* Illinois State Board of Elections…
With record-setting vote-by-mail volume in the 2020 general election, the Illinois State Board of Elections advises media and voters to be aware that unofficial vote totals reported on election night may change significantly in the two weeks to follow.
As of Nov. 2, Illinois’ 108 local election authorities reported up to 587,000 mail ballots that had not yet been returned by voters. While some of these ballots will arrive in time to be processed and included in election night reporting, many are likely to arrive after Election Day and be added to unofficial totals. Illinois allows ballots that are postmarked no later than Election Day to arrive and be counted for two weeks afterward, so totals could change through Nov. 17.
The Illinois State Board of Elections will regularly update the statewide totals for mail ballots on its website, but does not report any election results until it certifies the vote on Dec. 4. Unofficial results before certification may be obtained from local election authorities.
The following background information may be useful to news media covering election results in the two weeks to come:
• As of Nov.2, Illinois election authorities had sent 2.35 million ballots to voters and 1.76 million of those ballots had been returned by voters. (The complete report, including totals from individual election authorities, is attached following this release.)
• With 1.83 million in-person early votes cast as of Nov. 2, Illinois had cast nearly 3.6 million votes before Election Day.
• In 2016, voters cast 370,740 votes by mail and 1,520,694 in-person early votes, for a total of 1,891,434 votes cast before election day.
• Illinois has more than 8.3 million registered voters for the 2020 general election, which is an all- time record. Unofficial pre-election reports indicate that 43 percent of registered voters have already voted.
• The constitutional amendment on this year’s ballot can pass if it receives 60 percent approval from voters who vote on the question or a simple majority of affirmative votes among all ballots cast in the election. Because of this formula, the fate of the amendment may not be known on election night even when accounting for mail ballots not yet returned.
• As mail ballots arrive in the days after Nov. 3, it is likely that close races may see leads change as results are reported. Reporters should check with local election authorities for updated vote counts and make readers, viewers and listeners aware of why these numbers are changing.
• The certification schedule after Election Day is as follows:
o Nov.17:Local election authorities must complete counting of mail and provisional ballots
o Nov. 24: Local election authorities must transmit results to the State Board of Elections
o Dec. 4: State Board of Elections certifies the vote and publishes official results
• From 1976-2016, turnout in presidential elections in Illinois has averaged 73 percent. If statewide turnout for this election matches 2016’s 70.56 percent, 5.87 million votes will be cast.
• Voters needing assistance locating polling places or with other voting-related questions or concerns on Election Day can call the State Board of Elections at (217) 782-4141 or (312) 814- 6440. The Board of Elections website, elections.il.gov, will feature a special landing page for voter assistance beginning at midnight on Nov. 3.
The attachment is here.
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Everyone has their own priorities
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From today’s press conference…
Q: Governor, can I just ask one more question? It’s about the American flag, it’s about the American flag because there’s a man who’s a World War II vet, he’s also a Korean War vet, he wants to know why the flag is still at half-staff. I know you ordered all the municipalities to put it to half-staff in March. It’s been eight months now. When can we see it at full-staff? [crosstalk about something to do with election day]
A: We’ve lost more than three 9/11’s in nine months. More than three 9/11’s. More than 9,700 people have passed away. We are losing dozens of people every single day. So, yes, I think during this pandemic, I think until we get through this pandemic, I think it’s the right thing to do to recognize the terrible loss that so many people, who can’t even go to a funeral sometimes for a relative or a friend, this is one way that we can honor all of them.
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COVID-19 roundup
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Click here for a PowerPoint presentation that the governor intends to talk about today.
* Hal Dardick at the Tribune…
As Illinois finally nears its goal of employing 3,800 people to track down and warn the contacts of people infected with COVID-19, experts say that number may no longer be sufficient to help control the virus.
That’s because contact tracing — which aims to reduce disease spread by identifying and isolating people who could be infectious — works best when infection rates are relatively low. The state is seeing record numbers of daily confirmed cases.
“Contact tracing is not a silver bullet, and it can be overwhelmed very quickly with an expanding epidemic, because cases will appear and transmission will occur much more quickly than a health department can hire contact tracers,” said Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “So, there is kind of a threshold at which contact tracing becomes much less effective.
