* This is Proft’s pollster, who was bringing back much the same numbers as other pollsters during the primary…

.@Fabrizio_Lee GE survey IL GOV race:
Generic ballot: Dem +2
Head-to-head: Pritzker +7
Among those who've heard of both: Bailey +3
Among Independents: Bailey +19
Biden approval: 43-56 (-13)
Right track/wrong track: 40-59 (-19)

A tough but winnable race. A dogfight. @ilgop #twill pic.twitter.com/VQRIj6GR8B

— Dan Proft (@DanProft) June 29, 2022

Full memo is here. Right direction is 40 percent and wrong track is 59 percent. That’s obviously not great, but the result has vastly improved over the years. Back in 2018, after four years of Bruce Rauner, it was 9 percent right direction and 84 percent wrong track.

Also, will Bailey have the financial resources to take advantage of these numbers?

* Methodology…

Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted a survey of 800 likely 2022 general election voters from June 20th – 21st statewide in Illinois. The interviews were split 35% cell phone/35% SMS to web/30% landline phone, using live operators for the landline phone portion. Geography was matched to past voter turnout in recent midterm general elections. Gender, age, education, party affiliation, and race/ethnicity were matched to demographic profiles of likely voters based on the voter file, state data, exit poll and VoterCast data, and DataTrust modeling. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of known Illinois voters. The margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for 800 voters is ±3.46%.

The sample was light on Latinos, a bit too heavy on whites. Nothing that would hugely change things, though.

…Adding… Some of y’all are reading way too much into this poll. Polls are not necessarily predictive of voter behavior months from now. Polls can only tell you what people are thinking the moment they’re asked. If post-primary polls were totally reliable, Judy Baar Topinka would’ve beaten Rod Blagojevich in 2006. Instead, JBT lost by 10 points.

So, take a breath. And try to analyze this in the moment. Things change in politics all the time. And remember that Blagojevich buried Topinka in TV ads to reverse his early polling deficit.

…Adding… As noted in comments, this poll was taken before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, so, again, everybody on all sides should just take a breath already.

…Adding… Also as noted in comments, this doesn’t include any post-primary “bounce” for Bailey.