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Question of the day

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle on Thursday pitched her proposed penny-an-ounce tax on sweetened beverages like pop, lemonade and sports drinks as a way to avoid drastic staffing cuts at the state’s attorney’s office, sheriff’s department and public health system.

“I could put forth a proposal that would significantly impair our criminal justice system over the next three years and undermine the progress we are making in public health,” she told commissioners. “It would mean at least 1,000 fewer positions in our criminal justice system, including prosecutors, public defenders, sheriff’s deputies and critical support staff, programs and services.

“Instead of focusing on becoming more fair and effective, we would be focusing on just getting by,” she added. “This budget, instead, calls not only for dedication to criminal justice reform, but a significant investment on public safety.”

Preckwinkle pointed to a proposal to double the amount spent on anti-violence programs to about $6.4 million, as well as an effort to create what she’s calling a community triage center in the Roseland neighborhood, where early intervention services will be provided to people with substance abuse or mental health issues who are at risk of ending up in the county jail or at the publicly funded Stroger Hospital.

* More

Governments should use tax policy to increase the price of sugary drinks like sodas, sport drinks and even 100 per cent fruit juices as a way to fight obesity, diabetes and tooth decay, the World Health Organisation says.

A 20 per cent price increase could reduce consumption of sweet drinks by the same proportion, the WHO said in Fiscal Policies for Diet and Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases, a report issued on World Obesity Day.

Drinking fewer calorific sweet drinks is the best way to curb excessive weight and prevent chronic diseases such as diabetes, although fat and salt in processed foods are also at fault, WHO officials said.

In the 36-page report, the WHO also cited “strong evidence” that subsidies to reduce prices for fresh fruits and vegetables can help improve diets.

* But…


* The Question: Do you support the concept of a special surtax on sweetened beverages? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


surveys & polls

  86 Comments      


Wheeler urging caution on “lockbox” proposal

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Charlie Wheeler has two good reasons to be wary of the proposed transportation funding “lockbox” amendment that voters will weigh in on this November. The first are the license/title surcharges for IDNR

$2 of each license plate fee and $3.25 of each vehicle title fee goes to the Illinois Department of Natural Resources — almost $30 million a year, according to IDNR estimates. Is each dollar spent on a transportation-related purpose?

No, it’s not. And that’s a very good point since the amendment expressly prohibits using those fees for anything other than transportation. Passing those fees was not easy, so finding another funding source would be difficult without a general tax hike. Also, as Charlie points out, the Illinois Supreme Court is quite literal in its constitutional interpretation these days and likely wouldn’t make an exception here.

* The other reason is historical

Consider a lesson from almost 150 years ago, embedded in the 1870 Constitution. Determined to prevent the kind of extravagant public works schemes that drove the state and many towns and counties to the brink of insolvency in the mid-19th Century, its framers added extremely tight restrictions on state and local government borrowing that remained in place for 100 years.

As a result, the state resorted to creating quasi-public entities, like the Illinois Building Authority, to sell bonds to finance building projects, which then were rented back to the state, thus getting around the constitutional restrictions, but at the cost of higher interest rates.

Local government officials, meanwhile, couldn’t borrow the cash to build needed improvements like sewage treatment systems, public libraries, waterworks, or other 20th Century amenities their constituents wanted, so they cleverly circumvented the charter’s borrowing limits by creating new units of government with the sole purpose of providing a particular service, usually funded by property taxes. And today Illinois has some 2,000 of those special units, more than any other state.

Probably not the results the 1870 reformers had in mind, but a cautionary note for today’s voters.

* Related…

* $2.5M in ads spent for Illinois transportation amendment

  32 Comments      


Rauner: “I have not endorsed, I have not endorsed, not supported”

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Rauner was asked today about the Trump revelations of the past few days. He said he didn’t want to talk about politics, repeated that he was “outraged by the rhetoric,” but did say this…

I will say as well that I condemn in the strongest possible way sexual assault, sexual harassment in any form.

Such courage. He didn’t say if he believed the allegations were true, however.

* When pressed about whether or not he was supporting or voting for Trump, he said this…

I have not endorsed, I have not endorsed, not supported and I’ve, I’ve said that and I, that’s my position.

Actually, he has never come out and said he wasn’t supporting Trump. So, maybe that’s a bit of sunlight, despite the tortured way it was said?

From May

Rauner repeatedly had sought to stay out of the presidential race, though he did say that as leader of the GOP in Illinois, he would back the eventual nominee. But Rauner aides stressed there are various levels of “support,” and that the governor would not be giving Trump a formal endorsement.

