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IEA puts pressure on IDPH

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* IEA…

The Illinois Education Association (IEA) called for the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) to identify verified COVID-19 outbreaks in schools. The announcement comes after ProPublica Illinois revealed in a story published today that while Illinois public health officials have identified COVID-19 outbreaks in at least 44 school buildings, they won’t disclose where those buildings are and that they may not know the full picture of how the virus has spread.

At least 105 students and 73 staff have been affected, according IDPH. However, state numbers show that between Aug. 15, when schools started to reopen around the state, and Oct. 2, when ProPublica ended its inquiry, nearly 8,700 children in Illinois between the ages of 5 and 17 tested positive – about 180 kids per day – more than double the amount being infected prior to schools reopening, which averaged 72.

“From the start, we have said schools should only open if they can do so safely – with all the appropriate safety precautions in place – and knowledge of an outbreak in a school building absolutely meets that criteria,” said Kathi Griffin, president of the Illinois Education Association. “The number one goal of everyone should be the health and safety of students and those who educate and care for them.”

IDPH defines an outbreak as two or more confirmed cases within 14 days of the start of symptoms in people who do not share a household and did not have close contact in another setting.

“We know there are districts in our state that are being very good about notifying public health officials, staff and families when there are cases and that keeps communities safe,” Griffin said. “But we also know there are districts that aren’t. And, when those cases are kept in the dark, the appropriate people can’t quarantine. The infection spreads. Students, staff and communities are put in harm’s way. Everyone is struggling on how to handle this, but transparency is key.”

According to the Illinois State Board of Education’s map, which was last updated on Sept. 21, 685,000 Illinois students are attending school in person, at least part time, in 69 percent of the state’s school districts. The other 31 percent of districts account for 1.2 million students who continue to learn remotely. Though, many districts are contemplating returning to the classroom in the coming weeks.

“How is a community supposed to decide whether to return to the classroom if they don’t know the true impact this is having across the state? Health officials inform communities when nursing homes or jails have outbreaks because it impacts those who live and work there. Certainly, communities are entitled to know about outbreaks at schools. It shouldn’t even be a question,” Griffin said.

* From that article

In all, 8,668 Illinois children ages 5 to 17 have tested positive for the virus from Aug. 15, when schools started to reopen, to Oct. 2, state health officials said. That amounts to about 180 new infections among children each day, on average, since school returned. Between March and early August, there were 11,953 confirmed COVID-19 cases among children, an average of about 72 a day. Fewer than five school-aged children have died of the disease, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health.

Even as parents, school leaders and others in the state have pushed for more transparency about cases related to schools, the state health department said this week that it continues to weigh whether to publish data on school-driven outbreaks and has no timeline to decide whether to do so.

IDPH spokeswoman Melaney Arnold said health officials are concerned that publishing COVID-19 data tied to schools could identify students and staff and violate their privacy. The department publishes case counts for other facilities, including nursing homes and psychiatric hospitals. It also specifies the number of cases in people younger than 20 in each county.

  15 Comments      


Fitch Ratings takes a look ahead

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Fitch

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:

    –Fitch anticipates Illinois will actively manage fiscal challenges in the near term with nonrecurring measures such as growth in accounts payable. A downgrade could be triggered by the lack of a credible path to reversing those measures quickly, once an economic recovery finally takes hold, or by a reliance on short-term measures that materially compound the state’s long-term challenges such as its pension liability burden. Specifically, Fitch will assess the implications of the graduated income tax vote, the likelihood of additional federal aid that could mitigate the state’s fiscal challenges and the effectiveness of the budget reduction plans the governor has directed state agencies to develop for the current and next fiscal years.

    –A return to economic contraction in the U.S., consistent with Fitch’s coronavirus downside scenario, which could trigger greater than anticipated, sustained and deep revenue declines and materially erodes the state’s gap-closing capacity. Fitch’s assessment of the state’s long-term economic growth prospects could also be fundamentally weakened from an already modest level. This would pressure all aspects of the state’s credit profile. […]

Illinois has managed short-term liquidity pressure with no interruption in timely payments for key operating expenses, including debt service, and Fitch anticipates that will remain the case. […]

As Fitch anticipated, with additional federal aid having yet to materialize, the state is revisiting its spending plan and not relying simply on the non-recurring measures noted above. In September, the Governor directed state agencies to develop budget contingencies that could reduce fiscal 2021 spending at least 5% from appropriated levels. GOMB will assess agency plans before estimating the savings that could be generated from the reductions (some of which may require legislative action in a November session to be effective). Further, the governor directed agencies to prepare for deeper reductions of 10% in fiscal 2022. Even with such reductions, Fitch anticipates the state still will likely need to take substantial additional budget actions beyond this fiscal year.

The November election will have direct fiscal consequences given the vote on the graduated income tax amendment (estimated to generate $1.3 billion in additional revenue in fiscal 2021 and roughly double that in future full fiscal years, if approved), and indirect consequences if changes at the federal level alter the likelihood of additional federal aid. Illinois’ legislative session after the November elections could be particularly consequential this fiscal year. […]

In Fitch’s coronavirus baseline and downside scenarios, the [Fitch Analytical Stress Test] model indicates Illinois’ revenue decline could be among the most severe for U.S. states over the three-year scenario period, as Fitch anticipates the state’s tax revenues will rebound more slowly than in most other states. This will likely constrain Illinois’ ability to restore its limited financial resilience. In the current baseline scenario Illinois’ revenues decline 15% in year one, followed by a 6% increase in year two and cumulative result over the three-year scenario of a 8% decline. This compares with the state median decline of 14% in the first year and negative 3% over the three-year scenario. In the downside scenario, Illinois’ first-year decline would be 16%, followed by a further 5% decline in the second year. The cumulative three-year decline of 17% under Fitch’s downside scenario is weaker than the median 12% decline for all states reflecting the state’s greater historical susceptibility to national economic downturns and more muted recovery during expansions. Fitch anticipates this higher downside scenario exposure could make it even more difficult for the state to maintain an investment-grade credit profile.

Illinois’ budget management during the long period of economic expansion preceding the pandemic was exceptionally weak. Recent revenue gains stabilized the state’s credit profile over the near term, but long-term trends remain a significant credit concern.