“And so, what we need to do in those cases is use other interventions like enforcing mask use and physical distancing and shutting down indoor areas.”
Watson is part of a team at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and National Public Radio that has tracked the status of contact tracing in the United States. They concluded in a recent report that once a state is logging more than 10 new COVID-19 cases daily for every 100,000 residents, contact tracers become overwhelmed.
Illinois has quadruple that number of new cases per 100K residents.
* Beware antigen test results…
As rapid tests are becoming more widely available, delivering results in minutes in doctor’s offices, nursing homes, schools and even the White House, officials warn of a significant undercount, blurring the spread.
Officials say that antigen tests, which are faster than polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests but less able to detect low levels of the virus, are an important tool for limiting the spread. But they caution that with inconsistent public reporting, the case undercount may worsen.
“We want to be sure that we’re not now saying, ‘there’s no disease,’ when there is lots of disease. All that’s happened is that the science with which we identify it has evolved,” said Janet Hamilton, the executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, the group that helps the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention define cases of the coronavirus.
* Tribune live blog headlines…
Chicago’s jazz clubs struggle to stay afloat
National Guard arriving Monday at some Indiana nursing homes hard hit by COVID-19 cases
COVID-19 restrictions take effect in east-central Illinois
Chicago health officials urge people to get flu shots
As the pandemic wears on, more working moms are forced to quit their jobs, and the impact of the ‘shecession’ could be long-lasting
* Sun-Times live blog headlines…
Surging COVID-19 numbers spark Election Day concerns for polling places
COVID-19 recruiting tips for high school basketball players
Hospitals strain to find new nurses as COVID-19 rates rise
10 more chief judge’s employees test positive for the coronavirus, including 7 at juvenile detention building
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A look ahead
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I think Dan Vock is mostly right about what would happen if House Speaker Michael Madigan picks up a significant number of seats tomorrow…
It could make it easier for Democrats to legislate in the upcoming session. The COVID-19 pandemic has strained Illinois’s already precarious financial situation, and keeping the budget in the black next year could require unpopular program cuts or even tax hikes. In the past, Madigan has often sought Republican votes for political cover when passing politically contentious measures. But Republicans blame Madigan and Democrats for Illinois’s troubles already, and more Democrats in the House would give GOP lawmakers less leverage in those negotiations.
Politically, adding more Democrats in the suburbs could shore up the party’s strength at a time when Democrats have been losing seats outside of the Chicago metro area.
More Democrats in the House would give Madigan a freer hand when it comes time next year to redraw the legislative district lines for the next decade. There is widespread concern among Democrats that this year’s Census will undercount the number of residents who are Black, Hispanic, immigrants, low-income or otherwise hard to reach. If so, it would sap Democrats’ strength in legislative bodies like the Illinois House. But if Madigan’s Democrats have more territory to work with, they can cede some seats while still holding a commanding majority.
Adding Democrats to the Illinois House would also give Madigan an easier path to round up the 60 votes he needs to continue as speaker of the House. Madigan has been speaker, except for a two-year stint in the 1990s, since 1983, and it seems unlikely that he would lose that post soon. But eight House Democrats have already called for him to resign his leadership post, and another seven have said he should step down if the allegations in the ComEd corruption investigation are true. If all of them defected, Madigan presumably would only have 59 votes for speaker. Adding more Democrats to the chamber would give him more possible votes to pick up.
And this is most certainly correct…
Finally, Springfield insiders speculate that weakening the Republican caucus could also be a form of political payback by the speaker, after Republican Leader Jim Durkin initiated a process to try to remove Madigan from the House chamber over the allegations in the ComEd investigation. The power company admitted in federal court that it arranged for jobs, contracts and payoffs to people in Madigan’s circle in order to gain favor with the speaker. But federal prosecutors have not charged Madigan with a crime.
But a question that isn’t often asked is: What happens if Madigan’s gains are on the “Meh” side?
Discuss.
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This reminds me of a story…
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* One day when I was a kid, my mom dropped her (then) four sons off at Sunday school and dispatched herself to a local diner to quietly sip a cup of coffee before church.
