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Tuesday, Oct 16, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More from the Belleville News-Democrat…

Despite being down in the polls, including a poll showing Pritzker leading 49 percent to 27 percent, Rauner remained confident, at least publicly.

“Those polls are absolutely wrong. Those are by registered voters. Democrats outnumber Republicans by a lot,” Rauner said. “When you look at who’s actually going to vote, we’re very close.”

Um, the last Reuters/Ipsos poll was of 968 likely voters. It had Pritzker ahead by 20 points.

The Simon Poll surveyed 715 likely voters and it had Pritzker ahead by 22 points.

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Ipsos poll: Pritzker up by 20

Wednesday, Oct 10, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Thanks to a commenter for pointing this one out…

Today, Ipsos released new election data in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics, showing that Democrat J. B. Pritzker (50%) holds a double-digit lead over Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner (30%) in the Illinois race for Governor. Among likely voters, 62% view both Pritzker and Rauner as “traditional” politicians.

The top issues in determining the vote in Illinois are the economy (16%) and healthcare (15%). On the issue of the economy, likely voters are tied on whether they think Democrats (40%) or Republicans (38%) have the better policy. On the issue of healthcare, however, 53% of likely voters feel that Democrats have the better policy as opposed to 27% who feel that Republicans have the better policy.

Some of this data is old. The poll was taken September 27 through October 5. 968 likely voters

57 percent of likely voters say they prefer a generic Democratic congressional candidate while 35 percent prefer a Republican. 62 percent disapprove of President Trump’s job performance while just 37 percent approve.

68 percent say they are “very motivated” to vote for a candidate who would “defend laws that protect healthcare for people with pre -existing conditions,” while 25 percent say are “somewhat motivated.” Whew.

While Gov. Bruce Rauner is turning up the heat on illegal immigration this week, just 27 percent say they are “very motivated” to vote for a candidate who would “make it a priority to deport more illegal immigrants from the US.”

Just 23 percent say they are “very motivated” to vote for a candidate who will support President Trump, while 49 percent say they are “very motivated” to vote for a candidate who will oppose President Trump.

Click here for more. And click here for xtabs.

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NYT poll has Hultgren up by 4

Wednesday, Oct 10, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* NY Times poll of 501 respondents conducted October 3-8…

Randy Hultgren 47%
Lauren Underwood 43%
Undecided 10%

* Neither candidate is very well known…

Hultgren 31% favorable rating; 27% unfavorable; 42% don’t know
Underwood: 31% favorable rating; 14% unfavorable; 55% don’t know

Hultgren has been in Congress since 2011 and 42 percent of his district couldn’t pick him out of a lineup? Not good.

* More…

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? 46% Approve; 49% Disapprove; 5% Don’t know

Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control? 50% Reps. keep House; 43% Dems. take House; 7% Don’t know

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court? 51% Support; 45% Oppose; 5% Don’t know

As you may know, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has been accused of committing sexual assault when he was a teenager. Would you say you believe the allegations, you do not believe the allegations, or you simply are unable to come to a conclusion? 32% Believe; 36% Do not believe; 32% Don’t know

Do you support electing more people who describe themselves as feminists? 50% Support; 35% Oppose; 15% Don’t know

Is it important to elect more women to public office? 77% Agree; 14% Disagree; 9% Don’t know

As you think about your member of Congress, would you prefer your representative to support President Trump and his agenda, or to serve as a check on the president and his agenda? 43% Support; 51% Check; 6% Don’t know

The partisan split on the poll was 25 percent Democrat, 34 percent Republican, 39 percent independent and 1 percent other.

President Donald Trump won this district by almost 4 points two years ago. Sen. Mark Kirk won it by 8. Comptroller Leslie Munger won it by 21. Hultgren won it by almost 19. Times change.

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Morning Consult Poll: Rauner disapproval rating is 62 percent

Wednesday, Oct 10, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Keep in mind that this is a Morning Consult poll and their methodology is on the opaque side. Anyway, here you go…

For the seventh quarter in a row, the 10 most popular governors in the country are all Republicans.

Six of the governors who top the latest edition of Morning Consult’s Governor Approval Rankings — based on 361,607 surveys with registered voters across the country conducted July 1 through Sept. 25 — are on the ballot next month and appear to be cruising toward re-election.

* Republican Gov. Charlie Baker in Massachusetts is at the top of the national list. Gov. Rauner is the third least popular in the country…

GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner of Illinois is the least popular governor on the list up for re-election this year, with 62 percent of voters in the state disapproving of his work. In Wisconsin, where Gov. Scott Walker is seeking a third term, 50 percent of Badger State voters disapprove of him, making him the second least popular Republican on the ballot next month.

Just 25 percent approve of Gov. Rauner’s job performance. 13 percent either don’t know or have no opinion.

…Adding… Note the timing of the big slide…

Bruce Rauner's net approval rating, per @MorningConsult:

April 2017: -7
July 17: -9
October 17: -25
February 18: -24
April 18: -34
July 18: -33
October 18: -37#twill #ilgov

— Illinois Working Together (@IllinoisWorking) October 10, 2018

July of 2017 is when he vetoed the tax hike and brought in the Best Team In America™.

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