* I’d much rather be Vallas than Johnson at this point, but the frontrunner can’t seem to get over the hump despite outspending Johnson 2-1, unless people are lying to the pollsters…
…Adding… Important point from Emerson…
When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, and the vote is accounted for, Vallas’ lead over Johnson increases to six points, 53% to 47%.
Oof. There it is.
* More…
* As we all saw last year, crime has been the top issue in Chicago for quite a while now…
* Interesting…
Six in 10 voters (61%) feel there is more crime in Chicago today than there was a year ago, while just 8% feel there is less crime.
When asked who they trust more to handle the issue, a majority (54%) chose Vallas. 38% of likely voters say they trust Johnson to handle crime, while just 9% trust both equally.
Both men have made their backgrounds in education a major selling point on the campaign trail. When asked who they trust more to handle education in Chicago, 48% of those polled picked Paul Vallas, 41% trust Brandon Johnson, and 11% trust both equally.
Regarding city finances, 50% trust Vallas’ vision, 37% trust Johnson.
If crime is the number one issue, and voters trust Vallas 54-38 over Johnson on that issue, then that is horrible news for Johnson’s campaign.
* Johnson has to do a lot better than this with Black voters or he’s doomed…
* Vallas’ favorable rating is 56 and his unfavorables are 36. Johnson’s fave/unfave is 53-40. So, Vallas has the edge there as well.
* More from Emerson…
“Of those who feel there is more crime in Chicago than there was a year ago, 59% are voting for Vallas and 27% Johnson,” Kimball noted. “Of those who think there is the same amount of crime, 60% plan to support Johnson and 27% Vallas.”
* Crosstabs are here.
* The Hill…
The data, however, reveals a stark demographic divide in the mayoral runoff; 58 percent of young voters — those between 18 and 24 years old — favor Johnson, while Vallas performs better among voters 50 and over, drawing 52 percent support.
And men are also leaning toward Vallas, with 52 percent saying they plan to vote for him over Johnson. Women, meanwhile, are more evenly split; forty-three percent say they’re backing Johnson, while 41 percent are supporting Vallas.
Seems obvious that Johnson has to solidify his support among Black voters and lock down more votes from women in order to win this thing.
