
Finally, Springfield insiders speculate that weakening the Republican caucus could also be a form of political payback by the speaker, after Republican Leader Jim Durkin initiated a process to try to remove Madigan from the House chamber over the allegations in the ComEd investigation. The power company admitted in federal court that it arranged for jobs, contracts and payoffs to people in Madigan’s circle in order to gain favor with the speaker. But federal prosecutors have not charged Madigan with a crime.
But a question that isn’t often asked is: What happens if Madigan’s gains are on the “Meh” side?
Discuss.
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This reminds me of a story…
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* One day when I was a kid, my mom dropped her (then) four sons off at Sunday school and dispatched herself to a local diner to quietly sip a cup of coffee before church.
All of a sudden, in walks her four boys who proceeded to noisily join her at her table, unceremoniously ending her rare and precious moment to herself. Unbeknownst to all of us, the time had rolled back an hour the night before and Sunday school hadn’t yet begun. So, rather than find something else to do, we decided to go hang out with our beloved mother. Thankfully, my mom has a great sense of humor and we all laughed about the mistake. No blood, no foul.
* I bring this up because I yet again forgot to change the timestamp on the blog over the weekend. I can’t really adjust it now because doing so will mess up comments, so I’ll get to it tonight.
Sorry, but it kinda runs in the family.
Also, I love you, Mom. I remember that day more than any Sunday school class I ever attended. Thanks for being you.
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* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 6,222 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 20 additional deaths.
Champaign County: 1 male 60s
Cook County: 1 female 50s, 1 female 60s, 1 male 60s, 2 females 70s, 2 males 70s, 2 males 80s, 1 female 0ver 100
DuPage County: 1 male 80s
Iroquois County: 1 male 80s
Lake County: 1 male 80s
Mason County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 90s
Monroe County: 1 female 90s, 1 female over 100
Piatt County: 1 female 60s
Will County: 1 male 90s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 423,502 cases, including 9,810 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 68,118 specimens for a total 7,876,421. As of last night, 3,371 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 722 patients were in the ICU and 298 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 26 – November 1 is 8.1%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 26, 2020 – November 1, 2020 is 9.7%.
Case positivity and test positivity rate are both relevant and offer insight into the bigger COVID-19 picture. Case positivity helps us understand whether changes in the number of confirmed cases is due to more testing or due to more infections. Whereas, test positivity accounts for repeated testing and helps us understand how the virus is spreading in the population over time.
*All data are provisional and will change. In order to rapidly report COVID-19 information to the public, data are being reported in real-time. Information is constantly being entered into an electronic system and the number of cases and deaths can change as additional information is gathered. For health questions about COVID-19, call the hotline at 1-800-889-3931 or email dph.sick@illinois.gov.
* Sunday…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 6,980 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 35 additional deaths.
Alexander County: 1 female 70s
Bureau County: 1 female 90s
Cook County: 4 females 70s, 4 males 70s, 1 female 80s, 2 males 80s, 1 female 90s, 2 males 90s, 1 male over 100
DuPage County: 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s
Henry County: 1 male 60s, 1 male 80s
Lake County: 1 female 70s, 1 female 90s
Macon County: 1 male 50s, 1 female 80s
Madison County: 1 male 70s
Montgomery County: 1 female 90s
Peoria County: 1 male 80s
Pike County: 1 male 90s
Sangamon County: 1 female 90s
Will County: 1 male 60s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s
Woodford County: 2 females 80s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 417,280 cases, including 9,792 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 78,458 specimens for a total 7,808,303. As of last night, 3,294 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 692 patients were in the ICU and 284 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 25 – October 31 is 8.0%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 25, 2020 – October 31, 2020 is 9.4%.
* Saturday…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 7,899 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 46 additional deaths.
Adams County: 1 male 70s
Boone County: 1 male 60s
Bureau County: 1 male 80s
Carroll County: 1 male 80s
Cook County: 1 female 40s, 1 female 50s, 2 females 60s, 3 males 60s, 1 female 70s, 5 males 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s, 1 female 100+
DuPage County: 1 female 80s
Kane County: 1 male 50s, 1 male 70s, 2 females 80s, 1 female 90s
Lake County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 90s
LaSalle County: 1 female 60s
Macon County: 1 male 90s
Madison County: 1 female 80s
Marion County: 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s
Mason County: 1 male 80s, 1 female 100+
McLean County: 1 female 80s
Monroe County: 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s
Sangamon County: 1 female 80s
Vermilion County: 1 female 60s
Wayne County: 1 female 90s
Whiteside County: 1 female 70s
Will County: 1 female 60s, 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s
Winnebago County: 1 male 70s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 410,300 cases, including 9,757 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 92,636 specimens for a total 7,729,845. As of last night, 3,228 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 680 patients were in the ICU and 290 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 24 – October 30 is 7.5%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 24, 2020 – October 30, 2020 is 9.0%.
