* Back to the Simon Poll with all the caveats we’ve already discussed…
Redistricting Reform
By almost three-to-one, voters are in favor of redistricting reform, which has been the subject of two ultimately unsuccessful statewide petition drives. More than six in ten (64 percent) favor having “legislative district maps created and recommended by a commission that is independent of the elected representatives.” Four in ten (40 percent) strongly favored redistricting reform, with 24 percent favoring it somewhat. Two in ten respondents (22 percent) were opposed.
Voters across partisan and regional groupings were in favor of the redistricting commission idea: 67 percent of Chicago city voters, 66 percent of suburban Chicago voters, and 58 percent of Downstate voters in support. Likewise, the redistricting commission was supported by 68 percent of Democrats, 67 percent of Independents, and 60 percent of Republicans.
“The proposal for redistricting by an independent commission is now quite popular as it has been in all of our earlier Simon polls. There seems to be a very active grassroots movement supporting a change, and this year there is an unusual number of legislators from both parties who have signed on,” noted John S. Jackson, one of the co-directors of the poll.
Lobbying Reform
Concern over influence-peddling in Springfield may be driving support for lobbying reform proposals. By a wide margin (85 percent in favor, only 11 percent opposed), voters support a so- called “revolving door” proposal that would force lawmakers “to wait at least one year after leaving office before accepting jobs with firms that lobby their state legislatures.” Support is uniformly robust—in the mid- to high 80 percent range across demographic and geographic categories.
Six in ten (61 percent) support a ban on state legislators being paid for lobbying local governments—46 percent strongly in favor and 15 percent somewhat in favor. A third (33 percent) oppose the proposal. As in the “revolving door” question, there is little meaningful variation according to party or region, with support approaching or exceeding 60 percent throughout.
Redistricting reform, by the way, has about the same level of support as the graduated income tax in this poll (65 percent). Fewer people opposed remap reform than opposed the graduated tax, however (32 percent).
* More…
It has been proposed that Illinois ban state legislators from lobbying for local governments if they get paid for the lobbying. Would you favor or oppose this proposal?
Favor 61%
Strongly favor 46%
Somewhat favor 15%
Oppose 33%
Somewhat oppose 11%
Strongly oppose 22%
Other/don’t know 6%
Most states surrounding Illinois require lawmakers to wait at least one year after leaving office before accepting jobs with firms that lobby their state legislatures after leaving office. Illinois does not. Should Illinois require lawmakers to wait at least a year before registering as a lobbyist?
Yes 85%
No 11%
Other/don’t know 5%
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* Paul Simon Public Policy Institute…
Two-thirds (65 percent) of respondents said they favored a constitutional change “to allow a graduated income tax—that is, tax rates would be lower for lower-income taxpayers and higher for upper-income taxpayers.” Support was robust, with 44 percent strongly favoring and 21 percent somewhat favoring the proposal. About a third (32 percent) opposed the proposal, 24 percent strongly and 8 percent somewhat opposed.
Support for the graduated income tax proposal reached majority levels in all three of the major geographic breakdowns in Illinois: 73 percent in favor in the City of Chicago, 68 percent favorable in the Chicago suburbs and 55 percent favorable downstate. Partisan differences were more stark with 83 percent of Democrats favoring the graduated tax system, compared with only half that level of support among Republicans (41 percent). Roughly six in ten (59 percent) Independents favor the graduated tax. […]
A bare majority (51 percent) favored a constitutional amendment that would allow a reduction in retirement benefits earned in the future by state workers. About a quarter (24 percent) strongly favored, and 27 percent somewhat favored a proposal that “would preserve state retirement benefits already earned by public employees, but would also allow a reduction in the benefits earned in the future, whether by current or future employees.” More than a third (37 percent) opposed the proposal.
The pension-reduction question received majority support in Chicago (55 percent) and its suburbs (51 percent), and plurality support Downstate (48 percent). The variation occurs among partisan groups: below a majority among Democrats (48 percent) and independents (47 percent), with much more enthusiasm among Republicans (61 percent favor).
1,000 voters, MoE of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, mobile phone users were 60 percent of those polled. We’ve discussed some problems with this poll before. A big one is the sample was 56 percent male and 44 percent female. Another is that Chicago is underrepresented and the poll skewed older.
