* We talked about this poll a bit last week, but here’s my latest statewide newspaper column…
A recent statewide poll taken for Sen. Daniel Biss’ gubernatorial campaign showed Gov. Bruce Rauner is much less liked by Illinois voters than his fellow Republican President Donald Trump. The poll also found that the under-funded Democrat Biss actually does slightly better in a head-to-head match with Gov. Rauner than does the presumed front-runner billionaire JB Pritzker.
The Public Policy Polling survey does have one problematic issue, so let’s get to that right up front. Seventy-six percent of respondents were reached on landline phones (that’s too high for polls these days because so many people only use mobile phones) while 24 percent were “interviewed over the internet.” But this problem doesn’t totally disqualify it, so let’s go ahead and talk about it.
According to the poll, 37 percent of Illinois voters have a favorable opinion of President Trump and 58 percent gave him an unfavorable rating, while 5 percent were unsure. That seems about the expected number, considering national polls. The poll of 866 Illinois voters February 5-6 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.
What is somewhat unexpected is only 26 percent of Illinoisans have a favorable impression of Gov. Rauner while a whopping 63 percent have an unfavorable view of the state leader.
Whew.
That’s just spectacularly lousy for a governor who isn’t under criminal investigation.
Rauner is forging ahead with his re-election campaign by dumping a fortune into TV ads slamming JB Pritzker by tying him to convicted former Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Combine that with Biss’ own TV ads attacking Pritzker and it might be no surprise that Pritzker’s favorable rating is also “upside down.”
According to the poll, just 33 percent of Illinoisans have a favorable view of Pritzker while a plurality of 42 percent have an unfavorable view of the man. A quarter of voters, were still unsure, but yikes, man. The dude has spent $40+ million on his campaign, so you’d think he’d be doing better. But fewer Illinoisans have a favorable opinion of Pritzker than… President Trump. OK, he’s not nearly as disliked as Trump, but still.
The Biss campaign didn’t release its candidate’s own favorable ratings or any data on the other top tier contender Chris Kennedy. But its poll found Biss leading Gov. Rauner 47-30 in a head-to-head matchup, with 23 percent saying they were unsure.
Pritzker also led Rauner, but by slightly less than Biss’ 17-point margin. According to the poll, Pritzker is ahead of Rauner by 13 points, 48-35, with 17 percent unsure.
Whether 13 points or 17 points, a win is a win. But there are growing concerns among Democrats that Rauner’s ads will continue to deflate Pritzker’s numbers through November. Then again, Biss doesn’t have Pritzker’s billionaire cash, and, aside from Pritzker’s 15-second ads targeting him, nobody has yet “put him on blast,” as the kids say, so we don’t know how he’d survive an all-out assault like the one Pritzker is enduring.
Pritzker’s favorable rating among his fellow Democrats was a somewhat tepid 52 percent, while his unfavorable rating was 22 percent and 26 percent are undecided, despite the fact that the guy has spent tens of millions over many months to woo those particular voters. Racial crosstabs were not released.
“This confirms what we’ve known all along: voters prefer a middle-class governor in Daniel Biss rather than having to choose between billionaires Pritzker and Rauner,” said Biss campaign manager Abby Witt via press release. “Despite Pritzker outspending Daniel 20-to-1 on TV ads, Daniel continues to build momentum and is the strongest candidate to beat Bruce Rauner.”
Back to Rauner. The poll found that Gov. Rauner’s favorability rating among Republicans is much narrower than a poll released last month, which might be good news for his primary opponent, state Rep. Jeanne Ives.
A poll taken by We Ask America in mid-January had Rauner’s favorables at 65 percent and his unfavorables at 25 percent. But the new PPP poll found that just 49 percent of Republicans now have a favorable view of Rauner vs. 43 percent with an unfavorable view. That’s far less than President Trump’s score of 73 percent favorable among Republican voters and a mere 19 percent unfavorable.
Among voters who said they voted for President Trump, the new PPP found that 92 percent still view him favorably, while just 4 percent have an unfavorable view of the president. Among those same Trump voters, however, 54 percent view Gov. Rauner favorably while 36 view Rauner unfavorably and 9 percent say they’re unsure. That’s obviously not a great sign.
