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Two new polls have Trump maintaining lead, Rubio tanking

Sunday, Mar 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* For context, the Tribune poll (March 2-6) had Donald Trump leading with 32 percent, Cruz at 22, Rubio with 21 and Kasich at 18 with 7 percent were undecided. The We Ask America poll (March 7-8) had Trump at 33, Cruz with 20, Kasich at 18, Rubio with 11 and 16 percent undecided.

* CBS

* Methodology

This CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on 5,300 interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Florida, Illinois, Ohio. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.

It’s difficult to say with certainty whether Cruz is surging because of our next poll result. But, hey, these races can and do turn on a dime, so nobody really knows what’s going to happen. Friday night’s UIC rally could make a difference, or not. Trump is clearly hoping it will, considering his remarks since then, but so do his opponents.

* NBC

* Methodology

In Illinois, the poll surveyed 1,968 registered voters (plus-minus 2.2 percentage points), 529 likely Democratic primary voters (plus-minus 4.3 percentage points) and 421 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).

* Related…

* @moniquegarcia: State Rep. Cabello introduces Trump, defends his record on minorities. Points to his Mexican heritage but says above all, “I am American.”

* @ChiTribCloutSt: At the Trump rally, a woman sang the Star-Spangled Banner. And now state Rep. John Cabello is endorsing Trump, citing gun rights support.

* Trump backlash swift and loud, but does it matter?: “Donald Trump created that hostile environment,” said state Rep. Ed Sullivan, a Mundelein Republican and backer of Ohio Gov. John Kasich. He predicted a backlash against Trump. But if there isn’t one, Sullivan said, “God help us.”

  17 Comments      


Two polls show Bernie Sanders surging in Illinois as primary nears

Sunday, Mar 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* For context, the Tribune’s poll (March 2-6) had this race at 67-25 for Clinton, while the We Ask America poll (March 7-8) had Clinton’s lead at 62-25. Things can change fast in presidential primaries, so a Sanders surge wouldn’t be a huge surprise, especially after what happened to Clinton in Michigan.

* With that out of the way, let’s start with this new survey…


* From CBS

In Illinois [Sanders] is leading among white voters and is supported by almost one quarter of African Americans. In Illinois Sanders leads Clinton on the metric of being honest and trustworthy, and is helped by a majority of voters wishing to switch to more progressive policies than those of the Obama administration.

But keep this in mind

This CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on 5,300 interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Florida, Illinois, Ohio. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.

Not loving that type of poll, but whatever.

Also, the high margin of error means this is still anybody’s ballgame, but if Sanders is indeed surging, the trend is not Clinton’s friend (and, yes, those are hack phrases, but I felt like using them anyway - it’s the weekend).

* On to NBC

She’s above 50, but, again, that apparent Sanders surge must have her worried and is probably why I see Sanders’ ads all over my teevee right now. Sanders has been smartly making the horribly unpopular Mayor Rahm Emanuel a major campaign issue, saying recently that he’s happy Rahm didn’t endorse him, telling reporters that if he lived in Chicago he’d be involved in the “Resign Rahm” movement and running ads blasting Emanuel. As we’ve already seen, numerous legislative candidates have attempted to tie their opponents to Emanuel in their Democratic primary campaigns this season.

* From NBC

The size of Clinton’s lead in all three states directly correlates to her advantage with African-American Democratic voters - 57 points in Florida (77 percent to 20 percent), 48 points in Ohio (72 percent to 24 percent) and 39 points in Illinois (67 percent to 28 percent).

Among Latinos, Clinton holds just a five-point edge over Sanders in Florida, 51 percent to 46 percent, while Sanders leads Clinton among Latinos in Illinois, 64 percent to 30 percent.

That huge Sanders lead over Clinton among Latinos here is somewhat unexpected, but he has the strong endorsement of people like Chuy Garcia.

* Methodology

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls in Florida, Illinois and Ohio were conducted March 4-10… In Illinois, the poll surveyed 1,968 registered voters (plus-minus 2.2 percentage points), 529 likely Democratic primary voters (plus-minus 4.3 percentage points) and 421 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).

  45 Comments      


Trump Chicago roundup

Saturday, Mar 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* Two completely polarized views of what happened in Chicago last night…



* Walsh is a Trump supporter, and he took what is usually the standard conservative line: Blame the black, brown and hippie protesters. But the right is split because Trump is still fighting off Republican presidential rivals. Some of Trump’s GOP opponents pounced on him for inciting violence and Fox News at times seemed unsure about what slant to take last night. Also, check this out…

To: Illinois Media
From: Illinois Patriotic Veterans, Inc.
RE: Trump Hate Speech
Date: 3.12.2016

Illinois Patriotic Veterans, Inc. condemns the continued political hate speech of Donald Trump which last night resulted in discord and violence at Trump’s Chicago rally which he cancelled.