All of a sudden, in walks her four boys who proceeded to noisily join her at her table, unceremoniously ending her rare and precious moment to herself. Unbeknownst to all of us, the time had rolled back an hour the night before and Sunday school hadn’t yet begun. So, rather than find something else to do, we decided to go hang out with our beloved mother. Thankfully, my mom has a great sense of humor and we all laughed about the mistake. No blood, no foul.
* I bring this up because I yet again forgot to change the timestamp on the blog over the weekend. I can’t really adjust it now because doing so will mess up comments, so I’ll get to it tonight.
Sorry, but it kinda runs in the family.
Also, I love you, Mom. I remember that day more than any Sunday school class I ever attended. Thanks for being you.
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* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 6,222 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 20 additional deaths.
Champaign County: 1 male 60s
Cook County: 1 female 50s, 1 female 60s, 1 male 60s, 2 females 70s, 2 males 70s, 2 males 80s, 1 female 0ver 100
DuPage County: 1 male 80s
Iroquois County: 1 male 80s
Lake County: 1 male 80s
Mason County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 90s
Monroe County: 1 female 90s, 1 female over 100
Piatt County: 1 female 60s
Will County: 1 male 90s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 423,502 cases, including 9,810 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 68,118 specimens for a total 7,876,421. As of last night, 3,371 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 722 patients were in the ICU and 298 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 26 – November 1 is 8.1%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 26, 2020 – November 1, 2020 is 9.7%.
Case positivity and test positivity rate are both relevant and offer insight into the bigger COVID-19 picture. Case positivity helps us understand whether changes in the number of confirmed cases is due to more testing or due to more infections. Whereas, test positivity accounts for repeated testing and helps us understand how the virus is spreading in the population over time.
*All data are provisional and will change. In order to rapidly report COVID-19 information to the public, data are being reported in real-time. Information is constantly being entered into an electronic system and the number of cases and deaths can change as additional information is gathered. For health questions about COVID-19, call the hotline at 1-800-889-3931 or email dph.sick@illinois.gov.
* Sunday…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 6,980 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 35 additional deaths.
Alexander County: 1 female 70s
Bureau County: 1 female 90s
Cook County: 4 females 70s, 4 males 70s, 1 female 80s, 2 males 80s, 1 female 90s, 2 males 90s, 1 male over 100
DuPage County: 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s
Henry County: 1 male 60s, 1 male 80s
Lake County: 1 female 70s, 1 female 90s
Macon County: 1 male 50s, 1 female 80s
Madison County: 1 male 70s
Montgomery County: 1 female 90s
Peoria County: 1 male 80s
Pike County: 1 male 90s
Sangamon County: 1 female 90s
Will County: 1 male 60s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s
Woodford County: 2 females 80s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 417,280 cases, including 9,792 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 78,458 specimens for a total 7,808,303. As of last night, 3,294 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 692 patients were in the ICU and 284 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 25 – October 31 is 8.0%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 25, 2020 – October 31, 2020 is 9.4%.
* Saturday…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 7,899 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 46 additional deaths.
Adams County: 1 male 70s
Boone County: 1 male 60s
Bureau County: 1 male 80s
Carroll County: 1 male 80s
Cook County: 1 female 40s, 1 female 50s, 2 females 60s, 3 males 60s, 1 female 70s, 5 males 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s, 1 female 100+
DuPage County: 1 female 80s
Kane County: 1 male 50s, 1 male 70s, 2 females 80s, 1 female 90s
Lake County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 90s
LaSalle County: 1 female 60s
Macon County: 1 male 90s
Madison County: 1 female 80s
Marion County: 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s
Mason County: 1 male 80s, 1 female 100+
McLean County: 1 female 80s
Monroe County: 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s
Sangamon County: 1 female 80s
Vermilion County: 1 female 60s
Wayne County: 1 female 90s
Whiteside County: 1 female 70s
Will County: 1 female 60s, 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s
Winnebago County: 1 male 70s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 410,300 cases, including 9,757 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 92,636 specimens for a total 7,729,845. As of last night, 3,228 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 680 patients were in the ICU and 290 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 24 – October 30 is 7.5%. This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests. Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July. Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests. On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 24, 2020 – October 30, 2020 is 9.0%.