* I told you Friday about the PPP poll taken for Our Revolution Illinois/Chicago that had Fritz Kaegi leading Cook County Assessor Joe Berrios 44-27. The group, which supports Kaegi and appears to be leaning toward Sen. Daniel Biss, did not release its full poll, however. It also surveyed the governor’s primary…
If the Democratic Primary Election for Governor were held today and the candidates were JB Pritzker, Chris Kennedy, and Daniel Biss, who would you vote for?
JB Pritzker 31%
Chris Kennedy 25%
Daniel Biss 22%
Not sure 22%
Keep in mind that these are only Cook County Democratic primary voters.
If that poll is accurate, then Biss absolutely has to find a way to appeal to the state’s largest county’s African-American voters or he cannot win. And, remember, neither Biss nor Kennedy are yet advertising in Downstate markets.
Also, Kennedy has done almost nothing to target younger Democrats, but if this poll is accurate then his “change” message is certainly resonating with them.
Joe Berrios has been fined $41,000 recently by the Cook County Ethics Board for taking political contributions from those who do business with his office. They have received massive tax breaks while property taxes for homeowners have skyrocketed. He has taken pay-to-play to a whole new level.
More likely 6%
Less likely 69%
Doesn’t make a difference 15%
Not sure 11%
* Meanwhile, the Chicago Reader’s Adeshina Emmanuel made a big splash with his new column about that infamous FBI wiretap recording…
When I first heard the audio recording there was something that struck a chord in me, something I know I’m not alone in feeling.
Beyond the coded language, as the two men brainstorm ways to mitigate or eschew black political power, a smug and mocking tone permeates the conversation.
It’s like they’re both in on some joke.
It feels like one of them is about to laugh and say, “You know how n****rs are.”
* In other news, word has been going around for days that Rep. Jeanne Ives is about to get another $7 million or so from GOP moneybags Dick Uihlein. That would put her at $10+ million and she therefore may very well be in the hunt. She’s still the underdog, but don’t count her out if the cash comes through. Ives’ new TV ad…
* Script…
[Screen text: Brian McCann - Brother was murdered by an illegal alien]
My brother – Denny, we called him – he was crossing Kedzie Avenue…
Saul Chavez, who was severely inebriated, hit my brother and dragged him the better part of a block.
[Screen text: Dennis McCann - Killed on June 8, 2011]
My brother died a violent death.
Saul Chavez bonded out and he absconded to Mexico, where he remains to this day.
[Screen text: Governor Rauner made Illinois a sanctuary state. He stands will illegal immigrants over Illinoisans. Jeanne Ives stands with you.]
* Related…
* J.B. Pritzker continues apology tour at Black Women of Illinois forum: Martese Chism, a South Sider who attended the forum, said she didn’t accept the apology and that “the great civil rights leaders weren’t ‘safe blacks.’” Chism is a board member of National Nurses United, which endorsed Biss. “Pritzker is young, so to hear him say that after all these great leaders have done is unbelievable,” Chism said. “If he wins the primary, I’d vote for him, but he would have to invite ‘unsafe blacks,’ people who are outspoken, to a meeting and put those same people in cabinet positions. That’s how we get our fair share.” Deborah Cosey-Lane also attended the forum and said Pritzker’s focus on the labor movement, “reforming our prison system and protecting the environment” help make him the only candidate who can get the state back on track and beat Gov. Bruce Rauner. “JB acknowledged that he made a mistake and I stand with him and know that he will fight for all working families as governor,” Cosey-Lane said.
* On apology tour, Pritzker pledges an administration with ‘African-American leaders at all levels’: More than just speaking about issues of race, Pritzker went further to make a commitment of large-scale participation in his administration if he becomes governor. Saying his campaign is one “where the voices of every community are heard,” Pritzker pledged that “we will build an administration like that, with African-American leaders at all levels making the decisions that guide us forward and the decisions that affect the economic health of the African-American community.” … During a Friday appearance before the Crain’s Chicago Business editorial board, Pritzker said he believed that people “understand that you can make a mistake, but that you’re actions over decades are really what speaks louder than a single conversation.” “I’m not going to get every vote in the African-American community, but I feel very strongly that I’ve earned the support and (am) receiving the support of many, many people,” he said.
* Under siege, Pritzker rips Rauner but is vague on Madigan: If elected, Pritzker said he would submit legislation to impose term limits for top legislative leaders. But asked about what he would do to insure that the new maps are not gerrymandered like current ones, Pritzker said only that he would back an eventual constitutional amendment and “work with the Legislature” in the short run. He did not say he would hire his own remap consultant, hold public hearings or submit his own plan. But, in an answer to a question from Crain’s, he did say he’d consult with Republicans.
