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No, Trump is not more popular than Pritzker, but the governor has work to do

Wednesday, Mar 6, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Ignore the hype and read the actual numbers…

A new poll — paid for by a pro-business group opposing a graduated income tax — finds President Donald Trump has a higher favorability ranking in Illinois than both Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan.

The We Ask America poll was commissioned by the not-for-profit dark money group Ideas Illinois, which is led by former Illinois Manufacturers’ Association head Greg Baise. The group is working hard to publicly oppose Pritzker’s plan to push for a graduated income tax, which the governor wants on the 2020 ballot. […]

The poll of 800 voters was conducted between Feb. 24 and 27, using a mix of automated calls to landlines and live cell phone calls. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. We Ask America did not release the crosstabs — including the gender or ages of those who were polled.

The poll asked about the job performance of Pritzker, who has only been in office since Jan. 14. It found that 37 percent said they approved of the governor’s job performance, while 36 percent disapproved. Among Republicans, 69 percent disapproved, while only 16 percent approved. Among Democrats, however, 57 percent approved of his performance, while only 13 percent disapproved. Of independent voters, 29 percent approved of Pritzker’s job performance.

Voters were also asked about Trump, and 41 percent said they approved of Trump’s performance, while 56 percent disapproved. The president’s approval is at 86 percent among Republicans, while his disapproval was at 89 percent among Democrats. Among independents, 42 percent approved, while 51 percent disapproved of his performance. The net job approval — the approval minus disapproval — for the president is at minus 15 percent. The latest Morning Consult poll had Illinois at -23 net approval for a poll conducted in January.

Where to begin?

Yes, 41 percent approved of Trump’s job performance compared to 37 percent for Pritzker. But that’s not how you judge who’s more popular. Trump’s disapproval rating of 56 percent was higher than his approval rating. Pritzker’s disapproval rating (36) was below his approval rating (37), giving him a +1 net approval. And +1 is far better than -15 every day of the week. And since 56 is much higher than 36, you could just as easily say that Trump is far more unpopular than Pritzker.

Also, while only 3 percent appeared to not have an opinion of the president’s job performance, 27 percent had no opinion of the governor’s performance. That makes sense because he’d barely been in office a month when the poll was taken.

* To be clear, 37-36 approve/disapprove numbers are not anything to write home about, particularly a few months after winning by 16 points. A We Ask America poll taken in January of 2015 showed that newly inaugurated Gov. Bruce Rauner’s approve/disapprove numbers were 52/23. A month later, another pollster had Rauner’s approve/disapprove rating at 43/28.

So, if this new poll is right (and it’s only one poll, snapshot in time, yadda, yadda) Pritzker is definitely not starting off with the people at his back.

* From the pollster…

While nearly half of Illinois voters (45%) are not sure of their opinion of Pritzker’s recent budget proposal, those that do have an opinion are not in favor. Less than one-quarter of voters (22%) support it, while one-third of voters (33%) oppose his budget proposal. Only 17% of Independents and 6% of Republicans support his budget, while 31% and 63% oppose the budget, respectively. Among Democrats, 37% support and 13% oppose it.

In other words, it’s a big “Meh” from voters. I can’t disagree with them.

* Also…

House Speaker Mike Madigan remains very unpopular. Just 18% of Illinois voters have a favorable opinion of Madigan, while 41% have an unfavorable opinion. Even among Democrats, Madigan is under water with just 26% having a favorable opinion, while 30% have an unfavorable opinion. Independents have a highly unfavorable opinion of Madigan, with just 13% expressing a favorable opinion but 44% an unfavorable one. Among Republicans, he sits at 13% Favorable/54% Unfavorable (41% Very Unfavorable).

Favorability and job performance are different measures, but -23 is obviously bad. The best thing Madigan has going for him is that 41 percent don’t have any opinion about him. He’ll take that all day.

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Poll: Lightfoot leads Preckwinkle 58-30

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Stand for Children IL PAC today released the results of the poll it commissioned for the Chicago mayoral run-off. The poll, conducted February 27-28, included 400 likely Chicago voters.

When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 58% of respondents chose Lori Lightfoot and 30% chose Toni Preckwinkle. 12% were undecided.

“Stand for Children has been going door to door to learn what Chicago voters believe the next mayor needs to do so that our schools best serve the children of this city, especially those who are traditionally overlooked and under-tapped because of their skin color, ZIP code, first language, or disability,” said Mimi Rodman, Stand IL PAC chairperson. “Both candidates have made education a priority of their campaigns. The question is which of them can truly deliver and put words into action.”

And if you didn’t know before, now you know why Preckwinkle is already up with negative TV ads. She has to drag Lightfoot down to her own level before she can build herself up.

* Be very careful with these crosstabs because the sample size is on the small side…

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) recently completed a survey of likely April 2019 voters in the City of Chicago, sponsored by Stand for Children. The survey shows Lori Lightfoot begins the race for Mayor with a commanding lead over Toni Preckwinkle. Both candidates are highly recognized and viewed favorably, but more than half of voters say they will back Lightfoot in April.

Some of the specific findings of the survey include the following:

• Both candidates are viewed favorably by a majority of voters. Sixty-four percent view Lightfoot favorably and 53 percent have a favorable opinion of Preckwinkle. However, Preckwinkle also has a greater number of detractors. While only ten percent of voters view Lightfoot unfavorably, more than one-third have an unfavorable opinion of Preckwinkle (37%).

• Voters favor Lightfoot over Preckwinkle by nearly a two-to-one margin. As shown in Figure 1, 58 percent of voters say they will support Lightfoot in the upcoming April election, while thirty percent back Toni Preckwinkle and 12 percent remain undecided.

Lightfoot leads among essentially every major subgroup of the Chicago electorate, including:

o 60% of women and 56% of men;
o 54% of voters under age 50, 68% of those aged 50-64, and 55% of those age 65 and over;
o 60% of college-educated voters and 55% of those without a four-year degree;
o 62% of liberals, 55% of moderates, and 54% of conservatives; and
o 62% of white voters, 59% of Latinos, and a 49% plurality of African-Americans. Lightfoot’s 49% to 40% lead among African-Americans is one of her narrowest of any demographic group.

Lightfoot also wins majority support from the backers of every major candidate that was defeated in the primary election – including a 54% to 38% margin of support among those who backed Bill Daley.

Survey Methodology: From February 27-28, 2019, FM3 completed 400 telephone interviews (on landlines and cellphones) with randomly-selected Chicago voters likely to participate in the April 2019 election. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. Due to rounding, not all results will sum to 100%.

* By the way, I was out with some folks having dinner Saturday night and one of them, a Chicago resident, received a live polling call. The pollster tested negative messages on both candidates.

I took some quick notes. The pollster tested Preckwinkle’s tax increases, an allegation that she’d made the county’s healthcare system worse, took money from Ed Burke, was a Joe Berrios ally and is a party boss who took TIF developer money.

Lightfoot, the recipients were told, made money representing big corporations, was censured over a deportation and is a faux reformer. Lightfoot pretends to be an outsider, but took appointments from Daley and Emanuel.

I don’t know who was behind that particular poll, but I assume everybody and their sister is in the field these days.

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