* Hotshot prognosticator and polling analyst Nate Silver over at the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight site has completed his Congressional district analyses and concluded that two Democratic-held districts in Illinois may very well flip to the Republicans.
There’s a 63 percent chance that the 14th District will be captured by the Republicans, Silver writes. Democrat Bill Foster is the incumbent. State Sen. Randy Hultgren is the GOP challenger. The race is on FiveThirtyEight’s “Lean Takeover” list.
* Third-time Democratic candidate Dan Seals has just a 53 percent chance of winning the 10th District open seat contest against Republican Bob Dold, Silver says. The seat is currently held by Republican Mark Kirk. The race is on FiveThirtyEight’s “Even Chance of Takeover” list.
Silver gives Democratic incumbent Phil Hare a 74 percent chance of victory. That belies unreleased polling which definitely puts the race in play, but FiveThirtyEight still has this one on a “Takeover Possible” list.
All other incumbents of both parties here are given 100 percent chances of winning.
* Silver is predicting the Republicans have a 2 in 3 chance of taking control of the US House. His predictive model is based on numerous factors, including the generic ballot, the president’s overall and issue-specific approval ratings and lots of other factors to the point where Silver calls it the “kitchen sink” approach…
FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model does not look solely at these national indicators. Instead, it evaluates the outcome in each of the 435 Congressional districts in which voters will cast ballots this fall. Although the generic ballot has some predictive power even at the local level, our analysis has found that it is not any more important – and in many circumstances, less important – than a series of metrics that can be applied to individual districts. For example, race ratings published by expert forecasters – and particularly those produced by Cook Political and CQ Politics – have an outstanding track record and are used extensively in our model. These forecasts generally point to a somewhat milder outcome for Democrats – perhaps a loss of about 40 seats.
The model also makes use of polls of individual House districts, where they are available. Because nonpartisan polls of individual races are relatively rare, this model includes polls commissioned by campaigns, or by other explicitly partisan organizations (although such polls are subject to a significant adjustment that anticipates their potential bias). However, in contrast with our other forecasting products, our House model gives no particular deference to the polls, and instead they are but one of the series of indicators that we evaluate. Polling in individual House races can often be unreliable, as many voters don’t familiarize themselves with the candidates until late in the election cycle, and as the demographics of individual Congressional districts can be idiosyncratic as compared with larger regions like states.
And this year, there are often significant disagreements – sometimes, even double-digit gaps – among pollsters who are surveying the same House races. The polls can nevertheless have some value when analyzed carefully. But, except in the rare case where there are several trustworthy polls available in the same House district, it is best to combine them with other indicators, our analysis finds.
The model also looks at the amount of fund-raising by each candidate – in particular, at the amount raised from individual contributors, which can be a leading indicator of both the enthusiasm for a particular candidate and the strength of his or her organizational infrastructure. This fund-raising data can have quite a lot of predictive power, although it diminishes somewhat as the campaign evolves (if the candidate is not successful at using their monetary resources to persuade individual voters). Democratic candidates for the House had a very slight edge in individual contributions through the Federal Election Commission’s June reporting period, although it may reverse itself when third-quarter fund-raising reports are released this month.
Finally, the model evaluates past voting in the Congressional district, both in presidential campaigns and prior House elections. But such data needs to be interpreted carefully: past voting is much less meaningful once an incumbent retires, for instance, or if the candidate had not faced serious opposition from the other party in the last election. And voting follows slightly different patterns for the presidency and for Congress: poorer districts sometimes split their ticket between a Congressional Democrat and a Republican president, while the reverse is sometimes true for wealthier ones.
* Joel Brunsvold passed away this week and I really couldn’t give him a better sendoff than this Dispatch-Argus editorial…
If you drive across Veterans Memorial Bridge at Carr’s Crossing or take a stroll in a beautiful state park. If you play the slots at Jumer’s or attend a concert or a sporting event at the i wireless Center. If you or someone you know was saved by calling 911. If you fish or boat on an Illinois waterway, hunt duck or admire a mother and fawn against a beautiful sunset, you have Joel Brunsvold to thank for the privilege.
In the wake of the untimely death of the longtime public servant, Quad-Citians this week are treasuring the wonderful gifts like these which he gave to the the Quad-Cities and to the state. As mayor of Milan, he set that city on the path to the current and impressive progress it has seen in recent years. Mayor Duane Dawson is among those who were mentored by the former teacher and coach.