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* Tribune…
An hourlong virtual rally in support of a proposed state constitutional amendment to change Illinois’ income tax system to a graduated-rate tax was sidetracked Friday night by Cook County President Toni Preckwinkle delivering a lengthy pitch for State’s Attorney Kim Foxx’s reelection and for voters to reject two judges up for retention.
She only spoke about Foxx for like two minutes.
* Hannah Meisel…
In the dueling campaigns for and against Gov. JB Pritzker’s signature plan to implement a graduated income tax structure in Illinois are the echoes of past attempts at tax reform.
The players have changed and the policy proposals are different, but what remains constant are both Illinois’ underlying structural revenue imbalance and the element of mistrust of Springfield politicians.
The Nov. 3 vote to amend Illinois’ constitution and allow for a graduated income tax — instead of the flat income tax structure the state has had since 1969 — is not just the culmination of Pritzker’s three-year-long campaign for the change he vowed as a gubernatorial candidate, but also the reverberation of decades of fiscal policy and messaging.
Trips back to the 1990s, the 1970s and the 1930s may be instructive.
It’s a really good piece (of course), so go take a look. You might learn something.
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Illinois recovery barely perceptible
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Institute of Government and Public Affairs…
The U of I Flash Index in October continued its slow, steady recovery from the low point of the post-COVID-19 period. The October index went up to 95.6 from its 95.1 level in September, but the economy is still well below its strength prior to the pandemic.
The impact of the recent resurgence of the virus is not captured in the October data. “The October Flash Index obviously comes at the cusp of potential changes related to the election and the virus. We could see continued, gradual improvement, or another drop in the index, depending on the availability of a vaccine or the possibility of further mandated business closures,” said University of Illinois economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the monthly index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs. “The short-term impact of the election will likely be less dramatic than many people believe since the economy has a momentum that is difficult to change.”
The Illinois unemployment rate continued its decline from 11.0 percent to 10.2 percent over the last month, but it is still 2.3 percentage points above the national level, but 6.2 percentage points below its April highpoint. After adjusting for inflation, sales and corporate tax receipts were up from the same month last year while individual income tax receipts were down slightly, continuing the pattern of last month. See the full Flash Index Archive.
The Flash Index is normally a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through October 31, 2020. Ad hoc adjustments have been made to deal with the timing of the tax receipts resulting from state and Federal changes in payment dates beginning in March.
Accompanying graph…
The Illinois Flash Index was stuck in the mid 90s for about two years after the 9/11 attacks. That stretch pretty much killed all the budget progress made during the previous decade and we haven’t recovered since.
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* From Saturday’s Decatur Herald & Review…
HSHS St. Mary’s Hospital and Decatur Memorial Hospital have suspended visitors for inpatient care effective Saturday due to the high number of COVID-19 cases throughout Central Illinois.
“COVID-19 is spreading throughout our community. Many people may have COVID-19, and could be contagious before they are showing symptoms,” said Dr. Raj Govindaiah, chief medical officer of Memorial Health System. “Our mission is to improve the health of the people and communities we serve, and this policy will allow us to do that.”
Exceptions will be allowed with approval in areas such as the emergency department, obstetrics, pediatrics, certain outpatient procedures and surgeries, as well as for those who may be in end-of-life care or to support a patient with an intellectual disability.
* Today’s Decatur Herald & Review…
Everyone’s East End Grill restaurant parked within the confines of Decatur Airport is now taxiing to an enviable position: it can cheerfully ignore Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s orders to shutdown indoor dining service starting Monday.
That’s because the new, stricter shut down rules for this region aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19 don’t apply to eateries that are deemed part of essential businesses, like airports. […]
He got no arguments from his Sunday morning, post-church dining crowd. Cyndi Haynes and her husband Butch were both enjoying fried breakfasts they said tasted as good as the food’s looks and aroma suggested, and were also deeply satisfied with the attitude of their host.