* Listen to the raw audio because there are more questions, including his funding of legislative races

  42 Comments      


Tribune’s blue boxes disappearing in Chicago

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Lynne Marek at Crain’s

Blue metal boxes stacked with copies of the Chicago Tribune have nearly disappeared from Chicago’s streetscape.

Not a single Tribune box could be spotted in a sample survey of those placed under the elevated tracks in the Loop. And the only JCDecaux multirack holders that offer the paper are mainly on heavily trafficked Michigan Avenue, according to a website that tracks those outlets. Boxes bearing the Chicago Sun-Times are fading, too, but there are still thousands.

The disappearing boxes are another sign of the distressed newspaper industry’s effort to evolve as advertisers and readers flee print products for digital alternatives. Newspaper publishers nationwide that can’t justify the cost of printing and distribution for slipping coin-operated sales are abandoning the decades-old practice.

“They are pulling the boxes,” said John Murray, vice president of audience development at the News Media Alliance (formerly known as the Newspaper Association of America).

I can’t remember the last time I bought a print newspaper. Can you?

  77 Comments      


Today’s number: 92 percent

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Chuck Goudie and Barbara Markoff

The I-Team has learned 92 percent of the inmates in Cook County Jail have not been convicted of the crime they are charged with, compared with 60 percent nationally. Instead they are here waiting, many times for years, to go on trial.

“And the majority of those people who are pre-trial, at least two-thirds of them have money bonds, so they would be eligible for release if they had sufficient money to pay those bonds. It means we are punishing people because they are poor,” said Sharlyn Grace, Chicago Appleseed Fund for Justice.

Max Suchan of the Chicago Community Bond Fund said bond hearings are too fast and incomplete.

“The average bond court hearing, according to recent study, was 37 seconds,” Suchan said.

  32 Comments      


Madigan declined Clinton campaign offer of more delegates to move primary date

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I told subscribers about this earlier today, but yesterday’s Wikileaks dump (courtesy, apparently of the Russians) of Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta’s e-mails included a demand by the campaign manager to move Illinois’ primary date back to April or May in order to help a “moderate” Republican win the nomination

Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook wrote to Podesta in November 2014 about getting [Bill Daley] involved, suggesting the key contacts to get to Madigan were through Tim Mapes, his chief of staff, and Mike McClain, a Springfield lobbyist.

The tone was urgent because the window was closing on Illinois lawmakers to act if the 2016 primary date were to be changed.

“The overall goal is to move the IL primary out of mid March, where they are currently a lifeline to a moderate Republican candidate after the mostly southern Super Tuesday,” the hacked email says. “IL was a key early win for Romney in 12.

“Our preference would be for them to move all the way to May, but if they at least move to April 12 or April 19 they will have the day to themselves and presumably garner a lot of coverage. They will also be influencing a big northeast primary day on April 26.

“They will receive a bonus of 10% extra delegates if they move to April and 20% if they move to May. Mapes has said repeatedly they don’t care about that.

“As we discussed, they don’t really care about being helpful and feel forgotten and neglected by POTUS. The key point is that this is not an Obama ask, but a Hillary ask. And the Clintons won’t forget what their friends have done for them. It would be helpful to feel out what path, if any, we have to get them to yes. This will probably take some pushing.”

* Yep…


Trying to get McClain involved was a pretty good idea, but when MJM doesn’t want to do something, that’s usually that.

Subscribers know more about why this request was turned down.

  35 Comments      


Vote Yes On The Safe Roads Amendment

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

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Caption contest!

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From last night’s Springfield showing of that Illinois Policy Institute “documentary” on Speaker Madigan…


  74 Comments      


Roskam is back to supporting Trump… for now

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Congressman Peter Roskam was for Donald Trump last week, then flipped to undecided this week and now he’s back to being for the guy

“I think we would get a better result in terms of tax reform, regulatory reform and Obamacare repeal and replacement with Donald Trump,” Roskam said. “That said, he’s got some work to do, in terms of communicating and so forth. But I think we’d be better off with him than with her.”

Roskam also noted his reservations about Hillary Clinton’s integrity.

Both parties are in real turmoil right now,” Roskam said. “I’ve come to the conclusion that Hillary Clinton is unworthy of the office, and that’s a very harsh thing to say.”

That story was posted yesterday afternoon at 5:25 pm.

* At 12:50 am today, the Tribune posted this story, so maybe Roskam will flip back again

Five women accused Donald Trump of groping or kissing them without their consent in news reports published Wednesday, just days after the Republican presidential nominee insisted in a debate that he had never engaged in such behavior.

