* Never make assumptions based on just one poll in August. Or at any time for that matter. For instance, a Tribune poll in September of 2014 had Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bruce Rauner by eleven points. That didn’t work out too well.

While those Tribune poll results went against the national pro-GOP tide four years ago, this new NBC/Marist poll seems to go right along with the national “blue wave” predictions. JB Pritzker leads Gov. Rauner by 16 and the Democrats have a huge ballot advantage in congressional races.

Even so, the poll has some very puzzling results in the crosstabs.

It’s not weighted too heavily for Democrats (38 percent), but polls of registered voters will tend to skew a bit more Democratic than polls of likely voters, and this one is of registered voters. It’s close enough on the geographical and racial splits, but it does look a bit on the young side.

* For me, anyway, the really odd results are in the collar counties and in central/southern Illinois. As you know, Hillary Clinton won every collar county except McHenry and Donald Trump did really well in Downstate.

Yet, when asked if they preferred a Republican or Democratic Congress, the collars chose the Republican Party 45-40 and central/southern Illinoisans chose the Democrats 44-40. The partisan margins in both regions were even more pronounced when asked which party they intended to vote for in the congressional elections.

Same for the governor’s race. The collars chose Rauner 40-34, while central/southern Illinoisans preferred Pritzker 43-33. A ten-point winning margin in that region would be an absolutely stunning upset for Pritzker and would reverse decades of trends.

* Now, even if the poll is dead wrong about those two regions, the overall results could be close to right. I’ve seen plenty of polls with some questionable crosstabs that wound up mirroring the final overall result. Also, Clinton won Illinois by 17 points and this poll has Pritzker ahead by 16. Another wave is almost assuredly heading our way. Etc., etc.

All I’m saying here is that either a couple of this poll’s regional results are off or are expectations are off. We’ll find out in November.

Also, for the small number of you who think that Pritzker should be leading by even more than 16 points, I’d point you to the very similar 2016 presidential results and the fact that the last time a sitting governor lost reelection by double-digits was 1960, when Otto Kerner clobbered GOP Gov. Bill Stratton by 11 points.

* Coverage roundup…

* Poll: Democrat leads expensive race for Illinois governor: And 57 percent of voters say their choice for Congress in November will be a message for more Democrats to “check and balance” Trump, while 32 percent say it will be a message for more Republicans to help pass the president’s agenda.

* NBC/Marist poll: Pritzker up by 16, Rauner 2-to-1 unfavorable rating: The poll showed Pritzker ahead of Rauner among self-described independent voters 43 percent to 25 percent and among those with a moderate ideology, 50 percent to 25 percent. Rauner had the advantage among self-described conservatives 55 percent to 20 percent and was backed by 71 percent of supporters of Donald Trump despite the governor’s aversion to speaking about the controversial president.

* Poll: Democrat leads expensive race for Illinois governor: With the state hosting at least four competitive U.S. House races this November, the poll also shows Democrats enjoying a 14-point advantage in congressional preference, with 49 percent of voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 35 percent wanting Republicans in charge. Inside those numbers, Democrats lead among women (54 percent to 30 percent) and men (44 percent to 39 percent); among voters in populous Cook County (59 percent to 23 percent); among independents (43 percent to 32 percent); and among whites with college degrees (54 percent to 34 percent).

* TV news poll shows Pritzker leading Rauner by 16 points: Poll takers were also asked about how President Donald Trump is doing. Of registered voters, 56 percent said they disapproved of his performance, with 32 percent saying they approved.