The First Amendment does not protect Trump’s speech when he suggests violence against those who have protested at some of his recent events.

Last night, Trump ran away from the violence which he himself created in Chicago, just as he ran away in 1968 from his military obligation to defend our Country.

Jim Nalepa, Illinois Chairman
Paul Caprio, Director

Paul Caprio ain’t no leftie. At all.

…Adding… Caprio’s group has a new radio ad which rips Trump a new one…

* Moving right along, as I noted on Friday, some early arrests were made at the rally. But the anti-Trump folks were there in force, and their chants appeared to halt further arrests.

* And speaking of arrests, a journalist for CBS was busted last night for no apparent reason

Sopan Deb was on the floor of the arena as tensions built - raw emotions on both sides.

He interviews both protesters and Trump supporters.

Police clear the pavilion, and the streets outside are quickly blocked.

Tensions are high. Deb shoots video of an arrest. Police surround a man whose face is bloodied.

Protesters scream at police.

Deb says he was thrown to the ground and handcuffed, without notice or warning.

Illinois State Police charged him with resisting arrest although there is no sign of that on the video.

* But the Illinois State Police say they had no role in the arrest…

Hi Rich

The CBS reporter was not arrested by ISP. The officers in the video making the arrest are uniformed CPD.

M/Sgt. Matt Boerwinkle
Illinois State Police
Chief Public Information Officer

* As you probably saw elsewhere, Trump said he canceled the event after discussing things over with law enforcement

“I spoke with law enforcement and made [the call to cancel] in conjuction with law enforcement, and I think we made a wise decision,” Trump said in a phone interview on MSNBC.

* The Chicago Police Department said they had nothing to do with it

However, CPD spokesman Anthony Guglielmi said the department never told the Trump campaign there was a security threat at the venue. He said the department had sufficient manpower at the scene to handle any situation.

Mr Guglielmi said the decision to cancel the event was made “independently” by the campaign.

Interim Supt John Escalante confirmed in a press conference that police became aware the event was being cancelled at 6:30pm, adding: “The Chicago Police Department had no role, we were not consulted or provided an opinion as to whether or not the event should be cancelled.

The U of I police claimed they were surprised at the “abrupt” cancellation of the event. The Illinois State Police’s spokesman I quoted above told me “I’m not aware of any advice given to his campaign.”

* And there is some speculation that Trump never actually even arrived in Chicago…


* Mark Brown was supremely unimpressed with the anti-Trump crowd

To be clear, I’m glad people came out to protest Trump. I was hoping for it.

But as I watched an elderly man with a walker trying in vain to return to his car because idiots were running wild through the parking garage where many of Trump’s fans parked their cars, I was ashamed.

“This is what free speech looks like!” shouted a leader of the protesters on his megaphone while the old man asked the police if it was safe yet to get to his car.

I hope this isn’t what free speech looks like.

Agreed, but when covering a big, fast-moving event like that, it’s easy to become overwhelmed by the brief moments that you, yourself see.

* Related…

* Who is Jedidiah Brown, the pastor who stormed Donald Trump’s rally in Chicago?

* @BYP_100: One of our beloved members was beat & hospitalized by police at anti-Trump protest in Chicago. Taken straight from ER to jail. #FreeTimothy

* Donald Trump, Chicago, and the Lessons of 1968

* @PhilipRucker: Loud boos at Cleveland rally venue when announcement instructs Trump fans not to physically harm protesters.

  67 Comments      


Proft’s closing ads in McCann district

Saturday, Mar 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* The first closer by Dan Proft’s Liberty Principles PAC is called “Dishonor” and hits Sen. Sam McCann hard because he “lied his way into office… We can’t trust him again.” Oof

* The second is a positive spot for McCann’s Republican primary opponent Bryce Benton, who Proft claims will “challenge Madigan at every turn”

* Related…

* Sam McCann campaign hits Bryce Benton on PCCC financial losses

  16 Comments      


Two new TV ads in Madigan district

Saturday, Mar 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* The first ad was recorded off WGN TV last night by a subscriber using his mobile phone. The ad was paid for by Blair Hull’s Illinois United for Change PAC. It hits House Speaker Michael Madigan on his property tax business, whacks him for not increasing the minimum wage “even though voters approved it,” and says one of his “top lieutenants took bribes from the company that makes red light cameras.” It’s a pretty good ad

If they had started running it a week or two ago and had lots more money behind it (from what I can tell, only about a hundred grand has been spent so far), that ad could’ve left a major mark.