Discuss.

  6 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Campaign update

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

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New unemployment claims down a tad nationally, way up in Illinois

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* CNBC

First-time claims for unemployment benefits totaled 840,000 last week, higher than expected in another sign that the spike in job growth over the summer has cooled heading into Election Day.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting 825,000 new claims.

Though the total was a bit worse than Wall Street expected, it still represented a modest decline from the upwardly revised 849,000 from a week earlier. It also was the lowest level of claims since the virus-induced shutdown in mid-March. […]

Claims have been above 800,000 every week since the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic, leading to the shutdown of the U.S. economy.

* CBS 2

The U.S. Department of Labor estimates 36,036 new unemployment claims were filed during the week of Sept. 28 in Illinois, according to the DOL’s weekly claims report released Thursday. […]

There were 29,390 new unemployment claims were filed across the state last week, the week of Sept. 21.

IDES reported 27,384 new unemployment claims across the state during the week of Sept. 7.

That’s a 22.6 percent increase in a week.

  1 Comment      


Amazon unveils Rivian van: “The future of last mile delivery”

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Verge

Amazon unveiled its first all-electric delivery van on Thursday. The vehicle, built by EV startup Rivian, will come with state-of-the-art technology, like sensing equipment and an advanced driver-assist system. The e-commerce giant says it expects to have 10,000 vans on the road making deliveries “as early as 2022,” with a total fleet of 100,000 vehicles expected by 2030.

“When we set out to create our first customized electric delivery vehicle with Rivian, we knew that it needed to far surpass any other delivery vehicle. We wanted drivers to love using it and customers to feel excited when they saw it driving through their neighborhood and pulling up to their home,” said Ross Rachey, director of Amazon’s global fleet and products, in a statement. “We combined Rivian’s technology with our delivery logistics knowledge, and the result is what you see here — the future of last mile delivery.”

* The rollout video

  14 Comments      


3,059 new cases, 32 additional deaths, 1,755 in hospitals, 392 ICU patients, 3.7 percent positivity rate

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois has topped 1,700 hospitalizations just once since mid-June and has topped 390 ICU patients only one other time since late June. Brace yourselves…

The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 3,059 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 32 additional confirmed deaths.

    Adams County: 1 male 90s
    Champaign County: 1 male 30s, 1 female 90s
    Clark County: 1 female 80s
    Clay County: 1 male 70s
    Coles County: 1 female 80s
    Cook County: 1 male 50s, 2 female 60s, 3 female 80s
    DuPage County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 80s
    Fayette County: 1 female 70s
    Greene County: 1 female 80s
    Kane County: 2 males 70s, 1 female 80s
    Livingston County: 1 male 50s
    McLean County: 1 male 80s
    Montgomery County: 1 female 80s
    Saline County: 1 male 60s
    Sangamon County: 1 male 50s
    Shelby County: 1 female 90s
    St. Clair County: 1 male 50s
    Tazewell County: 1 female 80s, 1 male 90s
    Vermilion County: 1 male 70s
    Will County: 1 female 70s, 1 male 80s
    Winnebago County: 1 female 90s

Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 310,700 cases, including 8,910 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 1 – October 7 is 3.7%. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 72,491 specimens for a total of 6,105,780. As of last night, 1,755 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 392 patients were in the ICU and 163 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.

Following guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH is now reporting separately both confirmed and probable cases and deaths on its website. Reporting probable cases will help show the potential burden of COVID-19 illness and efficacy of population-based non-pharmaceutical interventions. IDPH will update these data once a week.

*All data are provisional and will change. In order to rapidly report COVID-19 information to the public, data are being reported in real-time. Information is constantly being entered into an electronic system and the number of cases and deaths can change as additional information is gathered. For health questions about COVID-19, call the hotline at 1-800-889-3931 or email dph.sick@illinois.gov.

  16 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

U.S. Senator Dick Durbin’s reelection campaign is releasing a new television advertisement highlighting Durbin’s efforts to provide rural fire and emergency medical services (EMS) agencies the critical funding they need to serve their communities.

Durbin’s legislation, the SIREN Act, authorized new funding for a federal grant program that supports rural EMS agencies in training and recruiting staff and purchasing equipment—for everything from opioid overdose treatment drug Naloxone and first aid kits, to power stretchers and new ambulances. The bipartisan bill was enacted into law as part of the 2018 Farm Bill.

“Now more than ever, we’ve got to stand up and support our first responders–and make sure our emergency services in rural Illinois have the resources they need,” said Durbin. “The SIREN Act helps firefighters and EMTs–who are struggling to keep up with COVID but also other issues like the opioid epidemic and the aging population in rural America. I’m proud to continue the fight to strengthen rural healthcare and emergency response.”

Local communities in Illinois are already taking advantage of the new grant program. The Ambulance & Fire Protection District of Amboy, Illinois was recently awarded $120,000 in funding, which they will use to train new EMTs and paramedics, and train their existing staff on telehealth for opioid care. The agency provides EMS services for a 200 square mile area in Lee County.

* The ad

* Script

MARK KENNEDY, EMT, NAUVOO, IL:

When it comes to medical emergencies, out here, every second counts.

Delays can be fatal.

So I asked Senator Durbin to help EMTs and firefighters to save our rural communities.

He listened, and led the fight to pass the SIREN Act–to recruit and train first responders, to buy the equipment we need to save lives.

My community counts on me. It’s good to know that we can count on Senator Durbin.

NARRATOR:
Dick Durbin, a Senator for times like these.

DICK DURBIN:
I’m Dick Durbin, and I approve this message.

* The Question: Your rating? Make sure to explain. Thanks.

  17 Comments      


Apparently, it’s now the young’s turn in the COVID barrel

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tired (from April 27th)

Darrel Hickox, a member of the Jasper County Board, disputed the numbers from state public health officials, contending that “nobody” in Jasper County has died from the coronavirus.

He said that members of the media who report on the pandemic are “socialists, liberals and communists.”

“There has been some coronavirus here, but they was dying anyway,” Hickox said.

