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New GDP numbers could signal trouble for Illinois’ more optimistic budget forecast

Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s FY 2026 Economic Forecast and Revenue Estimate and FY 2025 Revenue Update

• [National] In February, an aggregation of economic forecasts predicts average real GDP growth of 2.2% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026.

Real GDP in Illinois

• Illinois has consistently grown at a slower rate than the U.S. as a whole.
• Since 1998, the U.S. has averaged real GDP growth of 2.4% per year, while Illinois has averaged growth of 1.4%.
• Illinois has only grown faster than the nation in three years between 1998 and 2023.
• Illinois contracted in the first quarter of 2024 (-1.8%), before rebounding in the second (2.8%) and third quarters (2.0%).
• In February, S&P Global forecasted real GDP growth for Illinois of 1.8% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026.

* NPR

Figures released by the Commerce Department Wednesday show that the United States’ gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, after growing at a solid pace of 2.4% in the final months of 2024. […]

Growth was dragged down in part by a surge of imports, as businesses and consumers raced to stock up before Trump’s sweeping tariffs took effect in early April. Imports are a net negative for GDP. Government spending was also down.

Personal spending, which is the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, also slowed during the first quarter, after robust growth at the end of last year. Personal spending grew at an annual rate of just 1.8% in January, February and March — less than half the pace of the previous quarter.

While the job market has so far held up well, with an unemployment rate of just 4.2% in March, the Conference Board’s survey found expectations about the job market are the worst since 2009, when the economy was hemorrhaging hundreds of thousands of jobs every month.

You’ll recall that COGFA’s projected revenue estimates were significantly lower than the governor’s budget office projections last month.

The governor’s budget director at one point hinted that April’s tax receipts might out-perform expectations, and we’ll know more in a few days or so about that (and since April’s receipts will be based mainly on last year’s income, they could very well be significantly higher). Illinois’ unemployment rate in March was 4.8 percent, unchanged from the previous month and down a tick from the previous year. Employment is a hard indicator. When jobs fall, trouble is afoot. But that hasn’t yet been reported. And the GDP drop, as noted above, is tied in part to a surge in pre-tariff import buying.

Anyway, that’s a lot to digest, and there’s even more out there, but the bottom line is the headline on this post. So, buckle up for FY26. [This post has been updated for clarity.]

  20 Comments      


Mayor’s 87 percent transit ridership remarks turned back on him when it comes to funding (Updated)

Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson held a quick press conference this morning before meeting with the three tops. He was asked several questions about mass transit governance and funding

Reporter: It’s not on your public list of priorities but, you know, transit. The governance and structural effects and potential funding. Why wasn’t that on your list of priorities and do you have a specific ask, either on the governance model or on how we raise revenue?

Johnson: Well, because it’s on the priority list of the entire state of Illinois. There’s a specific list and then there are the things that we know we have to do, right? So my team, working with the CTA, has been very clear about the importance of ensuring the region that generates 87 percent of the ridership has to receive its fair share in funding. That’s not an unusual ask. That’s been the ongoing characterization of the people of Chicago in the region since Mayor Harold Washington, right? So that has been a part of a larger, broader conversation around a host of issues. But these [his Statehouse list of asks] are very specific, modest presentations that speak to some of the technical things that we can do to sharpen our ability to deliver quality services for the people of Chicago.

Reporter: President Preckwinkle has told me she does favor a consolidation of the [transit] agencies. Are you worried that what may come out of this that you know, kind of Chicago loses its influence over regional transit?

Mayor Johnson: Well, again, my responsibility as Chief Executive of Chicago is to advocate for the best interest of the people in Chicago. That’s what I’m doing. It’s no secret, again in the CTA region, we generate 87 percent of the ridership. So the economic vibrancy of our public transit system is centered in the city of Chicago. So the city of Chicago deserves its fair share, and we continue to advocate for that as I’ve already done.

Reporter: Along the same lines, what sort of funding models do you think would be helpful for state lawmakers, at least in the short term?

Yeah, that’s a great question. Look, I think that there are a number of elements that have been discussed throughout this entire process. I’m not going to act as if there’s one particular form of funding that works best. What my intentions are is to ensure that the voice of Chicago is speaking in unison. Again… 87 percent of the ridership and the revenue was generated from the city of Chicago. And so a funding mechanism that doesn’t hurt anyone, working people, and a funding mechanism that allows for those that have means are able to contribute more to the vibrancy of our city and our state.

