Rauner oppo watch
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Click here, and here for your late afternoon reading pleasure.
…Adding… More just came over the transom. Wanna guess who owned this company, which hired Illinois Statehouse lobbyists to defeat a ban on its product?…
More than 50 countries have banned use of the chemical; In the U.S., the Environmental Protection Agency prohibits all agricultural uses of lindane. Oddly, it’s still OK to rub it into children’s hair.
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Zorn nails it again
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This is the kind of insanity that the people hyping the Great Ebola Scare of 2014 are causing…
School officials in Strong, Maine, have placed an elementary teacher on a 21-day paid leave of absence out of fears that the teacher was exposed to the Ebola virus during a recent trip to an educational seminar in Dallas, where a man recently died of the disease and two of the nurses who cared for him were infected.
So even though the seminar was held more than 9 miles from Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital where Thomas Eric Duncan was treated and died, and even though Ebola is transmitted only by direct contact with the bodily fluids of symptomatic patients, administrators in Maine acted “out of an abundance of caution” and sent the teacher home.
Even so… A quarantine of Texas… Hmm…
Nah. Wouldn’t work. Way too many of my favorite musicians and bands live there. Not to mention my brother and his family.
* Zorn continues with an Illinois angle…
In Illinois, Rock Island County has asked a family to quarantine itself because their 21-year-old daughter has just returned from Liberia, even though she is exhibiting no symptoms and has said she was not exposed to Ebola.
The combination of hysteria and ignorance is breathtaking.
How hard is Ebola to catch? Duncan’s fiancee and family members didn’t catch it from him even though he was actively symptomatic in their small apartment in Dallas. They and some three dozen other people who had been in contact with Duncan in the early days of his illness cleared the three-week waiting period Monday and are no longer considered at risk.
How easy is Ebola to control if there is a small outbreak? Well, impoverished, developing Nigeria saw 20 cases in recent months — including eight deaths — but on Monday the World Health Organization declared the nation Ebola-free.
I noticed Drudge is practically Ebola-free this afternoon. Since even that notorious drama queen has finally calmed down a little, maybe everybody else can, too.
And I’m looking at you, Bobby Schilling - the first and what I think may be the only Illinois candidate desperate enough to play the Ebola card.
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* Some powerful trial lawyers have already forced one Illinois Supreme Court Justice to recuse himself from hearing the appeal of a $10.1 billion judgement against Philip Morris, but they haven’t been able to convince Justice Lloyd Karmeier to back away…
Karmeier said no, noting that Tillery and Co. “do not allege I harbor any actual bias for or against” either party. Instead, he said, they contend “various factors have combined to create ‘an objective and reasonable public perception’ that I am biased in favor of” Philip Morris because of the “unprecedented sums” spent in his 2004 election.Karmeier further noted that financial records reveal no donations to his 2004 campaign by Philip Morris, despite Tillery’s claim that it was “bankrolling” it. […]
“The notion that” Philip Morris financed “my run for office 10 years ago is just that, a notion,” he said.
Karmeier said he also “cannot help but notice” Tillery’s motion “bear(s) an unmistakable similarity to materials filed by the plaintiffs” in another big judgment case, involving State Farm Insurance.
“The only difference here is that the respondents here claim that those same contributions should be attributed to (Philip Morris) rather than State Farm,” he wrote.
* As I told subscribers the other day, a new group called Campaign for 2016 dropped well over a half million dollars to try and derail Karmeier’s retention bid…
* From a Karmeier campaign press release this afternoon…
It took less than a day for the shadow group known as “Campaign for 2016″ to emerge from the darkness, according to Retain Karmeier Campaign Manager Ron Deedrick.
“Now there is a public record of the political committee ‘Campaign for 2016,’ and it’s clear that a number of trial attorneys with deep pockets are working in concert to protect their investment in cases they are litigating,” Deedrick said. “A direct line can be drawn from those who seek to defeat the Justice and who have current cases before the courts, including the Illinois Supreme Court.
‘Campaign for 2016’ scored a $300,000 donation on October 16 from Chicago-area attorney George Zelcs. Zelcs is an attorney with the law firm of Korien Tillery, LLC based in St. Louis. Media accounts show that Zelcs is a lead attorney tied into a multi-billion dollar case that is now before the Illinois Supreme Court. The same media accounts also show that the class-action lawsuit could net more than $10 billion for the plaintiffs.
“The timing of this attack is questionable as well. The Justice entered an order back on September 24 that rejected the Tillery group’s efforts to obtain his recusal from the case,” Deedrick said. “This is likely a personal political response to the Justice’s order.”
*** UPDATE *** Another $500K was reported by the Campaign for 2016 this afternoon. An attorney with the above-mentioned Korein Tillery, the Power Rogers & Smith firm and Clifford Law Offices all kicked in.
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Lower ratings for ABC 7 debate
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Most of the people who saw last night’s debate watched the delayed Channel 7 broadcast at 10:30. Lewis Lazare has the numbers…
The Nielsen overnight ratings in the Chicago market showed the debate on Channel 7 winning the hour time slot that began at 10:30 p.m. — but only by the slimmest of margins. The debate notched a 4.2 average rating, while “The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon” was just behind with an average 4.1 rating. One rating point equals 35,000 households in the Chicago market.
Beating Fallon is nice, but that 4.2 is actually lower than CBS 2’s gubernatorial debate last week, which notched a 4.6.
A few folks did watch online, but we’re talking 147,000 households out of 4.8 million in all of Illinois, which works out to just 3.1 percent.
Again, media coverage and TV ads are how most people who care will find out about what happened last night.
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Bloomberg to spend $1.9 million on Dold
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Crain’s…
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is spending big money to sway another congressional race in Illinois.
Independence USA, a Washington-based super PAC he controls, is buying $1.9 million in television ads supporting former GOP Rep. Robert Dold, who is in a close race to reclaim his seat from Rep. Brad Schneider, a Democrat, in the North Shore’s 10th congressional district.
That’s the largest outside spending by a wide margin in the race, which has drawn national attention and outside spending by several groups. The Bloomberg PAC’s spending is almost $1 million more than an independent expenditure by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in May that also was intended to aid Mr. Dold.
Whew.
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Stand down… mostly
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This Illinois Review story raised my eyebrows…
Admitting his confidence in Cook County ballot integrity is shaken, State Representative Candidate Jim Moynihan (R-56), was shocked today when he tried to cast a vote for himself and the voting machine cast it for his opponent instead.
“While early voting at the Schaumburg Public Library today, I tried to cast a vote for myself and instead it cast the vote for my opponent,” said Moynihan. “You could imagine my surprise as the same thing happened with a number of races when I tried to vote for a Republican and the machine registered a vote for a Democrat.”
While using a touch screen voting machine in Schaumburg, Moynihan voted for several races on the ballot, only to find that whenever he voted for a Republican candidate, the machine registered the vote for a Democrat in the same race. He notified the election judge at his polling place and demonstrated that it continued to cast a vote for the opposing candidate’s party. Moynihan was eventually allowed to vote for Republican candidates, including his own race. It is unknown if the machine in question (#008958) has been removed from service or is still in operation.
“Clearly, I am concerned that citizens will be unable to vote for the candidate of their choice, especially if they are in a hurry and do not double check their ballot,” added Moynihan. “I cannot say whether or not this was intentional, but Cook County voters deserve better and should not have their right to vote suppressed.”
So, I called the Cook County Clerk’s office. The machine Moynihan used never “cast” a vote, the office says. After you touch each candidate’s name, the machine asks you to confirm your choice. When you’re finished, you get a list, then a printed list and you’re then asked to confirm your vote.
The problem was that the screen calibration was off. It was recalibrated, then put back into use without further complaints.
Also, IR didn’t mention this part, but the Daily Herald did…
When he pointed it out to a judge, it was determined that the machine hadn’t been calibrated correctly, he said. He ultimately was able to vote for the candidates he chose by pressing the very bottom right hand corner of the screen. Pressing the center of each button resulted in the opposite candidate’s name registering.
* Meanwhile, a member of the Quinn campaign sent me an e-mail last night with the subject line: “Rauner’s voter intimidation gets underway” and a link…
[Madison County Clerk Debbie Ming-Mendoza] said Phil Chapman of Highland inappropriately was taking people’s driver’s licenses to examine, inserting himself between the official election judges and chatting with the voters.
“He obviously did not know what his role as a poll watcher was. He was insinuating himself between the judges and talking to the voters,” Ming-Mendoza said.
She said he was also handling the official voting materials. She said she informed him several times he was only allowed to observe. He was not to handle anybody’s license or speak to voters.
“Every time I would leave, he would scoot his chair back up to the judge’s table. I had a couple of people come into my office and tell me they wanted to file a complaint,” Ming-Mendoza said. “I had to go back six times and tell him he needed to stop,” she said.
He eventually behaved himself and he apparently didn’t stop anyone from voting, so all’s well that ends well.
* But read further down…
[Madison County] Democratic Party Chairman Allan Napp said he and other party officials have been getting reports from across the state of people standing outside polling places giving false information. Some are being told they have to have a social security card in order to vote. Others are being told that if they don’t vote, they don’t have to pay their next water bill, Napp said.
That’s a pretty darned bold accusation. Anybody else hearing stuff like that?
* Meanwhile…
Tuesday afternoon, Republican candidate for Governor Bruce Rauner will be in Rockford to promote early voting. The irony is that voters in Winnebago County and Rockford won’t be able to do so.
A second error with the race for Winnebago County Forest Preserve Commissioner has forced the city and county to suspend early voting. Initially, absentee ballots had been sent out without the race at all. Officials with both the City of Rockford and Winnebago County elections office said they would mail new ballots out to those people who had already received absentee ballots with the race included.
However, officials tell ‘Eyewitness News’ the new ballots contain a new mistake. They instruct voters to vote for one candidate — rather than vote for two of the three candidates on the ballot. The race is for two seats on the Commission, not one.
As a result, early voting has been suspended until new, correct ballots can be printed.
Oops.
* The IL GOP wants the problem fixed…
“The Illinois Republican Party expresses its strong concern over reports that early voting has been halted in Winnebago County, including in the City of Rockford. The people of Illinois have a right to vote and no one should be able to deny them that right. With early voting underway, we call on the Winnebago County and Rockford County election officials to immediately restore the people’s right to vote in a manner that ensures every legal vote is accurately counted. The Illinois Republican Party will closely monitor the situation in the hours ahead to ensure county and city officials restore the people’s right to vote.”
