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Third party, independent candidates granted easier ballot access

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois State Board of Elections

Independent and new party candidates seeking placement on the Nov. 3 ballot will be required to submit only 10 percent of the normal number of nominating signatures and will file petitions six weeks later than originally scheduled under a court order issued Thursday by Chief U.S. District Judge Rebecca R. Pallmeyer.

The order was in response to a lawsuit by the Libertarian Party of Illinois, the Illinois Green Party and several independent candidates alleging that concerns over COVID-19, including a statewide order limiting social contact, impaired their ability to gather sufficient signatures and meet the June 22 filing deadline for new party and independent candidates. Under the order, new party and independent candidates will file nominating petitions with the State Board of Elections from July 31-Aug. 7.

In addition to reducing the number of signatures required by candidates, the order allows the Libertarian and Green parties to place candidates on the November ballot without filing nominating petitions for any offices in which those parties fielded candidates in either the 2016 or 2018 general elections. This means both parties can place candidates for president and U.S. Senate on the November ballot. The Green Party also can name candidates to the ballot in the 5th and 12th congressional races.

Other independent and new party candidates will be required to submit 10 percent of the statutory signature requirements for offices on the November ballot. This reduces the original 25,000 signature requirement for presidential, U.S. Senate, Illinois Supreme Court and Illinois Appellate Court candidates to 2,500 signatures. Signature requirements for other offices on the November ballot vary by office, and the original requirements are listed in the 2020 Candidates Guide, which is attached to this release.

The order also drops the requirement that signatures on nominating petitions be original, physical signatures. A physical “wet” signature would still be permitted but not required on the candidate’s petition. Petition signers may physically sign a copy of a candidate’s petition, or they may electronically sign their handwritten signatures to the petition using a finger or a device such as a computer mouse or stylus. Photocopies of signatures also will be permitted.

The order is here. I’m kinda wondering if the folks behind Sam McCann’s Conservative Party might try to take advantage of this. I asked earlier today, but haven’t yet heard back.

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House cancels next week’s session

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Jessica Basham…

Good afternoon, members and staff –

First, please note that the session days scheduled for next week (Tuesday, April 28 through Thursday, April 30) are cancelled. The deadline for House Bills out of Committees, which had previously been rescheduled for April 30, will be extended to Thursday, May 7. The 3rd Reading deadline for House Bills, which had previously been rescheduled for May 8, will be extended to Friday, May 15.

Attached you’ll find a summary of yesterday’s call hosted by the White House, as well as some recent guidance from FEMA concerning the use of PPE in non-healthcare settings. I think essential businesses that are not healthcare-related will find this instructive.

Summer of White House call is here. FEMA guidance is here.

Any guesses when they’ll come back?

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Judge grants temporary restraining order blocking new workers’ comp rule

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Background is here. Press release…

Sangamon County Circuit Court Judge John M. Madonia has issued a TRO this afternoon following a lawsuit filed by the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association and the Illinois Retail Merchants Association earlier this week related to emergency amendments filed by the Illinois Workers’ Compensation Commission seeking to change substantive provisions under the Workers’ Compensation Act. While the lead plaintiffs on this case are the IMA and IRMA, more than two dozen business groups from every segment of the economy are supporting this effort.

…Adding… I’m told the state has to respond by April 30 and both parties will reconvene on May 4 for potential arguments.

*** UPDATE *** Click here for the TRO.

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*** UPDATED x2 *** Leader Durkin says he is “pleased with today’s actions” while one of his members files lawsuit to block order

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* House Republican Leader Jim Durkin…

The new Stay At Home order that includes many recommendations from the House Republican caucus is the first step in moving Illinois forward. Working together and implementing smart policy decisions will increase the safety of Illinois residents and allow our economy to begin opening up in an equitable fashion while still protecting employees and customers. I want Illinoisans to know that the Executive Order is not final, but it is a working document subject to change. While I am pleased with today’s actions, we must do more to restore economic vitality of the state while maintaining the health and safety of our citizens.

* Rep. Darren Bailey…

– State Rep. Darren Bailey filed a lawsuit today (April 23) against Governor J.B. Pritzker for a violation of civil rights.

“My lawsuit asks the court to find that Gov. Pritzker overextended his power by issuing additional ‘stay at home’ orders after his original disaster proclamation, which expired on April 9th, 2020,” said Bailey
(R-Xenia). “Enough is enough. I filed this lawsuit on behalf of myself and my constituents who are ready to go back to work and resume a normal life.”

While special emergency powers were granted to the governor through the Emergency Management Act in the late 1980’s by the Illinois General assembly, the unprecedented power and authority he wields under the current crisis calls for an immediate review and reconsideration of legislative intent.

Complaint. Legal brief.

*** UPDATE 1 *** Senate GOP Leader Bill Brady…

I am pleased this stay-at-home extension contains recommendations submitted by Senate Republicans that will ease some of the onerous restrictions on small businesses, essential health care procedures, and state parks. This will allow residents the opportunity to avail themselves of these activities and services while maintaining the proper social-distancing protocols.

However, one area not included in this extension was a regional, phased-in reopening of our state. Downstate communities, while following the proper social distancing guidelines, are not seeing the same number of cases, but they’re suffering just the same economically.

Thirty days is a long time, and the Governor has said the peak could be reached by the end of this month or early May. He must continue to monitor the data with the hope that we can ease restrictions before May 30 if it is safe to do so. We have to realize COVID-19 is our new normal, and it is time to address how all businesses, essential or otherwise, operate safely.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Jordan Abudayyeh…

At every step of the response to this deadly pandemic, the Governor has followed the guidance of public health experts and used the emergency powers authorized in State law to protect the health and lives of all Illinoisans.

As the experts outlined today, we are now seeing that the stay at home orders and other emergency steps have started to slow the spread of the coronavirus and are making a significant difference.

Now is not the time to stop our work, because we must remember lives are at stake. It is truly unfortunate that a legislator is working against our public health efforts.