One of the women alleges that Trump grabbed her breasts and tried to put his hand up her skirt during a flight more than three decades ago, the New York Times reported. Another says he kissed her on the mouth outside an elevator in 2005, according to the same report. A third woman says Trump groped her rear end at his Mar-a-Lago resort 13 years ago, the Palm Beach Post reported. The fourth, then a People magazine reporter, says Trump kissed her without her consent when the two were alone in 2005 right before an interview she was about to conduct with Trump and his wife. The fifth, Miss Washington 2013, said in a Facebook post that Trump groped her and invited her to his hotel room.

Not to mention this, this and this.

  26 Comments      


Nobel Prize for Dylan

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Wow

Singer-songwriter Bob Dylan won the 2016 Nobel Prize in literature on Thursday, a stunning announcement that for the first time bestowed the prestigious award on a musician for “having created new poetic expressions within the great American song tradition.”

Reporters and others who gathered at the Swedish Academy’s headquarters in Stockholm’s Old Town reacted with a loud cheer as his name was read out.

Dylan, 75, is the most iconic poet-musician of his generation. Songs such as “Blowin’ in the Wind” and “The Times They Are A-Changin’” became anthems for the U.S. anti-war and civil rights movements of the 1960s. He is the first American winner of the Nobel literature prize since Toni Morrison in 1993.

  26 Comments      


Democratic poll: Rep. Jimenez in unexpectedly tight race

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bernie

A poll in the 99th House District commissioned by Democratic challenger TONY DelGIORNO has him within five points of Rep. SARA WOJCICKI JIMENEZ, R-Leland Grove.

The automated telephone poll of 617 voters taken Oct. 6-7 by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, North Carolina, has Jimenez with 43 percent to 38 percent for DelGiorno and 19 percent unsure. The margin of error is 3.9 percentage points. The firm works for many Democrats.

Respondents self-identified as 44 percent Republicans, 28 percent Democrats and another 28 percent independent or with another party. Just a quarter have a labor union member in their household.

DelGiorno, of Springfield, said his campaign got results about 7 p.m. Oct. 7 — just hours after news broke of GOP presidential candidate DONALD TRUMP’s 2005 lewd comments about women. Thus, it appears that the big story of the weekend probably didn’t affect the numbers much, if at all. The poll had Trump leading Democratic candidate HILLARY CLINTON 46-41, with 7 percent for someone else and 5 percent undecided.

Asked about their views on the candidates in the 99th, the tally on Jimenez was 35 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable and 31 percent not sure. DelGiorno’s numbers were 31 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable and 42 percent not sure.

Mitt Romney won that district 57-41 four years ago, so most assumed this would be a straight uphill climb for the Democrat DelGiorno. But there are tons of AFSCME members in the 99th. And it pains me to no end to write this, but we’re talking about a white-dominated Downstate district in the Year of Trump’s Wall and a legislator with a Latino married name. Ugh, that was hard to say, especially since I live in her district and I’ve known Sara for a very long time. But there’s just no getting away from it this year. The hate has been ginned up like we haven’t seen in a long while.

Even so, DelGiorno’s got a ways to go before he wins and he doesn’t yet have the cash.

Also, I’ve noticed a stark difference in polling results from both sides this year. It could be the different turnout models they’re using. So, maybe this PPP poll is just way off. We’ll all know for sure in less than a month.

* But there may also be something else going on. FiveThirtyEight published a study of every county in the country this week. As we all know by now, Hillary Clinton is doing better than previous Democrats with minorities and college-educated whites, while Donald Trump is doing better than previous Republicans with non-college-educated whites

To get a handle on how these shifts could affect the electoral landscape, we modeled how many of Romney’s votes came from college-educated whites and minorities and how many of Obama’s votes came from non-college-educated whites in each state, county and congressional district. The difference between these two vote totals, shown in the map above, can tell us where Clinton and Trump have the most potential to build on 2012.

Then we went a step further: How would the 2016 map look if one out of every five whites without a college degree who voted for Obama in 2012 defected to Trump and if one out of every five non-whites and college-educated whites who voted for Romney in 2012 switched to Clinton? (Why one out of five? It’s a somewhat arbitrary number but represents a realistic shift of these groups, according to polls released over the past few months.) […]

To gauge Clinton’s and Trump’s upside potential, we began by reverse-engineering the 2012 electorate in each state, county and congressional district. To do this, we used population data from the Census Bureau’s 2012 American Community Survey and voter turnout data from its 2012 voting and registration report to estimate the demographic breakdown of the electorate within each geographic area by five groups: college-educated whites, non-college-educated whites, African-Americans, Latinos, and Asians/others.