Speaking of coaching, he was a talented, record-breaking athlete in his own right who worked tirelessly for young people. For example, he trucked cinders to Sherrard High School so that it could have a track. Education remained a top priority in the 20 years as state representative.
He was, of course, a Democrat and served as Speaker Mike Madigan’s assistant majority leader, but that didn’t stop him from reaching across the aisle to do what needed to be done. Unlike the angry partisans too often on display today, he was a gentleman legislator who counted Democrats and Republicans among his friends. Rep. Brunsvold “personified what a lawmaker should be,” said reporter Scott Reeder, who covered him in the Quad-Cities and later in Springfield. “He never lost sight of who he was: a school teacher from the Quad-Cities. The Illinois General Assembly can be a pretentious place but Joel remained down-to-earth and approachable throughout his long career. He was a knowledgeable educator drafting legislation, a champion of gun-owner rights, a member of the House leadership team and the beloved coach of the House softball team.”
* The Speaker has said this before, but he’s seen the polling and he knows what Gov. Pat Quinn is doing to his targeted incumbents, so it was apparently time to say it again…
Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan today said he’s opposed to Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn’s plan to increase the income tax and isn’t sure if lawmakers will go along with the idea when they return to Springfield following the November election.
“I am not a proponent of the tax increase, so I have no idea if the tax increase will pass or not,” Madigan said following a ribbon cutting for a union training center on the city’s West Side.
Madigan is working toward maintaining control of the House this fall. If he advocated a tax hike, that could be used against Democratic House candidates across Illinois. […]
“The governor stands firm that a 1 percent education surcharge is something that we need to help the state address it’s budget challenges,” said Quinn budget spokeswoman Kelly Kraft. “He is optimistic that lawmakers will do what’s right for Illinois.”
Remember towards the end of the movie “Titanic” when Kate Winslet finally let go of the frozen solid Leonardo DiCaprio and he floated to the bottom of the sea with their sunken ship? That’s kinda like this.
* For months, the Quinnsters laughed at the prospect that Bill Brady could win the governor’s race. Now, a least, Gov. Pat Quinn finally seems to understand that he’s this/close to toasthood…
Asked Thursday who should replace Mayor Richard Daley, Gov. Pat Quinn indicated he’s got enough of his own political problems.
“I am in the political fight of my life,” Quinn said. “I don’t think I need to be prognosticating on a race that’s down the road a piece.”
* The Quinn people, meanwhile, have reworked a video of Mike Ditka from July of 2009. I wonder how Da Coach feels about his old comments now that Quinn has been in office awhile…
“I took 24 hours to think about it,” he said. “But I’ve decided the race I’m in is too important to leave. It’s an opportunity for voters to take a stand against the insider culture that’s bankrupted our state and polluted our politics.”
Cook County Sherriff Tom Dart was inching closer to an announcement, which will come only if he gets the expected blessing of Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan.
Somebody clue this guy in, please. Dart has been a thorn in Madigan’s side for years, and vice-versa. The South Side Irish are often thought of as monolithical. They ain’t. Heck, you practically need a passport to cross the street in the 19th Ward.
Conflicting election questionnaire responses suggest a Cook County Board candidate may have been less than truthful about his criminal record, though his campaign blamed it on a staff member’s mistake.
In 1991 Maher, then a freshman at Illinois State University in Bloomington, was arrested and charged with felony aggravated battery after the brutal beating of another student. According to police records, Maher and a friend went to the dormroom of a man who had once dated Maher’s girlfriend. The victim suffered a broken jaw, broken eye socket and 25 stitches. Witnesses described finding a “puddle of blood” in his dorm room. He was hospitalized for two days.
But it’s the questionnaire. Yeah. Good one.
By the way, Maher’s cousin is Comptroller Dan Hynes. Then again, I have a cousin in prison for a double murder. One can’t be judged by one’s relatives. Of course, my cousin didn’t run for office, so I doubt he ever filled out a candidate questionnaire.
* Back to the statewides. A fight broke out in comments on our Question of the Day over numerous topics. I put a stop to it, but it can now resume here. From a statement by Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady…
“It is curious that Robin Kelly would focus on Ethics given her choice to remain on government payroll and collect full-time state benefits even as she campaigns for elected office in all parts of the state. Even more stunning is her brazen choice to hold an Ethics press conference at 1:30 p.m. Thursday while other ‘full time’ employees are required to, well, be at work.