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Pritzker takes reporter questions: Hospital procedures addressed - Union contract negotiations will stay in effect - Ezike unaware of China restaurant study - Rebuffs Durkin on modeling - Says Republican claim he’s living in a bubble is “ridiculous” - “States are not allowed to declare bankruptcy, and it’s a good thing” - Explains why he can’t open Downstate - Ezike talks about alternatives to ventilators - Answers questions about testing - “We’re not encouraging police officers to stop people and arrest them” for not wearing masks - Asked again about rent/mortage payments - Ezike: “Fecal shedding” a danger in pools - Pritzker says state doesn’t own the models and can’t release them - “We’re not going to be sending police out to look at every boat and count people” - Corrects reporter who isunclear on essential businesses - Ezike repeats rise in cases is due to increased testing - Reporter asks why Pritzker doesn’t “quarantine Chicago and the suburbs” - New budget projections factored in “reasonably long” recession - Explains what he’s asked feds for - Said he would “absolutely” be willing to meet with Trump

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* On to questions for the governor. Remember to pardon all transcription errors. Are you saying that doctors and patients can now start making appointments to do procedures beginning May 1st for such things as MRIs, mammograms, colonoscopies and other potentially life saving measures?…

Dr. Ezike: So yes, we’ve been working very hard to try to come up with very safe ways that we can help these postponed procedures and surgeries, which, after postponing them for too long could actually become more of a harm to the patients, instead of a benefit.

And so we will roll out details in the coming days, but we are trying to make a healthcare, more accessible, these specific surgeries and procedures, and we will be working with our partners, the Illinois Health and Hospital Association to try to find the best media in terms of keeping beds available for COVID patients in case there is the surge, in case there’s any change in what happens with that, and make sure that we won’t undo any of the benefits that we’ve done so far.

* Greg Bishop at the Center Square apparently thinks the governor can unilaterally break the AFSCME contract, or just wanted to ding Pritzker: The state is scheduled to give union workers $261 million in raises. How do you justify those raises to people who are out of work and struggling to file unemployment benefits and pay their daily bills?…

Yeah. So, as you know, these are contracts negotiated after four years of no contracts for those workers, and no raises at all. And so that’s why those contracts are in place now. I was able to negotiate something with them. We certainly keep in close contact, we’re watching the budget very closely. But suffice to say that that’s the reason that those exist. If you look at the four years of no raises and the negotiated raises that were in those contracts, they’re very reasonable for the taxpayers and I think, again, we’re looking at all the constraints of the budget going forward and we’ll continue to make changes to the budget because that’s something tha the February budget that was proposed is no longer a budget that we can ever [garbled] so there are 261 million could be readjusted.

* Are you aware of the results of a study that was put out today that found the COVID-19 has spread through air conditioning systems at a restaurant in China?…

Dr. Ezike: I am not aware of that but I will make sure that my team researches that so that we can be aware of all the current information that’s coming out so thank you for sharing that.

I’m kinda stunned that she didn’t know about that.

* What are your thoughts about the recommendations concerning the letter that Minority Leader Jim Durkin put out today, expressing his desire for you to share the modeling numbers in detail with legislative leaders as well as the public?…

Well I think one of the purposes of today you know, he and one of his colleagues in the House have wanted to see the models, and as I’ve said to them many times, there are multiple models and the modeling doesn’t determine my answers to, you know how we’re going to move forward, but it is instructive for sure. So this is an assistance I think everybody to understand what we’re looking at. But this isn’t even the only thing that I’m looking at so the idea that somehow sharing one model with people is going to somehow instruct them about what next moves we’re going to make, I think is a fallacy.

* You’ve been accused by some including some Illinois Republican lawmakers of operating in a bubble, would you commit to holding a virtual town hall to hear directly from Illinois residents about the economic problems that they are facing?…

Well the accusation that I’m operating in a bubble is ridiculous.

First of all, I think everybody on my staff and the Republican members of the House and Senate and the leaders themselves know that I make frequent calls every day to them, to many of their constituents, to mayors, [and] Brad Cole knows there are quite a number of mayors all across the state that I’ve reached out to. I’ve tried to make myself accessible in every way that I can we’re also in a stay at home order. I’m trying hard to reach out as we all are using zoom and other methods of communication with people, and I’ll continue to do that for as long as we’re in this situation.

* WIND’s Amy Jacobson says that, preface that by saying this, Mitch McConnell has said he won’t provide federal bailout funds for state pension funds but he would support a provision to allow states to file for bankruptcy. You have said you don’t want such a such a provision and wouldn’t use it. If a reorganization was good enough for Puerto Rico, with less debt per capita than Illinois, why isn’t it good enough for Illinois? And if it’s not good enough for Illinois, what options would you necessarily consider absent a federal bailout?…

So, I would like to say that Amy clearly doesn’t understand what happens when an organization goes through a bankruptcy and out the other side.

The cost of borrowing, the cost of doing business goes way up much beyond where we are now. We would be paying interest at usurious rates. Our state would be in a world of hurt, people wouldn’t want to do business in fact with a state that’s gone through bankruptcy with the idea that, well if you’ve gone through it once you might go through it again.

And the fact is states are not allowed to declare bankruptcy, and it’s a good thing.

What we do need to do is make sure that we do as I was doing before we got to this crisis, which is to balance our budget on a regular basis to begin to build surpluses so that we can pay down existing bills, that were there before I came into office to make sure that we’re continuing the services that people need in the state, while also being fiscally responsible.

* Cisco Cotto says there are several downstate counties that are being devastated economically, even though they have very few infections. Why not allow those areas to reopen across the board?…

Well, as you can see from some of the changes that we made in the executive order, I listened to many people downstate and in areas where there were let the lower infection rates, lower hospitalizations, so that we could make it more accessible for them to do certain kinds of things that we thought will not spread the infection, but will allow areas that have a different set of characteristics than let’s say an area of downtown Chicago. To be able to operate in a different fashion so that’s that’s built in I talked about some of those things in my remarks.

* A study finds that 88% of COVID-19 patients who are on ventilators in New York, passed away. Do you know what the percentage is here in Illinois?…

Dr. Ezike: I have been following more national and international data, I don’t have Illinois specific data. But across the board we have seen rates of 50 to 80% mortality on events, and we have learned I know from talking to ICU and pulmonary specialists that people are trying different more innovative ways to try to increase the oxygenation in patients who are suffering respiratory distress and that involves putting people on their stomach and rotating them in the different positions to try to get oxygen to different parts of the lungs. So we are seeing that here.

* How much testing do we need in Illinois in order to go about normal life before a vaccine is widely available? What’s the figure in terms of tests per capita? Have we hit a ceiling in our ability to test in the nation or in Illinois because of a lack of testing materials available? What about the spread of the disease in Illinois, do we not know yet?…

>Let me start by answering the question about how many tests, do we need per capita, what’s the right number. It’s very difficult to say and the reason that you know when you talk to the experts around the country, about this, they will give you different answers.

And it is certainly different in different industries, obviously, what you’d like to do in certain industries like the nursing home industry is you would like to be able to test every person, every day on a rapid test basis. So add all of that up and that’s some number of tests that you start with, and that’s just nursing homes. We want to do that in each setting in where you’ve got somebody who has a comorbidity that might put them at risk. So that’s why nobody’s really come up with quite the exact number.

