* The venerated Cook Political Report changed its rating yesterday on the 14th Congressional District special election between Jim Oberweis and Bill Foster from “lean Republican” to “tossup.” Here’s part of the explanation…

Four days out, the special election to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of former Speaker Dennis Hastert is too close to call… most agree Foster owns the late momentum.

The national GOP’s spending illustrates the party’s deep concern about where things stand in this pricey exurban Chicago district, which has a PVI score of R+5. As of the most recent FEC filings, the NRCC had spent over $1.1 million in independent expenditures – close to one fifth of its cash on hand - against Foster. By contrast, the DCCC had spent just over half that sum against Oberweis.

One Republican familiar with Illinois politics characterized the match up as a “race to the basement.” Indeed, whereas previous electoral experience is an asset for most candidates, Oberweis’s past unsuccessful bids are now coming back to haunt him. […]

Republican insiders also worry that Oberweis has not done enough to confront Foster directly on conservative base-motivating issues such as illegal immigration, and that an ad taking Foster’s debate comments out of context has backfired.

The Obama endorsement ad of Foster, the Tribune’s Foster endorsement, which included some harsh comments about Oberweis, and the Saturday voting are also cited as reasons for the switch. But they note the strong Republican tendencies of the district as Oberweis’ saving grace.

* But here’s something Cook may have missed…

Northern Illinois University, boasting more than 25,000 students, falls within the 14th Congressional District and students registered to vote in DeKalb could have a say in deciding whether Democrat Bill Foster or Republican Jim Oberweis will fill Hastert’s seat through January 2009. But, NIU’s spring break begins Friday and many students will be out of town on vacation and won’t be around to cast their vote in the special Saturday election. […]

Students did have the opportunity to vote early through Monday, but early voting numbers are way down across DeKalb County compared to the Feb. 5 primaries, according to Sharon Holmes, the county clerk. They have received only about one third of the total early and absentee votes they got for the Feb. 5 elections. [emphasis added]

I don’t know how it is now, but back in the day NIU students tended to go home to Chicago or the suburbs on the weekends anyway. Thursday was the big bar night. But spring break means the place will completely empty out.

That might make a difference if this ends up being a close race.

Thoughts?

…Adding… If this alleged ugliness is true and it somehow finds its way into the mainstream before Saturday then things could take a quick turn for the worse. Oy.