* 10:19 pm -Cook County has 203 precincts left to count. They’ve tallied 1,734 out of 1,937. Chicago has counted 2,330 out of 2,570 precincts, meaning there are still 240 precincts left to count there.
According to the AP, there are 1,377 precincts left to count in Illinois. That means about a third of those precincts are in either overtly hostile or somewhat hostile Brady territory. Quinn is leading by just 35,988 votes.
By the way, DuPage has just 24 precincts left to tally.
You can take a look at where the counties are in their counting by clicking here.
* 10:34 pm - Check out CNN’s county map of the governor’s race. Click the pic for the interactive version…
Bill Brady is stomping the tar outta Pat Quinn in traditionally Democratic Rock Island, Macon and Madison counties. Quinn is winning St. Clair, Jackson and Alexander. And Cook, of course.
If Quinn wins this, it’s all due to the Cook/Chicago ground game.
* Gov. Pat Quinn’s lead is now less than 13,000 votes. There are just 138 precincts left to count in Cook and 170 in Chicago. 933 are left statewide.
* 10:45 - With 93 percent of the state counted, Quinn is leading by 19,134.
* I’m only going to say this once. David Orr better not go to bed early tonight.
* 10:53 pm -CNN now has the governor’s race margin at 17,139 for Quinn. That’s with 94 percent of the vote tallied.
* 10:55 pm - Rep. David Miller has conceded to Judy Baar Topinka.
* 10:57 pm - Republican Mark Kirk’s lead is now 1,662,617 to 1,582,429 - an 80K+ margin.
* 11:00 pm - Quinn’s lead is now down to 11,967.
* 11:03 pm - And now Quinn is down to a 10,280 vote lead.
* 11:06 pm - Keep in mind that absentee votes are still coming in by the droves. Many of those are Democratic absentees because the coordinated campaign screwed up and sent its mailers so late. Those late absentees won’t be counted tonight. Some weren’t even received by today. If Quinn does somehow lose this lead, he could still regain it later in the week.
* 11:10 pm - Quinn is now down to a lead of just 8,807 votes.
* 11:13 pm - Some close congressional races…
U.S. House - District 8 - General
Illinois - 492 of 503 Precincts Reporting - 98%
Walsh , Joe GOP 95,576 49%
Bean , Melissa (i) Dem 94,727 48%
Scheurer , Bill Grn 6,359 3%
U.S. House - District 10 - General
Illinois - 478 of 511 Precincts Reporting - 94%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Dold , Robert GOP 101,805 51%
Seals , Daniel Dem 97,768 49%
*** 11:15 pm *** My intern Barton Lorimor just told me that NBC, via the AP, has just declared Mark Kirk the winner of the US Senate race. From the AP…
Republican Mark Kirk has captured the Senate seat once held by the president defeating Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.
*** 11:17 pm *** WGN is reporting that Giannoulias will concede soon.
* Meanwhile, Gov. Quinn is ahead of Bill Brady by 10,516 votes.
*** 11:22 pm *** Cook County still hasn’t counted 107 precincts. Chicago hasn’t counted 92. There are 454 precincts out there. So, slightly less than half are from Quinn Country. And don’t forget the late absentees.
* 11:27 pm - Quinn’s lead is now down to 4,372 votes.
* 11:28 pm - I told you that Kilbride was winning his retention race, but I didn’t tell you he won. Oops.
* 11:30 pm - OK, Quinn’s lead is now back up to 11,148.
* 11:49 pm - Quinn’s margin is now 11,291.
* 11:55 pm - OK, now Quinn’s at 8,155.
*** 12:06 am *** Bill Brady just said the election won’t be decided tonight, so that’s it for him.
*** 12:10 am *** The AP has declared Republican Bob Dold the winner in the 10th CD.
November 03, 2010 - 01:30AM ET
State House - District 22 - General
Illinois - 43 of 87 Precincts Reporting - 49%
Madigan , Michael (i) Dem 8,294 81%
Ryan , Patrick GOP 1,889 19%
Notice that less than half the precincts are reported as counted. But the city and the county both have MJM’s district as completely counted.
So, either somebody forgot to update a single district. Or, the AP isn’t including those MJM district totals in their grand totals. I strongly suspect it’s the former, not the latter. But one never knows.
Independent Forrest Claypool conceded to Democrat Joe Berrios tonight in the hard-fought contest for Cook County assessor, Claypool’s campaign manager said.
Berrios had about 46 percent to 32 percent for Claypool with about 75 percenut of the vote in.
Claypool led in the suburbs, but Republican Sharon Strobeck-Eckersall was doing well enough as an alternative to Berrios to erode Claypool’s vote count. About 64 percent of the overall vote had been counted.
Meanwhile, in an unexpected development, Democrat Brendan Houlihan was trailing Republican Republican Dan Patlak in a race for the county’s tax appeals board that Berrios now sits on. Houlihan currently holds the post in the mostly suburban district, one of three on the board.
* 9:24 pm - Somebody needs to call this one, so I will. Topinka wins…
Comptroller - General
Illinois - 6850 of 11209 Precincts Reporting - 61%
Baar Topinka , Judy GOP 1,070,958 51%
Miller , David Dem 895,645 43%
Schafer , Erika Grn 67,637 3%
Fox , Julie Lib 67,024 3%
Amendment - Recall of Governor - Ballot Issue
Illinois - 6899 of 11209 Precincts Reporting - 62%
Yes 1,277,366 66%
No 650,206 34%
* With 50 percent of the vote in, Supreme Court Chief Justice Tom Kilbride is at 66 percent in his retention race. He needs 60 to be retained.