What I can tell you is, as you know, I set an initial goal here for Illinois, because remember when I set the goal we were only in the few thousands range of testing. I set an initial goal of let’s get to 10,000 that seemed like a pretty big number. And it still is, we aren’t there yet, but we’re getting closer. And then the question I’m certainly thinking about this too. What’s the next goal. We’re not going to be able to immediately go from 10,000 to 250,000.

So what’s the next goal what’s possible? And how would we use the tests if we could come up with a number that’s possible in the near future over the next let’s say the two months? Hence, how would you use those tests right if you came up with that number?

So that’s how we’re operating now because the truth is, even if you set a goal of hundreds of thousands of tests a day, the testing materials don’t exist today because the market is so strained. And so it’s difficult to try to shoot for the moon. But I do think setting real goals that are a little bit slightly out of range that you can shoot for and work really hard to make that those are the kinds of goals I like to set.

* Why is Cook County seeing a different range of deaths and cases than other cities with similar demographics? What factors are you seeing to suggest why the county is not recovering as quickly as other similar counties?…

Dr. Ezike: This virus is preying on people who are older, is preying on people with underlying conditions. So there’s definitely a bias towards communities, or areas where there are older people or more infirmed people.

It’s one of the reasons that we have seen that health disparities across our ethnic groups with the black community bearing a higher burden of this, of this disease in terms of the mortality. Again, the disparities of health in terms of the health of communities existed before COVID was here. Again we’ve talked about many of the reasons for that socio-economic racism. Many, you know, loss of opportunities but if you had that to start with and then you place COVID on top of that, then you will have a more serious burden of the disease on those on those communities.

* How will the face covering requirement be enforced, and with the stay at home order now in place for over a month outside of congregate settings have you identified where community transmission is continuing to happen?…

Face coverings, you know, the same way that everything else has been enforced. It’s certainly done at the local level. We’re not encouraging police officers to stop people and arrest them, take drastic action. We are encouraging certainly everybody to encourage everybody else that they know but including the police or other officials to it, you know, people should wear a mask and they should be reminded if they’re not wearing a mask that they’re not. And private establishments do need to require that people who enter their establishment wear a mask. […]

Dr. Ezike: We have community transition in in all parts of our state. I think in terms of documented cases. We’re at 96 counties of the 102 and so we know that the majority of people who are ELS cannot tell you exactly where it came from. So there’s widespread community transmission.

Pritzker: You could say that the rates are higher in some areas and others but that’s not to say that we don’t have it throughout the state. And let me just remind you that that you need to do more testing everywhere in the country to do central surveillance which is

* What will the state do to help people unable to pay their rent or mortgages, money won’t be able to pay at the end of forbearance periods, since they’ve gone without income?…

We’ve been encouraging the forbearance as much as possible. We’ve obviously stopped sheriffs from evicting people we’ve talked to mortgage companies to get them to provide forbearance. Look, we’re all hopeful that we’re able to begin to put our economy back together. We hope that the forbearance period that people will be able to take advantage of will be a short enough period, but fully covered so that when people are able to go back to work, they’ll be able to to afford to pay their bills

* You’re allowing outdoor recreation, why not indoor pools which are chlorinated or gyms under correct spacing and capacity limits? Isn’t that a health necessity for some people?…

Dr. Ezike: IDPH does regulate pools and if we want to get into the, the different microbes that exists within pools, different swimming pools, we can do that. But definitely the practice of obviously being in a swimming pool, unfortunately we do know this here’s some fecal shedding coronavirus … And so, as well as associated with pools, you would have locker rooms with which people would need to change. So you would have more people congregated in the same setting. So for a myriad of reasons. That wouldn’t be conducive to promoting social distancing and decreasing community spread.

* Will you release the raw data for these models, when and where can we access it?…

I just want to be clear with everybody, we don’t own these models, these models belong to the experts who you’ve heard from and the others who’ve been part of our consultative group. And so I would suggest, I will just remind everybody that they have spoken with the press before, they’ve been quoted about what the work that they do and. And I think that that will continue and so again it’s up to them though these are models that are owned and controlled by the people who created them.

* How do we police boating on Lake Michigan?…

I can’t you know they’re just the same way. Look, we’re encouraging everybody to do the right thing. I think the other, we’re not going to be sending police out to look at every boat and count people that are on the boat. But I think people know what the right thing to do is, they’re being told what the right thing to do is and if it needs ultimately to be enforced, then we may need to go that direction by using law enforcement, but that is not currently what we’re looking for.

* Many retailers already fill online orders and do curbside business. How will this benefit them beyond what they’re already doing and sacrificing?

Well, if they’re not an essential business they will not have been doing this or should not have been doing this, but it is now allowed for retail businesses.

* We’ve had a record number of new cases yesterday, is this simply a result of more testing or is the virus continuing to spread if it’s still spreading do we know where and why?…

Dr. Ezike: I will say that the increased number of cases have to be taken in context with what the denominator is and so as you’ve heard Governor Pritzker say we’re the last two days we’ve tested over 9000 people for the first time in this state and so when you look at the the numerator, the number of positive cases over the denominator, all the people that were tested, we actually are still running about the same percentage of positivity but obviously if you test more people, you will get more positives, again, that is understood. But I think we’re still in the 20-21% positive rate. So it’s still consistent it’s just a matter of more people tested.

She explained that yesterday, by the way.

* Jake Griffin at The Daily Herald: Many people in rural parts of the state wants to quarantine Chicago and the suburbs and reopen parts of downstate Illinois that aren’t seeing infection rates like the urban areas. Why has the state not done that? [I swear I did not make that up.]…

I, I’m not sure how to answer that except that this virus knows no boundaries, folks. No one is immune from this virus no matter where you live. And we are trying to take into account the differences between population density in one area of the state versus another and you’re seeing that in the executive order, the modifications to the executive order that we put out today.

* Was the extension of the stay at home order to May 30 taken into account when you gave your updated budget and revenue figures for fiscal year 2020 and 2021 last week? If not, given large parts of the economy will still be closed for four more weeks, do you expect revenue coming into the state this and next year to be even lower than the drop you projected last week?…

There are unknowns every single day. And so, no I didn’t know a week or two or three ago what exactly we would be doing in the month of May, nor do I know honestly, what’s going to happen tomorrow as a result of this virus.

But what I can tell you is that we have taken into account the fact that there is a significant effect on the state of Illinois economy and therefore on the collection of tax revenue for the state. And so we have projected that this would be a prolonged recession, not, multi years, but a reasonably long one. And so that is factored into the numbers that we put forward. And we’ll continue to evaluate that as we’re working with the legislature on putting our budget together.