“While the arrogance is fitting for an Illinois Democrat trained in mold of Blagojevich and Giannoulias, it is not in line with the honest leadership our state requires for its future. If Kelly is serious about Ethics change, she should start by changing her payroll status or changing the time of her political activities. Until then she is just another candidate who says one thing while doing another - and Illinois voters have had enough of those.”
But since a prize is involved, I’m forced to make a decision.
* Fifth runner-up goes to Anonymiss…
“Great, now we don’t match. You said to wear blue. I thought you meant eyeshadow. Stop laughing, this isn’t funny.”
I loved that entry, but I already owe her drinks, so I didn’t want to add to my debt.
* Our fourth runner-up is Rep. John Fritchey for this golden nugget…
“I told her those weren’t regular brownies,” chuckled Sen. Brady to Sen. Rutherford as JBT tries to win a staring contest against a microphone.
I almost awarded the top prize to Fritchey, but there’s no way we could limit this to a one-hour cocktail time, so he’s a no-go.
* Third runner-up is from Don’t Worry, Be Happy…
Bill Brady and Dan Rutherford laugh as Rich Miller’s head explodes due to Judy Baar Topinka’s psychic onslaught. Asked about the incident later, Topinka shrugged and said “well, he used an unflattering picture of me on his blog, so he had it coming.”
Yes, I probably did.
* Lefty Lefty is our second runner-up for most creative use of current pop culture…
At the 2040 Reunion of the Juggalos, Tila Tequila recounts her pummeling with food and beer bottles at the 2010 Gathering while Violent J and Shaggy 2 Dope laugh it up. The crowd threw their dentures and Metamucil but much of it didn’t reach the stage.
* First runner-up goes to Oswego Willy, our resident Jason Plummer hater…
Plummer: “Before I begin … Whoever has a van, license plate ‘ABC 123′ with Judy Topinka signs all over it … The wiffle ball that broke your winshield is mine, sorry about that.”
He might’ve won had it not been for the misspellings. Then again, those may have been intentionally ironic. We’ll never know.
* Top prize and a one-hour cocktail party goes to Way Way Down Here. I’m pretty sure he’s referring to David Miller, Topinka’s Democratic opponent. At least, I hope so…
JBT: Get up Miller and I’ll give you another one just like it.
BB: Yeah get up.
DR: Yeah another one.
WWDH should use the “Contact Me” button so we can set up a time and place. Congratulations. And thanks much to everyone for playing. We had over 200 comments, which was pretty amazing.
* How about we try another one? Potential mayoral candidate Sheriff Tom Dart loves him some puppies…
* We haven’t had a whole lot of news about the state treasurer’s race, but things have heated up since Democratic nominee Robin Kelly accused Republican state Sen. Dan Rutherford of violating state law…
According to state campaign records, Rutherford this year received two contributions worth $3,000 from Fred Drake, the chief executive officer of Bloomington-based Heartland Bank & Trust Co.
He also received a $500 contribution from Pan American Bank.
Kelly, who is a top aide to state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, said since Heartland is a depository for state funds over $50,000, Rutherford is in violation of newly enacted pay-to-play laws aimed at cracking down on businesses getting lucrative state contracts by doling out campaign dollars. Pan American, she said, bid on a contract that would have been worth more than the $50,000 cap.
“Given the scandal and controversy surrounding Illinois politics, I am extremely troubled and disappointed that my opponent would take political money from banks that are doing more than $1 million in state business with the Treasurer’s Office,” said Kelly.
Rutherford said neither bank is technically a contractor, meaning they do not fall within the 2009 changes to the state’s campaign finance laws.
“Dan Rutherford has followed the law,” said spokesman Brad Hahn. “She forgot to check her facts.”
Kelly’s campaign has a new campaign video about the dustup. Watch it.
* The Question: Setting aside the legalities, do you think Sen. Rutherford should reverse his decision to accept campaign contributions from banks that have state deposits? Explain.
* This is what happens when ignorance rules the roost at the state’s largest newspaper. Today’s Tribune editorial lauds the House Republicans for proposing a series of reforms…
The state would move to a performance-based budgeting process, requiring state agencies to defend their requests based on how effectively they’d spent the previous year’s funding.
This idea was actually signed into law on July 1st. A member of the Tribune editorial board was told back in May that this bill was in the hopper. The bill’s original sponsor even sent the Tribune an op-ed in May which the paper never published. From that op-ed…
Budgeting for Outcomes (BFO) gives us the chance to change the rules of the Illinois budget game. Also known as “Results Budgeting,” BFO starts with identifying what revenue is actually available and defining spending priorities (for example, job creation, education, healthcare, transportation, public safety). It then requires measurable outcomes for money spent and encourages creative ways of achieving these goals within the limited resources available.