* A gaggle of federal judges forced Illinois to hold a special election to replace Roland Burris, but if this thing stays as close as it is now, the outcome might not be decided for weeks. So that extra cost will be for naught. But, hey, the lawyers who sued won. Hooray.
U.S. Rep. Phil Hare’s spokesman says the congressman has accepted he will lose the election. Hare is expected to make his concession speech in the next few minutes.
* 9:47 pm - It’s gonna be tough to close this gap…
* 9:52 pm - Since a lot of the uncounted ballots are Downstate, this one looks good for Rutherford…
Treasurer - General
Illinois - 8636 of 11209 Precincts Reporting - 77%
Rutherford , Dan GOP 1,329,272 49%
Kelly , Robin Dem 1,240,257 46%
Summers , Scott Grn 86,841 3%
Pauly , James Lib 50,540 2%
* 9:56 pm - Republican Randy Hultgren has just declared victory…
Going forward, I want to reaffirm my commitment and vow to you and the people of the 14th Congressional District that this is your seat, and you’re my boss. I look forward to working for you. I will listen to you. And when you express your opinion and counsel and make your voice heard, I won’t just hear, I’ll listen. Public service is a sacred trust, and I will always expect to be held accountable.
With about 80,000 votes counted in Kane County, Incumbent U.S. Rep. Bill Foster, D-14th, is trailing Republican challenger Randy Hultgren by more than 5,000 votes.
And with 52 percent of precincts reporting in the entire district, Foster is trailing about 11,000 votes.
But Foster spokeswoman Shannon O’Brien is still optimistic given the campaign’s internal polling.
Since they’re evenly divided between the genders, those numbers mean Pat Quinn is up by 2.5 points over Bill Brady. Wow. [Corrected stupid math error]
* On to the Senate…
That would mean Kirk up by half a point, but there’s rounding in there, so it’s essentially tied. [Corrected stupid math error]
* Vote by region, governor…
Looks like Quinn just barely hit his targets.
* Vote by region, Senate…
* Keep in mind that this is a poll. It’s a big poll, but it’s still a poll. So both election results are well within the margin of error. There’s no guarantee of a Quinn win just yet.
*** 8:04 pm *** From the Chicago elections board…
We’re seeing 50.36% turnout in the City of Chicago from the first 919 precincts of the City’s 2,570 precincts that now have unofficial totals.
The unofficial totals we report tonight represent Election Day voting, Early Voting, Grace Period Voting and Absentee ballots received through Saturday. Absentee ballots received more recently (Monday, Tuesday, etc.) will be added in supplemental counts to be conducted later this week.
By the time later-arriving absentee ballots, provisionals and other ballots arrive and are counted, the City turnout number is likely to move closer to 51-52%.
*** 8:16 pm *** With slightly over half the precincts reporting, Tony Peraica is losing badly…
Tony Peraica (REP) 39.38% 12,153
Jeffrey R. Tobolski (DEM) 53.11% 16,389
Alejandro Reyes (GRN) 7.51% 2,318
There’s only one precinct in the city and it hasn’t reported yet.
*** 8:19 pm *** With over half the vote counted, Joe Berrios has the lead…
*** 8:24 pm *** With half the vote in, Republican Bob Dold is leading Dan Seals…
* Let’s take a look at some congressional races. Congressman Phil Hare is behind…
55% of precincts reporting
Updated 9:02 p.m.
Schilling (R) 51,212 53.0%
Hare (D) 41,093 42.5%
Davis (G) 4,363 4.5%
*** UPDATE 1 *** You can find Illinois exit polling data by clicking here when the polls close at 7.
*** UPDATE 2 *** The White House is telling people that Drudge’s US Senate result is wrong. They claim it’s “in the margin.” Drudge has Kirk up by 6. I’ve taken down his result while I check.
*** UPDATE 3 *** OK, from what I can gather, Drudge was using the first round of exit polls. The second round, combined with the first round, shows Kirk up by 3. We’re now waiting on Round 3.
*** UPDATE 4 *** More reason to distrust even that second round. From a commenter…
The early votes and mail votes will be counted after today’s votes, which will skew any such exit polling numbers
Keep in mind that we have two weekend polls showing that the Democrats did better with people who’ve already voted.
[ *** End Of Updates *** ]
* Normal turnout everywhere? So says the state board…
“Most of it seems to be what we’ve expected,’’ says Rupert Borgsmiller of the Illinois State Board of Elections. “We haven’t heard of any overwhelming numbers anywhere. You certainly can’t blame it on the weather.” […]
In the Metro East, election officials are predicting their normal off-year turnouts. Madison County Clerk Mark Von Nida said absentee and early voting figures as of Monday indicated the county will about 40 percent (or about 80,000 votes), which is considered normal for an off-year election.
* If Chicago and Cook County have a normal turnout and aren’t depressed by the national mood, it could be because of people like this…
All those nasty TV ads beating up on Democrats and the unfavorable news coverage of the tea partiers was bound to keep them motivated.
About a third say their household suffered a job loss in the past two years, but that didn’t give a clear direction to their voting. They divided over which party to support in Tuesday’s House races.
About four in 10 say they are worse off financially than they were two years ago. More than 80 percent said they were worried about the direction of the economy over the next year.
Only about a quarter of voters in Tuesday’s House races blamed Obama for the nation’s economic troubles. But about half think Obama’s policies will hurt the country.
About four out of 10 voters said they support the tea party movement, and they overwhelmingly voted Republican.
