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Fifth poll has Bailey leading, this time by 20; Irvin slips to third place

Thursday, Jun 23, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The last poll taken in this race is here. The last Fabrizio Lee poll is here. New one…

ILGOP Gov survey@Fabrizio_Lee
6/20-6/22
N=500 LV
+/- 4.4%

Bailey 37
Sullivan 17
Irvin 14
Rabine 7
Schimpf 4

— Dan Proft (@DanProft) June 23, 2022

Since the last Fabrizio Lee poll, taken three weeks ago, Bailey’s lead has grown by 13 points. Since the last public poll, taken 10-13 days ago, Bailey’s lead is up by 2 points, which is likely just background noise.

Sullivan’s support has grown by just four points since the last Fabrizio Lee poll. He’s up five points since the last public poll.

Irvin’s support has dropped by six points since the last Fabrizio Lee poll, and it’s fallen by three points since the last public poll.

Your thoughts?

…Adding… I told you about Sullivan’s ad buy yesterday, but here’s Politico…

Jesse Sullivan is hoping for a big surge in the final days of the statewide GOP race for governor, though you wouldn’t know it from his TV ad buys. According to ad spending documentation provided to Playbook, Sullivan is spending $680,000 over the next week on TV, but nearly all of it — $568,000 — is being spent in the Chicago area.

Similar move: Fellow Republican Richard Irvin also pulled back on advertising downstate to focus on Chicago. This week, Irvin is spending $430,000, with $412,000 of it in Chicago.

Darren Bailey, the GOP frontrunner in recent polls, is spending $312,000 in Chicago and another $160,000 across the rest of the state. The downstate Republican is seen as already having sewn up the southern part of Illinois.

And in case you’re wondering, Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker is spending more than all of the Republicans combined — about $1 million in the Chicago area and $600,000 across the rest of the state.

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Trump praises “very MAGA” Mary Miller, thinks Bailey might have the best shot against Pritzker

Thursday, Jun 23, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Greg Bishop scored an interview with former President Donald Trump ahead of his Quincy visit. Greg’s first question was “Why endorse Congresswoman Mary Miller over Congressman Rodney Davis?”…

Well, she’s somebody I’ve gotten to know. She’s a high quality person. She’s been all for me all the way. And you know, you have to remember that, and that she’s just a very good person and a very MAGA person. And I said I’d do it a long time ago. Rodney said some very negative things about me at points. And I said, ‘Well, you know, you got to remember that also.’ And Mary’s been just terrific, a tremendous supporter.

Please pardon all transcription errors.

* “Among the Republicans running, which do you think is going to pose the greatest challenge to the Democratic incumbent Gov. JB Pritzker?”…

Well, it would look like Bailey, I haven’t made an endorsement, but he’s doing a good job. A lot of people are liking him. And I think that, you know, he would potentially have a shot. Pritzker has been a terrible, terrible governor. He has done such a bad job, and with the lock-downs, and with everything else that you would know better than anybody. But I think maybe Bailey would be the one. I don’t know how the polls are. But he seems to be formidable and could maybe give it a good shot. Because, you know, it’s a little bit hard to win up there for a Republican in that way. So let’s see what happens. But I think Bailey, maybe.

* While we’re on this fall election topic, check out this extremely odd “polling memo” that I cannot believe an actual reporter fell for…

The pollster does a matchup between Pritzker and Sullivan without even disclosing Sullivan’s numbers, and only reveals Pritzker’s numbers in the Chicago media market in comparison to Bailey. What? I’m thinking the Downstate numbers might be different.

That whole polling memo should’ve been dismissed out of hand. It’s a disgrace. Sullivan is obviously trying anything to convince people he’s surging, but I’ve yet to see any hard numbers to support that claim, or even hear about them. And if Sullivan had those numbers, he’d surely release them. And those most def ain’t it.

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