* And Schimpf wants action, darnit, right now…
Republican Attorney General Candidate Paul Schimpf issued the following statement in response to the problem State Representative Candidate Jim Moynihan had casting his vote in Cook County and the suspension of early voting in Rockford and Winnebago County:
“Nothing is more critical to the success of our democracy than the integrity of our elections. I call on Lisa Madigan to immediately open investigations into these voting irregularities.”
Funny that he didn’t mention the Madison County stuff.
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BLS: A strong couple of months
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Bureau of Labor Statistics had some mostly good news for Illinois today. Gov. Pat Quinn was all over it…
Governor Pat Quinn today issued a statement regarding the latest economic information released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The information made available today showed that last month Illinois led the Midwest – and was second in the nation – in job creation. It also found that Illinois has seen the nation’s largest drop in unemployment over the last year. In September, Illinois’ unemployment rate dropped for the seventh consecutive month, from 6.7 to 6.6 percent, the lowest level since June 2008 and down from 11.4 percent at the peak of the recession. In the last two months Illinois employers have created more than 40,000 jobs.
“Today’s news shows that the Illinois economy is making a comeback. We are making the tough decisions necessary to drive economic growth and the statistics released today show that Illinois is moving in the right direction.
“Illinois has seen the nation’s sharpest decline in unemployment over the last year, and our unemployment rate is at its lowest point in more than six years.
“Last month Illinois had the second best job growth in America. Illinois employers have added more than 300,000 jobs since the recovery began.
“It is clear that Illinois’ economy is growing stronger every day, and we have more work to do. Let’s keep our shoulder to the wheel.”
* 40,000 new jobs in two months is, indeed, some good news. The Illinois Policy Institute chose to focus on a problematic sector in its response…
Today, complete data showing Illinois’ unemployment levels were released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The September report shows mixed results, with Illinois gaining 19,300 net jobs but losing 2,800 manufacturing jobs. This expands on data released last week by the Illinois Department of Employment Security showing the state’s jobless rate dropping to 6.6 percent. The state’s net payroll job growth is one of the best monthly increases in the state over the past decade. However, Illinois still ranks worst in the Midwest for manufacturing job losses.
The nonpartisan Illinois Policy Institute’s Director of Jobs and Growth, Michael Lucci, issued the following statement on today’s jobless data:
“Illinois had a strong month for job growth in September. Gaining more than 19,000 payroll jobs in the state is a positive sign for Illinoisans who have been struggling to find work. However, Illinois has been incredibly slow in terms of putting people back to work compared to other states in the country since the end of the recession. At the current pace of growth, it will still take Illinois seven more years to recover the losses from the Great Recession.”
Below are some highlights from today’s jobs report:
Illinois payroll jobs growth of 19,300 is the sixth-best monthly jobs increase for the state in the past decade.
Despite the state’s workforce growing slightly by 5,800 in September, Illinois’ workforce participation rate is still at a 35-year low.
Illinois has 130,900 fewer jobs since recession losses began in January 2008. This is the second-worst recovery in the country.
Illinois has 99,000 fewer manufacturing jobs since January 2008, the worst record of any state in the Midwest.
If you look at the month of September dating back to 2004, you’ll see Illinois had 5.979 million non-farm jobs in 2007 - the peak. We’re at 5.863 million today - 116,000 fewer. Our September low point was 5.6 million jobs in 2009, so we’re 263,000 above that horrible nadir. At this current rate of growth, I’m not sure it’s gonna take us 7 more years to recover those lost jobs, as the Policy Institute claims.
Also, the participation rate is not entirely a red herring, but it mostly is. Conservatives are touting the economies of nearby states which have lower participation rates. From a recent Tribune editorial…
The [July, 2014) numbers show the Illinois labor participation rate of 64.7 percent running ahead of the rates in Michigan (60.4), Ohio (62.8), Indiana (63.3) and Missouri (64.2). Illinois trails Iowa (70.1) and Wisconsin (67.8).
I do agree that the manufacturing sector losses need to be addressed, however.
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Rate Sheila Simon’s new TV ad
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* OK, let’s try this again, shall we? Rate it…
…Adding… Welp, it’s been taken off her YouTube account. It was there yesterday, I swear. I’ll try to get another copy.
…Adding More… While I find another copy, you can watch her debate last night with Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka…
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* From the House Republicans…
A date has been set for State Representative Raymond Poe (R-Springfield) to undergo an adult stem cell transplant that will replace his bone marrow and hopes to cure a blood disease. Last May Poe was diagnosed with Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and has been receiving blood transfusions to offset his low production of red blood cells. Poe will undergo the transplant procedure at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston.
“I received word late last week that the hospital in Houston is ready to begin the transplant process at the end of this month,” said Poe. “In my absence, I want to reassure my constituents that my office will remain open and available to assist should the need arise. My staff of twelve plus years will continue to take care of all day-to-day operations and constituent services.”
Poe says he expects the hospital stay for the transplant to last approximately three weeks, followed by an extended recovery period. During his absence, Poe’s colleagues, State Representatives Rich Brauer, C.D. Davidsmeyer, Bill Mitchell and Wayne Rosenthal have all agreed to watch over his legislative district.
“We all wish Raymond well during his transplant procedure and pray for his successful recovery in Texas,” said State Rep. Rich Brauer (R-Petersburg). “Since we share district office space, my staff and I are in place to lend a hand to the needs of his district and constituents.”
“Raymond Poe has been a great friend and resource for me over the last couple of years,” said State Rep. C.D. Davidsmeyer (R-Jacksonville). “I am happy to help him and his constituents in any way, as we wait for his healthy return.”
“Raymond’s a true friend whose first loyalties are to the people of his district,” said State Rep. Bill Mitchell (R-Forsyth). “There’s not a more dedicated representative than Raymond Poe. We are working to ensure that his constituents’ needs are met while Raymond is away for treatment.”
“I wish Raymond all the best as he seeks treatment,” said State Rep. Wayne Rosenthal (R-Morrisonville). “I have the utmost respect and admiration for him and know that he will be back to serving his district before we know it. In the meantime, I will be at the ready to step in and assist in any capacity should the need arise.”
Good luck, Ray! Hang in there!
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* From the Rauner campaign…
Bruce Rauner today launched a new Chicago-area TV ad touting his sweep of newspaper endorsements over incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn.
Rauner has been endorsed by the Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, Daily Herald, Shaw Media Newspapers, Crain’s Chicago Business, the Peoria Journal Star, the Champaign News-Gazette and the Belleville News-Democrat. In the 30-second spot, titled “Endorsed,” Illinois voters learn why independent news sources agree Bruce Rauner is the clear choice to lead our state back to prosperity:
“The power to revive Illinois” – Chicago Tribune
“Bruce Rauner gives Illinois hope” – Northwest Herald
“Rauner will build consensus that considers all interests” – Daily Herald
“A renewed sense of optimism” – Crain’s Chicago Business
“Get Illinois roaring again for the sake of us all.” – Chicago Sun-Times
The ad…
Thoughts?
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* For the second time in a week, Bruce Rauner used Stephanie Neely’s name in a debate. Sun-Times…
Both men also used the debate to try to win over the African-American vote.
Rauner repeatedly hit Quinn on his choice for lieutenant governor, saying Quinn passed up on City Treasurer Stephanie Neely, who is black. He also hit Quinn for what he saw as the effect his policies have had on the African-American community.
ABC 7…
Rauner criticized the governor for not choosing City Treasurer Stephanie Neely as Quinn’s running mate and promised to hire Neely in a Rauner administration.
“Stephanie Neely, I know her. She’s talented, she’s a super star, I wish she was a Republican, she’s not,” Rauner said.
* NBC 5’s Mary Ann Ahern asked Neely about Rauner’s repeated debate shout-outs…
Neely had been considered as Governor Pat Quinn’s running mate, but he choose Paul Vallas instead.
“I was honored when Gov. Quinn spoke to me,” she said in an interview with NBC Chicago’s Mary Ann Ahern. “He decided to go a different way and that is his choice and I’m not sour on him or politics because of it.”
GOP candidate Bruce Rauner mentioned Neely’s name to her surprise at last week’s debate focusing on African American issues.
“I was sitting there in the audience and I was like, ‘What?’” she said.
* More from Ahern’s Twitter feed…
*** UPDATE 1 *** With a big hat tip to a commenter…
*** UPDATE 2 *** From Fran Spielman’s story…
On Tuesday, Neely said she was “amused” by Rauner’s comment, but not at all interested in joining a Rauner administration. She called herself a “card-carrying Democrat” who is supporting Quinn.
“I’m not sure what he’s trying to do with that, but I’m not gonna be drawn into that kind of craziness. I actually find it somewhat comical. I have a job. I’ve already accepted a job,” she said.
“We need to be debating what’s best for the state of Illinois — not trying to use me as some kind of go-to to make somebody else look bad. The state has some serious problems. We need to be debating that. I’m not part of that conversation.”
If Rauner was attempting to use Neely to siphon African-American votes from Quinn, it won’t work, the retiring treasurer said.
“The voting public in Chicago and Illinois is very smart. They’re not gonna be manipulated by things like that. They’re gonna look at the real issues and decide who’s the best governor,” she said.
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* Mark Brown chatted with Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Chad Grimm about Local 150’s pledge to help his campaign…
“I thought it was genuine, and I don’t see it as being a problem,” Grimm told me late Monday on his way to a meeting where he was hoping to learn more about the extent of the union’s help.
After the meeting, Grimm reported he now expects the union’s additional support to come in the form of an independent expenditure campaign that it will control. Grimm said he’s good with that, too.
Rich Miller from CapitolFax reported this week that Local 150 would be spending “six-figures” on behalf of Grimm in a last-second push that most expect will work to the detriment of Rauner. Miller reported the money will be spent on direct mail and robocalls.
Although the Operating Engineers have traditionally supported both Democrats and Republicans in recognition of the mixed leanings of its members, the union has been campaigning determinedly against Rauner for the past year because of his anti-union rhetoric and policies.
* In other news, Illinois isn’t the only state with a minimum wage hike ballot initiative, reports the AP…
In Alaska, Senate candidate Dan Sullivan opposed a federal minimum wage hike during the GOP primary campaign then came out for the state minimum wage measure in his general election race against Democratic Sen. Mark Begich.
Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor and his Republican opponent, Tom Cotton, have both endorsed the state-level ballot measure in Arkansas, but Cotton had previously said the issue should be left for voters to decide.
Democratic officials in Nebraska hope the wage issue makes a difference in the close race between Democrat Brad Ashford and Republican incumbent Lee Terry in an Omaha-based congressional district.
In South Dakota, where Democratic U.S. Sen. Tim Johnson’s retirement created an open seat, Democrat Rick Weiland helped carry signed petitions to the Secretary of State’s office to get the minimum wage issue on the ballot. His GOP opponent, former Gov. Mike Rounds, opposes it.