* The second TV ad is somewhat unusual. This spot was also recorded by a subscriber using his mobile phone and it features Congressman Luis Gutierrez speaking Spanish. Check out how “soft” the ad makes Madigan appear as he speaks with his constituents

…Adding… Helpfully translated by the original sender…

Gutierrez: “When it comes to protecting our working families, few work harder than Mike Madigan. Michael Madigan supported a tax on millionaires in order to create a billion dollar fund to guarantee a better education for our children and their success. He has also demanded that banks give homeowners more time to make their payments. March 15 is our opportunity to vote for Mike Madian.”

  2 Comments      


Sen. Mark Kirk says he’ll endorse Trump if nominated

Saturday, Mar 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* Pearson

Lost in the coverage of Friday night’s protests was the announcement that Republican U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, viewed as one of the most politically vulnerable senators seeking re-election, said he would support Trump if he won the GOP presidential nomination. Kirk’s comments came during an interview with WMAQ-Ch. 5 before the Trump event was called off.

* According to the Duckworth campaign, Kirk told Channel 5 “If he’s the nominee, I certainly would,” when asked about endorsing Trump.

The Duckworth campaign’s response…

“Two men are making news in Illinois tonight. One of them recently said people ‘drive faster through’ black neighborhoods, called a U.S. Senator a ‘bro with no ho,’ and suggested President Obama’s end goal for the Iranian nuclear agreement was to ‘get nukes to Iran.’ The other man is Donald Trump.

…Adding… The video clip

* But Sen. Kirk’s timing was unfortunate, to say the least

Republican presidential candidates Marco Rubio and John Kasich suggested Saturday they may not support Donald Trump if he becomes the GOP nominee, as violence at the front-runner’s rallies deepened the party’s chaotic chasm.

Rubio told supporters that while he was currently sticking with his pledge to back the nominee if he wasn’t the party’s choice, “it’s getting harder every day.”

Kasich said the “toxic environment” Trump is creating “makes it very, extremely difficult” to support him.

“To see Americans slugging themselves at a political rally deeply disturbed me,” Kasich said while campaigning in Cincinnati. “We’re better than that.”

Rubio and Kasich have previously committed to backing Trump should he win the Republican nomination, despite reservations about his qualifications. Their extraordinary shift came hours after clashes between Trump supporters and protesters Friday night in Chicago, and just a few days before Tuesday’s elections in five delegate-rich states.

  12 Comments      


Reader comments closed for the weekend

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I may very well be posting this weekend, but I don’t wanna deal with comments, so we’ll all jabber together on Monday unless something big happens.

In the meantime, the ACLU of Illinois urged the University of Illinois at Chicago earlier today to make sure protesters’ rights were respected at tonight’s big Donald Trump rally. According to the group, the university has responded…

They went out of their way to assure that they are committed to student safety and free speech, and that they have developed protocols to address the issues that we raised in the letter. They are going to use video cameras to document any incidents as thoroughly as possible and have conveyed to the police that people should not be removed unless they are truly disruptive. We are hopeful that some of the incidents elsewhere will not be repeated here. We will see how it goes.

But…


Follow along on Twitter here and here. Be warned, though. There’s some not exactly family friendly stuff in some of those tweets.

* After all the craziness this week, here’s an Oscar the Puppy photo to help us ease our way into the weekend…

* Later, gator….

They have the time, the time of their life

  Comments Off      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraiser and event list

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

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Politicians behaving badly

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The funniest thing about this story is that Harris claims to be the one who called the cops

Suburban police officers were to called to a west suburban community center on Wednesday in response to a basketball court fight involving a Democratic candidate for the Illinois legislature who allegedly was “out of control,” according to the police report obtained by The Illinois Observer.

Franklin Park police responded to a call regarding a fight at the Franklin Park Community Center during a basketball game that included ex-Forest Park Commissioner Chris Harris who is running for the Illinois House against incumbent State Rep. Chris Welch (D-Hillside).

The police report said officers were called to the scene and that community center “employees” allegedly wanted Harris “removed from the property” because he was’ “arguing with the subjects on the basket ball court.”