* Can you explain specifically what kind of economic relief you’ve asked for from the federal government?…

Well, you know, I have been involved in asking for relief for hospitalsm for unemployment, for those who are unemployed, making sure that we provide funding for our local governments.

One of the challenges of the last [bill] was that it set a threshold at 500,000 people. So if you were in a city or a town or county that had less than 500,000 people, you weren’t benefiting from at least from that provision of the CARES Act. And so that’s one of the things that I’ve talked about smaller cities and towns and counties should be able to benefit too and of course the states ahave undergone significant pain in their budgets and it’s not just the state of Illinois, every state in the United States. I was on a call with the National Governors Association members, all the governors or at least as many as were on I think there were 40, as well as numerous other direct calls that I’ve made everybody, Republican and Democrat, there 24 states led by Democrats 26 states led by Republicans, every one of the states is having the challenges that we’re having and needs help from the federal realm. So I talked to federal representatives, or have my team talking to federal representatives all the time. And I hope that that each of the provisions that we’ve talked about, small businesses need more relief. There’s no doubt about it. And so, small businesses, hospitals, you know, all of these things have taken into account lobbying for to our federal representatives.

* Would you be willing to meet with [the president] at the White House to help mend fences and get your point across directly?…

Of course. I’ve been on the phone with the White House on frequent occasions. I’ve spoken with the President and the Vice President all during this crisis, even when the President has been critical of me.

I’m somebody who will do anything to work for the people of the state of Illinois, anything to help us get back on our feet, and to get past this crisis and in a way that preserves our working families and helps them.

So, yeah, of course I mean I would do any of those things. The President does not, you know, I have been to the White House and met with the president at the White House on a couple of occasions now, during the course of my governorship and of course I would go back and Governor Pence, sorry, Vice President Pence who was a governor of a neighboring state Indiana, has been very communicative with me and I know that he would also have a meeting with me if I asked for one. So yeah. Absolutely.

-30-

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Pritzker explains modeling - Explains new stay at home order - “This is the part where we have to dig in” - Says his team finalizing next step for “reopening in phases” - “No amount of political pressure would ever make me allow such a scenario for our state” - Making progress on contact tracing - “These are not choices that are made arbitrarily” - Warns he will bring back restrictions if people violate the order - “This is a battle that you never asked to fight” - “I’m asking you to hold on for just a little while longer” - Prof. Goldenfeld: “Modeling an epidemic is not rocket science. It’s harder”

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the governor’s media briefing today. Please pardon all transcription errors

To start, let me explain a bit about the role of modeling in my decision making, since the outbreak of COVID-19. I’ve taken into consideration a variety of models from researchers all across the world. There are often widely different projections from those about the state of Illinois. Some of this disparity is the result of methodological differences, but much of it also is due to data access and quality. The earliest coronavirus models that we had in the United States had to rely upon data from other countries applied to our national landscape, and certainly there was a real benefit in those very early days of getting educated estimates of what the virus’s effect on Illinois would look like regardless of where that early data came from. But the picture that gets painted by modeling gets better when it’s based off of what’s actually happening on the ground in Illinois data that can only be gathered with the passage of time.

We now have what we didn’t have two months ago, an understanding of what COVID-19 cases, deaths hospitalizations ventilator and ICU usage look like every day in Illinois. Even so, two months is not a lot of time in the world of modeling.

That’s important because the very essence of a model is that it gets smarter over time. How well you consistently test past predictions against current reality and then adjust projections accordingly. Or to put it simply, the more facts that you have, like exactly how many people went into the hospital with COVID-19 on a certain date, the better your ability to predict outcomes on any later date.

Notice I say it becomes better, because it never is exact. There is no crystal ball available to us. There are only estimates. Illinois is the proud home to some of the finest researchers and research institutions in the world, and still it is always the case that different modeling teams come to different conclusions.

So I undertook a project to give me the best possible approximations of future COVID-19 illnesses in Illinois, that would then allow me to make decisions about what resources we would need to keep Illinoisans alive, and recovering. And what urgency would be required in decisions about whether to initiate new mitigation strategies or extend existing ones, like the stay at home order. I have known from the start that even the best projections are going to have a great deal of variance. But knowing the boundaries of that variance informs my decision making. So we convened top researchers from the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, the Chicago and Illinois Department of Public Health Northwestern School of Medicine. The University of Chicago. And we also brought in outside consulting groups. They worked as a cohort, under civis analytics, using the most comprehensive data available for the entire state of Illinois. Suffice to say the findings we’re discussing today about the state of Illinois were put together by some of the best scientists doctors researchers from some of those great institutions that I just mentioned.

I want to look first at the projected fatalities. As you can see from the graphs that are next to me, Illinois is now looking at a peak, or plateau of deaths per day. Somewhere between late April and early May.

Why a range instead of an exact date? Well, everyone wants to look at the median line as a guide, that nice clear line that cuts through the big shaded section on all the models circulating online.

But reality is not quite so simple. Look at the actual deaths from the past few weeks on the graph next to me and look at the median projections going forward. Reality swings up and down, sometimes drastically affect that can’t be captured with a simple median line. What we have to consider is the whole shaded area that shaded area shows the range that researchers are 95% confident that things will land. That’s a shaded area you would see in differing shapes on every model.

To be clear, the fact that the variance is large doesn’t make a model less useful, but it does, nevertheless, make it clear that it is only a tool to be used.

I worry that people think the model is some miraculously accurate view into the future that is going to tell us exactly what we need to do and when it’s not. It won’t. I guarantee that the model that we’re sharing today will change in the coming days as projected numbers about those days are replaced with actual numbers.

A model is an imperfect tool that we use to add context to the actual numbers that we can chart every day. Cases, fatalities ,hospitalizations, positive test results, ventilator and ICU usage.

I also want to explain a bit about this change in our estimated peak cases. The concept of flattening the curve, only just entered our common vocabulary in the last few months, and it’s really crucial to understand our approach.

Weeks ago, many models, both those produced by our in state experts and those from around the nation, predicted an early or mid April peak for Illinois. But as the weeks have progressed those models have come to look quite different. That’s not because those models were bad models. Instead it’s because their inputs got better as time went on, real time data came in, and importantly Illinoisans protected each other by staying home.

Human behavior is exceptionally difficult to measure and even harder to predict. So that last part about staying home has made all the difference in our progress. Also, and this is very important, the most sensible and responsible use of a model in a public health crisis, like this one, is to pay close attention to the worst case scenario. In other words, when building hospital beds, purchasing and acquiring PPE and ventilators and making decisions about mitigation efforts, public officials should assume that the worst end of the model range could happen, and take that into account in planning.