Recently adopted by The Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA) as a “recommended practice,” BFO allows taxpayers to be better informed and to get a better return on their investment in Illinois government. It also will ensure greater accountability and transparency in the budget process by requiring annual reports on results achieved from dollars spent. This will give us the necessary information to cut, eliminate or reform programs that are not producing in the future.
Former Washington Gov. Gary Locke introduced BFO in 2002 when his state faced a $2.5 billion shortfall in its budget. The state of Washington’s fiscal situation turned around so dramatically after implementing this initiative that many other states, municipalities and other levels of government converted to this budgeting method and realized immediate results and cost savings. We want Illinois to be the next success story.
You can read the budgeting for outcomes (which is also called performance based budgeting) language by clicking here…
In addition, the amounts recommended by the Governor for appropriation shall take into account each State agency’s effectiveness in achieving its prioritized goals for the previous fiscal year, as set forth in Section 50-25 of this Law, giving priority to agencies and programs that have demonstrated a focus on the prevention of waste and the maximum yield from resources.
Appropriations may be adjusted during the fiscal year by means of one or more supplemental appropriation bills if any State agency either fails to meet or exceeds the goals set forth in Section 50-25 of this Law.
For fiscal year 2012 and thereafter, [the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability shall] develop a 3-year budget forecast for the State, including opportunities and threats concerning anticipated revenues and expenditures, with an appropriate level of detail.
It takes a unanimous vote of the House to override the committee, impossible by definition. Republicans say they’d change that to a three-fifths vote. The idea is to stop party leaders from setting the state agenda unilaterally; an added plus is that it would strip lawmakers of their favorite excuse for enabling the status quo. They’d all vote for reform, they insist, if only they had a chance to vote. The Republicans’ plan would empower them to demand that chance.
What the Republicans are proposing is mere semantics. Right now, it does, indeed, require unanimous consent to pop a bill out of committee and onto the floor. But there’s almost always another immediate vote taken to overrule the presiding officer. That vote requires a three-fifths majority. The Republicans would just skip a step and go right to the three-fifths vote. And if you think that the environment would change because we’d no longer be looking at a simple up or down vote on the Speaker’s prerogative, you’re wrong. It would still be a party-line vote. Bet on it.
Some of the reforms the HGOPs are proposing are good ones. Some, like the committee discharge thing, are just window-dressing. Most don’t go far enough. For instance, one way to free members from the Speaker’s power is to elect committee chairs and forbid the Speaker from controlling their staffs. They’re appointed right now and their staffs all report to the chief of staff, not the chairpersons.
But with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points, the poll essentially put the nine contenders it included all in a statistical dead heat. […]
The survey relied on 600 personal interviews with randomly selected registered Chicago voters. It was conducted Wednesday evening, just a day and a half after Mayor Daley made his stunning announcement that he would not seek a seventh term.
* And there’s not nearly as much fear of the future out there as one might suspect, at least, not yet…
* The pollster the paper used was once brutally slammed by its late political columnist Steve Neal, so the Sun-Times’ choice was odd, to say the least.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the poll did find evidence of votes breaking along racial lines. Dart’s strongest support was among white voters, Meeks’ among black voters, and clearly Gutierrez benefitted the most from his base of Hispanic voters.
Emanuel, who is white, curiously also found his largest base of support among Hispanic voters — conceivably because “Emanuel” can also be read as a Hispanic name.
Voters who said they were most eager to vote were most likely to give their support to Dart or Gutierrez.
The survey did not include every possible candidate but focused on those most often mentioned as likely contenders.
*** UPDATE *** Your exclusive advance copy of this week’s WBEZ program “The Best Game in Town” can now be downloaded. Click here. From the producer…
No offense to the home opener for the Bears, but the best game in town this week is at City Hall. In this episode, it’s Daley, Daley, Daley.
UIC Professor and former Alderman Dick Simpson talks about how the Daley machine occupied the 4th floor of City Hall for 42 years.
WBEZ’s Sam Hudzik parses and analyzes the political rhetoric coming from alderman, jockeying for position.
And we host a roundtable discussion from Schaller’s Pump in Bridgeport, featuring Cheryl Corley (NPR), Salim Muwakkil (In These Times) and Carol Felsenthal (Chicago magazine).
I think I’d pay to see Rahm Emanuel elected mayor of Chicago.