The report said Harris was allegedly “elbowing” players and that the game’s referee alleged that “Harris was out of control and was asked to leave the game and he refused and bumped the ref intentionally and refused to leave the game even after his team mates ask him to leave.”

The responding officer also “smelled alcohol on Harris’ breath and he was offered a PBT test and refused,” according to the report that also noted that, “Harris was sent on his way.” He was not arrested.

The police report is here.

The not so funny thing about the story is that a candidate was spending his time playing basketball just a few days before the election.

Dude, get a clue.

…Adding… State Senate candidate Bob Fioretti claims to be an adjunct professor at NIU’s law school. Um, no

Yet the NIU Law School faculty directory does not list Fioretti’s name.

Employment records provided by NIU in response to a Freedom of Information request show that Fioretti was hired to teach a class on State and Local Government for a four month period in the Spring of 2000. For this he was paid a $2,000 honorarium and reimbursed for travel expenses.

In other words, Fioretti taught a single class at NIU 16 years ago, and based on that is claiming that he “remains” a professor today.

* Related…

* Complaints filed against PAC backing Phillips

  22 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Ask and ye shall receive…


  57 Comments      


Our sorry state

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Mark Brown

About 80,000 fewer children are being served by the state’s Child Care Assistance Program than in the previous year, according to the advocacy group Illinois Action for Children, which met here this week.

* David Glassman, the president of Eastern Illinois University, spoke to a Senate committee yesterday

And today, he said, will be the last day of work for 177 civil service employees at EIU.

“Of these 177 civil service employees, some are single parents, some are dealing with health issues, and in some cases the layoffs will affect both husband and wife in the same household,” Glassman said. “I wish to be clear that these positions are being eliminated not because they are unessential. We need them. And not because we are rightsizing the university. That already has been accomplished.

  22 Comments      


New CUB Poll: 84% Oppose Exelon Nuclear Bailout

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Nearly 1,900 people responded to the recent Citizen’s Utility Board survey about Exelon’s push to bailout its nuclear plants.  Here is how CUB put it:

 

    “Exelon says keeping its nuclear plants open will fight climate change—and they need economic help. Opponents say Exelon just wants bigger profits.

     Should Illinois give unprofitable nuclear plants more money if it helps fight climate change?

     No: 1,583 (about 84 percent)

    Yes: 298 (about 16 percent)”

—————————————————

Illinois still has no budget, the state’s finances and services are in shambles, the social safety net is being decimated but Exelon STILL wants the Legislature to pass a huge BAILOUT.

Just say no to the Exelon Bailout.

www.noexelonbailout.com

BEST Coalition is a 501C4 nonprofit group of dozens of business, consumer and government groups, as well as large and small businesses. Visit www.noexelonbailout.com.

  Comments Off      


Illinois payroll revised upward by 73,800 jobs

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Greg Hinz

Newly released employment data undermines Gov. Bruce Rauner’s core argument in the state’s budget war: that Illinois’ economy is broken and requires major structural change in government.

The data suggest that while job growth here continues to lag the nation’s, it is considerably better than suggested in reports issued by Rauner’s Department of Employment Security and by the governor himself.

The figures indicate Illinois did not lose jobs in 2015, as IDES previously reported, but in fact gained nearly 50,000. And it suggests that Rauner’s claim in his recent State of the State speech—that “Jobs and people are leaving our state. . . .We have fewer jobs today than we had at the turn of this century”—probably is not true.

* Buried in the IDES press release…

Each year, the BLS benchmarks nonfarm payroll estimates to universal counts derived primarily from unemployment insurance tax reports. This year, revisions conducted revealed that nonfarm payrolls grew by +88,000 in 2014 rather than +66,800 and jobs grew by +49,600 in 2015 rather declining by -3,000. Private nonfarm payrolls regained their January 2008 peak levels in July 2015. However, the BLS’ revisions in nonfarm payroll employment show Illinois is still short -16,800 jobs in reaching the January 2008 peak employment level.

* Back to Hinz

In other words, Illinois actually gained 138,000 jobs over the past two years, up 2.3 percent. That’s a bit over half the national rate in the same period, and 2015 nationally was the best year in decades for job gains.

But 138,000 new jobs arguably is a lot better than Rauner suggested when he ran against then-Gov. Pat Quinn in 2014.

* But it wasn’t all semi-good news, as Progress Illinois reports

Illinois’ unemployment rate ticked up to 6.3 percent in January, while the state added a net 1,500 jobs, the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) said Thursday.

The state’s jobless rate increased from 6.1 percent in December. There were 412,600 unemployed Illinoisans in January, a 3 percent increase from the previous month.

