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New WGN TV poll has Irvin leading Bailey by just 4 points

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Here we go…

* Story

A new WGN-TV/The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey of likely GOP primary voters shows Irvin leading the field with 24.1% support, followed by Bailey with 19.8%. […]

The gubernatorial primary also has an education divide: Irvin leads Bailey among those polled with college or postgraduate degrees 30% to 17%. Bailey leads Irvin among those without a college degree 23% to 18%. […]

Forty percent of Republican primary voters say abortion should be legal only in cases of rape, incest and when the woman’s life is endangered. Eighteen percent say it should be illegal in all cases and 15% say it should be legal up to 20 weeks. Another 15% say legal in all cases and 13% say legal up to six weeks of pregnancy.

Spend that kind of money and only leading in a reputable poll by 4 points? Not great.

* More at the link, but here’s something…


Not great for Rodney Davis, and Irvin better hope Trump doesn’t go with Bailey.

* More…



Crime doesn’t poll as high as one would think.

* The US Senate primary is wide open…


* Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Illinois poll of Republican primary voters was conducted May 6-8, 2022. The Republican primary sample consisted of somewhat and very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk.

…Adding… Bailey campaign…

This polling confirms what most Illinoisans have known for months; this primary election is a two-person race for the heart and soul of our Republican Party. The choice is clear between a conservative Republican like Darren Bailey and a career Democrat like Irvin. Darren Bailey has stood up for working families and taxpayers from the beginning, and Richard Irvin is a Pritzker-hugging, basement hiding puppet of the political elites who is afraid to debate Darren Bailey. Our grassroots movement will continue to roll as our campaign begins to punch back and set the record straight. We’re ready for the fight. Darren Bailey will win this primary and defeat Pritzker in November.

…Adding… Irvin campaign…

JB Pritzker and his allies are funding Darren Bailey’s campaign because they know that Richard Irvin is Pritzker’s greatest threat in November.

  72 Comments      


CD17 Dem poll has Wallace in lead in crowded race followed closely by former weatherman Sorenson and undecideds at 43 percent

Tuesday, May 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

A new poll of Illinois’ 17th Congressional District Democratic voters conducted last week shows former state Rep. Litesa Wallace leading a crowded field of deep-pocketed rivals.

According to the poll by Triton Polling & Research of 522 registered voters and paid for by the Wallace campaign, she leads with 22.1 percent of the vote, trailed by former regional weatherman Eric Sorenson with 18.6 percent and nobody else in the field garnering more than 9 percent.

Rockford alderman Jonathan Logemann, preferred by many establishment figures, netted only 4.9 percent in a poll with a 4.3 percent margin of error.

Wallace’s name identification showed room to grow at 43.6 percent, compared to Sorenson at 51.4. Logemann was at 31.1 percent.

Wallace was trusted to “get things done for working families” by 20.9 percent of the respondents, leading the field.

“Voters know Litesa’s an advocate who gets things done for women, children and working families,” said Dulana Reese, Wallace campaign manager.

The polling began on May 2nd, the day Politico published the leaked U.S. Supreme Court opinion showing the vote to eliminate Roe vs. Wade abortion protections. It concluded May 5th.

“Once voters realize that abortion rights are on the ballot in November and that Rep. Wallace has a proven track record of making Illinois a haven state and standing up for reproductive freedom, we expect Litesa’s advantage to grow,” Reese said.

“The Republican frontrunner in this race is Esther Joy King, an extremist on abortion who believes in no exceptions for girls and women, even in cases of rape, incest and the life of the mother. Rep. Wallace will bring the biggest contrast in our efforts to retain the seat currently held by Rep. Cheri Bustos,” Reese said.

Rep. Wallace previously served three terms in Springfield as the State Representative from Rockford’s 67th District. She gained national attention in 2018 when she ran for Lt. Governor alongside Daniel Biss in the Democratic primary for Governor.

She has been endorsed by SEIU Illinois, Winnebago County Citizens for Choice, the Collective PAC, Democracy for America, and a long list of elected officials in the 17th District and across Illinois.

Rep. Wallace is running to represent the newly drawn 17th District, which includes most of Peoria, Rockford, Freeport, the Quad Cities, Bloomington-Normal, Macomb, and Galesburg.

The poll was taken May 2-5. Click here for the toplines, which show that 60 percent of respondents said they always vote and another 35 percent said they were very likely to vote in the primary.

* There was also this mild push question asked after the favorability and head-to-head questions (with initial head to head results in parentheses)…

Of the candidates for Representative of U.S. House Illinois District 17, who do you trust to get things done for working families?

Alderman Jonathan Logemann 5.8 (4.9)
Cannabis lobbyist Jacqueline McGowan 4.5 (2.3)
County Board Member Angie Normoyle 8.0 (7.7)
TV Weatherman Eric Sorensen 16.8 (18.6)
Counselor & Experienced Legislator Litesa Wallace 20.9 (22.1)
Admissions advisor Marsha Williams 0.9 (2.9)

Not Sure / Don’t Know 43.1 (41.5)

Kinda interesting that her numbers went down a tiny bit when “experienced legislator” was mentioned.

More on the candidates here.

  17 Comments      


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* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Catching up with the congressionals
* Do better
* Big Beautiful Bill roundup: Pritzker says special session may not be needed, warns 330,000 Illinoisans could lose Medicaid; Planned Parenthood of Illinois pledges to continue care despite cuts (Updated)
* RETAIL: The Largest Employer In Illinois
* 'The Chosen One' tones himself down
* Open thread
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