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* Tribune…
An hourlong virtual rally in support of a proposed state constitutional amendment to change Illinois’ income tax system to a graduated-rate tax was sidetracked Friday night by Cook County President Toni Preckwinkle delivering a lengthy pitch for State’s Attorney Kim Foxx’s reelection and for voters to reject two judges up for retention.
She only spoke about Foxx for like two minutes.
* Hannah Meisel…
In the dueling campaigns for and against Gov. JB Pritzker’s signature plan to implement a graduated income tax structure in Illinois are the echoes of past attempts at tax reform.
The players have changed and the policy proposals are different, but what remains constant are both Illinois’ underlying structural revenue imbalance and the element of mistrust of Springfield politicians.
The Nov. 3 vote to amend Illinois’ constitution and allow for a graduated income tax — instead of the flat income tax structure the state has had since 1969 — is not just the culmination of Pritzker’s three-year-long campaign for the change he vowed as a gubernatorial candidate, but also the reverberation of decades of fiscal policy and messaging.
Trips back to the 1990s, the 1970s and the 1930s may be instructive.
It’s a really good piece (of course), so go take a look. You might learn something.
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Illinois recovery barely perceptible
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Institute of Government and Public Affairs…
The U of I Flash Index in October continued its slow, steady recovery from the low point of the post-COVID-19 period. The October index went up to 95.6 from its 95.1 level in September, but the economy is still well below its strength prior to the pandemic.
The impact of the recent resurgence of the virus is not captured in the October data. “The October Flash Index obviously comes at the cusp of potential changes related to the election and the virus. We could see continued, gradual improvement, or another drop in the index, depending on the availability of a vaccine or the possibility of further mandated business closures,” said University of Illinois economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the monthly index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs. “The short-term impact of the election will likely be less dramatic than many people believe since the economy has a momentum that is difficult to change.”
The Illinois unemployment rate continued its decline from 11.0 percent to 10.2 percent over the last month, but it is still 2.3 percentage points above the national level, but 6.2 percentage points below its April highpoint. After adjusting for inflation, sales and corporate tax receipts were up from the same month last year while individual income tax receipts were down slightly, continuing the pattern of last month. See the full Flash Index Archive.
The Flash Index is normally a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through October 31, 2020. Ad hoc adjustments have been made to deal with the timing of the tax receipts resulting from state and Federal changes in payment dates beginning in March.
Accompanying graph…
The Illinois Flash Index was stuck in the mid 90s for about two years after the 9/11 attacks. That stretch pretty much killed all the budget progress made during the previous decade and we haven’t recovered since.
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* From Saturday’s Decatur Herald & Review…
HSHS St. Mary’s Hospital and Decatur Memorial Hospital have suspended visitors for inpatient care effective Saturday due to the high number of COVID-19 cases throughout Central Illinois.
“COVID-19 is spreading throughout our community. Many people may have COVID-19, and could be contagious before they are showing symptoms,” said Dr. Raj Govindaiah, chief medical officer of Memorial Health System. “Our mission is to improve the health of the people and communities we serve, and this policy will allow us to do that.”
Exceptions will be allowed with approval in areas such as the emergency department, obstetrics, pediatrics, certain outpatient procedures and surgeries, as well as for those who may be in end-of-life care or to support a patient with an intellectual disability.
* Today’s Decatur Herald & Review…
Everyone’s East End Grill restaurant parked within the confines of Decatur Airport is now taxiing to an enviable position: it can cheerfully ignore Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s orders to shutdown indoor dining service starting Monday.
That’s because the new, stricter shut down rules for this region aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19 don’t apply to eateries that are deemed part of essential businesses, like airports. […]
He got no arguments from his Sunday morning, post-church dining crowd. Cyndi Haynes and her husband Butch were both enjoying fried breakfasts they said tasted as good as the food’s looks and aroma suggested, and were also deeply satisfied with the attitude of their host.
The construct of that restaurant story is weird. The business has an exemption because of its location, so it doesn’t have to “ignore” anything except, of course, the growing problem at the town’s hospitals.
Anyway, maybe also send that reporter over to a hospital commissary to see what the docs have to say?