You’re going to start to see them. A lot of them. Here in Studio 47 at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York, I’m looking at all of them right now, and I can tell you that there is NOT much you can say about the major questions of the night based on the data we have now. That’s because, for the most part, the third wave of numbers, which incorporates a new tranche of voters, hasn’t been processed. Do not believe your eyes… yet. This blog will neither leak nor refer to exit polls until polls in states are closed.
* Attorney General Lisa Madigan sent out an advisory to local election authorities today warning them to follow the law. Apparently, the AG’s office was worried that people would bring their completed absentee ballots to the polls (remember that problem with the Democrats’ coordinated committee mailing out the ballot apps late?) or don’t bring their ballots ballots and could be told that they need to vote with a provisional ballot. State law says they can vote with their completed absentees, and if they don’t have one they can sign an affidavit and vote like everybody else. Click here to read Madigan’s letter.
I asked the AG’s office for more information about how widespread this problem is. They said they had a handful of calls, did the research and decided to put out an advisory.
Nicely, um, coordinated.
* A Kane County blogger tried to vote without a photo ID today and the polling judges insisted he needed one. After a long rigmarole, he was finally allowed to vote, but claims that this is happening in more than just his precinct…
Foster campaign was sending an attorney over to that polling place. I advised them that they just might have a county-wide problem, since there was general agreement at that polling place that they had all been trained in this fictitious new federal law.
They thanked me, called me back again to say they had a subsequent complaint of the same problem from another polling place, also in Kane County, but in another community.
President Obama was interviewed on Chicago hip hop station WGCI Tuesday morning, urging young voters to get out to the polls.
In an interview with WGCI’s Loni Swain, Obama explained how important Tuesday’s election was to him, and how it will effect the lives of young people in Chicago and beyond.
“The truth of the matter is that even though we had 30,000 people come to the [Chicago] rally, there are a lot of folks out there who still haven’t got the message that this is a really important election,” Obama said. “Making sure that folks have health care when they need it, making sure that young people are able to get college scholarships, all those things that we’ve worked on so hard for the last couple years are at stake, and the key is going to be everybody turning out to vote.”
Read the Quincy Herald-Whig endorsement in the governor’s race. It’s well researched, serious, dispassionate. The editorialist basically praises the job Gov. Pat Quinn did under awful circumstances, eviscerates Brady’s vague, hollow “plans,” notes disagreement with his positions on social issues, then shrugs and says:
Brady is being endorsed because we cannot change the direction of this state without a change in leadership.
And this is what I predict at least a plurality if not a majority of voters are going to tell us today: They’re not happy with the way Illinois’ ship of state is listing and heading for the rocks, so it’s time to give someone else a chance to grab the helm.
* What? No big jobs announcement tomorrow? Hmmm…
* Here’s your opportunity to give us your final precinct reports. What’s going on out there? Some of us are in bubbles and need to know. Thanks much for all you do!
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City turnout was 49.75% in 2006. This time, turnout seems to be particularly good on the North Side lakefront and in scattered areas of the South Side, like the 8th Ward, but weak on the West Side.
In suburban Cook County, Clerk David Orr and aides are saying they, too, look like they’ll hit the 50% mark and perhaps go a bit higher.
House GOP Leader Tom Cross reported a good turnout Downstate, even perhaps “historic high” levels in Central Illinois, the backyard of GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady.
Other Republican sources said turnout in two collar county areas is “about average.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** The Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights has a GOTV program and is tracking their results. I asked for an update. Here it is…
Hi Rich. Our goal is to increase turnout 3% over 2006 levels in our targeted precincts. We are on track in some of the Chicago Latino areas and in the Asian / mixed areas, and light in some of the city Latino areas. We are light in Aurora, on track in the SW suburban Arab areas, and very heavy in the mixed Muslim / white parts of Dupage we are working in. Overall not horrible news for the Dems, but not good news either. I was reading the blog and this does not clear up the turnout mystery, but it confirms some of what is being stated.
Hope this is helpful. By the way, we will have made close to 500,000 live calls when all of this is done, between Illinois Immigrant Action and ICIRR. I don’t know how many got answered (will eventually have a report) but it looks from your blog that this puts us up pretty high in terms of people doing actual real work. We have GOTV in 17 communities.
“We’re expecting an average turnout,” White said of today’s vote. “It’s good. It’ll be a little bit above 50 percent.”
White said Chicago and Cook County are projecting a turnout of about 53 percent at mid-day. White said turnout also is higher in some downstate areas, including Sangamon County, where Springfield is located.
* I just spoke with Jim Allen at the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners.
“Right now,” Allen said. “it looks like we’re heading into the low 50s” for city turnout.
However, Allen added a huge caveat. “The big question is whether we’re heading into an evening rush.” The city hasn’t had an evening voter rush in the last two elections, the 2010 primary and the 2008 general. The city board was a bit redfaced two years ago when they declared morning turnout indicated an 80 percent rate, but the lack of an evening rush led to a 71.5 percent turnout. And the ‘08 primary’s evening rush wasn’t that significant, either, Allen said.
There are a lot of factors at play here. Grace period voting, early voting, absentee voting, people don’t have jobs or they have jobs that they can’t leave, etc.
If history repeats itself and there’s no evening rush, Allen says the city is looking at “barely” 50 percent, or maybe even 49 percent.
As noted below, most prognosticators believe that Pat Quinn and Alexi Giannoulias need at least a 50 percent turnout in the city.
Voter turnout at some precincts in the South Side neighborhood of Englewood appears down considerably from the presidential election two years ago.