Reporter: Just to follow up. On every point you mentioned that [87] percent. Does that mean the city of Chicago, the residents should be the majority group funding public transportation?

Johnson: I mean, that’s a conclusion that one can draw, right? You know, look, I believe in sharing. I’m a middle child. I’m accustomed to do it, and the people of Chicago deserve their fair share. That’s all.

My hat’s off to Ben Szalinski of Capitol News Illinois for that last follow-up.

…Adding… Hmm…


Reminder: 55% of existing transit funding in northeastern Illinois — including taxes and fares — comes from outside the city proper

[image or embed]

— Star:Line Chicago (@starlinechicago.bsky.social) April 30, 2025 at 11:03 AM

* Meanwhile, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle had this to say to Isabel today about consolidating the mass transit systems…

Well, the first thing I have to say is our priority in this legislative session is transportation legislation… We believe that we have to have an integrated, comprehensive, accountable system, and that’s not where we are at the moment. So we really need support, both for changes in governance, in our system, and more resources. And RTA has estimated that the shortfall on the revenue side will be about $770 million in the coming year. So we’ve got challenges. […]

We’re interested in a system that’s more streamlined.

Please pardon any transcription errors.

  26 Comments      


Roundup: Pritzker calls out ‘do-nothing’ Democrats in New Hampshire (Updated)

Monday, Apr 28, 2025 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* Subscribers were briefed this morning. The Associated Press

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker sharply criticized fellow Democrats on Sunday for not doing enough to oppose President Donald Trump, drawing a clear divide between himself and other high-profile Democrats seen as future presidential contenders.

Pritzker delivered the keynote address at the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner, the latest and most high-profile in a series of speeches this year.

While Pritzker continued to attack Trump, he also focused on what he says are shortcomings in his own party, assailing Democrats for listening to “a bunch of know-nothing political types” instead of everyday Americans. Without naming names, he called out Democrats “flocking to podcasts and cable news shows to admonish fellow Democrats for not caring enough about the struggles of working families.”

“Those same do-nothing Democrats want to blame our losses on our defense of Black people, of trans kids, of immigrants, instead of their own lack of guts and gumption,” Pritzker said.

* The Washington Post

The billionaire Democratic governor repeatedly brought the crowd to its feet with acidic attacks on the morals and ethics of the president, adviser and top donor Elon Musk, as well as members of the president’s Cabinet. He slammed their efforts to dismantle government programs that the most vulnerable Americans rely on and said the Democratic Party must “abandon the culture of incrementalism that has led us to swallow their cruelty.” It is time for his party, he said, to “knock the rust off poll-tested language” that has obscured “our better instincts.”

Pritzker was most searing in his condemnation of what he cast as the Trump administration’s infringement on the rights enshrined in the Constitution, stating that it should be easy for Democrats to say “it’s wrong to snatch a person off the street and ship them to a foreign gulag with no chance to defend themselves in a court of law.”

“Never before in my life have I called for mass protests, for mobilization, for disruption. But I am now,” Pritzker said to a standing ovation accompanied by whistles and cheers from the audience. “These Republicans cannot know a moment of peace. They must understand that we will fight their cruelty with every megaphone and microphone that we have. We must castigate them on the soap box and then punish them at the ballot box.” […]

One of Pritzker’s advantages among the potential White House aspirants is his ability to swing at Trump from a solidly blue state where the legislature is controlled by Democrats. From the outset, he took a more combative approach than other potential rivals such as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Democrats who represent narrowly divided states and initially emphasized their interest in bipartisan collaboration with Trump.

Pritzker also has not faced the same kind of constraints as other top contenders such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who was one of Trump’s top antagonists in 2024 but now needs Trump’s cooperation to help him secure the nearly $40 billion in federal disaster aid that he has requested to rebuild Pacific Palisades and Altadena after the devastating fires in January.