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* SJ-R…
Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder has called for an emergency city council meeting Wednesday evening to discuss COVID-19 and the state mitigation measures that went into effect Sunday, which include the suspension of indoor dining and bar service. […]
But Langfelder — worried about the impact the shutdown could have on local restaurants — has been openly critical of the added restrictions. He has advocated in recent weeks for a “stair-step” approach that would allow indoor dining to remain open during mitigations. […]
Twenty-two restaurant owners from the county filed a lawsuit Friday in Sangamon County Circuit Court against Gov. JB Pritzker seeking relief from the order.
Others followed the governor’s order and closed for indoor service. And a new Facebook group called “Support Responsible Dining in Springfield IL” was created on Sunday to encourage people to support the businesses following Pritzker’s order. The page already has more than 300 likes as of Monday morning.
I went over this with subscribers earlier today, so I’ll just let that stand. Suffice to say that a Sangamon County judge already dealt with this issue back in May. The full list of restaurants filing the suit is here.
From the attorney general’s office…
The plaintiffs have not served the defendants or sent us a copy of what they have filed.
* Meanwhile…
The City of Springfield received a $799,000 federal CARES Act grant at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of that, $200,000 was set aside for small business grants, but to date, none of those have been distributed.
Extra community development block grants were also planned for low-interest small business loans, but Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder said a public hearing must be held before those are acted upon. […]
Another CARES Act grant in the amount of $700,000 is also coming to Springfield, but how that money will be spent is set to be determined at a public meeting at 3:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 4, in the Municipal Building. The meeting will also be available to view over Zoom.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the Sangamon County Department of Public Health…
There is currently a long line for COVID-19 testing in our SCDPH parking lot. Please use Singer Ave. to Shackelford Dr. (behind JC Penny) when getting in line. Any one who is in the testing line by 5:00pm will be tested today.
COVID-19 testing will also be offered tomorrow from 9:00am-5:00pm in our parking lot, 2833 South Grand Avenue East Springfield, IL 62703.
Seems bad.
*** UPDATE 2 *** I asked SIU School of Medicine for a statement about Mayor Langfelder’s comments…
This is a difficult time for public health, municipal and business leaders. We know that all groups have the health and well-being of all at the top of their priorities. We now face very difficult situations for which there are no easy choices, as we simultaneously endeavor to save lives and promote our livelihood. These issues are complex and multifactorial.
The SIU School of Medicine rejects the simplicity of a false dichotomy that pits public health against economic well-being. We can and should protect both by following the best medical and economic evidence and the public health guidelines designed to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. We urge compliance with mitigation strategies while we all engage in active, multilateral dialog between the leaders of business, government entities, academic institutions, and community organizations. Together we can strive for the best actions for our citizens and communities.”
Jerry Kruse, MD, MSPH
Dean and Provost of SIU School of Medicine
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Question of the day
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* What are your election day plans and how are they different from previous years?
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Today’s must-read
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Katlyn Smith at the Daily Herald talked to several suburban medical professionals and put together a really strong story about what’s going on. It’s not nearly as long as our usual “must-reads,” but it’s no less important…
As Illinois sets another single-day record for COVID-19 infections, hospitals are preparing to feel the strain of a fall and winter surge after weeks of steadily rising patient numbers.
Some medical centers are tightening visitor restrictions. Hospital administrators are hoping they won’t have to postpone elective surgeries again. But national trends are leaving suburban hospital officials anxious.
“I am extremely worried about staff,” said Dr. Sanjeeb Khatua, chief physician executive and COVID-19 incident commander at Edward-Elmhurst Health.
Again, go read the whole thing.
* Related…
* Southern Illinois Healthcare loses one of its own front-line employees to COVID-19 as hospitalizations increase: Within days, her health rapidly declined. Her lungs collapsed and were bleeding, her liver enlarged, her kidneys shut down and she went into respiratory arrest, according to her best friend, Dottie Nikolich, of Christopher. “She suffered greatly with this,” Nikolich said.
* Dr. Anthony Fauci warns US faces ‘a whole lot of hurt’ this winter due to surging COVID-19 cases
* October Coronavirus Cases Climb In Oak Lawn - COVID-19 cases are beginning to surge in parts of suburban Cook County as the state initiates further precautions to help stop the spread.