Because I cover state politics, I don’t much care how he’d run the city. I’d love to see Emanuel elected just to watch him fight with House Speaker Michael Madigan.
To say that both men are accustomed to getting their own way and to accumulating massive amounts of power would be a horribly naive understatement. Stand between them and what they want, and you’re gonna get mowed down. They don’t call them “Rahmbo” and “The Velvet Hammer” for nothing.
Mayor Daley also falls into this category, of course. But he and the most powerful speaker in the history of Illinois practically grew up together. Daley’s father was Madigan’s second father. The two are like brothers.
There’s always tension between the brothers, as one fights to outdo the other in the never-ending battle to be the favorite son, but they almost always wind up on the same side. That’s something Rod Blagojevich never understood about them, even after I warned him. Blagojevich thought he could triangulate the two, and I told him he would be strangled instead. He was.
Emanuel has generally gotten his way by outworking, out-thinking and out-muscling his opposition. So has Madigan. And the pile of political corpses outside Madigan’s Statehouse door of those who tried to beat him one way or another is a mile high and a mile wide. There’s a smaller pile outside Emanuel’s door, but only because he hasn’t been around as long.
People who know Emanuel tell me that he can’t stand Madigan.
“He’ll end up strangling the guy,” cracked one longtime pal of Emanuel’s about what will happen if the fiery Rahmbo and Madigan go at it.
Madigan’s usual play is to let newbies come to him, and then make them stew endlessly while he decides what, if anything, he’ll give them. He has always worked with mayors, but there’s only so much he’ll do for anybody, including his brother by a different mother Daley.
Daley spent enough time in Springfield as a state legislator and around Madigan to know that he’d rather not deal with the state Capitol. You’ll be hard-pressed to find any Chicago state legislators who’ve been lobbied personally by Daley. That’s one reason why his grandiose schemes like the downtown casino never came to fruition. He knew the game was rigged, and he didn’t want to be shaken down by the players.
That has also been the case with Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart, who is gearing up for a possible mayoral bid himself.
The sheriff and the speaker never got along when Dart was in the House, and they still don’t. He avoids Springfield like the plague. If he were elected, Dart would likely continue Daley’s general aversion to Springfield, but he wouldn’t have the longtime personal relationship to fall back on in a pinch.
Maybe he’d surprise me, but I just can’t imagine Emanuel letting Springfield — and, by extension, Madigan — do whatever it wants. The man who’s best known for regularly letting his partially amputated middle finger do his talking and who was widely ribbed for reportedly threatening a congressman while naked in the Capitol Hill gym shower just doesn’t appear to be built that way.
So, we’ll probably get a big showdown, at least at first as they test each other’s wills, and those piles of bodies will grow exponentially. Like I said, I’d pay to see that fight.
Of course, I’d rather that we not have a House speaker with so much concentrated power that he runs literally everything. But that’s life in Illinois.
* Rahmbomania roundup…
* Before Emanuel Looks at Mayor’s Job, He Should Look in Mirror: Notably, his managerial record, as opposed to his legislative record, is spotty, according to multiple White House sources without axes to grind. They cite a perceived lack of internal communication; a short attention span; political infighting, notably with Valerie Jarrett, a senior adviser to the president; a limited set of loyalties (many to Clinton-era colleagues); and a surprising lack of decisiveness on personnel matters.
* Mark Kirk isn’t the only one who said he’d go positive and then ran a negative ad. Alexi Giannoulias is doing the same thing. Rate it…
This is mostly a remake of an earlier ad, but with a new twist. At the end of the ad, the announcer says: “Now Mark Kirk is lying about Alexi Giannoulias in ads denounced as smears.” You may think they’re referring to Kirk’s latest hit, but they use a Sun-Times editorial headline from July. That editorial was about Kirk’s attempt to claim one of Alexi’s advisors was a BP lobbyist.
U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Robert Miller took over when his commander was wounded during a 2008 attack in Afghanistan, directing return fire and intentionally putting himself in the most dangerous position to protect his men.
His heroic actions helped save more than 20 fellow soldiers and Afghan army allies but cost the 24-year-old former Wheaton man his own life.
A cafeteria fight may have led to the murder of a 16-year-old Bowen High School student who was shot as he walked home Wednesday, the boy’s family said Thursday.
Sophomore Deantonio Goss became the first Chicago Public Schools student to be killed this school year, just two days after classes resumed at Bowen.
Goss and an 18-year-old friend were shot half a mile from the school — and just a couple of blocks from Goss’ home — around 3 p.m. in an alley in the 8600 block of South Saginaw, police said.