Illinois had a higher unemployment rate in January than the national figure of 4.9 percent. […]

“In January, the two industry sectors with the largest gains in employment were: Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+3,600) and Educational and Health Services (+3,200),” reads an IDES news release. “The three industry sectors with the largest declines in employment were: Government (-2,600); Other Services (-2,100); and Financial Activities (-1,700). “

…Adding… From the Illinois Policy Institute…

Hi Rich,

I noticed your blog post on the BLS jobs revisions. This happens every spring to change previous years.

Greg Hinz’s article has some inaccuracies in it. In particular:

    The figures indicate Illinois did not lose jobs in 2015, as IDES previously reported, but in fact gained nearly 50,000. And it suggests that Rauner’s claim in his recent State of the State speech—that “Jobs and people are leaving our state. . . .We have fewer jobs today than we had at the turn of this century”—probably is not true.

Hinz is incorrect about the “turn of the century.” The revised data is available right on IDES website here. Illinois still has fewer jobs than at the turn of the century by 33,100. There are also still 16,800 fewer jobs than before the recession began.

Something similar happened last year, when the revised data was released in the spring of 2015, it was better than initially reported in 2014.

Further, the speculation of Gov. Rauner manipulating the data is a little weird, especially in regards to how this revised data was released. In general, the source for all this data is federal BLS numbers. The numbers used in IDES’ releases are from BLS and published the exact same on BLS’ site. And in this case, BLS hasn’t even put out the revised numbers yet, so IDES is putting out the revisions ahead of BLS.

We will publish more thoroughly on this when BLS releases data for all states on Monday. As of now, BLS has not updated their site to reflect the revisions for Illinois or any other states.

Michael Lucci
Vice President of Policy

Illinois Policy Institute
Illinois Policy Action

Agreed on the data manipulation stuff. IDES was simply using federal numbers.

  53 Comments      


Garbage in, garbage out

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Illinois Policy Institute’s news service

Three of Gov. Bruce Rauner’s agenda items have traction with voters, at least according to polling data released Wednesday by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. […]

    * 57 percent said they would vote for right-to-work or open-shop laws, while 4 percent said they leaned toward such laws. Thirty-three percent said they were opposed or leaning toward opposition. Seven 7 percent gave an answer of “undecided” or said they didn’t know.

“That one was really pretty surprising,” Jackson said. “This is not a state where you’d expect people to favor right-to-work by anywhere near that margin. I don’t know if it’s linked with Rauner’s having campaigned about this so much or what, but I do think it’s surprising.

“I’m not entirely sure what to make of it other than the possibility of Rauner’s having campaigned on it so hard for so long,” Jackson said.

Another possible factor, Jackson said: Union membership has declined in Illinois and in the nation. It is down nationally from a high of about 37 percent to about 12 percent.

“There are not as many union households to understand what unions mean and why unions would be vehemently opposed to (Illinois becoming) a right-to-work state,” Jackson said.

* From the Illinois Policy Institute’s radio news network

Better Government Association’s Andy Shaw told WMAY Springfield the finding calls into question Illinois’ status as a pro-union state.

“What you’re really hearing is people thinking that if (right-to-work) drives down the cost of government somewhat, it’s a good thing, because people feel their taxes are not being well enough spent,” Shaw said.

Meanwhile, Shaw said, there is another take on right-to-work: “Of course the other side says it’s a way of driving the wages and the lifestyle of the middle class down.”

When breaking that number down along party lines, 55 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of Republicans and 65 percent of independent voters say they lean toward right-to-work, according to the poll.

* OK, here’s the question asked by the Simon Institute…

Some states have passed right-to-work or open shop laws that say workers have the right to hold their jobs in a unionized workplace, whether they join the labor union or not. Would you vote for or against this proposal?

Ugh.

* I e-mailed David Yepsen at the Institute a couple of days ago to say I thought his poll question was bogus. He asked how I would’ve worded it and I replied…

How about something along the lines of receiving the full benefits of union membership without having to pay a dime for any of the union’s services?

Yepsen agreed.

This isn’t about some “right to freedom of association” it’s about a right to freeload. And it’s wrong.

Jackson and Shaw should’ve both known better.

…Adding… As pointed out in comments, this question merely affirms the current “fair share” system. You don’t have to join the union, but you still have to pay for the service. And that makes the Simon Institute question even more bogus.