The construct of that restaurant story is weird. The business has an exemption because of its location, so it doesn’t have to “ignore” anything except, of course, the growing problem at the town’s hospitals.
Anyway, maybe also send that reporter over to a hospital commissary to see what the docs have to say?
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* SJ-R…
Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder has called for an emergency city council meeting Wednesday evening to discuss COVID-19 and the state mitigation measures that went into effect Sunday, which include the suspension of indoor dining and bar service. […]
But Langfelder — worried about the impact the shutdown could have on local restaurants — has been openly critical of the added restrictions. He has advocated in recent weeks for a “stair-step” approach that would allow indoor dining to remain open during mitigations. […]
Twenty-two restaurant owners from the county filed a lawsuit Friday in Sangamon County Circuit Court against Gov. JB Pritzker seeking relief from the order.
Others followed the governor’s order and closed for indoor service. And a new Facebook group called “Support Responsible Dining in Springfield IL” was created on Sunday to encourage people to support the businesses following Pritzker’s order. The page already has more than 300 likes as of Monday morning.
I went over this with subscribers earlier today, so I’ll just let that stand. Suffice to say that a Sangamon County judge already dealt with this issue back in May. The full list of restaurants filing the suit is here.
From the attorney general’s office…
The plaintiffs have not served the defendants or sent us a copy of what they have filed.
* Meanwhile…
The City of Springfield received a $799,000 federal CARES Act grant at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of that, $200,000 was set aside for small business grants, but to date, none of those have been distributed.
Extra community development block grants were also planned for low-interest small business loans, but Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder said a public hearing must be held before those are acted upon. […]
Another CARES Act grant in the amount of $700,000 is also coming to Springfield, but how that money will be spent is set to be determined at a public meeting at 3:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 4, in the Municipal Building. The meeting will also be available to view over Zoom.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the Sangamon County Department of Public Health…
There is currently a long line for COVID-19 testing in our SCDPH parking lot. Please use Singer Ave. to Shackelford Dr. (behind JC Penny) when getting in line. Any one who is in the testing line by 5:00pm will be tested today.
COVID-19 testing will also be offered tomorrow from 9:00am-5:00pm in our parking lot, 2833 South Grand Avenue East Springfield, IL 62703.
Seems bad.
*** UPDATE 2 *** I asked SIU School of Medicine for a statement about Mayor Langfelder’s comments…
This is a difficult time for public health, municipal and business leaders. We know that all groups have the health and well-being of all at the top of their priorities. We now face very difficult situations for which there are no easy choices, as we simultaneously endeavor to save lives and promote our livelihood. These issues are complex and multifactorial.
The SIU School of Medicine rejects the simplicity of a false dichotomy that pits public health against economic well-being. We can and should protect both by following the best medical and economic evidence and the public health guidelines designed to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. We urge compliance with mitigation strategies while we all engage in active, multilateral dialog between the leaders of business, government entities, academic institutions, and community organizations. Together we can strive for the best actions for our citizens and communities.”
Jerry Kruse, MD, MSPH
Dean and Provost of SIU School of Medicine
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Question of the day
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* What are your election day plans and how are they different from previous years?
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Today’s must-read
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Katlyn Smith at the Daily Herald talked to several suburban medical professionals and put together a really strong story about what’s going on. It’s not nearly as long as our usual “must-reads,” but it’s no less important…
As Illinois sets another single-day record for COVID-19 infections, hospitals are preparing to feel the strain of a fall and winter surge after weeks of steadily rising patient numbers.
Some medical centers are tightening visitor restrictions. Hospital administrators are hoping they won’t have to postpone elective surgeries again. But national trends are leaving suburban hospital officials anxious.
“I am extremely worried about staff,” said Dr. Sanjeeb Khatua, chief physician executive and COVID-19 incident commander at Edward-Elmhurst Health.
Again, go read the whole thing.
* Related…
* Southern Illinois Healthcare loses one of its own front-line employees to COVID-19 as hospitalizations increase: Within days, her health rapidly declined. Her lungs collapsed and were bleeding, her liver enlarged, her kidneys shut down and she went into respiratory arrest, according to her best friend, Dottie Nikolich, of Christopher. “She suffered greatly with this,” Nikolich said.