* New York Times

Mr. Pritzker, of course, rebuffed any suggestion that his appearance on Sunday night in Manchester, N.H., represented the opening bell of the 2028 Democratic primary race. He said he was focused on backing the party’s efforts in next year’s midterm elections. […]

“I’m one of the people leading the fight, and that is my role,” he said in an interview before his speech. “We’ve done an awful lot in Illinois, and we can be doing those things in other states.” […]

“The main divide within the Democratic Party is not between left and right — it’s whether you think this is a constitutional crisis or this is politics as usual,” said Ezra Levin, a co-founder of the progressive activist group Indivisible. “Pritzker is really demonstrating what it looks like to lead an opposition party against the overreaching authority of the federal government.”

In recent months, Mr. Pritzker has preached a gospel of staunch resistance to some of the most engaged Democratic activists across the country, delivering the keynote speech at party fund-raisers in Illinois and Austin, Texas, and at an annual gala for the Human Rights Campaign in Los Angeles. Next month, he is set to speak at a fund-raising dinner in Detroit for the Michigan Democratic Party.

* WMUR New Hampshire

In a one-on-one interview with WMUR Political Director Adam Sexton, Pritzker said he is fully focused on helping Democrats in the 2026 midterms.

“It is wrong to snatch people off the street with no chance to defend themselves in a court of law,” he said. […]

Pritzker brushed off any talk of a 2028 presidential run. News 9 asked if he thinks Democrats should restore New Hampshire to the top of their primary calendar.

“I don’t know what the DNC is going to do. I don’t have any control over that. I’m not on the DNC. But New Hampshire is very important because it’s an example of a place where you can come, you don’t have to spend a lot of money, you can meet people, and they’ll be the judge,” he said.

* More…

Thoughts?

…Adding… ILGOP…

Pritzker Calls For Violence Toward Republicans

While world leaders meet at the Vatican for the Pope’s funeral to discuss the goal of peace, Governor Pritzker calls on us to do the opposite: “Republicans cannot know a moment of peace.”

CHICAGO — Last night, JB Pritzker’s attempt to woo New Hampshire Democrats as he barrels towards the 2028 Democrat primary was full of divisive and inflammatory rhetoric. Pritzker’s obsession, to insult and to chastise President Trump, showed forcefully as he stoked the crowd in calling for political violence against Republicans.

“JB Pritzker’s ego-driven obsession with becoming President is putting Illinois, and Republicans across the country, at risk,” said ILGOP Chairman Kathy Salvi. “His inflammatory and dangerous speech is focused on further dividing our country and I hope to see Illinois Democrats condemn his call for violence.”

“Last night, Pritzker showed us that instead of helping hardworking families, he would rather raise their taxes, defend MS-13 gang members and watch businesses flee Illinois,” Salvi continued. “It’s become clear that Pritzker’s only priority is what’s best for him and his presidential bid. This weekend’s trip to New Hampshire is further proof that he’s already left Illinois behind.”

Don’t forget that Pritzker is an old pro at this shtick, considering how he’s attempted to become the leader of the Democrat party for the last three years. See for yourself:

FIRST: Pritzker traveled to New Hampshire in 2022 to raise his profile and set up a future presidential run.

THEN: Pritzker refused to quash rumors that he would leave Illinois to run for president when Democrats launched their soft coup against Joe Biden.

THEN: When Kamala Harris was announced as the Democrats’ preferred choice, Pritzker launched a full-court press campaign to become her vice president.

THEN: After failing to earn the nod as the vice-presidential nominee, Pritzker immediately pivoted and is working to become the Democrats’ choice for president in 2028.

NOW: Pritzker is in New Hampshire, wooing Democrat donors and soft launching a presidential campaign focused on lies, division and insults.

  84 Comments      


« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Selected react to budget reconciliation bill passage (Updated x3 - Comments open)
* Reader comments closed for Independence Day
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Some fiscal news
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup (Updated)
* RETAIL: Strengthening Communities Across Illinois
* Groups warn about plan that doesn't appear to be in the works
* SB 328: Separating Lies From Truth
* Campaign news: Big Raja money; Benton over-shares; Rashid's large cash pile; Jeffries to speak at IDCCA brunch
* Rep. Hoan Huynh jumps into packed race for Schakowsky’s seat (Updated)
* Roundup: Pritzker taps Christian Mitchell for LG
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition (Updated)
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Live coverage
* Trump admin freezes $240 million in grants for Illinois K-12 schools
* Yesterday's stories

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