  60 Comments      


$8.75 million spent/available in just two legislative primaries

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Whew…


* Stratton just received a big influx of cash from some of Rep. Dunkin’s House Democratic colleagues…


She also got $50K from Emanuel pal Michael Sacks.

* And IllinoisGO is still pumping cash…


…Adding… From Kent Redfield…

Hi Rich,

I keep trying to be retired and this stuff just sucks me back in.

Two points of reference

My quick back of the envelope figures using the same metrics as the Racing Form shows the State’s Attorneys race in Cook County at $5.33 million. I know it is three candidates, but the idea of spending as much or more on a primary in a house district as is being spent on a contested county-wide primary race in Cook County is beyond stunning.

Also it appears the most expensive legislative primary before this year was the H-26 Mitchell/Travis race from 2014 at around $1.2 million. (H-39 Berrios/Guzzardi and H-81 Sanddack/Matune in the same year were close to $1 million)

It is really hard to overstate how big money from individuals and independent expenditures have reshaped the political landscape since 2013.

Before my head explodes I am off to the driving range to work on something I kind of understand and maybe can fix - my slice.

I hope all is well with your health and you are still working hard on that new life style.

Take care, Kent

* In other campaign news, it appears that Rep. Mike Smiddy is not happy that Rep. Verschoore disclosed (or, according to Smiddy, lied about) their private converation because he just upped the ante…


More on this race below.

* Tweet of the week…


* Related…

* QC lawmakers spar over campaign contribution in 72nd Ill. House race: “He said ‘You’re probably not gonna be happy, but I got a call over the weekend to make a donation [to Mike Halpin].’ So, I asked him, I said ‘Did the call come from the Speaker?’ and he said ‘No.’ And I said ‘Did it come from Will Cousineau?’ and he said ‘Yes.’”

* Halpin TV ad partially financed by Rep. Smiddy

* @bobfioretti16 has a pair of new TV commercials running that feature Jesse Jackson

* Shimkus campaign spent $2500 at D.C. strip bar in 2005, watchdog group finds

* Rush’s campaign receives financial support from some of Emanuel’s closest political backers: A little more than a month after the news conference with Emanuel, Rush’s campaign cashed 24 checks, all on the same day — each the maximum allowed contribution of $2,700 and totaling $64,800. They came from Sacks, members of Sacks’ family, Sacks’ co-workers, friends and associates.

* Follow the money: Former 4th Ward Ald. Will Burns gave $25,000 to state Rep. Christian Mitchell, who has a rematch against Jay Travis in a Democratic primary for a Chicago House seat. That amount will buy a lot of promoted attack tweets against his challenger.

  18 Comments      


My eyes!!! They burn!!!

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Via our good friends at AlderTrack

  32 Comments      


Caption contest!

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Heh, on so many levels…


  28 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Seeing what they want to see

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* CBS 2

Just west of Midway Airport, in the bungalow belt dominated by Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, some Democrats are defecting to The Donald.

“Right here, I’m a Donald Trump voter,” says retired city plumber Tom Izzo.

“So many Americans are out of job, but we got all these illegals working here. Something’s got to happen,” he says.

Izzo represents a bit of a trend. In 2008, just 6 percent of Chicago primary voters selected Republican ballots. This year, it’s up to 10 percent. And that’s not far away from the 13 percent back in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan attracted so-called blue collar Reagan Democrats.

An example: Gene Krupa, who usually votes Democrat.

“We need change, and Obama didn’t give us the change we needed,” he says.

OK, the station used citywide numbers, but it didn’t look at results in Madigan’s 22nd House District.

So, let’s take a look for ourselves, shall we?

* By far, the district’s two largest wards are 13 and 23. So, since I’m a one-person shop, let’s just look at those two wards.

In 2008, 5 percent of 13th Ward voters cast Republican ballots and 8 percent of 23rd Ward voters did the same. (Dem results here.)

In 2012, 8 percent of 13th Ward voters took GOP ballots and 17 percent of 23rd Ward voters did the same. (Dem results here.)

So far this year, 5.45 percent of 13th Ward voters have requested GOP ballots during early voting, and 14.48 percent of 23rd Ward voters have done the same. Click here for the official election board spreadsheet.

*** UPDATE *** Will Caskey took a look at the ward numbers and wrote this on Facebook

VERY interesting Chicago early vote data courtesy of Rich Miller.

From the looks of it there are, so far, 8 wards with over twice the GOP vote share as citywide. This compares to 10 wards in 2012.

Additionally, the citywide R vote share in 2012 was 15 percent, as opposed to the current 8.73 percent.