* Wired…


…Adding… OneMan points out in comments that using just a 40 percent “herd immunity” (which is on the extreme low end of projections) would result in 57,591 additional deaths [updated number].

  37 Comments      


Rate the new Vote Yes For Fairness TV ad

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Opposition press release…

Proponents of the Tax Hike Amendment are out with another false and misleading ad attempting to convince voters that Springfield Politicians didn’t mean what they said when they put taxing retirement income on the table if their amendment passes. However, we know their claims ring hollow because other insiders have made clear their support for taxing retirement income. Additionally, every state across the country with a graduated tax structure also taxes retirement income.

State Treasurer Michael Frerichs let the cat out of the bag in June when he admitted that a graduated tax system would “make clear you can have graduated rates when you are taxing retirement income,” adding that it was worth a discussion.

Now, a report has surfaced showing that in 2018 Illinois’ now Deputy Governor and Director of Revenue also supported taxing retirement income if a graduated tax was instituted.

“Every state with a graduated income tax also taxes retirement income, which is further proof we simply cannot trust Springfield Politicians with the new power this Tax Hike Amendment gives them,” said Lissa Druss, Spokeswoman for The Coalition to Stop the Tax Hike Amendment. “They are desperately trying to backtrack what they’ve already said they support – which is taxing retirement income if their Tax Hike Amendment is approved,” added Druss.

“A report has surfaced.” Heh.

* The new ad

* Script…

The billionaires are spending a fortune to try and scare us. They want to keep getting away without paying their fair share. I did my research and here are the facts. The Fair Tax will not tax retirement income. You heard that right. The fair tax will not tax retirement income. As a matter of fact, 97% of Illinois will get a tax cut, including seniors like me. It’s time for change. Vote yes for fairness.

* You can compare the ad with the opposition’s ad

Script…

I’m deeply concerned about the Tax Hike Amendment.

It gives Springfield Politicians new power to increase income taxes on anyone.

Including middle income families like mine.

And hardworking Illinoisans like me.

They would even have the power to tax my retirement income.

We don’t trust Springfield Politicians to be fair to taxpayers.

Please stand with middle class families across Illinois and vote no.

Vote no on the Tax Hike Amendment.

  21 Comments      


Leader of Kilbride opposition has Rauner-like plan for gridlock, reform

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Scott Reeder

Jim Nowlan, a former Republican state representative, is chairing the committee trying to oust Kilbride. He said they hope to leave the Supreme Court deadlocked 3-3 between Republicans and Democrats, if his group is successful in getting Kilbride removed.

“That way when Mike Madigan comes out with his (redistricting) map, we can have a judge – from outside Cook County – rule its unconstitutional and the supreme court will be deadlocked and unable to reach a majority to overturn the decision.

He presumes the high court would also be deadlocked in picking a replacement for Kilbride. And he also presumes that a judge will be found who is willing to rule a map – which hasn’t even been drawn yet – is unconstitutional. And he presumes the high court would vote in a partisan manner on a redistricting case.

There are a lot of presumptions there.

No kidding. Nowlan just assumes that the most historically bipartisan institution in the state will suddenly become extremely partisan and the result, like magic, will be great for Illinois.

Anybody remember the last person who fervently believed that hyperpartisan gridlock would magically result in reform? Does the name Bruce Rauner ring a bell?

* Back to Reeder

But these kinds of political machinations are not why the drafters of the Illinois Constitution allowed for voters to decide whether a judge should be retained. While few drafters of the 1970 constitution are still alive, I spoke with one of them, Springfield lawyer Mary Lee Leahy, ten years ago about this topic. She died two years later in 2012.

Here is what she had to say: “Nobody ever dreamed that retention would be used in this way. The idea was to give voters a chance to get rid of bad judges – ones who made sloppy decisions or were rude to lawyers or who behaved in an erratic way. It was never intended to be used to punish judges for voting a particular way. The judiciary has to remain independent and act without fear of retaliation of an interest group.”

In other words the way Kilbride is being targeted is an abuse of the process.

  30 Comments      


Another day, another failed lawsuit

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WTTW

The possibility for high school students to play all fall sports is again at a standstill.

On Thursday, a DuPage County judge denied a request for a temporary restraining order against the Illinois High School Association that could have allowed more fall sports to be played.

The class action lawsuit, brought on by a group of student-athletes and their parents, was dismissed Monday morning.

* Meanwhile

Orland Park has dropped a federal lawsuit against Gov. J.B. Pritzker challenging restrictions put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to court filings.

The village and other plaintiffs in the case had initially filed the complaint in mid-June, and last month told the judge overseeing the case it planned to file an amended lawsuit by this Thursday.

The short document filed Tuesday did not give an explanation why the village decided to voluntarily dismiss the lawsuit.

…Adding… If past is prologue, these plaintiffs are likely heading for the same conclusion

Three more DeKalb County restaurant owners are joining in on a lawsuit filed against Gov. JB Pritzker and the Illinois Department of Public Health alleging “unfair” regional mitigations due to COVID-19 resurgences.

Karlsbad Tavern & Grill, 413 W. Main St. in Genoa, Uncle Milty’s Pizza Place, 131 W. Market St. in Somonauk, and Rambo’s Bar & Grill, 140 W. Market St. in Somonauk joined seven other businesses owners across the county suing the the governor and IDPH Director Ngozi Ezike, according to their lawyer, Bradley Melzer, of Sycamore-based Cronauer Law Thursday.

The update comes a week after seven business owners announced they’re suing to appeal to public health officials to designate consequences of COVID-19 resurgences on a county by county basis, not regionally. They’re arguing that the metrics used to designate mitigations — including a positivty rate threshold of 8% — is unfairly skewed because of higher rates in Winnebago and surrounding counties.

  11 Comments      


Taylorville festival exploited loophole, ignored official warnings

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Background is here if you need it. WAND TV

The annual Chilifest in Taylorville, which led to a positive COVID-19 case, was held against the wishes of local officials, an [Emergency Management Agency] press release said.

