* I just now saw this on Twitter, but a few days ago Dave McKinney at WBEZ took a deeper look at that new PPP poll conducted with the Sun-Times. Check it out…
As reported, Pritzker is doing well in Chicago and suburban Cook, is narrowly ahead in the collars and playing Bailey to a draw downstate. It’s Chicago: 78-12% Pritzker; suburban Cook: 47-36% Pritzker; collars: 43-40% Pritzker; and downstate: a 40-40% tie.
Given how red Illinois’ political map is south of I-80, there was a broad feeling Bailey would do well downstate - like ahead by double-digits there. But this snapshot of where things stand is bad news for Bailey. One GOP source said: “He’s basically a south of I-64 candidate.”
On the other hand, Pritzker’s collar county numbers — 43% — are under his 2018 performance, when he got 48% of the votes cast in DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties to help beat Republican Bruce Rauner. In that election, Pritzker won those counties except for McHenry.
There’s also a longstanding rule of thumb when it comes to Chicago for statewide GOP hopefuls. At least 20% of the vote is needed to win. Bailey’s 12% won’t cut it. In the last 20 years, the only Republican to win the governorship was Rauner. In 2014, he got 21% of the city vote.
For reference, here’s the Chicago vote percentage that the losing GOP gubernatorial candidates got in the other four cycles since 2002. Rauner in 2018: 15%; Bill Brady in 2010: 17%; Judy Baar Topinka in 2006: 16%; and Jim Ryan in 2002: 19%. Bailey is underperforming all of them.
Bailey’s city numbers per the poll make one wonder whether there’s fallout from his frequent “hellhole” references for Chicago and whether his tough-on-crime talk is truly moving any voters here despite the surges in car-jackings and armed robberies.
By race, Pritzker is up in all categories: Hispanic/Latino 49-43% Pritzker, white 41-40% Pritzker, African-American 85-4% Pritzker and other 59-18% Pritzker.
Same is true with gender. Pritzker is ahead of Bailey with women 55-30%, which is one of the largest gaps I remember seeing in Illinois and no doubt attributable in large part to where both candidates are on the issue of abortion. Among men, Pritzker is ahead of Bailey 44-38%.
By party, the numbers are interesting and perhaps reflective of Bailey’s struggles to get the GOP to unify around him after the primary. Among Republican voters, 73% support Bailey, compared to 12% for Pritzker. By contrast, Pritzker is ahead of Bailey with Dem voters 91-3%.
Something a bit hard to interpret involves where 2020 Trump and Biden voters land in the 2022 governor’s race. Pritzker has 86% of Biden voters, but Bailey has 77% of Trump voters. Why that Trump support isn’t higher, given how Bailey has courted Trump, is a bit of a curveball.
By education, Pritzker leads Bailey in most categories. High school diploma or less: 41-38% Pritzker; some college but didn’t finish: 50-35% Pritzker; 2-yr college degree: 44-37% Bailey; 4-yr college degree: 58-27% Pritzker; post-graduate degree: Pritzker 63-23%. […]
One closing thought before shutting down tonight. The down-ballot statewide races are regarded as generic ballot barometers. So let’s look at the attorney general’s race. Incumbent Democrat, Kwame Raoul, is up over Republican 44-35% statewide. But Devore is leading Raoul in the collar counties 43-41%, essentially a dead heat. Why does that matter? Because the collar counties are ground zero for the two contested state Supreme Court seats. Republicans need to take both seats to gain control of the court for the first time since 1969.
The data in this poll is one snapshot, and it could be off. But if the Raoul-DeVore collar county numbers are reflective of reality, it’s even more reason to keep an eye on those Supreme Court races. They could be competitive.
Just a note of caution that small data subsets have very high margins of error. Still, it obviously ain’t all unicorns and rainbows for the Democrats here.