* Dr. Anthony Fauci warns US faces ‘a whole lot of hurt’ this winter due to surging COVID-19 cases
* October Coronavirus Cases Climb In Oak Lawn - COVID-19 cases are beginning to surge in parts of suburban Cook County as the state initiates further precautions to help stop the spread.
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* To sum this up, if the Fair Tax fails and President Trump is reelected and/or the Republicans maintain control of the US Senate, and a flat tax hike can’t be achieved by early January, then the state is heading to the Fed’s window…
Illinois, the only U.S. state to borrow from the Federal Reserve, will likely have to tap the central bank again to help close its $4.1 billion deficit if federal aid doesn’t come through and voters reject a ballot measure to raise taxes on the rich, according to Governor J.B. Pritzker.
The cash-strapped state sold $1.2 billion in short-term debt in June to the Fed to help close its fiscal 2020 budget gap. While Pritzker is optimistic that stimulus will arrive at some point and voters next month will approve his signature agenda item to end Illinois’s flat income tax, he’s prepared to use the Fed’s Municipal Liquidity Facility, a lifeline for state and local governments, for a second time.
“If there is no support from the federal government or there’s no fair tax, and so given that situation, we would certainly, for some of that, we would need to go to the MLF borrowing facility, but we would also implement cuts,” Pritzker, a billionaire Democrat, said in an interview. He’s asked state agencies to submit proposals for 5 percent spending cuts this year and another 10 percent for fiscal 2022.
Illinois isn’t alone in its woes. States are facing about a $200 billion revenue shortfall from fiscal 2020 through 2022, according to Moody’s Analytics, but Illinois has little cushion. The state has more than $8 billion of unpaid bills, about $137 billion of unfunded pension liabilities, and its rainy day fund has $858,873. Its borrowing penalty is the highest among states tracked by Bloomberg, with its credit rating only one step above junk.
Thoughts?
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* Lynn Sweet…
With Illinois not in play in the presidential contest, Gov. J.B. Pritzker has emerged as one of the biggest donors to the Democratic Party of Wisconsin — in a crucial battleground state that could help tip the White House to Donald Trump or Joe Biden. […]
On the federal side, $2,256,300 to the Senate Majority PAC and various giving to help elect House Democrats: $256,300 total to Nancy Pelosi Victory Fund; $1 million to the House Majority PAC and $259,100 total to the Cheri Bustos Victory Fund. Bustos is the chair of the Democratic House political operation.
Pritzker also gave $1.5 million to Priorities USA Action, a main pro-Biden super PAC, and $721,300 to the Biden Victory Fund, which was dispersed to a variety of swing state Democratic parties.
On the state party front, Pritzker gave $250,000 to the Michigan Democratic State Central Committee and $2,525,000 to the Democratic Party of Wisconsin Federal Account.
Quentin Fulks, Pritzker’s top political adviser said, “Wisconsin is the closest battleground state in the Midwest” and Pritzker “wanted to ensure that Trump did not win there.”
Emphasis added.
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* The Hill…
The top super PAC backing House Democrats is dropping more than $1 million into a last-minute media blitz defending the chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in a sign that her campaign for a new term is not guaranteed.
The House Majority PAC has reported spending almost $1 million on airtime and another $30,000 on digital advertising on behalf of Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), who heads the DCCC, according to filings made with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Democratic sources in Washington and Illinois said two Republican polls released earlier this month that showed Bustos only narrowly ahead of her Republican rival, attorney Esther Joy King, were catalysts for the late spending blitz. […]
“She’s calling everyone in [Democratic] politics in Illinois to make sure nothing goes sideways. Call time, Zoom fundraisers, the works,” said one Illinois Democratic strategist. “She’s spooked.”
“Washington Republicans have spent nearly $1.5 million in attack ads against Cheri because she represents a district Donald Trump won and is leading the strategy to keep the Speaker’s gavel out of Kevin McCarthy’s hands,” Denise Mousouris, Bustos’s campaign manager, said in an email.
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What’s Ken Griffin’s endgame?
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
Chicago billionaire Ken Griffin has spent $53.75 million to convince Illinoisans to reject a proposed graduated income tax this year.
Illinois currently has a flat income tax. Everyone pays the same rate, rich or poor. Gov. J.B. Pritzker campaigned heavily on increasing taxes on upper-income voters and followed through by convincing the General Assembly to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot. The billionaire Democrat has since spent $56.5 million of his own money to promote the change.
Pritzker is regularly asked about his proposal, but aside from a couple of public statements, Griffin has been quiet. So, I’ve been asking for an interview for weeks, but to no avail.
