* CQ Politics has switched its rating on the Kirk vs. Seals congressional race to “No Clear Favorite”…
• Illinois’ 10th District (New Rating: No Clear Favorite. Previous Rating: Leans Republican)
The re-rating of this race isn’t due to any slipup by four-term moderate Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , who hasn’t made any missteps in the rematch of the 2006 race in which he defeated Democrat Dan Seals by 7 percentage points. Kirk is exceptionally well-funded, with $4.8 million raised through Oct. 15, and he’s touting a voting record that is among the most independent-minded among House Republicans. History also shows that many rematch challengers do worse on their second try.
But there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Seals is running closer to Kirk than he did two years ago in a slightly Democratic-leaning swing district that includes some affluent suburbs north of Chicago. Seals began his second campaign not long after he lost his first, which helps explain why he’s raised more than $3 million, one of the highest totals in the nation for a challenging candidate. The DCCC, which gave Seals’ 2006 campaign very limited assistance, has spent more than $1 million on this year’s race. And if there is a coattails effect anywhere from Obama’s presidential bid, it should be in this district in the Illinois senator’s home state — which even in 2004 favored Democrat John Kerry for president over Bush by 5 percentage points.
I don’t know if they’ll run it or not, but after this morning’s event, WBBM Radio asked me for my surprise of the night for next Tuesday. I was caught a bit off guard and pointed to a possible Kirk upset. There are other possibilities, however, so perhaps you can discuss them below.
* The DCCC has a new TV ad attacking Kirk and tying him to President Bush…
* But the Politico names Kirk as one of its “stand-out centrists of 2008″…
Mark Kirk of Illinois: A military man and leader of the Republican Main Street Partnership, this congressman from the suburbs of Chicago has the unenviable task this year of running against a charismatic African-American challenger. But Kirk has shown the mettle to stand up to Bush and Tom DeLay and the vision to set out a “suburban agenda” that is “pro-defense, pro-personal responsibility, pro-environment and pro-science.”
* After saying he wouldn’t do it, Jim Oberweis is now running a negative TV ad. The ad highlights his disagreement with Democratic incumbent Bill Foster on the bailout plan. So far, I’m told, this is just on cable TV, but he also bought radio time…
* Democrat Jill Morgenthaler’s new TV ad…
* Republican Aaron Schock’s leadership PAC got a writeup in CQ…
Another would-be House member who has been donating to party candidates is Illinois Republican Aaron Schock, a 27-year-old state representative who set up a “leadership” political action committee after easily winning a primary election in February in the state’s Peoria-centered 18th District. Schock, who is heavily favored to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Ray LaHood , started cutting checks of $5,000 apiece to non-incumbent Republicans earlier this month, including several who are certain to win and therefore vote in freshman class leadership elections.
These young guns are part of a small and very slowly growing set of politicians who have presaged leadership potential by capitalizing on electoral safety and fundraising prowess to raise their profiles before they take the oath of office.
Whether the early giving turns pre-frosh candidates into political players or simply reflects acumen that will serve their ambitions later on, it is a tactic that has been employed by fast-rising stars in the past.