…Pushing out that peak is a natural consequence and the best indicator that we are flattening the curve. That’s what you’re aiming to do, slow down the rate of transmission, which leads to a slower rate of increase over a longer period of time. Hence, a later, and lower peak, pushing the peak further down the line might not sound like good news but I promise you, it saves lives.

And make no mistake, Illinois has saved lives by staying home and social distancing we have kept our infection and death rates for the month of March and April, thousands below the rates projected.

Had we not implemented those mitigation strategies, the good people of this state have allowed our healthcare professionals, the ability to treat patients to the best of their ability without having to make dark choices, very real choices that doctors in other countries face about who lives and who dies. That is a historic and heroic act carried out by all of you.

Your efforts to protect your families, protect your communities, protect each other, have also given us another tool. And that’s time, time to build up our hospital capacity in terms of beds ventilators and healthcare workers, time to prepare for the kind of surge, that could occur. Anytime as a result of a virus from which no one is immune and capacity, we built in August of 2019. Back in a world that had never heard of COVID-19, Illinois had an average of about 26,000 total hospital beds available.

As of today, our total bed count in existing hospitals is more than 31,000. Back in August we had about 2000 ventilators, that number is now more than 3200 ventilators, and we’re building our healthcare workforce too. There are now 5000 out of state and former medical professionals who have applied for temporary licenses to join Illinois fight against COVID-19. We’ve built up our hospital capacity significantly.

But if we let up now, we would have nowhere near the kind of hospital capacity that we would need the projections are clear. If we lifted the stay at home order tomorrow, we would see our deaths per day shoot into the thousands. By the end of May, and that would last well into the summer, our hospitals would be full and very sick people would have nowhere to go. People who otherwise might have won their fight against COVID would die because we wouldn’t be able to help them through.

No amount of political pressure would ever make me allow such a scenario for our state, our beloved state of Illinois.

* And now the rationale for the new order…

So, the numbers present us with only one choice. Next week, I intend to sign an extension of our stay at home order with some modifications through Saturday, May 30.

To everyone listening: We are in possibly the most difficult parts of this journey. I know how badly we all want our normal lives back. Believe me, if I could make that happen right now, I would.

But this is the part where we have to dig in. And we have to understand that the sacrifices that we’ve made as a state to avoid a worst case scenario, are working. And we need to keep going a little while longer. to finish the job.

* More info…

On a more optimistic note, my team and I are finalizing the next step principles for safely moving toward reopening in phases. We are making progress building out testing and launching our contact tracing initiative. So that is so important to us that over time we will be able to realize the new normal.

We’ll be sharing more on that in the days and weeks ahead. On another optimistic note, May will look somewhat different than March and April.

He then explained the new order. Click here for more details.

* Looking forward…

I know that even with these changes, this stay at home order leaves many restrictions in place. And in the coming weeks as we get to the point of working our way down to the other side of the peak, as we move forward, there will be more to do to get people back to work and open up even more.

Understand that these are not choices that are made arbitrarily. These changes are what the data says that we can offer the people of Illinois, without risking so much viral transmission, that our hospitals will again become or potentially become overrun.

* Warning…

That said, if we start to see crowds and people violating the order or breaking the rules, I will need to bring back these restrictions. I’m hopeful that we will not need to do that.

* Reasoning with people…

Folks, this is a battle that you never asked to fight, I know that. I also know that our doctors and our nurses and our healthcare professionals, never asked to lead us through a pandemic. Our essential workers never asked to man the frontlines of society, our small businesses never asked to sacrifice their bottom line to an invisible enemy.

I see your pain. And I am so, so very sorry for it. But for every person who wants to go to dinner or hang out with friends in a park or swing open the sole their salon doors, there is a family mourning the death of someone they love. There is a parent, a child, a friend who would give anything to have their greatest strain be the difficulties of staying home, and not the unimaginable pain of a life loss too soon.

I’m not in the business of comparing suffering in a pandemic. Everyone is allowed to hurt, but we have the opportunity to prevent the pain of loss from touching the lives of thousands, we have the opportunity to follow the leadership of the countless nonprofits and community leaders and families across Illinois, who have demonstrated their courage and their empathy and their willingness to help, Illinois has the best people in the world. And I’ve said all along that I will fight like hell for you.

I’m asking you to hold on for just a little while longer. To help make sure that we all see through to the other side of this struggle. One day I pray that this virus will be a memory. But the strength that we found together will be something that we carry with us forever.

* Professor Nigel Goldenfeld of UIUC…

So let me tell you a little bit about modeling, but in my own language. Modeling an epidemic is rather like modeling the trajectory of a rocket. When you don’t know where it started from, in what direction it was pointing and how much fuel is onboard the rocket and you can’t even see the rocket, modeling an epidemic is not rocket science. It’s harder.

* Prof. Sergie Maslov of UIUC…

The success of social distancing is measured by what did not happen. Our calculations show that the number of deaths would have been about 20 times as high as they are today.

  20 Comments      


1,826 new cases, 123 additional deaths

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 1,826 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 123 additional deaths.

    Boone County: 1 male 80s
    Champaign County: 1 male 90s
    Cook County: 1 male 20s, 1 male 30s, 2 females 40s, 1 male 40s, 3 females 50s, 3 males 50s, 3 females 60s, 7 males 60s, 9 females 70s, 13 males 70s, 8 females 80s, 8 males 80s, 10 females 90s, 2 males 90s
    DuPage County: 1 male 60s, 4 females 70s, 3 males 70s, 1 female 80s, 3 males 80s, 2 females 90s
    Fayette County: 1 female 90s
    Jackson County: 1 female 70s
    Kane County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 90s
    Kankakee County: 1 female 80s, 4 males 80s
    Kendall County: 1 male 70s
    Lake County: 1 male 60s, 2 females 70s, 3 males 70s, 2 females 80s, 2 males 80s, 1 male 100+
    McHenry County: 1 female 40s, 1 male 40s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 80s
    Sangamon County: 1male 70s
    Will County: 1 male 50s, 1 male 60s, 2 females 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 male 80s, 2 males 90s
    Winnebago County: 1 female 60s, 1 male 80s

Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 36,934 cases, including 1,688 deaths, in 96 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years.

…Adding… From Dr. Ezike…

Right now statewide medical surgical bed availability remains relatively flat, similar to ICU Bed Availability.

Although use has been increasing slowly, capacity has also been increasing, thereby maintaining relatively stable levels.

As of yesterday, 4877 individuals were reported to be hospitalized with COVID-19, of those 1268 patients were in the ICU and 766 patients were on ventilators.