You can’t compare presidential elections to off-year elections. Sheesh. However, this next graf is interesting…
Tyrone Blanton, a poll worker at the 21st precinct in the 3rd Ward, said 308 of the 341 registered voters turned out during the election that put President Barack Obama in office. But today, as of 1 p.m., only 67 people had cast ballots.
That’s low. Very low.
Yet, Toni Preckwinkle’s people are projecting a city/county turnout akin to 2006, which is what the Democrats need. As a good friend of mine just said when we were discussing all the conflicting turnout reports…
God I hate election day
Heh.
* I think WLS Radio is trying to be Drudge bait. Their stories and, especially, their headlines lately are just off the wall. Check out their latest headline…
Many problems reported at polls, precincts opening late
There have been scattered problems reported this morning. The Cook County Clerk’s Office says five precincts did not open on time, so the Clerk will be asking a judge to allow them to stay open past 7 tonight. Three of those late opening precincts are in Proviso Township in the Western suburbs and two in Northfield Township in the Northern suburbs.
“Scattered” problems in a few suburban precincts ain’t “many” problems.
* Tell us more about your precincts, towns, etc. How’s it going out there? We’ve had the best, most widespread field reports in comments than you’ll find anywhere else. Keep them coming!
Just about every strategist I’ve spoken with says that Chicagoans, particularly African-Americans, have to turn out [at least 50 percent] for Democrats Alexi Giannoulias and, particularly, Gov. Pat Quinn to have a shot against Republicans Mark Kirk and Bill Brady in the U.S. Senate and governor races, respectively.
A 50% turnout would be about 660,000 voters. The Chicago Board of Elections traditionally gives turnout projections during the day, so look to see what they report. And, of course, they’ll be putting totals on the board’s website. […]
The [58th House District has] a Democratic incumbent, Karen May. The [17th House District] is an open seat now held by Republican Beth Coulson, who gave up her job to stage an unsuccessful race for Congress.
If Republicans are serious about knocking out House Speaker Michael Madigan, they almost certainly have to hang onto the 17th while taking a dozen other seats. And if they snag the 58th, a Republican rout likely is under way.
The Cook County Clerk’s Office should provide the best up-to-the-minute vote totals in the 17th, with Cook and the Lake County Clerk’s Office covering the 58th.
If the HGOPs take out May, this thing is over. If they take out Biss, it’s gonna be close.
…Adding… I posted this in comments…
Chicago turnout four years ago was 49.25 percent. The state as a whole averaged 41.4 percent.
The city’s turnout in 2002 was 53.1 percent. Statewide average was 40.2 percent.
[Mark Kirk] said he had spoken with officials in New Trier who said turnout “was extremely heavy,” and had heard that turnout in parts of Chicago wasn’t as strong.
Willard Helander, the Lake County Clerk, told PI this morning that the polls in her county were “not crazy, but busy.” She said it was “extremely probable” that turnout would be “higher than 52 percent.” One of the reasons: voter referendums, such as the historic effort to recall Buffalo Grove Trustee Lisa Stone. Over in Kane County, Clerk John Cunningham said he expected roughly 90,000 and 100,000 of the 213,000 eligible voters in his county to cast a ballot by day’s end.
Chicago and Cook County election officials said they are continuing to receive a flood of absentee ballots, some delivered by mail this morning.
“We still have thousands of them coming in,” said Courtney Greve, a spokeswoman for Cook County Clerk David Orr. “We received 4,500 (Monday).”
Greve did not have an estimate for how many total absentee ballots would be cast in suburban Cook County. Through Monday, the number stood at 14,000. […]
In Chicago, about 20,000 absentee ballots had been cast so far, said Langdon Neal, executive director of the board, who said hundreds more arrived by mail this morning. Absentee ballots had to be postmarked by Monday to be tallied in the election.
A lot more absentee ballots are still out there. Here are the IMA numbers for absentee requests for the city and the county…
In Illinois, all eyes on Obama’s former Senate seat
All eyes? If you ask the city’s editors, all eyes are on Mayor Daley’s job.
* Speaking of the city, Rahm sends out an e-mail and Politico covers it…
Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel used a new list of supporters from his recently launched Chicago mayoral campaign to help Democratic Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias get out the vote Tuesday.
Emanuel, once the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, wrote in an e-mail blast that Chicago voters need to show up at the polls to ensure Republicans “don’t derail the president’s agenda.
Confident Gov. Quinn votes, says he has no regrets
Some of us do.
* The Southern Illinoisan sold an unusual ad to Bill Brady’s campaign yesterday. The entire front page of the newspaper’s website was wrapped with a Brady campaign message. Click the pic for a larger image…
My brother asked…
What if a local news channel had a campaign graphic surrounding the newscast the night before elections?
Don’t give ‘em any ideas, man.
* One 47th Ward denizen used his/her yard sign collection to frighten the kids but good on Halloween…
* Make sure to tell us what’s going on in your precinct.
Statement from Illinois State Sen. Antonio Munoz regarding the condition of his brother Martin, who was hit by a vehicle Tuesday morning.
“I want to thank everyone for calling and texting and sending along their thoughts and prayers,” said Munoz.
His brother Martin was struck by a vehicle and injured Tuesday morning as he walked to a local polling place. Martin Munoz, 40, suffered a broken leg and head lacerations. His injuries required surgery Tuesday to put screws and a rod in his leg.
“He’s out of surgery and doing very well,” Munoz said, again thanking well wishers.
The brother of a state senator was seriously injured this morning when he was struck by a hit-and-run driver who sped through an intersection outside a South Side polling station, officials and witnesses said.
Martin Munoz, 40, the brother of State Sen. Antonio Munoz, (D-Chicago), was taken to Mt. Sinai Hospital, where he was undergoing surgery.
