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More pressure on Oberweis, and Ozinga’s uphill climb

Friday, Apr 25, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* RealClearPolitics takes a look at some Illinois congressional races. Here’s one…

llinois 14: Former Speaker Dennis Hastert was replaced by Democrat Bill Foster in a special election in early March, and a rematch in November will again pit Foster against Republican Jim Oberweis, a candidate many in his own party blamed for losing the seat. Both candidates spent more than $3 million in their bids, and both have a long way to go to rebuild their war chests. Foster had $262,000 in the bank after March, while Oberweis had $132,000 lying around.

In three previous contests, Oberweis has had to largely self-fund, and if donors don’t kick in contributions now, he will either defer to another candidate or start writing checks again. Watch next quarter’s report to see how serious Oberweis will be this Fall in a district that, despite the Obama-mania, McCain should carry.

I’m told House Republican Leader John Boehner said at a recent event that he wants Oberweis out of the race. Boehner’s campaign office did not return a call asking for comment. I’m not sure Oberweis will ever drop out, but the pressure continues.

* They also looked at the 11th…

[Likely GOP candidate Martin Ozinga] will face State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, who has already raised $861,000 and still has $673,000 left in cash. Not only will Ozinga have catching up to do, but national Democrats have already hammered him for his business dealings. If Ozinga doesn’t respond by defining himself soon, Democrats will remain strong favorites to pick up this seat based largely southwest of Chicago.

* Halvorson has her problems, but Ozinga surprised some observers by saying recently that he will limit the spending of his own money…

Part of Ozinga’s appeal to GOP leaders is that he has enough money to pay for his campaign, but Tuesday, Ozinga said he would not spend more than $350,000 of his own money—the federal benchmark that would allow Halvorson to ask donors for more than the $2,300 individual limit.

But Ozinga said it was philosophical strategy, not political strategy, that persuaded him not to dip into his personal account if he is chosen as the nominee. He said he intends to generate broad-based support, including friends and business associates from all over the country, which would demonstrate to voters he has the political will to win the seat.

It’s not a bad concept if it works. But that will be tough if the analysts continue to place this R seat in the Likely D category.

Also, it would help if he tried to get a grip on his ~~campaign staff~~. [Language warning]

…Adding…. It turns out that the comments mentioned immediately above appear to be coming from Ozinga’s business, not the campaign site.

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Cook thinks it’s a tossup

Wednesday, Mar 5, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The venerated Cook Political Report changed its rating yesterday on the 14th Congressional District special election between Jim Oberweis and Bill Foster from “lean Republican” to “tossup.” Here’s part of the explanation…

Four days out, the special election to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of former Speaker Dennis Hastert is too close to call… most agree Foster owns the late momentum.

The national GOP’s spending illustrates the party’s deep concern about where things stand in this pricey exurban Chicago district, which has a PVI score of R+5. As of the most recent FEC filings, the NRCC had spent over $1.1 million in independent expenditures – close to one fifth of its cash on hand - against Foster. By contrast, the DCCC had spent just over half that sum against Oberweis.

One Republican familiar with Illinois politics characterized the match up as a “race to the basement.” Indeed, whereas previous electoral experience is an asset for most candidates, Oberweis’s past unsuccessful bids are now coming back to haunt him. […]

Republican insiders also worry that Oberweis has not done enough to confront Foster directly on conservative base-motivating issues such as illegal immigration, and that an ad taking Foster’s debate comments out of context has backfired.

The Obama endorsement ad of Foster, the Tribune’s Foster endorsement, which included some harsh comments about Oberweis, and the Saturday voting are also cited as reasons for the switch. But they note the strong Republican tendencies of the district as Oberweis’ saving grace.

* But here’s something Cook may have missed…

Northern Illinois University, boasting more than 25,000 students, falls within the 14th Congressional District and students registered to vote in DeKalb could have a say in deciding whether Democrat Bill Foster or Republican Jim Oberweis will fill Hastert’s seat through January 2009. But, NIU’s spring break begins Friday and many students will be out of town on vacation and won’t be around to cast their vote in the special Saturday election. […]

Students did have the opportunity to vote early through Monday, but early voting numbers are way down across DeKalb County compared to the Feb. 5 primaries, according to Sharon Holmes, the county clerk. They have received only about one third of the total early and absentee votes they got for the Feb. 5 elections. [emphasis added]

I don’t know how it is now, but back in the day NIU students tended to go home to Chicago or the suburbs on the weekends anyway. Thursday was the big bar night. But spring break means the place will completely empty out.

That might make a difference if this ends up being a close race.

Thoughts?

…Adding… If this alleged ugliness is true and it somehow finds its way into the mainstream before Saturday then things could take a quick turn for the worse. Oy.

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