An employee of a company involved in the annual Taylorville Greater Chamber of Commerce Chilifest tested positive for COVID-19, health officials said. The positive test result came Tuesday, when the person completed a rapid test. […]

According to an update WAND-TV received from health officials, organizers ignored the wishes of the city of Taylorville, Christian County, the EMA and Christian County Health Department in holding Chilifest. The health department would not approve food vendors, and the EMA said Chilifest officials got around this by having a licensed kitchen make the chili, with food served individually from a refrigerated truck.

The EMA said they told organizers to enforce social distancing and masks if they were going against the wishes of local leaders, but did not see those things happening in pictures of the event.

The EMA is now calling the Chilifest positive case a “super spreader event.” Chilifest attendees are asked to monitor their health. A release from the EMA included the following statement:

I’m not sure that this yet qualifies as a super spreader event because the locals haven’t yet said if the infected person is a super spreader or someone who may not be highly contagious.

However, ignoring official public health warnings can have really lousy consequences. And even if nobody else gets sick, the negative publicity this incident has spawned ought to be a lesson for everyone involved. Also, too, victim-blaming is not a good look, cornhole company

In America, a supposedly modern industrialized nation, people have naturally come to expect that the folks in charge are following the rules.

Christian County’s average positivity rate is 10.4 percent.

* Last word…


  19 Comments      


Following this guy’s advice means everyone’s income taxes will almost definitely rise

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* What’s the word for a person who thinks this is valid logic?

I called it the Pritzker/Madigan tax, but now I think it should be called the Chumbolone Tax.

Because only a chumbolone would trust Illinois politicians who promise never to use the tax change to go after the middle class. Really?

Just a few days ago, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton was sent out to publicly speak on the issue. She said if Pritzker’s “fair tax” isn’t approved by voters in November, state government will be “forced to consider” raising everyone’s taxes by 20%.

Vote for it, vote against it. That’s your business. But I’ve been saying for a long time that if you vote “No” on raising takes on upper-income earners, you’re very likely voting “Yes” to increase everyone’s taxes, including your own. And I don’t care who the governor is or who the House Speaker is. States can’t print money. They have to raise revenues or make cuts. And even Kansas Republicans eventually rejected steep cuts.

Look, nobody can credibly promise you 100 percent that rates won’t be increased on other income levels in the future (even if rates had been put into the constitutional amendment), and, despite the column above, nobody has made that ironclad promise. But it’s a pretty darned safe bet that everyone’s rates will rise if the graduated income tax doesn’t pass.

  83 Comments      


Hang in there, Metro East

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* BND

Gov. J.B. Pritzker said the metro-east could see loosened COVID-19 restrictions as soon as Friday if the region continues on a downward trend in its number of coronavirus cases.

The percentage of COVID-19 tests coming back positive fell from 6.7% Tuesday to 6.3% Wednesday in the metro-east, or Region 4, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health. The region includes St. Clair, Madison, Bond, Clinton, Monroe, Randolph and Washington counties.

“That’s enormous progress,” Pritzker said during a news briefing in Chicago. “… Region 4 could see a return to the looser restrictions enacted in most of the state as soon as Friday, perhaps.”

The metro-east has been under extra restrictions compared to the rest of the state since Aug. 18, when it surpassed the 8% positivity rate threshold. Surpassing that metric triggered additional rules, such as a ban on indoor service and bars and restaurants.

Let’s hope the folks in that region learned how not to have to deal with this again.

  6 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Wilson, spokesperson test positive

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* NBC 5

U.S. Senate candidate Dr. Willie Wilson and his campaign spokesman have tested positive for coronavirus, his campaign confirmed Thursday.

Wilson and spokesman Scott Winslow both tested positive and the rest of his campaign is now being tested, Winslow said Thursday morning.

Wilson is running under the “Willie Wilson Party” against incumbent U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, a Democrat, and four other candidates.

It remains unclear how Wilson may have contracted the virus or how severe his symptoms are.

…Adding… Meanwhile

The real victory for Wilson will be if he can get 5 percent of the vote, which would make his Willie Wilson Party a permanent fixture on Illinois ballots, just as the Green and Libertarian parties have.

Scoring 5+ percent does not give parties permanent ballot spots. The Green and Libertarian parties are on the ballot this year because of the coronavirus and a federal judge’s munificence.

*** UPDATE *** From the candidate…

I recently tested positive for COVID-19. Like so many of my fellow Americans, I am not immune from COVID-19. This is a disease that does not discriminate. Since the beginning of this pandemic I have distributed more than 40 million face masks to first responders, senior citizens, churches and individuals.

While we have taken precautions by wearing face masks and social distancing this disease is highly contagious. I join the ranks of the more than 7 million people in America that have tested positive for Coronavirus.

I am experiencing mild symptoms at this time. However, I am confident that we will beat COVID-19. I have begun the 10-day quarantine and will bounce back from this stronger than before. I am suspending all in person campaigning for the United States Senate the next 10 days while I quarantine. I thank God for great doctors and first responders that care for all of us.

I am praying for all of those impacted by COVID-19 in Illinois and our country at this time. I believe in America and our ability to overcome COVID-19.

  21 Comments      


Open thread

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois-centric and polite to each other, please.

  19 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Thursday, Oct 8, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


  Comments Off      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Governor’s office twice refuses to deny involvement in Frerichs’ press conference cancellation

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Background is here if you need it. Mary Ann Ahern

Frerichs, who has since walked back his statement, had been scheduled to address his “misleading” comments in a press conference Tuesday, in which he aimed to “reassure senior citizens that the proposal will not tax retirement income.” That appearance was abruptly canceled just 10 minutes before it was set to begin. […]

Speculation swirled over why Frerichs suddenly canceled his Tuesday appearance, but it appears Pritzker may have played a role.

“Earlier today, Gov. Pritzker put the muzzle on Treasurer Frerichs who was minutes away from telling the people of Illinois the truth: Pritzker has a plan to tax retirement income in Illinois and needs the constitutional amendment to get it done” Illinois Republican Party Chairman Tim Schneider said in a statement.

A spokesperson for the governor’s office did not deny Pritzker’s involvement in the decision.

* So, I asked the governor’s office for a response. Here’s Jordan Abudayyeh…

The Governor speaks regularly to allies and stakeholders about policy. The decision on his media availability is ultimately up to the Treasurer.