  2 Comments      


Pritzker issues modified stay at home order

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release [Pritzker said today the order will be formally issued next week and last through the end of May]…

Based on data from scientists and health experts and after consulting with stakeholders across the state, Governor JB Pritzker announced that he will sign a modified version of the state’s stay at home order that will go into effect on May 1 to continue the life-saving progress made over the last month while also allowing residents additional in the safest way possible.

In conjunction with today’s announcement, the Governor released modeling today put together by top academic institutions and researchers in Illinois that predicts the course of coronavirus in the state over the coming months. On our current trajectory, the state is projected to see a peak or plateau of deaths per day between late April and early May, but if the stay at home order were lifted this week, the model anticipates a second wave of the outbreak in Illinois starting in May, which would claim tens of thousands of lives and greatly exceed the state’s hospital capacity.

“Make no mistake, Illinois has saved lives. By staying home and social distancing, we have kept our infection and death rates for the months of March and April thousands below the rates projected had we not implemented these mitigation strategies,” said Governor JB Pritzker. “I know how badly we all want our normal lives back. But this is the part where we have to dig in and understand that the sacrifices we’ve made as a state to avoid a worst-case scenario are working — and we need to keep going a little while longer to finish the job.”

MODIFIED STAY AT HOME ORDER

Lifting mitigation measures is only possible with widespread availability and access to COVID-19 testing, tracing and treatment. The data show that if the state were to lift mitigations abruptly this week, this would result in a second wave of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

After consulting with doctors, scientists and experts in Illinois and across the world, the Governor has announced he will sign a modified version of the state’s stay at home order that will go into effect on May 1 and extend through the end of the month. The modified order will strengthen the state’s social distancing requirements while allowing residents additional flexibility and provide measured relief to non-essential businesses in the safest way possible.

The new executive order will include the following modifications effective May 1:

    OUTDOOR RECREATION: State parks will begin a phased re-opening under guidance from the Department of Natural Resources. Fishing and boating in groups of no more than two people will be permitted. A list of parks that will be open on May 1 and additional guidelines can be found on the Illinois Department of Natural Resources website HERE . Golf will be permitted under strict safety guidelines provided by the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO) and when ensuring that social distancing is followed.

    NEW ESSENTIAL BUSINESSES: Greenhouses, garden centers and nurseries may re-open as essential businesses. These stores must follow social distancing requirements and must require that employees and customers wear a face covering. Animal grooming services may also re-open.

    NON-ESSENTIAL RETAIL: Retail stores not designated as non-essential businesses and operations may re-open to fulfill telephone and online orders through pick-up outside the store and delivery.

    FACE COVERINGS: Beginning on May 1, individuals will be required to wear a face-covering or a mask when in a public place where they can’t maintain a six-foot social distance. Face-coverings will be required in public indoor spaces, such as stores. This new requirement applies to all individuals over the age of two who are able to medically tolerate a face-covering or a mask.

    ESSENTIAL BUSINESSES AND MANUFACTURING: Essential businesses and manufacturers will be required to provide face-coverings to all employees who are not able to maintain six-feet of social distancing, as well as follow new requirements that maximize social distancing and prioritize the well-being of employees and customers. This will include occupancy limits for essential businesses and precautions such as staggering shifts and operating only essential lines for manufacturers.

    SCHOOLS: Educational institutions may allow and establish procedures for pick-up of necessary supplies or student belongings. Dormitory move-outs must follow public health guidelines, including social distancing.

The Illinois Department of Public Health will also be issuing guidance to surgi-centers and hospitals to allow for certain elective surgeries for non-life-threatening conditions, starting on May 1. Facilities will need to meet specific criteria, including proper PPE, ensuring enough overall space for COVID-19 patients remains available, and testing of elective surgery patients to ensure COVID-19 negative status.

  67 Comments      


New study of studies published by Rand Corp. on gun policy

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Rand Corp. poured through thousands of gun policy studies published since 1995, weeded them down to 123 which “met high standards for causal evidence”

“For our analysis, we looked for studies that made stronger claims to identifying a causal effect of individual laws,” said Andrew Morral, one of the authors of the report. “They had to show that changes (for instance, in suicide rates) that are attributed to the law occurred only after the law was implemented (not before), and did not occur in states where the law was not implemented.”

* To the research

First, there was a clear consensus (indicated by three or more high-quality studies in agreement) that stand-your-ground laws, which allow people to use guns to defend themselves in public even if retreating is an option, result in higher overall rates of gun homicide. The higher rates aren’t simply from “bad guys” getting shot; the research shows the additional deaths created by stand-your-ground laws far surpass the documented cases of defensive gun use in the United States.

There was also a broad consensus that child access prevention laws, which set requirements for how guns must be stored at home, are effective in reducing self-inflicted gun injuries among children and adults.

* Then there were those which produced more moderate evidence, with at least two strong studies in agreement

For instance, there is moderate evidence that banning gun purchases by people under domestic violence restraining orders decreases intimate-partner homicides. The research also showed moderate evidence that background checks reduce gun homicides, and that waiting periods for firearms purchases reduce gun suicides and overall homicide.

* And then there were those which produced “limited evidence,” meaning one strong study and none opposed

There’s some evidence, for instance, that licensing requirements reduce suicides, that bans on gun ownership among the mentally ill reduce violent crime, that “right-to-carry” laws increase violent crime, that minimum purchasing age requirements reduce youth suicides, and that assault weapon bans end up boosting sales of those weapons in the period before the ban takes place.

The study found “no scholarly consensus” on “red flag” laws and mandatory gun-safety training. And there is no high quality research of gun-free zones and armed school employees.

That’s not to say some laws don’t work. It’s just that nobody has yet shown with some scientific certainty that they do.

Lots more info here.

  8 Comments      


Illinois Kidney Care Alliance Working To Protect Patients And Health Care Workers During COVID-19 Pandemic

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

The Illinois Kidney Care Alliance (IKCA) and its dialysis provider member companies are working diligently across Illinois to support dialysis patients and their caregivers in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. Given their underlying comorbidities, people with kidney failure are at a greater risk of complications if they contract COVID-19. To offset this concern, Illinois’ dialysis providers have instituted advanced infection control protocols in their clinics to help give care teams and patients protection against possible infection.

Dialysis patients should:

Dialysis patients should continue to take any medicine prescribed by their physicians and should NOT miss their treatments.

For more information on the impact of COVID-19 on kidney patients, visit the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control and the National Kidney Foundation, and follow IKCA on Facebook and Twitter.

  Comments Off      


Musical interlude

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Stones dropped a new single today

Background is here.