John Patterson, acting as spokesman for the senator, said Martin Munoz suffered head lacerations and serious leg injuries but was conscious after the accident. He had been on his way to vote, he added. […]
The accident happened just before 6 a.m. outside Balzekas Motor Sales, 4030 S. Archer Ave., where a polling location was being set up, said Robert Balzekas, an employee of the Brighton Park neighborhood dealership. It had not yet opened to voters.
Balzekas said Munoz was crossing Archer when a 1994 or 1995 Nissan barreled down the diagonal street heading southeast. He said the car was traveling between 30 and 40 mph when it struck Munoz.
Arthur “Ron” Swanson, 84, a former Republican state senator and lobbyist whose insider deals played a key role in the conviction of former Illinois Gov. George Ryan, died of kidney failure Saturday, Oct. 30, in his Homer Glen home, said his son, Ronald Jr.
Mr. Swanson, who served as state senator from 1963 to 1971, was sentenced in July 2006 to eight months of home confinement for lying to a grand jury when he claimed to have performed work as part of a $180,000 lobbying assignment at McCormick Place arranged by Ryan.
Although the prosecution recommended that Mr. Swanson be sentenced to prison, the judge cited his elderly age and health problems, saying prison would have been “cruel and unusual punishment.” He was 80 at the time.
* The Question: Have you changed your mind on any of your election day predictions? Explain now or forever hold your peace. Comments will be closed at 7 o’clock.
Candidates across Illinois are trying to make the most of their last day before Tuesday’s election. But a leading contender in a tight Cook County race had to step off the campaign trail for a few hours.
Assessor candidate Forrest Claypool said his “emergency” began last night after Halloween trick-or-treating. “I made the mistake of stealing my 9-year-old daughter’s Tootsie Roll,” he said. “It was like a hydraulic lift on my cavity filling, and just pulled it right out.”
Before he knew it, Claypool was in a Hyde Park dentist’s chair. The repair on Tooth No. 18 forced Claypool to cancel a Monday afternoon appearance at Manny’s Deli, a frequent stop for politicians before Election Day. He hoped the Novocain would wear off in time to meet rush-hour commuters at the Roosevelt stop of CTA’s Red Line.
* Tony Peraica has ruined it for everybody. From a press release…
At approximately 11:30 PM last night, an automobile registered in Maryland, was involved in the alleged theft of Joe Walsh for Congress campaign signs in Hainesville, Illinois. The theft occurred at the intersection of Illinois Route 120 and Illinois Route 134.
Steve Tucker, a volunteer in the Joe Walsh for Congress campaign, and another volunteer, were sitting in a car at the 7-11 gas station across the street, and observed the passenger of a car with Maryland License Plate (8 MD 1526) remove three Joe Walsh for Congress campaign signs from the shoulder of the road and replace them with campaign signs for Melissa Bean.
The getaway car was registered with a specialty license plate issued by the State of Maryland for the Maryland Democratic Party.
*** UPDATE *** I didn’t even see Walsh’s video link. Thanks to a commenter for pointing it out. First of all, the Walsh video doesn’t show the alleged operative actually touching the sign. At the very beginning she appears to be standing next to a Bean sign. And lastly, the Walsh sign appears to be posted in a public right of way, which is illegal. Is not stealing or even touching an illegally posted sign illegal? No. Watch it for yourself…
Thank you for putting up with my endless stream of emails.
No. Thank YOU for your endless streams of mob banker references.
* A new record! From the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform…
Supreme Court Chief Justice Tom Kilbride’s retention election has set a record as the most expensive retention election in the state’s history and the second most expensive in our nation’s history. Kilbride’s committee and his opponents have raised more than $3.2 million. The previous Illinois record for a retention race was in the low six figures. Kilbride had $2.6 million compared to nearly $700,000 for his opponents. Nearly $1.5 million of Kilbride’s money came from the Democratic Party of Illinois. The opposition JUSTPAC is the political committee of the Illinois Civil Justice League, which has the financial support of insurance companies and health care providers who support limits on medical malpractice and other personal injury lawsuits.
* From a buddy in Decatur…
* Today’s front page…
Yep. Even on election day, they have to get something in there about the mayor’s race.
Here’s a more interesting headline: Meeks never did endorse Pat Quinn.
…Adding… People, don’t be silly. If you see vote fraud, call the attorney general, the state’s attorney, the FBI. Don’t call WLS Radio. What’re they gonna do? Send Roe over to heckle? Sheesh.
* WLS Radio claimed today that Gov. Pat Quinn “plays the terrorist card on election eve.” Here’s the quote they’re using…
“I think we want to tell the terrorists that Democracy is alive and well in Illinois, the Land of Lincoln, government of the people. The best way for the people to speak is at the ballot box,” Quinn said.
The Quinn campaign’s response…
The Governor isn’t ‘playing’ any card. In response to Friday’s events, he’s also spoken about the necessity of people turning out to vote to preserve our robust democracy. Voting is all about making your voice heard. He’s being asked about it by reporters and by voters along the campaign trail.
It sounds to me like Quinn was asked about terrorism and responded. We’ll see. That’s a horrible headline on the day before the election, however.
* Speaking of Quinn, his vanquished primary opponent Dan Hynes did a robocall for the governor. According to the campaign, this is going out to Hynes’ primary supporters…
* Roe Conn had Tony Peraica and his Democratic opponent McCook Mayor Jeff Tobolski on his show today to talk about Peraica’s Saturday night arrest. You can go to their site to listen or click the image below…
* The Alexi Giannoulias campaign just did something a bit different. It has begun sending Freedom of Information Act Requests to county clerks. Read the campaign’s Champaign County request by clicking here. I followed up with an e-mail to Champaign County Clerk Mark Shelden, asking him whether he’d ever seen something like this before. Here is Clerk Shelden’s response…
Never been done before in my 13 years.