Then, using using data from 2012 and 2008 exit polls, we estimated Obama’s and Romney’s levels of support from each group within each state. We applied those support levels within each geographic area and adjusted each subgroup’s vote totals proportionally to fit the actual reported votes for each state, county and district. […]

Finally, we used these estimates to calculate, in each state, county and district, the share of college-educated whites and minorities who voted for Romney and the share of non-college-educated whites who voted for Obama. Our “Vote Swap” scenario depicts what would happen if 20 percent of each of those groups switched parties in 2016.

* The 99th is solely within Sangamon County

This is imperfect because the county is obviously not wholly within the 99th and the bulk of the county’s African-American population is in a different House district. Also, I just have no idea if 538’s thesis is sound. But it gives you an idea of what the 2016 shift could be and may help explain DelGiorno’s polling numbers.

* Do you see anything else in the map that stands out for you?

  85 Comments      


You use what works

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Finke

Democratic Illinois House candidate Mike Mathis said a Republican Party mailer linking him to a convicted child sex offender is “slanderous lies intended only to scare voters about a frightening issue.”

The state Republican Party in turn accused the state Democratic Party of sending mail into the district that misrepresents Mathis’ opponent Rep. Avery Bourne’s record, including that she supports cuts to Social Security and Medicare, which are federal programs not considered by the General Assembly.

We’ve talked about both of these issues before. Dan Proft’s Liberty Princples PAC is even running a TV ad in a different district whacking the Democrats for using Social Security and Medicare in a state campaign by quoting this site’s explanation about why they do it. Click here to watch it.

* But that GOP ad tying Democrats to imprisoned former Rep. Keith Farnham is really causing a stir

“I am shocked and saddened by my opponent’s shameless, lying mailers, attempting to scare people without any regard for the truth,” Mathis said in a statement. “I have never met or done business with the criminal she mentions.”

It’s actually an Illinois Republican Party mailer, and GOP spokesman Aaron DeGroot defended it

“Mathis for a period of time was chairman of the Illinois Democratic County Chairman’s Association and fundraised for Mike Madigan and Madigan’s candidates,” DeGroot said. “He spoke about Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn publicly and supported them. So that’s the connection there.”

Kinda weak, but, as the headline says, you use what works and they think this works.

* Plus, as I wrote about the other day, this is payback for similar Democratic mailers, including in that district

Another mailer said Bourne voted to allow “dangerous sex offenders” and other criminals to be released from prison earlier, “permitting felons to get into our neighborhoods and endanger our families.” That was in reference to Bourne voting in favor of a bill that gave prison inmates 30 additional days of sentence credit if they completed a high school equivalency degree in prison. The bill passed the House on a vote of 95-19. Republican Reps. Tim Butler of Springfield, C.D. Davidsmeyer of Jacksonville and then-Rep. Raymond Poe, R-Springfield, also voted for the bill.

  18 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Oct 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

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Question of the day

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your own caption?…


  57 Comments      


Illinois African-American Republican teen blamed for huge national poll skew

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* If you’re following national polling average sites like RCP, you know that the Los Angeles Times/USC poll has shown Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton when pretty much all other polls have shown Clinton ahead. Well it turns out that a single polling “panelist,” who is a 19 year-old Illinois African-American has been skewing the results (of a highly questionable methodology) because he is supporting Trump

In some polls, he’s weighted as much as 30 times more than the average respondent, and as much as 300 times more than the least-weighted respondent.

Alone, he has been enough to put Mr. Trump in double digits of support among black voters. He can improve Mr. Trump’s margin by 1 point in the survey, even though he is one of around 3,000 panelists.

He is also the reason Mrs. Clinton took the lead in the U.S.C./LAT poll for the first time in a month on Wednesday. The poll includes only the last seven days of respondents, and he hasn’t taken the poll since Oct. 4. Mrs. Clinton surged once he was out of the sample for the first time in several weeks.

How has he made such a difference? And why has the poll been such an outlier? It’s because the U.S.C./LAT poll made a number of unusual decisions in designing and weighting its survey.

There’s a lot more to this, so go read the whole thing.

  23 Comments      


FEC complaint filed against Proft newspapers

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Meh

Kim Savage, a Democrat from the Chicago suburb of Darien, argues in a Federal Election Commission filing that the DuPage Policy Journal is not an independent newspaper, but controlled by businessman and radio talk-show host Dan Proft through his political action committee, Liberty Principles PAC, which got a $2.5 million contribution last June from Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner.

The paper is one of 14 co-owned by Proft that appeared last spring before the state’s primary elections.

The complaint, filed last week in Washington, maintains the DuPage Policy Journal is illegally coordinating with GOP congressional candidate Tonia Khouri and that its publication costs should be reported as political contributions in her race to unseat incumbent Democratic Rep. Bill Foster.