Heh.

*** UPDATE *** Quentin Fulks told WCIA’s Mark Maxwell the reality about the prospects for a tax on retirement income. “It’s political suicide,” Fulks said (correctly, I would add). “It’s an extremely unpopular topic in Illinois”

  32 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Republicans call Welch a “coward,” “despicable” and an “utter insult to the people,” among other things

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Background is here if you need it. Republican members of the Special Investigating Committee respond to the postponement of hearings until after the election

“Special treatment is being given to Speaker Madigan,” [Rep. Tom Demmer] said. “It deprives the people of Illinois and fellow members from learning what conduct the speaker may have engaged in.”

“Chairman Welch’s decision is an utter insult to the people of Illinois,” Mazzochi said. “Welch said he would run a professional investigation. This is how a professional politician covers up the truth. The only thing that seems to matter is protecting Mike Madigan.”

“I thought Chris Welch was a man of integrity,” Wehrli said. “Today Chris Welch decided integrity doesn’t matter. We are being stonewalled. We are being lied to protect one man.”

* Tribune

Wehrli said Welch appears “willing to cast aside his own integrity to protect Speaker Michael J. Madigan.”

* WIFR

“Chairman Welch’s decision is an utter insult to the people of Illinois who want and deserve the truth. Chairman Welch has now become Chairman Squelch,” said Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst).

Mazzochi, one of three Republicans serving on the investigating committee, said it’s clear that Welch is only interested in protecting Madigan.

“Chris Welch said that he was going to run a professional investigation. This is not how a professional runs an investigation. This is how a political professional covers up the truth and crushes an investigation,” she said. “Chris Welch is a coward. He does not have the resolve to have Mike Madigan come before our committee, and actually answer those questions, blocking the right of voters to know.”

* Center Square

State Rep. Deanne Mazzochi, R-Elmhurst, is also on the committee and said delaying the next hearing to after the election is stonewalling and a disservice to voters.

“We have a Speaker of the House mentioned 72 times is a deferred prosecution agreement,” Mazzochi said. “We are right before an election and Chris Welch doesn’t want to give voters that transparency. That’s despicable.”

* Sun-Times

“The only thing apparently that matters is protecting Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan,” Mazzochi said. “That’s what matters to Chris Welch: protecting his patronage, protecting his political power, protecting his privilege. … This is stonewalling. This is ostrich-in-the-sand decision-making.”

As the late Rep. Zeke Giorgi used to say about the House: “Best show in Illinois.”

*** UPDATE *** Stay tuned…

MEDIA ADVISORY: Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin Says Time’s Up for Democrats: Demand Answers from Madigan or Call for His Resignation

WHO: Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs)

WHAT: Leader Durkin says time’s up for Democrats, either demand answers in ComEd’s nine-year bribery scheme or demand Madigan’s resignation.

WHEN: 10:30 a.m. on Thursday, October 8, 2020

  16 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* SJ-R

Local health leaders are encouraging the public to take the same actions that help prevent the spread of COVID-19 — wearing a face mask, washing hands frequently and maintaining social distance — to also prevent spread of the flu.

The upcoming Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays and students back from school will mean more family gatherings and the opportunity for both to spread, if people let their guards down.

That’s why, those leaders say, it is important to get a flu vaccine as the flu season starts in earnest.

Flu vaccines are plentiful, said Gail O’Neill, director of the Sangamon County Department of Public Health.

* The Question: Did you get your flu shot yet? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please…


survey service

  73 Comments      


Kifowit lavished with praise

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Denise Crosby at the Aurora Beacon-News

It’s not such a stretch to link the current attempt to upend the state’s most powerful politician to a teenage gabfest back in 1989.

That’s when a few girlfriends, sitting on a couch in Midlothian, began talking about what they wanted to do with this next phase of their lives after graduation.

That’s also when then 18-year-old Wheaton High School grad Stephanie Kifowit, “a little bored” working at Osco and taking some classes at College of DuPage, declared her desire for some “adventure and excitement.” So she pulled out a phone book, called a Harvey recruiting station, and picked the U.S. Marine Corps over the Air Force or Army because she figured “go big or go home.”

When I spoke with state Rep. Kifowit on Friday, the 84th District Democrat who represents portions of Aurora, Naperville, Oswego and Montgomery, had a day earlier announced she was challenging Michael Madigan’s post as Speaker of the House. And she quickly pointed to her stint in the U.S. Marines with giving her the moxie to take on the undisputed Boss Man of Illinois politics and do so in such way that could define her own political destiny.

Go big or go home?

* Daily Herald editorial

We’ve been quick to heap praise on Democratic lawmakers who openly have taken the politically courageous stand of calling for Mike Madigan to give up his positions as House speaker and head of the Illinois Democratic Party. But the announcement by Oswego Democratic state Rep. Stephanie Kifowit deserves special acknowledgment of its own. For, Kifowit brings something to a decision about leadership in the House that the lower chamber hasn’t seen in almost anyone’s memory.

Democracy.

* Illinois Radio Network

Republican candidates for the Illinois House are putting pressure on their Democratic opponents to announce whether they will support Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, who’s implicated but not charged in a bribery scheme unearthed by federal prosecutors. […]

And though she’s taken nearly $800,000 from political funds Madigan controls, last week, state Rep. Stephanie Kifowit, D-Oswego, who’s running unopposed for her House seat, said she can’t support the speaker and will challenge him for the position when the new Legislature is seated in January.

“The people of Illinois are tired of putting up with corruption or scandal for a long time,” Kifowit said.

* Related…

* State Rep. Stephanie Kifowit on why she’s challenging Mike Madigan for Illinois House Speaker: ‘We need to have a much higher standard of principle and ethics for those individuals in very high leadership positions in the state’

  11 Comments      


2,630 new cases, 42 additional deaths, 1,679 hospitals, 3.5 percent positivity rate, 6+ million tests conducted to date

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 2,630 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 42 additional confirmed deaths.