An analysis of the grades shows that a disproportionate number of schools scored in the D range or worse, including 48 percent of elementaries and 68 percent of high schools.
The highest average and median pay offers went to engineering majors. As a group, the average pay offer fell 1.7 percent to $58,669.
The average pay offer for liberal arts graduates fell 3 percent to $35,508. For sociology majors, it climbed 3.1 percent to $35,357. English majors saw a drop of 1.8 percent to $35,946, and for psychology majors, the average offer fell 6.7 percent to $32,260.
The average offer for business majors dipped to $46,672 from $46,735. For economics majors, it rose 4.2 percent to $51,698.
Lura Lynn Ryan isn’t expected to live more than a few years, attorney Dan Webb told Judge Rebecca Pallmeyer. […]
Pallmeyer set a Nov. 1 date to hear arguments on both the bail request and the primary legal question - whether a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that curtailed laws barring public officials from denying taxpayers honest services should nullify some of Ryan’s convictions.
If the convictions are tossed, Ryan could be let out for good - well short of his current release date of 2013.
“When he first came in, a lot of guys said, ‘This guy has potential to be a breath of fresh air.’ He had a contract. He could have run this department the way it’s supposed to be run. He didn’t. The impression of most officers is this department is run by the fifth floor (mayor’s office),” said Bill Dougherty, first vice president of the Fraternal Order of Police.
* OK, maybe it’s time for the media to stop looking for every possible Daley retirement angle and tone it down a bit…
With Mayor Richard Daley set to leave office, it’s time to bring back Meigs Field, according to private pilots who still bemoan the shutdown of the lakefront airport seven years ago.
General aviation pilots from across the country suggest that the changing political climate in the Chicago will not only lead to a new mayor, but also possibly a new Meigs.
“From what we’re hearing and seeing, the aviation blogs and Twitter are alive with conversations about whether Mayor Daley’s departure may create an opportunity to rebuild Meigs Field,” said Chris Dancy, spokesman for the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association.
There have been precisely two Tweets using the “reopenMeigs” hashtag in the past 24 hours, and five using the “Meigs” hashtag, and one of those was against reopening the airport. Most of the Twitter chatter yesterday was posted by one person who said he was working on a story about the topic, and who often Tweets about flight simulator programs. Meigs was the first airport on MS Flight before Daley carved those infamous X’s in its runway. Microsoft stopped including Meigs in the software and a few computer flight junkies were enraged.
The person quoted in the Tribune story gushing over all this newly invisible enthusiasm flaks for a group that published an article today about the possibility of reopening the field…
Although the airport was closed and turned into a park, AOPA President Craig Fuller has pledged to seek every opportunity to bring back Meigs Field.
“More than seven years have passed since Chicago’s Meigs Field was bulldozed under cover of darkness, but the airport has not been forgotten,” Fuller said. “Grassroots support for Meigs is still alive and many in the aviation community view Mayor Richard Daley’s decision not to run for re-election as a hopeful sign that the field could be restored.
Yeah. The field will be restored. They’re gonna kill off a lakefront park to rebuild an airport for state workers, millionaires and a handful of flight sim geeks when the city has no money. And people are clamoring for it because some pilots association flak says the Interwebtubes are just alive with activity, even though they’re not.
Millennium Park seems like the obvious choice. It hasn’t been around long enough for a name change to rile traditionalists and it certainly has Daley’s stamp. But let’s stretch our minds:
What about the Kennedy Expressway? It was re-named for the slain president in a fit of post-assassination sentimentality, but JFK’s connection to Chicago wasn’t so significant that it belongs forever on such a major thoroughfare?
Lake Shore Drive? Midway Airport? Your ideas, please.
* Statewide GOP candidates Judy Baar Topinka, Bill Brady and Dan Rutherford…
The person posting the funniest comment “wins” a cocktail hour with me in the Chicago or Springfield areas. I might even expand that geography if I know someone in your neck of the woods. I’m buying. You don’t have to drink to be eligible, but it helps.
Jeremy Schroeder, executive director of the Illinois Coalition to Abolish the Death Penalty, said public opinion on sentencing convicts to death is changing, and the state’s continued moratorium on the punishment, originally placed by former Gov. George Ryan in 2000 after innocent men were found on death row, shows the system isn’t working.
“After 10 years of a moratorium, we just have to admit, we can’t fix it,” Schroeder said.