* Democratic Candidates Attend Church Services to Shore Up African-American Support: Today, Bishop Trotter told his congregation why he told Pritzker he was no longer welcome at Sweet Holy Spirit. Trotter says “we have an insult level” and “what he did was wrong.” Pritzker has asked Trotter to pray for him and hopes to meet this week with Trotter. Trotter said “I decided to un-invite him” because “if you don’t stand for something, you fall for anything.” … [Kennedy] said “dignity comes with the job, dignity that comes with respect” and told the Holy Spirit parishioners that he sees government’s role is to “bring everyone along” and “we see government as an extension of that family.” … [Biss] also introduced Wallace, who spoke of the candidates who are “coming up on our television screens… with empty promises” and “never every come back and never being held accountable.” Wallace noted that in the African American community she and Biss want to “amplify their voice” because “we deliver votes time and time again; get nothing that’s promised back to us.”
Our Revolution Illinois/Chicago released a new poll by Public Policy Polling on the Democratic race for Cook County Assessor in the March 20th primary election. The poll is the first to be publicly released in the race for Assessor. Since June 2017, Our Revolution Illinois/Chicago has made fixing the assessment process a key priority.
The polling memo shows that Our Revolution-endorsed candidate Fritz Kaegi with a large 44-27 lead over incumbent and Cook County Democratic Party Chairman Joe Berrios. After voters are informed about both candidates, Kaegi’s lead jumps to 51% while Berrios’ support shrinks to 20%.
Berrios has overseen a property tax assessment system that unfairly overassesses homeowners in working and middle-class neighborhoods—especially in Black and Latino communities—while giving tax breaks to billionaires and owners of downtown skyscrapers.
“Voters are tired of pay-to-play and corruption by Joe Berrios and are ready for new leadership,” said Our Revolution Illinois/Chicago co-chair, Clem Balanoff. “Fritz will fix the broken system that punishes working and middle-class families, Blacks and Latinos, and will bring fairness and transparency to the Assessor’s office.”
“It is long past time for the Democratic Party to keep attempting to prop-up and cover-up for Joe Berrios. Institutional racism is not acceptable. Joe must go.” concluded Balanoff.
Joe Berrios was recently fined $41,000 for violating the Cook County Ethics Ordinance by taking political contributions in excess of legal limits. Joe Berrios has raised over $5 million for political committees he controls, over half of which comes from those who do business with his office. Joe Berrios has taken pay-to-play to a whole new level.
PPP surveyed likely Democratic primary voters in Cook County from February 6-7, 2018.
Our Revolution Illinois is dedicated to building on Bernie Sanders’ core set of values — the values and agenda that electrified Illinois voters in the March 2016 primary and won Bernie Sanders 24 of 50 wards in Chicago, 79 of Illinois’ 102 counties, 11 of 18 congressional districts and almost a million votes across the state.
* Polling memo…
From: Anniken Williams, Public Policy Polling
To: Interested Parties
Subject: Fritz Kaegi Has Big Lead For Cook County Asssessor
Date: February 8, 2018
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that Democratic candidate Fritz Kaegi has a big lead in the upcoming Democratic primary election for Cook County Assessor. Kaegi is getting 44%, in contrast to Joseph Berrios who only receives 27% of the vote. After voters are informed about both candidates, Kaegi’s lead increases from 17 points to a 31 point lead over Berrios. 51% of voters say they will vote for Kaegi in the March election for Cook County Assessor, while Berrios’ support shrinks to 20% on the informed ballot.
Key findings from the survey include:
- Cook County voters are impressed by Kaegi’s promises to clean things up. A majority (52%) say they are more likely to vote for Kaegi after learning that he will clean things up by making tax assessments fair and ending pay-to-play policies currently in place in the office.
- When voters learn that Joe Berrios has been fined $41,000 recently by the Cook County Ethics Board for taking political contributions from those who do business with his office, fully 69% say they’re less likely to support him.
PPP surveyed 757 likely Democratic primary voters in Cook Co., IL from February 6-7, 2018. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.6%. This poll was conducted by automated telephone interviews for Our Revolution Illinois.