* Meanwhile, remember this self-made video from the 2010 campaign?…
Well, “Matt the Welder” is back with another self-made ad that he’s posted to Facebook. Click here to see it.
…Adding… I don’t know why I didn’t put this relevant debate snippet in the post. From ABC 7…
Rauner acknowledged his support for “right to work,” or opportunity zones, as he now calls them. And the candidates renewed their now-familiar disagreement on raising the minimum wage.
“We’re going to raise the minimum wage this year, we’re going to get it done,” Quinn said.
“He’s a phony on the minimum wage. He’s playing political football to make it a political issue in the campaign,” countered Rauner.
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A bevy of new congressional TV ads
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The DCCC has an updated version of its “truck ad” on the air in the 10th Congressional District…
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching its latest ad in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District, showing how Bob Dold is just another run-of-the-mill Republican who the Tea Party can rely on – since he has already voted to restrict women’s healthcare choices, limit access to birth control and defund Planned Parenthood, which reduces access to affordable health care for women like cancer screenings. The ad starts today.
The ad…
The script…
[Narrator] Still not sure about the twenty fourteen Bob Dold?
More than just a run-of-the-mill Republican.
We’re talking lockstep, yes-man, tea-party-can-rely-on-me Republican.
With ten party-line votes against women powering his agenda…
Bob Dold would restrict women’s healthcare choices…
And limit access to birth control.
Bob Dold comes standard with votes that let insurance companies charge women more than men.
And would defund Planned Parenthood, driving away affordable healthcare like cancer screenings.
The twenty fourteen Bob Dold. Way out of the mainstream.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.
* Moving right along, the DCCC has a new ad in the 12th as well…
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching a new television ad in Illinois’ 12th Congressional District highlighting how Meltdown Mike Bost’s reckless priorities represent everything the people of Illinois hate about Washington. From raising taxes to borrowing millions and underfunding the pension system, it’s clear that Meltdown Mike Bost would be part of the problem in Washington – not on the side of the middle class.
Ad…
Script…
Over twenty years in Springfield, Mike Bost could have helped the middle class.
Instead, Bost became part of the problem.
Voting for Governor Ryan’s reckless budgets.
Raising taxes, borrowing millions, and underfunding the pension system.
Bost even voted for a golf course and skating rink – in suburban Chicago.
Mike Bost would make Washington worse.
* Same district, different party…
“Sending Bill Enyart back to Congress means more government spending paid for by Southern Illinois taxpayers. It’s time to shake up Washington and send Mike Bost to Congress. He’s a true leader focused on making things better for Southern Illinois families.” – Katie Prill, NRCC Spokeswoman
Ad…
Script…
ANNCR: With Bill Enyart in Washington, nothing will change.
Enyart. Pelosi. Obama. They just run up more debt.
17 Trillion and growing.
Enyart supported Obamacare, $2 Trillion in new spending.
With big spenders like Bill Enyart, the middle class pays the price.
It’s time for a shakeup.
Mike Bost will work for balanced budgets.
Fewer burdens on the middle class.
Change Washington. Mike Bost.
* And over in Congressman Rodney Davis’ district comes this from his Democratic opponent…
Former Chief Judge and Congressional challenger Ann Callis today released a new television ad, “You.” In the ad, Callis speaks from the heart directly to voters about the choice they have in this election between a true public servant and a political insider who will do anything to protect his job. Callis slams Congressman Rodney Davis for his desperate attempts to distract voters by continuing misleading attacks on Callis’ family and judicial career.
Ad…
Script…
(CALLIS): As a mom and a judge, in between putting bad guys in jail, I raised good ones. I want the best for them, and for you. That’s why I’ve focused on more jobs for Illinois and ending perks for politicians. But Rodney Davis is a politician who wants to protect his job, so he lied about my career and attacked my family. I’m Ann Callis. I approve this message because I think you deserve better. That’s the difference between us, and the choice in this election.
* From Davis…
No Labels, a national organization dedicated to a new politics of problem solving, has awarded its “Problem Solver Seal of Approval” to Illinois Republican Rodney Davis for his support of the group’s year-long effort to create a National Strategic Agenda, a roadmap for the country based on goals shared by both parties.
“In just his first term in Congress, Representative Davis has shown a firm commitment to problem solving,” said Bill Galston, a co-founder of No Labels. “It is this kind of leadership, coupled with the creation of a National Strategic Agenda, that is going to help us solve some of the big issues we’re facing as a country.”
No Labels is calling for America’s leaders to support a new governing process to build a National Strategic Agenda centered on four goals.
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Quinn tax hike dodge count: 4
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times debate coverage…
Rauner repeatedly criticized Quinn for raising the income tax in Illinois and warned that even if Quinn were defeated he would raise taxes.
Quinn was grilled on whether he would indeed try again to reinstate the income tax hike even if he wasn’t reelected on Nov. 4.
Quinn said he’s been open about his plan, a budget that he pushed in March that included a $500 property tax rebate but ultimately was unsuccessful.
“The worst tax is the property tax, it’s not based on ability to pay,” Quinn said.
* The Rauner campaign has a highlight video…
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Today’s number: 165
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Tribune’s coverage of last night’s gubernatorial debate…
But Rauner, who has run his campaign based on his business success, stumbled when asked to name a business investment that led to increased jobs in Illinois. Rauner did not list a single company, pointing the audience to the website of his former GTCR investment firm, saying it lists “hundreds of companies for everybody to see.”
* ABC 7 reported that Rauner did, however, provide a name after the debate ended…
During his post-debate news conference, Rauner was able to mention one of his many companies that had created jobs. He mentioned Actient, a North Shore healthcare company financed at one point by Rauner’s firm, GTCR.
However, he was not able to provide any details about how many jobs that firm had created when it was owned by GTCR.
* From an April 29, 2013 Dow Jones report about GTCR’s sale of Actient…
Actient has 165 employees, including 100 sales representatives
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A grand good morning to you all!
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sometimes, you can just get too deep into the weeds of these crazy campaigns - the meaningless minutiae, the intrinsically harmful weirdness, the outlandish character assassination, the moment by instantaneous moment hyper-partisan negativity. When you feel that happening, you gotta step back, man; take a deep, cleansing breath, blow out all the irony and ask yourself: “Ain’t life grand?” Turn it up for Widespread Panic…
The sun came out the other day
Through those dusty clouds
And in my mind I was a child
And it felt good!
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Sign of the times?
Monday, Oct 20, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* So, what happens when a campaign doesn’t have a lot of extra money and yard signs still need to go up? Well, they could choose to cut off part of a 2010 Quinn/Simon sign and repurpose it…
The above photo was taken yesterday in central Illinois by a longtime friend.
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A long, long way to go
Monday, Oct 20, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
From the 2007-08 fiscal year to 2014-15, state spending on K-12 education in Illinois fell 9.3 percent, or $222 per student, after adjusting for inflation, according to a study by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-of-center Washington think tank.
That puts Illinois in the bottom half of all states, though far from the bottom of the list. That distinction goes to Oklahoma, where state funding for K-12 education dropped 23.3 percent over the same period. The median change for the 47 states in the study was negative 3.2 percent.
The study looked at states’ major funding formulas, which make up a large proportion of total funding in most states. In Illinois, this formula accounted for half of all state funding for K-12 education.
As states have cut back on education funding, cities and local school districts have had to make up the slack through increased taxes or make severe cuts. Across the U.S., 260,000 education jobs have been lost since August 2008, according to the study.
Yep. State education funding crashed in FY09 here and elsewhere. A temporary infusion of federal cash helped ease the pain caused by the Great Recession, but this state, like many others, has yet to recover.
It’s been particularly difficult to get back on track in Illinois because this state, unlike just about any other, picks up the employer share of teacher pension payments. And since Gov. Quinn decided that the state was going to make full payments, everything else has been, um, squeezed out.
That was just one reason why pension reform was pushed so hard here. But it doesn’t look like it’s gonna work.
* And speaking of pension costs, this is from a Tribune editorial about a recent Civic Federation report…
• This year Illinois’ general funds will receive $4.5 billion from Washington, much of it for Medicaid. So-called state-source revenues will total $30.6 billion. Of that total — essentially the taxes you pay to Springfield — total pension costs will consume 1 of every 4 dollars, or 24.7 percent. If you wonder why Illinois has so little money for other priorities …
• Worse, taxpayers’ pension contributions “are expected to increase sharply in fiscal year 2016″ from the current year, 2015. Why? Because the state’s largest pension funds are cutting their too-bullish expected return on investments.
The Civic Federation report estimates an $800 million increase. I’d estimated the hike at about a billion some time ago.
The biggest problem that Bruce Rauner has completely nailed is that Illinois isn’t getting out of this mess until it vastly increases private sector growth. Whether he can do it or not is yet to be seen… if he wins, that is.
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Statewide roundup
Monday, Oct 20, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Tribune has one of the more interesting profiles I’ve read this year of Gov. Pat Quinn…
The Tribune interviewed about two dozen current and former Quinn aides, lawmakers, union officials and policy advocates to get some insight into how Quinn governs. A picture emerged of a leader who can be an idealist but dabble in partisan political games, inclusive in seeking opinions but mistrusting of those outside his small inner circle.
He’s viewed as an awkward executive who sometimes struggles to make eye contact during meetings, opting instead to write in a tiny notebook he clutches close to his face. He prefers tattered notecards over a fancy planner. He can be a detail-oriented micromanager, but also more concerned with the public perception of an issue than the intricacies of actually getting something done. […]
The governor has hired a number of his brother’s former students who now serve in key positions, including campaign manager and deputy chief of staff, leading some insiders to refer to them as the “Fenwick mafia.” The title is reflective of the frustrations of some within the administration who say it can be hard to gain the governor’s trust if you are outside that circle or haven’t been a longtime friend. A key player in the small group is brother Tom Quinn, a lawyer at Schiff Hardin and fellow Fenwick alum relied upon for political advice. […]
Quinn is also known for taking his time to make a decision. Views differ on whether that’s a strength or a weakness.
Go read the whole thing.
* The Tribune’s profile of Bruce Rauner was also well-written…
He vows to “prosecute” corruption if elected governor (he would have no legal authority to do so), pledges to jump-start major policy initiatives through executive orders (a power significantly limited by the Illinois Constitution) and complains of voter fraud he calls “massive” (few documented cases have come to light).
At one GOP forum, he spoke of “friends” telling him how elections were so rigged by Democrats that “there’s still about one-third of the precincts in Chicago where the bosses just talk over what they want the turnout to be, what they want the margin to be. Then they just do that.”