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* To sum this up, if the Fair Tax fails and President Trump is reelected and/or the Republicans maintain control of the US Senate, and a flat tax hike can’t be achieved by early January, then the state is heading to the Fed’s window…
Illinois, the only U.S. state to borrow from the Federal Reserve, will likely have to tap the central bank again to help close its $4.1 billion deficit if federal aid doesn’t come through and voters reject a ballot measure to raise taxes on the rich, according to Governor J.B. Pritzker.
The cash-strapped state sold $1.2 billion in short-term debt in June to the Fed to help close its fiscal 2020 budget gap. While Pritzker is optimistic that stimulus will arrive at some point and voters next month will approve his signature agenda item to end Illinois’s flat income tax, he’s prepared to use the Fed’s Municipal Liquidity Facility, a lifeline for state and local governments, for a second time.
“If there is no support from the federal government or there’s no fair tax, and so given that situation, we would certainly, for some of that, we would need to go to the MLF borrowing facility, but we would also implement cuts,” Pritzker, a billionaire Democrat, said in an interview. He’s asked state agencies to submit proposals for 5 percent spending cuts this year and another 10 percent for fiscal 2022.
Illinois isn’t alone in its woes. States are facing about a $200 billion revenue shortfall from fiscal 2020 through 2022, according to Moody’s Analytics, but Illinois has little cushion. The state has more than $8 billion of unpaid bills, about $137 billion of unfunded pension liabilities, and its rainy day fund has $858,873. Its borrowing penalty is the highest among states tracked by Bloomberg, with its credit rating only one step above junk.
Thoughts?
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* Lynn Sweet…
With Illinois not in play in the presidential contest, Gov. J.B. Pritzker has emerged as one of the biggest donors to the Democratic Party of Wisconsin — in a crucial battleground state that could help tip the White House to Donald Trump or Joe Biden. […]
On the federal side, $2,256,300 to the Senate Majority PAC and various giving to help elect House Democrats: $256,300 total to Nancy Pelosi Victory Fund; $1 million to the House Majority PAC and $259,100 total to the Cheri Bustos Victory Fund. Bustos is the chair of the Democratic House political operation.
Pritzker also gave $1.5 million to Priorities USA Action, a main pro-Biden super PAC, and $721,300 to the Biden Victory Fund, which was dispersed to a variety of swing state Democratic parties.
On the state party front, Pritzker gave $250,000 to the Michigan Democratic State Central Committee and $2,525,000 to the Democratic Party of Wisconsin Federal Account.
Quentin Fulks, Pritzker’s top political adviser said, “Wisconsin is the closest battleground state in the Midwest” and Pritzker “wanted to ensure that Trump did not win there.”
Emphasis added.
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* The Hill…
The top super PAC backing House Democrats is dropping more than $1 million into a last-minute media blitz defending the chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in a sign that her campaign for a new term is not guaranteed.
The House Majority PAC has reported spending almost $1 million on airtime and another $30,000 on digital advertising on behalf of Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), who heads the DCCC, according to filings made with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Democratic sources in Washington and Illinois said two Republican polls released earlier this month that showed Bustos only narrowly ahead of her Republican rival, attorney Esther Joy King, were catalysts for the late spending blitz. […]
“She’s calling everyone in [Democratic] politics in Illinois to make sure nothing goes sideways. Call time, Zoom fundraisers, the works,” said one Illinois Democratic strategist. “She’s spooked.”
“Washington Republicans have spent nearly $1.5 million in attack ads against Cheri because she represents a district Donald Trump won and is leading the strategy to keep the Speaker’s gavel out of Kevin McCarthy’s hands,” Denise Mousouris, Bustos’s campaign manager, said in an email.
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What’s Ken Griffin’s endgame?
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
Chicago billionaire Ken Griffin has spent $53.75 million to convince Illinoisans to reject a proposed graduated income tax this year.
Illinois currently has a flat income tax. Everyone pays the same rate, rich or poor. Gov. J.B. Pritzker campaigned heavily on increasing taxes on upper-income voters and followed through by convincing the General Assembly to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot. The billionaire Democrat has since spent $56.5 million of his own money to promote the change.
Pritzker is regularly asked about his proposal, but aside from a couple of public statements, Griffin has been quiet. So, I’ve been asking for an interview for weeks, but to no avail.
Griffin’s apparently willing to let the ads he’s paying for speak for themselves. […]
I really wanted to ask him about his endgame, though.