  6 Comments      


COVID-19 roundup

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Not good at all

A rash of coronavirus outbreaks at dozens of meat packing plants across the nation is far more extensive than previously thought, according to an exclusive review of cases by USA TODAY and the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting.

And it could get worse. More than 150 of America’s largest meat processing plants operate in counties where the rate of coronavirus infection is already among the nation’s highest, based on the media outlets’ analysis of slaughterhouse locations and county-level COVID-19 infection rates.

These facilities represent more than 1 in 3 of the nation’s biggest beef, pork and poultry processing plants. Rates of infection around these plants are higher than those of 75% of other U.S. counties, the analysis found.

And while experts say the industry has thus far maintained sufficient production despite infections in at least 2,200 workers at 48 plants, there are fears that the number of cases could continue to rise and that meat packing plants will become the next disaster zones.

* The News-Gazette has a regular feature where Champaign-Urbana Public Health Administrator Julie Pryde answers questions from readers. It’s a great service and here’s the latest

Q: I was hoping you could follow up on the question from Thursday about cloth mask protection. If a cloth mask can’t protect the wearer from getting infected, how can the mask stop you from spreading the virus? I find this confusing. Wouldn’t it be as porous in either direction?

A: The cloth masks are intended to prevent droplets from spreading when someone is talking, coughing, sneezing, etc. They also help prevent individuals from touching their nose and mouth. The masks should be made of at least two layers of cloth. The masks will absorb droplets. Remember that the masks are not to replace social distancing, cough/sneeze etiquette or thorough and frequent hand-washing. Ideally, everyone who is in public, especially while shopping or accessing other essential services, would wear these to help protect each other.

* Speaking of masks, this is really cool

A new virus-repelling face mask is one of the things on the fast track to development at Jump Trading Simulation & Education Center through a program launched to address the pandemic.

The Peoria-based center is an innovation hub for clinicians from OSF HealthCare, the University Of Illinois College of Medicine Peoria, and engineers from the University of Illinois in Urbana. The Jump Arches program has earmarked $750,000 for the program, which is developing things to address some of the most pressing issues healthcare workers and the public are facing during the pandemic. […]

“These new materials don’t allow any of the virus particles to adhere to the outside of the mask,” said Vozenilek. “Because as you breathe in and out you are pulling the air in on the outside of the mask and particles have a tendency to gather as you are pulling the air in. So the mask becomes contaminated. So in the future, the materials will be designed so the viral particles can’t adhere to further reduce contagion.”

Other research teams are working on disinfection methods for the masks.

* Sun-Times live blog headlines

70% of residents test positive for COVID-19 at South Shore senior home where 10 have died

Remote learning ‘may be the new normal even in the fall,’ Chicago schools chief says

Second round of small business loans may have similar problems

Elizabeth Warren’s brother dies of COVID-19

Drive-in celebrations? Graduations in December? Virtual ceremonies? Plans for high school seniors unfold — but students not happy

The Lost Chicago Summer of 2020: Tough decisions, but necessary ones

Puzzling over African American COVID deaths — no easy explanation

Watching out for Illinois’ most vulnerable kids becomes all the harder during a pandemic

Why the coronavirus is forcing farmers to dump milk and let crops rot

Chicago’s ‘crush hour’ may take a new turn, but COVID-19 is not CTA or Metra’s death knell

Poland sending COVID-19 medical team to Chicago, White House says

* From the Tribune’s live blog

Furloughs and layoffs for workers at Sinai hospitals

Chicago’s warm-weather businesses prepare for the worst as coronavirus shutdowns are extended

Evanston joins at least 18 Chicago suburbs requiring face coverings in public

City to hold first online town hall on COVID-19 aimed at slowing spread of virus in majority black communities

For decades Chicago’s lunchtime dining room, Manny’s now fights for new business during coronavirus pandemic

* Illinois roundup…

* Meat supply chain begins to feel effects of COVID-19: “When one section of the supply chain has a slowdown or complete shutdown, it bottlenecks the rest of the system,” Illinois Farm Bureau President Richard Guebert, Jr. said. “With highly perishable products like milk or vegetables, the bottleneck is slowing down the process longer than the items have in shelf life.”

* ‘It’s totally safe to come to the hospital’: Edward, Elmhurst managing pandemic

* Illinois rents 10 refrigerated trailers as COVID-19 morgue contingency

* Big crowds on first day of COVID-19 testing facility in Aurora

* 4 suburban ICU nurses who help form the backbone of the coronavirus fight

* Illinois mayors ask feds for COVID relief

* Nearly 70 residents, staff of GreenTree at Mount Vernon have tested positive for COVID-19

* Hidden coronavirus outbreaks spread through cities like Chicago, New York far earlier than Americans knew, researchers say: Vespignani said he and his research team warned officials of the silent spread, posting some of their early projections in mid-February. “We were talking to officials here, and it was the same reaction we got in Italy, in the U.K., in Spain,” Vespignani said. “They told me, ‘OK, that’s happening on your computer, not in reality.’ “Look,” he added, “No one’s going to shut down a country based on a model.”

* Lawmakers slowly preparing for session to reopen: Officials have been careful, though, to stress that the working groups are not legislative committees and that they are not authorized to draft legislation, hear testimony or take votes. “These are far more informal,” Rep. Michael Zalewski, a Riverside Democrat and co-chair of the House economic recovery working group, said this week. “I think they’re simply ways for us to congregate and hear each other out and compare notes and ideas about what we’re going to face in the near future, when we do return to normal regular order.” The difference between “working groups” and legislative committees is important because Article IV, Section 5 of the Illinois Constitution requires all meetings of the General Assembly, as well as legislative committees and commissions to be open to the public, unless two-thirds of the chamber votes to close them.

* Pedestrians complain runners are passing too close on Chicago sidewalks during the pandemic. How risky is that, and should they wear face masks?

* UI cancels fall study-abroad programs

* A few national stories…

* Blood clots in virus patients stump doctors

* Covid-19 causes sudden strokes in young adults, doctors say

* Top vaccine doctor says his concern about Trump’s coronavirus treatment theory led to ouster from federal agency

* Gilead’s coronavirus drug flops in first trial: The Chinese trial showed the antiviral remdesivir did not improve patients’ condition or reduce the pathogen’s presence in the bloodstream

* At Beleaguered U.S. Meat Plants, Inspectors Are Getting Sick Too

* Who’s Behind the ‘Reopen’ Protests?

* McConnell takes flak after suggesting bankruptcy for states rather than bailouts

  4 Comments      


Calm down, please

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he does this because he’s been hinting at it for at least a week, but this story includes a lot of pure speculation

Gov. J.B. Pritzker is expected to extend Illinois’ stay-at-home order Thursday, sources tell NBC 5.