A poll taken by the coalition in the spring shows 60 percent of Illinois voters would accept alternative sentences for criminals other than death, Schroeder said. He noted the greatest support is in the Chicago area, but a significant number of voters downstate also agree. The poll was taken by Lake Research Partners in Washington, D.C., and based on a telephone survey of 400 registered voters, with a margin of error at 4.9 percent.
Twenty men have been exonerated from death row after they were found to be wrongfully convicted, but prosecutors statewide continue to seek the death penalty in some cases at a cost of roughly $20 million annually, Schroeder said.
* The Question: Should Illinois abolish the death penalty? Explain.
* 54 percent favoring and 37 percent opposed is not a “slim” majority, but here’s the Tribune’s new poll on whether Rod Blagojevich should be retried…
A slim majority statewide, 54 percent, agreed with Fitzgerald’s decision [to retry Blagojevich], while 37 percent disagreed. Another 10 percent had no opinion in the survey of 600 registered Illinois voters conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 1. The error margin was 4 percentage points.
More interesting numbers…
In Chicago, 35 percent of voters favored retrial and 51 percent opposed it. But 54 percent of those in the Cook County suburbs and 57 percent of those in the collar counties agreed with the notion that Blagojevich should be retried, the survey found. […]
By a slight margin, voters who identified themselves as Democrats were more inclined to disagree with the decision to retry Blagojevich, the survey found. On the other hand, more than 7 out of 10 Republican voters surveyed said they backed a retrial.
There was also a stark difference between white and black voters on the issue. White voters were for a retrial by a wide margin: 60 percent to 31 percent. The position of black voters was almost the reverse: 63 percent against a retrial and 25 percent in favor.
The takeaway: US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is gonna have to present a far better case next time if he wants to convict this clown with that jury pool.
The federal judge handling Rod Blagojevich’s case said [yesterday] afternoon that after the former governor’s retrial, he will not release jurors’ names immediately after the verdict.
Instead, he plans to wait 24 hours after a verdict is in to make the names public, he said.
“That’s based on the experience some jurors had with the prompt release,” U.S. District Judge James Zagel said.
He gave the media until Nov. 1 to file any objections (as they did the last time around) disputing his closure of the names. The new trial is expected to begin early next year.
This is the same judge that advised jurors to call 911 if they didn’t like reporters’ questions.
Also at Wednesday’s hearing, Zagel set several deadlines for attorneys. Prosecutors will have to notify him by Nov. 15 about any major expansion of the case - though the judge said that wouldn’t include notice about new witnesses the government many want to call.
Zagel also said he expected the retrial to take no longer than 2 1 / 2 months. The first trial initially was expected to last more than four months, but ended up running about 2 1 / 2 .
One reason a second trial could be expected to take less time is that Blagojevich now is the lone defendant. Last month, prosecutors dropped a bombshell by dismissing all charges against the ex-governor’s co-defendant, his brother Robert Blagojevich.
The states where the Democratic dropoff is 10 points or more- Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maine, and North Carolina- all have incredibly unpopular Democratic Governors who aren’t that strong even within their own parties. Obama’s still pretty solid in those states at least within his own party, but a sense that their party’s current leaders at the state level have not gotten the job done could be making Democrats less inclined to get out to the polls.
* Meanwhile,Rasmussen has a new poll out and the pollster finally added the Green Party nominee to the mix. That may have jumbled the results a bit. Ras still hasn’t added the Libertarian Party candidate, however, so we don’t yet have an accurate picture of the race. Numbers in brackets are from previous Rasmussen polls…
The Giannoulias campaign points out that the Republican Rasmussen may be “agenda setting” again. Their polls in recent days haven’t matched up well with others, including Barbara Boxer (where Rasmussen had the Republican up and the Democrat down, contradicting the CNN/TIME poll) and Jack Conway (where Rasmussen had the Republican way up and CNN/TIME had it tied).
If leaners are not included, Kirk has 37% support to Giannoulias’ 34% and Jones’ 12%, suggesting as is often the case that support moves away from third party candidates to one of the major party nominees as Election Day approaches. In the previous survey, Giannoulias captured 42% of the vote to Kirk’s 40% when voters were asked their initial preference.
Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Kirk voters say they are already certain how they will vote in November, as do 53% of Giannoulias’ supporters and 40% of those who are backing Jones. […]
Eighty-two percent (82%) of GOP voters favor Kirk, a fifth-term U.S. congressman, while just 69% of Democrats support Giannoulias, currently the state’s elected treasurer. Green draws single-digit support from voters in both major parties and 13% of those who are not affiliated with either the Democrats or the Republicans. Kirk leads Giannoulias by more than two-to-one among these unaffiliated voters.