The PAC, Proft, Khouri for Congress and the Khouri campaign treasurer are named in the FEC document. It contends the DuPage paper is not entitled to a press exemption from campaign finance laws because it’s run by a political organization, is not published regularly, is sent to doorsteps or left in high traffic areas for free and includes “coordinated communications” with a candidate that the law bars for so-called independent expenditure committees.

The problem with this filing is that, according to Bernie last summer, the papers are owned by a private company called Local Government Information Services. Proft is, however, a principal of LGIS.

Look, I do not want the federal government defining what is and is not a legit media company. Progress Illinois does good work, but it gets most of its money from SEIU. I don’t know who funds Illinois Review, but I’m fine with them, too. Stay the heck away.

* Meanwhile, the Proft papers came up in a recent story by David Giuliani at the Ottawa Times

The chain was started in the winter by the Chicago-based Liberty Principles PAC, which receives much of its money from Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. Over the summer, a private corporation, Local Government Information Services Inc., took possession of the papers, Proft said.

The company filed its corporate paperwork with the state in mid-August, a few weeks into its management of the papers.

The Times asked Proft how the company makes money with its newspapers.

“I’m certain you don’t understand how newspapers or businesses make money,” Proft said in an email to a reporter. “In addition to ads, have you ever heard of the concept of subscriptions as a revenue source for newspapers, for example? Are you familiar with the concept of seed capital used to launch and grow a business? I didn’t think so.”

Proft said the reporter could not be fair in reporting about his company’s newspapers, suggesting the reporter favors Long’s opponent, Rep. Andy Skoog, D-La Salle.

“That makes you an advocate not a journalist. So please make sure Andy Skoog reports your ’stories’ as in-kind contributions (in his campaign reports),” Proft said in an email.

That’s pretty funny considering that Giuliani has been all over Speaker Madigan’s involvement in Rep. Andy Skoog’s race and has filed numerous stories about the Frank Mautino scandal. Giuliani is also a former Illinois Policy Institute staff member.

  23 Comments      


How “blue” is Illinois this year?

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This hypothetical result for Illinois from FiveThirtyEight is no surprise at all

* But this one is interesting

We’re a more diverse state than many others, so that explains much of it, but not all of it.

…Adding… If you look at the crosstabs from the latest Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll, Clinton leads Trump among all whites 45-35, including leaners. Clinton leads among men 47-35. Men were slightly less than half the sample, but they don’t break results down by gender plus race, so it’s impossible to tell what the white male result is.

  70 Comments      


Paging ITLA!

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Great idea. Just great

Future autonomous Mercedes vehicles will prioritise saving their own occupants in no-win traffic situations, its safety executives have told Auto Express.

The tricky moral question continues to be debated by lawmakers, ethicists and lawyers, but for Mercedes’s Manager of Driver Assistance Systems, Active Safety and Ratings, the answer couldn’t be clearer.

“If you know you can save at least one person, at least save that one. Save the one in the car,” Christoph von Hugo said in an interview at the recent Paris Motor Show.

“If all you know for sure is that one thing, one death, can be prevented then that’s your first priority.

So, go ahead and plow into a big crowd of pedestrians leaving a concert and crossing Michigan Ave. against the light to save the car’s occupant.

Hilarious!

  43 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Drilling down into the impasse impact

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Back to that Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…

Most Illinois voters say the state budget stalemate is not having an impact on their lives, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. […]

The survey of 1000 registered voters was taken Sept. 27-Oct. 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three point one percentage points.

Of the total sample, 34 percent said they were personally affected by the crisis while 62 percent were unaffected. Those opinions have varied little during the past year.

Dr. Linda Baker, university professor at the Institute, said “Illinoisans are aware that the budget crisis is no longer an abstract question, but instead something that is growing in significance and having an effect on the state’s ability to attract and retain businesses and residents.”

“One hopeful finding is the increased percentage of Illinoisans who see the solution as a mix of both budget cuts and increasing revenues. Hopefully this can help spur policymakers on both sides of the aisle to consider a compromise that includes solutions offered by both parties,” she said.

David Yepsen, director of the Institute, said “I’m surprised more people aren’t feeling affected by this deadlock in Springfield. I thought the numbers of people impacted would be increasing as it wore on but it’s also true many people aren’t impacted by changes in government services.”

Among those who saw an impact on their own lives, the largest group - at 18 percent - saw the budget stalemate as the cause of their job loss or threat of loss. Another 15 percent saw it as the cause of cuts to general social services and 14 percent perceived it as the source of cuts to K-12 education funding.

* The actual question…

Have you or someone in your immediate family been affected by the Illinois budget stalemate?