* Questions…
Some people have proposed an amendment to the Illinois Constitution that would preserve state retirement benefits already earned by public employees, but would also allow a reduction in the benefits earned in the future, whether by current or future employees?
Favor 51%
Strongly favor 24%
Somewhat favor 27%
Oppose 37%
Somewhat oppose 17%
Strongly oppose 20%
Other/don’t know 12%
Would you favor or oppose a proposal to change the Illinois Constitution to allow a graduated income tax – that is, tax rates would be lower for lower-income taxpayers and higher for upper-income taxpayers?
Favor 65%
Strongly favor 44%
Somewhat favor 21%
Oppose 32%
Somewhat oppose 8%
Strongly oppose 24%
Other/don’t know 3%
Low levels of undecideds on the tax question and high numbers of “strongly favor.”
We’ll get to some of the other questions later today.
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Problems with Simon Poll
Monday, Feb 24, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* We discussed the Simon Poll results last week, but Rick Pearson took a look at the numbers…
However, the poll, which has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points among Democrats, relies on a methodology that raises questions about its accuracy.
The survey does not weight its results based on the demographic makeup of Illinois voters, including by gender, geography or race. For example, of the poll’s 1,000 registered voters, 56% were identified as male and 44% female. The federal census, however, shows a majority of the state’s population is female while 2016 exit polling showed the state’s Democratic electorate was 54% female.
The polling sample also did not accurately reflect the percentage of the vote that came from strongly Democratic Chicago compared with less Democratic suburbs and Downstate. Only a quarter of the poll’s Democratic results came from the city of Chicago, while actual voting in 2016 showed the city accounted for 35% of the state’s total Democratic primary turnout.
In addition, the new survey skewed heavily toward older voters, compared with 2016 exit polling that showed roughly 40% of the Democratic electorate was under the age of 45. The new poll’s racial breakdown of 60% white, 24% black and 6% Latino tracked closer to Illinois voting demographics in the last presidential primary.
Crosstabs are here. Discuss.
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Poll: Foxx drops, Conway surges
Monday, Feb 24, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This poll is “new” only in that the Conway campaign decided to publish it today. The survey was completed eight days ago, so some of the numbers are eleven days old. Press release…
With three weeks left before the 2020 Democratic Primary, a new poll released today shows former prosecutor and Naval Intelligence Officer Bill Conway surging in the race for Cook County State’s Attorney. Conway is now within the margin of error (28% Foxx / 26% Conway / 6% Fioretti / 4% More), narrowing his deficit by more than 20 points after trailing Foxx by 22 in December. Additionally, in a head-to-head match-up Conway leads Foxx by 5 (41% Conway / 36% Foxx).
“Voters across Cook County are tired of Kim Foxx’s status quo, where the politically-connected get one set of justice and everyone else gets another,” said campaign spokeswoman Eliza Glezer. “It’s clear that in Bill Conway they see the change we need: someone with the independence and experience to clean up the State’s Attorney’s office so that it works for everyone regardless of who they know or where they’re from.”
Other key findings include:
By more than two to one, likely Democratic primary voters disapprove of how Foxx handled the Jussie Smollett case. With a majority 57% disapproving and only 25% approving, this promises to be a major problem for the incumbent who has refused to answer straightforward questions on how she handled the case for nearly a year and who shows no signs of stopping, despite special prosecutor Dan Webb’s decision to reindict Smollett.
Democratic primary voters are favorable toward Conway and unfavorable toward Foxx. Indeed, while nearly twice as many have favorable views of Conway as unfavorable (29%/16%), Foxx’s rating is net negative (36%/40%), a major problem for a well-known incumbent whose numbers are moving the wrong direction.
Bob Fioretti (6%) and Donna More (4%) are not major factors in this race, and like Foxx their support has trended down since December.
Frankly, I thought the Smollett disapproval would be higher, but that’s certainly not good.
And the trend doesn’t appear to be Foxx’s friend…
A superPAC supporting Foxx recently disclosed a $2 million contribution.
* Methodology…
The above findings are from a survey of n=600 likely Cook County Democratic primary voters conducted February 13-16, 2020. The poll’s margin of sampling error is +4.0%.
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