With just one week left until the current April 30 deadline, Pritzker is poised to reveal an extension during his 2:30 p.m. coronavirus press briefing.

Though it’s not clear how long he will extend the order for, state law allows a governor to sign an executive order for 30 days. Sources believe the order could be extended through May 30.

The order is expected to include a new requirement that residents cover their faces in public spaces where social distancing is difficult.

Pritzker could also lift some restrictions on the order. Lawmakers and businesses have asked Pritzker to open state parks and golf courses and allow elective surgeries.

The press conference starts in just a couple of hours. We’ll know then.

* Meanwhile, a single alderman introduces an ordinance and the headline reads “Facial coverings would be required in many public settings in Chicago under City Council plan.” C’mon

Lincoln Park Ald. Michele Smith, 43rd, introduced her ordinance Wednesday and said she’ll push for a quick hearing. “If we really want to get this behind us, everyone has to wear a mask in public,” Smith said. “The real impediment to that happening is social acceptance, so this ordinance would get everyone on the same page by making it a requirement.” […]

Asked Wednesday about whether she is generally considering requiring face coverings, Mayor Lori Lightfoot said it’s being discussed, but implementing such rules would be hard.

“The challenge is making sure every member of the public has the same accessibility to some kind of face covering,” she said. “And we know, from the disparities in our city, that that is not so. What is possible in Lincoln Park is not the same as what’s possible in Austin or Englewood or Roseland. So we have to have a policy that is consistent with the realities of people’s lives. And while we are going to continue to encourage people to wear masks in congregate settings, mandating that without giving people the tools to actually comply — and we’re not going to lock people up because they aren’t wearing masks in public. So, these are nuanced issues.”

…Adding… Email…

Hey Rich,

Point of clarification, in response to ‘Meanwhile, a single alderman introduces an ordinance and the headline reads “Facial coverings would be required in many public settings in Chicago under City Council plan.”’

41 out of the 50 aldermen signed on to cosponsor this ordinance. We were working the phones all weekend.

(of course, it may be a non-issue as of a couple hours ago…)

Thank you for keeping us up to speed on the state stuff - it’s been very helpful. I mean that with zero percent snark.

* For the most up-to-date information on COVID-19 resources, please visit and subscribe at - for mobile updates, text COVID19 to 78015 or email: coronavirus@chicago.gov. *

Erik Wallenius
Chief of Staff
Alderman Michele Smith

* And we don’t even know what will be in the next stay at home order, so this is a silly headline

McHenry drive-in theater owner making plans to reopen May 1. Extension of stay-at-home order would nix that idea.

  65 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Um. No…


I did a quick TV interview last night and while I was preparing I decided that I had to wear a hat. My hair is just… outta control.

* The Question: How are you and yours holding up?

  70 Comments      


The peak “will probably be more of a plateau”

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Caption from the state via the Sun-Times

Illinois Dept. of Public Health death projections due to COVID-19. The gray line indicates range of deaths, which at its peak could hit between 50 and 150 deaths. The black line is reported deaths. The green line is the University of Chicago median line; the orange line is the median line projected by the University of Illinois-Urbana Champaign researchers.

Graph

* From the Sun-Times article

And based on the projections, the peak “should be somewhere starting now through the first week of May,” [Cameron Mock, who oversees the state’s COVID-19 projections] told the Sun-Times.

“I think it’s tough to say, but I think a couple of weeks,” Mock said of the range.

According to a projection obtained by the Sun-Times, the top of the peak could see 150 deaths a day. But during that peak period, the daily range of fatalities could fluctuate anywhere from 50 to 150. […]

Another graph Pritzker plans to show will estimate that the death rate would go up ten times if the stay at home order was lifted Friday – a little less than a week before the scheduled April 30 expiration.

The model shows deaths in the state slowly flattening into August.

* I asked the governor’s office about the article’s focus on death rates because it’s a lagging indicator of about 3-4 weeks and because the governor has said he’s looking at a wide range of things, including hospitalization, case numbers, etc. I told subscribers the response, but I think it’s important to make that public to prevent confusion…

You are correct that deaths are lagging behind infections, but we don’t have enough testing right now to have a good sense of the true infection rate, so you have the option of choosing a lagging but reliable indicator, or a current but unreliable indicator. Like the governor has said, a model is just one tool he looks at.

Also, like the Sun-Times story mentions and like the governor has said, models are constantly changing when you put new data into them. This model has changed, changes, and will change every day as we put new data into it. The state could see the ‘peak’ within a span of time from now through May and then we could continue on that peak, which will probably be more of a plateau for a period before we see the decline.

  24 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - 102,736 new Illinois claims *** Another 4.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WaPo

More than 4.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, according to the Labor Department, a signal that the tidal wave of job losses continues to grow during the coronavirus pandemic.

It’s the fifth-straight week that job losses were measured in the millions. From March 15 to April 18, 26.5 million have probably been laid off or furloughed. The number of jobs lost in that brief span effectively erased all jobs created after the 2008 financial crisis. Jobless figures on this scale haven’t been seen since the Great Depression.

The new weekly total comes on top of 22 million Americans who had sought benefits in previous weeks, a volume that has overwhelmed state systems for processing unemployment claims. Economists estimate that the national unemployment rate sits between 15 and 20 percent, much higher than it was during the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009. The unemployment rate at the peak of the Great Depression was about 25 percent.

The new weekly jobless claims figure came around economist predictions, which were expected “to be staggering, but not growing, which is a small mercy,” said Julia Pollak, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter. For comparison, 5.2 million people filed unemployment claims for the week ending April 11.

*** UPDATE *** Slowing down a bit, but still a ton of applications

While weekly numbers keep decreasing, Illinois residents continue to file for unemployment benefits at record-high numbers due to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

Illinois residents filed 102,736 claims for unemployment benefits last week, according to preliminary numbers from the U.S. Department of Labor. That’s an about 27% decrease from the revised total of 141,160 for the week ending April 11, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security numbers on April 16.

Illinois received more than 757,000 initial unemployment claims from March 1 to April 18, according to state data. That’s more than the total number of initial claims for all of 2019 – which was more than 476,000 – and more than four times the amount of claims filed in the first two months of the 2008 Great Recession, per the state data.

  7 Comments      


Open thread

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Keep in mind that Germany has done a much better job than the US at containing the virus…


Despite the Merkel quote, do try to keep the conversation Illinois-centric and please be nice to each other.

  71 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


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« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Map shows historical decline of county populations, with about a third peaking between 1870 and 1900
* Question of the day
* 23 years after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Illinois remembers the lives lost
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