Social Services 47.8%

    Social services (generally) 14.7%
    K-12 education 13.9%
    Mental health care 6.5%
    Child care costs/services 5.9%
    Higher education (including MAP grants) 5.6%
    Drug treatment costs/services 1.2%

Economic (job, housing, etc.) 31.0%

    Job lost/threatened 18.3 %
    Economy (generally) 8.3%
    Housing (affordability/quality) 3.2%
    Utility assistance program cuts (home heat, air, etc.) 1.2%

Local government/area 10.7%

    Local economy 4.7%
    City government cuts 2.4%
    Highway and road construction/maintenance 2.1%
    Facility closure 1.5%

Other 4.4%
Don’t know 6.2%

So, let’s count “you or someone in your immediate family” as households. There are 4.6 million households in Illinois, or about 39,000 in each of the 118 state House districts.

That means, with this particular interpretation (which isn’t quite accurate, but it’s close enough for our purposes here), over 13,000 households in each House district are impacted in some way or another by the impasse. You’d think that would cause a greater response from legislators. I mean, they get all freaked out when a much smaller fraction of that total are upset about something.

* Also, 7,000 households in each House district contained someone who either lost their job or has been threatened by job loss due to the impasse? That’s huge. It probably doesn’t line up with reality, but the perception is gigantic and legislators should beware.

And speaking of not lining up with reality, 14 percent think K-12 funding has been cut, which isn’t the case, but that’s what they think.

*** UPDATE ***  Press release…

John Bouman, President of the Sargent Shriver National Center on Poverty Law and Chair of the Responsible Budget Coalition’s Executive Committee, today released the following statement regarding a new Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll measuring opinions on the state budget stalemate in Illinois:

“34 percent of respondents said they were personally affected by the budget crisis. The poll confirms what the Responsible Budget Coalition’s network of advocates and providers already know - over one million people have already been hurt by the loss of jobs and services because of Illinois’ failure to pass a fully funded, responsible budget. Millions more are threatened as the impasse continues.

In the wake of the stopgap budget Band-Aid, news stories about budget impasse have dropped from the front pages. That doesn’t cover the fact that real people and businesses continue to be negatively impacted by the direct and indirect costs of the collective failure to produce a real budget.

These numbers should get the attention of lawmakers who have turned their eyes away from Springfield in favor of a focus on elections. The effects of inaction are felt by voters in every legislative district. While the poll clearly shows that voters favor differing approaches to resolving the crisis, they all want it solved responsibly and quickly.”

  33 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Parody video reposted *** More details emerge from the murk

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Remember how the Illinois Policy Institute’s Diana Rickert denied my claim that I’d been duped into appearing in the Institute’s “documentary” about Speaker Madigan?

Illinois Policy’s Diana Rickert said in a response to Illinois Playbook: “Rich’s comments are strange. The film crew is top notch, and was very forthcoming about the scope of the documentary and our involvement when asked who was funding the project. We’ve been critical of Speaker Madigan and his political machine for many years, so we’re certainly not shy about our work on this issue. It’s not like Rich was stopped on the sidewalk in Springfield and caught off-guard with a random guy filming with his iPhone; the interview was scheduled in advance, he signed a release form and he even went out for drinks with the film crew after they were done. Our research was used as the premise of many questions. Some of the other interviews for our documentary were even filmed in our Chicago office.”

Rickert’s statement was refuted last month when the production company told Bernie that I had, indeed, been duped.

* And the film’s “executive producer” John Papola admitted it again yesterday after a special screening in Chicago

Papola admitted he kept many of the subjects in the dark about Illinois Policy Institute’s involvement in the project. “I know there’s been some controversy in the local press … Because this was an independent project, because that was a condition of us coming on board, because we know Illinois Policy takes stances on issues, we treated this in much of the same way we handled our other projects … The partners or financiers of the film was really not something — that was kept close to the vest as far as myself and the head of production and the field team wasn’t really armed to talk about that.”

Except they did tell some people, like John Kass and Dick Simpson.

* The Institute was also far more involved with the content than Rickert initially admitted. The production company didn’t just use the Institute’s research, an Institute employee wrote the script

Illinois Policy “gave us creative control over the project,” Papola said after the event. Then he explained that the film’s writer was Austin Berg, who works for the Policy Institute.

Creative content — After he was pressed, Papola said Berg: “was bringing lots of material to the table … Austin brought a wealth of knowledge to the table that would have been very difficult for us to produce from scratch.”

* So, they financed it and wrote it. And Mark Brown isn’t buying that Papola had total control

So they hired John Papola, an “award-winning documentary filmmaker” from Texas who hails from the East Coast and probably couldn’t find Springfield without Google Maps. Papola then made a movie channeling the exact narrative that Rauner and the Illinois Policy Institute embrace. […]

Berg assured me after Tuesday’s screening at the Siskel Center that the movie was financed by the organization’s “thousands of contributors,” not any particular billionaire.

