For the first time, they also included “leaners” in the poll. In other words, those who say they are undecided are asked whom they are leaning towards. The margin narrows a wee bit…
Brady: 49%
Quinn: 41%
Some Other Candidate 3%
Not sure 7%
It really would be nice if Rasmussen started polling the other candidates in this race.
This race now moves from Leans GOP to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
From far away, maybe it looks that way. I still don’t see it up close, though.
Back to the pollster…
Brady receives support from 85% of Republicans, while Quinn is favored by just 68% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Brady holds a commanding 61% to 17% lead.
Quinn, who took over from impeached governor Rod Blogojevich more than 18 months ago, continues to face a $13-billion state deficit, one of the country’s worst. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of voters in the state know someone who is out of work and looking for a job. Forty-three percent (43%) say the job market is worse than a year ago, while only 15% say its better.
Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Illinois voters approve of the job Quinn is doing as governor. Sixty percent (60%), however, disapprove of his job performance.
Brady is viewed Very Favorably by 19% of the state’s voters and Very Unfavorably by 17%. Quinn earns Very Favorable marks from 10% and Very Unfavorable reviews from 31%.
Both candidates are well-known in the state, but at this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
* A check of the crosstabs shows Quinn doing quite well with African-Americans. The Illinois Chamber, you may recall, claimed that once those black voter numbers firmed up for Quinn, this could be a 5-6 point race. But with 75 percent black support, it’s still a 9-point race. And Scott Lee Cohen hasn’t ramped up his campaign yet. Quinn’s black support rises to 80 percent with leaners, which accounts for just under half of Quinn’s one-point narrowing because Brady picks up an additional point among African-Americans and rises to 10.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on August 23, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
Illinois 11. Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) finds herself in deeper trouble than she expected, as GOP challenger Adam Kinzinger has emerged as a serious threat to her. The state political environment is increasingly toxic for Democrats, and polling shows Halvorson, a former leader in the state legislator, in bad shape. Move from Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-up as Halvorson’s prospects deteriorate.
Other pundit ratings on this race, from Halvorson’s opponent…
The Cook Political Report - Toss-Up (moved from Lean D, 8/17/10)
Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP
