* PPP poll taken February 28 through March 1 of 553 likely Democratic primary voters in Cook County…
Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?
Approve 10%
Disapprove 87%
Not sure 2%
If the Democratic Primary Election for Governor were held today and the candidates were JB Pritzker, Chris Kennedy, and Daniel Biss, who would you vote for?
JB Pritzker 35%
Chris Kennedy 31%
Daniel Biss 18%
Not sure 16%
Keep in mind that this was taken right at the very beginning of Pritzker’s new TV ad campaign against Kennedy. Maybe Pritzker needs to tap the brakes a bit harder though?
* Check out the racial crosstabs…
3 percent?
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* Hmm…
The PAC is headed by Operating Engineers Local 150 President Jim Sweeney, a staunch ally of House Speaker Michael Madigan. The entire $675K contribution came from the Fight Back Fund, which lists the same address as both Local 150 and the Fight Back for a Better Tomorrow PAC.
So… what’s going on?
* Check out their new B-1. They’re spending $600K on TV ads opposing Rep. Scott Drury, who is running for attorney general and is a noted Madigan foe.
…Adding… A couple of recent Drury press releases. Yesterday…
Earlier today, Scott Drury’s campaign for Attorney General announced the endorsements of three leading Illinois criminal justice reform advocates:
· Thomas P. Sullivan – former United States Attorney, Northern District of Illinois and Co-Chair of the Commission on Capital Punishment and the Illinois General Assembly’s Capital Punishment Reform Study Committee whose reports were influential in the decision to abolish the death penalty in Illinois;
· Rob Warden – co-director of Injustice Watch, an investigative journalism organization dedicated to criminal justice reform; director emeritus of the Center on Wrongful Convictions (CWC) at Northwestern Pritzker School of Law; and a founding director of the Innocent Network, an international affiliation of organizations providing pro bono legal services to convicted persons with claims of actual innocence;
· Leonard C. Goodman – an attorney committed to representing the indigent, who has won awards for his work on behalf of the wrongfully convicted and on behalf of an Afghani man detained at Guantanamo Bay without charges or evidence of any wrongdoing.
“I am proud to have earned the support of these leaders in the criminal justice reform movement,” said Drury. “These endorsements are a testament to my long-standing commitment to fix Illinois’ broken criminal justice system.”
Criminal justice reform is a major issue in the Attorney General’s race. As a State Representative, Drury was responsible for the passage of groundbreaking legislation designed to end wrongful convictions in Illinois. As a result of his efforts, Illinois now has best-in-the-nation laws regarding the recording of custodial interrogations and eyewitness identification procedures.
In announcing their endorsements, Warden, Sullivan and Goodman had this to say about Drury:
“As someone who has worked more than three decades for criminal justice reform, I am looking for an Attorney General who has demonstrated a commitment to fixing the dysfunctional Illinois system,” said Rob Warden. “That is why I am endorsing Scott Drury for Illinois Attorney General. I have worked closely with Scott on a number of criminal justice issues and have seen his dedication to meaningful reform. Illinois needs a leader like Scott Drury.”
“I do not often get involved in politics,” Thomas Sullivan stated. “However, having worked with Scott Drury and witnessed his steadfast advocacy for criminal justice reform in the face of intense opposition, I proudly endorse him for Illinois Attorney General. Having personally worked to end the death penalty and wrongful convictions in Illinois, I know how hard it can be to enact these types of reforms. Based on my personal experience with Scott, I am confident he is the best qualified candidate to get the job done.”
“I proudly endorse Scott Drury for Illinois Attorney General,” said Leonard Goodman. “During Scott’s time in the General Assembly, he was instrumental in passing long-overdue reforms designed to end Illinois’ regrettable history of putting innocent people in prison for crimes they did not commit. Because of Scott’s work, more custodial interrogations are recorded, and police throughout the state must now follow standard eyewitness identification procedures.”
These endorsements follow another major endorsement earned by Drury earlier this week – that of the News-Gazette. The primary election takes place on March 20, 2018.
* Today…
Earlier today, Representative Scott Drury filed House Resolution 890 which calls for the immediate passage of legislation that will allow for the independent investigation many legislators have called for but not pursued. Here is a link to the resolution.
In the preamble, Representative Drury sets forth the various reasons why such an investigation is needed, including the mishandling of, and lack of transparency regarding, allegations of harassment, abuse and misconduct by Illinois Speaker of the House and his staff and attorneys. Representative Drury also sent the attached letter to every member of the General Assembly asking them to co-sponsor the resolution. In the letter, Drury makes clear that legislators’ careers “likely will be defined by how we respond to this issue. The time for blind loyalty has passed.”
The ultimate purpose of the resolution is to put in place legislation that will allow for a truly independent special counsel who can investigate allegations of sexual harassment, abuse and misconduct. The special counsel should have the power to issue subpoenas, command testimony under oath and bring appropriate civil and criminal proceedings.
Please let me know if you have any questions or if you would like to speak with Representative Drury today or over the weekend.
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* Paul Simon Public Policy Institute press release…
President Trump’s job approval was 36% positive and 62% negative. These totals included 54% who strongly disapproved, 8% who somewhat disapproved, 18% who strongly approved and 18% who somewhat approved of his performance in office. In shorthand terms he was 26% “underwater.”
Governor Rauner’s total positive rate was 31% who either somewhat approved (23%) or strongly approved (7%). His total negative rating was 63% with 39% who strongly disapproved and 24% who disapproved. This put him at 32% underwater.
“It is notable that Governor Rauner’s job approval in Illinois is somewhat more negative than President Trump’s. This is the opposite of the more usual finding of other polls in other states”, said John Jackson of the Paul Simon Institute, one of the directors of the poll.
Speaker Madigan fared somewhat worse than Governor Rauner at a 21% approval rate with 18% who somewhat approve and 3% who strongly approve. He is at 68% total disapprove with 49% strongly disapprove and 19% who somewhat disapprove.
This is the second poll in the past few weeks to show that Trump is less unpopular than Rauner.
And that Madigan issue is golden for the GOP and Democrats and will remain golden. The crosstabs show his job disapproval rating among Democrats is at 58 percent, among blacks it’s at 53 percent and among labor union members it’s at a whopping 66 percent. But be careful with those last two numbers because sample sizes were pretty low.
…Adding… DGA…
* Back to the poll…
The respondents were next asked, “Has President Donald Trump’s record in office made you more or less likely to vote this year for a Republican for Illinois executive offices including: Governor and Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, or Attorney General?”
Overall, 27% said more likely; 55% said less likely, and 11% said neither. There were 17% who said much more likely and 10% who said somewhat more likely while 13% said somewhat less likely and 43% who said much less likely.
This was followed by a similar question of whether President Trump’s record in office made you more or less likely to vote for a Republican for U. S. Congress from Illinois this year. A total of 30% chose more likely with 20% who said much more and 10% said somewhat more likely. 57% of the respondents chose less likely with 47% saying much less likely and 11% somewhat less likely. 9% said neither.
Another question asked if Trump’s record made them more or less likely to vote for a Republican for the Illinois General Assembly this year. 29% chose more likely; 56% chose less likely and 10% chose neither.
43% said much less likely and 13% said somewhat less likely. 10% said somewhat more likely and 18% selected much more likely.
If you’re one of those people who still questions why Democrats are attacking Trump in their advertising, now you know.
* And again, the methodology is questionable…
The margin of error of the entire sample of 1,001 voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. This means that if we conducted the survey 100 times, in 95 of those instances, the population proportion would be within plus or minus the reported margin of error for each subsample. For subsamples, the margin of error increases as the sample size goes down. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects. Among self-identified primary election voters, the margin is plus or minus 6 percentage points in the 259-voter sample of Republicans, and 4.5 percentage points in the sample of 472 Democrats.
Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas using the random digit dialing method. The telephone sample was provided to Customer Research International by Scientific Telephone Samples. Potential interviewees were screened based on whether they were registered voters and quotas based on area code and sex (<60% female). The sample obtained 51% male and 49% female respondents. Interviewers asked to speak to the youngest registered voter at home at the time of the call. Cell phone interviews accounted for 60 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available.
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More questions about that Simon poll
Thursday, Mar 1, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Background is here if you need it. From the Tribune’s Rick Pearson…
The [Paul Simon Public Policy Institute] survey, conducted Feb. 19 through Sunday, was made up of registered voters who identified their party preference to poll takers and said they were likely to vote in the March 20 primary. The sample was not weighted to reflect voters more likely to go to the polls based on past voting history and was not adjusted for historical racial and age demographics or turnout.