Such notions may resonate with GOP audiences ripe for Chicago bashing, but they also play to an archaic stereotype rendered all but impossible in today’s era of electronic voting.
For all his blunt talk and broad assertions, Rauner’s campaign sometimes seems a study in mixed messages and contradictory images.
Again, go read the whole thing.
* In other news, Lynn Sweet has a story about turnout…
* In Illinois, Democrats are running a coordinated GOTV drive led by Durbin, Quinn and Democratic Party of Illinois Chairman Michael Madigan, speaker of the Illinois House. The Republican Illinois GOTV operation is led and heavily bankrolled by the Rauner campaign. […]
* Democrats are also getting a heavy turnout assist from Democratic-allied unions bankrolling a drive to approve a ballot question about raising the minimum wage in Illinois. That’s a turnout tool. The “Raise Illinois” Coalition plans to knock on 300,000 doors emphasizing early voting starting on Saturday.
* Why the emphasis on early voting? Campaigns go to a lot of trouble to identify their likely voters, and they want to bank them early in order to not be at the mercy of variables, such as weather. Also, campaign workers keep track of early voters, so once the ballot is cast, they don’t have to waste any more effort on that person.
* From Illinois Review…
A group urging voters to support the three percent tax hike on Illinois millionaires received a $250,000 boost from a national teachers union Monday morning.
The National Education Association handed over to “Fairness for Working Families” - a group formed in late August to advocate “passage of the advisory constitutional amendment for a 3% millionaire surcharge dedicated to public education - the only funding the group has received thus far.
* And Carol Marin traveled to Putnam County…
The people of Downstate Putnam County don’t mince words about politics. Or about Chicago politicians running for governor.
Take Alma Toedter, who at 76 has been a Republican committeewoman for 35 years and is the GOP chairwoman in these parts.
“I think (voters) are so fed up with the one we have now (Pat Quinn), and then the other one, (Bruce Rauner) he sounds like he’s got so much money he doesn’t know what to do with it all,” she tells me. “So I don’t know how this is going to go. I really don’t.”
Mrs. Toedter and I are sitting in the basement of her spacious home where hundreds of bowling trophies adorn the walls — she is a champion bowler — alongside countless pictures of the diminutive grandmother with presidents Reagan, Bush I, Clinton and Bush II.
* Other stuff…
* U R G E N T ! Read this story about candidates’ desperate email fundraising
* Move over, Bruce. $1,825,000 for Marsy’s Law PAC to back crime victims
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Question of the day
Monday, Oct 20, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* WUIS Statehouse Bureau Chief Amanda Vinicky and Chicago Sun-Times Statehouse Bureau Chief Dave McKinney…
* The Question: Caption?
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Last night’s oddest moment
Monday, Oct 20, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Tribune’s coverage of last night’s GOTV rally for Gov. Quinn…
President Barack Obama on Sunday night helped launch an all-out effort by Democrats to get voters to the polls for Gov. Pat Quinn, telling thousands gathered at a South Side rally to cast their ballots when early voting starts Monday. […]
Quinn, who has tried to make Rauner’s wealth a central issue of the campaign, wants to keep the state income tax rate at 5 percent instead of letting it fall back to 3.75 percent as scheduled in January. “As long as I’m governor, we’re not going to give tax breaks to the wealthy at the expense of cutting our schools,” Quinn told the audience.
Obama, however, said Quinn was running to “provide the largest tax break in history of working families in Illinois.” A Quinn aide said the president was referring to Quinn’s call last spring for a property tax cut. That plan went nowhere in the General Assembly.
So, either the prez didn’t want to talk about the income tax issue, or he believes Quinn should be running on property tax relief instead. Either way, that was pretty darned weird.
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* At this moment, I agree with one of our commenters…
How many Illinois voters are going to pick up on this? Or the ties between Rauner (and Rahm) and the Sun-Times?
What they MIGHT pick up on is that pretty much every major newspaper in Illinois has endorsed Rauner, regardless of what’s behind those endorsements.
* So far, at least, the back story is being ignored by the rest of the media. For instance, here’s the AP…
The Chicago Sun-Times has endorsed Republican Bruce Rauner over Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn in the race for Illinois governor.
The endorsement published online Saturday calls Rauner “an extraordinarily capable businessman” who might be able to “break the stranglehold of uninspired, self-serving, one-party rule in Springfield.”
The newspaper calls Quinn a man of integrity. But it says his “uninspired tinkering on fiscal matters” won’t save Illinois.
The Sun-Times announced about three years ago it would no longer endorse candidates. It says it reversed course because of the importance of the race.
No mention of the McKinney controversy. No mention of the Quinn campaign’s reaction to the endorsement. Nada. Outside of here and a few other blogs around the interwebtubes, nobody out there in Voter Land knows about this.
* Another AP story…
Republican businessman Bruce Rauner has picked up more newspaper endorsements in his bid for Illinois governor.
The Belleville News Democrat, The (Champaign) News-Gazette and the Journal Star in Peoria endorsed Rauner over Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn in editorials published on Sunday.
Rauner also was endorsed by the Chicago Sun-Times in an editorial published online on Saturday.
He also has been endorsed by the Chicago Tribune, Crain’s Chicago Business and the (Arlington Heights) Daily Herald.
* From the Rauner campaign…
What They’re Saying About Pat Quinn
Newspapers across Illinois are endorsing Bruce Rauner over Pat Quinn. Here’s what they’re saying about Pat Quinn’s record of failure.
“Today’s Illinois, then, is broke and broken. Quinn’s most dubious achievement is a four-year income tax increase he now wants to make permanent.” – Chicago Tribune
“A vote for Pat Quinn, which is really just a vote for Madigan, is a vote for the same old crumbling thing. A vote for Bruce Rauner is a vote for bold and dramatic change, which cannot come soon enough. Pat Quinn seems content to manage our state’s decline.” – Chicago Sun-Times
“Gov. Pat Quinn has had six years in which to put the state back on course, but ultimately has shown he is not the leader we need.” – Daily Herald
“Gov. Pat Quinn has had more than 5 years to guide Illinois toward a brighter fiscal future. Instead, his incompetent leadership and regressive policies have driven the state to the brink of financial collapse…Simply put, Quinn’s tenure as governor has been a complete failure.” – Shaw Media
“…[Quinn]’s been in office for six years, he espouses policies that have landed the state in deep trouble and his perception that there’s no problem another tax increase can’t cure isn’t good for what ails Illinois.” – Champaign News-Gazette
“Quinn can’t blame Republicans for the failures. His Democratic Party holds a supermajority in both houses. The issue is Quinn’s failure to lead.” – Belleville News-Democrat
“Illinois has the worst credit rating of any state. It also retains title to the highest unfunded pension liability. Its overall business climate and actual economic performance rank 46th among 50, its economic outlook 48th. Illinois’ unemployment rate is near bottom of America’s barrel.” – Peoria Journal Star
“Mr. Quinn unfortunately has fallen victim to the vices of one-party rule, promoting patronage and passing around political favors…He is too ready to spend taxpayer money on projects that we can’t afford.” – Crain’s Chicago Business
* Also from the Rauner campaign…
What They’re Saying About Bruce Rauner
Bruce Rauner is sweeping newspaper endorsements across Illinois. Here’s what they’re saying about him.
“For the broke, broken Illinois of 2014, Bruce Rauner is two challengers in one: He’s challenging an incumbent who tried and came up short. He would challenge the power brokers who like Illinois just as it is. No wonder they loathe Rauner. He makes them sweat. He deserves your vote.” – Chicago Tribune
“Today we are putting our chips — we’re all in — on an extraordinarily capable businessman who just might have what it takes to break the stranglehold of uninspired, self-serving, one-party rule in Springfield.” – Chicago Sun-Times
“He is an outsider with no accumulated political debts and no reason to accumulate any…He can lead independently, without fear of abandonment by the voters or his party, and therefore work to build consensus that considers all interests fairly.” – Daily Herald
“Rauner will not be beholden to the special interests that have helped to corrupt Springfield…Bruce Rauner gives Illinois hope. That’s why we endorse Rauner, the Republican nominee for governor.” – Shaw Media
“Rauner has offered his skills to help the ship of state land safely, and voters should answer with an emphatic yes to his request for support.” – Champaign News-Gazette
“Rauner won’t take a salary or a pension, and he’s not beholden to any of the special interests in Springfield.” – Belleville News-Democrat
“If you believe as we do that state government — the whole culture of corruption and incompetence — really has to change and that single-party control just isn’t cutting it, then our best bet is with an independent candidate of the opposite party who emphasizes that ‘I don’t owe anybody anything’ and ‘being reelected is not on my bucket list.’ Bruce Rauner is endorsed.” – Peoria Journal Star
“Bruce Rauner is the best candidate to pull the Illinois economy out of its low-growth rut. For that reason, above others, he earns our endorsement for governor.” – Crain’s Chicago Business
* Maybe something will happen during tonight’s debate. Quinn better hope so, and he’d better hope it results in some actual news coverage, or all these newspaper endorsements - if used properly in a solid Rauner ad - are gonna hurt.
…Adding… Rioppel covered part of the controversy for the Daily Herald…
Chicago Sun-Times Capitol bureau chief Dave McKinney has hired former Assistant U.S. Attorney Patrick Collins to look into whether Republican Bruce Rauner’s campaign for governor tried to influence the longtime reporter’s employment because of a story.
Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has jumped on the story in the heated campaign with the Winnetka businessman. “We’ve seen Rauner bully and bribe to get his way before, but trying to silence a journalist is a new low,” Quinn spokesman Brooke Anderson said in campaign email Saturday.
Rauner campaign manager Chip Englander said the campaign believed one story was unfair and wanted the paper to disclose that McKinney is married to a Democratic strategist.
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Stand down, lefties
Monday, Oct 20, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* These headlines caught my eye over the weekend…
* Huffington Post: Koch-Backed Group Ramps Up Intervention In Tight Illinois Governor’s Race
* Crooks and Liars: Koch Group Sends Fake Voter Information To Discourage Illinois Voters
* Daily Kos: Kochs now harassing voters in Illinois with registration mailers
* The alarming headlines were all based on this Decatur Herald & Review article…
It’s not uncommon for residents such as Maryilynn Baer to receive political mail before the general election.
But when recent letter came to her home that asked for her husband, Edgar, to re-register to vote before the November election, Baer was overwhelmed and upset.
Her husband had been dead since May.
“It was upsetting,” she said. “His name had already been taken off the voter registration list, and I sent the letter to (Macon County Clerk) Steve Bean and told him I had already notified him that Edgar had passed away.”