But Papola swears he took a journalistic approach and had final creative control. As far as adopting the Policy Institute’s point of view of Madigan, Papola said he didn’t see how anyone could hold any other opinion after reviewing the facts — that were spoonfed to him by the Policy Institute.

* And then there’s weird stuff like this…


Did I mention that Rod’s brother Rob cooperated with the project and appears in the “documentary”?

* And this…


* This parody preview, however, is priceless…

A little bit of naughty language at the end, so be careful at work, but it’s pretty darned funny…

From the same people who brought you fake newspapers, fake radio networks, and fake policy institutes comes the fake documentary Gov. Rauner (fake) says he didn’t pay for.

And then Sgt. Schultz makes an appearance. Whoever did that is brilliant.

*** UPDATE ***  The parody video was removed after the Illinois Policy Institute objected to the creators using its name on the Vimeo page and in e-mails to publicize it. But the Institute said they had no problem with me posting it on YouTube, so here it is

  72 Comments      


Ask a stupid question…

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Most Illinois voters say the state budget stalemate is not having an impact on their lives, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

Voters also remain divided over how to fix the state’s budget woes. There are 44 percent who favor cuts, 12 percent who favor tax increases and 33 percent who favor both.

Except respondents weren’t asked about actual “cuts.”

* The question…

The state of Illinois has a budget deficit of over 9 billion dollars. I’m going to read three statements that people have made about how to fix the deficit, and ask you which one comes closest to your views. If you haven’t though much about this issue, just tell me that.

    · Illinois’ public programs and services have already been reduced significantly. We can only fix the problem by taking in more revenue, such as a tax increase. (12.1%)
    · The state takes in plenty of money to pay for public services, but wastes it on unnecessary programs. We can only fix the problem by cutting waste and inefficiency in government. (43.9%)
    · Illinois’ budget problem is so large it can only be solved by a combination of budget cuts and revenue increases. (33.1%)

Emphasis added because when you phrase a question like that, of course people are gonna choose cutting all that wasteful spending from that horrible state government. Give them a list of $9 billion in program cuts, however, and you’ll watch them run away screaming in panic like most legislators do.

Garbage in, garbage out.

C’mon, man.

  24 Comments      


Roskam’s flip-flop on Trump

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Last week, Congressman Peter Roskam told the Daily Herald this about Donald Trump

Roskam said the election is a “binary choice” and he was planning to vote for Trump.

* And then came Monday

Several suburban Republicans in Congress would not say Monday whether they are following House Speaker Paul Ryan in his decision not to defend or campaign for their party’s nominee for president. […]

U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam of Wheaton, previously the No. 4 member of the House who’s worked closely with Ryan, called Trump’s comments and the attitude that they reflect “disgusting and corrosive. They fly in the face of every lesson (my wife) Elizabeth and I taught our daughters and sons about how men and women should interact.”

Asked whether Roskam still intended to vote for Trump, Roskam spokesman Davis Pasch would not comment.

Roskam, in his statement, said of Trump: “He says he has changed and this is not who he is today. Political figures in the past have claimed to change, and some of them have been sincere. Donald Trump is the only person who can prove he means what he says now, and he’s got work to do.”

* On Tuesday morning, his spokesman e-mailed the paper

“I can confirm he is still planning to vote for Donald Trump”

* And then

Just hours after saying U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam was planning to vote for Donald Trump, spokesman David Pasch on Tuesday rescinded the remark.

Instead, Pasch released a written statement saying Roskam is undecided on how he will vote Nov. 8.

“Hillary Clinton has already disqualified herself by her actions and deeds,” Pasch wrote in an email Tuesday afternoon. “Donald Trump has 28 days left to convince him (Roskam) that he’s the right person to fix our broken tax code, bring accountability to the federal government, and restore American leadership to the world stage.”

  34 Comments      


Duckworth hit again on VA issues

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The NRSC is airing an ad that is approved by the Mark Kirk campaign which attacks Tammy Duckworth again on the VA whistleblower issue

I’m told the Kirk campaign has found no images of Duckworth with Speaker Madigan. Too bad. They’re about the only campaign in the state without a “Because… Madigan!” angle.

* Tribune

The ad features two whistleblowers at suburban Edward Hines Jr. VA hospital who said they voiced concerns to Duckworth as a congresswoman and said she failed to act.

“I think the reaction Congresswoman Duckworth had was one of avoidance and denial,” said Dr. Lisa Nee, a cardiologist. Germaine Clarno, a union social worker, said of Duckworth, “Nothing happened. I’m yelling and screaming that our veterans are being harmed.”