    • Bureau County: 1 female 40s
    • Champaign County: 1 female 80s
    • Christian County: 1 female 70s, 2 males 80s, 1 female 90s
    • Clinton County: 1 female 80s
    • Coles County: 1 female 80s
    • Cook County: 1 male 60s, 1 female 80s, 1 male 80s, 2 males 90s
    • DuPage County: 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s, 1 male 90s
    • Franklin County: 1 male 90s
    • Kane County: 1 female 70s
    • Kankakee County: 1 male 70s
    • Madison County: 1 female 90s
    • Marion County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 80s
    • Perry County: 1 female 60s
    • Randolph County: 1 male 70s
    • Rock Island County: 1 male 70s
    • Saline County: 1 female 80s
    • Sangamon County: 1 male 90s
    • Shelby County: 1 female 70s, 1 female 80s
    • St. Clair County: 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s
    • Tazewell County: 1 female 80s, 1 male 80s
    • Wabash County: 1 male 70s
    • Will County: 1 female 50s, 1 female 60s, 1 female 70s, 2 females 90s
    • Williamson County: 1 female 90s

Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 307,641 cases, including 8,878 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from September 30 – October 6 is 3.5%. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 58,820 specimens for a total of 6,033,289. As of last night, 1,679 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 372 patients were in the ICU and 165 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.

Following guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH is now reporting separately both confirmed and probable cases and deaths on its website. Reporting probable cases will help show the potential burden of COVID-19 illness and efficacy of population-based non-pharmaceutical interventions. IDPH will update these data once a week.

*All data are provisional and will change. In order to rapidly report COVID-19 information to the public, data are being reported in real-time. Information is constantly being entered into an electronic system and the number of cases and deaths can change as additional information is gathered. For health questions about COVID-19, call the hotline at 1-800-889-3931 or email dph.sick@illinois.gov.

  7 Comments      


*** UPDATED x2 *** Tax Foundation slams graduated income tax as AARP calls out “myths and lies” pushed by opponents

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

The nonpartisan Tax Foundation has released an updated report on Governor J.B. Pritzker’s (D) proposal to permit a graduated-rate income tax in Illinois, which would take effect if voters approve a constitutional amendment on November 3.

If passed, Illinois would have some of the highest individual and corporate income taxes in the country and one of the least competitive overall tax codes, causing the state to decline from 36th to 47th on the State Business Tax Climate Index.

Other findings from the report include:

    • Combined corporate income would be taxed at 10.49 percent, the second-highest rate in the nation
    • Pass-through business income would be taxed at a top rate of 9.49 percent, the sixth-highest rate in the nation
    • The neighboring states of Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, and Missouri have all cut income taxes in recent years, while Illinois may be headed in the opposite direction
    • The proposal diverges sharply from ideal—or even typical—income tax structure by:
    o Omitting inflation indexing (resulting in “bracket creep”)
    o Creating a marriage penalty
    o Imposing a recapture provision which subjects the entirety of a taxpayer’s income to the top marginal rate once they reach that bracket
    • Should voters permit a graduated-rate income tax, there’s reason to believe that rates may climb even higher and that more taxpayers would be subjected to higher rates

“Were Pritzker’s proposal adopted,” writes Senior Policy Analyst Jared Walczak, “Illinois would trail its peers in just about every aspect of its tax code. If businesses and individuals are leaving the state now, these policies can only make the problem worse.”

The report is here. The full list of the group’s board is here.

* From Quentin Fulks with Vote Yes for Fairness…

It’s not surprising that a group that’s lauded Donald Trump’s corporate tax cuts is against a policy that will fix our broken and unfair tax system that forces hardworking families and struggling small businesses to pay the same tax rate as millionaires and billionaires. It means at least 97% of Illinoisans will receive a tax cut, including more than 95% of small businesses, while generating billions of dollars in additional revenue that can go toward funding our education system and lessening the property tax burden. Currently, thousands of lower-income minority families are fleeing Illinois each year in search of better opportunity, and by passing the Fair Tax we can create a state where they, and all of our families, can thrive.

* Meanwhile

Illinois does not currently tax retirement income, but there is nothing in the constitution preventing legislators from passing a law to start doing so.

“The myths and lies that are out there about that are obvious of where they’re coming from which are individuals who don’t want to pay their fair share,” [AARP Illinois State Director Bob Gallo] said. “The state could have raised or taxed retirement income all along and they have floated that trial balloon in the past and AARP stopped it in its tracks.”

Gallo said AARP will do the same should anyone instigate discussions about taxing retirement.

He said a graduated tax will help seniors, by helping to get the state on sounder fiscal footing after in recent years having social services that support vulnerable populations get gutted for lack of funding.

* And

Don Todd, president of the Illinois Alliance for Retried Americans said opponents have “spread lies about the fair tax.” He cited an ad featuring a woman who says she is a grandmother who says she won’t be able to afford to live in Illinois if the amendment passes because it will tax her retirement.

Opposition groups have cited comments made by Treasurer Mike Frerichs last summer to justify their ads suggesting retirement income could be taxed if the amendment is approved. Frerichs told a chamber of commerce that a graduated tax would allow taxation of very high pension incomes. However, he has emphasized he does not support taxing retirement income and Pritzker also opposes it.

Carmen Batances of Chicago, a member of Jane Addams Seniors in Action, said the flat tax “disproportionately harms low income communities of color in Illinois.”

“Many of our children are overtaxed with the flat tax,” she said. “I demand the false advertisements made to scare seniors be taken down immediately.”

…Adding… The entire @liz_uihlein account has been deleted. This could be a fake. Taking down the screen shot, etc. for now.

…Adding… Institute of Government and Public Affairs press release…

A new report from IGPA, titled How Often Do Graduated and Flat Rate States Change Their Tax Rates?, looks at what other states have done in the recent past.

“The debate over Illinois’ graduated tax proposal made me wonder, do other states change their personal income tax rates frequently?” said report author and IGPA Senior Scholar David Merriman. “It turns out the answer is no, and that goes for states with graduated-rate structures and flat-rate structures. Changes to personal income tax rates just aren’t that common.”

The report considers the personal income tax systems of all U.S. states and the District of Columbia from 2002 through 2019. Merriman, who also chairs IGPA’s Working Group on the Fiscal Health of Illinois, looked at 153 cases of annual tax rate dynamics in states with flat rates taxes and 592 cases of tax rate dynamics in states with graduated rate taxes.