Griffin’s apparently willing to let the ads he’s paying for speak for themselves. […]
I really wanted to ask him about his endgame, though.
Griffin backed Gov. Bruce Rauner to the hilt. Rauner’s plan was to create a massive crisis in order to force serious structural change. So, is Griffin now trying to create a new crisis by shutting off a revenue stream? Is this a way to starve the budget in order to force the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to address some sort of new pension reforms?
Go read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
For generations now, Chicago has had its own separate set of state laws for just about every topic under the sun. The city’s mayor is allowed to appoint the school board, Chicago has its own “working cash fund” law, the state’s mayoral veto law does not apply to the city and Chicago has a unique exemption allowing it to deduct money from worker paychecks.
From big to archaic, the list is almost endless.
So, when you’ve grown accustomed to doing it your own way for a century or so, you may start thinking you’re a special case in literally everything. And that seems to be what happened last week.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot told reporters she hoped to change Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s mind about imposing the same public health mitigations on the city as the state has imposed on several other regions, including suburban Cook County, and said the two ought to be “in lockstep” on any “new restrictions.”
The mitigations mainly involve shutting down indoor dining and booze-drinking at taverns.
The moment to address this, of course, was months ago when Pritzker laid out the new plan and the boundaries of the new public health districts. Chicago was given its own district back in mid-July (ironically, at the behest of the suburbs), but not its own rules. The city, in fact, imposed even tighter restrictions on restaurants, taverns, parks, beaches, etc. than the rest of the state, which is allowed under Pritzker plan.
But the city and the mayor have known all along that local governments cannot impose looser regulations than the state’s.
And, really, how would DuPage County respond if Chicago was given a special pass on indoor restaurant dining? Not well, I assure you. And Winnebago County denizens would be rightly upset if Chicagoans could drink inside their local taverns and they could not.
Complying with the mayor’s demands would undermine the governor everywhere else in the state. And he’s got enough of that problem as it is.
Look, we know that state mitigation works if regions stick to the program.
Why? Simple.
The Metro East area as well as the region encompassing Will and Kankakee counties both eventually worked their way out of the stricter protocols. Those successes alone should be enough to prove that the spread is slowed when indoor dining and drinking are curtailed. But coverage follows conflict, so news consumers aren’t getting that message. Instead, it’s all about disagreements between political leaders and the furious anger of the hospitality industry.
But both of those previously successful regions are now right back in mitigation. Restaurants and taverns that survived the first mitigation round are now having to go through this nightmare all over again. Businesses in first-time mitigation and those in regions about to be subjected to the limits look at their colleagues and are justly terrified for their futures.
While there’s no doubt that indoor dining, indoor tavern drinking, etc. do, indeed, spread the virus, people should be forgiven for thinking it’s unfair to put the onus completely on those specific businesses — particularly at a time when the federal government is showing absolutely zero interest in helping the businesses cope and the main complainers about Illinois’ rules (other than Lightfoot) are unwilling to vigorously demand federal action.
In order to make this more “fair” and spread out the pain instead of focusing the responsibility, everyday people would be required to do their own part.
Chicago’s contact tracing program shows that “small social gatherings” are major contributors to the spread. “(W)here we’re seeing the greatest challenges is in people’s homes, in social settings that are not public,” Lightfoot said.
But if you think people are upset about the restaurant and tavern situation, try ordering them to avoid all contact with their friends and families.
Yikes.
So, the choices are between ginning up either a horrible backlash with horrible economic consequences or a horrific and widespread public backlash that could conceivably jeopardize everything. Or let it all burn, and Pritzker is not going to do that.
So, “horrible” seems the only do-able choice.
And, make no mistake, without help from D.C., it will truly get horrible for a lot of very good people.
* Related…
* Two McHenry County judges deny separate lawsuits seeking restraining order against Pritzker’s indoor dining ban
* All 11 IDPH regions under IDPH mitigation rules as of November 4
* Springfield has distributed no small business relief grants to date
* Enforcing mitigations from Pritzker. How much power does Mayor Langfelder truly hold?
* Springfield bar, restaurant owners uncertain about future as mitigations begin Sunday
* East Peoria Will Not Enforce New COVID Restrictions, Mayor Says
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Open thread
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My sentiments exactly…
Keep it local, keep it polite and have some fun. Thanks.
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