Griffin backed Gov. Bruce Rauner to the hilt. Rauner’s plan was to create a massive crisis in order to force serious structural change. So, is Griffin now trying to create a new crisis by shutting off a revenue stream? Is this a way to starve the budget in order to force the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to address some sort of new pension reforms?
Go read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
For generations now, Chicago has had its own separate set of state laws for just about every topic under the sun. The city’s mayor is allowed to appoint the school board, Chicago has its own “working cash fund” law, the state’s mayoral veto law does not apply to the city and Chicago has a unique exemption allowing it to deduct money from worker paychecks.
From big to archaic, the list is almost endless.
So, when you’ve grown accustomed to doing it your own way for a century or so, you may start thinking you’re a special case in literally everything. And that seems to be what happened last week.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot told reporters she hoped to change Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s mind about imposing the same public health mitigations on the city as the state has imposed on several other regions, including suburban Cook County, and said the two ought to be “in lockstep” on any “new restrictions.”
The mitigations mainly involve shutting down indoor dining and booze-drinking at taverns.
The moment to address this, of course, was months ago when Pritzker laid out the new plan and the boundaries of the new public health districts. Chicago was given its own district back in mid-July (ironically, at the behest of the suburbs), but not its own rules. The city, in fact, imposed even tighter restrictions on restaurants, taverns, parks, beaches, etc. than the rest of the state, which is allowed under Pritzker plan.
But the city and the mayor have known all along that local governments cannot impose looser regulations than the state’s.
And, really, how would DuPage County respond if Chicago was given a special pass on indoor restaurant dining? Not well, I assure you. And Winnebago County denizens would be rightly upset if Chicagoans could drink inside their local taverns and they could not.
Complying with the mayor’s demands would undermine the governor everywhere else in the state. And he’s got enough of that problem as it is.
Look, we know that state mitigation works if regions stick to the program.
Why? Simple.
The Metro East area as well as the region encompassing Will and Kankakee counties both eventually worked their way out of the stricter protocols. Those successes alone should be enough to prove that the spread is slowed when indoor dining and drinking are curtailed. But coverage follows conflict, so news consumers aren’t getting that message. Instead, it’s all about disagreements between political leaders and the furious anger of the hospitality industry.
But both of those previously successful regions are now right back in mitigation. Restaurants and taverns that survived the first mitigation round are now having to go through this nightmare all over again. Businesses in first-time mitigation and those in regions about to be subjected to the limits look at their colleagues and are justly terrified for their futures.
While there’s no doubt that indoor dining, indoor tavern drinking, etc. do, indeed, spread the virus, people should be forgiven for thinking it’s unfair to put the onus completely on those specific businesses — particularly at a time when the federal government is showing absolutely zero interest in helping the businesses cope and the main complainers about Illinois’ rules (other than Lightfoot) are unwilling to vigorously demand federal action.
In order to make this more “fair” and spread out the pain instead of focusing the responsibility, everyday people would be required to do their own part.
Chicago’s contact tracing program shows that “small social gatherings” are major contributors to the spread. “(W)here we’re seeing the greatest challenges is in people’s homes, in social settings that are not public,” Lightfoot said.
But if you think people are upset about the restaurant and tavern situation, try ordering them to avoid all contact with their friends and families.
Yikes.
So, the choices are between ginning up either a horrible backlash with horrible economic consequences or a horrific and widespread public backlash that could conceivably jeopardize everything. Or let it all burn, and Pritzker is not going to do that.
So, “horrible” seems the only do-able choice.
And, make no mistake, without help from D.C., it will truly get horrible for a lot of very good people.
* Related…
* Two McHenry County judges deny separate lawsuits seeking restraining order against Pritzker’s indoor dining ban
* All 11 IDPH regions under IDPH mitigation rules as of November 4
* Springfield has distributed no small business relief grants to date
* Enforcing mitigations from Pritzker. How much power does Mayor Langfelder truly hold?
* Springfield bar, restaurant owners uncertain about future as mitigations begin Sunday
* East Peoria Will Not Enforce New COVID Restrictions, Mayor Says
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Open thread
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My sentiments exactly…
Keep it local, keep it polite and have some fun. Thanks.
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