A little more background. Section 302 of HAVA requires that provisionals be confidential. I believe that request is not legal.
The rest is very interesting. In a discovery recount, the requester can ask for these items for 25% of all precincts. I’ve often wondered what would happen should someone FOIA it. Now we’re finding out. A very strong argument can be made that the section of the election code regarding discovery recounts trumps FOIA.
None of the clerks are going to deal with this pre election. And I’m sure we’re all hoping, more than even before, that a 2-3 point win on either side makes the issue go away.
.“I don’t interpret it very kindly. I know what our own polls show, and I think we’re surging. I’ve seen that, not just in our own poll, but three or four others. I think this past week, we’ve surged every day,” the governor told reporters this morning at Midway Airport.
* And a big, big roundup…
* US mid-term elections: A campaign in the shadow of terror
Mind you, requests aren’t the same as actual absentee votes. They define independents as people who didn’t vote in the primary or who have bounced around in the past three primaries. The county-by-county numbers are here.
This is a far better showing for Republicans than in the past. And they’ll probably get the majority of those independents as well.
[I misunderstood the IMA e-mail and had to rewrite the above section. The numbers the IMA gave me today are the grand totals.]
The record for money raised by candidates for governor in an Illinois election has been shattered by 2010 candidates. […]
Republican Bill Brady tops the chart at $15.1 million, followed closely by Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn at $13.2 million. Independent Scott Lee Cohen reports $3.3 million, Green nominee Rich Whitney shows $45,000 and Libertarian Lex Green reports $24,000
Four years ago, Rod Blagojevich had about $17 million for the fall campaign, including his cash on hand at the end of June. This is the same way the ICPR figured this year’s numbers. But Blagojevich started running TV ads against Judy Baar Topinka in April. He spent almost $3.7 million on media buys between April 1 and the end of June and another $173K in mail. So, his actual “fall” spending was about $21 million.
Plus, there was no millionaire independent spending money hand over fist like this year. So, yeah, it’s a record on paper, but that isn’t the entire story.
Also, the Republican Governors Association accounts for a third of Brady’s cash.
* Back on October 20th, Fox News reported that Illinois Republicans have outperformed every other state party in terms of voter contact. The Republicans’ Illinois Victory program has called “almost three million” voters since the summer, the station reported. The party posted the video on its YouTube site with the headline: “FNC: Nearly 3 Million Calls by Illinois Victory! ” Watch…
* And here’s Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady today…
“We’ve stayed under the radar until now,” said Illinois GOP Chairman Pat Brady. “But we lead every other state in the number of phone calls we’ve made — 4.4 Million. And we’ve identified 2.5 million Republican voters.”
That means they’ve made over 100,000 calls a day since October 20th. Hmm. But how many are completed calls? I decided to check with the state party this afternoon.
Of those 4.4 million calls, a bit under 2 million were actually completed. Of those, they’ve identified the leanings of a little over 929,000 people, whether those be Republican, Democrat or whatever. They have a GOTV universe, they say, of 2.5 million. That would include hard “Rs” who’ve voted in primaries.
Statehouse pols have obligated so many of your tax dollars to prop up their bureaucracy and assure themselves of sweet retirement that there’s no money to pay the caretakers of our sick, disabled and mentally handicapped citizens. Those citizens can’t afford lobbyists.
Illinois has the lowest state employee per capita ratio in the nation. Propping up the “bureacracy” is only a real problem in their minds.
And the “caretakers” of our sick, disabled and mentally handicapped citizens pretty much all have lobbyists, contrary to the Tribune. The Illinois Hospital Association, the Illinois Council on Long Term Care, Illinois State Medical Society, Illinois Nurses Association, Lutheran Social Services, SEIU, Voices for Illinois Children, The ARC of Illinois, Illinois Association of Rehabilitation Facilities, National Association of Social Workers, United Cerebral Palsy of Illinois, Illinois Networks of Centers for Independent Living, the Illinois Association of Public Health Administrators, the Illinois Cannabis Patients Association… Shall I go on?
Angry people don’t think. And the Tribune editorial board is a good case in point.
The Illinois State Universities Retirement System and the Illinois State Employees’ Retirement System, two of the three largest funds, each reduced their assumed annualized rate of return to 7.75 percent, from 8.50 percent, while the much smaller Illinois Judges’ Retirement System lowered its goal to 7 percent, from 8 percent. […]
For the university pension fund, the change will push its liability level up by $2.4 billion, or more than 8 percent, to $30.1 billion, which in turn will reduce its funded level to 40.24 percent, from 43.75 percent. And the state’s annual contribution will rise by nearly $100 million, or more than 11 percent, to $980 million, according to William Mabe, executive director of the university pension system.
Yes, the move pushes up the unfunded liability. But by lowering the expected annual rate of return, that means the interest rate the state pays to the pension funds for our unfunded liability amount is also lowered. The magic of compound interest means that, over time, this may actually save the state some cash.
Can Twitter predict elections? New media guru Dan Zarrella says yes, Twitter can. He checked out a random sampling of recent campaigns and compared which candidates had the most Twitter followers, and in 71% of the races, the one with the most Twitter followers won. So we began checking out Illinois races to see if Zarrella’s theory can be right. Is Twitter that influential? Or does Twitter simply reflect “the word on the street” and thus, the “votes in the polls”?