But the letter did not come from Bean. In fact, residents across the state have received similar letters that are seemingly sent from their local officials asking them to re-register to vote, with return postage listing the local county clerk’s name and address. The letters are actually being sent by the Americans for Prosperity Foundation, one of the largest conservative groups in the country.
* Trouble is, the article appears to have been mistaken. I called around over the weekend and was able to get a copy from the House Democrats. Nowhere in the mailer does it ask people to “re-register” to vote. Instead, it merely asks people to register if they haven’t…
Now, perhaps there is another mailer, but the one the Democrats have seems awfully benign.
And the fact that they’re mailing to dead people appears to suggest the group has an old list, not that they’re up to something deliberately nefarious.
…Adding… From AFP Illinois…
Rich-
The mailer you have up on the blog is the only one that went out. Obviously, mailing to folks who have passed on is not what we want to do for a number of reasons. It’s not nearly as easy to identify unregistered people as it is registered, but we use a number of models and information sources to do so. Sometimes the data is imperfect but we’re trying to get as many people involved in the election process as possible.
Regards,
David From
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Today’s number: $379 million
Monday, Oct 20, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* WaPo…
According to the Center for Public Integrity, $379 million has been spent on commercials in the 36 gubernatorial races this fall — $58 million more than has been spent on ads in the 36 Senate races. That includes a stunning $62 million in ads in the Florida race between Gov. Rick Scott (R) and former governor Charlie Crist.
In Illinois, Quinn (D) and wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner (R) have spent almost $53 million on TV.
And eight of the 10 candidates who have spent the most money on campaign commercials this cycle are running for governor.
Keep in mind that Florida is a lot bigger than Illinois, with more expensive media markets.
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
I wasn’t hugely surprised when Local 150 of the International Union of Operating Engineers contributed $30,000 to the Illinois Libertarian Party’s candidate for governor Chad Grimm earlier this month.
After all, the union’s president, Jim Sweeney, was out in front of the push to beat Bruce Rauner during the Republican primary. After a stormy meeting with Rauner, who is running on a pledge to allow local areas to opt-in to “right to work” laws, Sweeney demanded that organized labor stop the candidate in his tracks. The law would give workers the right to not join the very unions which negotiated their pay, benefits and working conditions.
Sweeney’s union contributed hundreds of thousands of dollars to state Sen. Kirk Dillard’s primary campaign, and kicked in even more to the Fund for Progress and Jobs PAC, which was the vehicle some unions used to inform Republicans that Rauner was a “closet Democrat.”
Dillard just barely lost to Rauner in the primary, but Sweeney didn’t let up. When the Illinois Republican Party committed resources this summer to knocking the Libertarians off the November ballot, Sweeney bankrolled a crew that pushed back hard and kept the Libertarians in place.
But as it turns out, that $30,000 was just a down payment. A whole lot more help from the union is apparently on the way. Sweeney told me last week that his local is also planning a full direct mail and robocall program for the Libertarian Party candidate.
Asked about rumors that his union would spend between $200,000 and $250,000 to push the pro-gun, pro-life Grimm with traditional Republican voters against the much more liberal Rauner, Sweeney replied “More.” Asked if the budget was six figures or seven, Sweeney said “Six.”
The Libertarian’s Grimm is getting around 5-8 percent of the vote so far, depending on the poll. He appears to be taking away slightly more votes from Rauner than he is from Gov. Pat Quinn. The object is to push Grimm’s numbers up by informing conservative Republican voters that he’s the only pro-gun, pro-life candidate in the contest.
Sweeney explained last week that 42 percent of his members pull Republican ballots during primaries, and that many of those members are pro-gun, pro-life conservatives who want another option. But, obviously, the real object here is to defeat Rauner.
Rauner says he is pro-choice, and has run TV and newspaper ads in Chicago featuring women attesting to his pro-choice convictions. The National Rifle Association has refused to rate Rauner, claiming he won’t answer their questions. Rauner’s positions can’t be used by Gov. Quinn, who is solidly pro-choice and not exactly a gun lover, but Sweeney can sure use them.
According to Sweeney, his union local had a 50 percent unemployment rate during the depths of the Great Recession. Once proud, solidly middle class union members were relying on union-sponsored food banks. Several lost their homes, their cars, their families.
The unemployment rate for Sweeney’s members is now the second lowest in the country in that sector, thanks in no small part to a big public works program pushed by Gov. Quinn. Sweeney’s local endorsed Quinn four years ago over Bill Brady because Brady, like Rauner, favored “right to work” legislation.
Sweeney said he met with Rauner twice since the primary in an attempt to find common ground, but Rauner refused both times to come off his “right to work” stance and wouldn’t commit to a funding source for a new public infrastructure program.
And Sweeney doesn’t appear to be in the mood for any further discussions, telling me that even if Rauner publicly changed his position on “right to work,” as he has with the minimum wage increase issue and taxes, the union leader wouldn’t believe him.
A huge factor in Gov. Quinn’s win four years ago was independent candidate Scott Lee Cohen’s millions of dollars worth of TV ads. He ended up splitting the anti-Quinn vote with Bill Brady, The hope here is that Grimm can manage a repeat performance.
The universe Sweeney’s aiming at is probably pretty small. Partisanship is strong on both ends of the spectrum, and convincing people to “throw away” their vote on a third party candidate won’t be easy, to say the least.
But for those who sincerely believe that abortion is murder and who refuse to support any candidate who disagrees with them, it could be a powerful message. The same goes for the “true believers” who own guns.
And in a close race – and this race is close – every vote will count.
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More on McKinney
Monday, Oct 20, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jim Kirk, publisher and editor in chief of the Chicago Sun-Times, explains his version of the Dave McKinney back-story…
It is not unusual for campaigns to vigorously argue against publication of a story, especially in the midst of a heated campaign like the current governor’s race.
What happened next, however, is unusual. Just hours before publication of the story, the campaign attempted to get the paper to stop publication by raising an alleged conflict involving a reporter on the story, Springfield Bureau Chief Dave McKinney, and his wife, Ann Liston, a partner in a firm that does consulting work for political clients.
As I told other media outlets over the weekend, the allegations leveled by the campaign were inaccurate and defamatory. We ran the story and continue to back it. And out of an abundance of caution, we did review the matter once again and are convinced Liston receives no financial benefit from any Illinois political campaign specifically because of the extraordinary steps she and McKinney have taken to establish business safeguards.
As I also told other media outlets, McKinney’s work in this campaign and in the more than two decades he has covered politics, including the stories he’s broken on the investigation involving Gov. Pat Quinn and the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative, are consistent with the tough reporting he has done on both campaigns. As I also said over the weekend, both McKinney and Liston are conscientious, ethical and among the best at their professions. The Rauner campaign team had no problem citing our investigations into Gov. Quinn when it suited their strategy. And I assure you the governor’s camp was none too pleased at our investigations of the controversial grant program.
* OK, the allegations leveled by Rauner’s people were “inaccurate and defamatory.” I completely agree. But why did Kirk admit this to Greg Hinz?…
Sun-Times Editor-in-Chief Jim Kirk concedes that he did sideline Mr. McKinney for the better part of the week after receiving “inaccurate and spurious” charges against him from the Rauner campaign, but he notes that the reporter is back on the beat.
If the charges were so “spurious” and even “defamatory,” then why sideline his Statehouse reporter for five days, with three weeks to go until election day?
* Back to Greg…
The Rauner campaign says “no one reached out to” Michael Ferro, who chairs the board of the Sun-Times’ parent company, Wrapports LLC, and who worked closely with Mr. Rauner when the latter owned 10 percent of the company. But no one who knows for sure is saying yet who pushed the idea of sidelining Mr. McKinney.
I think it’s most likely that Mr. Ferro did not know the details of the “firewall” agreement involving the McKinneys. When the firestorm burst, it’s quite possible that Mr. Kirk decided to throw his outraged boss a bone and spend a few days doublechecking to insure that the promised firewall indeed was in place.
But if I were Mr. McKinney, I’d be outraged, because his de facto suspension tarnished his professional reputation. Any political writer — me included — can understand that. And, pending Mr. Collins’ investigation, no one yet knows for sure who called whom and asked for what.
In that context, the paper’s decision, announced on a Friday evening, to suddenly get back in the endorsement business after a three-year absence is pertinent. In fact, just before midnight on Friday, the paper posted on its website an endorsement of Mr. Rauner that his campaign immediately touted far and wide:
[The link changed on Greg’s column, and it’s now fixed.]
* Robert Feder wrote about Chairman Ferro a while back…
With all due respect to David B. Speer, most Chicagoans never heard of the late president and CEO of Illinois Tool Works Inc., who died November 17. So when the Sun-Times devoted the entire front page of last Monday’s edition to Speer’s passing (and all of Pages 2 and 3 to his obituary and career highlights), it must have struck many readers as odd. But there in the ninth paragraph of Neil Steinberg’s laudatory obit was the answer: Speer was “a mentor and a friend” of Michael Ferro, chairman of the Sun-Times’ parent company, Wrapports LLC. (In 2006 Speer bought a software company Ferro owned, Click Commerce, for $292 million.)
Sources said Ferro personally ordered the Page 1 splash, overriding the judgment of his editors. It was a flagrant abuse of his power as publisher and yet another example of Ferro’s ego undermining the credibility of the paper. Hiring wannabe columnist Jenny McCarthy was merely foolish. But dictating news coverage is shameful and disgusting.
* More recently from Feder…
In recent weeks, sources said, Ferro has been exerting pressure on editors regarding coverage of Rauner, who held a 10 percent stake in Wrapports before he became a candidate for governor.
Rauner campaign complains about story and reporter, paper runs story anyway, apparently more complaints result, paper sidelines McKinney, Mckinney brought back on the job after five days, paper abandons years-old policy and endorses Rauner and nobody else.
I’ll have more on that endorsement a bit later today.
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* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
You’re not going to believe this, and I didn’t either: For the first time, all-powerful Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan is not dominating the spending race this year.
I ran some campaign contributions numbers through the Illinois State Board of Elections’ website. When I finished I was so startled that I ran them again, just to make sure. Then I ran them again.
Click here to read the rest before commenting, please. Let’s transfer this load to their servers for a while.
/snark
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Down, but not out
Monday, Oct 20, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’m not sure what happened to the site this morning, but we are slowly coming back online. Please stop hitting your refresh button to give us a little breather here.
…Adding… I’m told there was a power issue at our data center. Things are slowly coming back to life.
