Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Thursday, Nov 8, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Let’s return to the Fox News/AP Illinois election analysis. Here are most of the responses which had at least 779 respondents (some were much lower)…

* Trump job approval

Approve 40%
Approve strongly 23%

Disapprove 60%
Disapprove strongly 49%

* Direction of the country

Right direction 34%
Wrong direction 66%

* Impact of Trump admin’s trade policies on national economy

Help 32%
Hurt 55%
No difference 12%

* Impact of Trump admin’s trade policies on local economy

Help 26%
Hurt 48%
No difference 26%

* Views of the Affordable Care Act

Repeal the law entirely 17%
Repeal parts of the law 25%
Leave the law as is 17%
Expand the law 41%

* Immigration policy - immigrants living in the U.S. illegally

Offered a chance to apply for legal status 68%
Deported to the country they came from 31%

* Do you think the way Democrats talk about politics these days is leading to an increase in acts of violence, or don’t you think so?

Yes, it is 42%
No, it is not 57%

* Do you think the way Republican talk about politics these days is leading to an increase in acts of violence, or don’t you think so?

Yes, it is 62%
No, it is not 38%

* Do you think the way Democrats/Republicans talk about politics these days is leading to an increase in acts of violence, or don’t you think so?

Yes, both 20%
Democrats but not Republicans 23%
Republicans but not Democrats 42%
No, neither 16%

Discuss.

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Non-college whites, white men, independent women, evangelicals and seniors were Rauner’s constituencies

Thursday, Nov 8, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Fox News…

Fox News has launched an improved approach for analyzing Americans’ priorities and vote preferences on Election Day. The Fox News Voter Analysis combines survey data from NORC at the University of Chicago with voting results from The Associated Press. As more people vote early or by mail, the new method overcomes the limitations of in-person exit polls and captures the views of all Americans by integrating probability-based, state-by-state surveys with a massive online poll.

Full methodology is here.

* According to this analysis, JB Pritzker defeated Gov. Rauner among men 48-45, among women 59-33 and scored in the high 50s in all age groups except 65+, which Rauner won 50-40.

Rauner won white men 55-37, but Pritzker won white women 49-43. Pritzker won among African-Americans 91-6 and among Latinx 69-23.

Pritzker won all of the broad education categories, but Rauner won among whites who aren’t college educated 50-39. The two split college-educated whites 47-47.

Eight percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Republican women (you will recall they were targeted heavily by the Conservative Party) went for Sam McCann, and Rauner took 83 percent of GOP voters. Pritzker won 90 percent of Democratic voters.

According to the research, Pritzker won independent men 40-34, but lost independent women to Rauner 57-34. Not sure what’s up there.

Pritzker won moderates 52-39, while Sam McCann took 11 percent of conservatives to Rauner’s 73 percent.

Rauner won white evangelical/born again Christians 61-35 with no recorded support for McCann (very small sample size there, though).

Of those who voted to express support for President Trump, McCann took 9 percent to Rauner’s 78.

We’ll get to other results in a bit.

67 Comments

*** UPDATED x2 - Underwood responds *** Poll: Hultgren trailing by 6 into the home stretch

Monday, Nov 5, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Siena College/New York Times poll of 428 likely voters has Democratic challenger Lauren Underwood leading incumbent Republican Congressman Randy Hultgren by 6 points, 49-43. MoE of +/-5 percent.

* Other stuff from the poll…

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

Approve 46%
Disapprove 49%
Don’t know 5%

Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?

Repubs keep House 46%
Dems take House 46%
Don’t know 9%

Much more here.

*** UPDATE 1 *** He should’ve dropped this oppo at least a month ago and followed it up with TV ads. Instead, he let Dan Proft release the information and is holding an election eve press conference. Political malpractice on Hultgren’s part…

Last minute news conference this afternoon from @RepHultgren as questions are raised about @LUnderwood630 experience as a nurse, #IL14 polling shows Underwood ahead #November6

— Mary Ann Ahern (@MaryAnnAhernNBC) November 5, 2018

*** UPDATE 2 *** From Lauren Underwood…

“We have fewer than 24 hours before Election Day and I’m traveling across the seven counties of the 14th District, visiting with voters and my team’s dedicated volunteers. Randy Hultgren clearly saw polling numbers that made him nervous, so he is staging a last minute press conference to discredit my professional work. Our voters deserve better than desperate political stunts from a career politician. They deserve honesty and responsiveness from their representative in Congress; Randy Hultgren has failed on both counts.

“The facts are simple: I’m proud to be a licensed registered nurse in the state of Illinois and two other jurisdictions. I specialize in public health nursing. I have spent my career fighting for affordable, quality healthcare. Throughout my clinical training and decade of nursing experience, I have spent thousands of hours working with patients. I look forward to carrying the values of the 14th District with me to Washington to make real progress on issues like health care that are important to the families of this community.”

Visit https://www.underwoodforcongress.com/facts to learn the facts.

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