If Twitter numbers indicate anything in Illinois gubernatorial race, Bill Brady’s walking away with that one. “Bill_Brady” shows 1888 Twitter followers and “ILGovPatQuinn” shows only 10 followers. A spoof, “PatQuinnsBrain” has more followers than the governor’s does. We couldn’t find a campaign account for Quinn in a quick browse, so, it doesn’t look good for Quinn if Twitter numbers matter.
* Bill Brady says he will fire at least 300 Rod Blagojevich holdovers if elected. However, the House’s “fumigation bill” targeted 750 employees…
The Illinois House voted unanimously last year for a “fumigation” bill introduced by Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, to remove about 750 employees who are “double-exempt.” The employees are not covered by civil service and are not protected by U.S. Supreme Court decisions against patronage firing. […]
Brady said Saturday the number of targeted appointees is “at least 300, if not more.”
Republicans continue to lead the races for both Governor and Senator in Illinois, albeit by close margins. Mark Kirk is ahead of Alexi Giannoulias 46-42 for the state’s open Senate seat and Bill Brady is ahead of Pat Quinn 45-40 for Governor.
There are three main reasons Republicans are headed for big gains across the country this year and the Illinois races exemplify all three of them:
-Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP. Kirk leads Giannoulias 46-31 with them and Brady has a 45-27 advantage over Quinn with them.
-Republican voters are much more unified around their candidates this year than Democrats are. 87% of GOP identifiers are planning to vote for Kirk while only 78% of Democrats are planning to vote for Giannoulias. In the Governor’s race 86% of Republicans support Brady while Quinn’s only getting 75% support from his party.
-Republican voters are much more likely to head to the polls this year than Democrats. In 2008 Barack Obama won Illinois by 25 points. Those who say they’re likely to vote this year only supported him by 14 points. That’s a strong indication that many of the voters who were a part of the Obama ‘wave’ are staying at home this year.
No matter who wins either of these races Illinois voters will be left with a Governor and Senator that they don’t like. Giannoulias’ favorability is 35/49, Kirk’s isn’t much better at 39/45. Quinn’s approval is 32/54 and that’s a good thing for Brady because voters don’t like him either, giving him a favorability of 39/45.
The presence of the third party candidates in the race seems to really be hurting Giannoulias. In a straight head to head between him and Kirk he trails by only a 46-45 margin. But a fair number of progressive voters who don’t like Giannoulias but can’t bring themselves to vote for Kirk are supporting the minor candidates in the contest.
As for Quinn he’s made an impressive comeback over the course of the campaign and his prospects certainly look a lot better than they did back in the spring and summer. But at the end of the day it’s an open question whether an incumbent Governor with a 32% approval rating can win reelection, no matter how blue their state or weak their opponent.
An Anzalone Liszt Research poll taken for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign committee from Oct. 27 and 28 shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leading Republican Mark Kirk 39 percent to 37 percent, a statistical tie since the poll had a margin of error of 4.9 points.
The same poll of 400 likely voters found Libertarian candidate Michael Labo with 4 percent, Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones with 3 percent, and 16 percent of voters undecided. It’s a small shift from the Anzalone Liszt poll taken Oct. 20 to 24, which showed Giannoulias with 38 percent and Kirk with 36 percent.
…Adding… Please, ignore this stupid YouGov “poll.” First, it’s not a poll. It’s an opt-in Internet survey. Second, they only allow the choice of two candidates in each race. This is a multi-candidate race. PPP noted, for instance, that the third partiers were taking votes away from Giannoulias. Either way, though, this is not a poll. Repeat: This YouGov thing is not a poll.
Rep. Mark Kirk doubled his 2-point lead in last week’s Fox News battleground state poll of likely voters, and now leads Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias 46 percent to 42 percent.
Giannoulias continues to suffer from Democratic defections to Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, who drew 6 percent support, including 8 percent of Democrats.
In the state’s gubernatorial election, Republican state Sen. Bill Brady added a point to his margin over incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn from last week’s poll. Brady now leads Quinn by 6 points, 44 percent to 38 percent. In this race, the Democrat is suffering at the hands of two minor candidates, the Green Party’s Rich Whitney and independent Scott Lee Cohen.
Whitney and Cohen are taking a combined 10 percent of the vote, largely from Democrats or liberal-leaning voters. Cohen, a successful pawnbroker, won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor but was chased out of the race by Quinn and others after allegations of domestic violence emerged.
The older ad seems to have been shot in much softer light than the new ad, which was shot in half shadow. The old ad was filmed in a home. The new spot was shot in front of a dark backdrop. The background music behind the primary ad helped make the spot more emotional. Quinn mentioned Dan Hynes by name back then, no such mention of Bill Brady now. His veterans work was played up before, but it’s almost all about “jobs” now.
I think the primary ad was better. Back then, it made me sit up and take notice. This new one leaves me sorta empty inside. Your thoughts?
He’s a good actor and really has a presence on TV. He’s also a convicted liar. I love pistachios, but no more will my lips touch them.
* Speaking of the criminal, Pat Quinn’s campaign posted audio of Blagojevich telling WBBM Radio years ago that Quinn is “not a member” of his administration. Listen…
*** UPDATE *** I don’t know why, but I kept forgetting during the weekend to post this radio spot the president cut for Giannoulias…
* It’s the day before the election. You’ve seen all the polling, but now we have some prognostications.