In each year, Merriman examined whether any state tax rate changed. Out of 153 total cases, there were tax rate changes in 27 cases, or 17.76%, in states with a flat-rate tax. In graduated-rate states, out of 592 total cases, there were tax rate changes in 94 cases, or 15.85%. When rate changes were made, rate cuts were much more common than rate increases in both flat- and graduated-rate systems.

The full report is here.

*** UPDATE 1 *** The governor’s campaign folks are going with it…

In a since deleted tweet, Uline President Liz Uihlein announced her opposition to the Fair Tax, calling it a “handout” to her employees. These are the same employees she forced to come into work in a call center at the peak of the Coronavirus pandemic back in March. In the tweet, she expresses concern about having to “subsidize” her employees’ taxes, though her company received up to $18.6 million from the taxpayers of Wisconsin when it moved its facilities there in 2010. The Uihlein family is estimated to be worth $4 billion.

Uihlein’s husband, Richard Uihlein, has donated $100,000 to an organization fighting against the Fair Tax.

This tweet by Uihlein echoes a comment made by another opponent of the Fair Tax a few months ago, when Cindy Neal despicably called low income Illinoisans “takers” and high-income earners “makers” in an interview with WCIA’s Mark Maxwell.

“Opponents of the Fair Tax can try to hide behind millions of dollars in disingenuous ads and false rhetoric, but the truth will always come out,” said Quentin Fulks, Chairman of Vote Yes For Fairness. “Billionaires like Liz Uihlein and Ken Griffin don’t care about our middle and lower-income families. They only care about protecting their bottom line, which is why they’re fighting to stop the Fair Tax, which would make them finally pay their fair share and give a tax cut to 97% of Illinoisans. Time and again, opponents of the Fair Tax have made clear they’re only in it for themselves, and Vote Yes For Fairness is committed to making sure they don’t get away with their deceptive tactics.”

The alleged tweet…

*** UPDATE 2 *** As I suspected…

Rich,

I am writing to you to confirm that the alleged Liz Uihlein tweet that was the subject of your coverage yesterday was a fake account, and that Liz Uihlein has never had a twitter account. After being reported, the fake account has been removed by Twitter for impersonation. We respectfully request that you please remove this coverage of this issue or update it to indicate it was a fake account in no way related to Liz Uihlein.

Thank you,
Ellie

ELLIE O’NEIL
Mueller Communications LLC

  39 Comments      


Just had to hold that three-day cornhole tournament

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the blog yesterday

* Today

On behalf of the Christain County Health Department:

At the recent Greater Taylorville Chamber of Commerce Chilifest, an employee of the Capital City Cornhole company has tested positive for COVID-19. Capital City Cornhole organized and conducted the three-day bag tournaments. They held four tournaments total throughout the weekend (Oct 2-4, 2020) to include two at Chilifest, one at the American Legion, and one at Mity’s Pub. There were two hundred and thirty participants registered total at these events and numerous observers in attendance. Anyone in attendance at this event that mingled amongst the participants/employees are at risk for exposure. […]

The full extent of this mass exposure at such a large gathering is not possible to fully contact trace, so we encourage all participants/observers that may have been exposed to players/employees to self-monitor for symptoms. This event was not condoned by Christian County Public Health who had met with and advised officials.

  40 Comments      


Asked and answered

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

The Illinois Republican Party called on Governor JB Pritzker to demand State Rep. Chris Welch resign from the committee investigating House Speaker Michael Madigan.

In addition to his conflict of interest working with Madigan to place family members in state jobs, Republican members of the committee yesterday revealed that Welch had failed to publicly disclose that his former law firm was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars by ComEd while Welch was a partner.

“Welch should have disclosed these obvious conflicts of interest before accepting Madigan’s appointment as chair of this investigation,” ILGOP spokesperson Joe Hackler said. “We call on Governor Pritzker to demand Welch’s resignation from the committee immediately.”

I asked how the workings of a state legislative committee is a governor’s (any governor’s) business.

* The response…

What is the Governor’s business is a functioning state government, free from corruption and obvious conflicts of interest. He has the ability - the duty even - to push the people in the party that he leads to do the right thing. For months, the Governor has sat on his hands feebly begging via the press for Madigan to answer questions and then doing absolutely nothing to make it happen. At some point, one would think Madigan not providing the Governor (or any of us) any answers would make him change his tune. It hasn’t. Have you asked the Governor’s team whether he thinks Madigan should be issued a subpoena?

Pretty sure I have asked about this, but I also know that anyone who has ever launched a frontal attack on Madigan has only succeeded in uniting Madigan’s members against him or her. Also, while Bruce Rauner ran (twice) on the promise of confronting Madigan, Pritzker made no such promise to voters. Elections, as they say, have consequences.

Politics being politics, it’s totally fair to point out that the governor isn’t doing what you want him to do. Reality being reality, though, I wouldn’t expect the governor to be taking orders from the ILGOP anytime soon.

  22 Comments      


What’s up with the hit pieces?

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* What, exactly, is the issue here?

Jilted applicants for the next round of pot shop licenses called on Cook County leaders Tuesday to probe former pot regulator and current Commissioner Bridget Degnen’s potential ties to the cannabis industry.

Rickey Hendon, a former Democratic state senator and dispensary applicant, said officials should hold a hearing to question whether Degnen is connected to any group that applied or became a finalist for the 75 upcoming dispensary licenses. Degnen, the former deputy director of medical cannabis at the state agency that issues dispensary licenses, pitched herself as an expert last year as she offered paid application help to two individuals tied to a group seeking dispensary licenses, the Sun-Times has learned.

Degnen, who didn’t respond to requests for comment Tuesday, has refused to answer any questions about her alleged work in the industry.

I’ve read both of the stories about this and I just don’t get it.

* And “flooded” with $19,200? Really?

Companies and individuals involved in the weed business have flooded her campaign coffers with at least $19,200 in donations, according to a Sun-Times analysis.