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* From Bruce Rauner’s campaign manager Chip Englander…
We prefer our interactions with news organizations be kept between us and that outlet. That remains true for this story as well. That said, since you are reporting on this matter, here are the facts the campaign presented the Sun-Times’ editors as well as the facts on related matters:
· The allegations were tossed out in court and sworn depositions contradict the allegations. Given those facts, publishing the story was irresponsible.
· One of the reporters had an extraordinary conflict of interest – married to a Democrat operative with deep connections to an attack group that has spent millions attacking Bruce Rauner.
· 24 hours before the story Democrats were already polling on the attack, using language that mirrored what the Sun Times had asked the campaign.
· The campaign asked the Sun Times that if it was running the story, in the interest of transparency, it ought to at least disclose to its readers the conflict of interest. The Society of Professional Journalists Code of Ethics regarding conflicts of interest or the appearance stresses transparency. This request was rejected.
· After the story was published, we asked for some important clarifications and corrections to the story. These were rejected.
· No one reached out to Mr. Ferro.
· Fortunately, voters have seen through these false allegations. New poll out yesterday has us beating Quinn by 2%.
The bottom line is the campaign followed all proper channels to combat the misleading and inaccurate story prior to its publication. Our request to editors was simply that the reporter’s deep connections to an attack group that has spent millions attacking Bruce Rauner be disclosed by the paper in accordance with the Society of Professional Journalists Code of Ethics.
For reference below is more information on the deep connections that we believe warranted a disclosure in the paper:
· The website of Adelstein|Liston, the advertising firm she co-owns, lists ads attacking Bruce Rauner as examples of the firm’s work on its website.
· Jemma Productions, the production company paid over $600,000 to make ads attacking Bruce Rauner, lists her business partner as its proprietor and is housed within the same office suite as Adelstein|Liston.
· Illinois Board of Elections filings indicate that Adelstein|Liston and Jemma Productions are one in the same. In her third quarter report, Democratic state house candidate Kate Cloonen listed $128,800 in payments to “Adelstein|Liston Jemma Productions.”
Again, in the interest of transparency, the campaign asked the Sun-Times to disclose to its readers the conflict of interest. The Society of Professional Journalists Code of Ethics states that reporters should “avoid conflicts of interest, real or perceived. Disclose unavoidable conflicts.” Despite this, our request was rejected. Ironically, in its endorsement of Bruce Rauner, the Sun-Times disclosed that Bruce was once a minority investor in the parent company that owns the Sun-Times.
As the Rauner campaign surely knows by now, Liston is not doing any campaign consulting in Illinois, even though the firm she belongs to is. Rauner’s folks are keeping that attack going at their own risk. But, hey, I’m always happy to post their stuff.
*** UPDATE *** From the Quinn campaign…
Once again Bruce Rauner is blaming everybody but himself and refusing to take responsibility for his own actions.
The irony here is that Mr. Rauner got into this mess by bullying a woman executive and then he paid $500,000 to make the lawsuit go away. Now here he is again, going after another woman executive.
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New Quinn ad hits Rauner on nursing homes
Saturday, Oct 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Oof…
* Script…
There are few things more terrifying than an elderly person alone and defenseless in a nursing home, being victimized by abuse.
An investigation into Bruce Rauner’s nursing home business uncovered staff cutbacks to maximize profits.
Juries found that helpless seniors had died of neglect and abuse.
And all Rauner could say was, “That’s what happens occasionally in nursing homes.”
Really?
That’s what happens?
Oh, man. It’s on.
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* Dave McKinney disappeared from the Sun-Times for several days after the paper ran his piece about Bruce Rauner’s alleged threat to “bury” a former female CEO. Crain’s has some of the back-story…
A Chicago Sun-Times reporter hired former federal prosecutor Patrick Collins to investigate whether the campaign of Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner tried to interfere with his employment after the newspaper ran a story unfavorable to the politician.
Mr. Collins said in an interview with Crain’s that the Rauner campaign attempted to retaliate against Sun-Times political reporter Dave McKinney after the paper ran the story about Mr. Rauner allegedly verbally threatening a top executive of a company controlled by Mr. Rauner’s onetime investment firm. Mr. Rauner denied that report through a spokesman. […]
The Rauner campaign attempted to have the Sun-Times take action against Mr. McKinney because of what it alleged were conflicts of interest stemming from Mr. McKinney’s marriage to Democratic media consultant Ann Liston, Mr. Collins said.
Mr. McKinney and Ms. Liston were married in April, but Mr. Collins said the couple made arrangements earlier in the year at each of their jobs to create barriers within their work so that their relationship wouldn’t present conflicts of interest for Mr. McKinney, who is the paper’s bureau chief in Springfield.
“Dave McKinney has a body of work as a dogged, but fair and impartial reporter and what happened recently was an attempt to unfairly besmirch Dave’s reputation and he has asked me to evaluate whether there was an improper interference with Dave’s employment relationship with the Sun-Times,” Mr. Collins said in an interview. […]
Just hours before the Sun-Times story went to press, the Rauner campaign attempted to quash the piece by bringing up Ms. Liston’s political work with Sun-Times management even though Mr. McKinney has been covering the campaign for months, according to Mr. Collins. Mr. Collins didn’t have details on who in the Rauner campaign contacted the Sun-Times and who at the newspaper was contacted.
Mr. McKinney has also written stories that were critical of incumbent Democratic candidate Gov. Pat Quinn, specifically his involvement with the troubled state-funded Neighborhood Recovery Initiative.
In recent days, Mr. McKinney was inexplicably absent from his statehouse beat for five days despite one of the hottest gubernatorial races in recent memory
The Rauner people went after McKinney, then all of a sudden the paper decided to endorse the guy. What a coinkidink.
Disgusting.
And, by the way, Dave’s marriage to Ann had zero to do with this story. McKinney has been beating the Quinn administration over their freaking heads about the NRI investigation all year (to the point where I’ve criticized him in the Fax). Any suggestion that he was leaning Democratic is absolutely ridiculous and insane. And the decision to sideline him, to my mind, was purely about politics.
I have my own Sun-Times Rauner story, which I plan to share with subscribers on Monday.
…Adding… Liston is not a lobbyist. She’s a flak. Big difference.
*** UPDATE *** Chicago Sun-Times Publisher/Editor-in-Chief Jim Kirk claimed to Crain’s that no action was taken against McKinney, but did say this in an updated Crain’s piece…
“Mr. Rauner’s campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf did level allegations with me that proved inaccurate and spurious,” Mr. Kirk wrote. “Out of an abundance of caution, we did review this matter and we are convinced Dave’s wife Ann Liston receives no financial benefit from any Illinois political campaign because of the extraordinary steps they’ve taken to establish business safeguards. Dave’s body of work during this campaign, including the ground-breaking stories on the investigation involving Gov. Pat Quinn and the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative, demonstrates the hard-nosed reporting he has done on both campaigns. Both Dave and Ann are conscientious, ethical and among the best at their professions.”
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[Bumped up for visibility]
* Brooke Anderson from the Quinn campaign…
“It’s bizarre. They said they weren’t going to endorse and suddenly - as billionaire Bruce Rauner falls behind in the polls - they are changing their policy. There’s a lot of concern out there that the new owners - who until recently included Bruce Rauner - are operating the paper in a way that is contrary to the independent journalistic standards of the Chicago Sun-Times.
“Unfortunately it appears that Bruce Rauner’s financial influence is still being felt. Any endorsement is clouded by the fact that Mr. Rauner was a part-owner of the paper which abruptly reversed its position when he fell behind in the polls.”
*** UPDATE 1 *** Robert Feder…
The decision to endorse Rauner and no other candidates on the November ballot is certain to fuel cynicism about the motives of Michael Ferro Jr., chairman of Sun-Times Media parent company Wrapports LLC.
In recent weeks, sources said, Ferro has been exerting pressure on editors regarding coverage of Rauner, who held a 10 percent stake in Wrapports before he became a candidate for governor.
There is a lot more to this back-story, and we’ll just have to see if it emerges.
*** UPDATE 2 *** The endorsement is out, and it’s a doozy. Oh. My. Goodness….
Rauner has a detailed campaign platform, his “Jobs and Growth Agenda,” to do just that. It reads like a smart business plan. We invite you to read it at suntimes.com.
The Beatles were wrong. Money can buy you love. And blindness.
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Reader comments closed for the weekend
Friday, Oct 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’m assuming that a certain someone will dump a huge amount of money into his campaign fund later today, just like he does most Friday afternoons, so watch the middle column or click here for the Tribune’s invaluable campaign contribution Twitter feed to monitor any updates. I’m done for the day.
Mick and the boys will play us out…
The change has come
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Readers to Sun-Times: Tell us how to vote!
Friday, Oct 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’m trying really hard not to smirk…
We will plunge back in Sunday with an endorsement in the race for governor, and we will make endorsements in the February Chicago municipal elections and other key local races.
Two years and nine months ago, we announced we would no longer make endorsements, explaining that we had come to believe they feed a perception of a hidden bias throughout a newspaper. The Chicago Sun-Times has always taken great care to keep its news coverage separate from its editorials and opinion pieces, but we are sensitive to the fact that we operate within an increasingly fragmented and politicized media market.
Our readers have taken a different view. They have told us they understand the difference between the independence exhibited in the news coverage from opinions expressed in the editorials. We appreciated this feedback and understanding.
In the years and months since our decision to stop making endorsements, readers have told us constantly that they found great value in them and wished we would make them again. Our endorsements, they said, offered another frame of reference, fresh analysis and insight. Even when they disagreed with an endorsement, readers said, it was of help to them in exercising the most fundamental right of a democratic republic — deciding who will represent them. For every reader who has commended us for standing on the sidelines, seemingly hundreds of others have asked, “Who’s gonna tell me how to vote for …?”
They already telegraphed their gubernatorial endorsement yesterday, without mentioning that a certain someone was part of the group that bought the Sun-Times a while back. He has since sold his ownership stake, of course, so no problem there.
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Quinn demands Rauner unseal deposition
Friday, Oct 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Gov. Pat Quinn jumped to his mother’s defense Friday and urged GOP rival Bruce Rauner to heed her advice to tone down his attacks on the gubernatorial campaign trail.
But while preaching civility, Quinn also used the comments from his mother, Eileen Quinn, in a Chicago Sun-Times interview Thursday to launch a lengthy new attack on Rauner and his alleged interactions with a former female executive in his one-time business empire who alleged in a now-settled lawsuit that Rauner threatened her. Rauner has forcefully denied the businesswoman’s claims. […]
“I think she gave him some good advice. It is never, ever right to use threatening language toward any woman anywhere in this state or this country,” Quinn said. […]
Quinn on Friday renewed his demand that Rauner release his full deposition. The governor also reacted to Rauner’s contention in his Thursday interview with the Sun-Times that GTCR and an associated law firm settled with Kirk and others for $511,000 to end the case because “we’re nice folks.”