Giannoulias is viewed favorably by 42% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 44%.
For Kirk, favorables are 45%, and unfavorables are 39%.
Twenty-six percent (26%) have a favorable opinion of Jones, an African-American journalist, while 30% regard him unfavorably. But 44% don’t know enough about the Green Party candidate to venture any opinion of him.
Only eight percent (8%) of Illinois voters rate the U.S. economy as good, while 56% of voters in President Obama’s home state describe the economy as poor. Twenty-six percent (26%) say the economy is getting better, but 46% believe it is getting worse.
Fifty-three percent (53%) approve of the president’s job performance, while 45% disapprove. Obama’s job approval ratings in Illinois havenot unchanged for months and are higher than the numbers he earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
* Methodology…
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on September 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
* Republican Congressman Mark Kirk told the media yesterday that he was up with a new positive ad. As I told you yesterday, Alexi Giannoulias’ campaign thought the positive spot was a “head fake,” and that Kirk would go negative. They appear to have been right. Watch the “real” Kirk ad…
* We Ask America polled Chicago last night and found Rahm Emanuel leading the pack, with Sheriff Tom Dart and Congressmen Jesse Jackson, Jr. and Luis Guitierrez bunched up in the race for second place. Click the pic for a larger image…
Now for the caveats. I used this robo-poll firm a couple of years ago and had some concerns about response rates among African-Americans and Latinos. They have been trying harder since then, but Latinos are underrepresented in this poll by more than half.
Some names are obviously missing, but this is still an interesting mix. We’re looking at name recognition here. That will change if other lesser known candidates can raise the bucks.
Also, if you want to see how poorly the Daley name is faring these days, just look at Bill Daley’s numbers. Not great.
As we pull the trigger on this poll, we’ve found 40+ possible candidates mentioned in published reports, with more queuing up for consideration. We wanted to narrow it down to ten (because there’s only ten digits on a phone for an automated poll), so we added up the articles and chose the ten who were mentioned in the most clippings–not exactly as precise our usual polls…but what the heck. This is for fun.
* Roeder: Daley exit tough for biz: Unable to write checks toward another Daley victory, business executives will take their time and survey the field. Many will sit out a probably contentious election, or get involved only if the field is narrowed to two for an April runoff. “There is no up side to jumping in this early,” said Guy Chipparoni, president of the public relations firm Res Publica Group, which counsels clients on business and public policy.
* Reardon: Mayor’s leaving us high and dry: I’m sorry, Mayor Richard Daley. You may be tired. You may want to spend more time with your wife. I’m sure you know a lot more than I do about how bruising a re-election race could be next year and about what federal investigators may have found in their prying into your City Hall. But walking away from your fifth floor office right now, saying, “It’s time,” is just wrong. You’re abandoning the people of Chicago to the reality of democracy — but without the skills of democracy.
One day after announcing his decision not to seek a seventh term, Daley lashed out at the code of silence that has prevented police from solving the July 18 murder of Chicago Police Officer Michael Bailey.
It happened during a City Council debate on a resolution honoring Bailey, the third Chicago Police officer killed during a two-month period.
The Bailey murder remains unsolved, despite reward money topping $130,000.
The city had five more homicides through the end of August than the year-earlier period, bringing the total number to 313. But that is still lower than the 338 homicides recorded through the end of August 2008. […]
Through August, robberies dropped by 14.1 percent, criminal sexual assaults dropped by 10.1 percent and aggravated batteries dropped by 6.1 percent.
“These numbers are unacceptable until they’re zero,” Assistant Superintendent James Jackson said at a news conference Friday.
Still, Chicago has remained a more violent place than New York or Los Angeles based on the ratio of crime to population. The mayor could never shake the image of Chicago as a haven for gangsters going back to the days of Al Capone. That image may have been one reason why Chicago lost its bid to host the Olympics in 2016 — even though winner Rio de Janeiro is far more harrowing in some areas.
“Since the circuit clerk has signed the taxpayers up to spend tax dollars on private attorneys for her on the premise that she’s suing the taxpayers, let’s get on with it so we can better understand how to resolve this year-end budget dilemma,” McConnaughay said.
The comment came after yet another county board committee rejected Seyller’s request for a midyear, $555,000 cash infusion for her budget. The need for more money stems from the hiring of 14 employees over the past two years. Some of those hires replace employees who left. Others were new staff positions.