For example, African-Americans make up about one-third of the state’s Democratic primary vote. But of Democratic voters surveyed in the poll, only 19 percent were black based on those giving their race or ethnicity to pollsters. […]
Among African-American voters, a key demographic in Democratic elections, Pritzker had 45 percent to 22 percent for Kennedy and 6 percent for Biss, the poll showed. But the smaller sample of black voters also has a significantly larger margin of error.
In addition, Chicago voters cast one-third of the state’s Democratic primary votes in the 2016 presidential primary election. But only a quarter of the voters in the poll who said they would vote in the Democratic primary were from Chicago.
The Tribune almost never writes about anybody else’s polls, so this story makes me wonder if the paper is ever going to do its own poll. Usually, it does two and would have published one by now.
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* More Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll results. Remember, these are registered voters, not likely voters, which may be why they’re not matching up with some of the tracking poll results I’ve seen…
In the most recent statewide version of the Simon Poll, Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner leads challenger Jeanne Ives, a state representative from Wheaton, in the Republican Primary, by 20 points, 51 percent to 31 percent. Businessman JB Pritzker leads State Sen. Daniel Biss in the crowded Democratic primary by 10 points, 31 percent to 21 percent. Former University of Illinois Board of Trustees Chairman Chris Kennedy trails in third place, at 17 percent. […]
In hypothetical general election matchups, asked of the full sample, Gov. Rauner trails both leading Democratic candidates by similar margins: Pritzker leads the governor 50 percent to 35 percent, while Biss leads Rauner 48 percent to 34 percent.
“It’s interesting that Pritzker’s and Biss’s margins over Rauner are essentially the same in The Simon Poll,” said Charlie Leonard, an Institute visiting professor involved in the polling. “One explanation may be that in the minds of voters—who may know little about either Biss or Pritzker—the decision may come down to ‘Rauner versus not-Rauner.’ If the election were held today, I’d rather be ‘not-Rauner.’”
Both Pritzker and Biss lead the governor by wide margins in the City of Chicago and the Chicago suburbs (see Table 9), while downstate, Rauner leads Pritzer by three points and leads Biss by eight points—keeping in mind the smaller sample sizes and wider margins for error in the geographic subgroups.
“It is three weeks to go until the March 20th Primary and major events could still move these numbers,” said John S. Jackson, another designer of this poll. “However, for all the money and attention these two races have garnered, the results so far fairly faithfully reflect the bedrock strength of these two parties in the state of Illinois, and this advantages the Democrats.”
Those are not good Democratic primary numbers for Pritzker, to say the least. And Ives at 31 means she’d better get a big check soon. Rauner’s general election Downstate lead over Pritzker is very small, considering the recent trends in this state.
* Regional breakdowns…
* More…
In the poll of 1,001 registered voters across Illinois, conducted February 19 through 25, the margin for error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. It is important to remember that among self-identified primary election voters, the margin is significantly wider: plus or minus 6 percentage points in the 259-voter sample of Republicans, and 4.5 percentage points in the sample of 472 Democrats.
That’s a pretty small GOP sample.
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* From the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute…
In the Republican primary for Attorney General, Harvard Law graduate and Champaign-Urbana attorney Erika Harold, well known in Republican political circles, leads the lesser-known Gary Grasso, a DuPage County board member, 18 percent to 14 percent, with almost two-thirds (65 percent) undecided.
The Democratic primary for Attorney General is as crowded as the gubernatorial field, with eight candidates vying for the nomination. State Sen. Kwame Raoul of Chicago leads the pack with 22 percent of respondents, vs. former Gov. Pat Quinn, with 18 percent. None of the other candidates registers double-digit support, and the undecideds total 39 percent.
Biggest takeaway: Gov. Rauner needs to start giving Erika Harold some cash. Now.
* The only crosstabs included…
* These are registered voters, not likely voters, so be careful with this…
In the poll of 1,001 registered voters across Illinois, conducted February 19 through 25, the margin for error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. It is important to remember that among self-identified primary election voters, the margin is significantly wider: plus or minus 6 percentage points in the 259-voter sample of Republicans, and 4.5 percentage points in the sample of 472 Democrats.
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