“I don’t think it’s ever nice to use threatening language towards people who are working for your company and threatening their future, and their livelihood and their family, and paying $500,000 to make the lawsuit go away. I think the nice thing to do is unseal the deposition of Mr. Rauner in that very case and let’s see what’s in there,” Quinn said.
* Listen…
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* From a press release…
The administration of Governor Pat Quinn, the Illinois Workers’ Compensation Commission and the Department of Insurance (DOI) announced that a national study has provided additional evidence that Illinois’ historic workers’ compensation reforms are delivering major savings for businesses across the state. The biennial report by the Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services shows Illinois recorded the sharpest reductions in workers’ compensation insurance premiums in the nation over the last two years. […]
The Oregon study - http://www.oregon.gov/DCBS/docs/news_releases/2014/workers-comp-rate-study-14.pdf - ranks all 50 states and the District of Columbia by the amount insurance premiums rose or dropped in the last two years. It highlights that Illinois had the steepest reduction in workers’ compensation rates when compared to the median, with an estimated rate drop of 24 percentage points between 2012 and 2014 (see chart below), compared to the national median reduction of only 2 percent.
The report shows Illinois employers workers’ compensation premiums dropped from $2.83 per $100 of payroll in 2012 to $2.35 in 2014. This means hundreds of millions of dollars in savings for Illinois businesses.
All good. No doubt about it. The trend is positive. But look at the actual rankings by clicking here and you’ll see Illinois has the 7th highest premiums in the nation. That’s down from 4th highest in 2012, but they’re still way too high.
* Meanwhile, from another press release…
The Illinois unemployment rate fell in September for the seventh consecutive month to reach 6.6 percent while employers created +19,300 jobs, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security. The data is seasonally adjusted.
The drop from 9.1 percent one year ago marks, for the second consecutive month, the largest year-over-year decline since 1984. The last time the rate was lower than 6.6 percent was in June 2008 when it was 6.3 percent. Also, there are +69,000 more jobs than one year ago.
“Unemployment rates continue to fall because private-sector employers are averaging more than 5,400 new jobs each month since the Illinois economy began to improve,” IDES Director Jay Rowell said. “Meanwhile, help wanted ads for full-time work continue to grow and indicate employers expect their need for more workers to remain strong.”
September job growth was led by Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+6,500), Professional and Business Services (+6,000), and Other Services (+5,500). Manufacturing (-2,800), and Leisure and Hospitality payrolls ( 1,100) declined.
Employers added +300,700 private sector jobs since job creation returned to Illinois in February 2010. Leading sectors are Professional and Business Services (+126,800); Education and Health Services (+60,900); Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+56,100); and Leisure and Hospitality (+36,200). Government remains the job loss leader, shedding -21,500 positions during the same period.
The unemployment rate also is in line with other economic indicators. First-time jobless claims have been trending lower for the past four years and in September the number of monthly claims was at its lowest level since 2000. Numbers from the independent Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine Index show that Illinois employers in September advertised for nearly 212,000 jobs and 85 percent sought full-time work.
Those lost manufacturing jobs are not a good thing, and it’s been trending that way for months.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From Bruce Rauner…
“Any monthly job growth is welcome news, but under Pat Quinn, Illinois’ unemployment rate continues to trail most of our neighboring states and far too many people remain out of work. Now, we’ve learned that Pat Quinn wants to make things even tougher on hard-working Illinoisans by enacting another massive tax hike next month.
“Since Pat Quinn became governor Illinois has lost more than 48,000 manufacturing jobs, including more than 2,500 last month alone. The people of Illinois have suffered enough under Pat Quinn and it’s time for him to go. I have a plan to lower taxes and create more jobs so our economy is booming again. I’m eager to get to work for you.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** From Brooke Anderson of the Quinn campaign…
We’re not surprised that Bruce Rauner continues to root for the Illinois economy to fail. The truth is, Illinois’ improving economy doesn’t fit the false narrative he’s made the foundation of his campaign.
Jobs are up and unemployment is down. Unemployment is now at its lowest point in more than 6 years… more people are working today than when Governor Quinn took office.
In the last 2 months alone, Illinois has created 40,000 jobs. In the last 6 months, Illinois has seen the steepest decline in unemployment of any state in the nation.
Bruce Rauner just can’t handle the truth. Having a Governor who makes the tough decisions is leading our economy in the right direction.
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Question of the day
Friday, Oct 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As you may or may not know, the Chicago Tribune refused to endorse either attorney general candidate this week…
In her first run for statewide office, Lisa Madigan championed the notion of an aggressive attorney general. With then-Gov. George Ryan’s administration under federal investigation for widespread corruption — he would be indicted the following year and eventually imprisoned — Madigan repeatedly pledged to clean up state government:
“All too often in recent years we have seen our current attorney general sit on the sidelines in the face of mounting evidence of government corruption,” Madigan wrote to the Tribune that year, describing her plan to create a Public Integrity Division within the attorney general’s office. She exhaustively reassured voters she would not be conflicted in her role as attorney general with her father serving as speaker of the Illinois House. Allegations of wrongdoing “must be investigated, no matter if they involve Democrats, Republicans or even my father,” she said.
Twelve years later, Madigan is imprecise about her noticeable mission shift: While she can point to a few cases where her office has pursued public corruption, she has largely focused on civil matters. State’s attorneys are better equipped to prosecute corruption cases, and she has occasionally lent a hand to them, she says. She explains that she doesn’t have the authority to impanel a grand jury; legislation to empower her office with that tool has been stuck in the General Assembly. You’d almost think some legislators don’t want an attorney general to have that power to meddl …. um, to investigate.
To categorically accept that explanation for her office’s devotion to civil matters rather than criminal is to ignore Madigan’s own promises — and some of her early actions in office. Those were her words, vowing to pursue public corruption wherever it led. Those were her accusations leveled at her predecessor, Jim Ryan, who was “too passive” about fighting corruption. Those were her actions when she began investigating wrongdoing in Rod Blagojevich’s administration. That was her office that blocked a casino in Rosemont due to concerns about the potential for mob influence.
* The Question: Should AG Madigan more vigorously investigate and prosecute corruption? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
polls
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September 23 through October 15?
Friday, Oct 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I don’t know why anybody would publish poll results that include data as old as 25 days, but whatever, here are the numbers…
Democratic Illinois Governor Pat Quinn enjoys a two and one-half point lead among registered voters over Republican challenger Bruce Rauner, according to the latest statewide poll from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
But when likely voters are asked for their preference, Rauner holds the two point lead.
“It’s a tied race,” said David Yepsen, director of the Institute. “No one can predict from these numbers who will win. It’s likely to be close on election night and every vote will be important.”
• Among registered voters, the survey shows 41.2 percent favoring or leading toward Quinn and 38.6 percent favoring or leaning toward Rauner. Libertarian Chad Grimm had 4.5 percent supporting or leaning toward his candidacy.
• But among the 691 respondents considered to be likely voters, it’s Rauner who holds a slim lead: He gets 42.4 percent, Quinn has 40.7 percent and 3.0 percent are for Grimm.
The full sample of registered voters has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points. The smaller likely voter sample has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points. That means both leads are within margins for error, hence a statistical tie.
Among the 1,006 registered voters surveyed, Republicans held the edge in voter enthusiasm, with half (49.8 percent) saying they were more enthusiastic to vote than usual, compared with barely a third (31.4 percent) of Democrats and Independents (29.5 percent).
On the other hand, Democrats held the edge in the generic vote for US House of Representatives, with 46.6% favoring or leaning toward the Democratic House candidate and just 33.1% leaning toward the Republican candidate. Among likely voters, the margin shrank to 43.3 percent for the generic Democrat and 37.6 percent for the Republican.
“If every vote is important, then Republicans have the easier turnout task, since their folks are clearly more excited about the election,” Yepsen said.
Discuss.
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That’s life, baby
Friday, Oct 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Eric Scott doesn’t like the practice of using clips of TV news anchors/reporters in political ads…
The Republican candidate for governor, Bruce Rauner, is now running a commercial featuring local TV news anchor lead-ins to negative stories about his Democratic opponent. It shows three clips from newscasts that aired on stations in the Champaign-Decatur and Rockford TV markets where anchors are reading copy leading into stories, but all you see and hear is a quick sentence that is taken out of context when shown in a political ad. Worse yet, the video clips are not actually what viewers saw when these newscasts aired live, but post-produced recordings and slick video editing added some “darkened graininess” and quick-flash negative imagery to give it more of a dark and scary look for further manipulation — all trick, no treat.
But I raise the red flag for the much larger issue at hand, which deals with trashing journalistic ethics and tarnishing the hard-earned reputations of those unwillingly being featured in these ads. Unfortunately, these media professionals have absolutely no control over their appearances or the power to stop this practice from happening.
At the end of the day, journalists must always maintain their credibility as a trustworthy and objective source of information. You want to watch a certain TV newscast or read stories from your favorite news source because you want to get the details from people you trust — you want to hear it from them first.
By leveraging video clips of TV news anchors and reporters for political gain, candidates and their campaigns are wilfully discrediting these journalists in using their images and voices to suggest they are endorsing one candidate by criticizing the opponent. This is different from campaigns showing newspaper headlines and mast head logos in ads — those ads usually reflect actual newspaper endorsements and don’t use individual reporters’ names or images to strengthen their point.
He goes on to upbraid the Quinn campaign for using the now-infamous Carol Marin clip in the “bury her” ad.
Meh.
* The “Fair Use Doctrine” allows campaign to use clips of what TV reporters say in their ads, just as it allows people like me to use those same clips right here.
As a result, everyone in TV and radio knows - or should know - that whatever they say could be used by a campaign.
* NBC 5 posted this on its website after the Quinn ad began airing…
NBC 5 strongly objects to use of our material in a campaign ad, and we asked the Quinn campaign to not use it.
NBC 5 is required by law to air campaign commercials bought by bona-fide candidates for public office so you will see it on our air.
We want to make clear that this commercial is not an endorsement of Governor Quinn by Carol Marin or NBC 5. We will continue to work hard to make sure we cover both candidates for governor fairly and objectively.
And that’s as it should be.
* The Rauner campaign has been using one of my Crain’s Chicago Business columns in its entirety as a fundraising tool for months. I haven’t objected for a couple of reasons. First, the copyright issue is up to Crain’s to deal with, and secondly, those mailers probably put my column in front of a lot more eyeballs than Crain’s did. I’m not ashamed of that piece, in fact, I’m pretty proud of it.