  22 Comments      


Today’s absolute must-read

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Take some time today and read all of this article from The Atlantic. It convincingly upends some thinking about our approach to COVID-19 by looking at what other countries are doing right. For instance

There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. […]

This highly skewed, imbalanced distribution means that an early run of bad luck with a few super-spreading events, or clusters, can produce dramatically different outcomes even for otherwise similar countries. […]

[Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St. Andrews] identifies “prolonged contact, poor ventilation, [a] highly infectious person, [and] crowding” as the key elements for a super-spreader event. Super-spreading can also occur indoors beyond the six-feet guideline, because SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen causing COVID-19, can travel through the air and accumulate, especially if ventilation is poor. … But we don’t need to know all the sufficient factors that go into a super-spreading event to avoid what seems to be a necessary condition most of the time: many people, especially in a poorly ventilated indoor setting, and especially not wearing masks. As Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida, told me, given the huge numbers associated with these clusters, targeting them would be very effective in getting our transmission numbers down. […]

Take Sweden, an alleged example of the great success or the terrible failure of herd immunity without lockdowns, depending on whom you ask. In reality, although Sweden joins many other countries in failing to protect elderly populations in congregate-living facilities, its measures that target super-spreading have been stricter than many other European countries. Although it did not have a complete lockdown, as Kucharski pointed out to me, Sweden imposed a 50-person limit on indoor gatherings in March, and did not remove the cap even as many other European countries eased such restrictions after beating back the first wave. […]

Once a country has too many outbreaks, it’s almost as if the pandemic switches into “flu mode,” as Scarpino put it, meaning high, sustained levels of community spread even though a majority of infected people may not be transmitting onward.

* Contact tracing

…Japan focused on the overdispersion impact from early on, likens his country’s approach to looking at a forest and trying to find the clusters, not the trees. Meanwhile, he believes, the Western world was getting distracted by the trees, and got lost among them. To fight a super-spreading disease effectively, policy makers need to figure out why super-spreading happens, and they need to understand how it affects everything, including our contact-tracing methods and our testing regimes. […]

Right now, many states and nations engage in what is called forward or prospective contact tracing. Once an infected person is identified, we try to find out with whom they interacted afterward so that we can warn, test, isolate, and quarantine these potential exposures. But that’s not the only way to trace contacts. And, because of overdispersion, it’s not necessarily where the most bang for the buck lies. Instead, in many cases, we should try to work backwards to see who first infected the subject.

Because of overdispersion, most people will have been infected by someone who also infected other people, because only a small percentage of people infect many at a time, whereas most infect zero or maybe one person. As Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist and the author of the book The Rules of Contagion, explained to me, if we can use retrospective contact tracing to find the person who infected our patient, and then trace the forward contacts of the infecting person, we are generally going to find a lot more cases compared with forward-tracing contacts of the infected patient, which will merely identify potential exposures, many of which will not happen anyway, because most transmission chains die out on their own. […]

Even in an overdispersed pandemic, it’s not pointless to do forward tracing to be able to warn and test people, if there are extra resources and testing capacity. But it doesn’t make sense to do forward tracing while not devoting enough resources to backward tracing and finding clusters, which cause so much damage.

Makes sense.

* Testing

In an overdispersed regime, identifying transmission events (someone infected someone else) is more important than identifying infected individuals. Consider an infected person and their 20 forward contacts—people they met since they got infected. Let’s say we test 10 of them with a cheap, rapid test and get our results back in an hour or two. This isn’t a great way to determine exactly who is sick out of that 10, because our test will miss some positives, but that’s fine for our purposes. If everyone is negative, we can act as if nobody is infected, because the test is pretty good at finding negatives. However, the moment we find a few transmissions, we know we may have a super-spreader event, and we can tell all 20 people to assume they are positive and to self-isolate—if there are one or two transmissions, there are likely more, exactly because of the clustering behavior. Depending on age and other factors, we can test those people individually using PCR tests, which can pinpoint who is infected, or ask them all to wait it out. […]

Scarpino told me that overdispersion also enhances the utility of other aggregate methods, such as wastewater testing, especially in congregate settings like dorms or nursing homes, allowing us to detect clusters without testing everyone. Wastewater testing also has low sensitivity; it may miss positives if too few people are infected, but that’s fine for population-screening purposes. If the wastewater testing is signaling that there are likely no infections, we do not need to test everyone to find every last potential case. However, the moment we see signs of a cluster, we can rapidly isolate everyone, again while awaiting further individualized testing via PCR tests, depending on the situation.

The White House, as it turns out, misused rapid testing on individuals. Because the tests miss so many positive results, they should only be used to catch outbreaks among groups of people, who can then be individually tested.

* So, to sum up: Avoid indoor areas, keep the occupancy restrictions in place, stress ventilation improvements, concentrate on finding the sources of outbreaks and use rapid and aggregate tests to quickly locate developing problems and then use PCR tests to pinpoint individual infections. But don’t take my word for it, go read the whole thing. There is also some eye-opening info about schools.

  61 Comments      


Open thread

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* CBS

Johnny Nash, an American reggae and pop music singer-songwriter, best known in the US for the 1972 hit, “I Can See Clearly Now,” died Tuesday at his home, his son confirmed to CBS Los Angeles. He was 80.

Born in Houston, Nash started singing as a child at Progressive New Hope Baptist Church. He made his major label debut in 1957 with the single “A Teenager Sings the Blues.”

His first chart hit was a cover of Doris Day’s “A Very Special Love,” in early 1958, but his claim to fame was the 1972 reggae-influenced single “I Can See Clearly Now.” The single sold over one million copies, reached No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 Nov. 4, 1972 and remained atop the chart for four weeks.

* His song got a whole lot of people through a whole lot of pain, including me

Here is that rainbow I’ve been praying for

Please keep your discussion local and be kind to each other. Thanks.

  12 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Wednesday, Oct 7, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

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« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* News coverage roundup: Entire Chicago Board of Education to resign (Updated x2)
* Mayor to announce school board appointments on Monday
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Question of the day (Updated)
* Ahead of mass school board resignation, some mayoral opponents ask Pritzker to step in, but he says he has no legal authority (Updated x5)
* Governor’s office says Senate Republicans are “spreading falsehoods” with their calls for DCFS audit (Updated)
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