In other words, There does NOT appear to be a surge in blue collar whites pulling Republican ballots instead of Democratic ones in Chicago. This is especially interesting as Trump tends to do the best with people who made up their minds earlier, then falls on Election Day.

So far these numbers would seem to favor Anita Alvarez in the Cook SA primary; even the heavily Republican 42nd Ward is producing a GOP vote share under 25 percent (it’s usually more like 40+%).

Basically the more white voters pull Democratic ballots, the better Alvarez should do.

So, the citywide trend appears to be (for now) exactly the opposite of what that CBS 2 report claims.

  23 Comments      


Watching for a surge

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I had a chat with Sangamon County Clerk Don Gray yesterday about early voting. I was wondering if he’d seen any hard evidence of Democrats taking Republican ballots. As we’ve discussed before, Sen. Sam McCann’s supporters are hoping to convince Democrats to help pull him through a tough GOP primary battle against a Rauner-backed (and now openly Rauner-funded) candidate.

Clerk Gray said he has seen some evidence. For instance, his office has looked at early voting in the downtown office by Democrats in 2014 and found that of 434 Democrats who took their party’s ballot that year, 39 have pulled GOP ballots so far this year.

That ain’t many actual votes, of course, but it’s still 9 percent.

Could those just be Trump voters and not necessarily Sam McCann voters? Nobody really knows.

* But something else is going on. As of yesterday afternoon, 1,888 Republican ballots had been pulled, compared to 1,849 two years ago and 1,511 in the last presidential primary four years ago.

And, so far, 1,244 Democratic early ballots have been requested, compared to 967 two years ago and 735 four years ago.

* OK, now let’s look at percent of total Dem/GOP early voting ballots cast for 2012-16…

2012 - Republican percent of total early votes cast: 67
2012 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast: 33

2014 - Republican percent of total early votes cast: 66
2014 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast: 34

2016 - Republican percent of total early votes cast, to date: 60
2016 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast, to date: 40

The Democrats’ percent of total has clearly spiked. On its face, that could very well argue against any surge for McCann.

Then again, we really don’t know and early voting isn’t finished yet.

  43 Comments      


Great Lakes Credit Union donates $39,000 to local communities

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Great Lakes Credit Union (GLCU) takes pride in its many philanthropic initiatives to help build up the communities in which its members live. This year GLCU’s Board of Directors has adopted an extra special plan to give back even more. GLCU is proud to announce it is donating $39,000 in support of 13 organizations located within the communities of their branches throughout Lake, McHenry, Cook, DuPage, and Will counties in Illinois.

On January 29, 2016 GLCU presented a $3,000 check to the Open Arms Mission. The Open Arms Mission is a local food pantry whose mission is to provide daily living necessities while encouraging self-sufficiency for individuals and families in need.

Other organizations benefiting from this initiative include: Operation Support Our Troops in Naperville, Gurnee Explorers Unit, Coalition of Healthy Communities in Zion, ASCEND in Waukegan, Fat Cat Rescue, Inc. in North Chicago, Ronald McDonald House in Oak Lawn, McHenry County Community Foundation in Crystal Lake, Helping Paws Animal Shelter in Woodstock, United Way of Will County in Bolingbrook, Good Shepherd Center in Hazel Crest, Village of Willow Springs Veterans and Family Relief Fund, and B.E.S.T in Round Lake Beach.

  Comments Off      


*** UPDATED x1 - “Blatant lie” *** Madigan claims Gonzales workers arrested for allegedly trying to force open a woman’s door

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’ve been hearing that the Madigan folks have been warning voters in the 22nd House District that the Speaker’s Democratic primary opponent has hired thugs to walk precincts and are advising folks to not open their doors. Now comes this…

State Representative Michael Madigan’s spokesperson Steve Brown issued the following statement Friday regarding a police report filed Thursday evening involving workers for the campaign of Jason Gonzales:

“Jason Gonzales has gone to great lengths to tell voters how much he’s changed after it was revealed that he pleaded guilty to numerous crimes of deception and dishonesty. But it would appear that his disrespect for the law is being followed by his own campaign.

“Last night, we learned that two of Gonzales’ campaign workers were arrested by 8th District police officers after they allegedly attempted to use force to open the door of a local woman’s house.

“Throughout this campaign, Michael Madigan has spoken about the differences between him and Jason Gonzales and issues impacting local neighborhoods, including how Madigan will continue to work for middle-class families and stand up against dangerous right-wing agendas. There has also been an effort to inform voters about Gonzales’ deceitful and dishonest past. Voters have a right to know how Jason Gonzales’ history of deceit and dishonesty could negatively impact them and the representation they receive in the State Capitol, and they should know that historical behavior appears to be carried on by his campaign.”