A female narrator closes the ad by saying, “Tammy put political ambition before our veterans. That’s shameful.” […]

Duckworth’s campaign has said it raised $4.1 million from July through September and had $4.3 million left to start the month. Kirk’s camp had not revealed similar numbers that are due Saturday.

* In other news, here’s the Sun-Times

A super PAC created specifically to bolster Sen. Mark Kirk’s GOP re-election bid is a stark example of how mega-donors legally skirt federal caps on individual contributions.

Fueled by jumbo donations, the Independent Voice for Illinois super PAC has spent more than $1 million in negative television ads attacking Kirk’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Tammy Duckworth. […]

As of June 30, the latest FEC report, the largest donors to Independent Voice are two of the biggest Republican donors in the nation.

Chicago’s Ken Griffin, the founder of the Citadel financial services firm, pumped $350,000 into Independent Voice.

Paul Singer, the New York hedge fund mogul who in the last week made the Washington Post’s list of the 10 mega-donors of the 2016 cycle, sent $250,000 to the fund.

The GOP wing of the Cubs-owning Ricketts family sent $50,000 through one of their super PACs, too.

* Related…

* Kirk endorsed by animal rights group

* ABC7 to host debate with US Senate candidates Mark Kirk, Tammy Duckworth on Nov. 4

* Duckworth gets fundraising assist from Obama during Chicago visit

* IL Senator Mark Kirk hears from Veterans in Reynolds, talks Trump

  6 Comments      


Voting Green to help Rauner?

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Phillip O’Connor, a former Republican member of the Illinois State Board of Elections and former chairman of the Illinois Commerce Commission under Jim Thompson plans to vote for Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein in order to help Gov. Bruce Rauner

If Stein receives 5 percent or more of the presidential vote in Illinois on Nov. 8, then the Green Party will qualify as an “established political party,” making it eligible to place a full slate of candidates on the 2018 statewide ballot. A Green Party candidate for governor in 2018 will attract several percentage points of the total vote — most of it coming at the expense of the Democratic nominee.

In 2014, Rauner defeated incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn by less than 5 percent of the vote. At the same time, the Libertarian gubernatorial candidate garnered more than 3 percent, much of it coming from voters who might otherwise have voted for Rauner.

The Libertarian presidential candidate, Gary Johnson, propelled by a thoughtful endorsement from the Chicago Tribune, will almost certainly exceed that 5 percent threshold in Illinois, guaranteeing a Libertarian gubernatorial candidate in 2018. […]

Illinois needs the sort of political tension that Rauner has brought as governor. Even those who do not agree with his positions ought to concede that Illinois should no longer go on as a one-party state. We should not return to the time when the only meaningful policy debates are within the Democratic Party, with one group of Democrats arguing for more taxes and spending while the other faction argues for even more taxes and spending. […]

So, I will make my vote count now for Gov. Rauner in 2018 by voting for the Green Party presidential candidate this year.

Back in 2006, Green Party gubernatorial candidate Rich Whitney got over 10 percent of the vote, but Democrat Rod Blagojevich still beat his GOP opponent by 10 points. That was a darned good year for Democrats, however.

Third party candidates do tend to take evenly from both sides, but don’t tell that to Al Gore.

  44 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Mendoza cries foul, cites Rauner as Munger throws the kitchen sink at her

Wednesday, Oct 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up for visibility.]

* Comptroller Leslie Munger’s new TV ad throws Mike Madigan, career politician, double-dipping, unbalanced budgets, tax hikes and pension holidays at her Democratic opponent Susana Mendoza

* Script…

Meet Susana Mendoza, Mike Madigan’s political sidekick.

Mendoza has taken “career politician” to a new level. She collected two public salaries at the same time, raking in almost $2 million in taxpayer money and building two pensions.

And how does she pay for her double-dipping? Mendoza voted for unbalanced budgets, tax increases and even pension holidays that forced Illinois into a fiscal crisis. She even voted for the largest tax hike in state history.

Mendoza-Madigan, putting politics above people and Illinois just can’t afford her.

* Response from the Mendoza campaign…

“Leslie Munger’s false, negative ads, including her lie about double dipping - previously debunked by documented proof - are almost entirely bankrolled by just two of Bruce Rauner’s billionaire friends. You can make up a lot of lies with that kind of money, but it doesn’t change that fact that Leslie Munger, Rauner’s self-described “wingman”, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Governor Rauner, not the independent watchdog Illinois taxpayers desperately need.”

  37 Comments      


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* Campaign news: Big Raja money; Benton over-shares; Rashid's large cash pile; Jeffries to speak at IDCCA brunch
* Rep. Hoan Huynh jumps into packed race for Schakowsky’s seat (Updated)
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