Bernie Schoenburg picked Pat Quinn and Mark Kirk to win, as well as Phil Hare. Kurt Erickson chose Bill Brady as the winner. Peter Brown of Quinnipac said Mark Kirk is slightly favored. Russ Stewart picked Bill Brady and Mark Kirk and chose Bobby Schilling over Hare as well as Bob Dold over Dan Seals. Chris Krug picked Quinn and Giannoulias, plus Melissa Bean over Joe Walsh. Laura Washington says get ready for a long night. 538 projects Kirk, Brady, Seals, Bean, Hultgren and Schilling. Zorn appears to predict Brady.
* The Question: Who are your final picks to click on election day? Explain.
The federal investigation dubbed “Operation Crooked Code” so far has led to the convictions of 21 people — including 15 city building and zoning inspectors. The 21st conviction came just last Thursday, when a federal jury convicted developer Dumitru Curescu of bribery.
Despite those successful cases, Crooked Code hasn’t been as high-profile as investigations of the city’s Hired Truck Program or city hiring or the Operation Silver Shovel probe, largely because it involves corruption on a smaller scale — rank-and-file city workers taking bribes to overlook building-code violations on neighborhood housing projects.
All of the towns in The Beacon-News circulation area were above the national and state averages for returning the census forms by mail. Sugar Grove and Geneva had the highest rate of return at 87 percent; Aurora had the lowest rate at 77 percent.
A proposal by Cook County Board president Todd Stroger calling for a change in the way the medical examiner is appointed has commissioners puzzled. […]
Trouble is, according to the medical examiner’s Web site, this already is the case in Cook County. And it’s been that way since the mid 70’s.
* Race for obscure post tests Chicago-style politics
The race for the obscure but powerful post of county assessor pits an old-school Democratic Party stalwart criticized for helping hire family members to government jobs and accused of arranging tax breaks for friends against a self-styled reformer who worked as Mayor Richard Daley’s chief of staff.
* My syndicated newspaper column is incredibly difficult to write the Friday before an election, when it’s due. Most of the dailies publish it before election day, but several weeklies run it on Wednesday or Thursday. So, I have to come up with a “timeless” topic. I’ve been meaning to do this column for years, but never got around to it. Since I needed a topic that would still be valid no matter who won tomorrow, I pulled it off the back burner…
I will never forget the night Paul Lis was fired.
My parents were at my house, but I refused to budge from my barstool because I couldn’t miss this. Not for them. Not for anybody.
Lis was a bigtime political fixer back then. He has known just about everybody who was anybody in Illinois and Chicago politics. He’s been an informal adviser to many of the old top dogs, and at the time he was fired he was working for Gov. George Ryan, Senate President Pate Philip and House Republican Leader Lee Daniels. Ryan was trying to pass a bill to toughen an assault weapons law, but Philip and Daniels were having none of it.
Lis was siding with Ryan, but Philip, a legendary conservative who loved his guns, was furious at both the governor and Lis, whom Philip falsely blamed for hatching the idea. When Pate strolled into the tavern, I figured things were about to explode. And then Pate stomped right up to Lis and after a brief and heated conversation announced that Lis was fired.
“You can’t fire me!” Lis roared back, adding that, technically, he reported to Philip’s chief of staff and campaign manager.
Pate insisted that he could, indeed, fire Lis, and a series of unprintable expletives were exchanged. The entire bar was silent as everyone watched this extraordinary event unfold. A Senate President is not often yelled at in public, at least not in Springfield.
Lis has always been well known in political circles for his sharp tongue. He loves his cigars and in the old days would play with his false teeth while he talked. He doesn’t care a whit what you think of him. And he loves humbling the haughty.
But Lis is also one of the brightest guys around. The truly smart people understand this, and they listen to him even when they totally disagree.
Lis tried to warn George Ryan over and over about the sort of people the doomed governor surrounded himself with. Ryan listened on every other topic but this one, probably to his undying chagrin.
A born contrarian, Lis would usually argue the other side of issues with Ryan just to make sure that the positions Ryan eventually took were well thought out. He describes his role as “the skeptic in the room who had to be persuaded.” Lis would also regularly burst into Ryan’s office when he thought the governor was making a mistake.
“Strength,” Lis says, “Is the ability to advance your agenda.” And when you fail to get things done, you look weak, no matter the reason.
Gov. Pat Quinn is a prime example. Quinn operated with huge Democratic majorities in both legislative chambers. But too often Quinn and his people tried to push proposals “and then were forced to abandon them because they had not done their homework,” Lis complains. He’s right. Rod Blagojevich had the same problem with surrounding himself with enabling know-nothings. They let him do whatever he wanted, right up until his arrest and impeachment.
Quinn, Lis says, never had the opportunity to really grow. He went from one low-level government job to another and then was suddenly thrust into the governorship. And the “people who enabled him in his lesser positions, continued to enable him,” Lis grumbles.
He has the same fears about lack of growth regarding Quinn’s Republican opponent Bill Brady, who has always been basically a backbench legislator without any real governmental responsibilities. To say the least, Lis is not optimistic about the future.
I always figured Pate Philip would hire Lis back, but he didn’t and as a result he was never quite the same leader he’d been. If George Ryan had listened to Lis more, he might not be in prison today.
The point is, whoever our new governor is (I’m writing this before election day), he needs to hire at least one crazy, brilliant, experienced, fearless contrarian like Paul Lis and then listen. He doesn’t have to agree, but he must listen.
Paul says he’s too old for the task, and he’s now married to a wonderful woman. If you’re going to do that job, Lis says, you have to be single. A spouse might not understand that your boss fired you after you called him a freaking half-wit at the top of your lungs while your false teeth fell to the barroom floor.
