I’ll believe it when I see it
Thursday, Jun 8, 2023 - Posted by Rich Miller * Crain’s…
Fingers crossed, but not counting on anything. * As you’ll recall, Stellantis’ Belvidere plant was idled months ago. From January…
Almost five months later and still no word on Illinois’ “best offer.” * And this is ominous news from Ford…
Also…
Uh-oh. Ford’s Chicago plant, the oldest factory the company operates, assembles the two-row Ford Explorer. It does, however, assemble the three-row Lincoln Aviator. And, of course, Rivian is having its own problems. Oy. * Remember this column I wrote in February?…
If Pritzker can lure a big, jobs-rich EV-related plant here, convince Ford to keep its plant open and prod Stellantis into reopening its plant, then he’s a hero. But color me skeptical on all three. I try hard not to be a negative Nellie, but this state has a well-deserved toxic reputation with the auto industry. …Adding… According to this article, Georgia gave Hyundai a $1.8 billion incentive package for an electric vehicle plant. North Carolina used $1.2 billion in incentives to land VinFast, a Vietnamese electric vehicle manufacturer. And South Carolina’s $1.3 billion state incentives package for Volkswagen included a $200 million loan from the state. Illinois’ $600 million kinda pales in comparison.
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*** UPDATED x1 - COGFA: Scenarios “are not budget predictions” *** Here we go again
Thursday, Jun 8, 2023 - Posted by Rich Miller * Jim Nowlan in the Tribune…
A “reasonable scenario”? Balderdash. I can’t believe we have to do this again, but here we go. * From COGFA…
And this is what I wrote about that very same scenario in April…
That scenario projected FY24 revenues of $50.41 billion and spending of $53.54 billion, for a deficit of $3.13 billion. In the real world, actual projected revenues are $50.6 billion and spending is projected at $50.4 billion. The current projected spending for FY24, by the way, is lower than all of COGFA’s scenarios, which as I’ve pointed out before were just numbers games played by accountants who should know better than put that stuff into publication. That current projected spending is even lower than COGFA’s most optimistic scenario, which predicted $50.9 billion in spending and a $495 million deficit with a tiny $37 million accounts payable this coming fiscal year. Accounts payable would rise to $1.455 billion by the end of Fiscal Year 2026. However, a $3 billion accounts payable level is considered a “normal” 30-day payment cycle. Accounts payables of $1.455 billion would mean the state’s bills would likely be paid within a couple of weeks. * First, he cherry picked the worst possible fantasy scenario, and then he goes on to predict what taxes will have to rise to fill a budget hole that will not exist…
Look, I’m not saying that a revenue enhancement of some sort is not in the future. Subscribers were told about one possible tax reform effort yesterday. All I’m saying is that using an obviously way-out-there fictional scenario to make bold predictions about the future is not sound reasoning. *** UPDATE *** Clayton Klenke at COGFA…
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