I really hate it when campaigns use stuff from behind my subscriber firewall, and I often make a big private stink about that. Fortunately, such behavior has been kept to a minimum this year. And I was pretty darned surprised when a candidate in the primary used one of my comments beneath a blog post to attack his opponent, but whatever. That’s life and it re-taught me a lesson: If you don’t want your words used by a campaign against somebody else, then watch what you say.
/rant
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Sparring partners
Friday, Oct 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Not surprisingly, the City Club debate between treasurer candidates Tom Cross and Mike Frerichs this week was heated at times…
Yikes.
If you go to the 40-minute mark of this video, you’ll see the two men go toe-to-toe over whether Bruce Rauner’s budget proposal is balanced or not.
* From the Sun-Times…
Cross, who has promised if he wins to fight the General Assembly if it passes unbalanced budgets, made his comment after Frerichs asked him about Rauner’s spending proposals.
“Bruce Rauner’s put forward a budget plan that’s been widely criticized by economists, by journalists, by political scientists, as being out of balance,” Frerichs said. “Would you sue Bruce Rauner’s budget? Would you call that budget out as being out of balance?”
Cross said he would, if that turns out to be the case.
“If, in fact, Bruce Rauner’s the governor, and when he actually lays out a budget that’s passed, and it’s not balanced, you’re darn right I’ll take him to court,” Cross said.
Even so, Cross still dodged the central question, which is whether he thinks Rauner’s proposal is balanced. It ain’t.
* Moving right along…
In the treasurer’s race, Tom Cross, the former state House minority leader, had collected $331,000 over the past three months, spending $226,000 and leaving $614,000 on hand.
A big chunk of that $614K is now gone because Cross reserved a bunch of cable TV buys last month. Cross has reported raising another $67,500 since the first of this month.
* Frerichs reported raising $423,624 in the third quarter, spent $1.3 million (TV buys) and had $413,563.22 cash on hand. He has reported raising another $36,001 since the first of the month.
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* Gov. Quinn’s mom has been making the media rounds lately. NBC 5 interviewed her earlier this week, and the Sun-Times got access to her yesterday…
“I’m a little affected, I must say,” by how [Bruce Rauner’s] campaign has portrayed her son, she said. “It’s a very harsh campaign. We’ve been through several. But I’ve never been through one like this.” […]
“I would say, I think that you should modify your tone and your language. I think you have a very poor way of addressing people.” [she responded when asked what she would say to Rauner] […]
“I’m horrified,” Rauner said Thursday, laughing. “At least what I say is true. Unlike him…
“We gotta deal with facts. and we got to hit those hard. And if his mom is mad at me for trying to get those facts out, you know, so be it.”
Rauner’s right to laugh that one off. Of course Quinn’s mom is gonna say nice things about her son and harsh things about his opponent. But the “so be it” line is not exactly nice.
Full video of the interview is here.
* The paper also posted a photo of the governor as a young boy…
Caption?
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When a “fact check” is neither
Friday, Oct 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This could be the worst AP story of the 2014 campaign…
Whether education funding in Illinois rose or fell under Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn depends on whose money you’re talking about, and during what time period.
The question has surfaced repeatedly in the heated campaign between Quinn and his challenger, Republican businessman Bruce Rauner. In two televised debates, Rauner has said money for schools dropped by a half-billion dollars under Quinn. In turn, Quinn insists it actually rose nearly $500 million since he assumed office in 2009.
Determining who is right depends on whether you count an influx of federal stimulus dollars in the 2010 fiscal year, the first budget that the Quinn administration crafted. […]
But Rauner’s campaign focuses on there being less money today for schools than six years ago — suggesting Quinn should have come up with funding to replace the lost stimulus funds.
* Wait a second: “Rauner has said money for schools dropped by a half-billion dollars under Quinn”?
Um, no. Rauner has said that Quinn “cut” school funding by half a billion dollars. And he’s been using the word “cut” since April, and even used the word in a TV ad this summer.
But Quinn couldn’t “cut” federal money that expired on its own. That’s an impossibility.
The AP has allowed Rauner’s campaign to redefine the terms of the debate after having been thoroughly debunked by everyone who has taken a close look at this, including Reboot, myself, the Civic Federation and now Eric Zorn.
If you’re gonna “fact check” a candidate, then fact check what the candidate has been saying for six months.
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* Sun-Times…
Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Rauner on Thursday defended his role in a case brought against him by a former female CEO that’s been the subject of a TV attack ad, saying his firm settled part of the case “because we’re nice folks.”
The ad cites a court deposition claiming Rauner, through an intermediary, communicated a threat to “bankrupt” and “bury her,” if the CEO filed a lawsuit against him and his Chicago-based investment firm, GTCR. […]
Rauner acknowledged a portion of the case with former Leapsource CEO Christine Kirk was settled. However, he said it wasn’t an admission of wrongdoing but: “because we’re nice folks. We treat people well,” Rauner said. “This is for legal expenses, is nothin’.”
Rauner outright denied that he ever communicated a threat and said that sworn depositions in the case contradict one another.
“In my deposition, I wasn’t even asked about it. This is, you know what, lawsuits contain a lot of false accusations,” Rauner said. “That’s what a lot of lawsuits often have. This is false, it’s a false accusation.”
* Quinn campaign react…
The Chicago Sun-Times is reporting today that Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner is claiming he settled allegations that he threatened to “bury” a female CEO and her family “because we’re nice folks.”
Rauner again mischaracterized the LeapSource allegations, contained in a lawsuit that he settled for more than $500,000, as frivolous.
But the attorney for the female CEO - who claimed that Rauner threatened to make her “radioactive” if she ever took legal action against him - stood by the sworn statements, saying, “The judge never said it was frivolous. The judge never said these statements quoted in the complaint were not true.”
Further, the judge confirmed that Rauner and his partners played “hardball” every step of the way. […]
Below is the statement of Quinn for Illinois Deputy Press Secretary Izabela Miltko:
“If Bruce Rauner is so nice and has nothing to hide, he should nicely release his deposition now.
“Nice guys do not threaten women. Ever.
“How Mr. Rauner treated a woman executive at his business is information that the public has a right to know and also reflects the temperament he’d bring to the Governor’s Office.
“The voters have no reason to take Bruce Rauner at his word about what happened in this case involving his threatening a woman. His deposition should be unsealed immediately to let the people of Illinois hear his testimony under oath in this very troubling case.”
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“The Myth of the Incumbent 50% Rule”
Friday, Oct 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Nate Silver…
1) It is extremely common for an incumbent come back to win re-election while having less than 50 percent of the vote in early polls.
2) In comparison to early polls, there is no demonstrable tendency for challengers to pick up a larger share of the undecided vote than incumbents.
3) Incumbents almost always get a larger share of the actual vote than they do in early polls (as do challengers). They do not “get what they get in the tracking”; they almost always get more.
4) However, the incumbent’s vote share in early polls may in fact be a better predictor of the final margin in the race than the opponent’s vote share. That is, it may be proper to focus more on the incumbent’s number than the opponent’s when evaluating such a poll — even though it is extremely improper to assume that the incumbent will not pick up any additional percentage of the vote.
Go read the rest for his research.
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* From a press release…
Former Congressman and Congressional candidate Bobby Schilling (R-Colona) is calling for an immediate halt of commercial air traffic in and out of Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, the three countries where the Ebola virus is out of control, and any new countries that experience an uncontrolled outbreak.
“I have been constantly amazed by the ineptitude of President Obama and international agencies who keep saying it would be counter-productive to halt flights in and out of Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia because there would be no way to get world health experts and medical supplies into and out of those countries,” Schilling said.
“We must protect our population, first and foremost. The answer is to immediately halt commercial air traffic with hundreds of civilian passengers who could then spread the virus all over our country and the world,” Schilling continued. “Instead, we should be using U.S. government small planes for Center for Disease Control (CDC) personnel and technicians who can wear masks and hazmat suits on the way out. A small plane with a few experts and medical supplies is infinitely better able to have both the passengers and the plane itself controlled and quarantined upon arrival.”
“It absolutely defies common sense why this hasn’t been done already,” Schilling said.
Schilling noted that neighboring countries Nigeria and Senegal have stamped out their Ebola outbreaks in small part by sealing their borders with Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. In this case, the world is like a hospital—those who have deadly contagious diseases are put in isolation until they are out of danger of spreading the disease. The same needs to be done with countries. It seems to have been part of the solution for Nigeria and Senegal.
Nigeria had 20 Ebola cases and eight deaths with 900 people potentially exposed. They got to business with a massive sense of urgency from the beginning with outstanding epidemiological detective work, and they closed their borders with countries where the outbreak was uncontrolled.
Schilling also said he has heard from numerous doctors and nurses here at home who are alarmed at the very slow progress in developing protocols on what to do if confronted by the need to treat a potential Ebola victim.
“Our Administration and healthcare leaders need to work around the clock until this vital planning is done because the Ebola virus is already here,” concluded Schilling.
* Polls show that an overwhelming majority agrees with this opinion, but a new Washington Post poll finds a majority has at least some confidence in the federal government to handle the situation…
* Kent Sepkowitz urges calm…
The same large sigh of relief should be heard from for the large health-care worker staff at the beleaguered Dallas hospital where Duncan was seen on Sept. 25 (when he was sent home) and again on Sept. 28, when he arrived by ambulance quite ill. They too seem to be in the clear. And the people on the airplane with Duncan through Brussels and Washington, D.C. are also in the clear.
Speaking of air travel, the single most important epidemiologic fact arguing for the public’s safety is this: Patrick Sawyer, the American who flew from Liberia to Nigeria while sick with Ebola, spread infection to absolutely no one who shared the plane with him. This information should go a long way to assuring those Frontier Airlines passengers who accompanied the second infected nurse from Cleveland to Dallas this week.
And still more: Spain, where a nurse caring for two repatriated patients dying of Ebola herself developed the disease, has not seen a second case related to these men’s care or the ill nurse’s, despite what has been reported by local groups as a complete lack of preparation and appropriate supplies to minimize the risk of transmission.
Despite a raging, unconscionable epidemic in West Africa, no other cases other than Duncan have appeared unexpectedly outside of Africa. Europe: Zero cases. USA: No further cases three weeks since Duncan’s illness began. Obviously past performance does not predict future returns and the world is not out of the danger zone but for now, the infected traveler is a rare event.
In other words, the rules of transmission in the community are exactly as promised with calm assurance weeks and months ago; and, conversely, the risk of caring for the super sick is every bit as harrowing and dangerous as feared when all of this began.
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