…Adding… From last night on the Garfield Ridge Neighborhood Watch Facebook page

This evening, CPD arrested 2 African American males on 60th and Parkside for attempted burglary. They were passing out flyers for the Gonzalez campaign, and while knocking on doors in Clearing, they tried forcing their way in to a home. The homeowner was inside at the time and called police. The 2 offenders are in custody.

*** UPDATE *** From the Gonzales campaign…

“The notion that any of our campaign workers were arrested is a blatant lie from the Madigan campaign. No Gonzales campaign workers have been arrested or even talked to by the police,” said Ben Gould, Campaign Manager for Jason Gonzales.

I was also told that “none of our canvassers yesterday fit the description of the those who were apprehended.”

The campaign also says that their canvassers weren’t in that neighborhood last night.

  61 Comments      


Unclear on the concept

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A Democratic ward organization’s sample ballot is not an official government ballot, ya amateur goofballs.

* Sorry Madigoons (and I use that term with great affection), but I kinda doubt that chatting with a voter outside a polling place is the worst thing happening in that district right now…


* Student leaders used to proclaim: “Don’t mourn. Organize!” Now they openly worry about people being “triggered” by a candidate

The email from the UIC student government relayed safety contacts for students who felt threatened or think they need a police escort around campus. At the same time, it urged students to behave respectfully.

“Our hope is that all students will demonstrate peacefully, display class, and remain safe during this highly contentious event,” the email read. “Furthermore, if students are offended or triggered by statements made by Donald Trump or his campaign, we would recommend you to use any of our vast support networks. If you are put into a dangerous or life-threatening situation we have listed numbers you may call in order to best assist you.”

If you’re offended by a politician, don’t faint. Walk a precinct! Get yourself to a candidate call center (well, maybe not this one)! Pick up a picket sign!

You’ll feel so much better. I promise!

  48 Comments      


Today’s number: $1 million

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a St. Louis American article last summer about Bob Romanik, “The Grim Reaper of Radio”

Whether he’s talking about “plantation negro” leadership in East St. Louis or the so-called white elite “bottom feeders,” as he likes to refer to St. Clair County bigwigs, Romanik takes no prisoners.

He’s an ex-East St. Louis and Washington Park cop who often refers to himself as “poor white trash” from the Roosevelt Homes housing projects of ESL and makes no apologies for refusing to snitch on his friends – which, in part, led to his serving a 20-month sentence in the U.S penitentiary in Leavenworth, Kansas.

Since that time, the former strip club mogul’s new toy is his radio empire. He owns a number of stations that focus on everything from golden oldies to country, sports and talk.

But nothing seems to make his day more than lampooning and humiliating local politicians, with nicknames like state Sen. James “Foghorn” Clayborne, “God” Sprague and Judge John “Red on the noodle like a [expletive deleted] on a poodle” Baricevic.

Lately, though, Romanik has gained the attention of local media with his billboards in the Belleville community, which comically lambast St. Clair County Board Chairman Mark Kern.

His current billboard pictures Kern in a bikini with the caption “Mark ‘Sweetcakes’ Kern should have been a stripper. He’s already stripped us of our tax dollars!”

* We’ve already discussed Romanik. He’s running as a Republican in the East St. Louis-based 114th House District race against Democrat LaToya Greenwood.

Back in January, Romanik stunned some political observers by putting $125,000 of his own money into his campaign account.

Yesterday, Romanik upped the ante by loaning a million dollars to his campaign committee.

* When the Democrats redrew the district maps, the ESL-area district wound up being just 42 percent African-American.

And former Gov. Pat Quinn just barely won the 114th in 2014, 48.3 to 47.6 for Bruce Rauner.

* In other words, you can’t totally count this guy out. Not with that kind of money and reach.

  34 Comments      


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* Sunday roundup: Rep. Williams says no takeover; 'Guardrail' bill floated; More alderpersons sign letter; Biz weighs in; CTU president claims city pays the bills for 'every municipality in this state'
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* Mayor to announce school board appointments on Monday
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Question of the day (Updated)
* Ahead of mass school board resignation, some mayoral opponents ask Pritzker to step in, but he says he has no legal authority (Updated x5)
* Governor’s office says Senate Republicans are “spreading falsehoods” with their calls for DCFS audit (Updated)
* Meanwhile… In Opposite Land
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